21:05 UTC
Recovering from Sep-Oct correction, testing mid-range · RSI 61 · price 0.70554
Double bottom near 0.6900, rebound into 50% retracement.
The July-to-September uptrend topped at the 0.7237 sept high. A roughly 340-pip correction followed into a double bottom at 0.6903/0.6894, with the oct low printing mid-month. Since then, price has carved higher lows along the Oct recovery line and cleared the 0.7015 neckline and the round number at 0.7000. It is back above a flattening EMA(50) near 0.7032. This week's hot AU CPI lifted RBA November hike odds and carried the pair into 0.7055-0.7065, the 50% retracement of the Sep-Oct decline, just under the 0.7068 monthly high. A firm US GDP beat keeps that cap in place.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7000, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7068, 0.7106, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.7068 monthly high opens the fib 61.8 at 0.7106; failure there keeps the rebound a 50% retracement inside the larger correction
- RBA decision on 3 Nov (hike ~82% priced): a hold would challenge the Oct recovery line and the ema50 near 0.7032
- US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC and Fed speakers could firm December hike pricing and test the round number at 0.7000
- Close back below 0.7000 undermines the double bottom breakout; a break of the oct low at 0.6894 resumes the lower-low sequence
- Recovery through 0.7106 puts the sept high at 0.7237 back in view on a multi-week basis