AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:05 UTC
Uptrend, range break in progress · RSI 68 · price 0.70629
Higher lows since 0.6894; 0.7005-0.7040 range broken on last bar.
The rally from the 0.6894 mid-month low has printed a steady run of higher lows. Price spent more than a week coiling between the 0.7009 range floor and the 0.7040 range top, with ATR(14) compressing to about 17 pips, before the last bar closed at the 0.7063 window high. The break came as the USD eased after Warsh's post-hold presser, on top of the hot AU CPI beat. EMA20 sits above EMA50, and the 38.2% retracement of the rally fib lies near 0.6998, just above the 0.6994 swing low.
Support: 0.7040, 0.7009, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.70629, 0.7070, 0.7100
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.7040 range top would mark a false break and return price to the range
Loss of the 0.7009 range floor breaks the higher-lows trendline and the sequence since mid-month
The 0.7070 resist zone sits just above the window high; a close through it leaves the 0.7100 big figure as the next reference
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AU PPI Thu 00:30 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 3 Nov 03:30 UTC (hike ~78% priced) are the AUD-side risks
A slip back to the 0.6994 swing low would test the 38.2% level of the rally fib
Higher lows above 0.6994; compressing under 0.7040-0.7054.
A double bottom at 0.6903/0.6894 gave way to a rally through the 0.7012 neckline. Since then AUD/USD has printed higher lows at 0.6994, 0.7009 and the 0.7023 minor low while stalling at the 0.7040 range top. The hot Australian CPI beat spiked price to the 0.7054 swing high, but the bar faded straight back into the band. ATR(14) has compressed to about 16 pips from roughly 30 during the impulse, with price holding above both EMAs and a rising trendline, and the 0.6994 swing low sitting on the fib 38.2 of the 0.6894-0.7054 move.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7009, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7054
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser later today could materially shift this read; AU PPI (Oct 30) and the RBA decision (Nov 3) follow
H4 close above the 0.7054 swing high resolves the compression higher out of the range top
Loss of the 0.7023 minor low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.7009 swing low
H4 close below 0.6994 (swing low / fib 38.2) breaks the higher-low sequence
13:04 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 0.7040 · RSI 54 · price 0.70351
Higher lows from 0.6894 compressing under a flat 0.7040 cap.
The rally from the Oct low at 0.6894 has stalled into a week-long consolidation, with higher lows at 0.6994, 0.7004, 0.7009 and 0.7023 pressing against a range top near 0.7040 that has capped repeated tests. The hot Australian CPI print spiked price to a new swing high at 0.7054, but it was rejected straight back under 0.7040 as a firm USD into the FOMC limited the follow-through. ATR(14) has compressed to about 16 pips from the 25-30 pip readings earlier in the month, and price holds above both EMAs with EMA20 above EMA50, so the pair is coiling rather than trending.
Support: 0.7009, 0.6994, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7054
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7054 swing high would mark a range-top breakout from the compression
H4 close below the 0.7009 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.6994
Loss of 0.6994 shifts focus back toward the oct low at 0.6894
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC today could break the compression either way
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (hike ~78% priced); a hold would be a material shift for this read
09:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling in a range · RSI 54 · price 0.70323
Higher lows since 0.6894, compressing in a 0.7009-0.7040 range.
Higher lows from the 0.6894 swing low through 0.6994 and 0.7009 keep the uptrend intact. Price has compressed into a 0.7009-0.7040 range for over a week, and ATR(14) has contracted to ~15 pips from 25-30 earlier in the window. The hot Australian September CPI (4.3% vs 4.2%) drove a spike to the 0.7054 cpi high that faded back under the range top, a false break as a firm USD into FOMC capped follow-through. EMA20 holds above EMA50 with price above both.
Support: 0.7009, 0.6994, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7054
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7054 cpi high would resolve the range compression higher
Loss of the 0.7009 range floor and the rising trendline (~0.7022) exposes the 0.6994 higher low at the 38.2% fib
Repeated rejection at the 0.7040 range top keeps the consolidation read in place
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RBA decision Nov 3 at 03:30 UTC is the next AUD-side risk
Higher lows since 0.6894, compressing in a 0.7010-0.7040 range.
Higher-low structure has held since the mid-month 0.6894 low, with the swing low at 0.6994 and the range low at 0.7010 marking successively higher pullbacks. Price has spent the past week compressing between 0.7010 and the 0.7040 range top. The hot Sep CPI print pushed a spike to the 0.7054 cpi high that faded back inside the range, and ATR(14) near 16 pips is well below the mid-month expansion. EMA20 sits above EMA50 with price above both, and the 50% fib of the 0.6894-0.7054 leg lies at 0.6974.
Support: 0.7010, 0.6994, 0.6974
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7054
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7054 cpi high would end the range and extend the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7010 range low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.6994 swing low
A drop through 0.6994 opens the 50% fib at 0.6974 and puts the uptrend read in question
FOMC decision and press conference today (18:00/18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
RBA decision Nov 3 at 03:30 UTC is the next major AUD risk for the range
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into compression · RSI 52 · price 0.70295
Higher lows under a flat 0.7040 range top.
Higher-low structure since the 0.6894 oct low carried AUDUSD back above 0.7000. Price has spent about a week capped at a flat 0.7040 range top while lows rise from the 0.6994 swing low to the 0.7009 higher low, an ascending-triangle shape. EMA20 holds above EMA50, and ATR(14) near 13 pips has compressed from the mid-window expansion. The hot September CPI print firmed RBA hike bets and kept AUD supported, while a firm USD into FOMC kept supply capping the range top.
Support: 0.7009, 0.6994, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7080
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh press conference today could break the compression in either direction
H4 close above the 0.7040 range top opens the path toward the 0.7080 next cap
Failure to hold the 0.7009 higher low breaks the rising-lows line
Close below the 0.6994 swing low exposes the 0.382 fib of the oct low rally near 0.6984