21:05 UTC
Rally correcting, momentum turned lower · RSI 36 · price 0.70249
Lower highs since the Sep 9 peak; rally trendline broken, price testing 0.7000.
The late-June to early-September advance ran from the 0.6865 june low to the 0.7237 sep high, briefly clearing the late-May high near 0.7200 before failing. It has since printed lower highs and three straight weekly losses. Wednesday's roughly 90-pip drop, driven by surging US yields and Fed hike repricing, broke the rally trendline and took price below the ema50 near 0.7100. Price now sits on 0.7000 psych, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the Jun-Sep rally, and RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6922, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7074, 0.7100, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- A daily close below 0.7000 psych and the 61.8% fib confirms the breakdown and exposes the july low at 0.6922
- Loss of 0.6922 opens the june low at 0.6865, the base of the rally
- A recovery back above the sep 16 low at 0.7074 and the ema50 near 0.7100 would neutralise the trendline break; the lower highs line sits just above
- RBA decision Tue Sep 29 04:30 UTC: a hold or a one-and-done framing versus hawkish guidance could materially shift this read
- US ADP and PCE on Wed Sep 30, with the 10y yield above 5%, are the dominant USD-side risk for the week