21:06 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 35 · price 0.6943
LH/LL chain from Sep 9 high, 3-week 0.6894–0.7013 box.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 Sep 9 top, holding below a now-falling EMA(50) near 0.7029 since late September. Over the last three weeks it has compressed into a 0.6894–0.7013 box. Wednesday's push to 0.7013 met a rejection at the 0.70 handle and EMA(20) after hot US CPI, and Thursday's AU jobs miss drove a fresh swing low at 0.6894 before a partial Friday recovery.
Support: 0.6894, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7013, 0.7029, 0.7140
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 0.6894 swing low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the 0.6865 june low. Market commentary frames the 0.6890–0.6900 floor as a head-and-shoulders neckline.
- A daily close above the 0.7013 rejection high and the ema50 near 0.7029 would break the descending line from the Sep 9 high and neutralise the downtrend read; the 0.7140 lower high is the next pivot.
- The 38.2% retrace of the Sep–Oct leg sits near 0.7025, overlapping the ema50 and capping the box.
- Late-October FOMC (hike odds ~42%), Oct 20 US housing data and the Oct 22 AU PMIs could materially shift this read.
- RSI near 35 is soft but not oversold; a sub-30 print alongside a break of the swing low would mark stretched conditions.