21:06 UTC
Uptrend, corrective pullback stalling · RSI 48 · price 0.71366
Higher highs since late-June low, first lower high after 0.7237.
Three-month uptrend off the late-June low at 0.6865 topped out at the 0.7237 sept high, and the last two weeks have been a corrective retest that found demand at the 0.7074 swing low before recovering to 0.7137. Price is back above a slowly rising ema50 near 0.7114 but capped by the ema20 around 0.7141, with RSI(14) at 48 — neutral after cycling down from the early-September peak. The bounce lines up with hawkish RBA commentary from Bullock reviving next-week hike pricing, while the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike and US 10s near 5% keep the pair pinned under the prior-high band.
Support: 0.7114, 0.7074, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7141, 0.7180, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 0.7180 prior high would re-open the 0.7237 sept high
- Failure to hold the 0.7074 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes 0.7050 round number
- Loss of the ema50 at 0.7114 on a closing basis would weaken the uptrend read
- RBA Bullock Tue and Australian labour force Thu, plus US PMIs Wed, are the catalysts capable of resolving this range