The summer rally off the Jun 30 low at 0.6865 peaked at the sept high of 0.7237 on Sep 9, and the pair has printed lower highs since, most recently a rejection at 0.7140. Wednesday's close at 0.7064 broke the prior week's 0.7105–0.7140 range and undercut the Sep 16 low at 0.7074, leaving a broken low and the first lower low of the move. The break came as the blowout US flash PMIs and DXY above 101 met soft Aussie PMIs. Price is now below EMA20 (~0.7131) and EMA50 (~0.7095), sitting just above the 50% fib of the summer rally at 0.7051.
Support: 0.7051, 0.7000, 0.6912
Resistance: 0.7074, 0.7140, 0.7237
What it said to watch
D1 close below the 50% fib at 0.7051 and the summer trendline near 0.7030 exposes 0.7000 psych, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement at 0.7007
Loss of 0.7000 puts the july low at 0.6912, the last higher low of the summer rally, back in focus
A recovery above the broken low at 0.7074 and EMA50 near 0.7095 would neutralise the lower-low read; the 0.7140 lower high is the level that caps the sequence
AU jobs data Thu 01:30 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 29 Sep (hike to 4.60% expected) could materially shift this read
DXY holding above 101.00 on Thursday's US jobless claims and Fed speakers keeps pressure on the 0.7051–0.7000 zone
Lower highs from 0.72374, first daily close under EMA(50).
The advance off the June trough at 0.68649 peaked at 0.72374 in early September and has since built a chain of lower highs; today's close at 0.70658 is the first daily close beneath both the EMA(20) at 0.7130 and the EMA(50) at 0.7107, with the latter now flattening. The soft Australian flash PMIs (composite 50.8 from 52.7) forced the break of the 0.7095 area — the 38.2% retracement of the June-September swing — after eight sessions of compression above it, leaving the 50% marker at roughly 0.7050 psych as the next reference under the 0.70635 monthly low. RSI(14) at 41 is falling but not yet stretched, and ATR(14) near 41 pips shows daily ranges holding close to their two-month norm.
Support: 0.70635, 0.7050, 0.7022
Resistance: 0.71075, 0.7130, 0.72374
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.70635 monthly low would extend the lower-low sequence toward 0.70500 psych and the 0.70220 prior swing
A daily close back above the 0.71075 ema50, and then the 0.71300 ema20, would repair the break and re-establish the prior band
Australian labour force report Thu 24 Sep 01:30 UTC is the immediate swing factor for the D1 structure
RBA decision Tue 29 Sep (hike to 4.60% near fully priced) could materially reset this read