Multi-day downtrend carved a base near $58K, with twin lows around 57,741 and 58,063 marking a potential double bottom before BTC reclaimed $60K on the dovish Warsh comments and the June NFP miss. Price has since pushed to 61,382 and now sits between the reclaimed $60K floor and the $63K supply wall that capped every prior rally. ATR remains elevated, so the bounce is expanding rather than compressing.
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 63,000 supply wall would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 60,000 reopens the 58,000 swing low
ISM Services PMI Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed could reshape this read
H4 carved a series of lower highs into the 57741 YTD low before a ~6% bounce reclaimed the $60k handle, helped by the dovish 57K NFP miss and softer USD. Price is stalling near the 50% retrace of the 65511-57741 drop, right under the $63k supply wall that has capped every attempt this window. ATR remains elevated — this is an expansion regime, not compression, so the bounce is holding above rising near-term lows rather than trending cleanly.
Support: 60,000.00, 57,741.00
Resistance: 63,000.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63000 supply wall opens continuation higher
Loss of the 60000 handle reopens the 57741 ytd low
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed could reprice this bounce
H4 has been in a clear downtrend since the 67k area, carving lower highs and lower lows into the 57741 YTD low. Twin lows near 58k formed a double-bottom base and price has since reclaimed the 60k handle on the soft NFP miss and dovish Warsh read, now pressing back above both EMAs. The $63k supply wall remains the pivotal cap on this bounce.
Support: 60,000.00, 57,741.00
Resistance: 63,000.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63000 supply wall opens continuation higher
Loss of 60000 handle reopens the 58000 double-bottom / ytd low
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed are high-impact for this read
H4 remains a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows, but price reclaimed the $60K handle and is bouncing off the 57,741 YTD-area low after the soft NFP print (57K vs 110K) and dovish Warsh commentary. The move is a relief rally into declining resistance, with 61,900 the immediate cap and the $63K supply wall the key structural test above. ATR(14) is elevated, reflecting the expanded swings of the past two weeks rather than compression.
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63,000 supply wall confirms a durable bounce
Failure to hold the 60,000 handle reopens the 58,000 YTD low
FOMC Minutes (Jul 8) and ISM Services (Jul 6) could materially shift this read
09:05 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 49 · price 60,288.60
Lower highs / lower lows, double-bottom bounce at 58k.
Clear H4 downtrend since the mid-window peak near 67.2K, printing successive lower highs and lower lows into the 58K YTD low. A double-bottom around 58K sparked a relief bounce that reclaimed 60K, in line with the dovish Warsh tone, but price remains capped below EMA50 and the 63K supply wall. ATR stayed elevated through the selloff, signalling an expanding-volatility regime rather than compression.
Resistance: 61,225.00
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
H4 close above 63k supply wall would break the descending structure
Failure to hold the 58k low confirms continuation of lower-low sequence
Sustained trade back above 61225 swing high needed to challenge the 63k cap
Lower highs since 67K, double bottom forming near 58K.
Multi-week downtrend off the 67K high has printed a sequence of lower highs, with the slide bottoming twice near 58K (57,741 the extreme) to form a tentative double bottom. Price reclaimed the 60K psych level on the Warsh dovish tone but stalls below the 61,225 swing high, and the 63K supply wall remains the broader cap. ATR(14) is elevated, reflecting the sharp liquidity-repricing swings, while EMA20 has flattened under a still-declining EMA50.
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
H4 close below 57,741 confirms a fresh lower-low and breaks the double-bottom read
Reclaim and hold above 61,225 opens the path toward the 63K supply wall
Persistent H4 downtrend since the 67,183 peak, printing successive lower highs and lower lows into a 57,741 cycle low before this relief bounce back above the 60K pivot. The move is crypto-native — record June ETF outflows and whale distribution have kept the tape heavy despite a softening macro backdrop. Price has reclaimed EMA20 but sits below the descending EMA50, and ATR remains elevated, consistent with an expansionary, trending regime rather than compression.
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 61,225 recent high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
H4 close below 58,300 swing low reopens the 57,741 cycle low
Sustained hold above the 60K pivot needed to confirm the bounce
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 43 · price 59,904.03
Lower highs and lower lows since 67K peak.
H4 remains in a clear downtrend — lower highs and lower lows since the 67.2K peak, dragged by record ETF outflows and extreme-fear sentiment into a ~14% quarterly loss. Price bounced off the 57.7K swing low to reclaim 60K, but the latest bar was rejected near 61.2K and closed back at 59904, keeping the 60,800 cap intact below the 62,400 200-week MA. ATR is elevated, reflecting the expanded volatility of the recent slide.
What it said to watch
US NFP Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 110K) after a soft ADP print could materially shift this read
H4 close above 60,800 opens the path back to the 62,400 200-week MA
Failure to hold the 58K cycle floor exposes the 57,737 swing low as a lower-low confirmation