Late NY session: the day low at 0.70135 swept below the London low and Asian lows around the 12:30 UTC ECI print, then reversed sharply on RBA hike bets and a softer USD. Since then price has held a tight 0.7027–0.7037 range under the NY high, with higher lows into the late-ny low at 0.70266. Price is hugging ema20, RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) about 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70371 NY high breaks the range and brings the 0.70403 London high and 0.70427 Asian high into view
Failure to hold the 0.70266 late-ny low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.70200 London low, then the 0.70135 day low
Weekend gap risk into Monday's Asia open, with RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC as the main event risk
20:47 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat into weekly close · RSI 46 · price 0.70308
Range 0.7027–0.7037 after NY sweep of Asian low.
Early NY broke below the Asian and london low at 0.7020 and printed the day low at 0.70135, then reclaimed the move within two bars. Since then price has held a tight 0.7027–0.7037 range, with the range low and range high both tested again late in the session. Price sits flat on the EMAs with RSI(14) near 46, only about a quarter of the way into the NY rebound fib. AUD is treading water ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision while USD stays heavy, which leaves little intraday follow-through into the Friday close.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70266 range low exposes the 50% of the NY rebound fib near 0.7025 and the london low at 0.7020
Close above the 0.70371 range high reopens the 0.70427 asia high
Loss of the 0.70135 day low would negate the sweep-and-reclaim read
Weekly close now; RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and US ISM Mon 15:00 UTC are the next catalysts, with weekend gap risk at the reopen
20:33 UTC
Sideways, lower highs · RSI 54 · price 0.70335
0.7014–0.7043 session range with lower highs and late-NY compression.
The Asia high at 0.7043 led to lower highs at 0.7040 in London and 0.7037 in NY. The NY dip to the 0.7014 day low swept the Asian and London lows, then rebounded sharply on firm AU PPI and credit data and a softer USD after the Chicago PMI miss. Late-NY trade is compressing between the 0.7027 swing low and 0.7037 into the weekly close, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.7037 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.7040 London high and 0.7043 Asia high into view
Loss of the 0.7027 swing low, near the 50% of the NY rebound, reopens the 0.7020 London low and the 0.7014 day low
Weekend gap risk into Tuesday's RBA decision (03:30 UTC) and Monday's US ISM could reset this range
20:17 UTC
Two-way intraday range, mild upturn late NY · RSI 59 · price 0.70349
Wide 0.7014–0.7043 day range, NY sub-range 0.7027–0.7037.
Early NY broke under the Asian low and the london low to a 0.70135 day low, then reversed sharply after the soft Chicago PMI. The pair has since held a 0.7027–0.7037 range, with the late ny low at 0.70266 on the rising trendline and the ny high at 0.70371 capping. Price sits at 0.7035 into the Friday close, still below the 0.70427 asia high, RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70371 ny high exposes the 0.70427 asia high
A break of the 0.70266 late ny low and the rising trendline puts the 0.7020 london low back in play; 0.70135 day low below
Thin late-Friday trade and weekend gap risk ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision could reset this read at the open
20:02 UTC
Sideways after NY spike-low reversal · RSI 52 · price 0.70338
24h range 0.7013–0.7043; late-NY sub-range 0.7027–0.7037, price mid-range.
The Chicago PMI miss knocked USD and set up a false break of the London low at 0.7020. The session low at 0.70135 was reversed within two bars back into a 0.7027–0.7037 NY range. Late NY is holding above the NY low at 0.70266, near the 38–50% fib of the rebound, RSI(14) neutral near 52, with the Asian high at 0.70427 still capping the day.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the NY high at 0.70371 opens the London high at 0.70403 and the Asian high at 0.70427
Failure to hold the NY low at 0.70266 brings the 50% fib (0.70253) and the London low at 0.7020 back into view
A return below the session low at 0.70135 invalidates the false-break read
Friday close into the weekend: Monday-open gap risk ahead of the RBA decision (Tue 03:30 UTC) and the US midterms
19:48 UTC
Flat intraday, lower highs since NY rebound · RSI 46 · price 0.70279
Post-sweep range 0.7027–0.7037, pressing range floor late NY.
The NY session swept below the London low and the Asian range to a 0.7014 NY low, then reversed sharply. The bounce fits the digest's yield-driven USD softness after the Chicago PMI miss. Since then price has held a 0.7027–0.7037 range with lower highs into late NY and now sits on the range floor near the 38.2% retrace, RSI(14) 46, just under EMA20/50.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 range floor opens a test of the London low at 0.7020
Failure to hold 0.7020 puts the NY low at 0.7014 back in play
Close above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; range top 0.7037 and Asia high 0.7043 sit above
Weekly close in about 1h; weekend positioning ahead of RBA Tuesday and the US midterms could gap the reopen
Tight late-NY range 0.7027–0.7032 with lower highs after the NY sweep and reversal.
NY took out the london low at 0.7020 to a sweep low of 0.70135, then reversed sharply as USD sagged after the Chicago PMI miss, peaking at the ny high of 0.70371. Late NY is now compressing between the range floor at 0.7027 and range top at 0.7032, holding the 38.2% retrace with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.70269, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 range floor exposes the 0.7020 london low
Close above the 0.7032 range top reopens the 0.70371 ny high, with the 0.70427 asian high beyond
Break back under the 0.70135 sweep low would negate the reversal
Friday close into the weekend; RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC is the next major risk for this pair
19:03 UTC
Range-bound, momentum fading late NY · RSI 44 · price 0.7029
NY sweep low and reversal, now a tight 0.7028–0.7037 range.
NY hours swept below the london low (0.7020) and the Asian range low to a ny low of 0.70135, then reversed sharply to the ny high at 0.7037. Price has since faded into a 0.7028–0.7037 range late in NY, near the 38.2% of that swing, with USD held up by caution ahead of the US midterms and the asian high at 0.7043 untouched since early in the session.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 range floor exposes the 0.7020 london low and the 50% of the NY swing
Reclaim of the 0.7037 ny high reopens the 0.7040–0.7043 asian high zone
A break below the 0.70135 ny low would negate the sweep-and-reversal read
Friday close nears with thin liquidity; RBA Tue Nov 3 and US midterms carry weekend gap risk
18:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 47 · price 0.70294
24h range 0.70135–0.70427, NY low swept then reclaimed.
Highs keep stepping lower: the asian high at 0.70427, the london high at 0.70403 and the NY rebound high at 0.70371. NY broke below the london low at 0.7020 to a 0.70135 ny low, then reversed sharply as USD softened after the Chicago PMI miss. After London close price has retraced about a third of that NY rebound to 0.7029, sitting just under flat EMAs and holding the late-ny low at 0.70280 as ATR compresses to about 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.70280 late-ny low exposes the 50% NY rebound fib near 0.7025 and the london low at 0.7020
A close above the 0.70371 rebound high breaks the lower-highs line and opens 0.70403 london high and 0.70427 asian high
Thin late-Friday trade into the weekly close leaves weekend gap risk; ISM Mon 15:00 UTC and RBA Tue 03:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
0.7014–0.7043 range; NY low swept the London low, then the rebound stalled at 0.7037.
Late NY session, after the London close. AUDUSD is drifting near 0.7030 inside the day's 0.7014–0.7043 range, below the asian high at 0.7043. The NY low at 0.70135 swept under the London low at 0.7020 and reversed sharply as USD softened after the Chicago PMI miss. That rebound stalled at the 0.7037 NY high and has given back about 30% on the NY rebound fib, with the late NY low at 0.7028 the nearest support and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.70282, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 late NY low opens a retest of the 0.7020 London low
Loss of the 0.70135 NY low would invalidate the sweep-and-reverse read
M15 close above the 0.7037 NY high brings the 0.7043 asian high back into play
Thin liquidity into the weekly close, and the RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
24h range 0.7014–0.7043; NY false break below London low reversed, now retracing.
Early NY broke below the London low at 0.7020 to a ny low of 0.70135, then reversed hard as USD softened after the Chicago PMI miss. The rebound stalled at the ny high of 0.70371 under the Asian high, and late NY is back testing the 0.7028 pullback low near the 38.2% fib.
Support: 0.70282, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 pullback low exposes the 50% fib at 0.7025 and the london low at 0.7020
Recovery through the ny high at 0.7037 reopens the asian high at 0.7043
Thin Friday close; Monday open carries gap risk ahead of ISM and Tuesday's RBA decision
17:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.70305
0.7014–0.7043 intraday range; NY sweep of the London low reclaimed, highs stepping down.
Late in the Friday NY session, price swept below the London low at 0.7020 to a NY low of 0.70135, then rebounded sharply to a NY high at 0.7037. That high sits under the London high at 0.7040 and the Asian high at 0.7043, which extends the lower-highs sequence. Price is now pulling back through the NY rebound and sitting on EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 53, while caution ahead of Tuesday's RBA keeps the range tight.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7040, 0.7043
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range top
Loss of the 0.7020 London low would expose the 0.70135 NY low again
Holding the 50% of the NY rebound near 0.7025 keeps the sweep-and-reclaim intact
Weekend gap risk into Tuesday's RBA decision and US midterms could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off NY low · RSI 59 · price 0.70333
Higher lows from 0.70135, compressing under 0.7037 NY high.
Late NY, after London close: the dip below the Asian range low to the 0.70135 day low reversed sharply after the Chicago PMI miss added to USD softness. Higher lows since then have compressed price into a 0.7031–0.7037 band under the NY high. Price is holding between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels of the London high to day low retrace.
Support: 0.70312, 0.70274, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 NY high breaks the compression; the 0.7040 London high and 0.7043 Asia high sit next above
Loss of the 0.7031 higher low turns focus to the 0.7027 NY pullback low, with the 0.70135 day low below that
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; the RBA decision on Tue 03:30 UTC and the US midterms are the next major risks for AUD
V-reversal from NY sweep low, higher lows under a flat 0.7037 NY high.
NY session swept under Thursday's 0.7017 low to a 0.7014 session low, then a sharp rebound erased the London fade from the 0.7040 London high as the USD softened after the Chicago PMI miss. After London close, price is compressing in a 0.7031–0.7037 band, with higher lows building beneath a flat NY high and ATR shrinking.
Support: 0.70312, 0.70275, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 NY high exposes the 0.7040 London high and the 0.7043 Asian high
Loss of the 0.7031 higher low, then the 0.7028 swing low, unwinds the rebound toward the 0.7014 session low
Liquidity is thin into the Friday close; the RBA decision on Tue Nov 3 at 03:30 UTC and the US midterms are gap risk for this read
Higher lows under a 0.7037 cap after the NY sweep of the Asian low.
Early NY hours swept below the Asian low to a 0.70135 day low, then snapped back as the Chicago PMI miss weighed on the USD. Late in the NY session price is compressing between the 0.7030 higher low and the 0.7037 NY high, still beneath the 0.7040 London high and the 0.7043 Asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR(14) is about 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70275, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 NY high exposes the 0.7040 London high and the 0.7043 Asian high
Loss of the 0.7030 higher low and the 0.70275 pullback low breaks the NY higher lows, with the 0.70135 day low below
Thin liquidity into the weekly close; the RBA decision on Tue Nov 3 at 03:30 UTC is the next major catalyst
16:47 UTC
Recovering off NY low, higher lows · RSI 54 · price 0.70336
Post-sweep consolidation 0.7028–0.7037 under lower highs.
NY session swept below the Asian and London lows to a 0.7014 NY low, then reversed sharply as the Chicago PMI miss softened the USD. Since then price has built higher lows inside a 0.7028–0.7037 consolidation. The 0.7037 NY high sits on the lower-highs line running from the 0.7043 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.70275, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7037 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 0.7043 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7028 swing low (38.2% fib of the NY rally) breaks the higher-low sequence; the 0.7020 London low would be next
Fed's Musalem remarks (16:30 UTC) and thinning late-Friday NY liquidity could shift this read
16:32 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off NY low · RSI 59 · price 0.70348
False break below London low, higher lows into NY high.
The Asian range topped at 0.70427 on firm AUD PPI and credit data, then London faded it to the 0.7020 London low. In NY, a sweep after the Chicago PMI miss broke that low only briefly, reaching 0.70135 before the false break reversed. Price has retraced roughly 79% of the London-NY drop, with higher lows from 0.70275 pressing the 0.70371 NY high, and RSI(14) is neutral near 59.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70371 NY high opens the 0.70403 London high and 0.70427 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7030 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 0.7020 London low back in play
Loss of the 0.70135 NY low would negate the false-break read
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 UTC and the weekly close could shift this read; RBA on Tuesday is the larger event risk
NY false break below London low reversed; testing lower-highs cap.
NY session swept the London low at 0.7020 to a session low of 0.70135, then reversed about 23 pips in an hour. The bounce came against a soft USD and lower yields. Price is now pressing 0.7036, the 78.6% retrace of the decline from the day high. A higher low at 0.7028 sits beneath, while the London high at 0.7040 and the lower-highs line cap the upside.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 day high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7028 higher low returns price to the 0.7020–0.7040 range
Break back below the 0.70135 session low negates the false-break read
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 UTC could shift USD tone into the weekly close
16:03 UTC
Two-way intraday range, rebounding off the NY low · RSI 56 · price 0.70338
V-reversal from 0.7014, higher lows pressing a 0.7037 cap.
In the first hour of NY, price took out the Asian and London lows to the 0.7014 ny low, then V-reversed as the dollar softened. That move retraced roughly 75% of the ny drop fib from the 0.7040 london high. Approaching London close, price is coiling under the 0.7037 ny high, with a higher low at 0.7028 and an ny pullback low at 0.7030 along the NY rally line. RSI(14) is mid-50s and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70275, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70366, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 ny high exposes the 0.7040 london high and the 0.7043 asian high, the top of the Asian range
Loss of the 0.7030 ny pullback and 0.7028 higher low breaks the NY rally line and reopens the 0.7014 ny low
Fed's Daly (16:00Z) and Musalem (16:30Z) could shift USD tone into the weekly close
15:46 UTC
Range, sharp NY reversal off session low · RSI 55 · price 0.70337
24h range 0.7014–0.7043; NY sweep of London low reversed, higher low at 0.70275.
NY session swept below the London low at 0.7020 to a 0.70135 NY low, then reversed sharply as USD softened after the Chicago PMI miss. The NY bounce has printed a higher low at 0.70275 but is capped so far at the 0.70362 NY high, mid-range between the London high at 0.70403 and the Asian high at 0.70427.
Support: 0.70275, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70362, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70362 NY high opens the London high at 0.70403 and the Asian high at 0.70427
Failure to hold the 0.70275 higher low returns focus to the London low at 0.7020 and the 0.70135 NY low
Fed's Daly at 16:00Z and Musalem at 16:30Z could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Range, sharp NY rebound off session low · RSI 57 · price 0.70341
False break below Asian/London lows, higher low at 0.70275, lower highs from London high.
NY session swept below the Asian low and london low to a session low at 0.70135, then reversed sharply as USD softness resurfaced after the Chicago PMI miss. The 0.70275 pullback low held near the 38.2% fib of the rebound. Price is now pressing the ny high at 0.70362 under the lower-highs line from the london high at 0.70403, with the asian high at 0.70427 capping the 24h range.
Support: 0.70275, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70362, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70362 ny high and the lower-highs line opens the london high 0.70403, then the asian high 0.70427
Failure back below the 0.70275 pullback low reopens the london low near 0.7020; a break of the 0.70135 session low would turn the sweep into a genuine break
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift USD around the London close
15:17 UTC
Range, sharp NY rebound off day low · RSI 55 · price 0.70345
False break below London low reclaimed; lower highs from Asian high.
NY session broke below the 0.7020 London low to a 0.70135 NY low, then reversed about 20 pips in two bars on broad USD softness. Price reclaimed EMA20 and the 61.8% fib at 0.7030 and now sits at the 78.6% retrace of the London high to NY low leg, still inside the 24h range. The 0.70362 bounce high and lower highs off the 0.70427 Asian high cap price. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70362, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70362 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline (~0.7039) brings the 0.70403 London high and 0.70427 Asian high back into view
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.7030 shifts focus back to the 0.7020 London low
A break below the 0.70135 NY low would turn the false break into a range break lower
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift the USD leg into London close
0.7014–0.7043 range; NY false break below Asian low reclaimed.
NY session broke below the 0.7017 Asian low after the Chicago PMI miss and printed a 0.70135 ny low. Price then reversed about 22 pips to 0.7034, reclaiming the ema20 and stalling just under the 0.70362 ny high. The day's range runs 0.7014–0.7043 with lower highs at the asian high (0.70427) and the london high (0.70403).
Support: 0.7029, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70362, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70403 london high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.70427 asian high
Rejection at the 0.70362 ny high and a slip back below the ema20 near 0.7029 shifts focus to the 0.7020 london low
Failure to hold 0.70135 ny low turns the false break into a range break lower
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift USD tone within the hour
Lower highs from 0.70403; false break below Asian low reclaimed.
NY session swept the Asian low at 0.70172 to a 0.70135 session low. A 12-pip bar then reclaimed 0.7030 as the USD stayed soft, retracing to the 61.8% of the London high–session low drop, while the lower-high sequence from the 0.70403 London high stays intact below 0.70342. Price is back above EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70172, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70342, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70342 lower high, near the 100-day SMA at 0.7032, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the London high at 0.70403 and the Asian high at 0.70427 in view
Failure back below the 0.70200 swing low and the 0.70172 Asian low re-exposes the 0.70135 session low
Fed's Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
Lower highs since the London high; false break below 0.7020 London low.
London and NY have printed lower highs from the 0.70403 London high down to 0.70267. The NY session then broke the 0.7020 London low and Asian range floor, reached a 0.70135 session low and snapped back above 0.7020 in a false break, with RSI(14) near 42. AUD stays heavy despite a soft USD as the RBA hike premium caps upside.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70267, 0.70342, 0.70403
What it said to watch
An M15 close back under the 0.7020 london low turns the false break into a fresh lower low and puts the 0.70135 session low back in focus
A close above the 0.70267 lower high (50% of the london-ny leg fib) breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 0.70342 ny open high and the 0.70403 london high sit above
Fed's Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC could shift USD and change this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 31 · price 0.7017
24h range low broken during NY hours; lower highs at 0.7040 and 0.7034.
Since the 0.7040 London high, AUDUSD has printed lower highs, with a 0.7034 lower high early in NY. It broke the 0.7020 London low and the overnight low near 0.7017 to a 0.7016 session low as the USD clawed back after the in-line ECI. RSI(14) near 31 is heavy but not yet oversold, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.7016, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7034, 0.7040
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.7020 london low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.7016 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
A close above the 0.7034 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Chicago PMI (due now), Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC could shift USD into the London close
14:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.70213
Lower-high chain 0.7043 → 0.7040 → 0.7034, retesting day low.
Highs have stepped lower from the 0.7043 Asian high to the 0.7040 London high and the 0.7034 NY high, set around the ECI print. Supply has pressed AUD/USD back to the 0.7019 day low as the USD claws back losses in the first hours of NY. RSI(14) is near 37 with price below both EMAs, and the 0.7017 prior low sits just beneath.
Support: 0.70192, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70285, 0.70342, 0.70403
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.7017 prior low breaks the Asian range floor and extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 0.7029 lower high and the descending trendline would stall the slide; the 0.7034 NY high, near the 61.8% fib, caps above
Holding the 0.7019 day low a second time would leave a two-touch floor intact below the 0.7040 london high
Chicago PMI (due now) plus Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC could shift the USD tone
Lower highs from the Asian high, flat floor near 0.7020.
Highs have stepped down from the 0.7043 Asian high to the 0.7040 London high and the 0.7034 NY high as USD clawed back after the in-line ECI. Buyers stepped in at the 0.7020 London low twice, in London and again in early NY, so price is pinned in the lower half of a 0.7020–0.7034 range, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.7021, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70342, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7020 london low exposes the 0.7017 asian low and breaks the range floor
Reclaim of the 0.7034 ny high, near the 61.8% fib of the london high-ny low leg, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Chicago PMI now and Fed's Daly/Musalem at 16:00/16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Downtrend inside range, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 0.70232
Lower highs at 0.7043/0.7040/0.7034 compressing onto the 0.7020 London low.
The London high at 0.7040 failed under the 0.7043 Asian high, and the first hour of NY has fallen from a lower high at 0.7034 back to the 0.7020 London low. That leaves lower highs pressing the bottom of the session range, with RSI(14) near 40. AUD is capped near 0.7025, and firm local PPI and credit data gave little lift.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70342, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC (f/c 56.1) lands within the next two bars and could break the range either way
Failure to hold the 0.7020 London low exposes the 0.7017 swing low and yesterday's 0.7014 prior low
M15 close above the 0.7034 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 0.7040 London high
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift USD later in the NY session
0.7020–0.7043 range; lower highs since Asian high, price below ema20.
London bounced from the 0.7020 london low to a 0.7040 london high, short of the 0.7043 Asian high. Price has since faded to 0.7026, printing a 0.7034 lower high around the 12:30 UTC ECI bar and holding just above the 0.7024 swing low. It now sits under the ema20 near 0.7030, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR around 4.6 pips. AUD has struggled to hold gains despite firm PPI and private credit data.
Support: 0.70236, 0.7020, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70299, 0.70342, 0.70403
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7020 london low breaks the session range floor and exposes the asian low at 0.7017
Close back above the ema20 and the 0.7034 lower high negates the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.7040 london high
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem at 16:00–16:30 UTC can shift USD during NY hours
12:46 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.70266
Range 0.7020–0.7043, highs stepping lower.
AUDUSD remains inside the Asian range (0.7017–0.7043), with London's 0.7040 lower high rejected and the ECI bar at 12:30 UTC reversing the bounce from the 0.7034 swing high back to 0.7026. Price sits just under the 61.8% retrace of the London low to lower high leg, holding above the 0.7025 swing low with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.70245, 0.7020, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70342, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7020 london low opens a test of the 0.7017 asian low
M15 close above the 0.7040 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 0.7043 asian high back in play
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift the USD leg during NY hours
Failure to hold the 0.7025 swing low confirms rejection from the 61.8% retrace
12:31 UTC
Range-bound, compressing · RSI 51 · price 0.70312
Lower highs and higher lows inside 0.7020–0.7043.
London held the 0.7020 London low but stalled at a lower session high of 0.7040, with the late-morning swing low at 0.7025 forming a higher low, so the range is compressing under the 0.7043 Asian high. Price is back at the 0.7032 range top, which lines up with the 100-day SMA where AUD has been capped since the strong US GDP print, and RSI(14) is flat near 51 at the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.70245, 0.7020
Resistance: 0.70323, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC lands in the current bar; a print away from 0.8% could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 0.7032 range top opens the 0.7040 session high and the 0.7043 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7025 swing low exposes the 0.7020 London low; a close below it breaks the higher lows
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Daly/Musalem at 16:00–16:30 UTC could extend NY-session swings
Lower high at 0.7040 under the 0.7043 Asian high; London range 0.7020–0.7040.
London bounced from a 0.7020 low through the 0.7032 shelf. It was rejected at a 0.7040 session high, a lower high under the 0.7043 Asian high. Price has slipped back to the 61.8% fib near 0.7028, just above the 11:45 swing low at 0.70245, ahead of NY open, with the soft USD tone giving AUD no follow-through.
Support: 0.70245, 0.7020, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70323, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) lands into NY open and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.7020 London low exposes the 0.7017 Asian low and the 0.7014 prior-day low
M15 close back above the 0.7032 London shelf reopens the 0.7040 session high and 0.7043 Asian high; a break of the lower-high line would void the rejection read
Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly 16:00 UTC add NY session event risk
12:03 UTC
Sideways, fading from London high · RSI 47 · price 0.70274
24h range 0.7014–0.7043; lower highs, rising lows.
London rallied from the 0.7020 london low to 0.7040 but was rejected short of the 0.7043 asian high. Price has since given back the leg to the 61.8% fib near 0.7028 as the USD steadies, holding just above the 0.70245 swing low. The 24h range is compressing, with lower highs against rising lows.
Support: 0.70245, 0.7020, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70322, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could break the compression either way
Close below the 0.70245 swing low exposes the london low at 0.7020 and the rising lows line
Failure to hold 0.7017 (asian low) breaks the rising-lows sequence
Reclaim of the 0.7032 shelf reopens the london high at 0.7040; asian high at 0.7043 caps the range
Range 0.7017–0.7043 intact, late-London rejection at the high.
AUDUSD is rotating inside a 0.7017–0.7043 range that has held since yesterday's NY session. London bounced from its low at 0.7020, just above the Asian low, and was rejected at the London high of 0.7040. Price is back at the 50% retrace of that London leg near 0.7030, with firm Australian PPI and credit data giving little lift as the USD steadied in Europe.
Support: 0.70282, 0.7020, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) lands in the first hour of NY and could break the range either way
Failure to hold the London base at 0.7028 exposes the London low at 0.7020
An M15 close below the range floor at 0.7017 ends the range read
An M15 close above the London high at 0.7040 and the Asian high at 0.7043 confirms a range break higher
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) during NY hours could extend any post-ECI move
11:32 UTC
Intraday range, higher lows off the London low · RSI 51 · price 0.70342
Higher-low chain inside the Asian range 0.7017–0.7043.
London held above the Asian low and bottomed at 0.70200. Higher lows then carried the London leg to 0.70403, where it was rejected just short of the 0.70427 Asian high. Price is now holding the 38.2% retrace near the 0.70321 pullback low, mid-range with RSI(14) near 51, as a soft USD gives little push ahead of US ECI.
Support: 0.70321, 0.70282, 0.7020
Resistance: 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70321 pullback low and the rising trendline puts the 0.70282 higher low in play
Failure to hold the 0.70282 higher low opens a retest of the 0.70200 London low
Close above the 0.70403 London high and the 0.70427 Asian high breaks the range to the upside
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; Chicago PMI follows at 13:45 UTC
Higher lows pressing a flat 0.7041–0.7043 range top.
London dipped to its 0.7020 low early, stayed above the Asian low, then climbed to a 0.7040 London high on a softer USD. That leaves price just under the 0.7041–0.7043 range top, with lows rising from yesterday's 0.7014 prior low and RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7020, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7043
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 Asian high breaks the 24h range top
Loss of the 0.7028 consolidation base reopens the 0.7020 London low and the rising-lows line
Break of the rising-lows line and the 0.7014 prior low turns the higher-low sequence into a lower low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 60 · price 0.70361
Higher low at 0.7020, break above 0.7028–0.7032 range top.
London held a higher low at 0.7020, above the 0.7017 Asian low. Late London then broke the 0.7028–0.7032 range top to a 0.7037 session high, putting price back above the 100-day SMA area near 0.7032 as the USD stays soft post-FOMC. The 0.7042 Asian high, which sits with yesterday's 0.7041 NY high, caps the window. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7020, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70368, 0.70427
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 0.7032 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
A close above the 0.7042 Asian high clears the 24h window's upper boundary
Failure to hold the 0.7020 London low exposes the 0.7017 Asian low
Asian high 0.7043 reversed; London low 0.7020 held above the Asian low; tight coil since.
The Asian rally to the 0.7043 Asian high reversed into London as the USD clawed back early losses. The London low at 0.7020 held just above the 0.7017 Asian low on a higher-lows line. Price has recovered to roughly the 50% retracement and coiled between 0.7028 and 0.7034 for two hours, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) under 4 pips.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7020, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7034, 0.7043
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7034 range top opens the 0.7043 Asian high
Loss of the 0.7028 range floor and the higher-lows line exposes the 0.7020 London low, then the 0.7017 Asian low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the near-term catalyst to break the coil; a hot print would revive USD demand
Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later in NY hours could extend any ECI move
10:32 UTC
Intraday down-leg from the Asia high, now stalling · RSI 52 · price 0.70317
Tight consolidation 0.7028–0.7032 after a London sell-off, holding above the Asia low.
London unwound the Asian rally, dropping from the asia high at 0.7043 to a london low at 0.7020 as USD clawed back early losses, but held above the asia low at 0.7017. Price has since recovered to the 50% retrace and is compressing in a 4-pip band capped by the 0.7032 range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) about 4 pips ahead of US ECI.
Support: 0.70282, 0.7020, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70324, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 range top opens the 61.8% retrace at 0.7034, then the asia high at 0.7043
Break of the 0.7028 range low exposes the london low at 0.7020, then the asia low at 0.7017
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the likely catalyst for a break of the compression; Chicago PMI follows at 13:45 UTC
10:17 UTC
Sideways, compressing after London dip · RSI 51 · price 0.70302
Higher lows (0.7014, 0.7017, 0.7020) under a flat 0.7041–0.7043 cap; tight 0.7028–0.7032 coil.
The Asian high at 0.7043 made a third failure at the 0.7041–0.7043 ceiling. The London drop on firmer USD stalled at the 0.7020 london low, a higher low above yesterday's post-GDP prior low at 0.7014. Price is now coiling between the 0.7028 range floor and the 0.7032 range cap, at the 50% fib of the Asian-London drop, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7020, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7043
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 range cap clears the 50% fib and opens a retest of the 0.7043 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7028 range floor puts the 0.7020 london low back in play; a break there undercuts the rising support
Loss of 0.7014 prior low would end the higher-low sequence
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read via USD
10:03 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 53 · price 0.70302
24h range 0.7014–0.7043; mid-London coil under 0.7032.
AUD/USD slid from the 0.7043 Asian high through the London open, with the London low at 0.7020 holding above the 0.7017 Asian low. The rebound has stalled at the 0.7032 London high, near the 50% fib of that drop, with the USD firming after strong US GDP. Lower highs from the Asian high (0.7043 → 0.7038 swing high → 0.7032) keep the 0.7014 prior NY low to 0.7043 range intact, and price is coiling flat around the EMAs.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.70381, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 London high breaks the lower-highs line and opens 0.7038 (swing high) and 0.7043 (Asian high)
Failure at the 0.7020 London low exposes the 0.7017 Asian low and the 0.7014 prior NY low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could break the London range
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift USD into the NY session
Inside Asian range 0.7019–0.7043; London low 0.7020 holding.
Firmer USD into Europe pulled AUD off the 0.7043 Asian high. Buyers stepped in twice at the 0.7020 London low, but the rebound is stalling at the 0.7032 London high, near the 50% fib and the flat EMA50. Mid-London, price is still trading inside the Asian range.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70323, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7032 london high opens a retest of the 0.7043 asian high
Failure to hold 0.7020 london low exposes the 0.7014 ny low at the base of the 24h range
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday lower highs inside a 24h range · RSI 48 · price 0.70298
Lower highs from the Asian high; London low held above the Asia low.
AUD/USD slid from the 0.7043 Asian session high into London as USD clawed back its Asia losses, printing a London low at 0.7020 just above the 0.7017 Asia low. The bounce met rejection at 0.7032, the rebound high at the 50% retrace, and keeps the lower-high sequence and the 0.7014–0.7043 range intact. Price sits at 0.7030, just above EMA20 and below EMA50.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70322, 0.70381, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.7038 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.7020 london low exposes the 0.7017 asia low and the 0.7014 prior low
A move through the 0.7043 session high invalidates the lower-high read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Lower highs off the Asian high, mid-range · RSI 46 · price 0.70283
Inside the Asian range; London low 0.7020 held, bounce capped at 0.7032.
Price slid from the 0.7043 Asian high into London as USD firmed, finding a floor at the 0.7020 London low just above the Asian range base. The rebound stalled at the 0.7032 London high, near the 50% retracement of that leg, and price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at ~46.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70322, 0.70427
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.7032 London high breaks the lower-high trendline from the Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7020 London low exposes the 0.7014 24h low from yesterday's NY session
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 0.7043 Asian high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
08:47 UTC
Intraday lower highs inside a wider 24h range · RSI 39 · price 0.70267
London LH/LL off the 0.7043 Asian high; bounce from 0.7020 testing the 38.2% fib.
The Asia session pushed to the 0.7043 Asian high, but that rejection held and London unwound the move with lower highs into a 0.7020 London low as USD clawed back into Europe. Price is bouncing to the 38.2% fib near 0.7029, still below the 0.7032 London high and both EMAs, with the 24h range intact at roughly 0.7014–0.7043.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70321, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 London high breaks the London lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 0.7020 London low exposes the 0.7017 Asian low and the range floor
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%), during the first hour of NY, could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 0.7043 Asian high, early London holding 0.7020.
Rejection at the 0.7043 Asian high started a chain of lower highs. As USD clawed back its Asia losses, early London pushed to a 0.7020 london low that has held twice. The asian low at 0.7017 and yesterday's ny low at 0.7014 sit just beneath, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70381, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.7017 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7014 ny low
US ECI 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.70212
Lower highs 0.7043 → 0.7032, London pressing session low.
Early London has extended the fade from the 0.7043 Asian high. The London-open bounce was rejected at 0.7032, broke the 0.7024 early-London floor and is now pressing the 0.7020 session low with RSI(14) near 31. USD firmness ahead of US data has erased the brief lift from this morning's AU PPI and private-credit beats.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7017 Asian low exposes the 0.7014 Thursday low
Close back above the 0.7032 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Daly and Musalem remarks from 16:00 UTC on December hike odds
08:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 36 · price 0.70221
Lower high 0.7032, lower low 0.7020; Asian range lower half tested.
The Asia-session rally on firm AU PPI and credit data stalled at 0.7043, matching yesterday's London high to form a double top. Since London open the move has unwound: the 0.7024 low broke, a lower high formed at 0.7032 and price is now at the 0.7020 session low as USD steadies in early Europe. RSI(14) sits near 36, not stretched.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70243, 0.70321, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7017 asian low exposes the prior ny low at 0.7014
Reclaim of the 0.7024 broken low and a close above the 0.7032 lower high would negate the lower-high sequence
Double top at 0.7043 caps the session; a break above it would invalidate the rejection read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker), Chicago PMI and Fed's Daly/Musalem later in NY could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending into London · RSI 24 · price 0.70222
Lower highs from the Asian high, fresh low at 0.7022.
Early London extended the slide from the 0.7043 Asian high. A rejection at the 0.7032 lower high was followed by a fresh low at 0.7022 as USD firmed in early Europe, and price has now retraced about 85% of the Asia rally. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched but not extreme, with the 0.7019 Asian low just below.
Support: 0.70191, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70427
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7019 asian low exposes the 0.7014 prior low from Thursday's NY session
M15 close back above the 0.7032 lower high and downtrend line breaks the lower-high sequence
Asia rally fib: a full retrace through 0.7019 erases the overnight rebound
US ECI (12:30 UTC) and Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) in the NY session could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Pullback inside a range, lower highs since Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.70286
Lower highs from 0.70427 Asian high, holding above 0.70243 swing low.
Asia rallied from 0.7019 to the 0.70427 Asian high after firm AU PPI and credit data. That move met rejection below yesterday's 0.70463 prior high and has since retraced about 78% to the 0.70243 swing low. Price sits near 0.7029 ahead of London open, capped by a lower-highs trendline with the latest lower high at 0.70321, and RSI(14) is neutral at 45.
Support: 0.70243, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70427, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70321 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.70427 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.70243 swing low exposes the 0.70172 Asian low and the 0.70141 prior low from Thursday's post-GDP selloff
US ECI (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Acceptance above the 0.70463 prior high would end the range read
24h range 0.7014–0.7046; Asia lower high, higher low, contracting.
Asia rallied from the 0.7019 Asia low to 0.7043 alongside firm local PPI and credit data, but was rejected short of yesterday's 0.7046 prior high. It then retraced to a 0.7024 session low, about 78.6% of the Asia rally, and is recovering into the pre-London window at 0.7031, just under the flat ema cluster near 0.7032. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR(14) is about 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.70243, 0.70191, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.70427, 0.70463
What it said to watch
Close back above the ema cluster at 0.7032 shifts focus to the 0.7043 Asia high and 0.7046 prior high
Loss of the 0.7024 session low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.7019 Asia low, then the 0.7014 NY low from Thursday's post-GDP selloff
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Intraday range, pullback from Asian high · RSI 41 · price 0.70289
Asian rally faded; lower highs below 0.7043, double low at 0.7024.
Asia rallied from 0.7019 to the 0.7043 Asian high after firmer AU PPI and credit data, but repeated rejection there gave way to a pre-London slide to a double low at 0.7024, near the 78.6% fib of the Asia rally. London opens at 0.7029, below both EMAs and inside Thursday's prior low 0.7014 to prior high 0.7046 range, with RSI(14) neutral at 41.
Support: 0.70243, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.70427, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7024 double low exposes the asian low at 0.7017 and the prior low at 0.7014
Reclaim of the 0.7032 broken low reopens the asian high at 0.7043, with the prior high at 0.7046 above
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.7038 after 0.7043 Asian high; double low at 0.7024 holding.
The Asia rally from the 0.7019 swing low, helped by firmer PPI and private credit data, met rejection at the 0.7043 Asian high. It has since faded to the 78.6% fib at 0.7024, where two bars found a floor into London open. Price is back below the 0.7032 breakdown level and the 0.7038 lower high, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.70243, 0.70191, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.70381, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.7024 (78.6% fib) exposes the 0.7019 swing low, then the 0.7014 prior low from the post-GDP drop
Reclaim of the 0.7032 breakdown level and the 0.7038 lower high revives the Asia rally read toward the 0.7043 Asian high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Short-term down, pulling back inside Asian range · RSI 32 · price 0.70264
Lower lows off the 0.7043 Asian high; 0.7032 pivot lost, still inside 0.7017-0.7043 Asian range.
The Asia rebound on firmer AU PPI and credit data stalled at the 0.7043 Asian high. Price has since dropped back through the 0.7032 pivot and the Asian rising trendline. The 0.7024 swing low sits near the 78.6% fib of the overnight leg, with RSI(14) near 32 and the London open just ahead.
Support: 0.70243, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.70427, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7024 swing low exposes the 0.7017 asian low and Thursday's 0.7014 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.7032 pivot negates the breakdown and puts the 0.7043 asian high and 0.7046 prior high back in play
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.7038, fresh low at 0.7025 after Asian double top.
The Asian rally from the 0.7019 asian low came after firm AU PPI and credit data. It stalled twice at 0.7042-0.7043, the asian high, and has since unwound about 70% into the London open, dropping through the 0.7032 broken low after a lower high at 0.7038. Price is testing the 0.7024 fib 78.6 with RSI(14) near 28 and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70241, 0.70191, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70315, 0.70381, 0.70427
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.7024 fib 78.6 exposes the 0.7019 asian low, then Thursday's 0.7014 thu low
M15 close back above the 0.7032 broken low negates the double top read; the 0.7038 lower high caps above that
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
The Asian session lifted price from the 0.7019 swing low to a 0.7043 Asian high on the firm PPI and credit prints, but it stalled below Thursday's 0.7046 prior high. It has since faded to the 50% retracement near 0.7032 into the London open, with a pullback low at 0.70315. RSI(14) sits near 42, and price trades below EMA20 and just under EMA50.
Support: 0.70315, 0.70281, 0.70191
Resistance: 0.70381, 0.70427, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 fib 61.8 exposes the 0.7019 swing low
Reclaim of the 0.7038 pullback hi puts the 0.7043 Asian high and 0.7046 prior high back in focus
Hold of the 0.70315 pullback low keeps the move a shallow retest of the Asian rally
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
AUD climbed through Asia from the 0.7017 asian low after firmer PPI and private credit, but the 0.7043 asian high capped alongside yesterday's 0.7041 highs. The late-Asia pullback found a pullback low at 0.7032, near the 38.2% retrace of the move, and price is drifting just under EMA20 with London open about an hour out.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7017, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7043, 0.7049
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 asian high breaks the triple cap and exposes the 0.7049 prior high
Loss of the 0.7032 pullback low opens a deeper retrace toward the 0.7017 asian low and 0.7014 ny low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC, on December hike appetite, are a later NY-session risk
Higher-low chain from 0.7017 Asian low, rolled off 0.7043 session high.
Asia session lifted off the 0.7017 asian low on the AU PPI and private credit beats. It built higher lows into a 0.7043 session high, which drew a rejection. Price has slipped back to retest the 0.7032 pullback low, at the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) near 51 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7017, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7043, 0.7052
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.7030 (50% fib) breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.7017 asian low and 0.7014 ny low
Reclaim of the 0.7043 session high opens the 0.7052 prior high from Thursday's open
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Higher lows off NY low; lower highs below asia high.
The strong US GDP print drove the NY low at 0.70141. Lows have stepped higher since, with a higher low at 0.70191 after the hot AU PPI and an Asian session rally to the 0.70427 asia high. Late in Asia, price slipped back under EMA20 after a rejection at that high and is testing the fib 38.2 at 0.70337.
Support: 0.70337, 0.70191, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70427, 0.70463
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 0.70337 opens the 0.70191 higher low; a break there ends the higher-low chain toward the ny low
M15 close above the 0.70427 asia high brings the 0.70463 swing high into view
London open in under 2h tests the Asian range
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian HH/HL chain flattening under the session high.
Late Asia session: AUD/USD built a higher low at 0.7019 and climbed as firmer AU PPI and private credit printed. The HH/HL grind is now flattening at the 0.7043 session high, just above the prior NY peak, with RSI(14) cooling toward 60 and ATR near 4 pips. The 0.7036 swing low is the nearest intraday floor, and the 0.7031 pullback low sits near the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib.
Support: 0.70361, 0.70315, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70427, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 session high opens the 0.7046 london high, then the 0.7055 prior high
Loss of the 0.7036 swing low breaks the Asian HL chain and exposes the 0.7031 pullback low
Failure to hold the pullback low turns focus back to the 0.7017 asian low
London open in ~2h is the first test of whether the Asian range extends or fades
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 0.70396
Asia higher low at 0.7019, tight consolidation under 0.7043.
Asia session lifted AUDUSD from a 0.7019 higher low, above the 0.7017 asia low, after the firm PPI and private credit prints. Price is now compressing in a 3-pip band just under the 0.7043 session high, which sits near yesterday's NY high at 0.7041. The 0.7036 micro low is holding underneath. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.70361, 0.7032, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70427, 0.70463, 0.70556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 session high exposes the 0.7046 london high, then the 0.7056 prior high
Loss of the 0.7036 micro low and the 0.7032 swing low (38.2-50% of the Asia rally fib) unwinds the Asia leg
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; a hot print revives the USD bid
Break below the 0.7017 asia low negates the Asia higher-low structure
04:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 74 · price 0.70405
Higher-low chain off Asia double bottom.
Late Asia session: AUDUSD formed a double bottom at the 0.7017 asia low and the 0.7019 dip at 01:00 UTC. It has since stepped up in higher lows after the AU PPI and private credit beats. Price is retesting yesterday's NY high, with the 0.7042 asia high capping for an hour, RSI(14) near 74 and the 0.7036 swing low holding underneath.
Support: 0.70361, 0.70298, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70424, 0.70556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7042 asia high clears yesterday's NY high and opens the 0.7056 prior high
Loss of the 0.7036 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; the fib 50% at 0.7030 is next
Rejection back toward the 0.7017 asia low would void the double bottom
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 72 · price 0.70416
Higher lows from 0.7014; testing the 0.7041-0.7042 highs.
Late in the Asia session, price has climbed in higher lows from the 0.7019 Asian low. The lift came on the firmer PPI and private credit prints. It is now pressing the session high at 0.7042, which caps the twin Thursday highs at 0.7041, and the rising trendline holds with the swing low at 0.7036 beneath. RSI(14) is near 72, hot but not stretched.
Support: 0.70361, 0.70191, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70424, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7042 session high exposes the 0.7046 prior high, then the 0.7055 Thu high
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.7036 swing low turns the read back to range
Loss of the 0.7019 Asian low reopens the 0.7014 Thu low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 0.70396
Higher lows 0.7014/0.7017/0.7019; Asia high capped at 0.7042.
The Asia rally ran from the 0.7019 Asian low after the PPI and private credit beats. It extends a chain of higher lows off the 0.7014 NY low and pushed past the NY rebound high to a 0.7042 session high. Late in Asia, price is pausing just under that level with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.7032, 0.70191, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70424, 0.70556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7042 session high opens yesterday's Asia high at 0.7056
Loss of the 0.7032 pullback low (near the 38.2% of the Asia rally) puts the 0.7019 Asian low back in view
Break below the 0.7014 NY low ends the higher-lows sequence
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read during NY hours
HH/HL chain off the Asia double bottom, capped near 0.7042.
Late in the Asia session, AUD has climbed in higher highs from a 0.7017/0.7019 double bottom after firm local PPI and private credit prints. It is now pressing the 0.7042 prior highs that capped yesterday's London and NY bounces, with a small rejection wick on the latest high and RSI(14) near 67. The 0.7036 higher low is the first pivot below.
Support: 0.7036, 0.7032, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7042, 0.7046, 0.7055
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7042 prior highs clears the cap and opens the 0.7046 london highs, then the 0.7055 24h high
Loss of the 0.7036 higher low and the 0.7032 pullback low (50% fib zone) breaks the Asian HH/HL chain
Break back below the 0.7017 asia low negates the double bottom
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem during NY hours could materially shift this read
Asia higher-low chain from 0.7019 into the 0.7041-0.7042 cap.
The Asia leg from 0.7019 followed firm AUD PPI and private credit prints, and price has built a higher-low chain at 0.7032 then 0.7036. It is now pressing 0.7041-0.7042, a triple cap that also held twice during Thursday's London and NY sessions after the US GDP-driven dip to 0.7014. RSI(14) is at 63, price is above both EMAs and ATR is under 5 pips.
Support: 0.70361, 0.70315, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70419, 0.70463, 0.7055
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7042 triple cap opens the 0.7046 London high, then the 0.7055 24h high
Loss of the 0.7036 Asia HL and the 0.7032 pullback low (near the 38.2% of the Asia leg) ends the higher-low chain, putting the 0.7017 Asian low back in focus
Another rejection at 0.7042 keeps the 0.7014-0.7042 range in place
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later today could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through Asia · RSI 63 · price 0.70361
HH/HL chain off 0.7019, pressing session high 0.7040.
The Asia session put in a higher low at 0.7019 above the 0.7017 asian low, and the Asia rally has since reclaimed the 0.7032 pivot (38.2% of the move) as the dollar slips on fading Fed hike odds. Price is stalling at the 0.7040 session high, just under yesterday's NY bounce high, with the post-gdp low at 0.7014 marking the floor of the 24h range.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7017, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7046, 0.7055
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7040 session high exposes the 0.7046 london base and 0.7055 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.7032 pivot puts the 0.7017 asian low and 0.7014 post-gdp low back in play
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem at 16:00–16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double low 0.7017/0.7019 broken higher; higher lows through Asia.
Mid-Asia, price is bid off a double low at 0.7017/0.7019 after firm local PPI and credit prints. It cleared the 0.7030 neckline and is now pressing Thursday's NY high at 0.7041, with higher lows at the 0.7032 Asia HL. The GDP-driven slide earlier bottomed at the 0.7014 gdp low; RSI(14) is near 63 with ATR about 5 pips.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7019, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7046
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.7041 ny high exposes the 0.7046 prior high from Thursday's London session
Loss of the 0.7032 asia hl and the rising Asia line puts the double low at 0.7019 back in play
Break below the 0.7014 gdp low invalidates the double-bottom read
US ECI (12:30 UTC) and Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read in the NY session
02:48 UTC
Range-bound, Asia rebound into range top · RSI 60 · price 0.70358
Higher low at 0.7019, double test of 0.7037 Asian high inside 0.7014–0.7041 range.
The Asia rally came off a 0.7019 higher low after firm local PPI and credit data and a softer USD. It cleared the post-NY lower-high line, held a retest of the 0.7032 pullback low and is now pressing the 0.7037 Asian high for a second time. Price is still inside the 0.7014 NY low to 0.7041 prior high range, with RSI(14) at 60 and no extreme.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7019, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7041, 0.7046
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 prior high breaks the overnight range top and brings the 0.7046 London high into view
Second rejection at the 0.7037 Asian high, followed by a loss of the 0.7032 pullback low, puts the 0.7019 higher low back in play
A break below the 0.7014 NY low resolves the range lower
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Daly and Musalem later today, could materially shift this read
Asia range break above 0.7030, tight consolidation 0.7032–0.7036.
In the Asia session, AUDUSD printed a 0.7017 low, then a higher low at 0.7019. A range break through 0.7030 tagged a 0.70372 session high as the USD softened. Price is now consolidating at 0.7032–0.7036 above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 62, and the NY high at 0.70414 is the next cap.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70191, 0.70172
Resistance: 0.70372, 0.70414
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.7030 breakout area keeps the Asia range break intact; a close back below it reads as a false break
A close above the 0.70372 session high exposes the 0.70414 NY high
Loss of the 0.7019 higher low reopens the 0.7017 asia low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Range, recovering from NY lows · RSI 58 · price 0.70345
Higher lows under flat 0.7037–0.7041 cap.
The Asia session bounced from the 0.7019 asian low and cleared the 0.7030 asia cap after slightly hot local PPI and credit data. Price is stalling at the 0.7037 asian high, with RSI(14) near 58. Higher lows from the 0.7014 ny low, set after the US GDP print, hold on a rising trendline, while the 0.7041 prior high capped price twice on Thursday.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70191, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70372, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 prior high breaks the 24h range top
Slip back below the 0.7030 asia cap returns price to mid-range; loss of the 0.7019 asian low breaks the higher-low chain
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly and Musalem later today could materially shift this read
Asia double bottom resolved higher, testing Asia high.
Thursday's post-GDP/PCE sell-off bottomed at the 0.7014 NY low. Asia session then built a double bottom at 0.7017–0.7019 and broke the 0.7030 neckline, lifting price back above the 0.7032 100-day SMA flagged in the news flow. The Asia high at 0.7037 is now capping, with the NY high at 0.7041 just above.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70372, 0.70414, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7030 neckline negates the breakout and puts the 0.7017 asia low back in play
Break of the 0.7041 ny high exposes the 0.7046 london high from Thursday
Loss of 0.7014 ny low invalidates the double bottom read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Range after Thursday's decline, Asia bounce · RSI 58 · price 0.70325
0.7014–0.7041 range; Asian double bottom pushed through 0.7030.
Thursday's slide from the 0.7061 day high to the 0.7014 prior low on hot US GDP has settled into a 0.7014–0.7041 range, capped twice at the 0.7041 swing high. Early Asia built a double bottom at the 0.7017 asian low and 0.7019 after the slightly hot AU PPI and credit prints, then cleared the 0.7030 break level. Price is now stalling under the 0.7037 session high, near the 50% fib of Thursday's decline, with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 0.70295, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70372, 0.70414, 0.70609
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7030 break level negates the Asian double bottom and reopens the 0.7017 asian low
A close above the 0.7037 session high and 0.7041 swing high breaks the range top, opening the 61.8% fib and the 0.7061 day high
Loss of the 0.7014 prior low breaks the range lower
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem remarks later Friday could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a downtrend, testing Asia high · RSI 54 · price 0.70303
Higher low at 0.7019 above the 0.7017 Asia low; price at range top 0.7031.
The Asian range holds between the 0.7017 Asia low and a 0.7019 higher low, and a 9-pip push has taken price to the 0.7031 Asia high, the neckline of a small double bottom. That high sits just under the 0.7032 100-day SMA zone that has capped since the USD bid on Thursday's US GDP beat. Price is near the 50–61.8% retracement of the NY high–Asia low fib, with RSI(14) at a neutral 54 and ATR(14) near 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.70191, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70313, 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7031 Asia high confirms the double bottom and opens the 0.7036 late NY high, then the 0.7041 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.7019 higher low returns price to the 0.7017 Asia low and the 0.7014 NY low
London open could break the Asian range; US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY high, Asian range 0.7017–0.7030.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs from the 0.7041 NY high (0.7036, then 0.7030) as USD stays firm after the hot US GDP print, retracing over 61.8% of the NY rebound. The 00:30 UTC PPI beat spike to 0.7030 met rejection at the trendline, and price is pressing the lower half of an Asian range between 0.7017 and 0.7030.
Support: 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70306, 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7017 asian low exposes the 0.7014 ny low, the session low from NY hours
M15 close above the 0.7030 asian high and lower-high trendline breaks the descending sequence, with 0.7036 lower high next
Reclaim of the 0.7041 ny high would negate the NY rebound fib retracement
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.70239
Lower highs from 0.7041 NY high; Asian range 0.7017–0.7030 in development.
After US GDP strength drove the day low at 0.7014 during NY hours, the rebound stalled at the 0.7041 NY high and has printed lower highs since. Early Asia is holding a 0.7017–0.7030 Asian range, with the 00:30 UTC push rejected at the asian high under the falling trendline. Firm Australian PPI and private credit data left the tape unmoved; RSI(14) is 43 and price sits below EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70295, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7030 asian high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain, putting the 0.7041 ny high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.7017 asian low exposes the 0.7014 day low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Daly and Musalem, are the next catalysts that could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.70414; Asia higher lows off 0.70172.
The US GDP beat drove a NY-session drop to the 0.70141 NY low, and the recovery stalled at the 0.70414 NY high, with lower highs since. Asia probed 0.70172, the asian low, and rebounded. Price is now retesting the 50% fib and the lower-highs line just under the 0.70295 session high, with little reaction to AU PPI and RSI(14) neutral at 48 while price sits on the EMA20.
Support: 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70295, 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70295 session high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 0.70360 swing high
Failure at the 50% fib and a loss of the 0.70172 asian low reopens the 0.70141 NY low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly and Musalem later in NY could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia stabilising · RSI 51 · price 0.70283
Lower highs from 0.7041; Asia low 0.7017 holding above NY low 0.7014.
Asia has rebuilt from 0.7017, a higher low above the post-GDP NY low at 0.7014. Price is now pressing the Asian high near 0.7031, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the 0.7041–0.7017 fib leg. The lower-high trendline from the 0.7041 double high is still intact after hot US GDP revived USD demand.
Support: 0.70239, 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70306, 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC lands on the current bar; a hot print tests the asian high at 0.7031
M15 close above the 0.7036 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline from 0.7041
Loss of the 0.7024 pivot low returns focus to the asian low 0.7017 and ny low 0.7014
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 0.70259
Lower highs under descending line, base at 0.7014-0.7017.
AUDUSD slid from the 0.7068 Asian high to a 0.7014 day low in NY as USD firmed on the 3.4% GDP beat. Lower highs followed at the 0.7041 twin highs and the 0.7036 lower high, all beneath a descending line. Early Asia is pressing that line near 0.7026, which is also the 38.2% of the fade leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70306, 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending line and the 0.7030 minor high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.7036 lower high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.7017 late NY low exposes the 0.7014 day low and extends the lower-low chain
Australian PPI at 00:30 UTC could reshape the Asian range
Twin highs at 0.7041 cap the window; US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD test