22:08 UTC
Downtrend since late-September peak, oversold bounce under way · RSI 39 · price 78,374.69
Lower highs and lower lows from 87,270; double top neckline broken, post-hack low at 76,227.
BTCUSD has been in a five-week downtrend since the 87,270 double top (Sep 21 / Oct 1). The 82,570 neckline gave way in early October, and the lower highs at 84,800 and 81,890 have kept the decline orderly, while the Oct 29 Binance hack drove price through the 79,200 prior low to a 76,227 swing low that matches the early-September base. The three-session rebound since then is described as short-covering led and sits below both the ema20 (~80,230) and EMA50, with RSI near 39 recovering from the low 30s rather than signalling a turn.
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 79,200 prior low, then the ema20 near 80,230, would be the first sign the post-hack leg is being retraced
- Loss of the 76,227 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the sep low at 74,900
- Only a close above the 84,797 oct high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the double top
- US midterm results (Tue Nov 3) could materially shift this read, as could continued spot ETF outflows or any movement from the hacker wallets holding 18,270 BTC