Higher lows off 0.7023 double low inside 0.7012–0.7040 day range.
NY faded from the 0.7040 day high, in line with repeated failures at the 100-DMA near 0.7035, and printed a 0.7023 double low around the rollover. Thin early-Asia trade has since built higher lows back into the 0.7030 prior high, which is the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop. Price sits just over EMA20/EMA50 ahead of Bullock and CPI.
Support: 0.70262, 0.70229, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70299, 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock at 00:15 GMT and September CPI/trimmed mean at 00:30 GMT, under an hour out; ATR of ~2.5 pips will understate the event range
M15 close above the 0.7030 prior high and 0.7033 asia high brings the 0.7040 day high / 100-DMA band back into play
Break of the 0.7026 higher low, then the 0.7023 double low, reopens the 0.7012 day low
23:33 UTC
Sideways, rally from day low has stalled · RSI 50 · price 0.70281
Higher lows from 0.7012 to the 0.7040 NY high, pullback holding 61.8%.
The rally from the 0.7012 day low hit its NY high at 0.7040, where the 100-DMA caps, then faded back to the 61.8% fib at 0.7023. The asian low there has held twice. Price is coiling in a 6-pip Asian range (0.7023–0.7029) on flat EMAs with RSI(14) at 50, with Bullock and AU CPI due.
Support: 0.70229, 0.7012, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70294, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT, under an hour away, could materially shift this read; trimmed mean vs 0.3% m/m is the core line
M15 close above the 0.7029 asian high reopens the 0.7040 ny high and 100-DMA cap
Failure to hold the 0.7023 asian low and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.7012 day low, then 0.7000 psych
23:03 UTC
Flat, drifting after NY fade · RSI 46 · price 0.70272
Lower highs off 0.7040 session high, base holding at 0.7023.
The London-to-NY rally from the 0.7012 London low peaked at the 0.7040 session high, then faded in lower highs. The pullback has held the fib 61.8 at 0.7023 twice. Early Asia is coiling in a tight 0.7023–0.7029 box under the recent cap ahead of Bullock and September CPI, with ATR compressed near 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.70229, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70294, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT (trimmed mean vs 0.3% m/m) could break the coil either way.
An M15 close above the 0.7029 recent cap reopens the 0.7040 session high.
Failure to hold the 0.7023 fib 61.8 exposes the 0.7012 London low.
FOMC decision later Wednesday could override any CPI-driven move.
22:47 UTC
Pullback from day high, now stabilising · RSI 49 · price 0.7028
Lower highs off 0.7040, flat base at 0.7023.
The NY session rejected the 0.7040 day high, which matches the 100-day SMA cap flagged in the digest, as firm USD into FOMC weighed. The fade held a 0.7023 swing low three times, at the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg. Early Asia is now pressing toward the 0.7032 lower high, with ATR near 2.3 pips in thin pre-event trade.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7012, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT, under 2h away, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.7032 lower high reopens the 0.7040 day high
Failure to hold the 0.7023 swing low exposes the 0.7012 pre-ldn low, then 0.7000 psych
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC remains the larger USD-side risk
22:32 UTC
Drifting lower after rejection at the day high · RSI 44 · price 0.7026
Lower highs off 0.7040, base forming at the 0.7023 ny low.
The London rally from the 0.7012 london low was rejected at the 0.7040 day high during NY hours, the cap the digest flags, and was followed by a sequence of lower highs. Price is now holding the 0.7023 ny low twice, at the 61.8% retrace of that move, in thin post-rollover trade capped by the 0.7029 lower high, with ATR near 2 pips ahead of Bullock and AU CPI.
Support: 0.70229, 0.7012, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70294, 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock speech at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT (trimmed mean f/c 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.7023 ny low breaks the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 0.7012 london low, then 0.7000 psych
Close above the 0.7029 lower high and the 0.7033 asian high reopens a test of the 0.7040 day high
Lower highs since day high, double low holding 0.7023.
AUDUSD was rejected at the 0.7040 day high in early NY as a firm USD into the Fed capped the move. Price has since printed a run of lower highs into a thin early-Asia tape, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42. The 0.7023 double low has held twice, at the 61.8% retrace of the London-NY leg.
Support: 0.70229, 0.7012, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70294, 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT, about 2h out, could reset this range. Trimmed mean vs 0.3% m/m is the key read.
An M15 close below the 0.7023 double low exposes the 0.7012 london low, then 0.7000 psych.
A close above the 0.7029 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the pullback sequence. The 0.7033 asian high and 0.7040 day high sit above.
The FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
22:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend off day high, momentum flat · RSI 41 · price 0.70246
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7040 high, basing near 0.7023.
London lifted AUDUSD from the 0.7012 london low through the 0.7033 asian high. The rally met rejection at the 0.7040 day high in early NY, at the 100-day SMA cap flagged in the macro read, as the USD held two-week highs. Since then a lower high/lower low sequence has carried price back to the 0.7023 session low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the London rally, with ATR compressed near 2.4 pips in the quiet post-NY tape.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7029, 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock speech 00:15 GMT and AU CPI 00:30 GMT, about 2.5h out, could materially shift this read; trimmed mean vs 0.3% m/m is the key print
M15 close below the 0.7023 session low and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.7012 london low
Recovery above the 0.7029 lower high and the 0.7033 asian high breaks the lower-high chain
Day high at 0.7040 remains the cap that a hot CPI would need to clear
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk after CPI
21:48 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY high · RSI 44 · price 0.70255
Lower highs and lows off 0.7040, holding 61.8% retrace.
NY session cleared the 0.7033 asian high and stalled at a 0.7040 session high as a firmer USD capped the move. A lower-high sequence has since pulled price back to the 0.7023 late-ny low, near 61.8% of the Asia-NY fib from the 0.7012 asian low. The new Asia session is quiet ahead of Bullock and AU CPI, with ATR(14) at just 2.4 pips.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7020, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7029, 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7029 swing high breaks the lower-high line and negates the pullback read.
Failure to hold the 0.7023 late-ny low exposes the 0.7020 round number, then the 0.7012 asian low.
Bullock at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT (trimmed mean f/c 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read. The 0.7033 asian high and 0.7040 session high are the next levels above.
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk after CPI.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7040 day high, compressing near 0.7023-0.7029.
London lifted AUDUSD from the 0.7012 london low through the 0.7009-0.7033 Asian range. NY extended to a 0.7040 day high, where it was rejected at the 100-day SMA cap flagged in the digest, then faded through late NY in lower highs to a 0.7023 ny low, roughly the 61.8% retracement of the London-NY leg. Early Asia trades at 0.7027, just under EMA20 and pressing the descending line from the high, with RSI(14) flat at 46.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7012, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7029, 0.7040
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7029 lower high breaks the descending line and reopens the 0.7040 day high
Failure to hold the 0.7023 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7012 london low
Bullock at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT, under 3h away, can reset this range; 0.7040 day high and 0.7000 psych bracket the likely reaction
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk to the structure
21:17 UTC
Intraday pullback from session high · RSI 34 · price 0.70238
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7040.
London broke the Asian range high, and early NY ran to a 0.7040 session high. Price was rejected there, under the 100-day SMA cap the digest flags. Since then the pair has stepped down in lower highs, lost the 0.7027 broken low and is testing the 0.7023 swing low, which sits at the 61.8% of the 0.7012–0.7040 London leg, with RSI(14) at 34.
Support: 0.70229, 0.7020, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7032, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7020 psych level exposes the 0.7012 asian low
Bullock speech at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY high; back inside the Asian range.
NY broke the 0.7033 Asian high, then was rejected at the 0.7040 session high, the 100-day SMA cap flagged in the digest, as the USD firmed into FOMC. Price has since printed lower highs under a descending trendline and is testing the 61.8% fib of the 0.7012–0.7040 London-NY leg near 0.7023, with RSI(14) at 36 into the end of NY hours.
Support: 0.70227, 0.7012, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70294, 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT (~3.5h, early Asia session) could materially shift this read; trimmed mean vs 0.3% m/m is the swing factor
M15 close below the 0.7023 61.8% fib exposes the london low at 0.7012, then the 0.7000 psych pivot
Close above the 0.7029 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the asian high at 0.7033 and the 0.7040 session high then come back into view
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk after the CPI print
20:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the NY high · RSI 33 · price 0.70236
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7040 rejection, now at the 61.8% retracement.
Rejection at the 0.7040 session high during NY hours turned into a lower-high, lower-low sequence into the close, with a firm USD bid ahead of FOMC. Price is now probing the 0.7023 session low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the London-to-NY advance. RSI(14) is near 33 and ATR is a tight 2.3 pips.
Support: 0.70229, 0.70185, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70294, 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock testimony at 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean vs ~3.6%) land in the coming Asia session and could materially shift this read.
An M15 close above the 0.7029 lower high and the descending trendline negates the lower-high sequence. The 0.7036 London high and 0.7040 session high would then come back into view.
Failure to hold the 0.7023 session low and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.7019 swing low and then the 0.7012 London low.
20:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs from NY peak · RSI 38 · price 0.70249
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7040 session high, back inside the Asian range.
London cleared the 0.7033 asian high and the NY session extended to a 0.7040 session high, where supply capped the move at the 100-day SMA area flagged in the digest. Price has since slipped back inside the Asian range on a lower-high sequence and now sits at the 0.7025 ny low, near the 50% fib of the London move, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR down to about 2 pips ahead of AUD CPI.
Support: 0.70247, 0.7020, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70294, 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7025 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7020 round number and the 0.7012 london low
Recovery above the 0.7029 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the session high
Reclaim of the 0.7033 asian high puts the 0.7040 session high back in play
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and Australian Q3 CPI at 00:30 UTC (03:15/03:30 broker) could materially shift this read; trimmed mean vs ~3.6% y/y is the key figure
20:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend correcting, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 36 · price 0.70251
Asian range broken higher; NY rejection at 0.7040, pullback to 50% fib.
London cleared the 0.7009–0.7033 Asian range, and NY printed a 0.7040 session high at 15:00 UTC. Price was then rejected just above the 0.7035 area the digest flags as the 100-day SMA cap. Lower highs since have pulled price to 0.7025, the session low and roughly the 50% fib of the 0.7012–0.7040 leg, with RSI(14) near 36 in the quiet late-NY hours before Australian CPI.
Support: 0.7025, 0.70227, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70293, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7025 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.7023 and then the 0.7012 swing low
Recovery above the 38.2% fib at 0.7029 breaks the lower-highs sequence from the 0.7040 session high
Bullock testimony at 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean f/c ~3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
London ran from its 0.7012 london low through the 0.7033 Asian high, and NY tagged a 0.7040 session high into the 100-day SMA cap before rejecting. Lower highs since then, at 0.7032 and 0.7029, have compressed price into a 0.7026–0.7029 late-NY consolidation. That range sits on the 50% fib of the London leg, with the ny swing low at 0.7026 holding into Bullock and CPI.
Support: 0.70258, 0.7020, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock testimony 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean vs ~3.6%) could materially shift this read within the Asia session
M15 close below the 0.7026 ny swing low breaks the 50% fib and exposes the 0.7020 round number, then the london low at 0.7012
M15 close above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.7040 session high
Repeat rejection at 0.7040 would confirm the 100-day SMA cap is holding
London broke the 0.7033 Asian range high and NY extended it to a 0.7040 session high, right at the 100-day SMA cap, before rejecting as firm US data held the dollar bid. After London close, price is back inside the Asian range and basing above the 0.7026 NY low, near the 38.2% retracement of the 0.7012–0.7040 leg. RSI(14) sits around 41 and EMA20/50 are just overhead.
Support: 0.70258, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7032 lower high reopens the 0.7040 session high
Failure to hold the 0.7026 NY low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.7023, then the 0.7012 London low
Bullock testimony at 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean ~3.6% y/y f/c) could materially shift this read in the Asia session
London and NY lifted AUDUSD through the Asian high at 0.7033 to a 0.7040 session high, where supply capped the move. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 0.7032 and held the 0.7026 NY low near the 50% retracement of the London rally. Late NY is compressing just below EMA20 into Bullock and Australian CPI.
Support: 0.70258, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.7026 NY low opens the 61.8% retracement and the 0.7012 London low
Close above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.7040 session high back in play
Bullock testimony 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean ~3.6% y/y f/c) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 0.7040 since 15:00 UTC; holding above NY low near 50% fib.
London broke above the 0.7012–0.7033 Asian range and NY extended to a 0.7040 session high, but supply capped it there and price has since printed lower highs back to 0.7028, under the 0.7032 lower high. The NY low at 0.70258 sits on the 50% retrace of the London low-to-session high leg, and ranges have compressed to under 3 pips per bar ahead of AU CPI.
Support: 0.70258, 0.7020, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.70359, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock testimony 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean vs ~3.6%) could materially shift this read
Close below the 0.70258 NY low exposes the 0.7020 psych level and 61.8% fib
Recovery above the 0.7032 lower high negates the pullback structure and reopens the London high at 0.7036
Session high at 0.7040 remains the intraday cap; a break would mark a fresh high for the window
Loss of 0.7020 brings the London low at 0.7012 back into play
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7040 NY high, back below the Asian high.
London cleared the 0.7033 Asian high and NY extended to a 0.7040 session high before a rejection. Price has since printed lower highs back below the Asian high and sits on the 0.7026 NY low, near the 50% of the London leg, as a firm USD into FOMC and pre-CPI caution keep ranges tight (ATR ~2.6 pips).
Support: 0.70258, 0.70225, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7026 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.7022 london low (61.8% of the London leg)
Recovery above the 0.7033 asian high and the falling trendline from 0.7040 negates the fade from the session high
Bullock testimony at 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.7012 asian low is the next reference on a soft core print
Lower highs off 0.7040 session high, testing 50% retrace.
London cleared the 0.7033 Asian high and NY stretched to a 0.7040 session high at the 100-day SMA cap before rejecting, with firm US durables keeping USD supported. Late NY has printed a lower high at 0.7032 and is sitting on the 50% retrace of the 0.7012–0.7040 leg. RSI(14) is near 34 and ATR is about 2.5 pips ahead of Aussie CPI.
Support: 0.7026, 0.7023, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.7040 session high
Failure to hold the 0.7026 50% retrace exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.7023, then the 0.7012 london low
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean f/c ~3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
LH/LL sequence since the 0.7040 NY high, sitting on fib 50%.
London lifted AUDUSD out of the 0.7009–0.7033 Asian range from the 0.7012 London low, and NY stretched to a 0.7040 session high after the 14:00 UTC US data. That high met rejection at the 100-day SMA cap flagged in the digest. Late NY has since printed a chain of lower highs back to the 0.7026 swing low, at the fib 50% of the 0.7012–0.7040 leg, with RSI(14) near 33 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.7026, 0.7020, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the late-NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7026 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7020 round number (fib 61.8% ~0.7023)
Loss of 0.7020 exposes the 0.7012 London low and unwinds the London-NY leg
Bullock testimony 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI 00:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; session high at 0.7040 is the upside reference
18:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 36 · price 0.70282
London-NY higher-low chain, now testing the 0.7026 NY low.
London cleared the 0.7033 Asian high and NY extended to a 0.7040 session high, where supply capped price at the 100-day SMA zone flagged in the AUD digest. Since then price has faded under a descending pullback line to the 0.7026 NY low, near the 50% fib of the 0.7012–0.7040 leg, with RSI(14) near 36 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70258, 0.70227, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.7026 NY low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.7023, then the 0.7012 London low
A reclaim of the 0.7033 Asian high and the pullback line reopens the 0.7040 session high
Bullock testimony at 00:15 UTC and Q3 CPI at 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean vs ~3.6%) land in the Asia session and could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, now pulling back · RSI 40 · price 0.70269
Lower highs and lows since the 0.7040 session high.
The London-NY leg from the 0.7012 london low topped at the 0.7040 session high during NY hours, a rejection right at the 100-DMA cap. Since then the pair has printed lower highs into a retest of the 0.7027 swing low, near the 50% retrace of that leg, with firm USD after the Durable Goods beat and caution ahead of AU CPI keeping bounces capped; the 0.7000 psych level sits below.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7012, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.7027 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.7012 london low, then 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of the 0.7032 lower high and the falling trendline negates the pullback read; 0.7040 session high is the cap above
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC Wed (~6h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; rejected at session high, pulled back to 38.2% fib.
London cleared the 0.7033 Asian high and NY extended to a 0.7040 session high, where the 100-dma cap rejected it against a firm USD (DXY above 102.00). Late NY has faded back to the 38.2% fib near 0.7029 with higher lows still in place, and price is sitting just under the Asian high with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.70293, 0.70271, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7040 100-dma cap and session high breaks the rejection read
Failure to hold the 0.7027 swing low breaks the higher lows chain and opens the 0.7012 Asian low
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed (trimmed mean vs 3.6%) could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now pulling back · RSI 44 · price 0.70304
Lower highs off 0.7040 session high, back under asian high.
AUD broke the 0.7033 asian high in London, firm on RBA's Hunter, and tagged a 0.7040 session high after the 14:00 UTC US data, a level that has capped the pair into CPI. Since then lower highs have pulled price back under the asian high late in the NY session. It is holding the 0.7029 pullback low, with the 0.7027 swing low sitting at the 38.2% retrace of the day rally from 0.7009.
Support: 0.70286, 0.70271
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.7033 asian high reopens the 0.7040 session high
Failure to hold the 0.7027 swing low and the 38.2% day rally fib confirms a lower-low sequence
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean vs 3.6%) could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 48 · price 0.70298
Higher lows through the day; lower highs since the 0.7040 NY peak.
Price built higher lows from the Asian low at 0.7009 and pushed to a 0.7040 NY high, but was rejected at the 100-DMA cap that the digest flags, as firm US data kept USD bid. A descending line of lower highs has since walked price back to the fib 38.2 near 0.7029 after London close, sitting just above EMA50 with RSI neutral at 48.
Support: 0.70293, 0.70271, 0.70156
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.7027 ny low opens the 50% retrace at 0.7026 and the 0.7016 london low
Close above the descending line and the 0.7037 london high puts the 0.7040 ny high back in play
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
ATR near 3 pips; late NY range compression likely persists into the event risk
16:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 46 · price 0.70299
Higher lows from the Asian low; lower highs since the NY session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.7033 and NY extended to a 0.7040 session high, but the 100-DMA cap held and price has printed lower highs since, slipping to 0.7030, the 38.2% retracement of the London move. RSI(14) is near 46 with price under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, as the firm US data run keeps USD bid ahead of tomorrow's AU CPI and FOMC.
Support: 0.70271, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.7027 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.7012 london low, then the 0.7009 asian low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 0.7037 london high reopens a test of the 0.7040 session high
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 0.7009 Asian low, first pullback off session high.
London cleared the 0.7033 Asian range high and NY extended the HH/HL chain to a 0.7040 session high. That high sits at the 0.7035-0.7040 ceiling that has capped AUD this week, and price was rejected there as the USD bid held after firm US data. After London close, price sits on the 0.7031 pullback low, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 52, and the 0.7027 swing low and the 38.2% of the London-NY leg (~0.7029) sit below.
Support: 0.70312, 0.70271, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7037 prior high reopens the 0.7040 session high; acceptance above it breaks the cap
Loss of the 0.7027 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 50% of the London-NY leg (0.7026), then the 0.7012 double low
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean vs 3.6%) could materially shift this read in the Asia session
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the second event risk for the 0.7040 cap
HH/HL chain since London low; pullback to Asian-high retest.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.7033 and NY extended to a 0.7040 session high, but sellers capped the 100-DMA zone again as USD stayed firm on strong durables and confidence data. Price has slipped back to retest 0.7033 with RSI(14) near 48. The swing low at 0.7027 and the rising trendline from the London low still define the higher-low chain.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.7012 London low
M15 close back above the 0.7040 session high would mark a clean break of the 100-DMA cap
Bullock at 00:15 UTC, AU CPI at 00:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.7009 Asia low; first pullback from the session high.
London broke the Asian high at 0.7033 and NY extended the rally to a 0.7040 session high after the post-14:00 UTC US data dip held a 0.7027 swing low. Price has since slipped back toward the Asian high as broad USD firmness caps the pair, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.7033, 0.70271
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7033 asian high puts the breakout in doubt and exposes the 0.7027 swing low
Loss of the 0.7027 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 0.7040 session high and 0.7037 prior high reopens upside after the rejection
RBA Bullock 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read in Asia
Higher-high/higher-low chain since London; Asian range high broken.
The London rally lifted AUDUSD off the 0.7012 Asian low. It cleared the 0.7033 Asian high, and NY extended the higher-high chain to a 0.7040 session high despite firm US data. Supply is capping right at the 0.7035-0.7040 ceiling the digest flags ahead of AU CPI, and price is easing back toward the Asian high with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.7033, 0.70271, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.7040 session high, and above the 0.70369 prior high first, extends the higher-high chain
Break of the 0.70271 swing low and rising support ends the London higher-low sequence
Holding the 0.7033 Asian high on this pullback keeps the breakout intact
RBA's Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read; trimmed mean vs 3.6% is the key figure
Failure back below the 0.7012 Asian low would erase the session's breakout
Higher-low chain 0.7012 → 0.7027, fresh session high 0.7040.
NY session cleared the Asian high (0.7033) and London's 0.7037 peak to print a session high at 0.7040. Supply is capping there, with a mild rejection off the high. The higher-low chain from the 0.7012 London low and the 0.7027 higher low is intact, and RSI(14) at ~57 is neutral as AUD stays firm on hawkish RBA commentary ahead of CPI.
Support: 0.7033, 0.7027, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7050
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7040 session high opens the 0.7050 round number
Slip back below the 0.7033 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.7027 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.7012 London low
RBA Bullock 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC Wed (trimmed mean f/c ~3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
15:18 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 66 · price 0.70378
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.7012 pre-London low.
AUD firmed through London and into NY after RBA Asst Gov Hunter's 'not quite yet' comments. The pair built higher lows at 0.7012, 0.7023 and the 0.7027 NY low along a trendline support, and printed a session high at 0.7040, where supply is capping for now. RSI(14) sits at 66, firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.70293, 0.70271, 0.70226
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7050
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7040 session high extends the higher-high chain and opens the 0.7050 round number
A pullback through the fib 38.2 near 0.7029 shifts focus to the 0.7027 NY low
A break of the 0.7027 NY low and trendline support ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.7023 swing low (61.8% fib)
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean vs 3.6%) in the Asia session could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 68 · price 0.70396
Higher highs since London open, swing lows held near 0.7027.
London broke the Asian high at 0.7033 off the 0.7012 open low. NY retested it at the 0.7027 swing low and extended through the 0.7037 prior high to a 0.7040 session high, where AUD has repeatedly stalled per the digest. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched, and moves are running about 3.7 pips per bar.
Support: 0.70369, 0.7033, 0.70271
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Hold above the 0.7037 prior high keeps the breakout intact; slipping back under the 0.7033 Asian high marks it a false break
Loss of the 0.7027 swing low and the London trendline breaks the higher-high sequence
Acceptance above the 0.7040 session high opens the 0.7050 round number
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read; FOMC follows later Wed
HH/HL chain from London open; Asian high broken, price pressing session high.
London lifted AUD/USD off the 0.7012 London low through the 0.7033 Asian high. An early NY dip held the 0.7027 NY swing low and price set a fresh session high at 0.7039, inside the 0.7035–0.7040 cap that turned AUD back on Monday. RSI(14) at 63 is firm but not stretched, and ATR is under 4 pips despite the firm USD backdrop.
Support: 0.7033, 0.7027, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70386, 0.7050
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.7033 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
A close below the 0.7027 NY swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.7012 London low
Acceptance above the 0.7039 session high opens the 0.7050 round number
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read; FOMC follows Wed 18:00 UTC
14:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London open · RSI 62 · price 0.70361
Higher-low chain pressing session high under the 100-DMA cap.
London built a higher-low sequence off the 0.7012 London low, cleared the Asian high at 0.7033 and set a 0.7037 session high. The early NY dip held the 38.2% of the London leg at 0.7027, and price is back retesting the session high just under the 100-DMA cap near 0.7040 flagged in the AUD digest. RSI(14) near 62, not stretched.
Support: 0.7033, 0.70271, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7040 (100-DMA) breaks the cap that has held price below it
Loss of the 0.7027 NY low breaks the London higher-low trend and the higher-low chain
Slip back below the Asian high at 0.7033 turns the session high into a rejection
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below the session high · RSI 54 · price 0.70328
Higher lows since London open; tight box 0.7027–0.7037 in the London-NY transition.
London cleared the 0.7033 Asian range high and set a 0.7037 session high just before the 12:30 UTC US data, with the advance stalling under the 0.7040 round number as firm USD on hawkish-Fed pricing capped AUD. The pullback held the 0.7027 swing low near the 38.2% fib, rising support from the London low is intact, and price is back on 0.7033 with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.70271, 0.70225, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 session high, then the 0.7040 round number, breaks the consolidation lid
Failure to hold the 0.7027 swing low and rising support exposes the 0.7022 higher low, then the 0.7012 london low
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and Australia CPI 00:30 UTC Wed, then FOMC 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 46 · price 0.70286
Higher lows from 0.7012, twin tops at 0.7036-37, neckline under test.
London cleared the 0.7033 Asian high and set a session high at 0.7037. Twin tops at 0.7036-37 have capped the move, and price is now testing the 0.7027 neckline at the 38.2% retracement of the London leg into the NY open. Firm US data and the dollar at two-week highs are weighing on the pair ahead of Wednesday's AU CPI.
Support: 0.7027, 0.70226, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70369
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.7023 swing low and the 50% retracement of the London leg
Failure at the 0.7023 swing low puts the 0.7012 London low back in play
Reclaim of the 0.7033 Asian high reopens a retest of the 0.7037 session high
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC are the immediate NY catalyst; Bullock and AU CPI from 00:15 UTC Wed, then FOMC Wed, could reset the intraday range
London pushed through the 0.7033 Asian high to a 0.7037 session high but could not extend. Early NY has slipped back below that level, and price is sitting on the EMA20 near 0.7029 with RSI(14) neutral at 55. Higher lows from 0.7012 remain intact, with the London low at 0.7028 as the first floor, while firm US durables and USD at two-week highs cap the move short of the 0.7040 round number.
Support: 0.70281, 0.70259, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 London low confirms the false break of the Asian high and exposes the ema50 near 0.7026 and the 50% fib of the 0.7012–0.7037 leg
Reclaim of the 0.7033 Asian high and a break of the 0.7037 session high opens the 0.7040 round number
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could jolt the session range
Loss of the 0.7012 higher low breaks the intraday HL chain; Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed are likely to reset this structure
HH/HL chain intact; stalling just under Asian high after session high.
The London leg ran from the 0.7012 london low to a 0.7037 session high, clearing the 0.7033 Asian high. The move then met rejection under the 0.7040 month high, near the 100-day SMA, as USD firmed on the Durable Goods headline beat at the NY open. Price has slipped back just below the Asian high, with higher lows at 0.7030 and the 0.7028 swing low still intact. RSI(14) is cooling to ~58 and ATR is ~4 pips.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7028, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7037, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.7012 london low
Close above the 0.7037 session high and 0.7040 month high would end the rejection read at the 100-day SMA
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC is the next USD test inside the first hours of NY
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and AU Q3 CPI 00:30 UTC Wed could materially reset this range
13:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 56 · price 0.70314
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.7012 London low; Asian range high broken.
London cleared the 0.7033 Asian range high and set a session high at 0.70369 before stalling. The pullback is holding only about 23.6% of the 0.7012–0.7037 London leg, near 0.7031, with the 0.7028 higher low intact into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) is neutral near 56, and AUD is holding firm on RBA-hike pricing despite broad USD strength.
Support: 0.7028, 0.70225, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.7028 higher low breaks the London HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.70225 swing low (near the 50% of the London leg).
Acceptance above the 0.70369 session high brings the 0.7040 prior high into play; another stall there would mark a lower high.
Failure to hold the 0.7012 london low returns price to the Asian range.
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could jolt USD in the first hour of NY; Bullock (00:15 UTC) and AU CPI (00:30 UTC Wed) are the larger risks to this read.
Higher lows since London open, Asian high broken, capped under 0.7035/40.
London held the 0.7012 London low and broke the Asian range high at 0.7033, with RBA's Hunter 'not quite yet' remark keeping AUD firm. The pair printed a session high at 0.7037 but stalled again beneath the 0.7035/40 cap zone that rejected Monday's move. Higher lows at 0.7023 (swing low) and 0.7028 (higher low) still track the rising trendline into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.70281, 0.70226, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7040 cap zone ends the repeated-rejection read
Break of the 0.7028 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 0.7023 swing low in play
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could jolt the session range
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI 00:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read; FOMC follows later Wed
HH/HL chain from London low; Asian range broken higher.
London broke the 0.7033 Asian high and the first hour of NY stretched to a 0.7037 session high, just short of the 100-DMA zone near 0.7040 that has repeatedly capped AUD. Price is easing back onto the 0.7033 breakout level and the rising trendline after the Durable Goods release. The HH/HL chain from the 0.7012 London low is intact, and the 0.7028 higher low sits near the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 0.70281, 0.70226, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 higher low breaks the trendline and the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.7023 swing low exposes the 0.7012 London low
Acceptance above the 0.7037 session high brings the 100-dma at 0.7040 into play
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, then Bullock and AU CPI at 00:15/00:30 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from the London low, new session high at 0.7037.
Higher lows from the 0.7012 London low through 0.7023 and the 0.7028 swing low carried price to a new session high at 0.7037 around the NY open. That puts it in the 0.7035/40 zone that capped Monday, with the 0.7040 psych level just above. RSI(14) near 63 is firm but not stretched, and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.70281, 0.70226, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 GMT and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT could shift this read during NY hours
A close above the 0.7040 psych level clears the 0.7035/40 cap and the session high
Failure to hold the 0.7028 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.7023 higher low
Bullock speech and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed are the next major risk for this structure
Higher lows from the London-open low; Asian range high broken and retested.
London cleared the 0.7033 Asian range high and set a session high at 0.7036. The pullback held a retest low at 0.7028, and price is back at the highs, extending a higher-low chain from the 0.7012 London low through the 0.7023 swing low. Overhead, the 0.7040 prior high is where AUD stalled on Monday, and the digest flags it as the cap ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7023, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.7040
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 GMT, due within the next bar, could materially shift this read
A close above the 0.7036 session high and the 0.7040 prior high would extend the London breakout
A close back below the 0.7028 retest low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.7023 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline from the London low
AU CPI Wed 00:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 GMT are the larger event risk
12:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 61 · price 0.7030
Higher lows from 0.7012; Asian high broken, now being retested.
Buyers defended the 0.7012 triple low at London open. The rally since has printed a chain of higher lows along a rising trendline and pushed through the 0.7033 Asian high to a 0.7036 session high. Price is now rotating between the 0.7028 retest low and the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) around 4 pips, just under the 0.7040 Monday high where AUD stalled yesterday.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7022, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7036, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 retest low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.7022 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
A close above the 0.7036 session high opens the 0.7040 Monday high, the level that capped AUD on Monday
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC in the first hours of NY could test the breakout
Bullock speech at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC could reset the intraday structure
11:47 UTC
Intraday higher lows, stalling at range top · RSI 58 · price 0.70284
HL chain from 0.7012 inside 0.7009–0.7036 range.
The London leg up from 0.7012 broke the Asian high at 0.7033 and printed a 0.7036 session high. It was rejected just under the 100-day SMA zone flagged in the digest and slipped back inside the range to 0.7028. The higher-low trendline and the 0.7023 swing low remain intact, with RSI(14) cooled to about 58.
Support: 0.70226, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7023 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.7012 London low
M15 close above the 0.7036 session high negates the false break and brings the 0.7040 100-day SMA into play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed are the main risk to the 0.7009 Asian low to 0.7036 range
Higher-low chain from 0.7012; London rejected above Asian high.
London extended the higher-low chain from the 0.7012 london low and poked through the 0.7033 asian high to a 0.70359 session high, but was rejected just short of the 100-dma cap near 0.7040. Price has slipped back under the Asian high and is holding above the 0.70289 swing low into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 64 and a firm USD capping the move.
Support: 0.70289, 0.70226, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70359, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70359 session high reopens a test of the 100-dma zone near 0.7040
Failure to hold the 0.70289 swing low puts the rising trendline and the 0.70226 higher low in play
Loss of the 0.7012 london low breaks the intraday higher-low structure
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and Australia CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed sit just beyond this window
11:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under cap · RSI 62 · price 0.7030
London HH/HL chain off 0.7012, rejected at 0.7036 session high.
London built a higher-high, higher-low chain off the 0.7012 London low and briefly cleared the 0.7033 Asian high. Rejection at the 0.7036 session high, just under the 100-DMA cap near 0.7040, has pulled price back to 0.7030. The rising trendline and the 0.7023 swing low, near the 38.2% of the London leg, still hold the sequence.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7036, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7036 session high and the 0.7040 100-DMA breaks the cap that has rejected AUD rallies
Back below the 0.7033 Asian high and through the 0.7023 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the London HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.7023 swing low opens the 0.7012 London low and the 61.8% of the London leg near 0.7021 on the way
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC during NY hours, could shift this read given the firm USD tone
11:03 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 63 · price 0.70326
HH/HL chain through London, Asian high retest.
London built a higher-high/higher-low chain off the 0.7012 day low and cleared the 0.7033 Asian high. The move printed a session high at 0.7036, then a rejection pulled price back to that Asian high. RSI(14) is near 63, so not stretched, and supply is still capping below the 0.7040 Monday high where the AUD rally has stalled against a firm USD.
Support: 0.7033, 0.70226, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7036 session high puts the 0.7040 Monday high in play
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.7023 swing low (near the 50% fib of the London leg) breaks the HL chain
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 71 · price 0.70344
Asian high broken mid-London, HH/HL chain intact.
London built higher lows off the 0.7012 London low and the 0.7023 swing low, then broke the 0.7033 Asian high to a fresh 24h high at 0.7034, with RSI(14) near 71. Price is pressing the 0.7040 prior high, the one-month high where USD firmness has repeatedly capped AUD ahead of Wednesday's Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.7033, 0.70226, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7050
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7033 asian high turns the break into a false break
Clean break of the 0.7040 prior high opens the 0.7050 psych level
Loss of the 0.7023 swing low breaks the rising lows chain
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC in the NY session could shift this read
AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed, preceded by Bullock at 00:15 UTC, is the larger risk to this structure
10:32 UTC
Range-bound, short-term higher lows since 07:00 UTC · RSI 56 · price 0.7026
London coiling between 0.7022 and 0.7028 inside the 0.7009–0.7033 Asian range.
London has stayed inside the Asian range, lifting off the 0.7012 floor (tested four times since Monday's NY open). The bounce has stalled at the 0.7028 London high and a descending line from the Asian high, with pullbacks holding the 38.2% fib at 0.7022. A firm USD is keeping AUD capped below 0.7033 into Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 0.7022, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7033
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7033 asian high breaks both the Asian range and the descending line
Loss of the 0.7022 fib 38.2 ends London's higher-low sequence and reopens the 0.7012 floor
A break of the 0.7009 asian low would set a fresh low for the window
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift the USD around the NY open
Bullock (00:15 UTC) and Australian CPI (00:30 UTC Wed) are the next major AUD catalysts
Range 0.7009–0.7033; London lower high under Asia high.
AUDUSD rejected the Asia high at 0.7033, then found demand again at the 0.7012 London low, a double bottom with yesterday's 13:45 UTC low that sits just above the 0.7009 range low. The London rebound stalled at 0.70281, a lower high, and price is easing to 0.7023 near the 38.2% retrace with RSI neutral as a firm USD caps upside into Wednesday's CPI and FOMC.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70281, 0.7033
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.70281 London high reopens the 0.7033 Asia high
Failure to hold the 0.7012 London low exposes the 0.7009 range low and breaks the double bottom read
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) during NY hours could break the session range
Bullock speech and Australia CPI at 00:15/00:30 UTC Wednesday are the main volatility risk for this range
Higher lows since London open, pressing session high below Asian high.
London bounced from the 0.7012 London low, the third hold of that floor in 24h after a brief sweep to the 0.7009 Asian low, and the London leg has built higher lows up to 0.7024. Price is coiling just under the 0.7028 session high, still inside the 0.7009–0.7033 Asian range, with the Asian high and the 100d SMA (0.7035–0.7040) capping as AUD holds firm into Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 0.7024, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7033 Asian high breaks the range read and brings the 0.7035–0.7040 100d SMA into play
Loss of the 0.7024 higher low and the rising London trendline returns price to range rotation toward the 0.7012 London low
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift the read during NY hours
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wednesday could materially reset this range
09:47 UTC
Intraday range, London leg higher · RSI 55 · price 0.70251
Higher lows inside Asian range.
London defended the 0.7012 london low at the open and built higher lows up to a 0.7028 london high. Price remains inside the 0.7009–0.7033 Asian range, and a firm USD is keeping AUD below yesterday's 0.7038 prior high. RSI(14) neutral near 55, ATR(14) about 4 pips mid-London.
Support: 0.70225, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70281, 0.7033, 0.70378
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7033 asian high breaks the overnight range and puts the 0.7038 prior high in play
A close below the 0.7022 pullback low breaks the London higher-low chain and exposes the 0.7012 london low
Loss of the 0.7009 asian low would turn the range into a lower-low sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone into the NY session
Bullock speech at 00:15 UTC and Australia Q3 CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed could materially reset this read
Lower high at 0.7028 under the 0.7033 Asian high; 0.7012 floor held three times.
The Asian session ran to 0.7033 and then fully unwound into the 0.7012 triple low before London. Early London built higher lows and lifted to 0.7028, where it was rejected, leaving a lower high under the Asian high. Price is back mid-range near 0.7023 with RSI flat around 52, as a firm USD and AUD's cap near 0.7035 into Wednesday's CPI keep moves contained.
Support: 0.70181, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70281, 0.7033
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7033 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 0.7018 puts the 0.7012 triple low back in play
A break of 0.7012 and the 0.7009 asian low turns the range into a lower-low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could jolt the USD during NY hours
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and Aus Q3 CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed are the larger event risk for the range
09:17 UTC
Intraday range, bounce off London low · RSI 59 · price 0.70257
Inside 0.7009–0.7033 Asian range, higher low at 0.7012.
The London open drop stalled at 0.7012, just above the 0.7009 Asian low. The rebound has cleared the 0.7022 prior cap and is testing the 61.8% fib of the Asian high to London low move near 0.7025, with the 0.7027 prior high (Monday NY peak) directly overhead. Price is still inside the Asian range with ATR(14) under 4 pips, reflecting compressed conditions as AUD holds near 0.7020 ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 0.70224, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7033 Asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.7039 Monday high
Rejection at the 0.7027 prior high and loss of the 0.7022 prior cap puts the 0.7012 London low and 0.7009 Asian low back in play
A break below the 0.7009 Asian low ends the higher-low read
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift USD during NY hours
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and Australia Q3 CPI 00:30 UTC Wed are the next major AUD risk
09:04 UTC
Range-bound, short-term upswing in London · RSI 61 · price 0.70257
Higher lows off the 0.7012 floor, still inside the 0.7009–0.7033 Asian range.
Demand held the 0.7012 range floor for a fourth time ahead of London open. Early London has since put in higher lows along a rising trendline, retracing ~65% of the Asian drop to a 0.7026 London high. Price sits above the ema20 near 0.7020, RSI(14) is around 61 and ATR(14) about 4 pips, with firm USD into FOMC keeping the Asian high and the Monday high near the 100-day SMA as overhead supply.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70156, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70261, 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7033 Asian high exposes the 0.7039 Monday high near the 100-day SMA
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.7016 higher low breaks the rising trendline and returns focus to the 0.7012 range floor
A break below the 0.7009 Asian low invalidates the range read
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed is the larger catalyst for a range break
08:48 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 0.70196
Lower highs under 0.7033, repeated floor at 0.7012.
The Asian rally from 0.7009 to the 0.7033 Asian high was almost fully unwound. Early European trade wicked to the 0.7012 Asian low, which has now held four times, and price is compressed beneath a 0.7023 lower high. RSI(14) sits at 48 and price is pinned at EMA20/EMA50, with broad USD firmness into FOMC capping the bounce.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7023, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7023 lower high reopens the 0.7033 Asian high, with the 0.7039 prior high that capped Monday's run above it
Failure to hold the 0.7012 Asian low exposes the 0.7009 swing low and 0.7000 psych
US durable goods (12:30 UTC) and Conference Board confidence (14:00 UTC) could break the range during NY hours
Intraday range 0.7009–0.7033, lower high under Monday's 0.7039.
Asia ran from the 0.7009 asian low to 0.7033 before rejection. Price retraced into the 50–61.8% zone of that move. London open dipped to the 0.7012 swing low and held, leaving price near 0.7020 under the 0.7023 london high, flat on both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 46. Broad USD firmness into FOMC keeps the asian high and Monday's 0.7039 prior high as the cap.
Support: 0.70122, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70233, 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7012 swing low, tested three times, exposes the 0.7009 asian low and the 0.7000 handle
M15 close above the 0.7023 london high puts the 0.7033 asian high back in play; the 0.7039 prior high sits just above
Lower-high trendline from 0.7039 to 0.7033 caps the range top
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the range during NY hours
Australia CPI Wed 00:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the larger event risks beyond this session
24h range 0.7009–0.7039, lower highs over flat lows.
The London open dipped to 0.7012, held above the 0.7009 asian low and bounced. Price is now sitting on both EMAs near 0.7020, with RSI(14) neutral at 51. Highs are stepping lower from the 0.7039 prior high to the 0.7033 asian high, while 0.7009–0.7012 keeps absorbing, so the range is compressing under a firm USD ahead of Wednesday's AU CPI.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7023, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.7023 session high and the lower highs line puts the 0.7033 asian high back in play
A break of the 0.7009 asian low exposes the 0.7000 round number and confirms a lower-low
Only a break of the 0.7039 prior high clears the 24h range top
A loss of the 0.7012 london low takes price below the 78.6% of the asian rally
US durables 12:30 UTC and Conference Board 14:00 UTC could shift this read; AU CPI Wed 00:30 UTC is the larger risk
08:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs inside the Asian range · RSI 37 · price 0.70161
Lower highs from 0.7033 pressing into a 0.7012 triple low.
The Asian rally stalled at the 0.7033 Asian high and has since unwound toward the 78.6% retracement of the Asian range fib. Lower highs have pressed price back to the 0.7012 triple low, which held on Monday's NY dip, during Asia and again into the London open. Firm pre-FOMC USD demand keeps the 0.7023 shelf capping, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR around 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70233, 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7012 triple low and the 0.7009 Asian low would confirm a lower-low and expose the 0.7000 round number
Reclaim of the 0.7023 shelf breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.7033 Asian high
Monday high at 0.7039 sits near the 100-day SMA cap cited in the digest; it remains the outer upside marker
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift this read, ahead of Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC Wednesday
Lower highs 0.7039→0.7033→0.7023 above flat lows at 0.7009–0.7012.
London open dipped straight back to the 0.7012 Asian low and demand absorbed it again. The 0.7009 range low from late NY is still intact, while highs keep stepping lower from Monday's 0.7039 prior high, the rejection near the 100-day SMA on a firm USD. Price sits below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7023, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7023 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.7033 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7012 Asian low and 0.7009 range low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC during NY hours could shift the USD leg of this range
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed are the main range-break risk into the next Asia session
0.7009–0.7033 Asian range intact; lower high under 0.7039.
The Asia rally stalled at the 0.7033 asian high, a lower high under Monday's 0.7039 prior high, as the USD stayed firm into FOMC. London open then broke the 0.7022 asia shelf and tagged 0.7012, a london low that matches Monday's NY-session floor. Price is back past the 61.8% of the Asia leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 44 and still inside the Asian range.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7009 asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.7000 round number
Recovery through the 0.7022 asia shelf and 0.7033 asian high would break the lower-highs line from the 0.7039 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.7012 london low after a third test would weaken the intraday floor
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Conference Board confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift the read during NY hours
Asian rally fully faded; early London pressing intraday low.
The Asian rally from 0.7009 met rejection at the 0.7033 asian high, just under the 100-day SMA cap. Early London has pushed the fade to a 0.7012 intraday low, about 76% of the Asian move, as the USD stays firm into FOMC. Highs at 0.7039 (prior high), 0.7033 and 0.7023 (lower high) form a descending sequence, and RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70233, 0.70329, 0.70389
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.7009 asian low takes out the Asian range and exposes 0.7000 psych
M15 close above the 0.7023 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Holding 0.7012 for a second time after Monday's NY low would form a base at the intraday low
Reclaim of the 0.7033 asian high and 0.7039 prior high needed to unwind the fade
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board confidence 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone during NY session
07:03 UTC
Intraday lower highs, fading into London open · RSI 33 · price 0.7017
Asian rally rejected below Monday high; lower high at 0.7033, pressing toward the NY low.
The Asian session rally from the 0.7009 asian low stalled at the 0.7033 asian high. That is a lower high versus the 0.7039 monday high, and price has since retraced roughly two-thirds of the move ahead of London open. Price now sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 33, just above the 0.7012 ny low, as a firm USD into FOMC keeps upside capped.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7023, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.7009 asian low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.7023 swing high breaks the asia lower highs line and neutralises the fade
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD tone during NY session
Bullock speech and Sep CPI from 00:15 UTC Wed could materially reset this read
Asia HL chain from 0.7009 topped at 0.7033; lower highs since, holding 61.8% fib.
Asia climbed from the 0.7009 asian low to 0.7033, then rolled over short of Monday's 0.7039 prior high as the pre-FOMC USD bid held. The pullback found demand at the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally (0.7018) into the London open. Lower highs at 0.7023 are compressing price, and closes are now slipping under the Asia trendline.
Support: 0.70182, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70233, 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 0.7018 exposes the prior low at 0.7012 and the asian low at 0.7009
Close above the 0.7023 lower high reopens the asian high at 0.7033 and the prior high at 0.7039
Sustained trade under the Asia trendline weakens the higher-low sequence from 0.7009
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift USD tone in NY hours
Bullock speech and AU CPI from 00:15 UTC Wed are the next major AUD risk after this session
06:32 UTC
Range, Asia rally retracing · RSI 46 · price 0.70218
Higher lows off 0.7009, Asian high 0.7033 rejected.
Asia rallied from the 0.7009 swing low to a 0.7033 Asian high, helped by Hunter's 'not quite yet' done comments, before rejecting. The pullback held the 61.8% fib at 0.7018 on rising support, leaving price mid-range below EMA20 into the London open. Monday's 0.7039 prior high near the 100-day SMA capped the NY fade on USD strength.
Support: 0.70182, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 0.7018 breaks rising support and exposes the 0.7012 Asian low and 0.7009 swing low
Close above the 0.7033 Asian high reopens the 0.7039 prior high near the 100-day SMA
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC Wed are the next major risk for this range
06:17 UTC
Intraday range, rising lows off asian low · RSI 46 · price 0.70217
Higher low at 0.7018 inside the 0.7009–0.7033 asian range.
AUDUSD rallied in the Asia session from the 0.7009 asian low to 0.7033 after Hunter's 'not quite yet' remarks. It was rejected there, and supply capped price again as it ran into firm USD. The pullback found demand at the 61.8% fib near 0.7018, printing a higher low on rising support. Price is mid-range at 0.7022, just under the EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and ATR(14) around 3.3 pips about 1h45 before London open.
Support: 0.7018, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7018 61.8% fib breaks rising support and exposes the 0.7009 asian low, then 0.7000 psych
M15 close above the 0.7033 asian high brings yesterday's 0.7039 london high and the ~0.7035 100-day SMA cap back into play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side of the range
AUD CPI (Wed 00:30 UTC) and the FOMC decision are the main range-break risks
Lower high vs Monday's 0.7039, rejection at Asia high, holding the 61.8% retracement.
Late Asia: the overnight leg from the 0.7009 24h low stalled at the 0.7033 Asia high, just under the 100-day SMA zone near 0.7035. The pullback held at the 0.7018 swing low, the 61.8% retracement of that leg. Price is compressing near 0.7022 below EMA20 with RSI(14) ~46 ahead of London open, while USD stays firm into FOMC.
Support: 0.70182, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7018 swing low exposes the 0.7012 Asia low and the 0.7009 24h low
M15 close above the 0.7033 Asia high puts Monday's 0.7039 London high back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Bullock and Australian CPI (Wed 00:15–00:30 UTC) plus FOMC Wed are the larger risks
05:47 UTC
Choppy, intraday pullback from Asia high · RSI 39 · price 0.70197
Asia rally to 0.7033 fully retraced to the 61.8% fib, holding above the 0.7018 swing low.
Monday's London high at 0.7039 faded through NY to a 0.7009 session low. In Asia, AUD bounced to 0.7033 on Hunter's 'not quite yet' remarks and was rejected under the 100-day SMA near 0.7035. Price is now back at the 61.8% fib near 0.7020, sitting on the 0.7018 swing low below both EMAs, with London open about an hour away.
Support: 0.7018, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7018 swing low exposes the 0.7009 session low and the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close back above the 0.7033 asia high, then the 0.7039 prior high, invalidates the rejection read
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
Bullock speech and Australia CPI from 00:15 UTC Wed are the next major risk for this range
24h range 0.7009–0.7039; Asia rally faded back to fib support.
The Asia rally from the 0.7009 Asian low met rejection at the 0.7033 session high. Price has since given back about 60% of that move into the 61.8% fib at 0.7018, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs late in Asia. Monday's London prior high at 0.7039 and NY low at 0.7012 still frame the range, with a firm USD into the Fed capping the bounce.
Support: 0.70182, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7025, 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.7018 (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.7012 ny low and the 0.7009 asian low
Recovery back above the 0.7025 breakdown level reopens the 0.7033 session high and the 0.7039 prior high
London open is around 2.5h away and is the first test of the Asian range
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today, then Bullock and Australia CPI at 00:15/00:30 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Intraday higher lows, momentum faded from Asian high · RSI 45 · price 0.70215
Asia leg 0.7009–0.7033 retraced to 61.8%; higher-low chain intact.
Asia session lifted AUDUSD to an Asian high of 0.7033, helped by RBA Hunter's hawkish remark. It was rejected just shy of the 100-day SMA near 0.7035 that the digest flags as the cap. The 15-pip fade found demand at 0.7018, the fib 61.8 of the Asia leg, keeping the rising trendline of higher lows from the 0.7009 Asian low intact; price sits on EMA50, below EMA20, RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.70182, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.7018 fib 61.8 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.7012 NY low and 0.7009 Asian low
Recovery through the 0.7033 Asian high brings Monday's 0.7039 london high back into play
London open in under 2h; US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and Australia CPI 00:30 UTC Wed are the next major AUD risk
Lower high at 0.7033 under Monday's 0.7039; Asian higher lows under test.
Asia climbed from the 0.7009 asian low to 0.7033 but stalled under the ~0.7035 100-day SMA and below Monday's 0.7039 high. Late in the Asia session it has given back about 14 pips on firm USD. Price is sitting on the 61.8% retrace and the Asia trendline near 0.7018, with RSI(14) near 42 and the 0.7012 swing low just below.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.7012 swing low and the 0.7009 asian low unwinds the Asia rally and exposes 0.7000 psych
A recovery above the 0.7027 ny high puts the 0.7033 asian high and 0.7039 monday high back in play
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg during NY hours
Bullock speech at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed are the main AUD risks ahead
04:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, pulling back · RSI 53 · price 0.70241
Higher lows off 0.7009, capped below prior high.
Late in the Asia session, AUD rallied from the 0.7009 asian low to the 0.7033 asian high on hawkish RBA rhetoric. That move printed higher lows but stalled short of Monday's 0.7039 London prior high. Price has slipped 9 pips back onto the 0.7024 higher low. It sits just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 53 and ATR(14) around 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.7024, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7024 higher low exposes the 0.7021 50% retracement of the Asia rally and the 0.7012 swing low
An M15 close above the 0.7033 asian high reopens the 0.7039 prior high
Loss of the 0.7009 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC, then Bullock and AU CPI from 00:15 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
Early Asia briefly undercut the 0.7012 NY low, setting the Asian low at 0.7009, then built higher lows to 0.7033 on RBA hawkishness from Hunter. Late in the Asia session, price is holding a shallow pullback near 0.7029. It sits above the 0.7024 swing low and below the Asian high, with Monday's 0.7039 London prior high capping overhead.
Support: 0.70236, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.7033 Asian high exposes the 0.7039 prior high, where Monday's rally failed
A break below the 0.7024 swing low puts the higher-low sequence at risk and reopens the 0.7009 Asian low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could reset the NY session range
04:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asia higher highs and higher lows · RSI 69 · price 0.70309
Asia rally holding just above the 0.70280 prior high, below the session high.
The Asia rally off the 0.70090 session low built a higher-high/higher-low chain. It cleared the 0.70280 prior high and printed a 0.70330 session high, with RSI(14) near 69 and Hunter's RBA comments underpinning AUD. Price is now holding a retest of the prior high, below the 0.70389 monday high where supply capped London near the 100-day SMA.
Support: 0.7028, 0.70236, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70330 session high puts the 0.70389 monday high back in play
Slip back below the 0.70280 prior high turns the breakout into a stall inside the Asia rally
Failure to hold the 0.70236 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain toward the 0.70090 session low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 67 · price 0.70313
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia from the 0.7009 overnight low.
Asia session climbed from the 0.7009 overnight low, printed a higher low at 0.7012 and cleared the 0.7027 prior high, helped by RBA's Hunter flagging more inflation work. Price is now just under the 0.7033 session high, with the 0.7039 Monday high above. Supply capped price there on Monday before the drop to 0.7012.
Support: 0.70275, 0.70236, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.70329, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7039 Monday high breaks the cap that held Monday
Failure to hold the 0.7027 prior high and the 0.7024 swing low on the rising trendline turns the Asian advance into a range
Loss of the 0.7012 higher low ends the higher-low sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the NY session read
03:47 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 70 · price 0.7032
Higher-low chain through Asia, break above 0.7028.
The Asia rally off the 0.7009 asian low has stacked higher lows along a rising trendline, helped by Hunter's 'not quite yet' remarks and softer oil. Price cleared 0.7028 to print a session high at 0.7033, just under the 0.7039 prior high where supply capped Monday's London advance. RSI(14) near 70 is hot but not stretched, and the 0.7024 swing low marks the breakout base.
Support: 0.7024, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7024 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.7039 prior high clears Monday's London peak; rejection there keeps price inside the session range
US durable goods and consumer confidence during NY hours could shift USD tone ahead of Bullock and AU CPI early Wednesday
03:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend through Asia, below Monday's high · RSI 67 · price 0.70284
Higher lows off 0.7009 Asian low, pressing above NY high.
Mid-Asia, price is building higher lows off the 0.7009 Asian low and edging above Monday's 0.7027 NY high. RBA Assistant Governor Hunter's 'not quite yet' comments are helping. Monday's London rally stalled at the 0.7039 Monday high, near the 100-day SMA at 0.7035, so the 0.7029 session high to 0.7039 is the zone that has capped price. RSI(14) sits around 67, warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7024, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7029, 0.7035, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7024 pullback low would turn the push above the ny high into a false break
Clearance of the 0.7035 100-day SMA and 0.7039 Monday high would end the lower-high sequence since London
Loss of the 0.7012 NY low reopens the 0.7009 Asian low and breaks the higher lows
RBA's Bullock (00:15 UTC Wed) and AU CPI (00:30 UTC Wed) are the next major event risk for this range
Asian higher low at 0.7012 off the 0.7009 low, now a tight 0.7024–0.7028 pause.
The Asia session rebounded from the 0.7009 session low, printed a higher low at 0.7012 and lifted to a 0.7028 session high as RBA Assistant Governor Hunter's hawkish remarks underpinned AUD. Price is now stalling just under that high, holding above the 0.7021 area that lines up with the 38.2% fib of the overnight leg.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7028 session high opens Monday's 0.7039 high
Loss of the 0.7021 38.2% fib brings the 0.7012 higher low back into play
A break below the 0.7009 session low unwinds the Asian rising support
US durable goods in NY later today, with Bullock and AU CPI at 00:15/00:30 UTC Wed, could reset this read
03:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at session high · RSI 61 · price 0.70248
Higher low at 0.7012 off 0.7009 swing low, 0.7021 break level cleared.
Asia session built a double bottom at the 0.7009 swing low and 0.7012 higher low, then cleared the 0.7021 break level. Price is now pausing just under the 0.7028 session high, with Monday's 0.7039 london high above; RSI(14) is near 61. Monday's broad USD bid drove the slide from 0.7039, and RBA's Hunter saying the bank is 'not quite yet' done on inflation helped the Asian rebound.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7028 session high opens a test of the 0.7039 london high
Loss of the 0.7021 break level puts the breakout at risk and turns focus back to the 0.7012 higher low
A break below the 0.7009 swing low voids the double bottom
Bullock speech (00:15 UTC Wed) and AU CPI (00:30 UTC Wed) could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Asia recovery, stalling at 61.8% · RSI 64 · price 0.70251
Higher low 0.7012 off 0.7009, capped below 0.7028.
After Monday's pre-Fed USD bid drove a slide from the 0.7039 monday high to a 0.7009 swing low, the Asia session has printed a higher low at 0.7012. The rebound has retraced about 62% of that drop and is stalling just under the 0.7028 asia high, with RSI(14) near 64 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7028 asia high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 0.7039 monday high
Break below the 0.7012 higher low and the asia rising lows trendline puts the 0.7009 swing low back in play
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) in the NY session could shift the USD leg of this read
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wednesday sit just beyond this window and will likely compress the range ahead
02:32 UTC
Monday downtrend, Asia recovery in progress · RSI 67 · price 0.70272
London's rejection at the 0.7039 london high, near the 100-day SMA, unwound to 0.7009 as USD firmed. Asia has built a double btm at 0.7009/0.7012 and is now pressing the 0.7026 ny swing hi, which coincides with the 61.8% retracement of that drop. RSI(14) is near 67, firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.70269, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70326, 0.70389
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.7026 ny swing hi confirms the double btm and puts the 0.7033 mon asia hi in play
Failure back below 0.7026 keeps the drop-retracement capped at 61.8% and reopens the double btm at 0.7009
Bullock (00:15 UTC) and AU CPI (00:30 UTC) Wednesday, plus US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, pressing resistance · RSI 62 · price 0.7025
Higher lows at 0.7009 and 0.7012, testing the 0.7027 NY high.
Early Tokyo, the Asia rally is up from the 0.7009 Asia low, with a higher low at 0.7012. Price is now stalling at 0.7027, the NY high that capped Monday's rebound after the London high at 0.7039 failed under the 100-day SMA near 0.7035 on broad USD firmness. RSI(14) at 62 is not stretched, and the old 0.7021 prior high is now the first pivot below.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7035, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7027 (ny high) exposes the 100-day SMA at 0.7035 and the 0.7039 London high
Loss of 0.7021 (prior high) puts the higher-low trendline and 0.7012 back in focus
Break below the 0.7009 Asia low invalidates the intraday higher-low sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC during NY hours could shift this read
AU CPI and Bullock early Wednesday UTC are the next major AUD catalysts
02:03 UTC
Intraday rebound, pressing range top · RSI 65 · price 0.70258
Higher low at 0.7012 after 0.7009 swing low; 0.7022 pivot cleared.
Asia session put in a higher low at 0.7012 above the 0.7009 swing low, then cleared the 0.7022 asia pivot. Price is now testing yesterday's NY prior high at 0.7027 with RSI(14) near 65. The 100-day SMA near 0.7035 has capped repeated attempts, below Monday's 0.7039 London high, as USD firmness into the FOMC keeps rallies contained.
Support: 0.70218, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70269, 0.7035, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7027 prior high opens the 100-day SMA near 0.7035, then the 0.7039 london high
Pullback holding the 50% of the Asia rally fib (~0.7018) keeps the higher-low trendline intact
Return below the 0.7022 asia pivot reverts to the prior 0.7009–0.7027 range
Loss of the 0.7012 higher low and the 0.7009 swing low negates the double bottom
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD tone; AU CPI and Bullock early Wednesday UTC are the larger risk
London high 0.7039 to 0.7009 Asian low; Asia printing a higher low, capped at NY high.
After the London high at 0.7039 failed, a firm USD drove a slide through NY to an Asian low of 0.7009. Early Asia has set a higher low at 0.7012 off the asian low and pushed to 0.7026, where the NY high capped it; RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and price sits back above both EMAs.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7027 NY high opens the path to the 0.7039 London high
Loss of the 0.7012 higher low breaks the asia hl line and exposes the 0.7009 asian low and 0.7000 round number
Holding the 38.2–50% zone of the asia leg (0.7020–0.7018) keeps the rebound structure intact
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) in NY hours could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia rebound testing it · RSI 60 · price 0.70217
Lower highs from London high; Asia higher low at 0.7012.
Monday's London high at 0.7039 was rejected just above the 100-day SMA near 0.7035. USD short-covering then drove a slide to the 0.7009 asian low at the Asia open. Asia has since printed a higher low at 0.7012 and price is pressing the asian high near 0.7022, with the 0.7027 ny high capping above.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7027, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7022 asian high and the 0.7027 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7012 higher low reopens the 0.7009 asian low
US Durables at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could shift this read
01:17 UTC
Down from Monday high, lower highs intact · RSI 41 · price 0.70144
Monday's London spike to the 0.7039 monday high was rejected near the 100-day SMA cap, and NY broke down to the 0.7012 ny low on broad USD strength. Highs have stepped lower since (0.7027 ny pm high, 0.7022 asia high). Asia is giving back the bounce off the 0.7009 asia low, with price back near the 0.7012 ny low and RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7027, 0.7039
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.7009 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.7000 round number
M15 close above the 0.7022 asia high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 0.7027 ny pm high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then Bullock and AU CPI Wed 00:15–00:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London high; Asia swept the double low and reclaimed it.
Lower highs have printed since Monday's London high at 0.7039, a rejection the market digest ties to a firm USD into FOMC. Early in the Asia session price swept the 0.7012 double low to a 0.7009 session low and recovered, but the bounce stalled at the 0.7022 session high near the 38.2% fib. Price now sits mid-range around 0.7015, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70218, 0.70269, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7027 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 50% fib near 0.7024–0.7028
Failure to hold the 0.7009 session low extends the downtrend toward the 0.7000 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC in the NY session could shift this read; Bullock and AU CPI early Wednesday UTC are the larger risk
00:47 UTC
Downtrend from London high, early-Asia bounce · RSI 58 · price 0.70195
Lower highs since 0.7039; 0.7012 NY low swept to 0.7009 and reclaimed.
Monday's London push to the 0.7039 london high stalled near the 100-day SMA zone. Price then bled lower through NY on broad USD buying. A late sweep of the 0.7012 ny low to 0.7009 was reclaimed in early Asia, and the bounce is now pressing the 0.7022 asia high at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 58 and price hovering just above EMA50.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70218, 0.70269, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7022 asia high and 38.2% fib opens the 0.7027 ny high and the descending highs line.
Loss of the 0.7009 sweep low turns the reclaim into a fresh lower low, with 0.7000 psych next.
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC later today could materially shift the USD side of this read.
Lower highs since London high; Asia rebound pressing the lower-highs line.
Lower highs have stacked up since Monday's 0.7039 london high. Broad USD buying ahead of the Fed took NY through 0.7020 to the 0.7012 ny low. Early Asia briefly broke that to a 0.7009 day low and recovered to a 0.7022 session high. Price is now near the 50% retrace of the 0.7027–0.7009 leg, back above EMA20 but capped at EMA50 ~0.7019.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70218, 0.70269, 0.70389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7022 session high breaks the lower-highs line, putting the 0.7027 swing high in focus
Return below the 0.7012 ny low and the 0.7009 day low resumes the downtrend, with 0.7000 psych below
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then Bullock and AU CPI Wed 00:15/00:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 55 · price 0.70189
Lower highs from 0.7039; false break below 0.7012 NY low reclaimed.
Monday's 0.7039 London high was rejected near the 100-day SMA. Broad USD buying then set a lower-highs sequence, with the 0.7027 NY high capping the afternoon rebound. Early Asia dipped below the 0.7012 NY low to a 0.7009 swing low, reclaimed it and is now pressing the 0.7022 session high, with RSI(14) near 55 and price just under EMA50.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7027, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7022 session high extends the bounce into the 0.7027 NY high and the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.7009 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes 0.7000 psych
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today could shift this read; Bullock and AU CPI at 00:15/00:30 UTC Wed are the larger risk
00:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 52 · price 0.70178
Lower highs from London high; sweep of NY low then reclaim.
London's run to the 0.7039 london high stalled just above the 100-day SMA zone near 0.7035. Price then bled through Monday's Asian low and a 0.7012 ny low as USD was bought ahead of the FOMC. Early Tuesday Asia swept that low to a 0.7009 sweep low and reclaimed it, and price is now pressing the 0.7020 38.2% fib and the falling trendline from the London high.
Support: 0.7012, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7027, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7020 38.2% fib clears the falling trendline and brings the 0.7027 ny bounce high (61.8% fib) into view
Return below the 0.7012 ny low turns the sweep into a fresh lower low, exposing the 0.7009 sweep low and the 0.7000 psych handle
0.7039 london high remains the intraday ceiling near the 100-day SMA
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) in the NY session could reshape the USD leg; Bullock and AU CPI at 00:15–00:30 UTC Wed are the larger risk