BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 13 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:14 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact below both EMAs · RSI 31 · price 67,900.22
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday; post-PPI bounce faded back toward the week low.
BTC has carved lower highs from Tuesday's 75,330 open, through Wednesday's 74,719 peak and down to the 67,506 week low in Friday's Asia session, as the hot Tuesday CPI and Fed-hike repricing kept pressure on. Friday's bounce stalled at 70,094, short of the 38.2% retrace of the Wed–Fri drop and just under the lower-highs trendline. The soft PPI then drew a rejection that has pushed price back below a falling EMA(20) at 69,171. RSI(14) sits at 30.5, well off the 8.9 extreme printed at the week low, while ATR near $590 per bar keeps ranges wide.
Support: 67,505.66, 67,000.00
Resistance: 69,171.05, 70,093.81, 70,581.19
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 67,506 week low with RSI holding above its 8.9 low would print rsi divergence (bullish) at a lower low; acceptance under it puts the 67,000 round number in play
A reclaim of the ema20 at 69,171 followed by a close above the 70,094 fri high would break the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
The ema50 at 70,581 sits just above the $70K psych area that capped Friday's bounce
Fed's Jefferson speaks in ~46 min (00:00 UTC), and Warsh's Monday 17:00 UTC speech could materially shift this read
22:27 UTC
Downtrend, below both falling EMAs · RSI 32 · price 68,261.82
Lower highs capping a base at the 68k floor after Thursday-Friday sell-off.
BTC has unwound from Thursday's 74,700 highs. The sell-off ran from Thursday's London session into Friday's Asia session, reaching a 67,506 swing low as hike fears and ETF outflows outweighed the data. Since then the cooler-PPI spike to 70,094 (ppi high) met rejection, and highs have stepped lower beneath a falling EMA(20) at 69,275, while the 68k floor has been tested three times during NY hours. RSI(14) at 31.6 has cycled 31–39 since recovering from single-digit readings at the low and is not yet oversold.
Support: 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,274.86, 70,093.81, 70,679.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 67,506 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the downtrend
H1 close above the ema20 (69,275) and the lower-highs trendline breaks the stepping-down sequence
Reclaim of the ppi high at 70,094 and the $70K handle would leave price at the 38.2% sell-off fib area, with ema50 at 70,679 above
Fed's Jefferson in ~1.5h and Warsh on Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with thin weekend liquidity around the 68k floor
BTC has unwound from Tuesday's 75,330 week high. The hot CPI drove Tuesday's NY selloff, and Thursday's break of the 73,100–74,700 range ran into a 67,506 week low during Friday's Asia session. The relief bounce met rejection at the 70,094 post-PPI high, short of the 38.2% fib, even with the softer PPI print. Price is back testing the 68,004 session low beneath a falling EMA(20) at 69,375 and EMA(50) at 70,775, while RSI(14) has climbed off sub-10 readings but stays capped near 39.
Support: 68,004.11, 67,505.66
Resistance: 70,093.81, 70,775.33
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 68,004 session low exposes the 67,506 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 at 69,375 and then the 70,094 post-PPI high would break the lower-high structure, with the ema50 at 70,775 above
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and thin weekend liquidity could move price against the 68,000 area
Warsh speech Mon 17:00 UTC is the high-impact risk that could reshape this read
Lower highs and lower lows all week; tight base 67,505–70,094 below EMA(20).
The week has printed lower highs and lower lows. Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the 75,330 week high structure, then selling ran through the London-NY transition on Thursday and a flush in Friday's Asia session set a 67,505 week low as the dollar hit 19-month highs. RSI(14) has recovered from 8.9 to 38.1, but the bounce after the softer PPI stalled at the 70,094 bounce high, just under the 38.2% of the week drop fib. Price then faded back below EMA(20) at 69,433 and is holding the 68,008 NY low, with EMA(50) at 70,855 still sloping lower.
Support: 68,008.10
Resistance: 69,433.22, 70,093.81, 70,854.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(20) at 69,433 and the 70,094 bounce high would break the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 68,008 NY low reopens the 67,505 week low, which sits at the August-low zone
EMA(50) at 70,855 sits above the 38.2% week drop fib; acceptance above both would mark a deeper retracement
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, plus thin weekend liquidity with futures OI at 704K BTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; 68,000–69,500 consolidation above week low.
Hike fears and a 19-month-high dollar drove lower highs from Wednesday's 74,719 NY-session peak to Friday's 67,506 Asia session week low, with price below both a falling EMA(20) at 69,481 and EMA(50) at 70,931. The cooler PPI print produced a spike to a 70,094 ppi high that was rejected within the hour, below the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, and the subsequent 68,008 ppi low now frames a 68,000–69,500 consolidation. RSI(14) has recovered from 8.9 to 36.8 without reaching 50, and ATR is easing from its ~$699 peak.
Support: 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,480.71, 70,093.81, 70,931.29
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 69,481 would mark the first reclaim since Thursday's slide
Acceptance above the 70,094 ppi high and the 38.2% fib, toward the ema50 at 70,931, would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 68,008 ppi low exposes the 67,506 week low; a break there extends the downtrend
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC Sat and thin weekend liquidity with elevated futures OI could materially shift this read
Fed Chair Warsh, Mon 17:00 UTC, is the key catalyst for the 70K area
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI; post-PPI bounce rejected under 70K.
BTCUSD has printed lower highs at 75,330, 74,719 and 70,094 since Tuesday's hot CPI hit in the NY session. The slide through 70K ran into Asia hours today and set a week low at 67,506. The softer PPI lifted price to a 70,094 PPI high, just shy of the 38.2% fib of the week drop, but supply capped it under the psych handle and price is back below EMA(20) at 69,541 and EMA(50) at 71,014. RSI(14) has climbed to 36 from a single-digit extreme, with the 68,008 session low holding above the week low so far.
Support: 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,540.88, 70,093.81, 71,013.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 70,094 PPI high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 68,008 session low exposes the 67,506 week low; a break there confirms another lower-low
Reclaim of ema20 at 69,541 needed before ema50 at 71,014 comes into play
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC Saturday and Chair Warsh Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; post-flush base between 67,500 and 70,100.
BTC has trended lower since the week opened near 74,700. Each leg lower followed a US data or macro shock: the hot CPI on Tuesday took out 73,400, and Thursday's NY-session breakdown below 72,600 ran through 70,000 into the week low at 67,506 during Asia hours, with RSI(14) bottoming near 9. The soft PPI print lifted price to 70,094, short of the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's sell-off, and supply capped it there. Price has since slid back below a declining ema20 and ema50, and RSI(14) has stalled in the low 30s, with ATR still elevated near $660.
Support: 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,612.64, 70,093.81, 71,101.77
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 69,613 and the ppi high at 70,094 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 68,008 swing low puts the 67,506 week low back in play; a break there extends the downtrend
Recovery through the 38.2% sell-off fib near 70,260 would shift the read from rejection to a deeper retracement
Fed's Daly (17:00 UTC) and Jefferson (Sat 00:00 UTC) remarks, with elevated futures OI on thin spot liquidity, could trigger outsized swings either way
The ema50 at 71,102 has capped the structure since Thursday's breakdown
Lower highs and lower lows; PPI bounce capped below EMA(20).
The week's dominant leg ran from Wednesday's 74,719 lower high. It accelerated in Thursday's NY session and through Friday's Asia session to a 67,506 week low on the firm dollar and long liquidations, with ATR expanding to about $674. The soft PPI print lifted price to a 70,094 PPI high, but the spike was rejected just short of the 38.2% fib of the week drop and has faded to a 68,008 NY low. Price sits below the falling EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) has recovered from 8.9 to 33.5 without reclaiming 50.
Support: 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,718.02, 70,093.81, 71,203.42
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 70,094 PPI high and the EMA(20) at 69,718 would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 38.2% fib near 70,261 into play
Failure to hold the 68,008 NY low reopens the 67,506 week low
EMA(50) at 71,203, near the 50% fib of the week drop, caps any extended recovery
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC today and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; PPI bounce rejected at ema20.
Lower highs since Monday's 75,450 print. Tuesday's hot CPI started the slide, and Thursday's NY-session break of 72,000 carried it into an Asia-session drop to the 67,505 week low, where RSI(14) bottomed at 8.9. The soft PPI print lifted price to 70,094, but that bounce was rejected just above the ema20 at 69,815 and below the 38.2% fib of the 74,719–67,505 leg. Price is now back under both EMAs with RSI(14) at 34.4 and ATR(14) expanded to ~64,800 pips from ~44,000 before the drop.
Support: 68,413.66
Resistance: 69,814.53, 70,093.81, 71,301.47
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 70,094 PPI high and ema20 would break the lower-high sequence
EMA50 at 71,301, still sloping lower, sits above the 38.2% fib as the next cap on any extended recovery
Failure to hold the 68,414 swing low exposes the 67,505 week low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read via the dollar
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, early rebound off week low · RSI 39 · price 69,348.63
Lower highs all week; higher lows forming off the 67,506 week low, capped below ema20.
BTC has printed lower highs all week, from Monday's 75,474 to Wednesday's 74,690. The steepest leg came in Asia hours Friday, dropping to a 67,506 week low as a firm dollar and long liquidations hit. The soft PPI headline sparked a spike to a 70,094 ppi high that was rejected just above ema20 (69,910). Price is back below both EMAs, and RSI(14) has recovered to 39 from single digits while ATR stays elevated near $640.
Support: 68,956.06, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,909.52, 70,093.81, 71,214.57
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 70,094 ppi high and ema20 would mark the first higher high since Wednesday, with the 38.2% retrace of the Wed-Fri drop near 70,250 next
Thursday's 71,215 thu low, now overhead, sits just below ema50 at 71,399
Loss of the 68,956 ppi low and the 68,414 higher low would undo the rebound structure and expose the 67,506 week low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; weekend liquidity follows
Lower highs since Monday; range break Thursday, flush to week low Friday.
BTC has printed lower highs since Monday's 75,474 week high. Tuesday's hot CPI hit in the NY session, and Thursday's NY selloff broke the 71,000–72,100 range. Friday's Asia session then flushed to a 67,506 week low with RSI(14) at 8.9 amid heavy long liquidations. The bounce has since stalled at 69,479, below EMA(20) at 69,957 and EMA(50) at 71,478, with RSI back to 33.8 and ATR easing from 69,923 to 60,413 pips; price holds just above the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Friday drop, with the bounce low at 68,414 the nearest floor.
Support: 68,413.66, 68,000.00, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,479.48, 69,957.10, 71,214.57
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, due in under 30 minutes, could materially shift this read; Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) follow
H1 close above the bounce high at 69,479 and EMA(20) near 69,957 would bring the falling trendline from Wednesday's high into play
Failure to hold the bounce low at 68,414 exposes the round number 68,000 and the 67,506 week low
Prior low at 71,215 sits just below EMA(50); reclaiming it would break the lower-high sequence
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; shallow bounce below falling EMAs.
Lower highs since Monday's 75,474 peak. The hot CPI on Tuesday's NY session started the slide, and Thursday's NY session broke the 73,200–74,700 range. A Friday Asia-session flush then tagged the 67,506 week low with RSI(14) at 8.9, as the hawkish Fed repricing, dollar strength and long liquidations kept pressure on. The bounce has lifted RSI to 34.8 and taken back just over the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday drop near 69,200. Price is still below a falling EMA(20) at 70,045 and EMA(50) at 71,575, and today's session high at 69,479 has capped it so far.
Support: 68,413.66, 68,000.00, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,479.48, 70,045.44, 71,574.57
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in ~87 min) could materially shift this read; the $68K–$70K zone is the pivot
An H1 close above the ema20 at 70,045 and the 70K handle would be the first reclaim since Thursday; the drop's 38.2% retracement sits at 70,261
Failure to hold the 68,414 pullback low and the 68,000 round number reopens the 67,506 week low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) after PPI can extend or unwind the post-print move
Ema50 at 71,575 caps any deeper retracement while the lower-high sequence stays intact
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday; first higher low after the Asia flush.
BTC has carved lower highs since Wednesday's 74,719 peak. Thursday's NY-session break of the 71,165–72,100 consolidation, in a strong-dollar, ETF-outflow backdrop, was followed by a liquidation flush in the Asia session to a week low of 67,506. RSI(14) bottomed at 8.9 and has recovered to 34.9 on a London-morning bounce off a 68,414 higher low, but price still sits below a falling EMA(20) at 70,131. It is now pressing the session high at 69,379, the 23.6% fib of the week's decline and the lower highs trendline.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66, 68,000.00
Resistance: 69,378.59, 70,131.09
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 69,379 session high and the lower highs trendline opens a test of ema20 at 70,131
Thursday low at 71,165 is the broken range base; a reclaim would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 68,414 higher low, with psych 68,000 below, exposes the week low at 67,506
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off week low · RSI 31 · price 69,084.92
Lower highs since Monday; Thursday range broken lower.
Lower highs since Monday's 75,474 peak. The legs down came in NY hours after Tuesday's hot US CPI and again into Thursday's London-NY transition, with DXY above 103 and yields above 5% weighing on the pair. Friday's Asia session then broke the 71,166–72,100 Thursday range and ran to a 67,506 week low. Price is bouncing from a higher low at 68,414 but stays below the falling ema20 (70,224) and ema50 (71,769), with RSI(14) back to 31.3 from an 8.9 extreme and ATR(14) expanded to 66,187 pips. The bounce high at 69,282 caps the rebound so far, and the lower-high line from Wednesday's 74,690 high runs near the ema20.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,281.70, 70,224.18, 71,165.63
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print fits the dollar pressure behind this week's lower highs
H1 close above the 69,282 bounce high, then the ema20 near 70,224, would test the lower-high line
Failure to hold the 68,414 higher low re-exposes the 67,506 week low
Reclaiming the 71,166 range floor would undo Friday's range break
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) add risk after PPI
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, stretched and oversold · RSI 25 · price 68,708.33
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday, price below both EMAs.
Tuesday's hot CPI started the slide off the 74.7K–75.4K highs. Thursday's London-NY transition then broke 73K and set a thu low at 71165.63, and a liquidation-led Asia session drop on Friday printed the week low at 67505.66 amid ETF outflows and a firm USD. The bounce stalled at the 69281.7 bounce high, and price now holds just above the 68413.66 session low, beneath a falling ema20 at 70353.46 and ema50 at 71882.30. RSI(14) recovered to 25.4 from an 8.9 trough but remains oversold, and ATR has expanded to roughly $677 per bar.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,281.70, 70,353.46, 71,165.63
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) is the main risk to this read, followed by Bowman at 15:50 UTC
An H1 close back above the 69281.7 bounce high opens the 70K area and the ema20 near 70353
A break below the 68413.66 session low exposes the 67505.66 week low; losing it extends the lower-low sequence
The lower highs trendline and the 71165.63 thu low cap any recovery while price stays below the ema50
RSI holding above 30 on a retest of the week low would mark a bullish RSI divergence attempt
08:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a liquidation flush · RSI 24 · price 68,536.52
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday, EMAs fanned lower.
Monday's 74,000–75,470 range gave way after Tuesday's hot US CPI. The selloff then stepped lower: Thursday's London-into-NY leg reached the 71,166 Thu low, and an Asia-session long-liquidation flush on Friday hit the 67,506 week low as DXY pressed 19-month highs. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 70,538 and below EMA(50) at 72,016. RSI(14) at 23.5 is oversold after troughing at 8.9 on the low itself, so there is no divergence. ATR(14) has expanded to about $699 and the 69,282 bounce high capped the first recovery.
Support: 68,000.00, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,281.70, 70,538.09, 71,165.63
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman and Daly follow
H1 close back above the 69,282 bounce high and the 70,000 handle would mark the first higher high since the flush
EMA(20) near 70,538 is the first test of whether the lower-high sequence holds; the Thu low at 71,166 sits above it
Failure to hold the 68,000 round number exposes the 67,506 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Lower highs since Monday; Thursday's 71k–72k range broken lower.
BTC has carved lower highs since Monday's 75,474 peak. Wednesday's NY-hours rebound stalled at 74,719, Thursday's London-to-NY leg broke 73,000, and an Asia-session flush on Friday broke Thursday's 71,000–72,000 range and Thursday's low at 71,166, reaching 67,506 amid long liquidations and a 19-month-high DXY. Price sits below EMA(20) at 70,755 and EMA(50) at 72,161; RSI(14) bottomed at 8.9 and has only recovered to 26, still oversold, while ATR(14) has expanded to about $691 from roughly $404. The bounce back above the 69,000 psych is the first test of whether the flush has run its course, with the 70,000 psych and the 38.2% fib near 70,260 overhead.
Support: 69,000.00, 67,505.66
Resistance: 70,000.00, 70,754.78, 71,165.63
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) and Fed's Bowman and Daly afterwards could materially shift this read
An hourly close back below the 69,000 psych reopens the Friday low at 67,506
A reclaim of the 70,000 psych and EMA(20) at 70,755 would be the first challenge to the lower-high sequence; Thursday's low at 71,166 sits near the 50% fib of the Wed high–Fri low drop
06:03 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 9 · price 67,956.16
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Thursday low broken in Asia.
Lower highs at Monday's 75,474 and Wednesday's 74,690 framed a downtrend. It accelerated after Tuesday's hot CPI and again in Thursday's NY session toward the 71,166 Thursday low, which gave way in Asia trade today as the 19-month DXY high and 5%+ yields weighed, with BTC slicing through 70K and the 69k pivot to a 67,506 session low. Price sits about 3,000 below a steepening EMA(20) at 70,941 with RSI(14) at 8.9, deeply oversold with no bullish divergence, while ATR(14) has expanded to roughly $649 per bar.
Support: 67,505.66, 67,000.00
Resistance: 70,941.28, 71,165.63
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7.5h): a hot core print could extend the leg through the 67,506 session low toward the 67,000 round number
Rebounds capped below the 69k pivot keep the Asia-session breakdown intact; an hourly close back above it marks the first reclaim
38.2% fib of the 74,690–67,506 drop at ~70,250, then ema20 at 70,941 near the lower-highs trendline, is the first overhead test
A close above the 71,166 Thursday low would neutralise the breakdown read
Lower highs and lower lows all week; Thursday's 71.2K floor broken, 70K and 69K lost in Friday's Asia session.
BTC has set lower highs all week at 75,474 on Monday, 74,719 on Wednesday and the 72,126 lower high on Thursday. The slide accelerated in Friday's Asia session as the broken 70k and then 69K gave way, with the session low now 68,241, on liquidations, a 19-month-high dollar and 10Y yields above 5%. Price sits about 2,700 below a falling EMA(20) at 71,247, which is itself below EMA(50). ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 599, and RSI(14) at 10 is deeply oversold with no bullish divergence against the new lows.
Support: 68,240.85, 68,000.00
Resistance: 70,000.00, 71,246.77, 72,125.57
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the broken 70k at 70,000 would be the first break in the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 68,241 session low extends the slide toward the 68,000 round number
A recovery through the ema20 at 71,247 and the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday would invalidate the downtrend read; the 72,126 lower high sits above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%, core MoM 0.3%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC to follow
Lower highs and lower lows; Thursday range broken lower.
Highs have stepped lower all week from Monday's 75,474 peak. Tuesday's hot CPI print and Thursday's NY-open slide to 71,166 each pushed the move further, and in today's Asia session price broke the 71,000-72,100 consolidation and the 70,000 psych level into a 68,487 swing low as futures liquidations accelerated. Price sits well below a falling EMA(20) at 71,535 (ema20) and EMA(50) at 72,625, RSI(14) is oversold at 11 and ATR(14) has expanded to about $600 from about $390 since Thursday morning; overhead, the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday high-to-Friday low leg (~70,856) sits just under the Thursday broken low at 71,166.
Support: 68,486.58, 68,000.00
Resistance: 70,000.00, 71,165.63, 71,535.01
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; a hot core print fits the yield-driven extension scenario
An H1 close back above the 70,000 psych level would be the first reclaim of broken structure
Failure to hold the 68,487 swing low exposes the 68,000 round number
A rebound into the 71,166 broken low and the ema20 at 71,535 would retest the base of Thursday's range
Thin weekend liquidity after Fed speakers (Bowman, Daly, Jefferson) can amplify liquidation moves
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended and accelerating · RSI 16 · price 70,227.66
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 75474 high.
Lower highs from Monday's 75474 peak to Wednesday's 74719 framed the week, with the hot US CPI print breaking price down in Tuesday's NY session. The Nvidia and MSCI risk-off took out the 72630 Tue low during Thursday's NY hours, and Friday's Asia session broke the 71045–72125 range to a 69824 session low just under the $70K psych handle. Price sits below both a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50), ATR is expanding, and RSI(14) at 15.9 is oversold and printing fresh lows with price, so there is no divergence on the Wed–Fri leg.
Support: 70,000.00, 69,824.10
Resistance: 71,815.10, 72,630.01
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 69824 session low or the 70000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
An H1 close back above the 71165 Thu low reclaims the broken range floor; the ema20 at 71815 caps above that
A recovery through the 72630 Tue low and the lower highs trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC (~10h): a hot core print lifting yields could pressure $70K, a soft one could trigger a bounce
RSI turning higher while price makes a new low would flag bullish divergence on the Wed–Fri leg
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 21 · price 70,810.02
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's peak; Tue–Thu range broken lower.
BTC has printed lower highs since Monday's 75,474 peak. Tuesday's CPI beat at the NY open knocked it to 72,630, and Thursday's London-into-NY slide broke the 72,630–74,700 range on the Nvidia/MSCI risk-off and 10Y above 5%. Price is below a falling EMA(20) at 71,988 and EMA(50) at 72,885, with Thursday's 72,126 bounce marking another lower high, and the Asia session has extended to a 70,601 session low. RSI(14) at 20.5 is oversold but has held near 20 rather than pressing lower on the new low, with ATR around $470.
Support: 70,601.25
Resistance: 71,988.40, 72,125.57, 72,884.93
What it said to watch
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, with Bowman and Daly after, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 70,601 session low exposes the psych 70k level, flagged as the channel floor
Reclaiming ema20 and the 72,126 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the drop from 74,690 (~72,163), would break the lower-high sequence
ema50 at 72,885 caps any recovery while the EMA slope stays negative
Lower highs and lower lows; overnight 71,166–72,126 box broken lower.
BTC has carved lower highs all week, at 75,474 Monday and 74,690 Wednesday. Thursday's NY-session leg broke the post-CPI low at 72,630, with tech risk-off after Huang's Nvidia exit and 10Y yields above 5% the cited drivers. Price sits below EMA(20) at 72,107 and EMA(50) at 72,968, and the early Asia session pushed out of the overnight box to a week low at 70,601. RSI(14) at 22.1 is oversold but holding above Thursday's 19.4 trough on this lower low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR(14) has eased from its Thursday peak to 46,956 pips.
Support: 70,601.25, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,165.63, 72,106.97, 72,630.01
What it said to watch
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 70,000 psych level in play
H1 close back above Thursday's prior low at 71,166 would mark the overnight break lower as a false break
Failure to hold the week low at 70,601 extends the lower-low sequence toward 70,000
A recovery to the ema20 at 72,107, near the 38.2% fib of the week drop, is the first test of the lower highs; the cpi low at 72,630 sits just above
Lower highs and lower lows; basing just above the week low.
Lower highs at Monday's 75,474 and Wednesday's 74,719 have set the week's tone. Tuesday's hot CPI knocked BTC to 72,630, and Thursday's Nvidia-CEO selloff broke that Tuesday low between London midday and the NY open. Price is now basing just above the 71,046 week low, below a falling EMA(20) at 72,219 and EMA(50) at 73,046, with RSI(14) oversold at 25.2 but reading higher than at the breakdown despite a marginally lower close, a tentative bullish divergence, while ATR eases from its breakdown peak and the overnight recovery stalled at the 72,126 bounce high.
Support: 71,045.76, 70,000.00
Resistance: 72,125.57, 72,218.79, 72,630.01
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 71,046 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the $70,000 psych level
Recovery through the 72,126 bounce high and the ema20 at 72,219 would put the Tuesday low at 72,630 in play as resistance
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print would follow Tuesday's CPI beat
Bullish divergence is void if RSI(14) slips back below its 19.4 breakdown reading alongside a new price low
H1 close above the lower highs trendline would break the week's descending structure