21:06 UTC
Transitioning, rebound after Sep–Oct decline · RSI 50 · price 0.70294
LH/LL leg from Sep 9 high, double bottom near 0.6900, neckline reclaimed.
The Jul–Sep uptrend topped at 0.7237 on Sep 9 and gave way to a Sep–Oct decline of lower highs and lower lows. That leg found a floor near 0.6900 on Oct 1 and Oct 15, and the double low turned into a double bottom once price reclaimed the 0.7013 neckline on Oct 19. Hot AU CPI and a softer USD after the Fed hold have kept price near the 38.2% retracement and just above a flattening EMA(50), but six sessions have been capped at the 0.7040 recent high, with the 50% fib at 0.7066 overlapping the 0.7050–0.7080 moving-average cluster above.
Support: 0.7013, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7066, 0.7140
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.7040 recent high opens the 50% fib at 0.7066; clearing that leaves the 0.7140 lower high from mid-September as the next pivot
- Daily close back below the 0.7013 neckline undermines the double bottom read and reopens the 0.6894 double low
- US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 29 Oct 12:30 UTC, then the RBA decision Tue 3 Nov 03:30 UTC (hike ~78% priced), could materially shift this read