Higher highs since late June broken by a lower high; pullback into EMA(50).
The three-month advance off the late-June 0.68649 low built a clean chain of higher lows, but the 0.72374 print eight sessions ago has since been rejected and four of the last five daily candles closed lower, taking price back to the EMA(50) at 0.71090 after this week's hawkish Fed hike compressed Australia's yield advantage. Last session's 0.70744 weekly low was bought back into a 0.71119 close, so the pullback is holding the rising support line from June for now while price trades below the EMA(20) at 0.71430. RSI(14) has cycled down to the low-40s from overbought territory — corrective rather than exhausted, with the 0.71430–0.72000 band the immediate supply shelf.
Support: 0.7109, 0.70744, 0.7022
Resistance: 0.7143, 0.7200, 0.72374
What it said to watch
Daily close below 0.71090 (ema50) and 0.70744 would confirm the first lower low of the sequence and expose 0.70220
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.71430 and closing above it would neutralise the current pullback read
RBA Bullock remarks tonight and again 22 Sep — RBA hike pricing near 78% is the main repricing risk
Australian employment report 24 Sep and 23 Sep US PMIs could materially shift this weekly structure
Higher highs since late-June low, first lower-high sequence forming under 0.7237.
The dominant structure is still the rally off the late-June 0.6865 low, a chain of higher lows that carried price to 0.7237 in the second week of September — the leg through August was fuelled by the shock -23K US payrolls print that knocked the dollar. That advance has stalled: the last six sessions have printed a lower high and a lower low, price has closed back under the 0.7167 ema20 and is now sitting directly on a flattening ema50 near 0.7100, with RSI(14) fading to the low-40s. Daily ranges of roughly 40 pips show a market consolidating rather than trending, pinned between the 0.7074 swing low and the ema20.
Support: 0.7100, 0.7074, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7167, 0.7237
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 0.7074 swing low confirms a lower-low and puts the ema50 shelf behind price
Reclaiming 0.7167 ema20 on a close would repair the higher-low chain and re-expose 0.7237 prior high
Sustained trade under 0.7074 leaves the 0.7000 round number as the next major pivot from the June base
US inflation data on the USD side remains the main macro risk capable of resetting this weekly cadence