21:10 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in a 3-week range · RSI 46 · price 83,356.20
Higher lows since August; 82,566–87,273 consolidation below the range high.
The mid-August breakout from the 62,000–66,000 base set up a higher-low chain, and the rally from the Sep 16 swing low at 74,902 peaked at the 87,273 range high on Sep 21. Since then price has consolidated for three weeks between 82,566 and 87,273. The range low lines up with the 38.2% retracement of that leg, and the Oct 5 lower high at 86,866 matched the shooting-star rejection near 86,000–87,000. The Oct 7 drop took price back under the EMA20, near 84,200, as French debt stress lifted the USD and the FOMC minutes leaned hawkish. The EMA50, near 81,000, is still rising beneath.
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 82,566 range low breaks the consolidation and exposes the ema50 / 50% fib area near 81,000
- Failure to hold 81,000 would put the Sep 16 swing low at 74,902 back in view and question the higher-low chain
- A daily close back above the ema20 near 84,200, then through the 86,866 lower high, shifts focus back to the 87,273 range high
- A close above the 87,273 range high resolves the consolidation higher
- Fri 9 Oct 14:00 UTC: UMich sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing