Stair-step decline off 0.7237; bounce capped under the broken range floor.
Sequential lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 print three weeks ago, with the mid-window 0.7185 prior high and the 0.7148 ema50 both left overhead after the hawkish FOMC hike narrowed Australia's rate advantage. The tight 0.7126-0.7136 shelf gave way in a single wide bar to 0.70744, and the recovery has stalled at 0.7110-0.7120, i.e. a retest of the broken range floor from below. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 16 pips from sub-12 pip compression, so the move is in an expansion regime rather than a coiling one.
Support: 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7130, 0.7148, 0.71853
What it said to watch
H4 closes back above the 0.7130 range floor would neutralise the breakout read; 0.7148 ema50 is the next cap
A close below the 0.70744 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.7050 psych level
RBA Governor Bullock's remarks and next week's Australian labour report are the near-term structural risks to this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 swing high; price below ema20 and ema50.
AUDUSD has been carving lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 swing high, and the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% narrowed the rate gap and forced the break of the 0.7128-0.7136 prior range, with the impulse extending to a 0.70744 week low. The bounce off that low has stalled straight back into the broken prior range floor, with ema20 and ema50 both overhead — ema50 sits near 0.7145 alongside the next resistance shelf. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 16 pips from the sub-12 compression that preceded the break, so the move is in an expansion rather than a coiling regime.
Support: 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7131, 0.7145, 0.71853
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above 0.7145 (ema50) would end the lower-high sequence that has held for two weeks
Failure to hold the 0.70744 week low confirms continuation and exposes the 0.7050 round number
Sustained trade back inside 0.7131 prior range would invalidate the range-break read
RBA Bullock speech at 23:30 GMT is the near-term event risk into the next H4 bars
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak; broke the multi-day 0.7126-0.7136 shelf.
Three weeks of higher highs into 0.7237 have fully reversed: the pair set a sequence of lower highs and then lost the tight 0.7126-0.7136 shelf on a single 64-pip H4 bar into 0.70744, the swing low of the window. Price is back below both EMA20 and EMA50 after the hawkish Fed hike narrowed Australia's rate advantage, and the bounce has stalled just under the psych 0.7100 handle with the broken shelf now overhead. ATR(14) near 18 pips is expanding versus the sub-12-pip compression of the prior week, so the range regime that dominated the middle of the window has given way.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.7130, 0.7140, 0.7185
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.71300 would invalidate the range break and put the 0.71400 prior high back in scope
Failure to hold 0.71000 psych re-exposes the 0.70744 swing low
RBA Governor Bullock speaking 23:30 GMT is the first domestic read post-Fed and could materially shift this read
Australian labour market report on 24 Sep sits beyond the current structure but frames the late-September RBA pricing
Impulsive break of the 0.7130 shelf, corrective bounce into broken support.
Sequence of lower highs since the 0.72374 print three weeks ago is intact, and the tight 0.7126-0.7136 consolidation gave way with a 64-pip expansion bar that swept 0.70744 before closing back near the 0.7100 psych pivot — the hawkish Fed hike and ~5% US yields the driver behind the leg lower. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the EMAs stacked bearishly after the cross earlier in the window. ATR(14) near 16.5 pips has expanded off the compression seen through the mid-window range, consistent with trend extension rather than balance; the bounce so far is stalling under the broken range floor at 0.7130.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7130, 0.71486, 0.7175
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 acceptance back above the 0.7130 range floor would invalidate the range break read
Consecutive closes below the 0.7100 psych pivot keeps 0.70744 swing low and the 0.7050 round number in focus
Rallies capped at the 0.71486 lower high would keep the lower-high sequence intact; a close above 0.7175 (caps rallies) breaks it
RBA Governor Bullock 23:30 GMT is the nearest AUD catalyst and could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has been carving lower highs and lower lows since the 0.72374 four-month peak, and the hawkish Fed hike plus the AI-led equity selloff extended that sequence into a flush through the 0.7130 range floor to a 0.70744 swing low. Price has since recovered to 0.71096 but remains beneath both the EMA20 and EMA50, with 0.7130 now acting as the retest ceiling and 0.71750 the level that has capped rallies for the past week. ATR(14) near 17 pips reflects an expansion phase rather than compression — the single 64-pip bar on the break did most of the work.
Support: 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7130, 0.7175, 0.71871
What it said to watch
H4 closes back above 0.71300 would negate the range break and put 0.71750 back in focus
Sustained trade below the 0.70744 swing low exposes the 0.70500 round number
RBA Governor Bullock speaks 23:30 GMT — the nearest AUD catalyst and capable of reshaping this read within the next two bars
Failure to hold 0.7100 on a closing basis confirms the lower-low sequence remains intact
Broken consolidation, price retesting the range base from below.
Sequence of lower highs from 0.71871 has held for two weeks, and the ten-bar 0.71167-0.71364 consolidation broke down with a 64-pip impulse bar to 0.70744 — the widest range in the window against a 15.8-pip ATR(14), so volatility is expanding rather than compressing. Price has since recovered to 0.71076 and is retesting the range base from underneath, with both EMA20 and EMA50 overhead. The digest ties the fade in the earlier NFP-driven pop to a renewed USD safe-haven bid, which fits the loss of the 0.7130s shelf.
Support: 0.70744, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.71364, 0.71504, 0.71871
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close back above the 0.71364 range base would invalidate the range break read
Failure to reclaim 0.71364 and a close below 0.70744 confirms the next lower low toward the 0.7000 psych level
Acceptance above the 0.71504 prior high would break the chain of lower highs
RBA statement tone and the next US CPI print are the macro risks that could reset this structure
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; below broken range floor.
Lower highs have stacked up since the 0.7237 peak (0.7185, 0.7166, 0.7138) and the tight two-day compression between 0.7120 and the 0.7130 range floor broke lower, with one bar covering 64 pips into 0.70744 as the USD safe-haven bid on Hormuz headlines unwound the post-NFP AUD pop. Price has since recovered to the 0.7100 round number and is now retesting the underside of the broken range floor, but it remains under both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI near 43. ATR(14) at ~16 pips is expanding off the pre-break compression, consistent with the impulse leg rather than a completed base.
Support: 0.7100, 0.7086, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.7130, 0.71384, 0.71663
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7130 range floor would invalidate the range-break read and put the 0.7138 prior high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.7086 reaction low confirms continuation toward the 0.70744 swing low
Acceptance below the 0.70744 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
RBA decision and statement tone is the near-term event risk capable of resetting this structure