AUDUSD has held a 0.7010–0.7040 range since Friday's NY rally. The range top capped Monday's London push at 0.7039 and Tuesday's NY spike to 0.7040, while demand held the range floor near 0.7010 in both Monday's NY session and Tuesday's Asian session. Tuesday's 0.7009–0.7040 leg has retraced about half, back to the 0.7027 weekly open. Price sits on a flat EMA(20), with the ema50 just below at 0.7025, RSI(14) near 50 and ATR around 6 pips. That is typical pre-CPI coiling, with hawkish RBA pricing offsetting a firm USD into the Fed.
Support: 0.7025, 0.7010, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7050
What it said to watch
AU CPI at 00:30 GMT, with Bullock speaking at 00:15, is about 90 minutes out and could break the range in either direction
An H1 close above the 0.7040 range top opens the path to the 0.7050 round number
An H1 close below the 0.7010 range floor confirms a range break and exposes 0.7000 psych
Losing the ema50 at 0.7025 would shift focus back to the range floor
The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC Wednesday could reverse any CPI-driven move
22:04 UTC
Sideways, higher lows under a flat ceiling · RSI 48 · price 0.70246
Flat-topped range: higher lows pressing a 0.7040 cap.
AUDUSD has printed higher lows at 0.6994 (swing low), 0.7004 and 0.7009 since Thursday, but the 0.7040 week high capped Friday's NY rally, Monday's London push and Tuesday's NY spike, with Tuesday's fade the latest rejection. Price is back just under a flat EMA(20) near 0.7026, at the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Tuesday rally, with RSI(14) near 48. RBA-hike expectations are lifting the dips while a firm USD into the Fed caps the top.
Support: 0.7009, 0.7000, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.70262, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock (00:15 GMT) and AU CPI (00:30 GMT) could break either edge of the range within hours
H1 close above the 0.7040 week high breaks the flat top of the range
Failure to hold the 0.7009 higher low and the higher-low line exposes 0.7000 psych and the 0.6994 swing low
Reclaiming the ema20 near 0.7026 would point to Tuesday's fade stalling at the fib support
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:06 UTC
Range-bound, rising lows under a flat cap · RSI 49 · price 0.70251
0.7009–0.7040 range, higher lows since Friday.
AUDUSD has spent the week boxed between the 0.7009 week low and the 0.7040 week high. The 0.7038–0.7040 cap rejected price on Friday, twice on Monday and again during NY hours Tuesday, when USD firmed on the durable goods and confidence beats. Lows have crept higher since Friday's 0.7004 swing. Price is retracing Tuesday's Asia-to-NY rally and sits near the 50% level, just under EMA(20) and the 0.7027 weekly open, flat on EMA(50), with RSI(14) back at 49 and ATR(14) near 7 pips.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7036, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock speech at 00:15 GMT and AU CPI at 00:30 GMT: trimmed mean vs 0.3% m/m could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 0.7036 prior close and the 0.7040 week high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.7021 and then the 0.7009 week low ends the rising-lows sequence, with 0.7000 psych next
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC: hawkish guidance would keep supply capping the range top
0.7012–0.7040 range since Monday's open, price pinned to weekly open.
The Thursday-to-Tuesday rally ran from the 0.6994 thursday low, set in the London session, to 0.7040. Since then the pair has held a 0.7012–0.7040 range, with the range floor defended at Monday's NY open on broad USD strength and again at Tuesday's London open, near the 61.8% retracement. Tuesday's NY push to a 0.7040 week high met rejection at the range top near the 100-day SMA cap, and price has faded back to the 0.7027 weekly open and a flat EMA(20), with RSI(14) easing to the high 50s and ATR compressed near 7 pips ahead of event risk.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7012, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock testimony at 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed (trimmed mean ~3.6% y/y f/c) could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 0.7040 week high / range top, or above the 0.70359 prior close as a first step, invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 0.7012 range floor exposes the 0.6994 thursday low
Repeated H1 closes below the 0.7027 weekly open and EMA(20) mark a shift toward the lower half of the range
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is a second catalyst for the range boundaries
19:04 UTC
Sideways, range-bound near the week highs · RSI 54 · price 0.70269
0.7009–0.7040 range; Tuesday's higher-low leg rejected at range top.
Since Monday's weekly open at 0.7027, AUD/USD has held a 0.7009–0.7040 range. The range top capped three attempts: Monday's opening bars near the prior close at 0.7036, Monday's London high and Tuesday's NY-session spike to 0.7040, in line with the 0.7035–0.7040 cap flagged in the digest as USD firmed into the FOMC. Tuesday's leg from the Asia week low at 0.7009 printed higher lows into NY before the rejection. Price has since faded back onto the weekly open and EMA(20), between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Tuesday leg, with the EMA(50) near 0.7025 and the swing low at 0.7012 below. RSI(14) sits near 54 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 7 pips ahead of event risk.
Support: 0.7025, 0.7012, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7036, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7040 range top breaks the three-test cap and invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the ema50 near 0.7025 (50% of the Tuesday leg) exposes the 0.7012 swing low and the 0.7009 week low
Bullock testimony at 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC (trimmed mean f/c ~3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC Wed adds a second event risk to the range boundaries
18:04 UTC
Sideways, capped at 0.7040 · RSI 52 · price 0.70267
0.7009–0.7040 range, flat highs, rising lows.
Range-bound since the 0.7027 weekly open. Three pushes into 0.7039–0.7040 (week high) have been rejected, while Monday's NY sell-off and Tuesday's Asia dip held 0.7012/0.7009 (week low), keeping the rising lows off Thursday's 0.6994 swing low intact. Tuesday's NY rally to the range top faded as the USD firmed on the Durable Goods and consumer confidence beats, returning price to the weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.7027, about halfway into the fib of Tuesday's swing, with RSI(14) flat near 52 and ATR(14) compressed at ~7 pips ahead of event risk.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7009, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.7040
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.7040 week high breaks the range top that has capped three tests this week
H1 acceptance back above the 0.7036 prior close puts the range top back in play
Acceptance below the 0.7027 weekly open/EMA(20) shifts focus to the 0.7021 fib 61.8%
Failure to hold the 0.7009 week low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.6994 swing low
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed (trimmed mean vs 3.6%), then FOMC at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Sideways, rising lows under a flat cap · RSI 51 · price 0.7029
0.7010–0.7040 range with higher lows compressing into the range top.
AUDUSD has held a 0.7010–0.7040 range since Monday's 0.7027 open. Tuesday's Asian-session dip to the 0.7009 week low held near the 61.8% of the rally fib off last Thursday's 0.6994 prior low, then price climbed through London and NY to the 0.7040 week high, where a fourth test since Friday met rejection as firm US durables and confidence data kept the USD bid. Rising lows are compressing price beneath the range top, and the pullback now sits on EMA(20) near 0.7026 with RSI(14) flat around 51.
Support: 0.7026, 0.7009, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7040
What it said to watch
AU CPI at 00:30 UTC, with Bullock speaking at 00:15 UTC, could materially shift this read. Trimmed mean vs 3.6% is the swing factor.
An H1 close above the 0.7040 week high breaks the range top that has capped four tests.
Loss of the EMA(20) at 0.7026 exposes the rising lows line and the week low near 0.7010.
A break below the 0.6994 prior low invalidates the rising-lows structure.
The FOMC decision Wednesday at 18:00 UTC is a second event risk for the range.
0.7009–0.7040 range; Tuesday higher lows pressing range top.
AUD/USD has held a 0.7009–0.7040 range all week. Monday's NY session slid to 0.7012 on broad USD strength, then Tuesday held the week low near 0.7009 in Asia and again at London open before building higher lows into NY, with Hunter's 'not quite yet' RBA remarks offsetting firm US data. The rally tagged a fresh week high at 0.7040, the fourth test of the range top since Friday, and met rejection, though price still sits above the weekly open at 0.7027 and EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7009, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7040 week high breaks the range top and exposes the 0.7050 round number
Loss of the weekly open at 0.7027 and the Tuesday higher lows trendline returns price to mid-range, with the 61.8% of the Tuesday rally near 0.7021
Failure at the 0.7009 week low opens the prior low at 0.6994
Bullock speech at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed (trimmed mean vs 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the second event risk for the range
15:03 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows pressing the top · RSI 61 · price 0.70384
0.7009-0.7040 range; third retest of range top.
Tuesday's London session drove a 30-pip climb from Monday's 0.7009 week low back to the 0.7039-0.7040 week high, the third test of that range top after Sunday's open and Monday's London high. Supply capped the first two attempts as USD firmed into the FOMC. Higher lows since last Thursday's 0.6994 trough keep the rising trendline intact, price holds above EMA(20) and RSI(14) at 61 is firm without being stretched, with caution ahead of Wednesday's AU CPI keeping the range top in play.
Support: 0.7026, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7040 week high breaks the range top and opens the 0.7050 round number
Rejection at 0.7040 and a slip back under EMA(20) near 0.7026 brings the 61.8% of the Tuesday rally (~0.7021) into view
Break of the 0.7009 week low and the higher lows trendline exposes 0.7000 psych
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read, with the FOMC at 18:00 UTC Wed following
14:03 UTC
Sideways, lows rising inside a tight range · RSI 57 · price 0.70283
0.7010-0.7039 range since Monday, capped on top and holding higher lows.
AUDUSD gapped lower to the 0.7027 week open, then rejected at the 0.7039 week high in Monday's Asia session and slid into NY hours as USD firmness and softer oil weighed. Demand returned at the range low near the 61.8% fib twice, late Monday and at Tuesday's London open, keeping the higher-low trendline from Thursday's 0.6994 low intact. Hawkish RBA rhetoric lifted price to a 0.7037 Tue high in NY, which faded after the strong US durable goods beat. Price now sits just above EMA20 (0.7024) with RSI(14) near 57, mid-range ahead of Australia CPI.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7024, 0.7010
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7039, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7039 week high breaks the range top and opens the 0.7050 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.7010 range low and the higher-low trendline turns structure to lower-lows
Repeated H1 closes below EMA20 and the week open shift the range read toward the lower half
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and Australia CPI 00:30 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wednesday 18:00 UTC is the second event risk for the range
13:04 UTC
Sideways, recovering toward range top · RSI 59 · price 0.70316
Range 0.7009–0.7039 since Friday, with rising lows off Thursday's low.
AUDUSD has been boxed between the 0.7012 range low and the 0.7039 range top since Friday's NY rally. The range top coincides with the 100-DMA zone, and supply has capped four tests there across Friday, Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday's London dip held 0.7012, near the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday-to-Monday leg, and price has since climbed back above EMA(20) and the 0.7027 weekly open, helped by RBA's Hunter saying the bank is 'not quite yet' done on inflation, despite a firm USD after the Durable Goods headline beat.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7012, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7039 range top would break the four-test cap and expose the 0.7050 ma cluster
Loss of the 0.7027 weekly open and EMA(20) returns price to the middle of the range
Break below the 0.7012 range low and the rising lows line would open Thursday's 0.6994 low
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wednesday, could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wednesday 18:00 UTC is the second event risk for range resolution
Since Monday's open AUDUSD has held a 0.7009–0.7039 range. The week high near the 0.7040 100-day SMA capped both the Asia and London attempts, and NY-hours USD strength then pressed price to the range floor, close to the 61.8% fib of the swing low rally from last Thursday. Tuesday's London session lifted price back above ema20 (~0.7024, flat alongside EMA50) to a day high at 0.7036, a third lower high, while the higher lows from Thursday stay intact and RSI(14) near 54 with ATR(14) ~7 pips points to compression ahead of AU CPI.
Support: 0.70241, 0.7009, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.70393
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7039 week high breaks the range cap and the lower highs line
Loss of the 0.7009 range floor and the higher lows line exposes the 0.6994 swing low below 0.7000
Holding ema20 at ~0.7024 keeps the Tuesday London rebound structure intact
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC today could test the range edges
Bullock 00:15 UTC and AU Q3 CPI 00:30 UTC Wed, then FOMC 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
11:04 UTC
Range-bound, recovering toward range top · RSI 58 · price 0.70325
0.7009–0.7039 range since Friday; higher low at 0.7012 into a retest of the highs.
AUDUSD has held a 0.7009–0.7039 range since Friday's NY rally. Monday's week high at 0.7039 was rejected twice, at the Asia open and in London, at the 100-DMA cap the digest flags, and the firmer USD pushed price into early NY lows. The pullback stalled at the 61.8% fib of the Thursday-to-Monday rally, around the 0.7009 Tuesday low, and along rising lows from Friday. London has since lifted price back above the ema20 (~0.7024) to retest the 0.7036 London high, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.7024, 0.7009, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7039 week high breaks the range top and the 100-DMA cap
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.7024 and the rising lows returns focus to the 0.7009 Tuesday low
A break of the 0.6994 Thursday low would unwind the Thursday-to-Monday rally
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today could move the USD side
AU CPI Wed 00:30 UTC (Bullock 00:15 UTC) and the FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.6994 against lower highs under 0.7039.
AUDUSD has held a 0.6994–0.7039 band all week. The Thursday-to-Monday rally stalled at the 0.7039 week high, and Tuesday's Asia-session push was rejected at the 0.7033 tue high as a firmer USD capped gains despite hawkish RBA rhetoric. Pullbacks have found the 0.7011 swing low three times, near the 61.8% retracement of that rally, while price oscillates around a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 0.7022 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s. Lower highs against higher lows are compressing price just under the 0.7027 weekly open.
Support: 0.7022, 0.7011, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7039 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range read
Close below the 0.7011 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.7000 round number
Repeated failure to hold above the weekly open and tue high keeps the compression intact
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today could test the 0.7022 ema20 area
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC Wednesday, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:05 UTC
Sideways, compressing under the week high · RSI 54 · price 0.70261
Lower highs from 0.7039 against higher lows from 0.6994.
Monday's week high at 0.7039 was set at the Asia open and retested at London, then faded into the NY session to 0.7012. Tuesday's London open revisited that level, forming twin lows on the 61.8% retrace of the Thursday–Monday leg, while the Asia high stalled at 0.7033 for a lower high. That cap sits near the 100-day SMA (~0.7035) flagged in the digest, with a firm USD into FOMC capping each push; price is back above EMA(20) around 0.7021 with RSI(14) near 54, mid-range between the rising trendline off the 0.6994 week low and the lower-high line.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7012, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7039 week high breaks the lower-high sequence and the range cap
Failure to hold the 0.7012 twin lows and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6994 week low
Slipping back below the ema20 near 0.7021 returns price to the lower half of the range
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence 14:00 UTC today could test either edge
Bullock 00:15 UTC and Australia CPI 00:30 UTC Wed, then FOMC 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside a 0.7009–0.7039 range, rising lows beneath.
Monday's push to the week high at 0.7039 was rejected in the area the digest ties to the 100-day SMA. Broad USD strength then drove a NY-session drop back to 0.7012, and Tuesday's Asia bounce stalled at 0.7033 for a lower high. Price now sits below ema20 (~0.7020) and the 0.7027 weekly open, right on the 50% retracement of the Thursday–Monday rally, with RSI(14) near 45 and drifting under 50; the tuesday low at 0.7009 and the 0.7000 psych level form the range floor, with the rising lows trendline from Thursday's swing low at 0.6994 underneath.
Support: 0.7009, 0.7000, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7033, 0.70393
What it said to watch
H1 close below the tuesday low at 0.7009 would confirm a double top from 0.7039 and expose 0.7000 psych
A reclaim of ema20 and a close through the tuesday high at 0.7033 would break the lower-highs sequence and put the week high at 0.7039 back in play
A break of the rising lows trendline and Thursday's swing low at 0.6994 would shift the read to a lower-low structure
US Durable Goods and Conference Board Confidence today, then Australia CPI Wed 00:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday inside a 0.7004–0.7039 range.
The window's main impulse ran from Thursday's 0.6994 swing low to the 0.7039 week high in Monday's Asia session, but supply has capped every test of the 0.7033–0.7039 area, which sits near the 100-day SMA. A firmer USD into the FOMC drove Monday's NY-session drop to 0.7012. Tuesday's Asia rebound on RBA Hunter's hawkish remarks stalled at the 0.7033 tuesday high, extending the lower highs, and price now trades just under the ema20 (~0.7020), at the 50% retrace of the Thu-Mon rally fib, with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-40s.
Support: 0.7009, 0.7004, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.7039 week high breaks the range top and the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 0.7009 asia low (61.8% of the Thu-Mon rally) exposes the 0.7004 friday low and 0.7000
Loss of the 0.6994 swing low would invalidate the Thursday–Monday rally structure
Price back above ema20 and the 0.7033 tuesday high would ease the lower-highs read
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today could move USD before the main events
Bullock speech and AU Sep CPI from 00:15/00:30 UTC Wed, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
0.7009–0.7039 range; lower highs Mon–Tue against shallow rising lows.
The week opened at 0.7027 after a small weekend gap lower. Asia and London both met rejection at the 0.7039 week high on Monday, and the NY session then sold to 0.7012 on broad USD strength. In Tuesday's Asia session price dipped to the 0.7009 asian low and bounced to 0.7033 on Hunter's 'not quite yet' remarks, but faded again below the weekly open. It now sits flat on EMA(20) near 0.7022, just under EMA(50) near 0.7024, with RSI(14) at 51. Lower highs since Monday against rising lows from last week's 0.6994 low leave the range compressing ahead of CPI, with roughly 66% of the 0.6994–0.7039 rally retraced.
Support: 0.7009, 0.7000, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.7039 week high breaks the range and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.7009 asian low and the rising-lows line exposes psych 0.7000 and the 0.6994 last wk low
Recovery back above the weekly open at 0.7027 and the 0.7033 tuesday high would ease the lower-highs read
Bullock speech 00:15 UTC and Sep CPI 00:30 UTC Wed (f/c 4.2% y/y) could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC today and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC are the USD-side risks to the range
Rising lows against lower highs inside a 0.6994–0.7039 range.
AUDUSD has held a 0.6994–0.7039 range since Wednesday, and every push into the 0.7035–0.7039 range top has been capped. That zone sits around the ~0.7035 100-day SMA. Monday's London high was the latest rejection, after which broad USD strength dragged price to 0.7012 into the NY open. Lows keep rising (thu low 0.6994, Friday 0.7004, week low 0.7009 in Tuesday's Asian session) while highs step lower to the 0.7033 tue high, compressing the range into Wednesday's CPI and Fed. Price at 0.7020 sits just under ema20 (~0.7022) and EMA(50), at the 50–61.8% zone of the fri rally fib, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.7009, 0.7000, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7033, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7039 range top would break the repeated cap at the ~0.7035 100-day SMA and the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 0.7009 week low breaks the rising lows line and exposes 0.7000 psych and the 0.6994 thu low
Reclaim of ema20 near 0.7022 and the 0.7033 tue high would reopen a test of the range top
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC today, then Bullock at 00:15 UTC and Sept CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed, and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Sideways, higher lows building · RSI 58 · price 0.70315
Higher lows under a flat 0.7035-0.7039 cap.
Friday's NY-session rally and Monday's Asia and London highs both stalled at 0.7038-0.7039. That is the monday high, sitting just above the 100d SMA near 0.7035 flagged in the digest. NY then pulled price back to 0.7012 on broad USD strength. Tuesday's Asia low at 0.7009 extends a run of higher lows from Thursday's 0.6994 low (thu low), and price has reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.7023 with RSI(14) back near 58.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7009, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7035, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7039 monday high breaks the range top and the 100d SMA cap
Failure to hold the 0.7009 asia low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the thu low at 0.6994 back in focus
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 0.7023 keep the higher-low structure intact
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC today could test the range edges
Bullock 00:15 UTC and AU CPI 00:30 UTC Wed, then FOMC later Wed, could materially shift this read
AUD/USD has been boxed in a 0.6994–0.7039 range across the window. Monday's London push stalled at the 0.7039 week high, just above the 100-day SMA the digest flags near 0.7035, before USD short-covering into the NY open dragged price to 0.7012. Demand returned at the 0.7009 Asia low, and the rebound, helped by RBA Hunter's hawkish remarks, has reclaimed the ema cluster near 0.7022 and retraced roughly half of Monday's drop, with RSI(14) back near 54 and price pressing the 0.7028 Asia high.
Support: 0.7022, 0.7009, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7039 week high breaks the range top and clears the 100-day SMA zone
Failure to hold the 0.7009 Asia low exposes the 0.6994 prior low and the 0.7000 handle
Slipping back under the ema cluster at 0.7022 returns price to the lower half of the range
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today could test the 0.7028 Asia high
Bullock's speech and AU Sep CPI from 00:15 UTC Wed, then the FOMC at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double top at 0.7039 broke lower; retesting the weekly open.
AUDUSD has rotated inside a 0.6994–0.7039 range since Wednesday. Supply capped the prior close and week high zone at 0.7036–0.7039 twice, at Sunday's open and again in Monday's London session. USD short-covering ahead of the FOMC then drove a NY-session drop through the 0.7022 double-top neckline to the 0.7009 week low. Asia has since lifted price back above EMA(20) near 0.7021, with RSI(14) recovering to 54 from below 40, and it is now retesting the 0.7027 weekly open, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of Monday's drop fib.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7009, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7036, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.7027 weekly open and then the 0.7039 week high would void the double top and break the range ceiling
Rejection at the weekly open and loss of ema20 at 0.7021 would reopen the 0.7009 week low; below that, the 0.6994 swing low is next
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today could shift USD tone into the NY session
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed, then the FOMC at 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
0.6994–0.7039 range since Wednesday; repeated caps at the range top, lows holding above 0.7000.
AUDUSD has held a 0.6994–0.7039 range since Wednesday. The range top near the 100-day SMA capped Friday's NY-session rally and then rejected Monday's London push to 0.7039 as USD short-covering returned. Price has since slipped below EMA(20) near 0.7020 and the weekly open at 0.7027, retracing roughly 70% of the Friday–Monday rally fib with RSI(14) near 42, while Monday's 0.7012 low and the Asia low at 0.7009 sit just beneath.
Support: 0.7009, 0.7000, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7027, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7000 psych level and Thursday's 0.6994 swing low would break the range floor
Recovery above EMA(20) and the weekly open at 0.7027 puts the 0.7039 range top back in focus
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wednesday, then the FOMC decision, could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence during NY hours today are the nearer-term USD risk
0.6994–0.7039 range; double top at 0.7039, higher lows from 0.6994.
AUDUSD has rotated inside a 0.6994–0.7039 range since Wednesday. Monday's Asia and London pushes both stalled at the 0.7039 one-month high near the 100-day SMA zone, leaving a double top. Broad USD strength into the FOMC then drove a slide around the NY open back below the 0.7027 weekly open. Price now sits just under EMA(20) at 0.7021, with RSI(14) near 43, while holding the 61.8% retrace of the Friday–Monday upleg and the 0.7009 Asian low on a line of rising lows.
Support: 0.7009, 0.7000, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.7027, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7027 weekly open and the lower highs line reopens a test of the 0.7039 double top
Failure to hold the 0.7009 Asian low and the 0.7000 round number exposes the 0.6994 week low and the rising lows line
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) during NY hours today could test the range edges
Bullock at 00:15 UTC and AU CPI at 00:30 UTC Wednesday, then the FOMC at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read