Higher lows since Q2 2025, six-month range at the highs.
Weekly regime is an uptrend that began at the Q2 2025 low near 0.5913 and has carried price roughly thirteen figures to the 0.7277 window high, but the advance has flattened into a six-month range between the 0.6865 swing low and the 0.7240 cap. Price holds above both the 0.7080 ema20 and a rising W1 EMA(50) near 0.6985, so macro structure is intact even after the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% pushed AUD back off the 0.7237 prior high and produced a rejection candle into last week's close at 0.7106. RSI(14) near 56 is mid-range and gives no weekly extreme, leaving the read as trend-in-pause rather than trend-in-reversal.
Support: 0.7080, 0.7000, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
A weekly close below the 0.7000 round number would break the sequence of higher lows and re-expose the 0.6865 swing low
A weekly close above the 0.7277 window high would resolve the six-month range higher
Repeated failure at the 0.7237 prior high would harden the 0.7240 cap into a distribution ceiling
RBA Bullock tonight and the Sep 29 RBA decision are the nearest catalysts able to reshape this weekly read
Higher lows since January; five-month consolidation 0.6875-0.7277, price mid-upper half.
Macro regime is still an uptrend: the pair has advanced from the 0.6680 base since the January breakout and trades well above a rising W1 EMA(50) at 0.6947. The last five months, however, are a broad consolidation between the 0.6875 swing low and the 0.7277 yearly high, with supply repeatedly capping at the 0.7237 prior high and the 0.7200 round number now the pivot. This week's bar closed at 0.71057 after the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% pulled AUD back off the highs; RSI(14) near 55 is mid-range and carries no weekly extreme.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6947, 0.6875
Resistance: 0.7200, 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
A weekly close below the 0.7000 psych level would break the higher-low sequence and put the 0.6875 swing low back in focus
Acceptance above the 0.7237 prior high and 0.7277 yearly high would resume the trend leg out of consolidation
A retreat to the W1 EMA50 at 0.6947 would be the first test of macro trend support since Q1
RBA decision on Sep 29 and continued Fed hawkishness are the catalysts capable of resolving the range in either direction
Higher highs since Q1, now ranging under the 2026 high.
Regime is a broad uptrend that began with the Q1 2026 breakout above the 0.6690 base, carrying price from the April 2025 low at 0.5913 to the 2026 high at 0.7277 in May; since then the market has been ranging roughly 0.6875-0.7277 rather than extending. Price at 0.7107 holds above a rising W1 EMA(50), so the macro structure is intact, but last week's rejection from 0.7166 after the prior bar's 0.7237 probe shows supply capping the advance under the round number at 0.7200. RSI near 55 is mid-range and tells little at this timeframe; the medium-term driver remains a USD caught between the -23K payroll shock and episodic safe-haven demand, with RBA policy tone the domestic offset.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6875, 0.6756
Resistance: 0.7200, 0.7277
What it said to watch
Weekly close above the 0.7277 2026 high would confirm range expansion higher
Repeated failure under 0.7200 round number keeps the multi-quarter range read in force
Loss of 0.7000 psych on a weekly close, then 0.6875 swing low, would break the Q2-Q3 base
US CPI and the RBA statement/press conference are the near-term events capable of resetting this range