AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum fading in early Asia · RSI 56 · price 0.70062
Post-breakout consolidation above 0.7000, lower high at 0.7013.
NY broke 0.7000 to a 0.7017 day high on the softer USD and US-Iran deal hopes. The pullback held the 0.6995 ny low near the 61.8% fib. Early Asia pushed to a 0.7013 session high, a lower high, and is now fading toward the 0.7000 psych handle with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6995
Resistance: 0.7013, 0.7017
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.7000 psych and the 0.6995 ny low would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 0.7017 day high voids the lower-high read off the 0.7013 session high
US-Iran deal headlines and oil remain the main USD driver into Asia hours
23:31 UTC
Uptrend above 0.7000, pausing in early Asia · RSI 61 · price 0.70082
NY breakout held, round number retested, higher low at rollover.
The softer USD drove a NY breakout through the 0.7000 round number to a 0.70169 NY high. Late NY retested that level, with the pullback holding above the 0.69947 NY low, and the 0.69974 rollover dip drew demand. Early Asia has printed 0.70131 and is drifting back toward the fib 50% near 0.7005. RSI(14) sits near 61.
Support: 0.70053, 0.7000, 0.69947
Resistance: 0.70131, 0.70169
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.7000 round number reopens the 0.69947 NY low
M15 close above the 0.70131 Asia high puts the 0.70169 NY high back in play
US-Iran headlines remain the USD wildcard overnight; no scheduled releases in the next 8h
23:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia drift · RSI 63 · price 0.7009
Higher low at 0.6999 after the rollover, higher high at 0.7013; holding above 0.7000.
NY's spike to the 0.7017 high on the Pending Home Sales miss faded into a 0.6995–0.7003 range. Post-rollover buyers then reclaimed the 0.7000 round number and printed a session high at 0.7013 in early Asia. RSI(14) is near 63, and ATR around 3 pips reflects thin pre-Tokyo trade.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6995
Resistance: 0.70131, 0.70169
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.7000 round number returns price to the NY range and stalls the higher-low chain
Failure at the 0.6995 ny range low would mark a lower low and undo the breakout
Clearing the 0.7017 ny high puts the 0.7015 range-top zone from the digest behind price
Holding the 38.2–50% fib of the rollover leg (0.7007–0.7005) keeps the HH/HL sequence intact
US-Iran deal headlines remain the main USD-side driver during Asia hours
23:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia push · RSI 66 · price 0.70095
Higher lows off rollover low, below NY high.
The NY spike to the 0.70169 ny high on soft US housing data, with Pending Home Sales sharply missing, was rejected back to 0.6995 before a 0.6995–0.7003 range formed, and the early Asia session retested the 0.7000 round number from the 0.69974 rollover low. Higher lows have since lifted price to a 0.70131 asia high, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69974, 0.69947
Resistance: 0.70131, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70169 ny high breaks the session's upper boundary
Failure to hold the 0.7000 round number returns price to the NY range and exposes the 0.69974 rollover low
Break below the 0.69947 ny low invalidates the higher-low sequence and the rising support
US-Iran headlines via oil remain the main USD swing factor during Asia hours
Higher lows off 0.6997 rollover low, retesting NY spike high.
Early Asia climb off the 0.6997 rollover low has lifted AUDUSD to an asia high of 0.7013, retesting the 0.7017 ny high from the NY spike that faded to the 61.8% fib at 0.6995. The higher lows line from that NY pullback is intact, and RSI(14) near 71 is hot but not extreme in thin post-rollover trade, with the softer USD on US-Iran deal hopes and weak US housing data behind the bid.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69974, 0.69947
Resistance: 0.70131, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7017 ny high clears the NY spike top and the 0.7015 range top
Slip back under the 0.7000 round number and the 0.6997 rollover low breaks the higher lows sequence
Loss of the 0.6995 61.8% fib re-opens the London low area
US-Iran headlines remain the main USD swing factor during Asia hours
22:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia · RSI 70 · price 0.70104
Higher lows since NY low; Asia break above NY range.
The 0.7017 NY high, set on the soft US housing data, faded back into a 0.6995–0.7003 range for the rest of NY. Early Asia has lifted price out of that range on a broadly softer USD, with higher lows from the 0.6995 NY low intact and the 0.7012 Asia high just under the NY high. RSI(14) is near 70 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips on a thin Asia tape.
Support: 0.70035, 0.69947, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70115, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7003 ny range top would mark the Asia move as a false break
M15 close above the 0.7017 ny high clears the 0.7015 area that has capped the pair
Loss of the 0.6995 ny low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.6983 london low
US-Iran headlines remain the main USD driver and could reverse the Asia move
Higher lows since 0.6970 Asia dip; tight post-spike range 0.6995–0.7007.
NY spiked to the 0.70169 ny high as the USD softened on housing misses and US-Iran deal hopes. Price then faded into a 0.6995–0.7004 range that held the 38.2% day fib of the 0.6970–0.7017 advance, with psych 0.7000 respected. Early Asia bars are pressing the 0.7007 post-rollover high in thin liquidity.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6995, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70072, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70169 ny high breaks the post-spike range and clears the 0.7015 range top
Failure to hold psych 0.7000 puts the 0.6995 ny range low and 38.2% day fib back in play
Loss of 0.6995 exposes the 0.69825 london low near the 61.8% day fib, breaking the higher-low chain
US-Iran headlines remain the main USD driver into the Asia session
21:46 UTC
Sideways after faded NY spike · RSI 57 · price 0.70033
Tight 0.6995–0.7005 range below NY high.
A NY spike after the weak US Pending Home Sales print ran from the 0.69825 London low to a 0.70169 NY high, then met rejection. Since then price has compressed in a 0.6995–0.7005 range around the 0.7000 psych level, with dips holding near the 61.8% retracement of that leg. Early Asia session, thin after rollover.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69947, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70047, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70047 range top opens a retest of the 0.70169 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.69947 range low exposes the 0.69825 London low
Sustained trade below 0.7000 psych would undercut the recovery from the NY rejection
US-Iran headlines remain the main USD driver into the Asia session, with thin post-rollover liquidity
Post-spike range 0.6995–0.7005 after NY rejection.
The NY session spike to the 0.70169 spike high on soft US housing data and a weaker USD was rejected back below 0.7015. Price has since compressed in a 0.6995–0.7005 range around the 0.7000 psych level, with the range low holding near the 61.8% retracement of the move from the 0.69825 London low. Early Asia session after the daily rollover, RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR(14) at about 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69947, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70047, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70047 range top reopens a test of the 0.70169 spike high
Failure to hold the 0.69947 range low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 0.69825 London low
Acceptance back above 0.70169 would void the false-break read
US-Iran deal headlines are the main USD swing risk during the Asia session
21:16 UTC
Range after NY spike faded · RSI 41 · price 0.69985
Post-spike range 0.6995–0.7004 below failed 0.7017 high.
Soft US housing data and a retreating USD drove a NY leg from the 0.6983 London low to a 0.7017 session high, but the push above 0.7015 reversed within the hour. Since then price has held a tight 0.6995–0.7004 range near the 50–61.8% retracement of that NY leg, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR compressing to about 2 pips into the daily rollover.
Support: 0.69947, 0.69894, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6995 range low (61.8% of the NY leg) exposes the 0.6989 Asian high
Close above the 0.7004 range top reopens a test of the 0.7017 session high
Asia session open could widen the range off rollover-thin liquidity
US-Iran deal headlines remain the main USD swing factor and could break the range
Tight post-spike range 0.6995–0.7004, pressing range top.
Weak US housing data during NY hours drove a spike to the 0.7017 session high that was rejected within two bars. Since then the pair has held a 0.6995–0.7004 range, with the range floor sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the rally off the 0.6983 London low. Late NY drift is pressing the range top, and RSI(14) is neutral near 58.
Support: 0.69995, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7004 range top reopens the 0.7017 session high, just above the 0.7015 cap flagged in the market digest
Loss of the 0.6995 range floor (61.8% fib) breaks the post-spike consolidation and exposes the 0.6983 London low
Thin liquidity into the Asia session; US-Iran headlines remain the main USD swing factor for this range
Post-spike consolidation above 61.8% fib; late-NY range 0.6998–0.7004.
NY broke above the Asian range high near 0.6997. Weak US housing data then spiked price to a 0.7017 session high, which was rejected back to the fib 61.8% near 0.6995. That level held three times, and late NY is now compressing in a tight 0.6998–0.7004 range with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 2 pips.
Support: 0.69978, 0.6995, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.7004 range top reopens the 0.7017 session high
Break below the range low at 0.6998 puts the 0.6995 fib 61.8% (triple low) back in focus
Loss of 0.6995 exposes the 0.6983 london low and unwinds the NY breakout
Thin rollover and Asia session liquidity; US-Iran deal headlines remain the main USD swing factor
20:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled after NY spike · RSI 58 · price 0.70024
Tight post-NY range 0.6995–0.7003 below rejected 0.7017 high.
The PBoC LPR hold put in an Asian low at 0.6970. London and NY then built higher, and the soft US housing data drove a spike to the 0.7017 NY high, which was rejected within the hour. Since then price has held a tight 0.6995–0.7003 range just above the 0.7000 round number. The range low sits near the 38.2% of the Asia low–NY high fib.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6995, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70035 range top reopens the 0.7015–0.7017 NY high
Failure of the 0.6995 range low exposes the 50% fib near 0.6994 and then the 0.6983 London low
Loss of the 0.7000 round number during the Asia session weakens the post-spike hold
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US-Iran headlines remain the main USD swing risk into Asia
Post-spike consolidation inside 0.6995–0.7003 range below session high.
Higher lows from the 0.6970 asian low, set on the PBoC LPR dip, carried into London. NY then spiked to a 0.7017 session high on the softer USD, with weak US housing data and US-Iran deal hopes, before rejection at the 0.7015 cap. The pullback held the 61.8% fib near the 0.6995 range low, and late NY is compressing between that level and the 0.7003 range top, with price hugging EMA20 and ATR down to ~3 pips.
Support: 0.6995, 0.69825, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.70034, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7017 session high clears the 0.7015 cap and ends the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 0.6995 range low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.6983 london low
Asia session open on thin liquidity with no scheduled AUD/USD data in the next 8h; US-Iran headlines remain the main USD swing factor
Post-NY compression 0.6995–0.7003 after rejected spike to 0.7017.
Soft US housing data and a softer USD drove the NY push through 0.7000, but the spike to the 0.7017 ny high reversed within an hour. Since then, after the NY close, price has compressed between the 0.6995 range low and 0.7003 range top, sitting on the 50% retracement of the NY rally. The day's structure is still a higher-low chain: the 0.6970 Asian dip on the PBoC hold, a London break of the Asian high, then the NY leg.
Support: 0.6995, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7003 range top reopens the 0.7017 ny high
Break of the 0.6995 range low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.6983 pre-ny low and breaks the higher-low chain
No scheduled AUD/USD data in the next 8h; US-Iran deal headlines are the main risk to the range
Asian and London higher lows; NY spike rejected, now a tight band under 0.7003.
The soft US housing prints in the NY session drove a spike to the 0.7017 spike high, which was rejected. Price has since compressed into a 0.6995–0.7003 band (range low to range top), holding the 50–61.8% zone of the NY leg fib off the 0.6983 London low. The rising support from the 0.6970 Asian low still sits beneath; RSI(14) is flat near 52 and ATR(14) is only about 3 pips as late NY winds down.
Support: 0.69947, 0.69825, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.70034, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7003 range top reopens the 0.7017 spike high and the 0.7015 resistance flagged in the digest
Close below the 0.6995 range low breaks the 61.8% of the NY leg fib and exposes the rising support near 0.6991, then the 0.6983 London low
Loss of the 0.6970 Asian low would end the intraday higher-low sequence
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US-Iran deal headlines are the main USD swing risk into the Asia session
19:31 UTC
Sideways after rejected NY spike · RSI 48 · price 0.69992
Tight post-spike range 0.6995–0.7004 at 50% fib.
The NY session rally on a softer USD (weak US housing data, US-Iran deal hopes) spiked through 0.7015 to a session high at 0.7017. It was rejected within three bars, so the 0.7015 break failed. Since then price has held a 0.6995–0.7004 range for over four hours, pinned at the 50% retrace of the London low-to-session high leg, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.69947, 0.69825, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7004 range top reopens the 0.7017 session high.
Failure to hold the 0.6995 range low exposes the 0.6983 london low, the base of the NY rally.
A move below the 0.6970 asia low would unwind the whole day's advance.
Late NY into Asia is thin. AU flash PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC) are the next scheduled risk.
19:16 UTC
Flat after NY spike rejection · RSI 46 · price 0.69989
Tight 0.6995–0.7003 range under the NY session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.6989. The NY session then spiked to a session high at 0.7017 on broad USD softness from weak housing data and US-Iran deal hopes, but the move was rejected back under 0.7000. Into late NY, price has compressed between a range low at 0.6995, which sits on the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, and a range high at 0.7003, with ATR down to about 3–4 pips.
Support: 0.6995, 0.6989
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7017
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6995 range low exposes the 0.6989 Asian high
Close above the 0.7003 range high reopens the 0.7017 session high
US-Iran headlines during the Asia session could break the late-NY compression
19:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 55 · price 0.70025
Late-NY compression in a tight 0.6995–0.7004 range on the 0.7000 round number, below the NY high.
The weak US Pending Home Sales print at 14:00 UTC spiked AUDUSD to a 0.7017 NY high, but price was rejected and faded straight back to 0.6997. Since then it has compressed in a 0.6995–0.7004 range around the 0.7000 round number. The range low is holding near the 61.8% of the London low-to-NY high leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and ATR shrinking to about 3.6 pips into the Asia handover.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69947, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7004 range top reopens the 0.7017 NY high
Break below the 0.6995 range low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 0.6983 London low
Loss of the 0.7000 round number keeps the NY spike as a failed extension
US-Iran headlines remain the main USD driver into the Asia session; no scheduled data in the next 8h
18:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 53 · price 0.70019
Tight range 0.6995–0.7003 below rejected NY spike high.
Soft US housing data drove an early-NY spike through 0.7000 to a 0.70169 spike high, which was rejected inside the hour. Late NY session is compressing in a 0.6995–0.7003 range around the round number, with the NY low near the rally's 61.8% fib and the 50% level at 0.6999 holding as a pivot.
Support: 0.69947, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.70035 range top reopens the 0.70169 spike high
Close below the 0.69947 NY low exposes the 0.69825 london low and the rally's 61.8% fib
US-Iran deal headlines are the main USD swing factor during thin late-NY and Asia hours
Higher lows since Asian dip; tight post-spike range at 0.7000.
AUD/USD broke 0.7000 in NY on soft US housing data and US-Iran deal reports, spiking to a 0.70169 session high before a sharp rejection. Late NY is consolidating around the round number. The range low at 0.69947 sits near the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the london low.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69947, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69947 range low breaks the 61.8% retrace and opens the 0.69825 london low
Close above the 0.70035 range high puts the 0.70169 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.7000 round number into Asia session turns the NY breakout into a false break
US-Iran deal headlines remain the main swing factor for USD overnight
Rising lows since London, tight range 0.6995–0.7004 after rejection at 0.7017.
Soft US housing data and USD weakness on US-Iran headlines drove AUD through the 0.7000 round number in the first hour of NY. The move hit a 0.7017 session high, near the 0.7015 cap flagged in market commentary, and was rejected. Price has since been boxed between a 0.6995 range low, near the 61.8% retrace of the London low-high leg, and a 0.7004 range top, with RSI(14) neutral at about 44.
Support: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7004 range top reopens a test of the 0.7017 session high
Failure to hold the 0.6995 range low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.6983 london low
No AU/US data in the next 8h; US-Iran deal headlines are the main risk to this read during late NY / Asia session
18:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after NY spike · RSI 58 · price 0.70029
Price broke above the Asian range (0.6970–0.6989, PBoC dip to the lows) before London, then extended in NY on soft US housing data. The NY spike to the 0.7017 session high was rejected. Late in the NY session, price is compressing just above the 0.7000 psych, with a triple low at 0.6995 (61.8% of the NY leg fib) underneath and the 0.7004 range cap overhead.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6995, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7004 range cap reopens the 0.7017 session high and digest cap near 0.7015
Failure to hold the 0.6995 triple low (61.8% retrace) exposes the 0.6983 swing low from the pre-data NY base
US-Iran deal headlines remain a live risk to the USD tone and could break the compression either way
17:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, consolidating after NY spike · RSI 55 · price 0.70028
Post-breakout range 0.6995–0.7004 below the 0.7017 session high.
NY cleared the Asian high and London range on a soft USD (US-Iran headlines, weak housing data), spiking to the 0.7017 session high before giving back most of it. Since then price has held a 0.6995–0.7004 range, with the range low near the 61.8% of the NY leg; late-NY bars are pressing the range top with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.6995, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7004 range top opens a retest of the 0.7017 session high
Failure to hold the 0.6995 range low and rising support re-exposes the 0.6983 london low
US-Iran deal headlines are live risk and could reverse the USD move at any time; no scheduled data in the next 8h
Higher lows since Asia; post-spike consolidation 0.6995–0.7004.
Weak US housing data and a softer USD lifted AUDUSD through 0.7000 in the first hour of NY. The spike to the 0.7017 session high was rejected just above the 0.7015 cap. Since then, after London close, price has held a tight 0.6995–0.7004 range around the round number, with the range low sitting on the 61.8% of the NY rally fib and higher lows intact since the Asia session.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69947, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7004 range high reopens the 0.7017 session high
Failure to hold the 0.6995 range low exposes the 0.6983 swing low and the higher-lows trendline
No scheduled AU/USD data in the next 8h; US-Iran headlines remain the main USD driver
17:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after NY spike · RSI 51 · price 0.69985
Higher lows since Asia; NY spike rejected, now coiling around 0.7000.
Weak US housing data and US-Iran headlines lifted AUD from the 0.6983 london low to a 0.7017 ny high, but the spike was rejected within two bars. Price has since held the 61.8% fib at 0.6995 three times and sits pinned to EMA20 just under the 0.7000 round number. The higher-lows line from the Asia low remains intact, and the 38.2% fib at 0.7004 has capped post-spike bounces.
Support: 0.6995, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7004, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.7004 reopens the ny high at 0.7017, near the 0.7015 cap flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.6995 exposes the london low at 0.6983 and the higher-lows line
Late NY session into Asia, so range compression around the 0.7000 round number is likely without fresh US-Iran headlines
Higher lows since Asia; post-spike range 0.6995–0.7004 at the 0.7000 handle.
NY broke the London high and 0.7000 after weak US housing data and a softer USD. It spiked to a 0.7017 session high near the 0.7015 cap flagged in the market context, and that high was rejected. Since then price has held a tight 0.6995–0.7004 range just under EMA20, sitting on the 50% retrace of the NY rally fib.
Support: 0.6995, 0.6983, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.7017
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.6995 range low (61.8% of the NY rally fib) exposes the 0.6983 london low
Close above the 0.7004 range top reopens the 0.7017 session high
Loss of the rising lows trendline from the 0.6970 asian low breaks the higher-low chain
No scheduled AUD/USD data in the next 8h; US-Iran headlines remain the main swing factor into Asia
Higher lows from Asia; tight range 0.6995–0.7004 after rejection at 0.7017.
Soft US housing data lifted AUDUSD through 0.7000 in early NY to a 0.7017 session high, but sellers rejected it at the 0.7015 area and price fell back to the 50% fib near 0.6999. After London close, price holds a tight range between the ny low at 0.6995 and the range top at 0.7004, with rising lows intact since the Asia dip to 0.6970.
Support: 0.69947, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7017 session high breaks the rejection and clears 0.7015 resistance
Break below the 0.6995 ny low (61.8% fib) opens a retest of the 0.6982 london low
Loss of the 0.6982 london low and the rising-lows line ends the higher-low sequence
US-Iran deal headlines can jolt USD during thin late-NY trade
Higher lows from Asia low; NY spike rejected, retesting 0.7000.
Soft US housing data at 14:00 UTC pushed AUDUSD through 0.7000 to a 0.7017 session high, near the 0.7015 cap flagged in the digest. That spike was rejected, and after London close price is pinned to the 0.7000 round number. The 61.8% fib of the London low-to-high leg is holding near 0.6995, and the rising trendline from the Asia low sits around 0.6988.
Support: 0.6995, 0.6988, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7004, 0.7017
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7004 pullback hi reopens the 0.7017 session high
Failure to hold the fib 61.8% at 0.6995 exposes the trendline near 0.6988
Break below the 0.6983 london low ends the intraday higher-low sequence
No scheduled AUD or USD data in the next 8h; US-Iran deal headlines are the main risk to this read
HH/HL chain from the 0.6970 Asian low; NY breakout retracing to 0.7000.
NY session broke the London range top near 0.6998 and spiked to a 0.7017 session high as soft US housing data and US-Iran deal hopes weighed on USD, then hit supply and gave back most of the move. The pullback low at 0.6996 sits on the 61.8% fib of the 0.6983–0.7017 leg, and price is coiling around 0.7000 with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 0.69955, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70035, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6996 pullback low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.6983 london low
Close above the 0.7003 minor high puts the 0.7017 session high and the 0.7015 cap back in play
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US-Iran headlines are the main swing risk into the Asia session
Higher lows from the Asian low; spike above the 0.7015 range top rejected.
Soft US housing data in NY hours pushed AUDUSD to a 0.70169 session high, but price was rejected just above the 0.7015 range top. The pullback low at 0.69955 sat on the 61.8% fib of the London low rally, keeping the higher-lows chain from the 0.6970 Asian low intact. Price is back at the 0.7000 round number after London close, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69955, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70169
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.70169 session high clears the 0.7015 range top
A close back below the 0.69955 pullback low exposes the 0.69825 london low
Losing the higher-lows trendline from the Asian low breaks the intraday uptrend read
No scheduled data in the next 8h; UST yields and US tech headlines are the main USD driver
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled after a failed range-top push · RSI 56 · price 0.69994
NY spike above 0.7015 rejected; pullback holding the 61.8% retracement.
Soft US housing data lifted the pair off the 0.6983 london low and through the 0.7015 range top to a 0.7017 ny high early in the NY session, but it reversed back below 0.7000 and looks like a false break so far. The pullback stalled at 0.6996, the 61.8% fib of that leg, and price is now pinned at the 0.7000 psych level with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 0.69955, 0.69825, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70169
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.7017 ny high would turn the false break into a range break
Failure to hold 0.6996 (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.6983 london low
A break of 0.6983 reopens the Asian range down toward the 0.6970 asian low
No scheduled AUD/USD data in the next 8h; USD tone around 0.7000 psych hinges on yields and equity sentiment
Higher lows intact, false break above 0.7015 range top.
Soft US housing data and a weaker dollar lifted AUD through 0.7000 to a 0.70169 spike high in the London-NY overlap. Price reversed back below the 0.7015 range top and is now sitting on the 50% retracement near the 0.7000 psych level. The rising lows from the 0.6983 london low still hold, with the 0.6997 swing low as the nearest test.
Support: 0.69968, 0.69825, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.70169 spike high negates the false break read
Failure to hold the 0.6997 swing low and the rising lows exposes the 0.6983 london low
A break of the london low reopens the 0.6970 asian low set on the PBoC dip
No scheduled AUD/USD events in the next 8h; AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst
Higher-low chain intact; false break above 0.7015 range top, back at 0.7000.
NY session pushed through the 0.7015 range top to a 0.7017 ny high as USD softened on weak US housing data and AI-driven yield declines. The break failed inside two bars and price is back at 0.7000, the 50% retrace of the NY leg from the 0.6983 london low. RSI(14) has cooled to ~52, and the pullback low at 0.6997 and the ny base near 0.6992 still sit above the rising lows line.
Support: 0.69968, 0.6992, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70085, 0.70169
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7008 breakdown pt would put the 0.7017 ny high and the 0.7015 range top back in play
Loss of the 0.6997 pullback low exposes the 0.6992 ny base; a break under the 0.6983 london low ends the rising lows sequence
London close approaching with no scheduled AUD/USD data in the next 8h; US equity and yield swings remain the driver
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at range top · RSI 69 · price 0.70083
NY breakout above 0.7000 rejected at 0.7015–0.7017; higher lows intact.
Soft US housing data and lower yields lifted the NY session through the 0.7000 psych level to a 0.7017 session high, but no M15 bar closed above the 0.7015 range top and the next bar fell back to 0.7008. Price is holding above the 0.7005 spike low on a chain of NY rising lows, with RSI(14) at 69, easing from the mid-70s.
Support: 0.70054, 0.7000, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.70169
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7017 session high clears the range top and extends the breakout
A close back below 0.7000 psych, where the 50% fib of the NY leg also sits, turns the move into a false break and exposes the 0.6983 london low
A break of the NY rising lows trendline near 0.6999 ends the intraday higher-low chain
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive NY leg now pausing · RSI 77 · price 0.70133
HH/HL chain; NY broke above the London high and 0.7000.
The NY session broke the 0.7000 round number and the 0.6998 London high, then a 15-pip bar tagged a 0.7017 session high just above the 0.7015 range top as USD softened on AI jitters and lower yields. Price is pausing at 0.7013 with RSI(14) near 77. The 0.7000 round number lines up with the 50% retracement of the 0.6983–0.7017 leg.
Support: 0.70107, 0.7000, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70169
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7011 pullback low opens a retest of the 0.7000 round number
M15 close back below 0.7000 would mark the range-top push as a false break
M15 close above the 0.7017 session high extends the breakout clear of 0.7015
A break of rising support from the 0.6970 Asian low toward the 0.6983 London low ends the HH/HL chain
NY breakout above London high and 0.7000, now testing just above 0.7015.
Early in the NY session, AUD/USD cleared the London high at 0.6998 and the 0.7000 psych level. The 14:15 UTC bar ran about 14 pips through the 0.7015 range top and printed a session high at 0.7017, with the soft USD as the backdrop. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, and the 50% fib of the NY rally sits at the 0.7000 psych level.
Support: 0.7015, 0.7000, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70167
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.7015 range top would put the breakout at risk of a false break
Failure to hold the 0.7000 psych level, the 50% fib, would expose the NY rally line
A break of the NY rally line and the 0.6983 London low negates the intraday uptrend
Stalling at the 0.7017 session high with RSI(14) near 80 leaves the move extended
Higher lows since London low, NY breakout above London high.
NY session cleared the 0.69983 London high and pushed through the 0.7000 round number to a session high at 0.70013 as the USD stayed soft after the housing starts miss. Higher lows hold from the 0.69825 London low, RSI(14) near 69, with the 0.7015 range top just overhead.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69925, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70013, 0.7015
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7000 round number would mark the push as a false break
Loss of the 0.69925 swing low breaks the NY higher-low trendline
Break below the 0.69825 London low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Rejection or acceptance at the 0.7015 range top decides whether the NY leg extends
US Pending Home Sales reaction could shift the late-NY read
HH/HL chain from the 0.6970 Asian low; NY broke above the London high.
Higher lows at 0.6970 (Asian low), 0.6980 and 0.6983 (late-London swing low) carried AUDUSD into the first hour of NY. Price cleared the 0.6998 London high to a 0.7001 session high as the USD softened after the Housing Starts miss. RSI(14) at 64 is firm but not stretched, and the round-number 0.7000 is now being tested.
Support: 0.6998, 0.6983, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.7001, 0.7015
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the 0.6998 london high would mark the break above it as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6983 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the HH/HL chain
A sustained hold above the 0.7001 session high opens the 0.7015 range cap flagged in the macro digest
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is due now; a USD bounce would test the round-number breakout
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, stalling under 0.6998 · RSI 58 · price 0.69949
Higher lows since 0.6970; 0.6983–0.6998 range through London-NY.
NY session lifted price from the 0.6983 London low back to 0.6996, recovering the 09:00 UTC rejection from the 0.6998 London high as the Housing Starts miss kept USD soft. Higher lows off the 0.6970 Asian low remain intact, with a 13:00 UTC swing low at 0.6989. RSI(14) at 58 sits below the 0.7000 psych cap.
Support: 0.69889, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6998 London high and 0.7000 psych breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 0.6989 swing low reopens the 0.6983 London low, near the 50% fib of the Asia rally
Break of the rising lows trendline from 0.6970 ends the higher-low sequence
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift USD intraday
13:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher low in place · RSI 54 · price 0.69933
HL at 0.6983 after London high; NY retesting session high under 0.7000.
London cleared the Asian high near 0.6989 and printed a 0.6998 session high. The pullback to the 0.6983 London low held as a higher low, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the Asian low to session high leg. NY extended on the soft USD tone after the US housing miss and is now retesting the session high area under the 0.7000 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.69889, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6998 session high and 0.7000 round number breaks the session range and puts the 0.7015 cap in play
Loss of the 0.6989 Asian high brings the 0.6983 London low and the rising trendline back into focus
A break below the 0.6983 London low negates the higher-low chain
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact but lands inside the NY retest
Higher lows since the Asian low; London range 0.6983–0.6998, price in upper half.
Asia rallied off the 0.6970 Asian low and London extended to a 0.6998 session high. That high met a sharp rejection at 09:00 UTC. The 0.6983 London low held near the 61.8% fib as a higher low on rising support, and a fresh higher low at 0.6987 has price back at 0.6994 into the NY open, underpinned by the China GDP beat and a soft USD.
Support: 0.69871, 0.69825, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6998 session high puts the 0.7000 round number and range top in play
Break below the 0.6987 higher low and the 0.6983 London low ends the higher-low chain and breaks rising support
US Pending Home Sales 14:00 UTC is a low-impact print, but NY-hours USD tone could shift the read
13:03 UTC
Intraday range below 0.7000 · RSI 52 · price 0.69902
Range 0.6982–0.6998 since London, lower high at 0.6996.
AUD/USD stalled under the 0.7000 round number, with the 0.6998 session high capping London and a 12:45 push to a lower high at 0.6996 rejected into the London-NY transition. The 0.6970 day low came on the brief PBoC-hold dip in Asia, and the higher-lows line from there now runs through the 0.6982 London low near the 61.8% fib. RSI(14) at 52 is neutral and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.69825, 0.69811, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69959, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6998 session high puts the 0.7000 round number in play, the cap of the three-week range
A second rejection below the 0.6996 lower high keeps the 0.6982–0.6998 range intact
Close below the 0.6982 London low breaks the higher-lows line and the fib 61.8, exposing the 0.6970 day low
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact; USD tone remains tied to equity and AI-stock sentiment
Higher lows since Asia; London range 0.6983–0.6998 under 0.7000.
London cleared the Asian range high at 0.6989 and stalled at the 0.6998 london high, just under the 0.7000 round number. The pullback held a swing low at 0.6983, a little over half of the Asia-London leg on the asia-london fib, and the first hour of NY has reclaimed the 0.6993 prior high on the softer USD tone, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.69925, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.6998 london high or the 0.7000 round number keeps the 0.6983–0.6998 range intact
M15 close above 0.7000 breaks the session range top and the multi-week range cap
Close below the 0.6983 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline and ends the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.6993 prior high returns price to mid-range
USD tone tied to US AI-equity sentiment during NY hours could shift this read; no scheduled AUD or USD data in the next 8h
Asian-range breakout, then a 0.6983–0.6998 range through London.
London open cleared the Asian high at 0.6989 and ran to a 0.6998 session high, just shy of the 0.7000 range top, before a mid-London rejection. The pullback found a floor at the 0.6983 swing low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Asia-to-London leg. Price has bounced back to 0.6992 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and AUD underpinned by the China data beat and a softer USD.
Support: 0.69894, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6998 session high puts the 0.7000 range top in play
Slipping back below the 0.6989 asian high turns the retest into a failed hold and exposes the 0.6983 swing low
A break of the 0.6983 swing low undoes the London pullback structure
No AU/US data scheduled in the next 8h, so the NY session tone hinges on USD reaction to equity/AI sentiment
Lower-high/lower-low sequence since 0.6998 rejection; holding 38.2% fib.
The China GDP beat and a soft USD carried the rally to a London session high at 0.6998, just shy of the 0.7000 psych level, where price was rejected. A lower-high chain has formed since, and price is back below the 0.6989 Asian high in the first hour of NY. The pullback is sitting on the 38.2% fib of the Asian-low rally, with the swing low at 0.6983 next below. RSI(14) is near 43 and price is pinned at the EMA50.
Support: 0.69825, 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6989 Asian high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 0.6998 session high
Failure to hold the 0.6983 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.6981 and the 0.6980 Asian HL
A break of the Asian HL at 0.6980 shifts focus to the 0.6970 Asian low
No scheduled AUD/USD data in the next 8h; USD tone is tied to US equity/AI headlines during NY hours
12:02 UTC
Intraday pullback from session high · RSI 40 · price 0.69853
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.6998 since mid-London.
After the brief Asian dip to the 0.6970 asian low on the PBoC LPR hold, AUD rallied through London open to a 0.6998 session high just shy of 0.7000 psych and was rejected. Price has since printed lower highs and lower lows, with the 0.6982 swing low tested near the 61.8% fib of the 0.6970–0.6998 leg. It now sits around the 50% level ahead of the NY open, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.69825, 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69934, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6993 lower high and descending trendline breaks the pullback structure and reopens the 0.6998 session high and 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the 0.6982 swing low exposes the 0.6980 pre-london base and 61.8% fib
A break below 0.6980 leaves the 0.6970 asian low as the next reference
US Housing Starts/Building Permits at 12:30 UTC and the first hour of NY could shift this read
Lower high under session high, twin lows holding at 0.6985.
The PBoC-linked Asian dip to the 0.6970 Asian low reversed into London on the China GDP beat and a soft USD, but the move stalled at a 0.6998 session high with a rejection just shy of 0.7000 psych. Since then a lower high at 0.6993 and twin lows at 0.6985 frame a tight consolidation between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asia-London leg, with RSI(14) near 41 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.69853, 0.69811, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69934, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6985 twin lows exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.6981, then the 0.6970 Asian low
Close above the 0.6993 lower high and the descending trendline reopens the 0.6998 session high and 0.7000 psych
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) ahead of NY open could break the consolidation
Post-rejection consolidation: twin lows at 0.6985, lower highs from 0.6998.
London cleared the Asian range high at 0.6989 and stalled at the 0.6998 session high, just shy of 0.7000 psych. A sharp rejection followed as the USD caught an oil-driven bid. Mid-London, price is compressing between twin lows at 0.6985 and a run of lower highs capped near 0.6993, with RSI(14) neutral at ~51 and ATR(14) ~4 pips.
Support: 0.69853, 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69934, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6985 twin lows exposes the 0.6980 swing low and the 38.2–50% retrace of the Asian low rally
Failure to hold the 0.6980 swing low puts the 0.6970 asian low back in play
Close above the 0.6993 lower high reopens the 0.6998 session high and 0.7000 psych
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) into the NY open could break the compression
The China-data rally off the post-PBoC Asian low at 0.6970 carried London to a 0.6998 London high. That high was a marginal break of the Asian high, but it stalled shy of 0.7000 psych and reversed sharply. Buyers have held the 0.6985 London low twice since, while a lower high at 0.6993 caps the rebound, leaving price on the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London rally with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.69853, 0.69806, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69934, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6985 London low exposes the 0.6981 Asia shelf and the 50% retrace of the Asia-London rally
Loss of the 0.6981 Asia shelf puts the 0.6970 Asian low back in view
Break above the 0.6993 lower high reopens the 0.6998 London high and 0.7000 psych
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) into the NY open could shift this read
London rejected under 0.7000, lower high at 0.6993, retesting 0.6985 low.
The China GDP beat and a softer USD lifted AUDUSD from the PBoC-dip asia low at 0.6970 to a 0.6998 session high in London, where supply capped price just under the 0.7000 psych. The oil-driven USD rebound knocked it back to 0.6985. A 0.6993 lower high followed, and price is now retesting the london low near the 50% fib of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) at 41 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.69853, 0.69805, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69934, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6985 london low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6980 asia base
Reclaiming the 0.6993 lower high reopens the session high and 0.7000 psych
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) at the NY open could shift this read
The Asia session rallied from the 0.6970 Asian low into London, where a push to a 0.6998 session high, just above the Asian high, was rejected sharply as USD rebounded on oil headlines. That rejection left a false break under the 0.7000 round number. The London low at 0.6986 held near the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally, and price is now coiling between 0.6988 and 0.6993 under a lower high, mid-late London.
Support: 0.69855, 0.6981, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69934, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.6993 lower high reopens the 0.6998 session high and the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6986 london low exposes the 61.8% fib and the asian shelf near 0.6981
A break under 0.6970 would take out the asian low and erase the whole overnight rally
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) are second-tier but may set the tone into NY open
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, stalled under 0.7000 · RSI 46 · price 0.6990
Higher lows intact; lower high forming after rejection at 0.6998.
Early London broke the Asian range high near 0.6989 and the prior-day high, with AUD supported by China data and a softer USD. The move stalled at the 0.6998 session high just under 0.7000 psych, then dropped to the 0.6986 London low, which is the 38.2–50% retracement of the rally off the 0.6970 Asia low. Price is now coiling near 0.6990 below a lower high at 0.6993, with the rising Asia trendline just underneath.
Support: 0.69855, 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69934, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6986 London low breaks the Asia trendline and exposes the 0.6980 swing low
Failure to hold the 0.6980 swing low ends the higher-low sequence from the 0.6970 Asia low
A close above the 0.6993 lower high reopens the 0.6998 session high and the 0.7000 psych range cap
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC (second-tier) could shift USD tone into the NY open
Asian high breakout retested and reclaimed; higher lows since Asian low.
The China GDP beat and soft USD drove a pre-London breakout above the 0.69894 Asian high. Rejection came at a 0.69983 session high just under the 0.7000 range top. The 09:00 UTC USD rebound on oil headlines knocked price to a 0.69855 swing low near the 38.2% fib, and mid-London it is back above the Asian high with ATR(14) at 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.69894, 0.69855, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 0.69983 session high puts the 0.7000 range top in play
Close below the 0.69855 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline; the 0.69704 Asian low (PBoC dip) is the next reference
US housing data at 12:30 UTC and the NY open could shift the USD tone, though both are second-tier
Higher lows from the Asian low; rejection under 0.7000, pullback held 38.2–50% fib.
AUD extended from the 0.6970 asian low, set on the brief post-PBoC dip, on China-beat and soft-USD flows. London pushed it to a 0.6998 session high, just shy of 0.7000 psych, where it was rejected. The drop to the 0.6986 pullback low held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that move. Price now sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 47, retesting yesterday's 0.6992 prior high from below.
Support: 0.69855, 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6992 prior high reopens the 0.6998 session high and 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the 0.6986 pullback low exposes the 0.6980 swing low near the 61.8% fib
Loss of 0.6980 would break the higher-low chain back toward the 0.6970 asian low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) during NY hours could shift the USD leg
Asian range broken higher, pullback from session high.
AUDUSD rallied from the 0.6970 Asian low after the PBoC LPR hold and broke the 0.6989 Asian high into London. It met supply at a 0.6998 session high, just shy of the 0.7000 round number. A sharp rejection to the 0.69855 spike low has price sitting at the 38.2% retracement, just under EMA20 and hovering at EMA50.
Support: 0.69855, 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.69855 spike low exposes the 0.6980 swing low and the 50% retracement near 0.6984
Reclaiming the 0.69925 prior high puts the session high and the 0.7000 round number back in play
A move back below the 0.6989 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) could shift the read in the NY session
Higher lows 0.6970 → 0.6980 → 0.6986; London high 0.6998 rejected.
The Asia rally ran from the 0.6970 Asia low, set on the PBoC LPR dip, to a 0.6998 session high early in London. Supply capped it just shy of the 0.7000 psych level. A sharp 09:00 UTC drop to the 0.6986 London low held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement, keeping the higher-low chain intact. Price has recovered to 0.6991, just under yesterday's 0.6992 prior high and sitting on EMA20, while the soft USD keeps the dip shallow.
Support: 0.69855, 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6986 London low breaks the higher-low line and the intraday HL chain
Loss of the 0.6980 swing low exposes the 0.6970 Asia low
Close above the 0.6992 prior high and the 0.6998 session high brings the 0.7000 psych level into play; a second rejection there would mark a lower high
US housing starts, permits and pending home sales at 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift USD and this read
Higher lows off the Asian low; London pullback retesting the broken Asian high.
Early-Europe break of the 0.6989 Asian high, on China data and a soft USD, ran to a 0.6998 session high just shy of 0.7000 psych. A sharp rejection in the 09:00 UTC bar then dropped price to a 0.6986 pullback low at the 38.2% fib of the 0.6970–0.6998 leg; the 0.6970 Asian low marked the brief LPR dip. Price now sits below EMA20 and is retesting the Asian high from below.
Support: 0.69855, 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.69983
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6992 prior high reopens the 0.6998 session high and 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the 0.6986 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 0.6984 and the 0.6980 swing low
Break of the 0.6980 swing low would end the higher-low chain and put the 0.6970 Asian low back in view
US ADP, housing starts and pending home sales 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift this read via the USD
Post-breakout tight range above Asian high, higher lows from 0.6970.
AUDUSD broke the Asian high and yesterday's 0.6992 peak in the hour before London open, extending the higher-low recovery from the ~0.6970 LPR dip on firm China data and a soft USD. Since London open price has compressed in a 0.6993–0.6998 band, with the session high capping just under 0.7000 psych.
Support: 0.6993, 0.6989, 0.6981
Resistance: 0.6998, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7000 psych breaks the London range and the session high cap
Failure to hold the 0.6993 london low and a slip back under the 0.6989 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.6981 base breaks the higher-low trendline from 0.6970
US housing data and pending home sales 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift USD into the NY session
Higher lows since the LPR dip, Asian range high broken, tight London consolidation.
The PBoC LPR dip to 0.6970 drew buyers. Price then broke the 0.6989 Asian high just before London on the China-beat and soft-USD backdrop. Early London has compressed in a 4-pip band between the 0.6993 London low and the 0.6998 session high, just under the 0.7000 psych, with RSI(14) near 74 and the higher-lows line intact.
Support: 0.6993, 0.69894, 0.69802
Resistance: 0.69977, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7000 psych extends the breakout from the Asian range
A slip back below the 0.6993 London low and into the range under the 0.6989 Asian high would read as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6980 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain
US housing data at 12:15–14:00 UTC, around NY open, could shift the USD read
HH/HL chain from Asian low, tight range under psych.
A pre-London push cleared the 0.6989 Asian high and the prior-day high, and price has since compressed in a 0.6993–0.6997 range just under the 0.7000 psych. China data beats and a soft USD underpin AUD. The brief dip to 0.6970 around the PBoC LPR set the Asian low, and 0.6980 is the latest higher low.
Support: 0.6993, 0.6989, 0.6980
Resistance: 0.6997, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7000 psych extends the breakout beyond the session high
Close back below 0.6989 asian high returns price inside the Asian range
Failure to hold 0.6980 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain
US housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift USD during NY hours
Higher lows from the Asian low; London broke above the Asian high and is now in a tight range near the session high.
From the post-LPR Asian low at 0.6970, London open lifted price through the 0.6989 Asian high and yesterday's 0.6993 peak, with soft USD and China data behind AUD. Price has stalled for two hours in a 0.6993–0.6997 band (range low to session high) just under 0.7000 psych. RSI(14) is near 70 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.6993, 0.6989, 0.6980
Resistance: 0.69972, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6997 session high and 0.7000 psych extends the breakout
Close back below the 0.6993 range low and 0.6989 Asian high would mark a false break
Loss of the 0.6980 swing low breaks the rising support from the Asian low
US housing data and pending home sales 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift USD into the NY session
Asian range broken higher, tight consolidation under the session high.
AUD broke out of the Asian range ahead of London, clearing the 0.6989 Asian high and yesterday's 0.6992 prior high. The move followed China's GDP beat and a soft USD, and came after the brief LPR dip to 0.6970 was bought. Early London is now compressing between 0.6993 and the 0.6997 session high, which has been tested twice, with RSI(14) near 71 and the 0.7000 psych level just overhead.
Support: 0.69925, 0.69894, 0.69802
Resistance: 0.69972, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7000 psych extends the breakout; another rejection at the 0.6997 session high keeps the consolidation intact
Failure back below the 0.6992 prior high and the 0.6989 Asian high would mark a false break of the Asian range
A break of the 0.6980 swing low (61.8% fib) would end the higher-lows sequence from 0.6970
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg into NY
Asian range broken higher, higher lows intact, tight consolidation at session high.
With the USD soft after China's GDP beat, AUDUSD cleared the 0.6989 Asian high and the 0.6993 prior high in the hour before London open, extending a higher-low sequence that began at the 0.6970 post-LPR dip. The first hour of London is compressing just under a double tap of the 0.6997 session high, with the 0.7000 psych level directly overhead and RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 0.69925, 0.69894, 0.69802
Resistance: 0.69972, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7000 psych level clears the session high and the range top cited in the digest
A second rejection at the 0.6997 session high followed by a close back below the 0.6993 prior high would mark a false break
A return into the Asian range below 0.6989 (asian high) puts the breakout leg's 50% retracement in play
A break of the 0.6980 swing low snaps the higher-low trendline
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) are the next USD catalysts during NY hours
Higher lows from the 0.6970 low; Asian range and prior high broken.
In the hour before London open, AUD cleared the Asian high at 0.6989 and Monday's prior high at 0.6993. It printed a session high at 0.6997, just shy of the 0.7000 psych level, with China data and a soft USD behind the bid; RSI(14) is near 69. Early London is holding the 0.6993–0.6997 band, and the higher lows from the post-LPR dip at 0.6970 through the 0.6980 swing low are intact.
Support: 0.69925, 0.69894, 0.69802
Resistance: 0.69972, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6993 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6989 Asian high puts the 0.6980 swing low and the higher lows trendline back in play
Clean acceptance above the 0.7000 psych level extends the breakout leg past the session high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts (12:30 UTC) could shift the USD side during NY hours
Higher lows from 0.69704; Asian range and prior high broken.
Price cleared the asian high at 0.69894 late in Asia and the prior high at 0.69925 into the London open. It set a session high at 0.69972, just under the 0.7000 psych level, on a soft USD and the China data beat. RSI(14) is near 68, firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.69925, 0.69894, 0.69802
Resistance: 0.69972, 0.7000
What it said to watch
0.7000 psych and the 0.69972 session high are the area to watch for rejection or break
A close back below the 0.69925 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Losing the 0.69802 swing low and the higher-low line breaks the intraday higher-low chain
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC during NY hours could shift the USD side of the read
Higher lows 0.6970 → 0.6980; Asian high and prior high cleared, session high capped under 0.7000.
AUD cleared the Asian high at 0.6989 and the prior high at 0.6992 into the London open. That leg tagged a session high at 0.6997, just shy of 0.7000 psych, with the China data beats and a soft USD backdrop behind it. Higher lows at 0.6970 (post-LPR dip) and the 0.6980 swing low frame the move. RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched.
Support: 0.69925, 0.69894, 0.69802
Resistance: 0.69972, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6992 prior high and 0.6989 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 0.6997 session high / 0.7000 psych keeps the range top intact; acceptance above opens fresh intraday highs
Loss of the 0.6980 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline
US ADP and Housing Starts (12:15–12:30 UTC) during NY hours could shift the USD side of the read
Late Asia cleared the Asian range high and Monday's 0.69925 prior high, printing a 0.69948 session high. That extends the higher-low chain from the 0.69704 Asian low, set on the PBoC LPR dip, through the 0.69802 swing low, on China data beats and a soft USD. Price sits about 6 pips under 0.7000 psych into London open, with RSI(14) near 65, not stretched.
Support: 0.69925, 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69948, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Reaction at 0.7000 psych — area to watch for rejection or a clean break
M15 close back below the 0.69925 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.69802 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
US ADP 4-week average 12:15 UTC and housing starts/permits 12:30 UTC could shift this read
06:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asian low · RSI 62 · price 0.69918
Asian high broken early Europe, pressing prior-day high.
AUD took a leg up into early Europe on a soft USD and the China GDP beat, clearing the 0.6989 Asian high and pressing yesterday's 0.6993 prior high. The brief Asian low at 0.6970 around the PBoC LPR hold was absorbed and lows have stepped higher since; RSI(14) at 62 is not stretched.
Support: 0.6989, 0.6980, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.6993, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6989 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 0.6993 prior high opens the path to the 0.7000 psych / range top
Loss of the 0.6980 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
US ADP 4-week average and housing starts at 12:15–12:30 UTC could shift the read
Higher low at 0.6980 after Asia dip to 0.6970; pressing Asian high.
AUD/USD dipped to the 0.6970 Asian low around the unchanged PBOC LPRs, then recovered the full leg to the 0.6989 Asian high. The pullback held the 0.6980 swing low near the 50% retrace of that leg, and price is back at the Asian high ahead of London open, with Monday's 0.6993 prior high and the 0.7000 round number above it on a soft USD.
Support: 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6989 asian high and 0.6993 prior high puts the 0.7000 round number in play
Failure to hold the 0.6980 swing low (50% of the Asian leg) reopens the 0.6970 asian low
US ADP 4-week average, housing starts and permits at 12:15–12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
06:02 UTC
Neutral, compressing after Asia rebound · RSI 51 · price 0.69821
Tight 0.6980–0.6984 range inside the Asian range.
The early-Asia dip to the 0.6970 asian low came as PBOC left LPRs unchanged and was fully reversed into a 0.6989 asian high. Since 04:15 UTC price has compressed between the 0.6980 range low and 0.6984 range top, holding the 38.2% retrace of that leg ahead of London open, with ATR down near 3 pips.
Support: 0.69802, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69843, 0.69894, 0.69925
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6980 range low opens the 61.8% of the Asia leg and the 0.6970 asian low
Close above the 0.6984 range top puts the 0.6989 asian high and Monday's 0.6993 prior high back in play, with 0.7000 psych just above
London open in ~1h typically sets the break direction out of this compression
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone in NY hours
Inside Asian range, higher low at 0.6981 after a reversed dip.
It is late Asia session, about an hour before London open. AUDUSD is consolidating between 0.6981 and 0.6989, inside the Asian range of 0.69704–0.69894. The post-LPR dip below Monday's NY low reversed, and the pullback low at 0.69806 held near the 50% of the Asian rally. The Monday high at 0.69925 and the 0.70 psych level, where AUD has been stalling on unchanged PBOC rates, sit overhead with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.69806, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
London-session break and hold above the asian high 0.69894 exposes the monday high 0.69925 and the 0.70 psych level
Failure to hold the pullback low 0.69806 reopens the asian low 0.69704 and invalidates the higher-low read
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) in the NY session could shift the intraday read
05:32 UTC
Two-way, fading off Asia high · RSI 52 · price 0.69823
Lower highs inside 0.6970–0.6989 Asian range, base at 0.6981.
Late Asia: the PBOC LPR hold drove a false break of Monday's NY low to the 0.6970 Asia low. That dip fully reversed to a 0.6989 Asia high, and price now sits on the 38.2% fib and swing low near 0.6981 after a run of lower highs. Price is hugging EMA20 with ATR near 3 pips into London open; Monday high 0.6993 and 0.7000 psych still cap.
Support: 0.6981, 0.6974, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.6981 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 0.6980 and the NY low at 0.6974
London close above the 0.6989 Asia high puts the Monday high at 0.6993 and 0.7000 psych back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6970 Asia low negates the post-LPR recovery and the false-break read
US housing starts and building permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
05:16 UTC
Range-bound, fading from the Asian high · RSI 52 · price 0.69813
Lower highs off 0.6989, holding the 50% fib inside the Asian range.
The Asia session dipped to the asian low at 0.6970 after the unchanged PBOC LPRs, then recovered to the asian high at 0.6989. Price has since printed lower highs and sits on the 50% fib near 0.6980, mid-range. Yesterday's NY prior high at 0.6993 and 0.7000 psych sit just above.
Support: 0.6980, 0.69777, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 0.6978 exposes the asian low at 0.6970
Break of the lower-highs line and a close above the 0.6989 asian high puts the 0.6993 prior high and 0.7000 psych in play
London open in under 2h is likely to decide which side of the Asian range gives first
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone into NY
05:03 UTC
Two-way, recovering from Asia dip, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 0.69824
Asian range 0.6970–0.6989 with a higher low; pullback holding above 0.6981.
AUDUSD dipped to the 0.6970 asian low around the unchanged PBOC LPR fix, then rebounded to a 0.6989 asian high during Tokyo, just shy of Monday's 0.6993 prior high. Price has eased back to the 38.2% retrace near 0.6982 and sits on the EMA20, with the 0.6981 swing low and the rising trendline as the near-term pivot.
Support: 0.69809, 0.69799, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6981 swing low and rising trendline exposes the 50% fib at 0.6980, then the 0.6970 asian low
Break of the 0.6989 asian high and 0.6993 prior high brings 0.7000 psych into play
London open in ~2h is likely to set direction out of the Asian range
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
Lower high at 0.6989 under Monday's 0.6993 high; higher low off the 0.6970 Asian low.
Late Asia session: AUDUSD sits mid-range at 0.6983. It dipped to the 0.6970 Asian low after the unchanged PBOC LPRs, then rebounded to an Asian high of 0.6989, a lower high under Monday's 0.6993 rejection below the 0.7000 psych level. The pullback low at 0.6981 is holding near the 50% retracement of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 54, price just above EMA20 and ATR(14) around 31 pips.
Support: 0.69809, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6981 pullback low exposes the 0.6970 Asian low and turns the Asian rebound into a failed leg
Break above the 0.6989 Asian high and the 0.6993 Monday high puts the 0.7000 psych range top in play, where heavy spec AUD shorts add squeeze risk
London open in about 2h typically resolves the Asian range; US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone
Lower high at 0.69894 under 0.69925, pulling back into Asia rally.
Late in the Asia session, AUD bounced from the asia low at 0.69704, set after the unchanged PBOC LPRs. The rally stalled at a 0.69894 session high, a lower high under Monday's 0.69925 prior high. Price has eased onto the 38.2% retrace at 0.6982 and is sitting on EMA20, with RSI(14) back to 52.
Support: 0.6980, 0.69739, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.6980 round number and the 50% retrace keeps the Asia rebound intact; losing it exposes Monday's ny low at 0.69739
M15 close below the 0.69704 asia low confirms a lower-low within the 0.6970–0.6993 range
Close above the 0.69894 session high and 0.69925 prior high, breaking the lower-highs line, opens a test of the 0.7000 psych
London open in ~2.5h; US Housing Starts at 12:30 UTC could shift the read
04:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, pulling back · RSI 58 · price 0.69831
V-recovery from 0.6970 stalled at a lower high; retracing into the 38.2% fib.
The Asia session dipped to a 0.6970 session low after the PBOC left its LPRs unchanged. It then recovered to an Asian high at 0.6989, a rejection that leaves lower highs under Monday's 0.6993 prior high. Price is holding the 38.2% fib at 0.6982 with RSI(14) near 58, just above EMA20.
Support: 0.69821, 0.6980, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 50% fib at 0.6980 would expose the 0.6970 session low.
A close above the 0.6989 asian high and the 0.6993 prior high breaks the lower highs and brings 0.7000 psych into view, the top of the multi-week range.
US Housing Starts and Building Permits (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled USD risk; AU flash PMIs are not until Thursday.
Higher-low chain off Asian low, capped under 0.6990–0.6993.
Asia dipped to the 0.6970 Asian low after the unchanged PBOC LPRs, then retraced the whole drop on a higher-low chain before rejection at the 0.6989 Asian high, just under Monday's 0.6993 prior high. Late-Asia pullback is holding above the 0.6983 swing low near the 38.2% retrace. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 0.69826, 0.69744, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6993 prior high breaks the 24h range top and puts the 0.7000 psych level in play
Close below the 0.6983 swing low exposes the Monday NY low at 0.6974 and the 0.6970 Asian low
London open in ~3h is the next likely volatility window; US housing data lands later in the NY session
03:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 63 · price 0.69875
HH/HL chain off the 0.6970 Asian low, capped below Monday high.
Late in the Asia session, the Asian rally has fully retraced the dip to the 0.6970 asian low that followed the unchanged PBOC LPRs. That dip briefly undercut Monday's NY lows before a false break and reclaim. Price is stalling at the 0.6989 asian high, just under the 0.6990–0.6992 monday high zone that capped four times on Monday, with RSI(14) at 63 and not stretched.
Support: 0.69857, 0.69805, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6992 monday high exposes the 0.7000 psych range top; another cap there keeps price inside Monday's range
Break of the 0.6986 swing low and the rising trendline signals the Asian rally stalling into London open
Loss of the 0.6980 higher low, near the 38.2% asian rally fib, undoes the recovery and puts the 0.6970 asian low back in focus
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
Higher-low chain off the Asian low, capped under Monday high.
Asia session fully recovered the dip to the 0.6970 asian low that followed unchanged PBOC LPRs, building a clean higher-low chain to a session high at 0.6989, just shy of the 0.6993 monday high. Price is easing off that asian high. RSI(14) is near 56 and price sits above EMA20/50, with the 0.7000 psych range top 14 pips overhead.
Support: 0.69826, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6993 monday high exposes the 0.7000 psych range top, where heavy AUD spec shorts add squeeze risk
Break below the 0.6983 swing low breaks the rising support trendline and the higher-low chain
Failure back under the 0.6970 asian low turns the Asia recovery into a false break
US ADP and Housing Starts at 12:15–12:30Z could shift USD tone into the NY session
03:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since 01:00 UTC · RSI 63 · price 0.69864
V-recovery from session low, pressing Asian session high.
Unchanged PBOC LPRs knocked AUD to a session low of 0.6970 at 01:00 UTC. The dip below Monday's NY low at 0.6974 was a false break. It has since retraced the full Asia drop on a higher-low chain and is pressing the 0.6987 session high, with the 0.6983 pivot just beneath, RSI(14) 63 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.6983, 0.69744, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69872, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6993 prior high opens the 0.7000 psych level, the top of the three-week range
Failure back under the 0.6983 pivot turns the push into a rejection at the session high
Loss of the 0.6974 NY low and the 0.6970 session low undoes the false-break read
Price below the fib 50% at 0.6979 marks a deeper fade of the Asia recovery
London open liquidity could test the Asian range either way; US Housing Starts at 12:30Z are next on the USD side
02:46 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from Asia dip · RSI 55 · price 0.69829
Higher lows off the Asia low beneath a falling line of lower highs.
Unchanged PBOC LPRs knocked AUD off its 0.6986 Asia high to the 0.6970 Asia low. Demand stepped in there, and a chain of higher lows has since lifted price back to 0.6983, near the 78.6% retrace of the Asia drop. The falling line of lower highs from the 0.6993 Monday high (set in NY) is capping price just overhead.
Support: 0.69805, 0.69739, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69862, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6986 Asia high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.6993 Monday high, then 0.7000 psych.
Loss of the 0.6981 higher low ends the recovery chain and puts the 0.6974 NY low and 0.6970 Asia low back in focus.
London open and US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD flows and break the session range.
02:31 UTC
Intraday recovery inside Asian range · RSI 51 · price 0.69811
HH/HL chain off the post-LPR low, testing upper Asian range.
Mid-Asia session. The unchanged PBOC LPRs knocked AUDUSD from the 0.6986 asia high to the 0.6970 asia low, a brief false break under yesterday's 0.6974 NY low. Price has since retraced roughly three-quarters of that drop on a clean HH/HL chain, last hl pivot at 0.6977, with RSI(14) neutral near 51. Prior high at 0.6992 and the 0.7000 psych level sit above the Asian range.
Support: 0.69773, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69862, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6986 asia high takes price back toward the 0.6992 prior high and the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.6977 hl pivot breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.6970 asia low turns the LPR dip into a lower-low
London open is the next likely range-expansion point for the Asian range
02:02 UTC
Sideways after Monday's fade from 0.6992 · RSI 49 · price 0.69784
Asian range 0.6970–0.6986, both edges rejected.
After the China GDP-driven bid stalled at the 0.6992 monday high in NY, the Asia session rejected a push to the 0.6986 asia high and flushed to the 0.6970 asia low, briefly undercutting Monday's NY low. Price has since recovered to the 50% asia fib near 0.6978 and sits on EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 0.69704, 0.69685
Resistance: 0.69862, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6986 asia high reopens the 0.6992 monday high and the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.6970 asia low exposes the 0.6969 prior low from Monday's London open
Rejection at the lower highs trendline keeps the Asian range intact into London open
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
01:46 UTC
Intraday range after rally, lower high forming · RSI 46 · price 0.69769
Monday rally 0.6968–0.6992 retracing; Asian spike rejected, mid-range near 61.8%.
Monday's China GDP-led bid peaked at the 0.6992 prior high in NY. Tuesday's Asian session spiked to a 0.6986 asian high and was rejected, a lower high on the trendline. Price slid to a 0.6970 asian low before recovering to 0.6977, near the 61.8% retrace of the Monday rally, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.69704, 0.69685
Resistance: 0.69862, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6986 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.6992 prior high and 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the 0.6970 asian low exposes the 0.6968 monday low and a full retrace of the rally
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC are second-tier USD risk later in the session
Lower high at 0.6986 under the 0.6993 prior high, Asia session low at 0.6970.
Early in the Asia session, a push to the 0.6986 session high was rejected and price slid to a 0.6970 session low. That move gave back most of Monday's China-GDP-driven rally from the 0.6969 London low to the 0.6993 prior high. Price sits below EMA20/50 near the 78.6% retracement of that rally with RSI(14) at 42, and the lower high keeps the descending line from the prior high intact.
Support: 0.69704, 0.69685
Resistance: 0.69862, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6970 session low exposes the 0.6969 London low and a full retrace of Monday's rally
Recovery above the 0.6986 session high breaks the descending line and reopens the 0.6993 prior high
The 0.7000 round number remains the range ceiling above the prior high
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
Lower high at 0.6986 under Monday's 0.6993 peak; price retesting the NY low.
Monday's China GDP-led push stalled at the 0.6993 Monday high. The early Asia session then rejected the 0.6986 Asia high, a lower high on the falling trendline. Price is back at the 0.6974 NY low with RSI(14) near 43 and below both EMAs. The bounce high at 0.6982 is the nearest cap.
Support: 0.69739, 0.69685
Resistance: 0.69815, 0.69862, 0.69925
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6974 NY low exposes the 0.6969 london low and confirms a lower-low
Recovery above the 0.6982 bounce high and the 0.6986 asia high breaks the falling trendline from the monday high
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC in NY session could reset the intraday range
Asian range 0.6976–0.6986 inside Monday's 0.6969–0.6993 swing; higher lows from NY low.
Monday's China GDP-led bid stalled at the 0.6993 monday high, and NY pulled back to the 0.6974 ny low. Early Asia session spiked to the 0.6986 session high, then reversed to the 0.6976 session low. Price is back near 0.6981, the 50% of Monday's rally, hugging flat EMAs with higher lows intact.
Support: 0.69759, 0.69739, 0.69685
Resistance: 0.69862, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Break above the 0.6986 session high reopens the 0.6993 monday high and the 0.7000 psych range top
Loss of the 0.6976 session low and the higher lows line exposes the 0.6974 ny low, then the 0.6969 london low
London open is the next range test; US ADP and housing data from 12:15 UTC could shift the read
00:32 UTC
Intraday range, fading from Monday high · RSI 51 · price 0.69784
Lower highs from 0.6993, floor at 0.6974 NY low.
The China GDP-driven London breakout peaked at the 0.6993 Monday high in NY, then faded to the 0.6974 NY low. The early-Tokyo push to 0.6986 printed another lower high and was rejected to a 0.6976 Tokyo low. Price sits on the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg near 0.6978, just under EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral at ~51 and ATR ~2.6 pips.
Support: 0.69759, 0.69739, 0.69685
Resistance: 0.69862, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6974 NY low exposes the 0.6969 London low and a full retrace of the London-NY leg
An M15 close above the 0.6986 Tokyo spike breaks the lower-highs line; the 0.6993 Monday high and 0.7000 psych sit above
0.7000 is the range top flagged in the AUD digest, so rejection risk rises into that area
00:02 UTC
Recovering after NY pullback, momentum mild · RSI 64 · price 0.69825
Rising lows off 0.69739 NY low, pressing session high at the 50% retrace.
AUD broke the Asian range in London and printed a 0.69925 day high in NY on the China GDP beat. Price then saw rejection and faded to the 0.69739 NY low. Rising lows through the rollover low have carried price back to the 0.69834 session high in thin early Asia, at the 50% retrace of that pullback, with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR around 2 pips.
Support: 0.6977, 0.69739
Resistance: 0.69834, 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69834 session high and the 50% retrace opens the path back to the 0.69925 day high
Failure to hold the 0.6977 rollover low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.69739 NY low
0.7000 psych is the range top in the digest and the next reference above the day high
Asia liquidity is thin; ranges near 2 pips can expand at the London open