21:08 UTC
Uptrend, corrective pullback · RSI 48 · price 0.71181
Higher highs / higher lows since the late-June base, now a two-week lower-high sequence off 0.7237.
Quarter-long recovery off the late-June 0.6865 base has stalled: price topped at the 0.7237 swing high and has spent the last eight sessions grinding sideways between the 0.7086 swing low and the 0.7140 range cap, with the daily close now back below EMA20 but still just above a slowly rising ema50 at 0.7109. RSI(14) has cycled down from the mid-60s to roughly 47, consistent with a pause inside a trend rather than a reversal. The duelling-hawks backdrop explains the stall — ~94% odds of an RBA hike on 29 Sep are offset by a Fed that hiked and flagged more, so the AUD's strength is expressing itself on crosses rather than versus USD.
Support: 0.7109, 0.7086, 0.7042
Resistance: 0.7140, 0.7200, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- Australian labour force report Thu 24 Sep 01:30 UTC — a soft print is the main risk to the higher-low sequence
- Daily close above the 0.7140 range cap would re-open 0.7200 psych and the 0.7237 swing high
- Daily close below the 0.7086 swing low would confirm a lower low and put the 0.7042 prior low back in play
- Loss of the ema50 at 0.7109 on a closing basis would weaken the swing-trend filter
- US flash PMIs 23 Sep and the RBA statement 29 Sep are the two events capable of resetting this range