Lower-high sequence below falling EMAs; late-NY sweep of the prior low reclaimed.
BTC slipped below the Asian range low near 73,340 during London and bled through NY on the Nvidia/Strategy-led tech sell-off. It bottomed at the 71,166 prior low, and the rebound failed at 72,126, starting a lower-high sequence beneath the falling ema20 and ema50. Late in NY, price swept that low to a 71,046 session low and was bid back to 71,270. RSI(14) at 35.9 is soft but not oversold, and ATR is 21,490 pips (~$215).
Support: 71,165.63, 71,045.76, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,452.08, 71,549.20, 71,872.97
What it said to watch
A close back below the 71,166 prior low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low leg toward the 71,046 session low
A break of the 71,046 session low exposes the 70,000 psych handle into Friday's US PPI
Recovery above ema20 (71,452, near the 38.2% fib of the 72,126–71,046 drop) and the 71,549 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline
The ema50 at 71,873 caps any deeper retrace of the drop
Fed's Williams is speaking now (23:30 UTC); any endorsement of faster hikes after the hot CPI could extend the risk-off move
Lower-high chain since 71,980; fresh sweep of NY low.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 71,980 swing high late in NY, extending the Nvidia-led tech sell-off. The last closed bar swept the 71,165 NY low to a 71,046 session low before closing back above it. Price sits below the ema20 (71,479) and ema50 (71,901) with RSI(14) at 38.9, and the 38.2% fib of the 72,125 swing lines up with the ema20 and the 71,549 lower high.
Support: 71,045.76, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,479.19, 71,549.20, 71,900.65
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 71,046 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 70,000 psych handle.
A close above the 71,549 lower high and the ema20 breaks the lower-highs trendline. The ema50 at 71,901 is the next cap.
Fed's Williams is speaking now (23:30 UTC) and could shift this read. US PPI is due Fri 13:30 UTC.
ATR(14) is turning up from about 19,750 pips after a long compression, which signals range expansion on the sweep.
Lower highs below ema20, basing above the day low.
BTC dropped out of its 73,350–74,100 Asian range during London. The NY session then flushed it to a 71,165.63 day low as the Nvidia-led tech sell-off spilled into crypto. Since then, a lower high at 71,980.73 and a swing high at 71,654.09 have kept price below the ema20 (71,498) and ema50 (71,925), and it is now holding just above the 71,225 late lows with RSI(14) at 42.4 and ATR(14) compressing to ~20,000 pips.
Support: 71,224.56, 71,165.63
Resistance: 71,498.42, 71,654.09, 71,980.73
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams speaks in ~13 min (23:30 UTC); a hike-leaning tone could break the compression
M15 close below the 71,165.63 day low confirms a lower low and exposes the $70K psych level
Close back above the ema20 and the 71,654 swing high would negate the lower-high sequence
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility event
Lower highs since NY bounce, pressing session low.
BTC broke down through the NY session as the Nvidia CEO exit hit tech, printing a 71,165.63 session low before the bounce high at 72,125.57 faded into a chain of lower highs. After NY close, price is grinding into the 71,226 late low below the ema20 (71,508.53) and ema50 (71,946.66). RSI(14) sits at 38.8, and ATR has compressed to roughly $198 from about $329.
Support: 71,165.63, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,508.53, 71,549.20, 72,125.57
What it said to watch
A break of the 71,165.63 session low extends the downtrend and puts the 70,000 psych handle in view
An M15 close above the 71,549 lower high and the ema20 breaks the lower-highs trendline
A close above the 72,125.57 bounce high negates the lower-high chain
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (in ~27 min) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 72,125 bounce high, coiling above session low.
BTC flushed from the Asian range through the London-NY transition to a 71,165 session low on NVDA-led risk-off. The bounce stalled at 72,125, and late NY hours have printed a chain of lower highs below the ema20 (71,528) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 39. ATR(14) has compressed to ~20,058 pips (~$200) as price coils just above the 71,262 swing low.
Support: 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,527.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 71,262 swing low exposes the 71,165 session low
Break of the session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 71,000 psych handle
Close back above the ema20 at 71,528 breaks the lower-highs trendline; 71,980 lower high then caps
Reclaim of the 72,125 bounce high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Williams speaks at 23:30 UTC in ~43m and could materially shift this read
Lower highs capped by ema20, holding above 71,166 day low.
BTC shed roughly $2,400 through London and NY to a 71,166 day low as the NVDA shock and ETF outflows hit risk. The 72,126 bounce high was followed by a lower high at 71,952, and price has since ground lower beneath the ema20 at 71,548 and the ema50 at 71,998. After the NY close ATR has compressed to ~20,748 pips (~$207), RSI(14) is at 41.5 and the 71,263 swing low is holding.
Support: 71,262.52, 71,165.63, 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,548.04, 71,951.76, 72,125.57
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 71,166 day low extends the downtrend toward the 71,000 round number
Close back above the ema20 at 71,548 and the lower-highs trendline challenges the descending structure
Failure to reclaim the 71,952 lower high keeps the 72,126 bounce high out of reach
Lower highs pressing the post-NY base above 71,165.
The NY-session selloff after the Huang resignation shock bottomed at the 71,165 NY low. The bounce high at 72,125 has since faded into a chain of lower highs, and price is grinding back toward the 71,278 swing low after NY close. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 39, and ATR(14) has compressed to about $211 from $345.
Support: 71,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 71,278 swing low exposes the 71,165 NY low and the 71,000 round number
A reclaim of the 71,550 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
A close back above the ema50 at 72,021 and the 72,125 bounce high would invalidate the downtrend read
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (about 75 min) could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 42 · price 71,417.35
Lower highs above a flat floor at the day low.
BTC slid through the NY session to a day low at 71165.63 as the NVDA shock after Huang's exit and MSCI's Strategy removal hit risk. Since then it has printed lower highs from 72125 to the 71980 swing high and 71654, capped below ema20 and a falling trendline. Price is compressing just above the late NY low at 71278, with RSI(14) at 41.9 and ATR(14) contracting to about $218.
Support: 71,165.63
Resistance: 71,582.55, 71,654.09
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 71165.63 day low extends the downtrend toward the $71,000 area
M15 close above the 71654 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming ema20 at 71582.55 would be the first sign the late NY low is holding
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could expand the contracting ATR
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 43 · price 71,487.27
BTC broke well below the Asian range through London and NY as the Huang/Nvidia shock hit risk, bottoming at the 71165 session low. The bounce to 72125 failed, and late NY has printed a 71980 lower high and a 71278 swing low. Price is below the falling ema20 at 71595 with RSI(14) at 43, while ATR compresses to about $227 (22,728 pips).
Support: 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,595.21
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 71278 swing low and the 71165 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 71000 round number
A reclaim of the ema20 at 71595, then a break of the 71980 lower high, would neutralise the late-NY drift
Acceptance above the 72125 bounce high voids the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (about 100 min) could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after flush · RSI 44 · price 71,496.26
Lower highs off 72,125 bounce; lows holding above 71,165 day low.
The NY-session slide on the Nvidia/Huang shock bottomed at the 71,165 day low. Since the 72,125 bounce, price has printed lower highs at the 71,980 swing high and the 71,654 lower high, and it now sits under the ema20 at 71,605 in late NY hours. ATR(14) has compressed to about $235 and RSI(14) is at 43.5.
Resistance: 71,604.68, 71,654.09
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 71,278 late low exposes the 71,165 day low and the 3-month low area
M15 close above the 71,654 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; the 71,980 swing high is next
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
The NY-session slide on the Nvidia/Huang shock and Strategy's MSCI exit carved a session low at 71,165.63. The bounce stalled at 72,125.57 (bounce high), and the 71,980.73 lower high has since capped price. Late-NY bars are grinding just above the 71,278.50 late low under a falling ema20, with ATR(14) contracting from ~$350 to ~$241 and RSI(14) at 39, neither stretched.
Support: 71,278.50, 71,165.63
Resistance: 71,613.99, 71,980.73, 72,125.57
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 71,278.50 late low puts the 71,165.63 session low back in play; losing it extends the lower-low chain
Close back above ema20 at 71,614 and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
A move through the 71,980.73 lower high toward the 72,125.57 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (about 2h) could jolt this compressed range
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major driver for rate pricing
Lower highs below ema20, grinding back toward session low.
BTC lost the Asian range low near 73,344 in London and extended through NY to a 71,165 session low as the Nvidia/Huang shock and Strategy's MSCI exit hit crypto. The rebound stalled at the 72,125 bounce high. Since then a chain of lower highs has held below the ema20 at 71,637, and price is grinding back toward the 71,294 swing low late in NY hours. RSI(14) sits at 37 and ATR is compressing to about $246.
Support: 71,294.48, 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,511.25, 71,637.01
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the lower-high trendline (~71,460) and the 71,511 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the ema20 at 71,637 next
A break of the 71,165 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 71,000 round number
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI is due Fri 13:30 UTC
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 71,450.31
Lower highs below 72,125 after NY breakdown; late-NY drift above session low.
NY session broke below $72K on the Nvidia-led risk-off and the MSCI Strategy exit, printing a 71,165 session low. The bounce stalled at the 72,125 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and lower highs at 71,980 and 71,654 have followed. Price sits below the ema20 at 71,668 and the falling ema50, with ATR(14) compressing to about $252 as late-NY trade drifts toward the 71,294 recent low.
Support: 71,294.48, 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,667.80
What it said to watch
Break below the 71,165 session low extends the downtrend and puts the 71,000 psych level in play
M15 close above the 71,980 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 72,125 bounce high caps the 38.2% fib zone
Failure to reclaim the ema20 at 71,668 keeps the consolidation pinned near the lows
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~2.7h) could shift this read; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major risk
BTC broke well below the Asian range during the NY session as the Nvidia/Huang shock, MSCI's Strategy exit and long liquidations pushed it to a 71165.63 day low. The rebound high at 72125.57 sits near the 50% retrace of the NY drop. Late NY has printed lower highs, with the prior high at 71980.73 and the lower-high trendline capping. Price is pinned under the ema20 at 71729.36 with RSI(14) at 39.4, just above the 71332.44 swing low.
Support: 71,332.44, 71,165.63
Resistance: 71,729.36, 71,980.73, 72,125.57
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 71332.44 swing low exposes the 71165.63 day low; a break there extends the downtrend
M15 close above the prior high at 71980.73 breaks the lower-high trendline and the consolidation read
Rebound high at 72125.57 caps the post-flush range; reclaiming it puts the NY drop fib 61.8% in play
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late-NY range · RSI 42 · price 71,513.24
Post-selloff range 71,165–72,125 with lower highs, price below ema20.
Nvidia and MSCI-driven de-risking extended a London-to-NY selloff from 73,560 through the Asian range to a 71,165 session low. Late NY has since held a 71,165–72,125 range. The bounce stalled near the 38.2% fib, and the 71,980 swing high set a lower high. Price sits under the ema20 at 71,757, RSI(14) at 41.8 has recovered from sub-20, and ATR has compressed to roughly $279.
Support: 71,332.44
Resistance: 71,756.84
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 71,165 session low resumes the downtrend; the 71,332 swing low is the first test
Hold above ema20 and the 71,980 swing high, then a close above the 72,125 range top, would break the lower-highs line
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk for the range
Lower highs inside a 71,165–72,125 post-flush range.
BTC broke the Asian range low and slid about $2,000 through London and NY on the Nvidia/MSCI de-risking and long liquidations. It printed a 71,165 session low before RSI(14) recovered from sub-20. Late NY is holding 71,165–72,125 below a falling ema20 at 71,775, with lower highs at 72,125 (bounce high) and 71,980 and the 71,332 swing low back under test.
Support: 71,332.44
Resistance: 71,775.23
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 71,332 swing low exposes the 71,165 session low; a break there resumes the downtrend leg
An M15 close above the 71,980 lower high and the 72,125 bounce high invalidates the lower-highs read
ATR(14) has compressed from ~352 to ~284 USD; expansion out of the range would mark the next leg
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a post-selloff range · RSI 39 · price 71,476.28
Range 71,165–72,125 under falling EMAs, lower highs.
The Nvidia-led risk-off leg took BTC through the Asian range low near 73,180 during London and down to a 71,165 session low at 15:00 UTC. RSI(14) has since recovered from sub-20 to 38.7. Price has ranged 71,165–72,125 since, below both EMAs, with a lower high at 71,980 in late NY and the 71,413 swing low now being pressed.
Support: 71,413.35, 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,807.64
What it said to watch
A close below the 71,413 swing low exposes the 71,165 session low and the 71,000 round number
A recovery above the ema20 at 71,808 and the 71,980 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence; the 72,125 range top sits above
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI follows Fri 13:30 UTC
ATR(14) near $293 is compressing from $352, so ranges are narrowing into the Asia session
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY selloff · RSI 40 · price 71,554.20
Lower highs above a 71,166 session low, below both EMAs.
The NY-session selloff on the Nvidia/Huang risk shock bottomed at the 71,166 session low with RSI(14) sub-20. The bounce stalled at the 72,126 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the selloff fib. Since then price has printed a lower high at 71,981 under a falling trendline, with rejection near the ema20 and a 71,413 swing low holding late in NY. RSI(14) is back at 39.7 and ATR(14) is ~30,670 pips (~$307).
Support: 71,413.35, 71,165.63
Resistance: 71,840.52, 71,980.73, 72,125.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 72,126 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Another rejection at the ema20 (71,841) keeps the lower-high chain intact
Loss of the 71,413 swing low exposes the 71,166 session low; a break there marks a fresh lower low with the $70K psych level below
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major risk
Lower highs below ema20 inside the 71,166–72,126 post-selloff range.
BTC slid from 73,562 through the London-NY transition and NY open as the Nvidia shock and ETF outflows hit risk, bottoming at the 71,166 day low with RSI(14) washed out near 16. The rebound stalled at the 72,126 bounce high, just through the 38.2% of the selloff fib, and late NY has capped price at a 71,981 lower high under the ema20, with price now back at the 71,478 swing low and ATR(14) at roughly $310.
Support: 71,478.28, 71,371.40, 71,165.63
Resistance: 71,980.73, 72,125.57
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 71,478 swing low puts the 71,371 pullback low and the 71,166 day low back in play
Close above the 71,981 lower high and then the 72,126 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 72,125 bounce high; higher lows being tested late NY.
BTC broke below the Asian range in London, then slid through the first hours of NY on the Nvidia/Huang shock to a 71,165 day low with RSI(14) in the 16–20 zone. The bounce stalled at the 72,125 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the drop fib. Price has since printed a lower high at 71,980 and is again rejecting from the ema20 (71,893), now pressing the 71,591 higher low. ATR(14) sits near 31,500 pips, about $315 per bar.
Support: 71,591.16, 71,371.40
Resistance: 71,893.44
What it said to watch
A break of the 71,591 higher low exposes the 71,371 swing low; failure at the 71,165 day low brings the $70K psych level into view
A close above the 71,980 lower high and the 72,125 bounce high would break the lower-highs sequence
Monthly Budget Statement in 13 min and Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC; Friday's PPI is the larger risk to this read
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY flush · RSI 46 · price 71,875.84
Lower high under ema20 above a higher low, coiling.
The late-London break below 73,200 accelerated in NY on the Nvidia/Huang shock and ETF outflows, printing a 71,166 day low at 15:00 UTC with RSI(14) down to 16. Since then price has held a higher low at 71,371 but capped at a lower high near 71,952. It sits just under a flattening ema20 at 71,914, with the 72,126 rebound high near the 38.2% drop fib.
Support: 71,371.40, 71,165.63
Resistance: 71,913.59, 71,951.76, 72,125.57
What it said to watch
Close above the 72,126 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and clears the 38.2% drop fib
Loss of the 71,371 higher low reopens the 71,166 day low, with 70,000 psych below
Fed's Schmid now and Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the coil; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
Higher low at 71,371 vs lower highs from 72,126, compressing under ema20.
The London-hours break below the Asian range ran into the NY session and bottomed at the 71,166 session low at 15:00 UTC. The Nvidia shock and ETF outflows were the drivers, and RSI(14) has since recovered from 16 to 45. After London close, price is compressing between a 71,371 higher low and lower highs from the 72,126 swing high, and is capped just under the ema20 at 71,916.
Support: 71,371.40, 71,165.63
Resistance: 71,916.20, 72,125.57, 72,495.08
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 and the 72,126 swing high (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-highs sequence; the ema50 at 72,495 sits above that
Loss of the 71,371 higher low reopens the 71,166 session low and the $71K area
Fed's Daly (speaking now) and Schmid in ~13 min could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is ~$329 per bar
Lower highs and higher lows inside 71,166–72,126 below both EMAs.
The selloff from 74,719 accelerated through London and into NY to a 71,166 session low as the Nvidia shock and ETF outflows weighed. The bounce stalled at the 72,126 bounce high, just under the selloff fib 23.6% retracement. Price is now coiling between lower highs and a 71,371 higher low, below a falling ema20 at 71,923 and ema50 at 72,522, with RSI(14) back at 44 from sub-20 and ATR near $342.
Support: 71,371.40, 71,165.63
Resistance: 71,923.49, 72,125.57, 72,521.54
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 71,371 higher low reopens the 71,166 session low, then the $70K psych level
Close above the ema20 and 72,126 bounce high breaks the lower highs sequence
Fed's Daly (7 min) and Schmid (27 min) could jolt this coil; Williams at 23:30 UTC
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY flush · RSI 40 · price 71,605.14
Lower highs from 72,125 and higher lows from 71,165, a tightening range under ema20.
London broke below the Asian range and NY extended the slide to a 71,165 ny low as the Nvidia CEO exit dragged tech and crypto lower. Since then price has posted a higher low at 71,371 and a lower high, with the 17:15 UTC push rejected at the ema20 near 71,936. RSI(14) has recovered to 40 from sub-20 and ATR is about 344 points, so bars are still running wide.
Support: 71,371.40, 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,936.40, 72,550.95
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 71,371 higher low reopens the 71,165 ny low and the 71,000 psych handle
M15 close above the 72,125 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline, with ema50 at 72,551 next
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could break the range in either direction
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger rates risk for the $71K–$72K zone
Lower highs from London; 71165–72125 range forming after the NY low.
Lower highs through London gave way to an accelerated drop in the first hours of NY. The Nvidia-led tech selloff took BTC to a 71165.63 session low, with RSI(14) recovering from 16 to 37.8 and ATR nearly doubling to ~$352. The 16:00 UTC bounce was rejected at 72125, the 50% retrace of the NY selloff and just above ema20, and the higher low at 71371 now frames a 71165–72125 range below both EMAs.
Support: 71,371.40, 71,165.63
Resistance: 72,657.35
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 72125 bounce high and ema20 breaks the lower-highs trendline, with ema50 at 72657 next
Loss of the 71371 higher low reopens the session low at 71165; below that, psych $71K marks the lowest since August
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) remarks could shift rate pricing and this read
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; bounce capped at 50% fib.
London broke the Asian range low at 73,344 and NY pushed through $72K on the Nvidia-led tech selloff, printing a session low at 71,165.63. The bounce stalled at 72,125.57, a lower high just above the ema20 near the 50% NY leg fib, under descending resistance. Price is back near 71,500 with RSI(14) at 30.6 after sub-20 readings, and ATR(14) has expanded to about $350 per bar.
Support: 71,165.63
Resistance: 72,125.57, 72,698.67
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 72,125.57 lower high and the ema20 would break the lower-high chain, with the ema50 at 72,698.67 above that.
Failure to hold the 71,165.63 session low exposes the $71K round number, the digest's line for fresh lows since August.
A close above the descending resistance from 72,963 would neutralise the NY downtrend read.
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; US PPI follows Fri 13:30 UTC.
NY hours extended London's slide below 73,000 as the Nvidia/Huang shock hit tech, printing a session low at 71,165.63. The 71,166 low came with a mild bullish RSI divergence. The bounce stalled at the ema20 near 72,122, close to the 38.2% of the selloff fib, and lower highs stay intact under the descending tl, with RSI(14) back to 37.3 from sub-20 and ATR(14) at about 34,135 pips ($341).
Support: 71,165.63, 71,000.00
Resistance: 72,122.13, 72,752.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 71,166 session low puts the 71,000 psych level, the post-August low, in play
M15 close above the ema20 at 72,122 and the descending tl breaks the lower-high chain, exposing the ema50 at 72,752
Goolsbee is speaking now, with Daly at 18:10 UTC and Schmid at 18:30 UTC; hawkish Fed remarks could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, relief bounce off a flush low · RSI 39 · price 71,849.87
Lower-high/lower-low chain through London and NY; base at 71,165–71,260, bounce capped at the 50% fib.
Nvidia-led risk-off extended the slide from London into NY, flushing to a 71,165 session low as RSI(14) bottomed at 16.1 and ATR(14) expanded to ~34,900 pips. The bounce hit rejection at the 72,125 bounce high, the 50% fib of the 73,067–71,165 leg. Price is back near the 38.2% level and still below the ema20 at 72,154.
Support: 71,000.00
Resistance: 72,154.15, 72,680.96
What it said to watch
Fed's Goolsbee speaks in ~14 min, with Daly and Schmid later. Hawkish pushback could reverse the bounce quickly.
Loss of the 71,165 session low reopens the 71,000 round number, the post-August low.
An M15 close above the 72,125 bounce high and the ema20 at 72,154 would print the first higher high since the London breakdown.
The 72,681 lower high from the NY sell-off caps the structure. Reclaiming it breaks the lower-high chain.
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; small bounce off the 71,165 session low.
The Nvidia CEO shock and the hawkish rates backdrop drove the NY-session leg lower. BTC lost 72,000 and printed a session low at 71,165, with ATR(14) expanding to about $323 and price below both EMAs. RSI(14) has recovered to 30.4 from sub-20 readings, but the bounce has so far stalled below the 71,769 swing high and the fib 38.2% at about 71,745.
Support: 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,768.96, 72,181.56, 72,680.96
What it said to watch
A close above the 71,769 swing high and the ema20 at 72,182 would break the lower-high chain since the NY open.
Failure to hold the 71,165 session low exposes the 71,000 psych level, which the digest marks as the post-August low.
The lower-high read stays intact while price is below the ny open high at 72,681, the fib anchor for this leg.
Fed's Goolsbee speaks in 27 min (16:30 UTC), with Daly and Schmid later. Any of these could materially shift this read.
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 19 · price 71,308.47
Lower highs and lows; basing above session low.
London broke the Asian range low at 73,344. NY then extended the London-NY leg from 73,562 through $72K to a 71,166 session low as the Nvidia shock and rising yields hit risk. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) oversold at 19.2 and ATR(14) expanded to 31,847.9 pips (~$318), and the last three bars are holding above the session low, capped by the 71,769 lower high.
Support: 71,165.63, 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,768.96, 72,239.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 71,769 lower high would be the first higher high since London
Failure to hold the 71,166 session low exposes the 71,000 round number
Reclaiming the 72,161 breakdown level and the ema20 at 72,240 would undercut the downtrend read
Goolsbee in ~45m and today's 30-year Treasury auction could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain since 74,719; Asian range broken lower, $72K lost in NY.
London broke the 73,345–74,135 Asian range lower, and NY extended through $72K to a 71,166 session low. The Huang resignation, rising yields and ETF outflows hit risk appetite. RSI(14) at 20 is oversold and ATR has doubled to about $327, with price below both EMAs and a falling trendline capping each bounce; the latest lower high sits at 71,769.
Support: 71,165.63, 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,768.96, 72,334.14
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 71,769 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 71,166 session low exposes the 71,000 round number
72k break level (72,162) and ema20 (72,334) sit near the falling trendline, a zone to watch for rejection on any bounce
30-year Treasury auction and Goolsbee in ~1h could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating in NY · RSI 16 · price 71,344.43
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range low broken, $72K lost.
London broke below the Asian range low near 73,344, and the NY session extended the slide through $72K as the Nvidia/Huang shock and rising yields fed risk-off. Price is pressing the 71,166 session low with RSI(14) at 16.1, deeply oversold, and ATR expanding to roughly $332 per bar. Each bounce has stalled below the prior swing high, and price sits below ema20 at 72,430.
Support: 71,165.63, 71,000.00
Resistance: 71,768.96, 72,000.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 71,166 session low and the 71,000 round number extends the lower-low chain into fresh multi-month lows
Recovery above the 71,769 swing high and the 72,000 psych level, near the 23.6% fib of the day's decline, would print the first higher high since the NY open
A reclaim of ema20 at 72,430 would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
RSI(14) has held sub-20 for four bars; a lower low in price with RSI rising would flag bullish divergence
The $25B 30-year Treasury auction and Goolsbee in ~74 minutes could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY, $72K floor broken.
London broke below the Asian range and NY extended the slide through $72K after the 13:30 UTC claims print, in line with the hot-CPI, rising-yield and tech-selloff backdrop. Descending highs from the 73,068 lower high have capped each bounce, with a fresh session low at 71,215. RSI(14) at 18.1 is deeply oversold, ATR(14) has doubled to about 32,494 pips ($325), and price sits below a falling ema20 at 72,547 and the ema50.
Support: 71,214.57, 71,000.00
Resistance: 72,546.86, 73,067.53
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 71,215 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 71,000 round number
Recovery above the 72,162 prior low, near the 38.2% fib of the selloff around 72,110, would reclaim the old $72K floor
A close above ema20 at 72,547 and the descending highs line breaks the intraday downtrend read
A new low with RSI holding above its 17.2 trough would flag bullish divergence
Fed's Barr now, Goolsbee in about 90 minutes and the 30-year auction could jolt yields and shift this read
Lower-high chain since London; Asian range low and $72K broken, fresh session low.
BTC broke below the Asian range low near 73,344 during London. It has since printed descending highs, then pushed through the 72,161 broken low and psych 72k into the NY open to a session low at 71,509, with the hot-CPI, risk-off tone still weighing. RSI(14) is at 17.2, which is extreme for M15. ATR(14) has doubled to 30,729 pips (~$307), so the selloff is stretched but still expanding.
Support: 71,509.25
Resistance: 72,651.46
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 71,509 session low exposes psych 71k
Reclaim of psych 72k and the 72,161 broken low would ease the breakdown read
Close above ema20 at 72,651 and the descending highs line would break the lower-high chain
Fed's Barr in ~14 min, then Goolsbee, Daly and Schmid, could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and range expanding · RSI 19 · price 71,784.94
Lower highs since 10:15 UTC; $72K area broken in first hour of NY.
BTC's slide from the London session carried into the first hour of NY. Price broke below the 72k psych area to a 71,647 session low, and RSI(14) sits at 18.9, deep oversold. The drivers are Nasdaq weakness and a fifth day of ETF outflows. Lower highs at 73,562, 73,068 and the 72,681 lower high define the move. Price is below a falling ema20 at 72,769, and ATR(14) has doubled to 28,067 pips (~$281).
Support: 71,647.10
Resistance: 72,680.96, 72,769.27
What it said to watch
A quick reclaim of 72k psych would turn the break into a false break.
An M15 close above the 72,681 lower high and the ema20 (72,769) breaks the lower-high chain.
A move back into the 50–61.8% fib of the drop from 73,562 (72,605–72,830) would overlap the lower high and the ema20.
Failure to hold the 71,647 session low leaves the 70k psych level as the next reference.
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales at 15:00 UTC, plus today's $25B 30Y auction, could shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since 10:15 UTC, Asian range broken to the downside.
BTC's sell-off broke the Asian low at 73,344 during London and extended to a 72,077 session low in the first hour of NY. Each bounce since 10:15 UTC has set a lower high under a descending trendline, with risk-off from the Nasdaq/Nvidia slide and ETF outflows behind the move. RSI(14) at 27.3 is oversold with a tentative bullish divergence against the 13:00 UTC low, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 24,700 pips ($247).
Support: 72,076.62, 72,000.00
Resistance: 72,680.96, 72,879.61, 73,344.23
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 72,681 lower high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain, with ema20 at 72,880 next
Failure to hold the 72,077 session low exposes the 72,000 round number
Reclaim of the asian low at 73,344 would neutralise the London breakdown
Barr speech and Existing Home Sales in ~44 min, plus the 30Y auction today, could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 28 · price 72,390.28
Lower highs and lower lows since the 73562 London high; weak bounce under the descending trendline.
London broke below its 73180 morning low at 11:30 UTC, and the 13:30 UTC claims bar extended the slide to a 72161 session low. That came as the Nvidia-led tech selloff and ETF outflows kept pressure on. The rebound stalled at the 72681 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib of the selloff, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) oversold at 28.4 and ATR expanding to about $234.
Resistance: 72,680.96, 72,935.12, 73,180.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 72681 bounce high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence and put ema20 at 72935 in play
Failure to hold the 72161 session low exposes the $72K psych level
Reclaiming the 73180 london low would neutralise the morning breakdown
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~1h, plus the 30Y auction today, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 74,719 high; London range broken, NY flush to 72,162.
London took out the Asian low near 73,345 and broke the 73,180–73,560 morning range. The move extended to a 72,162 session low into the first hour of NY as Nvidia-led risk-off and ETF outflows weighed, with ATR(14) expanding to 23,047 pips (about $230). The in-line claims bounce has stalled at the 72,681 bounce high, just under the 38.2% retrace, with price below a falling ema20 and ema50 and RSI(14) recovering from 24 to 30.
Support: 72,351.00, 72,161.53, 72,000.00
Resistance: 72,681.00, 72,989.94, 73,180.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 72,681 bounce high and 38.2% fib opens the ema20 at 72,990
Failure to hold the 72,351 rebound low exposes the 72,162 session low and the 72,000 round number
A close back above the 73,180 london low and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Hammack in about 13 min and Barr at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Core PPI follows tomorrow
Lower highs since Asia; Asian range broken lower, testing 38.2% retrace.
London broke the Asian low at 73,344 and the lower-high chain ran into a 72,161 session low at 13:00 UTC, as Nvidia-led risk-off and a fifth day of ETF outflows weighed. Price is bouncing into the 38.2% fib near 72,700, below the 72,964 lower high and a falling ema20 at 73,042. RSI(14) has recovered to 30 from a 24 dip and ATR(14) has expanded to about $230.
Support: 72,000.00
Resistance: 72,963.65, 73,041.92, 73,344.23
What it said to watch
Jobless claims landed on the 13:30 bar; Hammack speaks at 14:00 UTC and could shift the read
M15 close above the 72,964 lower high and the ema20 breaks the lower-high chain
A reclaim of the asian low at 73,344 would turn the range break into a false break, with the descending trendline overhead
Failure to hold the 72,161 session low resumes the leg toward the 72,000 psych level
Lower highs since 74135; tight consolidation at the London low.
London broke the Asian low at 73455 and extended the lower-high trendline into a 72663 session low, with ETF outflows and the post-CPI USD bid weighing. Price sits below both EMAs and ATR has expanded to roughly $189. Since the low, price has held a tight 72663–73068 range under the bounce high, and RSI's 28.6 trough is a minor bullish divergence against the 27.3 reading at the breakdown.
Support: 72,662.98, 72,500.00
Resistance: 73,067.53, 73,173.71, 73,455.11
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), due within the first hour of NY, could break the 72663–73068 consolidation either way
An M15 close below the 72663 session low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 72500 round number
A close back above the ema20 at 73174 neutralises the breakdown; the asian low at 73455 and the lower-high trendline sit above that
Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC and Barr at 15:00 UTC add NY-hours headline risk
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 32 · price 72,849.77
London range break below Asian low, lower-high chain intact.
London broke the Asian low at 73,344, and the London drop from the 73,562 lower high ran to a 72,663 session low. Price sits below both EMAs, and ATR(14) has expanded to ~19,047 pips. RSI(14) has lifted to 32 from a 27 dip, but the bounce high at 73,068 caps for now as BTC tracks the AI-equity slide and the fifth day of ETF outflows.
Support: 72,662.98, 72,500.00
Resistance: 73,067.53, 73,208.33, 73,344.23
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), ~45 min out, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 73,068 bounce high and the ema20 at 73,208 would ease the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the Asian low at 73,344 would turn the London range break into a false break
Lower-high trendline from 74,135 now sits near 73,400 and caps any rebound
Failure to hold the 72,663 session low exposes the 72,500 round number
Lower highs since 00:45 UTC; London broke the Asian range low.
London broke the Asian range low near 73,345, a lower high at 73,562 capped the 10:15 UTC bounce, and the late-morning flush set a session low at 72,663 before the 12:00 bar rejected it and closed near 73,000. RSI(14) has recovered to 34.5 from sub-30 and ATR(14) has expanded to about $180 per bar. Price sits below ema20 (73,301) and ema50 as ETF outflows and AI-equity weakness weigh.
Support: 72,662.98
Resistance: 73,180.41, 73,301.00, 73,561.99
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), the 30Y auction and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the prior low at 73,180 and ema20 (73,301) would undo the London range break
Failure to hold the 72,663 session low extends the lower-low chain
The lower-high line from 74,135 meets the 61.8% retracement of the 74,135–72,663 drop near 73,562
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after breakdown · RSI 28 · price 72,865.75
Lower highs since the Asia high; London broke the prior low.
Lower highs have stepped down from the 74,135 Asia high. At 11:30 UTC London broke the 73,180 prior low and set a session low at 72,690, with RSI(14) oversold at 27.8 and price below the ema20 at 73,333 and the ema50. Hot-CPI rate pressure and ongoing ETF outflows keep BTC heavy into the NY open. ATR(14) is about $163 per bar.
Support: 72,689.95
Resistance: 73,180.41, 73,333.15, 73,561.99
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 73,180 prior low would turn the breakdown into a false break
Lower-high trendline near 73,450 and the 73,562 lower high cap the move; a close above them breaks the sequence
Failure to hold the 72,690 session low extends the lower-low chain; the ema20 at 73,333 is the first overhead test
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a fresh flush · RSI 27 · price 72,891.73
Lower highs since 00:45 UTC; London broke the Asian range low and then the 73180 swing low.
London extended the overnight run of lower highs. It cut through the Asian range low near 73455 and the 73180 swing low, and the 11:30 UTC bar flushed to a session low at 72848, a range about 2.4x ATR. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.3 and price sits below a falling ema20 (73381) and ema50 (73568), in line with the yields-driven pressure since Tuesday's hot CPI.
Support: 72,847.77, 72,500.00
Resistance: 73,180.41, 73,381.19, 73,561.99
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 73180 broken low would turn the 11:30 UTC flush into a false break
A bounce capped at the lower high near 73562, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 74719–72848 drop and the lower-highs trendline, keeps the descending sequence intact
Acceptance below the 72848 session low opens the path to the 72500 round number
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC land around the NY open, and the 30Y auction follows; any yield reaction could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 73,163.43
Lower-high chain from 74135; Asian range low broken in London.
The 01:15 UTC bounce stalled at 74135. Since then BTC has printed lower highs. London broke the Asian range low near 73455 and has now slipped under the 73180 swing to a fresh session low at 73071, the 73000 round number just below. Price sits under the falling ema20 (73435) and ema50 (73597) with RSI(14) at 37.4, not oversold. The move fits the heavy tone on ETF outflows and yield pressure into today's 30Y auction.
Support: 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,435.13, 73,561.99, 73,596.80
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73562 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 73071 session low exposes the 73000 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 73435 would signal the London selling is stalling
Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC, Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC and the 30Y auction could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is about $142 per bar
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 73,408.16
Lower-high chain under a falling trendline; London broke the Asian low, bounce stalled at 38.2%.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 74135 Asian high. London broke the Asian range low to a 73180 session low, and the bounce stalled at the 73562 swing high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib and the falling trendline. Price sits back under the ema20 (73468) and ema50 (73622) with RSI 44, as ETF outflows and AI-equity weakness keep rallies capped. ATR is about $148.
Support: 73,303.27, 73,180.41
Resistance: 73,468.09, 73,561.99
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73562 swing high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; ema50 at 73622 is next overhead
Loss of the 73303 prior low and then the 73180 session low extends the lower-low sequence
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak run from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain; London swept prior low, bouncing below EMAs.
Since the 74,719 NY peak, BTC has printed lower highs through Asia. ETF outflows and AI-equity weakness kept rallies capped. Early London swept yesterday's 73,303 prior low to a 73,180 London low before reclaiming it, but the bounce stalled at a 73,562 lower high and price sits below the falling ema20 (73,476) and ema50 (73,632), with RSI at 46.
Support: 73,303.27, 73,180.41
Resistance: 73,475.66, 73,561.99, 73,631.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,562 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the ema50 at 73,632 into play
Loss of the 73,303 prior low and then the 73,180 London low extends the lower-low sequence
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 48 · price 73,446.12
Lower highs from 74719; London swept the Asian low, price now pivoting on ema20.
BTC has carved lower highs since the 74719 late-NY peak, with ETF outflows and post-CPI dollar strength still weighing. Early London swept below the Asian low and yesterday's 73303 floor to a 73180 session low before a higher low at 73292. Price is now back on ema20 and capped at 73562, the recent high and roughly the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and ATR near $157 per bar.
Support: 73,292.28, 73,180.41
Resistance: 73,561.99, 73,639.70, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 at 73640 breaks the lower-high chain and opens the asian high at 74135
Failure to hold the 73292 higher low exposes the 73180 session low again
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, then Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the NY-session high; London broke the Asian low.
BTC has carved lower highs under a falling trendline since the 74,719 NY-session high. London broke the 73,344 Asian low to a 73,180 London low, and the bounce has stalled back at that level. Price is below a declining ema20 (73,479) and ema50 (73,646), with RSI(14) at 41 and ATR near $151, as ETF outflows and the post-CPI USD bid keep rallies capped.
Support: 73,344.23, 73,180.41
Resistance: 73,453.11, 73,479.26, 73,646.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,453 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 73,180 London low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the ema50 at 73,646 brings the 38.2% fib of the NY high to London low drop (~73,768) into view
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY-session top; bounce testing the falling trendline.
London broke the asian low at 73,344 and set a 73,180 london low. Price has bounced back to 73,407, testing the falling trendline from the 74,135 Asian high just under the ema20 at 73,493. The lower-high chain from the 74,719 NY-session top is intact, with spot-ETF outflows and a soft risk tone keeping BTC heavy; RSI(14) 44, ATR(14) about $151.
Support: 73,344.23, 73,180.41
Resistance: 73,492.63, 73,626.92
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 and the falling trendline near 73,490 breaks the lower-high chain, exposing the 73,627 lower high
A drop back below the asian low at 73,344 puts the 73,180 london low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee) could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range low; retesting it from below.
London open broke the Asian range low at 73344 and swept the prior low at 73303, printing a 73180 session low. ETF outflows and the post-CPI USD bid are weighing, and the 74135–73180 leg extends the lower-high chain. Price is retesting the asian low from below, under the ema20 (73500) and ema50 (73668), with RSI(14) at 39.3 and ATR at 15,466 pips (~$155).
Support: 73,303.27, 73,180.41
Resistance: 73,344.23, 73,500.16, 73,667.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 73344 asian low negates the London range break
Failure to hold the 73180 session low extends the lower-low sequence; the 73303 prior low is the first test
Close above the lower-high trendline (~73520) and the ema20 at 73500 breaks the lower-high chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since late NY · RSI 40 · price 73,393.17
Asian range broken lower in London, early bounce off session low.
London broke the Asian range low at 73,344 and printed a session low at 73,180 before bouncing back above the 73,303 prior low. The chain of lower highs from the 74,719 late-NY peak is intact, with price below a falling ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) at 39.8 and ATR near 157 points. The tape matches the heavy post-CPI, ETF-outflow tone.
Support: 73,303.27, 73,180.41, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,516.99, 73,626.92, 73,681.08
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 73,517 and the 73,627 lower high would break the lower-highs chain; ema50 at 73,681 sits just above
Failure to hold the 73,303 prior low puts the 73,180 session low back in focus, and a break there exposes the 73,000 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range low; fresh session low at 73,225.
Lower highs have been capped by the falling trendline since the 74,719 NY-evening top. The London session took out the 73,344 Asian low and yesterday's 73,303 NY low, printing a 73,225 session low with RSI(14) at 35 and price below the ema20 (73,534) and ema50, as ETF outflows and a firm USD weigh. ATR(14) is about 15,200 pips (~$152 per bar).
Support: 73,225.36, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,344.23, 73,534.34, 73,626.92
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 73,344 asian low would turn the break into a false break
A break of the 73,225 session low exposes the 73,000 round number
A close above the 73,627 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 74,718 since late NY; early London pressing the Asian low.
BTC has printed a lower-high chain from 74,718 in late NY (74,135, 74,010, then 73,627) and opened London an hour ago testing the Asian low at 73,344. Price sits below the ema20 (73,562) and ema50 (73,712), with RSI(14) at 45 and no extreme. ATR(14) has compressed to 14,115 pips (~$141), and the digest points to steady ETF outflows weighing on price.
Support: 73,344.23, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,562.03, 73,626.92, 73,711.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,344 asian low exposes 73,303, yesterday's prior low and double base
A reclaim of the 73,627 lower high and the ema50 at 73,712 would break the lower-high chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the Asia open; early London capped below the 38.2% retrace and drifting back toward the Asian low.
BTC has carved lower highs since the 74,135 Asia open high. Price sits under a falling ema20 at 73,566 and ema50 at 73,720, with heavy ETF outflows in the backdrop. Early London stalled at 73,627, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian drop, and is fading back toward the 73,344 Asian low. ATR has compressed to about $143 and RSI sits at 41, so the move is a grind lower rather than a flush.
Support: 73,344.23, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,566.45, 73,626.92, 73,719.60
What it said to watch
Loss of the 73,344 asian low exposes the 73,303 prior low, a level that held twice during yesterday's NY session
An M15 close above the 73,627 london high and the lower-highs trendline undercuts the downtrend read; the ema50 at 73,720 sits above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could break the current compression
BTC has held below both falling EMAs since the 74,719 high gave way overnight, with the hot-CPI hawkish repricing weighing on rallies. Asia printed a chain of lower highs under a trendline from 74,010, with RSI(14) at 40.1 and ATR(14) compressing to about $149. Early London is pinned between the 73,344 Asian low and the ema20 at 73,578, with the 73,627 London high capping so far.
Support: 73,344.23, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,577.75, 73,626.92, 73,730.23
What it said to watch
Close above the 73,627 london high and the Asia lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; ema50 at 73,730 is next
Failure to hold the 73,344 asian low exposes the 73,303 prior low from yesterday's NY session
A recovery past the 50% retracement of the asian drop near 73,740 would neutralise the Asia selloff
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~5h) and the Fed speakers that follow could expand compressed ATR sharply
Lower highs from 74,135 Asian high, lows holding near 73,344.
Since the 74,135 Asian high, BTC has printed a chain of lower highs. Price is under a falling EMA20 (73,592) and EMA50 (73,742), and early London is drifting just above the 73,344 Asian low as the post-CPI pressure lingers. RSI(14) sits at a neutral 44.8 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 15,219 pips ($152).
Support: 73,344.23, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,592.13, 73,667.87, 73,742.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,344 Asian low exposes the 73,303 prior low from yesterday's NY session
Close above the ema20 and the 73,668 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain; ema50 at 73,742 is next
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BTC printed a chain of lower highs from 74,135 through the Asia session, extending the post-CPI slide from yesterday's 74,719 high. A twin low at the 73,344 Asian low and 73,349 has lifted price into London open back up to the ema20 at 73,597, still capped below it. RSI(14) is recovering to 46.6 from 37.7 and ATR is compressing to about $158.
Support: 73,344.23, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,597.09, 73,667.87, 73,750.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,668 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and the Asia sell sequence
Close above the ema50 near 73,750 would shift the read toward a wider range
Failure to hold the 73,344 Asian low exposes yesterday's 73,303 prior low (NY double low)
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 74010; Asian low at 73344 tested twice.
BTC has carved lower highs from the 74010 swing high through the Asia session, pressing the Asian low at 73344 into the London open. Price sits below a falling ema20 (73599) and ema50 (73757), RSI(14) at 41. ATR has compressed to ~16,150 pips ($161) as the post-CPI hike-fear drift slows, and buyers stepped in at 73344–73349 twice in the last hour.
Support: 73,344.23, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,598.89, 73,757.01, 74,010.49
What it said to watch
Close below the 73344 Asian low exposes yesterday's NY prior low at 73303, tested twice
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and ema20 at 73599 breaks the Asia-session lower-high chain
ema50 at 73757 caps any bounce; a reclaim brings the 74010 swing high back into view
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), then Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 74135 Asia high, pressing the session low.
BTC has carried hot-CPI hike fears through the Asia session, grinding lower from the 74719 peak. A descending trendline of lower highs off 74135 is capping price below both EMAs, and the 73344 session low is being tested ahead of London open, with yesterday's 73303 prior low just beneath. RSI(14) at 43 shows no extreme, and ATR has compressed to about $165 per bar.
Support: 73,344.23, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,768.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73303 prior low extends the lower-low chain beyond the session low
Close above the 73667 lower high, clearing the ema20 and the descending trendline, breaks the downtrend read; the ema50 at 73768 sits above
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A chain of lower highs from the 74135 Asian high has pushed BTC down to the Asian low at 73344 into the European open. Price is below a falling ema20 and ema50, and RSI(14) sits at 37.7 as hot-CPI hike repricing keeps pressure on. ATR has compressed to about $163 (16309 pips), so the move is grinding lower rather than flushing, with the prior low at 73303 just beneath.
Support: 73,344.23, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,618.31, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73303 prior low extends the lower-low sequence beyond Wednesday's double low
Close back above the ema20 at 73618 and the lower-highs trendline would challenge the intraday drift
Reclaim of the 73807 lower high breaks the sequence of lower highs and puts the 74135 Asian high back in view
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late in the Asia session, a run of lower highs from the 74,135 Asian high is compressing into a flat floor at the 73,455 Asian low. Price sits below a falling ema20 (73,656) and ema50 (73,805), with RSI(14) at 39.1 as post-CPI hike fears keep BTC heavy. ATR has contracted to about $159 (15,942 pips) into the London open.
Support: 73,455.11, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,655.80, 73,804.77, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,455 Asian low exposes the 73,386 late NY low and the 73,303 NY low, where the double low formed during NY hours
Close back above the ema20 at 73,656 and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence; the ema50 at 73,805 is next
Reclaim of the 74,135 Asian high would invalidate the overnight downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain pressing a flat 73,450–73,500 floor.
Late Asia session, ahead of London open. BTC has printed a lower-high chain since the late-NY drop from 74,719, with the Asian low at 73,455 holding as a floor and price capped under the ema20 (73,673) and ema50 (73,818) as post-CPI hike fears weigh. RSI(14) 43.9 and ATR(14) compressing to ~16,115 pips ($161) show a tightening range.
Support: 73,455.11, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,673.46, 73,817.70, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
Break below the 73,455 Asian low exposes the 73,386 swing low and the 73,303 NY low
M15 close above the ema50 at 73,818 breaks the lower-high chain; 74,135 Asian high is next
Reclaim of the ema20 at 73,673 would ease the immediate pressure on the Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower-high chain from 74,135; price below both EMAs.
Late Asia session: price has stepped lower in a lower-high chain from the 74,135 session high, setting an asia low at 73,455. It now sits under a falling ema20 (73,681) and pressing the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) 43.5 and ATR(14) easing to ~16,660 pips ($167). The tone stays heavy after Tuesday's hot CPI, and the double ny low at 73,303 is the next reference below.
Support: 73,455.11, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,680.56, 73,826.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,760 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the Asia sequence, exposing the ema50 at 73,826
Failure to hold the 73,455 asia low into London open exposes the 73,303 ny low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, lows grinding into 73,455.
Late NY's rejection from 74,719 dropped price to the 73,386 NY low, and Asia has since printed a chain of lower highs from the 74,135 Asian high, with lows grinding into the 73,455 Asian low. Price sits below a falling ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) is 39 and ATR has compressed to about $168, a listless tone after the hot CPI print.
Support: 73,455.11, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,689.26, 73,835.67, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,455 Asian low exposes the 73,386 NY low, then the 73,303 double low from yesterday's NY session
A close back above the ema20 at 73,689 and the lower-high trendline would break the Asian sequence of lower highs; the ema50 at 73,836 sits above that
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could reprice the intraday range
Lower highs through Asia, fresh session low at 73,455, price below both EMAs.
Late in the Asia session, ahead of London open, BTC has stepped down through lower highs from the 74,135 Asia high and printed a fresh session low at 73,455. Price sits below a falling ema20 (73,707) and ema50 (73,849), with the hot-CPI USD bid still weighing. RSI(14) at 38.7 and ATR compressing to about $176 point to a grind rather than a flush, with the late-NY swing low at 73,386 and the NY low at 73,303 just below.
Support: 73,455.11, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,707.49, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,455 session low exposes the 73,386 swing low and the 73,303 NY low
Recovery through the ema20 at 73,707 and the 73,807 lower high would break the lower-high line
Close back above the 74,135 Asia high invalidates the session downtrend read
London open could expand the compressed Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, price pressing session low.
Late Asia session has printed lower highs from the 74,135 Asian high, and price is now testing the session low at 73,467. It trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 40.4, as the heavy post-CPI tone keeps rebounds capped. ATR has compressed to about $177, so the range is tightening ahead of London open.
Support: 73,467.09, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,728.07, 73,862.46, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,467 session low exposes the 73,386 swing low, then the 73,303 prior low from the NY open
Close back above ema20 at 73,728 and ema50 at 73,862 breaks the lower highs trendline; the 74,135 Asian high is the range top
US Initial Jobless Claims in ~8h, followed by Fed speakers, could materially shift this read
Late in the Asia session, price has made a chain of lower highs from the 74135 asia high and is now pressing the 73468 session low. It sits below ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 37.9 and ATR(14) compressed to about 18,150 pips ($181). Hot-CPI hike pricing keeps BTC heavy ahead of London open, with the 73386 late ny low and the 73303 ny low (a double print at the NY open) below.
Support: 73,468.09, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,745.76, 73,874.80, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 73468 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 73386 late ny low, then the 73303 ny low
A close above the asia lower-highs trendline and ema20 at 73746 invalidates the drift read, with ema50 at 73875 next
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Heavy below both EMAs, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 73,694.84
Lower highs compressing inside Asian range.
BTC is compressing inside the Asian range (73502 asian low to 74135 asian high) after the late-NY drop from 74719 to the 73386 swing low. Lower highs at 74135 and 74010 sit along a descending lower-high line, while the 73560 late dip held above the range floor. Price is below ema20 (73782) and ema50 (73899), RSI 42.5 and ATR easing to ~$185 as post-CPI selling stalls into listless Asia trade.
Support: 73,560.00, 73,502.00, 73,386.00
Resistance: 73,782.00, 74,010.00, 74,135.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-high line and ema20 at 73782 would break the compression toward 74010
Failure to hold the 73502 asian low exposes the 73386 swing low
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could expand the range
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing below EMAs · RSI 43 · price 73,639.90
Lower highs since NY peak, ranging in Asian range lower half.
The late-NY slide from the 74,719 high to the 73,386 swing low extended the post-CPI selloff. Asia has since set lower highs at 74,135 and 74,010 on the lower-high trendline and now sits just above the 73,502 asian low, under a declining ema20 (73,796) and ema50 (73,909). RSI(14) is 43 and ATR has compressed to about $191 from roughly $247, a sign the range is narrowing.
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,796.26, 73,909.29, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 73,502 asian low exposes the 73,386 swing low and the 73,303 prior low, a double low from NY
M15 close above ema20 at 73,796 and the lower-high trendline would challenge the downtrend read, with ema50 at 73,909 and the 74,135 asian high above
A move back toward 74,135 would retrace about 56% of the 74,719–73,386 drop on the fib
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speakers through Thursday could materially shift this read ahead of Friday PPI
04:16 UTC
Downtrend since NY high, range tightening · RSI 45 · price 73,700.83
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range.
The late-NY flush to the 73,386 swing low extended the post-CPI selloff. The Asia session is now coiling between the 73,502 Asian low and the 74,135 Asian high, with highs stepping lower and lows rising. Price sits below a falling ema20 (73,810) and ema50 (73,919), RSI(14) is neutral at 44.6, and ATR(14) has compressed to about $201 (20,096 pips).
Support: 73,630.91, 73,502.05, 73,386.18
Resistance: 73,810.19, 74,010.49, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
A close below the 73,631 minor low and the 73,502 Asian low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 73,386 swing low back in play
A close back above the ema20 and the 74,010 lower high takes the 74,135 Asian high into view and ends the lower-highs read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), followed by the Fed speaker slate, could break the compression
Lower highs off 74,719 against rising Asian lows, a tightening coil.
Price sits in the lower half of the 73,502–74,135 Asian range in early Asia. It is still digesting the late-NY drop from 74,719 to 73,386, which extended the post-CPI liquidation selloff. Lower highs at 74,135, 74,010 and 73,808 sit against rising lows at 73,386, 73,502 and the 73,630 swing low. Price is below the ema20 and ema50, and ATR(14) has compressed to about $209 as the coil tightens.
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18
Resistance: 73,820.44, 74,010.49, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the ema20 at 73,820 and then the 74,010 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence, putting the 74,135 asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 73,630 swing low exposes the 73,502 asian low, then the 73,386 late-ny low
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
Lower highs 74719→74135→74010 with rising lows 73386→73502, inside Asian range.
The late NY-hours drop from the 74690–74719 double top bottomed at the 73386 swing low. Asia session has since held a 73502–74135 range, with a lower high at 74010 and rising lows. Price sits below a falling ema20 (73830) and ema50 (73936), with RSI at 44 and ATR easing to about $219, as the post-CPI liquidation tone keeps BTC heavy.
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,830.09, 74,010.49, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
Break of the 73502 asian low exposes the 73386 swing low and the 73303 ny low
M15 close above the ema20 at 73830 and the 74010 lower high would end the lower-high sequence
Break above the 74135 asian high would extend the session range higher
Initial Jobless Claims and Fedspeak today from 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside Asian range above 73,386 swing low.
A late-NY selloff from 74,718 to the 73,386 swing low extended the post-CPI slide. RSI(14) touched 27.8 at that low and has since recovered to 46. The Asian session has compressed between the 73,502 Asian low and the 74,135 Asian high, with a lower high at 74,010. Price is capped under the ema20 at 73,843, with ATR(14) near $224.
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,843.17, 74,010.49, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 73,502 Asian low exposes the 73,386 swing low and the 73,303 NY low.
An M15 close above the 74,010 lower high and the 74,135 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and the compression read.
Rejection at the ema20 (73,843) keeps the sequence of lower highs intact.
US jobless claims (f/c 195K) at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate later today could materially shift this read.
The NY rally from the 73,303 double low to 74,719 has given back nearly 79%. The Asia session has printed lower highs at 74,135 and 74,010, and ema20 has crossed below ema50. Price is back near the 73,502 Asian low with RSI(14) at 41.8, as post-CPI dollar strength and liquidations keep pressure on BTC.
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,850.69, 74,010.49, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
Break of the 73,502 asian low exposes the 73,386 swing low and the 73,303 double low
M15 close above ema20 (73,851) and the lower-high trendline near 74,010 challenges the downtrend read
Close above the 74,135 asian high negates the lower-high sequence
Jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers later today could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Short-term down, compressing in Asia · RSI 44 · price 73,777.75
The double top at 74,690–74,719 broke in late NY, dropping price to a 73,386 swing low. Asia has since printed lower highs at 74,135 (asian high) and 74,010, while the 73,502 asian low holds. Price trades under a falling ema20 (73,872) and ema50 (73,965) after a bearish ema cross, with post-CPI selling and ETF outflows keeping bounces shallow.
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,872.03, 74,010.49, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,502 asian low exposes the 73,386 swing low and the 73,303 day low from the NY open
Reclaim of ema20 at 73,872, then a close above the 74,010 lower high, breaks the descending-highs sequence
Acceptance above the 74,135 asian high puts price back above the 61.8% fib zone (~74,210) of the late-NY drop
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through the day could materially shift this read; ATR(14) runs ~$234 per bar
Lower highs from 74,719, holding above the 73,386 late-NY low.
Post-CPI pressure on BTC returned late in the NY session. Price fell from the 74,719 high to a 73,386 late-NY low at 23:00 UTC, and the bounce stalled near the 50-61.8% zone of the drop fib at the 74,135 asian high. Asia since printed another lower high at 74,010 with a swing low at 73,502, and price sits below the ema20 (73,888) and ema50 (73,975), RSI 45.9, ATR about $241.
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,888.06, 74,010.49, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,502 swing low exposes the 73,386 late-NY low and the 73,303 NY low
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 74,010 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; the 74,135 asian high is next
Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through the day could materially shift this read
Friday Core PPI is the main catalyst; the digest flags 70,000 as the level in focus on a hot print
02:31 UTC
Down-leg from 74,719, now basing in Asia · RSI 48 · price 73,943.57
Lower highs from 74,719; Asian range 73,502–74,135 with a higher low.
The late-NY drop from 74,719 to the 73,386 prior low extended the post-CPI selloff. The Asia session has since held a 73,502–74,135 range, with the asian low printing a higher low. The last closed bar sits below the ema20 (73,897) and ema50 (73,982), RSI(14) has recovered to 47.8 from 27.8, and ATR(14) is ~24,079 pips (~$241).
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,897.35, 73,981.89, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
Close above the 74,135 asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and clears the 50% drop fib
Holding below the ema20 / ema50 cluster keeps the bounce capped under the lower highs line
Loss of the 73,502 asian low reopens the 73,386 prior low and the 73,303 ny low, which was a double low in yesterday's NY session
Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower high at 74,135 after a double top; Asian range 73,502–74,135.
Post-CPI pressure resumed after a double top at 74,690/74,719. Late NY hours then slid to a 73,386 swing low, with RSI(14) briefly at 27.8. Asia has carved a 73,502–74,135 range under a fresh bearish EMA20/50 cross; price sits mid-range below the ema20 (73,900) and ema50 (73,986), with ATR around $238 per bar.
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,900.27, 73,986.47, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
Close below the 73,502 asian low exposes the 73,386 swing low and the 73,303 ny low
Reclaim of the ema20/ema50 band and a break above the 74,135 asian high would break the lower-high trendline from 74,719
Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through the day could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Downtrend, price below both EMAs · RSI 40 · price 73,600.94
Lower high at 74135 after late-NY double top; testing Asia session low.
Late-NY double top near 74700 gave way into a slide to the 73386 swing low. The Asia bounce was rejected at a 74135 lower high and has rolled back to the 73500 session low, below the ema20 (73917) and ema50 (73996) after a bearish ema cross, with RSI(14) at 39.9. The post-CPI dollar bid keeps BTC heavy, and ATR(14) near $232 sets the typical bar range.
Support: 73,502.05, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,916.53, 73,996.30, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73502 session low exposes the 73386 swing low and the 73303 ny low double-tap from the NY open
Reclaim of the ema20 and ema50 near 73900–74000 challenges the lower-high sequence
Close above the 74135 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the 74719 double top
Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 40 · price 73,623.92
Double top at 74,690–74,719, lower high at 74,135, trading below both EMAs.
The double top at 74,690–74,719 gave way late in the NY session to a 73,386 swing low, extending the post-CPI selloff. The early Asia session bounce stalled at a 74,135 lower high, just above the ema20 at 73,947 and the ema50 at 74,011. Price is back near the 73,524 Asia low, RSI(14) at 40 and ATR about $241 per bar.
Support: 73,524.03, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,947.12, 74,135.36, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
A break below the 73,524 Asia low would put the 73,386 swing low and the 73,303 London low back in play
An M15 close above the ema20 at 73,947 and then the 74,135 lower high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Trendline resistance from the double top through the lower high caps any retrace near 61.8% of the drop
Thu 13:30 UTC Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 74,718; Asia holding above 73,386 swing low.
Rejected at the 74,718 session high late in NY, BTC dropped to a 73,386 swing low. The Asia session bounce stalled at a 74,135 lower high, and price is back near the 73,524 session low, below the ema20 at 73,979, which has crossed under the ema50. Post-CPI pressure persists; RSI(14) 37.4, ATR(14) 24,747 pips (~$247).
Support: 73,524.03, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 73,979.25, 74,135.36
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 73,524 session low exposes the 73,386 swing low and the 73,303 NY low
M15 close above the 74,135 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 74,718 session high
Recapture of the ema20 at 73,979 would ease the downside read
Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed-speaker slate later Thu could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Short-term down, lower high in place · RSI 42 · price 73,699.84
Lower high at 74135 under 74719 peak; price below a bearish ema cross.
The NY rally topped near 74719, and the late-NY slide to the 73386 swing low fits the post-CPI liquidation pressure in the digest. The early Asia bounce met rejection at a 74135 lower high, about 56% of the fib retracement of the 74719→73386 drop. Price is back at the 73669 Asia low, below both EMAs after EMA20 crossed under EMA50, with RSI(14) at 41.7 and ATR(14) around $248 per bar.
Support: 73,669.00, 73,386.00, 73,303.00
Resistance: 74,024.00, 74,135.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 74024 and the 74135 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 73669 asia low exposes the 73386 swing low, then the 73303 ny low double bottom
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate later in the day could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend from day high, rebound fading · RSI 48 · price 73,869.65
Lower high at 74,135 under 74,719; higher low at 73,768 off the Asia low.
BTC shed about $1,330 from the 74,719 day high late in NY into the Asia open, extending the post-CPI selloff, before demand stepped in at the 73,386 Asia low with RSI(14) briefly at 27.8. The rebound stalled at the 74,135 rebound high, just past the 50% of the selloff fib. Price is back below the flattening ema20 (74,052) and ema50 (74,058) with RSI(14) at 47.5.
Support: 73,767.76, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,051.94, 74,135.36, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 73,768 higher low breaks the rebound low trendline and puts the 73,386 Asia low and 73,303 NY low back in play
M15 close above the ema20 and the 74,135 rebound high reopens the path toward the 74,719 day high
ATR(14) at ~24,300 pips (~$243) per bar, expanded since the Asia-open selloff
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Higher low above NY lows; rebound capped at the 50% retrace.
The late-NY flush from the 74,719 session high stalled at 73,386, a higher low above the NY lows at 73,303, and early Asia has bounced back to the 50% retrace near 74,050. That retrace sits under a flat ema cluster where EMA20 (74,058) has just crossed below EMA50 (74,060), and the 74,075 rebound high is capping it so far. RSI has recovered from 27.8 to 48.6, ATR runs about $247 per bar, and the heavy post-CPI tone in BTC remains the backdrop.
Support: 73,895.20, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,058.31, 74,075.42, 74,209.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,075 rebound high and the ema cluster opens the 61.8% fib at 74,210
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 73,895 puts the late-NY low at 73,386 back in focus
Break below the NY lows at 73,303 voids the higher-low trendline
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read, with Fri core PPI the main risk
00:31 UTC
Choppy, rebounding from a post-NY flush · RSI 48 · price 74,061.44
Double top breakdown; late low held above NY low, bounce stalling at 50% fib.
The double top at 74,690–74,720 broke down after the NY close, and price flushed to the 73,386 late low as RSI hit 27.8. That low held above the 73,303 NY low on a line of rising lows, in keeping with the thin-demand, post-CPI tone. The early Asia session bounce has reached the 50% drop fib near 74,050. There it is testing the flat, converged ema20/ema50 (~74,061) under the 74,075 bounce high.
Support: 73,767.76, 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,075.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,075 bounce high and the 61.8% drop fib (~74,210) opens the 74,370 spike high
Rejection at the drop fib and a loss of the 73,768 pullback low returns focus to the 73,386 late low
Break of the 73,303 NY low would break the rising lows line and extend the lower-low sequence
ATR ~$252 per bar; Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower high after late-NY flush · RSI 42 · price 73,828.69
Double top at the day high, sharp drop, bounce capped below EMAs.
Late-NY sellers knocked BTC from the 74,719 day high, a double top with 74,690, down to a late low at 73,386, extending the post-CPI selloff. The bounce stalled at 74,046, a bounce high near the 50% fib and just under the ema20 and ema50 cluster near 74,065. Early Asia trades below both EMAs with RSI 41.6 and ATR near $249 per bar.
Support: 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,046.45, 74,066.04, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 74,066 and the 74,046 bounce high would break the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 73,386 late low exposes the 73,303 ny low from the NY session
ema20 rolling under ema50 would confirm the momentum shift seen in falling RSI
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and heavy Fedspeak can materially move this read
Double top at 74.7K broke lower; dead-cat bounce into 50% retrace.
The NY-session double top at the 74,718 session high gave way late in NY. BTC dropped to a 73,386 swing low, consistent with the post-CPI hike-fear tone and thin spot demand, and RSI(14) bottomed at 27.8. The Asia-open rebound is now retesting the 50% retracement near 74,050, just under the falling ema20 (74,095) and ema50 (74,074), with the 61.8% fib at 74,210 above.
Support: 73,386.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,095.12, 74,209.70
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the ema20 and 61.8% fib at 74,210 would neutralise the late-NY breakdown
Rejection at the ema20/ema50 cluster that sends price back to the 73,386 swing low keeps the pullback read intact
A break of the 73,303 NY low prints a lower low beneath the day's range
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR(14) near $247 per bar sets the expected bar size