Post-NY selloff rebound capped near 61.8% retrace, tight range 81,487–81,854.
Asia and London printed lower highs. NY then sold from the 82,712 ny high to an 80,264 day low as the hawkish-Fed and firm-USD backdrop weighed. The rebound has stalled just above the 61.8% selloff fib, and since NY close price has held in a 81,487–81,854 range, pinned at the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 53.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,854 range top opens the 82,000 round number
Loss of the 81,487 range low exposes the 81,193 flip level, then the 80,264 day low
Rejection at the 61.8% selloff fib keeps the intraday lower-high sequence intact
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Post-selloff range 81490–81850 under broken Asian low.
London selling extended through NY, breaking the Asian low at 82226 and printing a session low at 80264 against a hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop. The rebound has stalled into an 81490–81850 range, capped near the 61.8% retrace of the 82710 swing high to 80264 leg, with RSI(14) neutral around 56 at the start of the Asia session.
Support: 81,487.26, 80,263.61
Resistance: 81,853.86, 82,226.45
What it said to watch
Close above the 81854 range high (61.8% fib) opens the path back to the 82226 Asian low
Loss of the 81487 range low exposes the 38.2 fib near 81200, then the 80264 session low
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; Friday's UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
23:19 UTC
Rebound off NY low, stalling · RSI 58 · price 81,744.98
Consolidation 81490–81850 between 50% and 61.8% fib of the NY drop.
The NY session breakdown from 82710 ran to an 80264 day low before a sharp rebound. After NY close, the recovery has flattened into a 81490–81850 box between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of that NY drop. Price is above EMA20 (~81630) and just under EMA50 (~81800), RSI(14) is near 58, and there is no BTC-specific catalyst against the hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop.
Support: 81,487.26, 81,310.00, 80,263.61
Resistance: 81,853.86, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 81854 session high clears the 61.8% retracement and the box top, with the 82000 round number next above
Loss of the 81487 swing low (50% retracement) exposes the 81310 range base, with the 80264 day low below that
Thin Asian session liquidity may keep price inside the 81490–81850 box
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:05 UTC
Recovery leg inside a larger intraday decline · RSI 61 · price 81,800.91
Higher highs and higher lows off the 80,264 day low, now at the 61.8% fib.
The NY-session slide from the 82,712 lower high ran to a day low at 80,264, extending as the weak 30Y auction kept risk appetite fragile. Since then BTC has ground higher in a higher-high/higher-low chain along a recovery trendline. The swing low at 81,487 held on the 50% fib, and price is now testing the 61.8% retracement just under the 81,854 session high as the after-NY lull begins, RSI(14) near 61.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,854 session high and the 82,000 round number extends the recovery toward the 82,712 lower high
Break of the recovery trendline and the 81,487 swing low ends the higher-low chain; the 38.2% fib at 81,193 is next, then the day low at 80,264
Rejection at the 61.8% fib keeps the move a retracement of the drop rather than a reversal
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could reset the read via USD and yields
22:49 UTC
Recovering after NY-session selloff · RSI 63 · price 81,825.89
Higher lows off 80264 swing low, testing 61.8% fib.
BTC broke down during NY hours from the 82712 swing high to an 80264 swing low as the firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop weighed, with no BTC-specific news behind the move. Since then price has built higher lows at 81309 and 81487 and is pressing the 81838 session high, just above the 61.8% fib of the drop and into the base of the pre-breakdown range.
Support: 81,487.26, 81,309.46, 80,263.61
Resistance: 81,837.87, 82,000.00, 82,711.91
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 81487 higher low breaks the recovery sequence and the rising lows trendline
Acceptance above the 81838 session high and the 82000 round number opens the path toward the 82712 swing high
Loss of the 81309 pullback low exposes the 80264 swing low
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Recovering after NY flush, stalling at resistance · RSI 64 · price 81,717.01
Higher lows off 80264, capped at 81777 in a tight late-session range.
The 15:15 UTC NY-session flush broke the 81762 London low and ran to the 80264 day low. The rebound since 18:15 UTC has held a chain of rising lows but stalled at the 61.8% fib of the 82712 pre-drop high to day-low move (81777), which is also a retest of that broken London low. Price is ranging 81487–81777 into the post-NY quiet, with the range low sitting on the 50% retrace; there's no BTC-specific news and firm USD after hawkish Fed minutes keeps the tape heavy.
Support: 81,487.00, 81,310.00, 80,264.00
Resistance: 81,777.00, 82,712.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 81777 reopens the 82712 pre-drop high
Break of the 81487 range low and the rising-lows trendline puts the 81310 rally base and 80264 day low back in focus
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Downtrend, recovery leg stalling · RSI 59 · price 81,621.11
Lower highs all session; post-flush bounce capped at broken low, tight range below.
NY session broke the 81762 low and flushed to the 80264 swing low by 17:15 UTC. That extended the lower highs from the 83597 Asian high, with no BTC-specific driver and a hawkish-Fed macro backdrop. The recovery stalled with a rejection at 81777, the broken low, and price is now compressing above the 81487 range low after NY close.
Support: 81,487.26, 81,193.58, 80,263.61
Resistance: 81,776.94, 82,093.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81777 broken low reopens the 82094 breakdown area, near where the lower highs trendline now sits
Loss of the 81487 range low exposes the fib 38.2 at ~81194 on the recovery fib; failure there points back to the 80264 swing low
Asia session typically thin; range persisting between 81487 and 81777 keeps the read neutral-to-heavy
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:49 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a post-selloff consolidation · RSI 48 · price 81,552.19
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; late-NY box between 81,510 and 81,777.
London broke the asian low at 82,226. NY then flushed from the 82,712 lower high to the 80,264 NY low against a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop. The rebound was rejected at the 61.8% retracement of the NY selloff (fib 61.8, 81,777), and late-NY trade is now boxed between the 81,510 range low and that level, sitting just above the 50% mark with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,510 range low exposes fib 38.2 at 81,199, then the NY low at 80,264
Close above fib 61.8 at 81,777 brings the former asian low at 82,226 into play as overhead resistance
Recapture of the 82,712 lower high would break the intraday lower-high sequence
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; NY low at 80264, bounce capped at fib 61.8.
BTC slid through the Asian range low (82226) late in London, then dropped from the 82712 swing high in NY to an 80264 day low. That slide came against fragile risk appetite and firm Fed hike pricing after the minutes. The bounce from 80264 stalled at 81777, the fib 61.8 and the former 81762 NY low, and price is now drifting back toward the 81510 swing low as NY closes.
Support: 81,510.00, 81,199.00, 80,264.00
Resistance: 81,777.00, 82,000.00, 82,712.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81777 (fib 61.8) opens the 82000 psych level, with the 82712 swing high beyond
Failure to hold the 81510 swing low exposes fib 38.2 at 81199, then the 80264 day low
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London; NY low 80264 then half-retrace, now tight post-NY range.
Late London broke below the Asian low at 82226. NY then flushed to the NY low at 80264 before a sharp bounce retraced exactly to the fib 50% at 81777. After NY close, price is compressing between that cap and the 81510 minor low, with no BTC-specific driver and the hawkish Fed-minutes backdrop still in place.
Support: 81,510.24, 81,418.27, 80,263.61
Resistance: 81,776.94, 81,921.78, 82,226.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 50% at 81777 exposes the London low at 81922, then the Asian low at 82226 as broken-range resistance
Failure to hold the 81510 minor low and the fib 38.2 at 81418 puts the NY low at 80264 back in focus
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Post-NY V-recovery from 80264 day low, capped at 61.8% fib.
The NY session broke the 81762 London low and slid to the 80264 day low against a hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop. The rebound since 18:15 UTC has stalled at 81777, where the 61.8% fib of the 82712–80264 leg meets the broken London low and EMA50, with a higher low at 81576 so far holding on the recovery line.
Support: 81,576.00, 81,194.00, 80,264.00
Resistance: 81,777.00, 82,712.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81777 (61.8% fib) reclaims the broken London low and exposes the 82712 swing high
Loss of the 81576 higher low and the recovery line puts the 38.2% fib at 81194 back in play
Break below the 80264 day low resumes the NY-session downtrend
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; higher-low recovery from 80,264 capped at the 61.8% fib.
The Asian low at 82,226 gave way in London. NY made a lower high at 82,712, then extended to a session low of 80,264. The sharp reversal at 18:15 UTC has built higher lows along a rising line but stalled at 81,777, the 61.8% fib of that leg, with EMA50 just overhead near 81,850. The hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop frames the selling, and there is no fresh BTC-specific catalyst.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81,777 (61.8% fib) and EMA50 opens a retest of the former asian low at 82,226
Break of the rising line and the 81,310 pullback low would mark the bounce as corrective and expose the 80,264 session low
Acceptance back above the 82,712 lower high would negate the NY downtrend structure
Late NY, after London close: thin conditions tend to keep the session range intact into the Asia session
Lower highs through the session; bounce from 80,264 testing 61.8% fib.
The NY session flush from the 82,712 swing high reached a session low of 80,264, with a hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop weighing. The late-NY recovery stalled at 81,777, where the 61.8% fib meets the old 13:30 UTC low and EMA50, and the next bar rejected. A higher low at 81,310 underpins the bounce, RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about $270 per bar.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81,777 (61.8% fib) puts the 82,094 breakdown level back in play
Failure to hold the 81,310 higher low exposes the 80,264 session low
A push through the lower highs line near 82,270 and the 82,712 swing high would break the intraday downtrend read
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The Asian range low at 82226 gave way during London, and NY extended the slide from the 82712 NY high to an 80264 NY low. The 18:15 UTC impulse started a higher-low grind that now tests the 61.8% fib of that leg at 81777, just under EMA50. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, and the backdrop stays hawkish-Fed with a firm USD.
Support: 81,488.00, 81,310.00, 80,264.00
Resistance: 81,777.00, 82,095.00, 82,712.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81777 (61.8% fib) and EMA50 reopens the 82095 breakdown area
Loss of the 81488 50% fib and the 81310 swing hl breaks the higher-low sequence, re-exposing the 80264 ny low
Rejection at 81777 keeps the rebound a retest within the intraday downtrend
Fri 14:00 UTC UMich sentiment plus inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs all day; short HH/HL chain since 80264 low.
BTC slipped through the Asian low at 82226 late in London, then accelerated lower in NY from the 82093 breakdown to a session low at 80264, against a hawkish-Fed and firm-USD backdrop. A sharp late-NY impulse reclaimed 81300 (breakout) and price is now retesting the 81762 prior low, which sits at the fib 61.8 of the 82712–80264 drop, with the fib 50 at 81488 just below.
Support: 81,488.00, 81,300.00, 80,264.00
Resistance: 81,762.00, 82,093.00, 82,226.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81762 prior low (fib 61.8) opens the 82093 breakdown and 82226 Asian low
Loss of the fib 50 at 81488 and then the 81300 breakout puts the 80264 session low back in play
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; Fri UMich sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
19:49 UTC
Intraday downtrend, late-NY rebound in play · RSI 52 · price 81,589.15
Lower highs from 82712 ny high; small higher-low sequence off 80264 session low.
London broke the Asian range low at 82226, and NY failed at the 82712 ny high before the slide ran to an 80264 session low. The move fits a firmer USD after hawkish FOMC minutes. The late-NY rebound printed a higher low at 80396 and has retraced into the 50–61.8% fib zone, capped so far at the 81705 bounce high, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 81,194.00, 80,396.00, 80,264.00
Resistance: 81,705.00, 82,094.00, 82,712.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81705 bounce high and the 61.8% fib (~81777) opens the 82094 breakdown point
Loss of the 81194 pullback low and the bounce trendline puts the 80396 higher low and 80264 session low back in focus
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read via USD and yields
NY-session breakdown to 80,264, now retracing toward broken prior low.
NY-session selling from the 82,712 swing high broke the 81,762 prior low and ran to an 80,264 session low. A firm USD after the claims beat and hawkish FOMC minutes frames the drop. The rebound from the 80,656 base is holding rising rebound support and has reached the 50% fib near 81,590, with RSI(14) near 60 and the prior low aligned with the 61.8% fib overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,762 prior low (61.8% fib) puts the 82,093 breakdown level and then the 82,712 swing high in view
Loss of 81,198 (38.2% fib) and a break of rebound support re-expose the 80,656 rebound base and the 80,264 session low
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift USD and this read
Lower highs from 83,286; NY low 80,264, bounce capped near 50% fib.
The NY-hours selloff from the 82,712 lower high broke the 81,762 prior low and ran to an 80,264 session low. The 18:15 UTC impulse reclaimed the 38.2% fib, and price is now flat just above EMA20, stalling under the 81,497 bounce high at the 50% retracement. Firm USD after hawkish FOMC minutes is the backdrop, with no fresh BTC-specific news.
What it said to watch
Close above the 81,497 bounce high and 50% fib exposes the 81,762 prior low near the 61.8%
Loss of the 81,194 minor low (38.2% fib) puts the 80,264 session low back in play
Structure stays a downtrend while price holds below the 82,712 lower high
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations are the next USD catalyst; a hot print would firm the dollar
Lower highs and lows since London; corrective bounce into fib 50%.
London broke below the Asian range low, and the decline extended after the 197K jobless claims beat. The 15:00 UTC NY leg took price to a session low at 80264. A single +635 bar off the bounce base has lifted price to 81431, just under the fib 50% of the 82712→80264 leg. Price is holding above EMA20 but stays below the lower-high trendline.
Support: 81,199.00, 80,656.00, 80,264.00
Resistance: 81,431.00, 81,762.00, 82,145.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the bounce high at 81431 opens the ny open low at 81762, which coincides with the fib 61.8%
Rejection at 81431 and a loss of fib 38.2 at 81199 points back to the bounce base at 80656
Failure to hold the session low at 80264 extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 82145 breakdown level and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke; corrective bounce off the session low.
With no BTC-specific news and a hawkish-Fed, risk-off backdrop, BTC lost the Asian range low during London-NY, then broke down from 82,100 in NY to an 80,264 session low. A late-NY impulse lifted price back above the ema20 at ~81,330 to a bounce high at 81,430, just under the 50% retrace of the NY drop near 81,490. The chain of lower highs remains intact below the 82,710 lower high.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 81,430 bounce high and the 50% retrace near 81,490 opens the path to the 82,100 breakdown area
A close back below the ema20 at ~81,330 puts the 80,656 impulse base and the 80,264 session low back in focus
The lower-high trendline from London, now near 82,400 and below the 82,710 lower high, caps the sequence while it holds
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range; retracing the NY leg.
London broke the 82,226 Asian range low, and NY hours extended the slide to an 80,264 session low as Treasury yields pressed toward 2002 highs and the 30Y auction cleared at 5.62%. The lower-highs sequence is intact. The 18:15 UTC bounce off the 80,656 bounce base has reached the 38.2% fib of the selloff near 81,200, with RSI(14) at 44 and price just under EMA20. The 81,762 prior low lines up with the 61.8% retracement.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,339 bounce high opens the 81,762 prior low / 61.8% fib zone
Rejection at the prior low keeps the move a corrective bounce inside the downtrend
Failure to hold the 80,656 bounce base puts the 80,264 session low back in play for a lower-low
A break above the 82,712 lower high ends the lower-highs sequence
Further yield or Fedspeak headlines late in NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken; small base above session low.
London broke the Asian range low near 82,226, and NY extended the slide. A 15:00 UTC drop from the failed 82,712 bounce ran to an 80,264 session low as the hawkish-Fed, high-yield backdrop weighed. Late NY is basing in an 80,264–80,800 band below EMA20, with the 81,320 lower high capping the chain of lower highs.
What it said to watch
A close above the 80,800 micro high, then the 81,320 lower high, breaks the lower-high chain; the 81,760 ny open low aligns with the 61.8% of the down-leg fib
Failure to hold the 80,264 session low exposes the 80,000 round number
Michigan sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:05 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 29 · price 80,620.22
Lower highs and lower lows since London; tight base 80264–80800 late NY.
London broke the Asian range low at 82226. The NY 15:00 UTC leg then cleared the 81762 prior low and printed a session low at 80264, lower highs intact against a firm-USD, hawkish-minutes backdrop. Price is now basing between 80264 and 80800 with RSI(14) near 29, and bounces are stalling at the 80800 bounce cap, under the 23.6% of the 15:00 drop fib.
Support: 80,263.61, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,800.00, 81,761.96
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80800 bounce cap opens the 38.2% of the 15:00 drop fib near 81200 and the 81320 lower high
Failure to hold the 80264 session low exposes the 80000 psych level
Reclaim of the 81762 prior low would break the lower-high sequence
Michigan sentiment and UoM inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:49 UTC
Downtrend, stretched near lows · RSI 29 · price 80,745.08
Lower highs and lower lows since London; Asian range low broken.
The 82,226 Asian range low broke during London. The NY-hours bounce to 82,712 was then sold hard, leaving a chain of lower highs down to a session low at 80,264, with the firm USD on hawkish-Fed pricing as the backdrop. Price is now basing just above that low, capped at the 80,800 minor high, with RSI(14) at about 29: stretched but not extreme.
What it said to watch
Musalem (17:40 UTC, under way) signalling a near-term hike or patience could extend or reverse the move via USD and yields
Failure to hold the 80,264 session low exposes the 80,000 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 80,800 minor high and the 81,199 fib 38.2% of the 82,712–80,264 leg marks the first higher high since the NY selloff; 81,319 swing high sits above
Reclaim of the 81,762 ny open low would undercut the intraday downtrend read
17:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 26 · price 80,652.18
Lower highs and lower lows since the 83,286 London-open high.
The slide accelerated from 15:00 UTC, just after Kashkari's 14:40 UTC slot, with the USD firm on hawkish FOMC minutes. The 15:15 UTC bar broke the 81,762 prior low and extended to a session low at 80,264. Lower highs at 82,712 and 81,319 define the move, RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme, and price is holding just above the session low into the NY afternoon.
What it said to watch
Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
An M15 close above the 81,319 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 81,762 prior low sits at the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 80,264 session low exposes the 80,000 round number
Lower highs and lower lows; broke below prior low, bounce capped near 38.2% fib.
Lower highs at 83286, the 82712 lower high and the 81319 swing high define the slide. The NY-session break below the 81762 prior low began at the 15:00 UTC bar, shortly after Kashkari's 14:40 UTC slot, with USD firm on the hawkish FOMC minutes. That leg ran to an 80554 session low, well beneath the 82226 Asian low, and the bounce stalled at the swing high near the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 80,554.29, 80,000.00
Resistance: 81,319.45, 81,761.96, 82,711.91
What it said to watch
Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Failure to hold the 80554 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 80000 round number
M15 close above the 81319 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence, putting the 81762 prior low and the 61.8% fib near 81890 in play
Reclaim of the 82712 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
17:06 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY session · RSI 29 · price 80,648.18
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range low broken.
London broke below the Asian range low at 82,226. NY extended the move, and the slide from the 82,712 swing high after Kashkari's 14:40 UTC remarks cleared the 81,762 NY open low, printing a fresh session low at 80,648. Lower highs at 82,712 and 81,319 define the sequence, RSI(14) sits near 29, and the USD is firm on the hawkish FOMC minutes.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 81,319 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 81,762 NY open low the next overhead reference
Failure to hold the 80,648 session low leaves the 80,000 round number as the next reference
Recovery above the 82,712 swing high negates the NY downtrend structure; the 50% swing high fib retrace sits near 81,680
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; tight base 80667–81415 after the NY flush.
London broke below the Asian range low at 82226. NY open probed 81762, and the bounce failed at the 82712 swing high. The leg lower that followed coincided with Kashkari's remarks and a firm USD, printing an 80667 session low; price is now basing below the 81415 lower high with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 81,000.00, 80,667.16
Resistance: 81,415.34, 81,761.96, 82,711.91
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81415 lower high, near the 38.2% of the selloff fib, opens a retest of the 81762 ny open low
Loss of the 81000 round number re-exposes the 80667 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Downtrend structure only changes on a reclaim of the 82712 swing high and the lower-highs trendline
Musalem at 17:40 UTC could move yields and USD and materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range high; NY-hours breakdown below the prior low.
After a lower high at 82,712, BTC broke the 81,762 prior low during NY hours. A 950-point 15:15 UTC bar led the move to an 80,667 session low, with a firm USD on the hawkish FOMC minutes weighing. The bounce is stalling below the 81,415 retrace high and the fib 38.2% near 81,450. RSI(14) is near 33.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,415 retrace high and fib 38.2% (~81,450) opens a retest of the 81,762 prior low from below
Break of the 80,667 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 80,000 round number
Reclaim of the lower highs trendline and the 82,712 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
Musalem at 17:40 UTC on hike timing could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
16:18 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating in NY session · RSI 30 · price 80,912.89
Lower highs and lower lows, NY broke below Asian and London lows.
The NY session extended the London slide below the 82226 Asian low. A bounce to a lower high at 82712 around Kashkari's 14:40 UTC remarks was sold. The 15:00 UTC breakdown bar cut through the 81762 prior low, the NY-open low, to a session low at 80667, with RSI(14) near 29 as a firm USD on hawkish FOMC minutes weighs.
Support: 80,667.16, 80,000.00
Resistance: 81,200.00, 81,762.00, 82,711.91
What it said to watch
Hold below the 81200 breakdown area keeps the lower-low sequence intact; reclaiming it exposes the 38.2% fib near 81450
A close back above the 81762 prior low would stall the impulse read
Loss of the 80667 session low leaves the 80000 round number as the next reference
A move above the 82712 lower high breaks the intraday sequence
Musalem at 17:40 UTC; a hawkish tone could extend the USD-driven move
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; Asian range broken to the downside.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 83,286 London-open high. It broke the Asian range low near 82,226 at midday and then the 81,762 NY open low on the 15:00 UTC leg after Kashkari's appearance, a move consistent with the firm USD and hawkish-minutes backdrop. The sell leg tagged a session low at 80,817, and price is holding just above it with RSI(14) near 30.
What it said to watch
A break below the 80,817 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 80,000 round number
A reclaim of the 81,400 bounce cap and the 81,762 NY open low (50% of the sell leg) would challenge the downtrend read
A close above the 82,712 lower high invalidates the lower-highs trendline
Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
15:48 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg in NY session · RSI 29 · price 81,127.66
Lower highs and lower lows since London high at 83286.
BTC has carved a lower-high/lower-low chain off the 83286 London high, with the NY session breaking the 81762 broken low and extending to an 80817 session low, while USD stays firm on hawkish FOMC minutes. RSI(14) near 29 is oversold after the leg, and price is holding just above the 81000 round number.
Support: 81,000.00, 80,817.00
Resistance: 81,762.00, 82,712.00, 83,286.00
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 81762 broken low, also the fib 50% of the last leg, would signal the breakdown is being retraced
Loss of the 80817 session low extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 82712 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending structure
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
15:33 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 31 · price 81,255.52
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY, breakdown below prior low.
Price has printed a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence through London and NY. The 15:00 UTC leg flushed through the 81762 prior low to a session low near 81167, shortly after Kashkari's 14:40 UTC slot and against a firm USD on hawkish FOMC minutes. RSI(14) is near 31, not yet stretched, and the 82712 lower high sits on the descending lower-high line.
Support: 81,166.61, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,761.96, 82,711.91
What it said to watch
A close back above the 81762 prior low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 81167 session low exposes the 81000 round number
An M15 close above the 82712 lower high and the lower-high line invalidates the downtrend read
Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
LH/LL chain since London high; NY bounce capped at 61.8% fib.
London broke the Asian low at 82,226 and NY set a session low at 81,762. The bounce stalled at the 82,712 swing high, almost exactly the 61.8% fib of the London high-to-low leg, extending the lower-highs sequence. The 14:30 UTC bar dropped about 530 points around Kashkari's remarks, with USD firm on the hawkish FOMC minutes; price is now pressing the 82,000 psych level, RSI(14) near 40.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,000 psych level puts the 81,762 session low back in play; a close below it extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close back above the 82,226 asian low eases the downside structure
A close above the 82,712 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and voids the downtrend read toward the 83,286 london high
Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift USD and yields and move this read
Lower highs intact; Asian low reclaimed after NY-open flush.
The lower-high sequence from 83,597 is intact. The NY open broke the Asian low at 82,226 and printed 81,762, then reclaimed it in a false break, with the rebound stalling at the 61.8% fib near 82,712. A firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes frames the tape; RSI(14) is neutral near 49, with price between EMA20 (~82,530) and EMA50.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 82,444 swing low and the Asian low at 82,226 reopens the NY low at 81,762
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 82,712 and the descending trendline near 82,940 puts the 83,197 lower high and 83,286 London high in play
Musalem at 17:40 UTC: explicit backing for another hike, with yields and the USD firming, could cap the rebound
Lower highs and lower lows since yesterday's 83,690 peak; NY bounce capped at 61.8% fib.
London broke below the Asian low at 82,226. The NY open extended the lower-low chain to the 81,762 NY low with the USD firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes, before a roughly $940 bounce. That bounce met rejection at the 82,703 bounce high, just past the 61.8% fib, and price is now sitting on EMA20 near the 50% fib at 82,480, with RSI(14) neutral at ~48.
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,703 bounce high and the descending trendline near 83,000 would challenge the lower-high sequence, with the 83,197 swing high next
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 82,480, then the 82,198 swing low, puts the 81,762 NY low back in play
Kashkari (14:40 UTC, now) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) on another hike could move USD and yields enough to shift this read
14:33 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound testing lower-high zone · RSI 49 · price 82,621.01
Lower highs/lower lows from 83197; descending trendline broken on rebound.
London broke the Asian low at 82226. Hawkish-Fed macro pressure and a firm claims print saw NY extend the lower-low chain to an 81762 session low before a sharp rebound reclaimed the Asian low and cleared the descending trendline from the London high. Price is stalling at the 61.8% fib near the 82672 bounce high, with RSI(14) back near 49.
Support: 82,226.00, 81,762.00
Resistance: 82,672.00, 83,197.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82672 bounce high and the 61.8% fib opens the path toward the 83197 london high
Rejection at the 61.8% fib and a close back below the 82226 asian low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 81762 session low
Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) speak this session; explicit hike backing could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; rebound testing the falling trendline.
London broke the 82,226 Asian low and extended a lower-high, lower-low chain into an 81,762 session low at the NY open, with hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD as the backdrop. A sharp rejection of that low has lifted price back to the 50% retrace of the selloff near 82,480, pressing the falling trendline just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 46.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,615 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 61.8% retrace near 82,650, then the 83,197 swing high
Slip back below the 82,226 Asian low puts the 81,762 session low back in play
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
14:05 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off NY low · RSI 36 · price 82,217.46
Lower highs / lower lows since 09:30 UTC; Asian low broken.
Lower-high chain from 83197 at 09:30 UTC, capped by the falling trendline. London took out the Asian low at 82226, and the first NY hour swept to an 81762 NY low before a bounce to retest that broken Asian low from below. RSI(14) ~36, price below both EMAs, with hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD keeping the tape heavy.
Support: 82,000.00, 81,761.96
Resistance: 82,226.45, 82,615.02, 83,197.38
What it said to watch
Kashkari 14:40 UTC, then Musalem 17:40 UTC; hike-supportive remarks could extend the move.
M15 close back above the 82226 Asian low turns the sweep into a reclaim; otherwise the level is acting as resistance.
Close above the 82615 swing high (near the 61.8% fib) breaks the trendline and the lower-high chain.
Loss of the 82000 round number and then the 81762 NY low confirms another lower low.
13:48 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 24 · price 81,778.94
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open high; Asian low broken.
London broke below the 82,226 asian low and early NY extended to a fresh session low at 81,762. The chain of lower highs from 83,286 to 82,615 is intact, with RSI(14) near 24 oversold as the firm USD after hawkish FOMC minutes and the 197K claims beat weighs.
What it said to watch
Holding below the 81,922 prior low keeps the lower-low chain intact; a reclaim of the 82,226 asian low would neutralise the break
M15 close above the 82,615 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Acceptance below the 81,762 session low exposes the 81,500 round number
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since London range floor broke at 10:15 UTC.
London lost its 82,806 range floor below the 83,197 range top. Price then printed a session low at 81,922 after the 197K claims beat firmed USD. The first-hour NY bounce stalled at a 82,615 lower high, leaving price between that cap and the 82,198 swing low with RSI(14) near 33.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,615 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the LH/LL sequence
Reclaim of the 82,806 range floor puts the 83,197 range top and 50–61.8% of the selloff fib in play
Failure to hold the 82,198 swing low exposes the 81,922 session low
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian low swept, then reclaimed.
London faded from the 83,286 high in a lower-high sequence under a falling trendline. Around the claims beat, the selling swept the Asian low at 82,226 to a 81,922 session low before closing back above it. Price is now bouncing into the 38.2–50% fib of the 83,197–81,922 leg early in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 36 and firm USD after hawkish FOMC minutes as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the Asian low at 82,226 reopens the 81,922 session low
M15 close above the 82,611 swing high and the 61.8% fib at 82,710 brings the falling trendline and the 83,197 lower high into play
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian low broken.
London stair-stepped lower from the 83286 London high, and the 82651 swing high and 82481 lower high capped each bounce. Price broke the 82226 Asian low and wicked to an 81922 session low in the first NY bars after the 197K jobless claims beat, against a firm USD on hawkish FOMC minutes. RSI(14) is near 29, and price is pinned at the old Asian low just above the 82000 round number.
Support: 82,000.00, 81,921.78
Resistance: 82,481.17, 82,650.98, 83,286.28
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82481 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 82000 round number and the 81922 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Reclaim of the 82651 swing high puts the descending trendline under test
LH/LL chain from early London; overnight low broken at 12:00 UTC.
Lower highs from the 83,286 london high have pushed price through the overnight 82,226 low, printing a session low at 82,198 at 12:00 UTC. The 197K claims beat brought no relief. RSI(14) sits near 27 ahead of the NY open, and supply is capping rallies at the 82,651 lower high, close to the 38.2% fib of the London leg.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,198 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,000 round number
Recovery above the 82,651 lower high (38.2% fib) breaks the LH sequence
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read via USD/yields
Lower-high chain from the London high; Asian low marginally swept.
Lower highs since the 83,286 London high. Late London undercut the Asian low at 82,226 to a session low of 82,198, with little follow-through yet. RSI(14) sits near 37 with price below both EMAs as the dollar holds firm on hike pricing into the NY open.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,198 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,000 round number
Recovery above the 82,651 lower high (near the fib 38.2% at ~82,614) breaks the lower-high sequence
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, actual not yet in feed) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
12:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 32 · price 82,381.28
London faded from the 83,286 London high and printed a fresh session low at 82,198 at 12:00 UTC, edging just below the 82,226 Asian low before closing back above it. Each bounce has stalled at a lower high, the latest at 82,651 near the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) is around 32, soft but not oversold. Price is below EMA20/50 heading into US data, against a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop.
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) lands in the next bar and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 82,198 session low extends the lower-low chain and opens the 82,000 round number
A recovery through the 82,651 lower high (38.2% fib zone) breaks the London lower-high sequence; the 83,286 London high sits above
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC during NY hours is a second risk point for USD direction
Lower highs since 83,669; London leg down, shallow bounce.
London sold off from the 83,197 london high to the 82,309 london low. The bounce was rejected at the 82,651 bounce high, right at the 38.2% retrace of the London drop. Lower highs have held since yesterday's 83,669, and price now sits just above the 82,226 asia low ahead of US claims, with a firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 82,226 asia low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 82,651 bounce high puts the 83,197 london high and the lower-high line back in focus
Close above the 83,286 swing high breaks the lower-high structure
Lower highs since London high; double test of Asian low area.
London faded from its 83,286 high through a 83,197 lower high to an 82,309 low at 11:00 UTC. That low sits just above the 82,226 Asian low. The current bounce is stalling near the 38.2% of that drop, with EMA20 and the 82,850 breakdown level overhead and USD firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes.
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read ahead of NY open
Close back above the 82,850 breakdown level (61.8% fib) reopens the 83,197 lower high
Close above the 83,286 London high breaks the lower-high trendline and turns the Asian low retest into a base
Failure to hold the 82,309 London low and 82,226 Asian low confirms a lower low
Lower highs since 83,669; London range broken lower.
London broke below the 82,806 range floor and printed an 82,309 london low, holding just above the 82,226 asian low. Price is bouncing with RSI(14) near 37. The descending trendline of lower highs from 83,669 is intact, with hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD in the background.
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read; Kashkari speaks at 14:40 UTC
An M15 close back above the 82,806 range floor (50% retrace of the London leg) puts the London break in question
Failure to hold the 82,309 london low and the 82,226 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
The descending trendline caps near 83,140; the 83,197 lower high and 83,286 london high sit above it
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into US data · RSI 29 · price 82,434.22
Lower highs and lower lows through London.
London capped at 83,286 (london high), then set a lower high at 83,197 and broke the 82,806 prior low, printing a new session low at 82,309 with RSI(14) near 29. Firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes is the backdrop, and price now sits just above the 82,226 asian low, which was swept and bought at 04:15 UTC.
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Close below the 82,226 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 82,806 prior low would mark the London break as a false break
Close above the 83,197 lower high and the descending trendline negates the London downtrend
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC is a second risk point during NY hours
Lower high at 83197 below London high 83286; London range floor 82806 broken.
The Asia session sweep to the 82226 Asian low recovered to the 83286 London high, but the 83197 lower high capped price. Late London broke the 82806 range floor and printed a new London low at 82591, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs. Hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD are the backdrop, with no crypto-specific driver.
Support: 82,591.04, 82,493.15, 82,226.45
Resistance: 82,805.81, 83,197.38, 83,286.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82806 range floor negates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 82493 swing low exposes the 82226 Asian low
Only a reclaim of the 83197 lower high and the 83286 London high would break the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read; Kashkari speaks 14:40 UTC
Lower-high sequence under a falling trendline; lows holding above the 82493 swing low.
Highs have stepped lower since the 83597 Asian high. London capped at the 83286 london high, then a second rejection at the 83197 lower high preceded a ~$460 drop to a new session low at 82619. Price sits in the lower half of the Asian range, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40, as hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD weigh ahead of NY.
Support: 82,619.01, 82,493.15, 82,226.45
Resistance: 83,197.38, 83,286.28, 83,596.94
What it said to watch
Close below the 82619 session low and the 82493 swing low exposes the 82226 asian low
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 83197 lower high breaks the sequence; the 83286 london high is next above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 83597; London broke below 82806 morning low.
London faded from the 83286 london high and was rejected again at the 83197 lower high. It then printed a fresh session low at 82744, undercutting the 82806 morning low, and is holding near the 50% retrace of the Asian low–London high leg. RSI(14) is around 40 with price below EMA20 and EMA50, while the hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD keep pressure on the move.
Support: 82,743.88, 82,493.15, 82,226.45
Resistance: 83,000.00, 83,197.38, 83,286.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82744 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82493 swing low
Failure to hold 82493 exposes the 82226 asian low and the full retrace of the London leg
Recovery above the 83000 round number and the 83197 lower high breaks the lower-high line
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read; Kashkari speaks 14:40 UTC
10:17 UTC
Range-bound after Asia selloff and London rebound · RSI 53 · price 83,039.55
Lower high 83,197 vs higher low 82,805, compressing.
The Asia session swept down to the 82,226 asia low. That set up a London-open rally to the 83,286 london high. The pullback held the 82,805 london low near the 38.2–50% fib of that move, and a lower high at 83,197 now has price compressing around the EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 53. With no crypto-specific flow, hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD are the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,197 lower high and 83,286 london high breaks the compression; the 83,597 asia high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 82,805 london low and higher low line exposes the 82,493 swing low and the 82,226 asia low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC: hike-leaning remarks via USD strength are the next macro input
Higher lows from 82,226 against lower highs below 83,286.
The Asian session sell-off from 83,597 to 82,226 has been retraced past its 61.8% fib at 83,073, and London has printed higher lows at 82,493 and 82,806. Upside is capped by a lower high at 83,197 under the 83,286 session high. Price is compressing mid-range, with hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD keeping the move contained ahead of US claims.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,286 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 83,597 Asian high
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 83,073, then the 82,806 London low, negates the higher-low chain and exposes the 82,226 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Asian low, capped below London high.
The Asia session slide bottomed at the 82,226 Asian low. London open then lifted price to a 83,286 London high, and the pullback held 82,806, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that leg, leaving a higher low. Price now sits mid-range on the EMA50 with RSI(14) near 54, against a USD-firm tone after the hawkish FOMC minutes.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,286 London high opens the 83,597 Asian high
Failure to hold the 82,806 London low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes 82,493, then the 82,226 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Sideways, compressing after Asia flush · RSI 56 · price 83,002.59
Higher lows vs lower highs inside the Asian range.
Hawkish FOMC minutes kept the USD firm. BTC swept below yesterday's 82,764 NY low to the 82,226 asian low during Asia, then recovered. Since then, a higher-low trendline (82,493, 82,806 london low) and a lower-high trendline off the 83,597 asian high have squeezed price toward 83,000 in early London, with the 83,286 london high capping.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the higher-low trendline and the 82,806 london low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 82,493 higher low exposes the 82,226 asian low
Close above the 83,286 london high and the lower-high trendline opens a retest of the 83,597 asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could break the compression
Lower highs from 83,597 asia high, higher low at 82,493 off the 82,226 asia low.
With the tape macro-led after the hawkish FOMC minutes, the Asia session extended yesterday's selloff to the 82,226 asia low before a higher low at 82,493. The London open bounce was rejected at the 83,286 london high, extending the lower-high sequence from the 83,597 asia high. Price sits just under the ema20 (~82,946) and above the 82,806 pullback low, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR(14) around $222.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 82,806 pullback low brings the 50% retrace of the asia low-london high fib (~82,756) and the 82,493 higher low into play
M15 close above the 83,286 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 83,597 asia high
A break below the 82,226 asia low resumes the downtrend
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and the pending Waller readout could materially shift this read
Higher low at 82,493 after the Asia sweep; London high 83,286 capping.
Lower highs from 83,690 ran into an Asia session sweep to the 82,226 asia low as the Iran-strike report hit risk. A higher low at 82,493 preceded a London open push to the 83,286 london high, which has since faded to the 83,000 area, roughly a 27% fib retrace of the bounce. RSI(14) sits flat near 53 into Waller's 08:30 UTC remarks.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,286 london high opens the 83,597 asia high
Failure to hold the 82,493 higher low puts the 82,226 asia low back in play
Loss of the 38.2% fib near 82,880 weakens the bounce structure
Waller (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 83,692; higher low 82,493 after Asia low.
The London open spike to the 83,286 london high was rejected at the descending trendline and price is back under 83,000, keeping the lower-high chain from the 83,597 asia high intact as hawkish FOMC minutes weigh. Asia swept yesterday's 82,764 prior low into the 82,226 asia low, and the 82,493 higher low since then is holding with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,286 london high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 83,597 asia high
Loss of the 82,493 higher low reopens the 82,226 asia low; the 50% fib of the Asia low to London high leg sits at 82,756, near the prior low
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
08:04 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off the Asia low · RSI 56 · price 83,044.55
Higher lows off 82,226; London high capping at 83,286.
Asia session slid from the 83,597 asia high to an 82,226 low with the hawkish FOMC-minutes overhang weighing. Higher lows at 82,458 and 82,493 followed, and the London open push ran to 83,286 before a rejection near the 61.8% fib. Price is now sitting on the 83,000 psych level with RSI(14) mid-50s.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 83,000 psych exposes the 82,493 higher low
Break of the 82,493 higher low and the rising trendline voids the recovery structure and puts the 82,226 asia low back in play
Close above the 83,286 london high opens the path to the 83,597 asia high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:48 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, testing EMA50 · RSI 54 · price 83,118.46
Higher low at 82,493, London break above Asian high.
After the Asia session flush to the 82,226 Asia low, a higher low printed at 82,493 and the London open lifted price through the 83,021 Asian high to a 83,286 London high. Price is now holding that breakout and sitting on EMA50, with the hawkish FOMC-minutes overhang capping follow-through below the 83,597 range top from yesterday's NY session.
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, about 45 minutes out, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 83,021 Asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
A clean push through the 83,286 London high exposes the 83,597 range top
Loss of the 82,493 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 82,226 Asia low
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) are the next volatility point for the NY session
07:33 UTC
Downtrend, rebound in progress · RSI 56 · price 83,185.39
Lower highs intact; low swept, then higher low.
Asia faded from the 83,597 asian high and swept Wednesday's 82,764 low to 82,226 (asian low) at 04:15 UTC. Price then set a higher low at 82,493 and rebounded back above the 83,000 round number into the London open. The 83,286 london high is the first cap, and the lower-highs line from the 83,692 prior high still frames the tape, with hawkish FOMC minutes keeping rallies contained.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,286 london high and the lower-highs line puts the 83,597 asian high back in play
Slip back below the 83,000 round number exposes the 82,493 higher low; losing it reopens the 82,226 asian low
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
07:18 UTC
Downtrend, early London bounce · RSI 54 · price 83,008.59
Lower highs from 83597; higher lows since the 82226 sweep.
The Asia session extended the slide from the 83597 Asia high, swept below yesterday's 82764 NY low to 82226, then reclaimed it. Hawkish FOMC minutes remain the macro weight. The early London bounce is printing higher lows and stalling at the 83064 session high, just under the 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 82,764.00, 82,493.00, 82,226.00
Resistance: 83,064.00, 83,340.00, 83,597.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83064 session high and the 61.8% retrace opens the 83340 lower high
Loss of the 82764 NY low, then the 82493 higher low, unwinds the bounce and puts the 82226 Asia low back in play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 47 · price 82,823.79
Lower highs from the 83597 asian high; higher lows since the 82226 sweep.
With the hawkish FOMC minutes keeping USD firm, the Asia session broke yesterday's prior low at 82764 and swept to the 82226 asian low at 04:15 UTC. Since then, higher lows at 82458 and the 82493 swing low have formed beneath the 83022 swing high, leaving price coiled near the 38.2–50% fib of the asian decline into London open. Price is holding below EMA20.
Support: 82,763.85, 82,493.15, 82,226.45
Resistance: 83,021.57, 83,596.94
What it said to watch
Close above the 83022 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 83597 asian high
Loss of the 82493 swing low and the higher-lows trendline reopens the 82226 asian low
Acceptance back below the 82764 prior low turns the reclaim into a failed hold
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asia low holding · RSI 43 · price 82,721.90
Lower highs since 83597; tight range above 82493.
BTC has made lower highs from the 83597 Asian high under the hawkish FOMC-minutes overhang. The 04:15 UTC spike to the 82226 Asian low was bought back within the bar, but the bounce stalled at the 83022 swing high near the 50% retrace of the Asian drop. Price is now coiling between the 82493 session low and the broken 82764 prior low into the London open.
Support: 82,493.00, 82,226.00
Resistance: 82,764.00, 83,022.00, 83,597.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83022 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 82493 session low exposes the 82226 Asian low
Reclaim of 82764 prior low turns it back into support
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:33 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 40 · price 82,550.09
Asia faded from the 83,597 asia high, broke yesterday's ny low at 82,764 and swept to the 82,226 asia low before the rebound was rejected at 83,022, near the 61.8% of the asia drop fib, with a further lower high at 82,920 since. Price sits back below the ny low and both EMAs heading into London open, with hawkish FOMC minutes still the macro overhang.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,920 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 82,458 swing low exposes the 82,226 asia low
Reclaim of the 83,597 asia high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalling above the Asia low · RSI 45 · price 82,914.69
Lower highs intact; tight 82,645–83,020 box after the 82,226 low.
The Asia session extended yesterday's sell-off with a rejection wick to the 82,226 Asia low at 04:15 UTC. Price is now consolidating at the 50% retracement of the 83,597–82,226 Asia leg, capped by the 83,020 rebound high and above a 82,645 higher low. Lower highs from 83,690 remain intact into London open, with RSI(14) near 45, ATR around $268 and a hawkish FOMC minutes overhang.
What it said to watch
A close above the 83,020 rebound high and the 61.8% retracement near 83,075 breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 83,597 Asia high
Failure to hold the 82,645 higher low reopens the 82,226 Asia low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
LH/LL sequence; Asia drop to 82,226 retraced ~58%, capped at 83,022 lower high.
Asia extended the downtrend, slicing through the prior NY low at 82,764 and flushing to the 82,226 Asia low. The bounce stalled at a 83,022 lower high, just under the 61.8% fib of the Asia drop. Price has faded back to 82,685 into London open with RSI(14) near 37, with the hawkish FOMC minutes still the macro overhang.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,657 minor low and the 82,458 higher low exposes the 82,226 Asia low
Reclaim of the 82,764 prior NY low is the first sign the fade is stalling
M15 close above the 83,022 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 83,597 Asia high back in play
Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; Asian low swept, NY low reclaimed.
Late in the Asia session, price extended the NY-led selloff, which followed the hawkish FOMC minutes. It swept to the 82,226 Asian low, then left a long rejection wick and climbed back above the 82,760 NY low. The bounce is stalling near the 50% fib retrace of the 83,597–82,226 drop, with the 83,020 swing high capping it below the descending trendline.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83,020 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and opens a path to the 83,600 Asian high near the descending trendline.
A drop back below the 82,760 NY low puts the 82,460 swing low and the 82,226 Asian low back in play.
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read after London open.
05:33 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off Asia low · RSI 45 · price 82,905.70
Lower highs intact; Asia swept below NY low then reclaimed.
Asia session extended the decline with a sweep below the prior NY low at 82,764 to 82,226, then reclaimed it. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the Asian leg, just under ema20 and the lower highs line near the 83,000 round number. Hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD frame the soft tone ahead of London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,000 round number (ema20, lower highs line) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83,597 asian high back in view
Loss of the 82,458 higher low reopens the 82,226 sweep low
Failure back below the 82,764 ny low turns the sweep into continuation
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 83,597; rebound stalling at broken prior low.
Late Asia session broke yesterday's 82,764 NY prior low, swept to an 82,226 session low and rebounded. The bounce stalled at the 82,949 rebound high near the 50% fib. Price is now retesting the prior low from below at the 38.2% fib, extending the lower-high chain that began after hawkish FOMC minutes revived hike talk.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82,764 prior low and the 82,949 rebound high would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 82,458 swing low reopens the 82,226 session low
The lower-highs trendline from 83,597 sits near 83,000; a move through it brings the 83,356 lower high into play
London open, Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from the 84,384 London high; Asia broke Wednesday's NY low and is basing just under it.
Highs have stepped lower since London's 84,384 peak. A descending trendline from the 83,597 asian high capped every Asia rebound, and the 04:15 UTC flush through Wednesday's 82,764 prior low to 82,226 was bought back. That bounce stalled at the 82,949 lower high, near the 50% fib. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 34, and hawkish FOMC minutes remain the macro headwind.
What it said to watch
Close back above the 82,764 prior low would mark the Asia break as a false break
Close above the 82,949 lower high breaks the micro lower-high chain and opens the descending trendline
Loss of the 82,458 swing low exposes the 82,226 asian low again
Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 29 · price 82,481.17
Lower highs from 83,597; prior NY low broken; 82,226 sweep low.
Late Asia session broke below the prior NY low at 82,764. It extended the lower-high sequence from the 83,597 Asia high and swept to a session low of 82,226 before the rebound faded at the 82,949 bounce high. RSI(14) is near 29 against a hawkish FOMC-minutes and firm-USD backdrop, with price holding in the lower part of the Asia drop fib.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82,764 prior ny low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 82,226 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,000 round number
Close above the lower highs trendline and the 82,949 bounce high breaks the Asia downtrend sequence
London open, then Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 84,384; Asia swept the NY low and reclaimed.
Lower highs since the 84,384 London-open peak keep the downtrend intact, with hawkish FOMC minutes the macro headwind. Asia broke the 82,764 ny low to a 82,226 sweep low, then rejected hard back near 82,900. Price now sits at the 50% fib of the 83,692–82,226 leg, under 83k psych and the descending trendline from the 83,692 swing high.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82,764 ny low exposes the 82,226 sweep low again
Close above 83k psych and the 83,356 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Waller 08:30 UTC and jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia broke below the NY low and the overnight 83150–83670 range; price sits near the session low.
Lower highs at 83692, 83669 and the Asia high at 83597 capped the overnight range. The Asia session then broke it, cutting through the asia lows near 82975 and the prior ny low at 82764 to a session low of 82642, against a firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme. The current bar is sitting just under the old ny low.
Support: 82,641.99, 82,500.00
Resistance: 82,763.85, 82,975.00, 83,596.94
What it said to watch
A close back above the ny low at 82764 would mark the Asia break as a false break
Failure to hold the 82642 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82500 round number
A reclaim of the asia lows near 82975, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg, would put the lower-high trendline back in focus
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
A close above the 83597 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and voids the downtrend read
LH/LL chain; Asia broke below the evening range floor.
Asia broke the 83,150 range floor and swept the 82,764 NY low to print 82,697, with lower highs at 83,692, 83,669 and 83,597 keeping the lower-high trendline intact. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 28, and the hawkish FOMC minutes plus a firm USD are the backdrop; a retrace of the Asia drop would meet the round number and range floor at its 38.2–50% fib (83,040–83,150).
What it said to watch
Close back above the 83,000 round number and the 83,150 range floor would mark the Asia break as a false break
Failure to hold the 82,697 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,500 round number
Break of the lower-high trendline near 83,600 invalidates the downtrend read
Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Late Asia session has extended the slide from the 83,597 Asia high, sweeping the NY low at 82,764 to an 82,697 Asia low before closing back above it. Price sits just under the 83,000 round number with RSI(14) near 30, and the lower high at 83,356 caps the bounce. The hawkish FOMC-minutes overhang stays in the background.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,000 round number and the 38.2% of the asia leg fib (~83,041) would mark the NY low sweep as rejected
Acceptance below the 82,697 asia low confirms a fresh lower-low
Break above the 83,356 lower high breaks the lower highs line; 83,597 asia high is the next reference
London open, Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 84,384; Asia session swept below yesterday's NY low and reclaimed it.
Mid-Asia session. The 82,764 prior low from yesterday's NY session gave way to a sweep to the 82,697 Asian low. The bar closed back above it, and price is now pinned just under the 83,000 round number with RSI(14) near 31. Lower highs at 83,597 and 83,356 keep the lower-high trendline in charge, with the hawkish FOMC minutes still weighing on risk.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 82,697 asian low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low extension
Holding the 82,764 prior low and reclaiming the 83,000 round number opens the 50% fib of the Asian move near 83,147 and the 83,356 lower high
A break of the lower-high trendline and the 83,597 asian high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY afternoon; Asia range floor broken.
Late in the Asia session, price has slipped under the 82980 Asia low. That followed rejection at the 83597 Asia high and a fresh lower high at 83356, extending the lower-highs sequence that started at 83692 in NY. RSI(14) is near 32, the NY low at 82764 is the next reference below, and the hawkish FOMC minutes overhang is still in play.
Support: 82,763.85, 82,500.00
Resistance: 83,356.20, 83,596.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82980 asia low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 82764 ny low exposes the 82500 psych level
M15 close above the 83356 lower high and the lower highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 82764–83692 with descending highs since NY session.
Wednesday's London-NY sell-off from 84384 to the 82764 swing low has given way to a range, with lower highs at the 83692 swing high, 83669 and the 83597 asian high. Hawkish FOMC minutes keep that cap in place. Mid-Asia, price sits near 83260 below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 44, after a twin low at 83172 held twice this hour.
Support: 83,172.40, 82,980.62, 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,382.80, 83,596.94, 83,691.83
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the lower-high trendline and the asian high at 83597 breaks the descending-high sequence
Rejection at the fib 38.2 near 83383 keeps the range top intact
Loss of the twin low at 83172, then the asian low at 82981, exposes the swing low at 82764
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:48 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, lower highs · RSI 46 · price 83,323.24
83,090–83,690 range with descending highs; Asian dip below the range floor reclaimed.
Since the 82,764 day low at the NY open, BTC has ranged between the 83,090 range floor and the 83,692 range top. Each high is lower than the last (83,692, 83,669, then the 83,597 Asian high), all capped near the 50% fib. Early Asia's dip to the 82,980 Asian low was reclaimed, and price is now pinned at EMA20 near 83,320 with RSI(14) neutral at 46. The hawkish FOMC minutes are hanging over the tape.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,597 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 83,692 range top
Loss of the 82,980 Asian low turns the false break into a range break toward the 82,764 day low
Waller 08:30 UTC and jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
82980–83690 range below a descending trendline of lower highs.
Since yesterday's 82764 day low, BTC has held an 82980–83690 range, with lower highs at the 83692 swing high, 83669 and the 83597 Asia high forming a descending trendline near the 50% retrace of the 84384–82764 drop. The Asia session swept the prior lows near 83150 down to an 82981 Asia low and recovered. Price sits just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 52, while a firm USD and high yields keep the tape heavy.
Support: 83,150.00, 82,980.62, 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,596.94, 83,691.83
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 83597 Asia high breaks the sequence and exposes the 83692 swing high
Failure to hold the 83150 prior lows reopens the 82981 Asia low, then the 82764 day low
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could shift USD and yields and change this read
Selling from the 84,384 high ran through London into an 82,764 swing low near the NY open. Rebounds have since printed lower highs at 83,692, 83,669 and the 83,597 Asia high, all capped beneath the 61.8% fib of the decline. The Asia session has dipped to an Asia low at 82,980, with RSI(14) near 45 and price under both EMAs as the USD stays firm on hawkish FOMC minutes and 5.35% 10y yields.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,597 Asia high breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 82,980 Asia low exposes the 82,764 swing low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Sideways after a sell-off, highs drifting lower · RSI 41 · price 83,165.41
Compression: lower highs pressing into a flat 83090–83150 base.
After the NY-hours flush to the 82764 24h low, BTC has compressed under a falling trendline of lower highs at 83692, 83669 and 83597, with the USD bid on 5.35% 10y yields capping rebounds. The Asia high at 83597 was rejected and price is back on the 83147 swing low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 83,147.43, 83,087.50, 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,596.94, 83,691.83
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83147 swing low and the 83088 ny swing low breaks the compression base and exposes the 82764 24h low
M15 close above the 83597 asia high clears the lower-high trendline, with the 83692 lower high next
Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) can reprice yields and the USD, shifting this read
01:47 UTC
Down day, now compressing below lower highs · RSI 48 · price 83,303.26
Lower highs from 83692 against a flat 83150 base, Asia mid-range.
London-NY selling took BTC from 84384 to the 82764 day low as yields and the USD firmed. The rebound stalled at the 83692 swing high, between the 50% and 61.8% of the selloff fib, and has since printed lower highs against a 83150 swing-low base. Asia rejected the 83597 asian high; price sits mid-range with RSI(14) at 48 and ATR near $135.
Support: 83,150.00, 82,764.00
Resistance: 83,597.00, 83,692.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 83150 swing low breaks the base and reopens the 82764 day low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 83597 asian high exposes the 83692 swing high
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the compression
83150–83690 range with lower highs and higher lows since the NY low.
The first hour of NY ran stops to the 82764 NY low as hawkish FOMC Minutes and record yields kept USD bid. Price has since held a 83150–83690 range, with each high lower and each low higher. Asia rejected the 83597 Asia high, near the 50% fib of the 84384–82764 drop, and price is now pinned to EMA20/EMA50 near the 38.2% fib.
Support: 83,260.00, 83,150.00, 82,764.00
Resistance: 83,597.00, 83,690.00, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83690 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 84000 round number in view
Loss of the 83260 Asia low, then the 83150 range floor, reopens the 82764 NY low
Rejection again at the 83597 Asia high / 50% fib keeps the compression intact
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Sideways after prior-day selloff, range contracting · RSI 58 · price 83,450.10
Lower highs vs higher lows since the 82,764 NY low.
Compression since the 82,764 NY low, with lower highs at 83,692 (range top), 83,669 and 83,597 against higher lows at 83,088 and 83,147. The post-FOMC-minutes pop stalled below the range top as the USD bid on record yields capped rebounds. Asia session is holding the upper half of its 83,285–83,597 range, with RSI(14) near 58.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,597 session high and the lower-highs line opens a test of the 83,692 range top
Loss of the 83,285 asia low exposes the 83,147 higher low; a break there puts the 82,764 ny low back in play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could resolve the compression
01:07 UTC
Range after NY sell-off, short-term recovery · RSI 61 · price 83,519.02
83,150–83,690 range since NY; higher lows building in early Asia.
BTC has held an 83,150–83,690 range since the 13:45 UTC flush to the 82,764 day low. A firm USD after the hawkish FOMC Minutes kept NY rallies capped below the range top. Early Asia is printing higher lows off the twice-tested 83,150 range floor, with price at the 83,520 Asia high, about 70% back through the 83,669–83,147 fib drop, and RSI(14) near 61.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,520 Asia high and the 83,564 late-NY high opens a test of the 83,690 range top
Loss of the 83,285 Asia low breaks the higher-lows trendline and returns focus to the 83,150 range floor
Break below the 83,150 range floor exposes the 82,764 day low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:48 UTC
Downtrend paused, compressing in range · RSI 47 · price 83,343.22
Lower highs and higher lows inside 83,087–83,692 range.
Since the NY-session day low at 82,764, BTC has held an 83,087–83,692 range. Lower highs from the range top down to 83,458 and higher lows at the 83,147 swing low are compressing price around the 38.2% fib in early Asia session. A firm USD after hawkish FOMC minutes and 5.35% 10y yields capped the rebound; RSI(14) at 47 is neutral and price is flat against EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,458 lower high breaks the compression, with the 83,692 range top next
Failure to hold the 83,147 swing low exposes the 83,087 range low and the 82,764 day low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
BTC slid from 85,500 during Asia hours yesterday and extended to the 82,764 24h low early in NY. Since then price has compressed between rising lows and lower highs, capped at the 83,670 fomc high after the hawkish Minutes and a firm USD. Early Asia session is holding above the 83,150 swing low, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,458 lower high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 83,670 fomc high
Loss of the 83,150 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 83,090 pre-fomc low, then the 82,764 24h low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs and higher lows coiling inside 83,150–83,690 range.
BTC slid from 85,538 to an 82,764 day low at the NY open, and has since coiled between higher lows and lower highs inside a 83,150–83,690 range. Hawkish FOMC Minutes and a bid USD did not extend the slide. Early in the Asia session price sits on ema20 near 83,350, with RSI(14) at 44.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,150 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 83,087 higher low, then the 82,764 day low
Close above the 83,432 lower high breaks the descending line and opens the 83,690 range top
Waller 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY low · RSI 46 · price 83,370.19
Lower highs from 83,692 against higher lows from 83,088 since the 82,764 NY low.
Yesterday's Asia flush from 85,300 to 83,616 started a downtrend that extended to an 82,764 NY low. Price has since compressed between lower highs near 83,670 and higher lows at 83,088 and 83,150. The bounce around the hawkish FOMC Minutes stalled below the prior high, and early Asia now sits at 83,370, just above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 46.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,670 lower high breaks the compression and opens the 84,000 round number
Loss of the 83,150 higher low exposes the 82,764 NY low
Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift USD and this read