19:05 UTC
Downtrend from Q4 peak, bounce off lows · RSI 36 · price 60,312.58
Lower highs and lower lows, basing near ytd low.
Regime is a clear downtrend since the ~126K peak in Q4 2025, an unwind of more than 50% that dragged price to a YTD low near 57.7K before this week's bounce reclaimed 60K on dovish Fed repricing after the soft 57K NFP print. Price trades well below the W1 EMA(50), keeping the macro structure heavy, with the $63K supply wall the immediate ceiling on the recovery. The 57-58K zone has held as support twice, with buyers stepping in around the round-number floor.
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above 63K supply wall challenges the downtrend read
- Failure to hold 57-58K opens the path toward sub-57K
- FOMC Minutes Wed Jul 8 could materially shift this read