12:37 UTC
Range-bound above 2025 base, macro uptrend intact · RSI 53 · price 0.70669
Range 0.6833–0.7277 since Q1 2026, rising lows, lower high in Sept.
AUDUSD has traded a 0.6833–0.7277 range since the January 2026 breakout above the 2025 range top near 0.6725, with rising lows in March and at the June low of 0.6865. The September rally stalled at 0.7237, a lower high beneath the 0.7277 YTD high, and this week's rejection has price back under EMA(20) but still above the psych 0.7000 handle and a rising EMA(50) near 0.698. The pullback comes as hawkish Fed repricing lifts the USD leg, while a near-fully priced RBA hike keeps AUD supported inside the range.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6865, 0.6725
Resistance: 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below psych 0.7000 and EMA(50) shifts the regime read from range to reversion
- Failure to hold the june low at 0.6865 breaks the rising-lows trendline
- Weekly close above the 0.7277 ytd high resolves the range higher; the sept high at 0.7237 caps first
- Australian jobs data Thu and RBA decision 29 Sep could materially shift this read
- A weak jobs print that pares RBA hike pricing, alongside Fed hike odds holding near 89%, would add pressure on the 0.7000 area