AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 30 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:48 UTC
Sideways after a failed midweek rally · RSI 51 · price 0.70321
Lower highs compressing into a flat 0.7014 base.
Wednesday's hot Australian CPI and the post-FOMC push carried AUDUSD to the 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Strong US GDP data then unwound the whole leg into NY, down to 0.7014. Since then price has compressed between that double low and the 0.7043 Friday high under a line of lower highs; the base held again in Friday's NY session, and price now sits on EMA(20), just below the 38.2% level of the week-decline fib, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 0.70314, 0.70135, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 friday high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 61.8% week-decline fib near 0.7047
Failure to hold the 0.7014 double low, then the 0.7009 week low, confirms a lower low
Holding EMA20 near 0.7031 keeps the compression intact; repeated closes below it shift focus back to the base
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (hike ~80% priced) and Monday's US ISM Manufacturing could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Range after failed rally, flat momentum · RSI 53 · price 0.70337
0.7014–0.7043 range below lower highs, twin lows holding.
The week has round-tripped. Wednesday's hot Australian CPI and the post-Fed follow-through lifted price to a week high at 0.7068 in Thursday's Asian session, met rejection there, and then strong US GDP drove a NY-session slide to 0.7014. Friday's NY dip after the Chicago PMI briefly undercut that low at 0.70135 and was reclaimed, which leaves twin lows near the week open and price at the 38.2% retracement around 0.7034, just above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 53. Lower highs at 0.7041–0.7043 have capped the last three bounces, so the Thursday–Friday structure reads as a 0.7014–0.7043 range.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7020, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7043, 0.7054, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 lower highs breaks the range top and brings the 0.7054 cpi high and 0.7068 week high back into view
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.7032 returns price to the 0.7020 swing low
A break below the 0.7014 twin lows would confirm a range break lower
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (~80% of a hike priced) could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is the first USD test of the new week
19:05 UTC
Range after full reversal from week high · RSI 48 · price 0.70292
Lower highs capped near 0.7043 above a 0.7014 floor.
Wednesday's Asia-session lift on the hot Australian CPI print, and the post-FOMC push to the 0.7068 week high, fully unwound into Thursday's NY session after the US GDP beat. The slide stalled at the 0.7014 swing low. Since then the pair has ranged 0.7014–0.7043, with lower highs capped near the 50% retracement of the decline. Friday's NY dip to 0.70135 reversed straight back, a false break that left the friday lows near 0.7020 intact. Price sits just under ema20 (0.7031) with RSI(14) near 48, and momentum is flat into the weekend.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70135, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7031, 0.7043
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.7043 lower highs line breaks the compression and reopens the 0.7068 week high
A sustained break of the 0.7014 swing low turns Friday's false break into a lower low and exposes the 0.7009 monday low, the base of this week's rally
Holding back above ema20 at 0.7031 would mark the first shift in the lower-high sequence since Thursday
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and the RBA decision (Tue 03:30 UTC, ~80% hike priced) could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Range after failed upside extension · RSI 44 · price 0.70289
Lower highs off 0.7068 above flat 0.7014 floor.
Wednesday's hot AUD CPI and the FOMC session pushed price to the 0.7068 week high early Thursday, but the move reversed after strong US GDP. Price has since retraced past the 61.8% fib of the week's advance and held a 0.7014–0.7043 range. NY-session dips twice found demand at the 0.7014 double low, while rallies keep printing lower highs beneath the 0.7043 range top, leaving price just under EMA(20) at 0.7031 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.7014, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7031, 0.7043, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7014 double low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.7009 Monday low
H1 close above the 0.7043 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.7068 week high
Repeated H1 closes back above EMA(20) at 0.7031 would shift the range read toward the upper half
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and the RBA decision (Tue 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Sideways after reversal from week high · RSI 48 · price 0.70344
0.7014–0.7043 range below the 0.7068 week high; flat lows at 0.7014.
AUD/USD has given back the hot-CPI and post-FOMC run to the 0.7068 week high, with Thursday's US GDP beat dragging price to 0.7014 in the NY session. A 0.7014–0.7043 range has held since then. Friday's NY-session dip through 0.7014 reversed within the hour after the Chicago PMI miss, a false break that leaves a double low and puts price back above EMA(20) near 0.7031. RSI(14) sits near 48 with price parked at the 38.2% retrace of the week-high drop, while the 50% level near 0.7040 lines up with the range top.
Support: 0.7031, 0.7014, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7043, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 range top clears the 50% retrace and opens the path back toward the 0.7068 week high
Failure to hold the 0.7014 double low, then the 0.7009 week low, confirms a lower-low below the range
Sustained closes back under EMA(20) near 0.7031 return price to the lower half of the range
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (hike ~80% priced) and Monday's US ISM could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Range after the post-FOMC spike reversed · RSI 49 · price 0.70337
0.7014–0.7043 range, lower highs through Friday.
The hot AUD CPI and the FOMC aftermath lifted AUDUSD to a week high at 0.7068 early Thursday, but the strong US GDP print reversed the whole leg into NY hours, down to 0.7014. Since then H1 has ranged between that double low and the 0.7043 Friday high. Friday's NY dip to 0.70135 briefly undercut Thursday's low and was reclaimed after the Chicago PMI miss. Price now sits pinned between EMA(20) near 0.7030 and EMA(50) near 0.7034, at the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's drop, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7014, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7034, 0.7043, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 Friday high breaks the Friday lower-highs line and the 50% fib of Thursday's drop, putting 0.7068 week high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.7014 double low turns Friday's false break into a range break toward the 0.7009 Monday low
Acceptance back below EMA(20) at 0.7030 keeps EMA(50) at 0.7034 capping the range midpoint
Fed's Daly (16:00Z) and Musalem (16:30Z) today, then ISM Monday and the RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Range after reversal from week high · RSI 52 · price 0.70337
Lower highs pressing on a flat 0.7014 base.
AUDUSD has unwound the CPI/FOMC rally since the 0.70675 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Strong US GDP drove a London-NY slide, and Friday has held a 0.7014–0.7042 range under a line of lower highs. A NY-session dip to 0.70135 briefly undercut the double low from Thursday after the Chicago PMI miss, then reversed to 0.7034, leaving price at the 38.2% retracement and just above EMA(20) at 0.7031, with EMA(50) flat alongside and RSI(14) at 52. The 0.7054 CPI high sits above the range top as the next reference.
Support: 0.70311, 0.70135, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7042, 0.7054, 0.70675
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7042 range top and the lower-highs line would open the 0.7054 cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.7014 double low after this week's false break would expose the 0.7009 monday low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) today could shift USD tone into the weekly close
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and US midterms the same day are the main risk to this range read; a reclaim of the 0.70675 week high would need a broad USD selloff
Lower highs off 0.70675, lows holding 0.7014-0.7020.
The post-Fed push peaked at the 0.70675 week high in Thursday's Asian session. That move unwound by 53 pips once the US GDP beat revived the USD, with the 0.70141 thu low marking the NY session trough. Friday's Asia bounce on firm PPI stalled at the 0.70427 fri high near the 50% fib of that drop, and ema20 at 0.7030 has since capped price, leaving lower highs against slightly rising lows. Price is back at the 0.7019-0.7020 fri low after the ECI print, with RSI(14) at 42 and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70141, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70295, 0.70427, 0.70675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7020 fri low and the rising lows line puts the 0.70141 thu low in play, with the 0.7009 early-wk low beneath
Reclaim of ema20 near 0.7030 plus a break of the 0.70427 fri high and the lower highs line invalidates the descending read; 0.70675 week high sits above
Chicago PMI now and Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift USD tone into the weekly close
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (hike ~80% priced) and the US midterms are the week-ahead binaries for this structure
Lower highs and higher lows since Thursday's low, compressing below EMA(20).
AUD/USD climbed from Monday's 0.7009 week low to the 0.7067 week high in Thursday's Asia session on the hot Australian CPI and the post-FOMC USD dip. It then reversed when strong US GDP and claims lifted the dollar, bottoming at the 0.7014 Thursday low into the NY session. Since then H1 has compressed into a pennant, with lower highs capped at the 0.7042 Friday high below the 50% retracement of the Thursday decline and higher lows at 0.7017 and the 0.7020 Friday low. Price sits just under EMA20 near 0.7030 with RSI(14) flat near 47, and the ECI print brought little follow-through.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70141, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7030, 0.70427, 0.70675
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7042 friday high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 0.7067 week high
Failure to hold the 0.7020 friday low and the higher lows line exposes the 0.7014 thursday low, then the 0.7009 week low
Repeated H1 closes back above EMA20 near 0.7030 would neutralise the post-Thursday pullback read
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC), Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could resolve the pennant during NY hours
RBA decision Tue 3 Nov 03:30 UTC (~80% priced hike), alongside US midterms, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 0.7068 week high, higher lows off 0.7014; range 0.7014–0.7043.
The hot Australian CPI and the post-FOMC USD fade carried the pair from the 0.7009 week low to the 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. That level marked the rejection. Firm US GDP and jobless claims then revived the USD, and Thursday's NY session retraced about 90% of the 0.7009–0.7068 impulse to the 0.7014 thu low. Since then price has compressed in a 0.7014–0.7043 range, with lower highs capped near the range top and a higher low at the 0.7020 friday low from London open. It now sits just under the ema20 at 0.7031, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.7020, 0.7014, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7031, 0.7043, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 range top breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 0.7068 week high
Failure to hold the 0.7020 friday low and 0.7014 thu low exposes the 0.7009 week low and a full retrace of the impulse
Repeated closes under the ema20 at 0.7031 keep the higher-lows line under pressure
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%), then Chicago PMI and Daly/Musalem remarks, could break the range
RBA decision Tue 3 Nov 03:30 UTC is the next major AUD event risk
Lower highs vs higher lows, compressing 0.7020–0.7043.
Hot Australian CPI in Wednesday's Asia session and the Fed hold in NY hours carried the pair from Monday's 0.7009 low to the 0.7068 week high early Thursday. Strong US GDP and claims then drove a near-full unwind into Thursday's NY session, bottoming at the 0.7014 thursday low. Since then the pair has compressed into a tighter coil: the London open dip held the 0.7020 friday low and price is back above the ema cluster near 0.7033, at the 38.2% retrace of the post-FOMC drop. The friday high at 0.7043 sits near the 50% level, and RSI(14) at 52 is neutral.
Support: 0.70335, 0.7020, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.7068 week high
Failure to hold the 0.7020 friday low and rising-lows line exposes the 0.7014 thursday low
Slip back below the ema cluster near 0.7033 returns price to the lower half of the coil
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC today could break the compression
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC sits beyond the weekend as a gap risk for this range
Contracting range 0.7014–0.7043 after reversal from week high.
The Monday–Wednesday rally from 0.7009, fuelled by hot AU CPI and the FOMC, peaked at the 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Strong US GDP then drove a retrace to the Thursday low at 0.7014 during NY hours. Since then price has compressed between higher lows and lower highs: the PPI bounce met rejection at the 0.7043 Asia high, and the London open dip held at the 0.7020 London low. Price sits just below EMA(20) near 0.7032, at roughly the 61.8% retracement of the weekly rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.7020, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7043
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.7068 week high
Failure to hold the 0.7020 london low and the 0.7014 thu low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 0.7009 rally origin
Sustained H1 closes back above the ema20 near 0.7032 would mark a shift out of the post-GDP drift
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, Chicago PMI and Daly/Musalem later today could materially shift this read
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC is the main event risk for the weekly structure
09:04 UTC
Range-bound after a failed rally, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 0.70316
Week's impulse retraced to 61.8%; compressing 0.7014–0.7043 on rising lows.
Hot AU CPI and the Fed hold carried price to a 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. That rally was rejected and fully unwound through London and NY after strong US GDP, bottoming at the 0.7014 Thu low near the 61.8% retracement of the week impulse. Since then price has compressed between that low and a 0.7043 range top on rising lows, with Friday's Asia lift on firm PPI stalling and London fading it to 0.7020; price now sits flat on EMA(20), just under the ema50 at 0.7034, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70141, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70336, 0.70427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.7068 week high
Failure to hold the 0.7020 London low and the 0.7014 Thu low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 0.7009 week low
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema50 at 0.7034 would mark a shift from the post-rejection drift
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read during NY hours
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC is the larger event risk for the range
08:03 UTC
Rally unwound, lower highs from week high · RSI 42 · price 0.70224
Post-Fed false break reversed; compressing between rising lows and lower highs.
AUDUSD has given back most of the week rally from the 0.7009 week low to the 0.7068 week high, which was set on hot AU CPI and the post-Fed spike. Strong US GDP and PCE drove a NY-session drop to the 0.7014 Thursday low, near the 78.6% retracement. Since then, rising lows have met lower highs capped near 0.7043. Firm AU PPI and credit data lifted the pair only briefly in Asia today, and it slipped back to the 0.7020 Friday low into London open, below the ema20 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70141, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7030, 0.70427
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7020 friday low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.7014 thu low and 0.7009 week low
Reclaiming the 0.7030 ema20 and a close above the 0.7043 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, then Fed's Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
Tuesday's RBA decision (about 80% hike priced) keeps the 0.7068 week high in play as the upper reference
Rising lows under a 0.7043 cap inside the 0.7009–0.7068 week range.
Hot AU CPI and Wednesday's Fed decision lifted AUD/USD out of its early-week 0.7010–0.7040 range to a 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Strong US GDP then drove a full fade into NY hours to a 0.7014 Thursday low. Since then rising lows have formed under a 0.7041–43 cap, with Friday's Asia high rejected near the 50% retrace of the Thursday decline, and price now sits just below EMA(20) at 0.7033 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.70243, 0.70141, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70332, 0.70427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence from the 0.7068 week high
Holding below ema20 at 0.7033 keeps the rejection at the Thursday decline fib midpoint in place
Loss of the 0.7024 asia low and the rising-low trendline exposes the 0.7014 thu low and 0.7009 week low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC is the next major test of the 0.7009–0.7068 week range
Lower highs from 0.7068 week high inside 0.7009–0.7068 week range.
Wednesday's hot AU CPI and the Fed hold carried AUD/USD to a 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Strong US GDP then dragged it to 0.7014 during NY hours, the Thursday low, folding the move back into the 0.7009–0.7068 week range. Friday's Asian rebound on firm PPI met rejection at 0.7043, the Friday high, near the 50% retracement of Thursday's decline. Price has slipped back under the ema20 at 0.7033, with EMA(50) just above at 0.7034, and RSI(14) sits mid-range near 46.
Support: 0.7017, 0.7014, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7043, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.7033 and the 0.7043 fri high would break the lower-high sequence
Close above the lower-highs trendline from the 0.7068 week high (near 0.7041) invalidates the fade read
Failure to hold the 0.7017 higher low exposes the 0.7014 thu low and the 0.7009 week low
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC today, then Daly/Musalem in the NY session, could materially shift this read
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC sits beyond this window but frames the 0.7009–0.7068 range edges
0.7009–0.7068 weekly range; higher low at 0.7017, price mid-range.
The hot AU CPI print and Wednesday's Fed hold carried the pair to a week high of 0.70675 early Thursday, but strong US GDP and claims drove a full unwind in Thursday's NY session to 0.7014. Friday's Asia session has rebuilt from a higher low at 0.7017 on firm PPI and credit data, lifting price back above the H1 EMA(20) near 0.7033. RSI(14) is near 53, and the move is now pressing the 0.7041–0.7043 swing high, just under the 50% retracement of Thursday's sell-off.
Support: 0.7033, 0.7017, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7043, 0.7047, 0.70675
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7043 swing high exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.7047, then the 0.70675 week high
Loss of the 0.7017 higher low reopens Thursday's 0.7014 low and the 0.7009 week low
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.7033 would mark the Asia rebound as a lower high inside the range
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 0.8%), plus Daly and Musalem later, could reset USD direction
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (~80% hike priced) is the main weekly-range risk
AUDUSD held a 0.7009–0.7040 range Monday–Tuesday until Wednesday's hot CPI and the Fed hold carried it to a 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. That break failed when strong US GDP drove a London-into-NY slide to 0.7014. Friday's Asia session printed a higher low at 0.7017 on the PPI and private credit beats, lifting price back above the EMA cluster at 0.7034 (RSI(14) near 58) and into the 0.7042 Asia high, which sits at the 50% retracement of Thursday's sell-off.
Support: 0.7034, 0.70172, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70424, 0.7056
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7042 Asia high and 50% fib opens the 0.7056 breakdown level where Thursday's slide began, then the 0.7068 week high
Loss of the 0.7034 EMA cluster and the 0.7017 higher low returns focus to the 0.7009 week low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC is the dominant event risk for the week's range
03:04 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from Thursday's drop · RSI 53 · price 0.70375
Higher lows forming under a 0.7041 lower high, mid-range of the 0.7009–0.7068 week.
Wednesday's hot Australian CPI produced a cpi spike to 0.7054 in the Asia session, and the post-Fed push set the week high at 0.7068 early Thursday. That move was fully unwound to 0.7014 during NY hours as US GDP and claims beat. A higher low at 0.7017 and firm local PPI and credit data in today's Asia session have since lifted price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 0.7033, with RSI(14) neutral around 53 and price sitting between the 38.2% and 50% fib of Thursday's drop, just under the 0.7041 lower high.
Support: 0.70327, 0.70172, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.70414, 0.70539
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7041 lower high (50% fib) brings the 0.7054 cpi spike back into play
Failure at the 0.7017 higher low and the rising support line exposes the 0.7009 week low
Sustained trade back below ema20 near 0.7033 returns price to the lower half of the week range
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem later today could materially shift this read
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC is the dominant event risk for the week high and week low
Contracting range: lower highs from 0.7068, higher lows from 0.7014.
Wednesday's hot Australian CPI and the FOMC hold lifted AUDUSD to a 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Strong US GDP and claims during NY hours then unwound the whole leg to a 0.7014 Thursday low. The rebound stalled with a rejection at the 50% fib near 0.7041, and price is now compressing between higher lows and lower highs. A slightly hot PPI print in Asia lifted it back just above a flattening EMA(20) at 0.7032, with RSI(14) at 53 sitting mid-range.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7014, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7047, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.7041 (50% fib, lower-highs line) reopens the 61.8% fib at 0.7047 and the 0.7068 week high
Failure to hold the higher lows and the 0.7014 Thursday low exposes the 0.7009 week low from Monday's base
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) at 0.7032 would shift the compression toward its lower edge
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC today, then Fed's Daly/Musalem, could break the contraction
RBA decision Tue 3 Nov 03:30 UTC is the larger event risk for this range
01:04 UTC
Downtrend from week high, back inside early-week range · RSI 42 · price 0.70239
Failed breakout above the Mon–Tue range; lower high at 0.7041 below the 0.7068 week high.
Wednesday's Asia-session CPI beat, then the Fed hold with two hike dissents, lifted AUDUSD out of its 0.7009–0.7040 Monday–Tuesday range to a 0.7068 week high early Thursday. Thursday's decline started in London and finished in NY on the US GDP beat, unwinding the whole move to a 0.7014 GDP low. The bounce stalled at 0.7041, the 50% retrace of that drop, leaving a lower high, and price now sits below the 0.7028 week open and EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.70141, 0.7009, 0.6995
Resistance: 0.70278, 0.70414
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.7014 GDP low and 0.7009 week low breaks the early-week range floor, with the 0.6995 pivot next
Recovery above the 0.7041 lower high and 50% retrace would challenge the lower-highs line from the 0.7068 week high
A reclaim of the 0.7028 week open and EMA(20) would neutralise the post-GDP downside read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read; the RBA decision on Tue Nov 3 is the larger event risk
Lower highs since week high, inside Mon–Wed range.
The hot Australian CPI spike in Wednesday's Asia session and the FOMC hold in NY hours lifted the pair out of the Mon–Wed 0.7009–0.7040 range to a week high at 0.7068 early Thursday. That breakout failed. The US GDP beat drove a full unwind into the NY session, down to a Thursday low at 0.7014. The rebound was rejected at 0.7041, the 50% fib of that drop, and it left a lower high. Price now sits just under the week open and EMA(20) near 0.7030, back inside the original range, with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 0.7014, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7030, 0.7041, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7014 thu low exposes the 0.7009 week low and the range floor
Reclaiming the week open and EMA(20) at 0.7030 and then the 0.7041 lower high would negate the lower-high sequence and reopen the 0.7068 week high
Australian PPI at 00:30 UTC and US ECI at 12:30 UTC today could break the current compression
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 is the larger risk to the range read