22:48 UTC
Sep downtrend paused, Oct rebound stalling · RSI 56 · price 0.70331
Double bottom off 0.6894, capped at 50% retrace.
The summer uptrend topped at the 0.7237 Sep high and gave way to a 340-pip decline into a double bottom at 0.6903/0.6894 (Sep 30 and Oct 14). The 0.7015 neckline broke on Oct 19 and the hot Australian CPI print carried price to a 0.7068 monthly high, right at the 50% fib of the Sep–Oct drop, where it was rejected as strong US data erased most of the gain. Price is now sitting just above the flattening EMA20 and EMA50 cluster near 0.7020–0.7025, with daily ranges of about 45 pips.
Support: 0.7015, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7068, 0.7140, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- RBA decision Tue Nov 3: a hike with further-tightening guidance could squeeze the crowded short positioning, while a hold could materially break the read lower
- Daily close back below the 0.7015 neckline and EMA cluster undoes the double bottom breakout
- Close above the 0.7068 50% fib opens the Sep 21 lower high near 0.7140; the Sep high at 0.7237 is the next marker beyond that
- Failure at the 0.6894 double btm low resumes the Sep downtrend sequence
- US ISM Mon and the midterm elections Tue add USD-side event risk