AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:06 UTC
Downtrend stalled, now range-bound · RSI 48 · price 0.71164
Lower highs since 0.72374, but basing above 0.7092.
The impulsive slide from 0.72374 into the 0.70744 month low has given way to a two-week consolidation between the 0.7100 range floor and the 0.71398 range high, with the 38.2% retracement of that down-leg sitting right on the upper edge. Price is pinned under the EMA50 near 0.7126 with EMA20 flat just overhead and the 0.71504 prior high untested since, a stand-off consistent with duelling hawks — a 25bp Fed hike with more flagged against ~94% odds of an RBA hike on 29 Sep. ATR(14) near 18 pips and a 0.70919 higher low against 0.70744 show the range compressing rather than trending.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70919, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.7126, 0.71398, 0.71504
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.71398 range high would end the two-week consolidation and put the 0.71504 prior high in play
Loss of the 0.7100 range floor confirms a break lower toward the 0.70919 swing low and 0.70744 month low
Reclaiming and holding the EMA50 near 0.7126 would flip the lower-high sequence to neutral
Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT could materially shift this range read
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, range floor broken · RSI 33 · price 0.70979
Sequence of lower highs; latest close below the 0.7105 range floor.
Lower highs have stacked up since the 0.72374 peak, and the bounce off the 0.70744 sept low stalled at the 38.2% retrace near 0.7137, leaving the 0.71398 prior high as the cap. The latest bar closes at 0.70979, below the 0.7105 range floor that contained the past five sessions, with price under both EMA20 (~0.7115) and EMA50 (~0.7135). Duelling hawks — the Fed's 25bp hike versus ~94% odds of an RBA move on 29 Sep — have kept the pair compressed rather than trending, and ATR(14) near 16 pips reflects that low-volatility regime.
Support: 0.70919, 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7105, 0.71398
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 0.7105 range floor would negate the breakdown read and restore the prior range
Failure to hold the 0.70919 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.70744 sept low, then the 0.7050 round number
Reclaiming the 0.71398 prior high would break the lower-highs sequence
Australian PMIs at 23:00 UTC and the labour force report Thu 24 Sep 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.7237, flat base 0.7092-0.7140.
AUDUSD has rolled over from the 0.7237 window high into a clean lower-high sequence, and since the 0.70744 swing low price has been pinned in a tight 0.7092-0.7140 band with EMA20 now back beneath EMA50. ATR(14) near 15 pips is roughly half the readings seen in the first half of the window — compression directly under the 0.71398 range top, consistent with a near-fully-priced RBA hike being offset by a hawkish-Fed dollar. The 0.70919 recent low marks the base of that shelf, while the 0.7166 pivot is the first lower high overhead.
Support: 0.70919, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71398, 0.7166
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.71398 range top would break the consolidation and put the 0.7166 pivot in play
Failure to hold the 0.70919 recent low re-opens the 0.70744 swing low
EMA20 holding below EMA50 keeps the lower-high structure intact; a recross would neutralise it
Australian labour force data Thu 24 Sep 01:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.72374; sideways above the 0.7074 range low.
A clean sequence of lower highs runs from 0.72374 down through 0.71871 and most recently 0.71400, with the last ten bars compressing between the 0.70979 swing low and the 0.7140 prior highs — twice rejected there. Price closed at 0.71011 back under both the EMA20 near 0.71195 and the EMA50, keeping the impulse fib off the 0.72374 high into the 0.70744 range low as the governing structure; twin hawkish central banks have left AUD firm but capped, with the Sep 29 RBA hike already ~94% priced. ATR(14) near 16 pips is subdued relative to the 44-pip range bar on the drop to 0.70744, consistent with compression inside the larger downtrend.
Support: 0.70979, 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.71195, 0.7140, 0.71871
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 0.71400 prior highs would break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 0.70979 swing low re-exposes the 0.70744 range low, and below that the 0.7050 round number
Reclaim of the 0.71195 ema20 on a closing basis would neutralise the near-term downside pressure
Australian labour force data Thu 01:30 UTC and the Sep 29 RBA decision can materially reset this range read
Lower highs since 0.7237, basing above 0.7074 in a 0.7074-0.7140 range.
The H4 series has carved a clear sequence of lower highs from 0.7237 through 0.7185 and 0.7168, with the impulse leg ending at the 0.7074 swing low before a shallow recovery; EMA20 sits beneath EMA50 after the bearish cross and price is pinned between them. Since that low the market has traded a tight 0.7074-0.7140 band, with the range floor around 0.7105 absorbing repeated dips and the 0.7140 range cap capping every attempt higher — the hawkish Fed hike and near-fully-priced RBA hike broadly cancelling each other out. ATR(14) near 17 pips marks a visible compression versus the earlier expansion bars, consistent with a coiling range rather than trend continuation.
Support: 0.7105, 0.7088, 0.7074
Resistance: 0.7140, 0.7168, 0.7185
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7140 range cap invalidates the range read and exposes the 0.7168 swing high
Loss of the 0.7105 range floor and the 0.7088 prior high re-opens the 0.7074 swing low
EMA20 reclaiming EMA50 would neutralise the lower-high structure
Australian employment Thu 01:30 UTC and US PMIs Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.72374; higher lows since 0.70744 inside a compressing wedge.
The dominant H4 sequence is still lower highs from 0.72374 through the 0.71663 lower high, but the leg down from that pivot bottomed at 0.70744 and price has since ground out higher lows into a rising wedge. The bounce has twice failed under the 0.71398 week high and the last two bars have slipped back under the 0.71205 ema20, which sits on the 50% retracement of the 0.71663-0.70744 impulse — the resilience around the 0.7100 psych area reflects ~94% pricing for a Sep 29 RBA hike offset by a hawkish Fed and 5% US 10y yields. ATR(14) at roughly 13 pips is the tightest of the window, a compression regime that usually resolves with a range break rather than more drift.
Support: 0.7104, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71205, 0.71398, 0.71663
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above the 0.71398 week high would break the lower-high sequence and open the path to the 0.71663 lower high
Loss of the 0.71040 swing low and the 0.7100 psych level confirms a lower-low and re-exposes the 0.70744 range low
Failure to reclaim the 0.71205 ema20 keeps the bounce classified as corrective within the downtrend
RBA Bullock 03:10 GMT and Australian PMIs tonight, then Thursday's Employment Change, can reprice the RBA leg and invalidate the compression read
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the main USD-side event inside the next few bars