AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 26 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:07 UTC
Uptrend from the 0.6894 low, stalling under 0.7039 · RSI 51 · price 0.70174
Higher lows below a flat cap, coiling range.
The rally from the 0.6894 low has held a higher-low sequence. Price has spent a week coiling between the 0.6994 range low and a range top near 0.7039 that has capped five times, while the recent low at 0.7012 and the swing low at 0.7004 form rising lows beneath it in an ascending-triangle shape. ATR(14) has compressed to about 15 pips, roughly half the early-window regime, as the hawkish-RBA, softer-USD move that reclaimed 0.7000 pauses ahead of Wednesday's Australian CPI and the FOMC; price is just below EMA20 but above EMA50, with EMA20 still holding above EMA50.
Support: 0.7012, 0.70044, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.70393
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 0.7039 range top would resolve the coil higher.
A close below the 0.7012 recent low would break the rising-lows line, leaving the 0.7004 swing low as the next test.
Failure to hold the 0.6994 range low would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 38.2% rally fib near 0.6984.
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed, with trimmed mean vs 3.6% the key detail, could materially shift this read.
The FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the USD-side catalyst for a range break.
13:05 UTC
Uptrend from October low, stalling at highs · RSI 56 · price 0.70268
Higher lows since 0.6894; tight range capped at 0.7039.
Higher-low structure has held since the 0.6894 oct low, with last week's RBA-hike-driven rally reclaiming 0.7000 before stalling under the 0.7039 range top. That level has capped six tests since Oct 20, while the 0.6994 swing low and the rising support line from the October low have held below. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 15 pips as price coils between 0.6994 and 0.7039 ahead of Wednesday's AU CPI and FOMC.
Support: 0.6994, 0.6949, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.7100
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7039 range top breaks the cap and opens the path toward the 0.7100 round number
Loss of the 0.6994 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.6949
A break of the rising support line from the oct low would signal the October rally is losing traction
AU CPI (Wed 00:30 UTC) and the FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could resolve the current compression
09:04 UTC
Uptrend stalling under a flat cap · RSI 53 · price 0.70271
Higher low at 0.6994 after the 0.6894 low; flat highs at 0.7036-0.7039.
The V-shaped recovery from the 0.6894 mid-October low has printed a higher low at 0.6994. Since then, four separate pushes have stalled at a 0.7036-0.7039 range cap. A hawkish RBA and a USD near three-week lows carried the rebound, but contracting AU PMIs have kept it from extending, and price is now coiling between the 0.7004 swing low and the cap. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 16 pips from the 25-30 pip bars of the early-October selloff, while price holds above both EMAs with RSI flat near 53, a pattern consistent with a pending range resolution rather than trend extension.
Support: 0.7004, 0.6994, 0.6984
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.7100
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7039 range cap ends the consolidation and opens the 0.7100 round number
Failure to hold the 0.7004 swing low exposes the 0.6994 higher low; a break there puts the fib 38.2 at 0.6984 in play and breaks the higher-low sequence
AU Q3 CPI Wed 00:30 UTC (f/c 4.2% y/y), preceded by Bullock at 00:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC: December-hike guidance is the USD swing factor
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence on Tue as a pre-Fed tilt
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under resistance · RSI 53 · price 0.7028
Higher lows since Oct low, tight range below 0.7039.
Higher lows since the 0.6894 Oct low, with the rally capped at a 0.7039 range high that has turned price back four times in the past week. Pullbacks held the 0.6994 swing low and the 0.7004 higher low along a rising trendline, while EMA20 sits above EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to about 17 pips as RBA hike bets offset Thursday's PMI slump, a coil under resistance ahead of event risk.
Support: 0.7004, 0.6994, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.7100
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7039 range high breaks the consolidation and opens room toward the 0.7100 round number
Close below the 0.7004 higher low and rising trendline puts the 0.6994 swing low in play; losing that breaks the higher-low sequence
A break back toward the 0.6894 Oct low would bring the 50-61.8% fib zone of the Oct low to range high move (0.6967-0.6949) into focus
Bullock speech at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed (f/c 4.2% YoY) could resolve the ATR compression
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC: hawkish hold wording could pressure the range high read
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.6894; tight range 0.6994–0.7039.
The 0.6894 swing low paired with the early-month 0.6903 low to form a double bottom. The rally then cleared the 0.7013 neckline on rising RBA hike pricing and a softer USD, and higher highs and higher lows have followed. For the past week price has compressed between the 0.6994 higher low and the 0.7039 swing high, with demand repeatedly stepping in near the 0.7000 psych level. ATR(14) near 17 pips is well below the mid-month expansion, and price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50, with EMA20 above EMA50.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69936, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.70393, 0.7100
What it said to watch
AU CPI and the Bullock speech (Wed 00:15–00:30 UTC) and the FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 0.7039 swing high ends the consolidation and opens the 0.7074 area and the 0.7100 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6994 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 38.2% retracement of the rally near 0.6984
Loss of 0.7000 psych on a closing basis would mark the first lower-low since the double bottom completed