19:05 UTC
Uptrend, stalled into broad range · RSI 55 · price 0.71079
Higher lows intact but capped by a five-month range top.
The macro regime is a maturing uptrend off the 0.5913 low that has flattened since Q2 into a broad 0.6865–0.7277 range, and the last two months have been an attempt at the upper boundary rather than a trend extension. Price holds above both the W1 EMA(50) near 0.6970 and the 0.7000 psych level, so the higher-low sequence from last year is intact, but the 0.7237 prior high produced another rejection this week with the bar closing back at 0.7108 as the hawkish Fed hike to 4% lifted the dollar to seven-week highs. RSI at 55 is mid-range and carries no information at this scale — the regime question is simply whether the range top at 0.7277 caps again despite Australia's 4.35% cash-rate premium.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6970, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7140, 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above 0.7277 would break the range top and end the five-month range read
- Loss of the 0.7000 psych level and the W1 EMA(50) at 0.6970 would put the range floor at 0.6865 back in play
- Australian labour market data and the 29 Sep RBA decision are the near-term inputs into the priced hiking path
- Failure to reclaim 0.7140 keeps price in the lower half of the recent two-month congestion