Higher lows since Saturday, retesting the equal prior high below the NFP spike high.
Friday's NFP miss produced an initial spike to the 87,058 NFP high in the first hour of NY. Price then rejected and unwound to 83,747 by late NY hours as long-end yields edged higher, despite the dovish print. Price based in a tight 84,400–85,000 band through Saturday, then put in Sunday higher lows before a late-Sunday push reclaimed the 61.8% fib of the NFP drop and retested the 86,581 prior high. RSI(14) near 79 is overbought, with price roughly 950 above EMA20 at ~85,390.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 86,581 prior high exposes the 87,058 NFP high; another rejection leaves equal highs capping price
Break of the Sunday higher lows trendline and the 61.8% fib near 85,790 would put the EMA20 near 85,390 back in play
Loss of the 85,000 round number reopens Saturday's range and the 83,747 post-NFP low
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; thin weekend liquidity into the Monday open
Higher lows off 83,747; Saturday range broken, testing pre-NFP shelf.
Friday's NFP miss produced a spike to the 87,058 NFP high early in the NY session that was fully rejected, with a roughly 3,300-point slide to 83,747 during NY hours. Saturday held a tight 84,460–84,930 range before Sunday's steady advance on higher lows, and late-Sunday trade broke above that range and reclaimed the 61.8% fib of the post-NFP drop at 85,793. Price sits well above EMA20 (~85,258) with RSI(14) near 77, now pressing the 86,000 psych level beneath the pre-NFP shelf and the 86,580 prior high.
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 61.8% fib at 85,793 would mark the push as a failed retest of the pre-NFP shelf
Sustained trade above the 86,000 psych level and the 86,580 prior high opens a retest of the 87,058 NFP high
Loss of EMA20 and the 85,000 round number would break the higher-lows trendline and return price toward the Saturday range
RSI(14) is overbought near 77; a lower RSI high on a new price high would flag bearish divergence
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Saturday after the NFP spike was rejected.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked BTC to a 87,058 week high in Friday's 12:00 UTC bar. Price then reversed about 3,300 through the NY session to the 83,747 NFP low. Since a flat Saturday range it has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, and Sunday's late push has carried it above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 73 (overbought), into the 61.8% fib of that sell-off near 85,790. The 85,000 round number below and the 86,580 pre-NFP high above frame the leg, which has been built in thin weekend liquidity.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 85,790 opens the path to the 86,580 pre-NFP high and then the 87,058 week high
A break of the rising trendline and EMA20 near 85,180 would put the 85,000 round number back in play
A rejection at 85,790 would echo the week-high failure and leave the 83,747 NFP low as the swing reference
ISM Services PMI on Mon at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read