BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 9 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:05 UTC
Recovering from late-Sunday breakdown, range contracting · RSI 55 · price 75,164.22
Range break lower, then higher lows against lower highs below the old range floor.
Friday's dip on the hot NFP print reached 74797 in the NY session and was bought back. The weekend then held a 75470–76140 range until a late-Sunday drop broke the range floor and hit a 73443 swing low. Monday printed higher lows at 73636 (London open) and 74319 (NY session), while lower highs stayed capped beneath the old range floor near 75500, leaving a contracting retest structure. Price is back above EMA(20) near 74860 and pressing EMA(50) near 75080 and the 61.8% level of the week-high fib around 75220, with RSI(14) near 54 into Tuesday's CPI.
Support: 74,860.00, 74,319.00, 73,443.00
Resistance: 75,500.00, 75,597.00, 76,314.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75500 range floor and the lower-highs line would reopen the prior range toward the 75597 swing high and the 76314 week high
A break of the higher-lows line and 74319 would put the 73443 swing low back in focus
Holding the ema20 near 74860 on pullbacks keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read; a hot core print would extend the hawkish post-NFP repricing
Higher lows from 73,640 under lower highs from 75,470.
From Thursday to Sunday, price held a 75,200–76,300 range, and Friday's quick dip to 74,797 on the hot NFP print was bought back. A late-Sunday flush then broke the range floor and printed the 73,443 low. Monday's London low at 73,640 held above that low, and the NY session rally retested the old range floor at 75,470, where it was rejected, leaving a lower high at 75,116 near the 61.8% retracement of the flush. Price sits just above EMA(20) near 74,800 but below EMA(50) near 75,070, with RSI(14) back around 49 as a softer USD on Monday failed to lift it ahead of CPI.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 75,470 range floor reclaims the prior range and brings the 76,310 week high back into view
Loss of the higher-lows line and the 74,320 swing low exposes the 73,640 London low and the 73,443 flush low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
Weekend range broken lower; pennant forming below the old range floor.
BTC absorbed Friday's hot-NFP dip to 74,800 and held a 75,470–76,140 weekend range into Sunday. A late-Sunday flush to the 73,443 sunday low broke that range, and price has since compressed into a pennant: lower highs run from 75,597 to the 75,474 monday high set in London, and higher lows run from the 73,636 asia low to today's 74,319 ny low, with the old range floor capping. Price sits just under EMA(20) near 74,770 and below the ema50 at 75,070, around the 50% retracement of the sunday drop, with RSI(14) flat near 47 despite Monday's softer dollar.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75,474 monday high and the pennant top reopens the 76,140 range top
Break of the 74,319 ny low and the pennant base puts the 73,636 asia low and 73,443 sunday low back in focus
ema50 near 75,070 aligns with the 61.8% fib of the sunday drop; area to watch for rejection or break
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), preceded by Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
20:05 UTC
Downtrend off the Sunday break, rebounding into compression · RSI 55 · price 74,821.60
Lower highs from 75,597 against higher lows from 73,636; capped below the former range floor.
BTC held a 75,200–76,300 range from Friday through the weekend and absorbed the post-NFP spike to 74,797. It broke lower Sunday evening to a 73,443 sunday low, then printed a higher low at 73,636 around London open Monday. The NY session rally stalled at the 75,474 monday high, under the 75,597 lower high and the old range floor, and the pullback held a 74,319 higher low. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of the Sunday drop, above EMA(20) and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) mid-50s as the swings compress.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 75,474 monday high and the 75,597 lower high breaks the compression and reclaims the old range floor; that brings the 76,314 week high back into view.
Failure to hold the 74,319 higher low exposes the 73,636 monday low and the 73,443 sunday low.
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read after the hot NFP.
19:04 UTC
Short-term downtrend, trading below both EMAs · RSI 47 · price 74,579.87
Weekend range broken lower; lower highs capped near 75,600, higher low at 73,636.
Friday's post-NFP dip to 74,797 was absorbed back into the weekend's 75,470–76,130 range. That range then broke lower in a Sunday-evening flush to the 73,443 sunday low, and Monday's London open set a higher low at 73,636. The NY session rally stalled at 75,474, right at the old range floor and the 78.6% fib of the drop, and has since faded to a 74,319 session low. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 74,760 and EMA(50) near 75,100, RSI(14) is at 46, and BTC has not tracked Monday's softer USD, with the hawkish post-payrolls repricing still in play into CPI.
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC precedes it
H1 close back above the 75,474 range floor and the 75,600 lower highs line breaks the sequence and reopens the 76,314 friday high
Failure to hold the 74,319 session low exposes the 73,636 london low; a break of the 73,443 sunday low confirms a lower-low
Downtrend after range break, recovery capped · RSI 47 · price 74,637.80
Lower highs above, higher lows since Monday London, contracting.
BTC broke out of the 75,470–76,140 weekend range in a sharp Sunday-evening drop to 73,443, then set a slightly higher Monday low at 73,636 in London hours before the NY session lifted price to 75,474, where the lower-high trendline and the old range floor capped it. Price now sits back below the weekly open and EMA(20) (~74,780) with RSI(14) near 47, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the Sunday drop fib. Friday's dip on the hot payrolls print was absorbed, but the hawkish-Fed backdrop into CPI has kept each bounce shallow.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75,474 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 75,597 Sunday high and the old weekend range
Failure to hold the 74,426 NY low and the 74,251 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 73,636 Monday low
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:05 UTC
Downtrend after weekend range break, recovering in rising lows · RSI 51 · price 74,932.48
Range break lower, then contracting under the old range floor.
BTC broke out of the thin weekend range (75,470 range floor to 76,125 weekend high) late Sunday, spiking to 73,443 before Monday's London-open low at 73,636 set a base. Rising lows, with the latest higher low at 74,250, carried price back to the old range floor in the first hour of NY, where it met rejection. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Sunday drop, above EMA(20) near 74,820 but below EMA(50) at 75,140, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and Friday's hot payrolls keeping a hawkish-Fed weight on the tone into CPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 75,470 range floor reclaims the weekend range and opens 76,125 weekend high
Break of the 74,250 higher low ends the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 73,636 monday low
Holding below EMA(50) at 75,140 keeps the lower-highs line from Sunday's 75,597 bounce intact
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Barkin at 17:15 UTC today
16:04 UTC
Recovering from Sunday flush, higher lows since Monday London · RSI 54 · price 75,372.99
Double base at 73.4k–73.6k, testing underside of weekend range.
Price held a tight weekend range of 75,470–76,140 after Friday's NFP dip to 74,797 was bought. A Sunday-evening flush to 73,443 then broke that range, and the Monday London low at 73,636 held above it as RSI(14) set a higher trough, carving a double base. Higher lows through the NY session, helped by a softer USD on risk-on flows, have lifted price back above the ema20 and EMA50, about 78.6% back into the flush. The move now presses the old range floor at 75,470 with the flush high at 75,597 just above.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75,597 flush high confirms the double bottom and reopens the 76,142 weekend high
Rejection at the 75,470 range floor turns the old weekend support into resistance
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 74,540 higher low puts the ema20 recovery in question
Failure to hold the 73,636 monday low reopens the 73,443 Sunday flush low
Barkin at 17:15 UTC today and Waller Tue 09:00 UTC; a hawkish tone after the strong NFP could weigh on the bounce
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (~22h) could materially shift this read; a core print ≥0.3% is the larger downside risk
15:04 UTC
Down since Sunday's break, now compressing · RSI 44 · price 74,624.82
Lower highs and higher lows coiling below the broken weekend range floor.
BTC broke below the 75,470–76,140 weekend range on Sunday evening and slid to 73,443 in thin trade. Since then it has made a lower high at 75,597, a shallower Monday low at 73,636, and a coil between a rising higher-low line and a falling lower-high line. The 75,000 round number capped the London-session recovery twice, close to the 61.8% fib of the 76,125–73,443 drop. Price sits just under EMA(20) near 74,720 and below EMA(50) near 75,140, with RSI(14) at 44. Friday's hot-NFP dip to 74,797 was absorbed, but Monday's softer USD has not carried BTC back into the old range floor.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75,000 round number and the lower-high line opens a retest of the 75,550 range floor
Failure to hold the 74,250 higher low breaks the higher-low line and puts the 73,640 Monday low and the 73,440 Sunday low back in play
A reclaim of the 76,140 range top would negate the Sunday range break
Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and Barkin (17:15 UTC) today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Range break lower, then lower highs over a higher low.
From Thursday's high at 78,209, BTC slid into a 75,100–76,300 range that held through Friday's NFP-hour dip to 74,797 and a thin weekend. The range broke in a Sunday ~21:00 UTC flush to the 73,443 Sunday low. Monday's London-open retest printed a higher low at 73,636, with the 74k shelf holding late morning, while rebounds have hit the 75k cap twice and form a lower-highs line from the 75,597 rebound high. Price sits just under EMA(20) near 74,710 and around the 23.6% retracement of the Thursday high–Sunday low move, with RSI(14) near 44 as hawkish post-NFP Fed repricing hangs over the tape.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75k cap and the lower-highs trendline breaks the compression and opens the 75,597 rebound high
Loss of the 74k shelf and the 73,636 Monday low voids the higher-low read and exposes the 73,443 Sunday low
Repeated H1 closes back under EMA(20) keep the lower-highs sequence intact
Fed's Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and Barkin (17:15 UTC) today, Waller Tue 09:00 UTC
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Weekend range broken lower; lower highs from Asia, higher low at 73,952.
BTC held a 75,100–76,450 band from Thursday's slide off 79,658 through the weekend, including the post-NFP dip on Friday, before a Sunday-night flush broke it to the sunday low at 73,443. Monday's Asia rebound stalled at the asia high of 75,597, and London hours dragged price back to 73,636. A higher low at 73,952 followed, and price is now retesting the 75k cap, rejected twice today and sitting just under the 23.6% fib of the 79,658–73,443 drop, with RSI(14) near 49, back above EMA(20) at ~74,740 but below EMA(50) near 75,180 as the hawkish post-NFP backdrop lingers.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75k cap and EMA(50) near 75,180 breaks the lower-highs line and opens the asia high at 75,597, the underside of the old weekend range
Failure to hold the higher low at 73,952 keeps the lower-high sequence intact and reopens the sunday low at 73,443
Rejection at 75,000 that loses EMA(20) at ~74,740 returns price to the middle of Monday's 73,950–75,000 band
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range breakdown below 75.1k, lower highs since Sunday's rebound high.
Thursday's 79.8k–75.5k drop set a 75.1k–76.3k range through the weekend, with Friday's hot NFP beat producing only a wick to 74.8k before a Sunday 21:00 UTC flush broke the 75111 range floor and printed a 73443 swing low. Since then the hourly chart has posted lower highs from the 75597 rebound high, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs. Through the London session price has based between the 73636 monday low and the 74705 session high, where EMA(20) (~74680) has capped, while dips have held around the 74000 round number.
Support: 74,000.00, 73,636.00, 73,443.00
Resistance: 74,705.00, 75,111.00, 75,597.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 74705 session high and EMA(20) breaks the lower highs line and opens a retest of the 75111 range floor
Loss of the 74000 round number and a break of the 73636 monday low exposes the 73443 swing low
23.6% retracement of the week drop fib (~74944) sits just above the session high; acceptance above it and the 75597 rebound high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Fed speakers during NY hours (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 UTC) could shift the read after the hawkish NFP repricing
US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for the 73.4k–75.6k structure
BTC broke down during Thursday's NY session into a 75,100–76,450 range. A late-Sunday flush to 73,443 then cut through that range floor near 75,500, and the Asia rebound to 75,597 met rejection at the same floor, with lower highs printing under a descending trendline since. Price sits below EMA(20) near 74,700 with RSI(14) around 38, and the London-open bounce off the Monday low at 73,636 stalled at the 50% fib of the rebound high-to-Monday-low leg. Friday's hot 165K NFP wick to 74,797 was bought back, but the digest's $78–79k reference is stale: the chart now trades well below it.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the descending trendline and EMA(20) near 74,700 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the Monday low at 73,636, then the Sunday low at 73,443, confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend
A recovery into the range floor near 75,500 is the area to watch for rejection or acceptance back inside the range, with the range top at 76,450 above
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekend range broken lower, lower highs stepping down from Sunday spike.
Thursday's NY-session slide from 80.3k gave way to a 75.5k–76.3k consolidation through the weekend, which absorbed the Friday dip on the hot NFP print to 74.8k. Late Sunday the range floor gave way to the week low at 73,443, and the rebound to the 75,597 spike high only reached the low end of the 80.3k–73.4k drop fib. Since then the lower highs have stepped down through Asia into the London open, with the latest bounce capped below EMA(20) near 74,780, the Monday low at 73,636 holding, RSI(14) near 40 and price under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and EMA(20) near 74,780 breaks the Monday sequence
Reclaiming the range floor at 75,472 and the spike high at 75,597 would neutralise the range-break read
Break of the 74,000 round number exposes the Monday low at 73,636
Loss of the week low at 73,443 confirms a fresh lower low on the drop fib
Fed speakers today (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekend range break, lower highs since Sunday flush.
Thursday's NY-session liquidation from 80,375 to 75,499 set the tone. The Friday-weekend range (74,797 to the 76,314 range top) gave way to a Sunday evening flush to the 73,443 Sunday low, a range break that fits the hawkish post-NFP backdrop. The rebound stalled at the 75,597 bounce high and has printed lower highs since, with price below EMA20 (~74,870) and EMA50 (~75,290) and RSI(14) near 41; the London open dipped to a 73,636 London low but closed back at 74,450 above the lower-highs line, holding a higher low over Sunday's low for now.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 73,443 Sunday low confirms a lower low and extends the range break
Losing the 73,636 London low would undo the higher-low attempt off the Sunday low
Close back above EMA20 and the 75,597 bounce high would break the lower-highs sequence; 23.6% of the week drop fib sits near 75,100
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 UTC) and Waller Tue 09:00 UTC could shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the main event risk; a move back toward the 76,314 range top or through the Sunday low is in scope
Lower highs since the Sunday rebound; weekend range broken lower.
Thursday's NY-session liquidation from 80,450 to 75,500 set the window's direction. A 75,470–76,140 weekend range followed, with its range top sitting at the 38.2% fib of that drop, and Friday's NFP-driven dip to the 74,797 friday low was pulled back inside it. A late-Sunday break printed the 73,443 sunday low, and the rebound stalled at the 75,597 sunday high before the Asian session and London open carved successive lower highs back toward the low, with price below EMA(20) near 74,840 and EMA(50) near 75,330 and RSI(14) at 29.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 73,443 sunday low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 73,000 psych level
A new low with RSI(14) holding above Sunday's ~18 reading would mark bullish divergence
Reclaim of the 74,797 friday low and EMA(20) breaks Monday's lower-high sequence, with the 75,597 sunday high the next structure above
Return toward the 76,142 range top (38.2% fib) would negate the range break
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekend range broken lower; bounce capped below range floor.
The window's dominant move came in Thursday's NY hours, a slide from 80.5k to 75.5k. Price then compressed into a 75.1k–76.3k band through the weekend, and Friday's hot NFP produced only a wick to 74.8k inside it. Sunday evening's break to a week low of 73,443 was followed by a bounce high at 75,597 that stalled just under the old range floor. Highs have stepped lower since, with price now back under the ema20 near 75,010 and probing the Asia session low at 73,912. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s. The digest's $78–79k reference levels are stale relative to this window.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 73,443 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 75,597 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and returns price to the range
Ema20 near 75,010 has capped the last four hourly closes
Range top at 76,314 aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Sunday selloff
Range break lower, rebound rejected below old range floor.
Thursday's NY-session liquidation from 80,700 to 75,500 set the week's tone, followed by a three-day 74,800–76,450 range that absorbed the hot-NFP dip into the 74,797 Friday low. A Sunday-evening break to the 73,443 week low bounced to 75,597, but the rebound stalled under the old range floor near 75,500. Lower highs have followed through the Asia session, with price under EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 36 as the hawkish payrolls read and ETF outflows weigh.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 74,221 session low reopens the 73,443 week low
Recovery above the 74,797 Friday low and the lower highs trendline would ease the downside structure
Acceptance back above the 75,500 range floor puts the 76,445 range top, near the 38.2% of the week drop fib, back in play
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range break lower, rebound capped under prior range floor.
Thursday's US-session slide from 80,700 set up a 75,100–76,300 range. It absorbed Friday's post-NFP dip to 74,797 but gave way Sunday evening in a drop to the 73,443 sunday low. The Asia-session rebound printed lower highs at the 75,600 rebound high and 75,500, then rolled back under the EMA(20) near 75,200, which lines up with the 23.6% sell-off fib. RSI(14) sits near 38. The digest's backdrop stays heavy: the hot payrolls and wage beat lifted Fed-hawkish risk, and ETF outflows and Binance-hack fallout add to the pressure.
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the ema20 near 75,200, the 23.6% sell-off fib, would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 74,350 rebound low exposes the 73,443 sunday low and a fresh lower-low
A move through the 75,600 rebound high toward the 76,300 range top (38.2% sell-off fib) would put the range break in question
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Weekend range broken lower, broken range floor now capping as resistance.
Thursday's NY-session slide from 80.7k set the week's tone, and price then held a 75.5k–76.1k range through the weekend after the hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) briefly spiked it to 74.8k. A late-Sunday break to the 73,443 week low rebounded only to the old range floor near 75,550, close to the 23.6% retracement of the Thursday-to-Sunday decline, where two attempts stalled. Price has eased back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) during the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 38 and holding above Monday's higher low at 74,350 for now.
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 75,550 range floor would undo the range-break read and put the 76,140 range top back in play
Failure to hold the 74,350 higher low would expose the 73,443 week low
Recovery of EMA(20) near 75,270 is the first sign the rebound is regaining traction
Fed speakers today and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday; false break below range floor reclaimed.
Thursday's NY-session sell-off from 80.7k set the tone, with price then boxed between the 74,797 friday low (Friday's post-NFP dip) and a 76,300 range top capped by lower highs. A Sunday-evening flush to the 73,443 sunday low reversed within three bars, leaving a false break of the range floor, but the rebound is stalling at the 23.6% level of the drop fib (80.7k–73.4k), just under ema20 and the 75,597 rebound high. RSI(14) recovered only to the low 40s, in line with the hot NFP and wage beat keeping BTC on the defensive.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75,597 rebound high returns price to the prior range and neutralises the Sunday break
Failure to hold the 74,797 friday low exposes the 73,443 sunday low and extends the lower-low sequence
Range top at 76,300 aligns with the lower highs trendline and the 38.2% drop fib level near 76,200
Fed's Bowman and Goolsbee (Mon 13:40 / 15:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range after impulse lower; weekend false break recovering.
Thursday's NY-session breakdown took BTC from 80,300 to 75,500. Price then held a 74,797–76,446 range through Friday, where the hot NFP dip to the range low was bought back within the hour, and through a thin weekend with lower highs under the range top. A late-Sunday flush to the 73,443 sweep low failed to hold. The Asia session rebound has printed a higher low near 74,350 but stalled at the 75,597 rebound high, leaving price back inside the range yet capped below the ema20 and EMA(50) near 75,350–75,570, with RSI(14) recovering only to the low 40s.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the ema20 and the 75,597 rebound high would reopen the range mid and the 76,446 range top
Failure to hold the 74,350 higher low brings the 73,443 sweep low back into play; a close beneath it invalidates the false-break read
Range low at 74,797 is the first test of whether the weekend recovery holds
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Post-crash range broken lower Sunday, retest of range floor rejected.
Thursday's slide from 80,500 to 75,500 during the London-NY transition set the tone. A 75,500–76,200 range then formed under a line of lower highs, and Friday's hot NFP only briefly pushed price to the 74,800 nfp low before it recovered. Sunday evening's break of the range floor ran to a 73,443 week low, and the rebound has reached the 61.8–78.6% zone of the sunday drop. The 23:00 UTC probe to 75,596 was rejected under the range floor, leaving price below EMA(20) near 75,390 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 42.
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 75,520 range floor and ema20 would turn Sunday's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 74,350 rebound low exposes the 73,443 week low
A break of the lower highs line near 76,000 and the 76,200 range top would end the lower-high sequence
Fed speakers Mon (Bowman 13:40 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:05 UTC
Downtrend, range broken lower · RSI 37 · price 74,710.72
Range break lower; rebound rejected at range floor.
Thursday's selloff from ~80,300 to 75,500 ran through the London-NY transition and first hours of NY. It gave way to a 75,200–76,140 range that absorbed Friday's hot-NFP dip to the 74,797 nfp low. Late Sunday the range floor gave way in thin trade, printing a 73,443 sunday low; the rebound from the 74,350 rebound low stalled at 75,597, just above the old range floor. Price is back under the nfp low and below EMA(20) near 75,380 with RSI(14) around 37, well beneath the $77k–79k zone cited in recent news, in line with the hawkish repricing after payrolls.
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the 75,520 range floor would neutralise the range break; further rejection there keeps the breakdown intact
Failure to hold the 74,350 rebound low exposes the 73,443 sunday low
Recovery through the 76,140 range top and the 38.2% fib of the decline (~76,260) would shift the read back to range
Fedspeak Mon (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read