The post-PPI spike to 70,094 drew no follow-through and was rejected. The 68,008–69,050 afternoon range then gave way in late NY, and price is printing a new session low near 67,854, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 39 and not stretched. The Asian low at 67,506 is the next reference below, while the old range floor and the lower-highs line cap rebounds; ATR(14) is about $261.
Support: 67,854.27, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,008.10, 68,524.08, 69,049.96
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 68,008 range floor would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 67,506 asian low extends the lower-low chain to a fresh 12-week low
Reclaim of ema20 at 68,524 and the lower-highs line needed to shift the read; range top at 69,050 above
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~45 min) could jolt a thin Friday-night tape
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through late NY · RSI 38 · price 68,249.84
Lower highs and lower lows below falling EMAs; repeated tests of the 68,000 area.
The soft-PPI spike to 70,094 fully reversed amid risk-off. Late-NY selling then took BTC through the 68,000 area, which held at 68,008 after the post-PPI drop, to a session low at 67,910. Price sits below a falling ema20 at 68,582 with lower highs intact; RSI(14) at 38.2 has made a higher low against the lower price low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR(14) expands to 27,144 pips (~$271).
Support: 67,910.21, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,418.65, 68,581.78, 69,049.96
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 68,419 lower high and the ema20 at 68,582 breaks the late-NY lower-highs line
Loss of the 67,910 session low exposes the 67,506 day low set late in the Asia session
Reclaim of the 69,050 swing high needed to neutralise the downtrend read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, into thin weekend liquidity, could materially shift this read
22:27 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since PPI spike · RSI 33 · price 68,261.82
Lower highs at 69,050 and 68,419; retesting 68k floor.
The soft-PPI spike to 70,094 was fully faded. A late-NY leg from 21:00 UTC dropped back to the 68k floor (68,004), with RSI(14) touching 29 before recovering to 33.4 and price below both EMAs. Lower highs at 69,050 and the 68,419 bounce high cap the tape, and the Asian-session day low at 67,506 is the next reference below.
Support: 68,004.11, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,418.65, 68,621.67, 69,049.96
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 68k floor exposes the 67,506 day low
Reclaim of the 68,419 bounce high and ema20 at 68,622 eases the lower-highs sequence
Close above the 69,050 lower high breaks the post-PPI downtrend structure
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~90 min) into thin weekend liquidity could shift this read
Lower highs since the PPI spike; late NY retest of the 68,008 swing low.
The post-PPI spike to 70,094 was fully faded. A late NY session sell-off from the 69,050 lower high has now retested the 68,008 swing low, printing 68,004 with RSI(14) at 29 (oversold). Price sits below a declining ema20 and the ema50, and ATR is expanding to about $253 per bar, in line with the extreme-fear tone.
Support: 68,004.11, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,719.36, 69,049.96
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 68,004 swing low exposes the Asia low at 67,506
Reclaim of the ema20 at 68,719 eases the immediate downside read
Break above the 69,050 lower high invalidates the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (about 2h) could materially shift this read during thin weekend liquidity
20:47 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI fade, below both EMAs · RSI 49 · price 68,867.16
Compressing 68,700–69,050 range in late NY session.
Late NY, BTC is boxed in a 68,700–69,050 range after the soft-PPI spike to the 70,094 PPI high faded to 68,008. The range top sits on the 50% level of that fade with the ema50 at 69,030 just below, where supply has capped three times. Price is fractionally below the ema20, RSI(14) is a neutral 48.5 and ATR(14) has contracted to ~23,226 pips ($232).
Support: 68,700.34, 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,029.76, 69,049.96, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,050 range top and ema50 breaks the range and the 50% fade level
Failure to hold the 68,700 range low exposes the 68,008 NY low
Loss of the 67,506 Asia low, the lowest since August, sets a fresh lower-low with crowded futures OI
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could break the compression
Tight consolidation 68,700–69,050 under the 50% fib.
The soft PPI print at the NY open spiked BTC to the 70,094 ppi spike high. The move then fully reversed to a 68,008 ny low, holding above the 67,506 asia low. Since then, late in the NY session, price has compressed between the 68,700 range low and the 69,050 range top, which has capped three times at the 50% fib and just above ema50 (69,037); price sits fractionally under ema20 (68,871), RSI 49 and ATR shrinking to 24,275 pips (~$243).
Support: 68,700.34, 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,049.96, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,050 range top (50% fib, ema50) opens the 69,480 london high and the 70,094 ppi spike
Loss of the 68,700 range low exposes the 68,008 ny low, then the 67,506 asia low (lowest since August)
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could break the current compression
20:17 UTC
Downtrend, now coiling under ema50 · RSI 53 · price 68,998.01
Higher lows off 68,008 NY low, capped near 69,050.
The softer PPI print spiked BTC to a 70,094 ppi high at 13:30 UTC, but it was rejected and sold to a 68,008 ny low in early NY hours. Late NY has since built rising lows, with the latest higher low at 68,700. Price is wedged between the ema20 (68,871) and the ema50 (69,044), which lines up with the 50% retrace of the PPI drop; RSI is a neutral 52.5 and ATR is contracting.
Support: 68,870.99, 68,700.34, 68,008.10
Resistance: 69,044.44, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 / 69,050 cap opens the path to the 69,480 prior high, then the 70,094 ppi high
Break of the rising lows and the 68,700 higher low puts the 68,008 ny low back in play, with the 67,506 overnight low below it
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (in ~3.7h) could jolt the compressed range
20:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing after NY low · RSI 53 · price 68,943.07
Higher lows under a flat 69,050 cap, range tightening.
The spike to the 70,094 PPI high on the soft print was rejected and faded to a 68,008 NY low. Since then, late-NY trade has built higher lows into a range top near 69,050, where the 50% fib and EMA50 (69,048) converge. Price holds above EMA20 (68,862), RSI(14) is neutral at 53.4 and ATR(14) has compressed to 25,558 pips (~$256).
Support: 68,862.14, 68,700.34, 68,008.10
Resistance: 69,050.00, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,050 range top clears the 50% fib and EMA50, opening the 69,480 London high
Loss of the 68,700 higher low reopens the 68,008 NY low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and thin weekend liquidity near the 67,500–68,000 August-low zone could break the range
Higher lows off 68,008 NY low, capped below ema50.
The cooler PPI spike to the 70,094 ppi high met a rejection and fully reversed into a 68,008 NY low as dollar strength held. A chain of higher lows has since lifted price to 68,900, above the ema20 but capped near 69,050, where the ema50 and the 50% retrace converge. ATR(14) has compressed to about $259 from $384 and RSI(14) sits at a neutral 52.9 late in the NY session.
Support: 68,700.00, 68,008.10
Resistance: 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above 69,050 (ema50 / 50% retrace) opens the 69,480 prior high
Loss of the ema20 and the 68,700 range floor breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 68,008 NY low back in view
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and thin weekend liquidity near the 67,500 August-low zone could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, short-term base forming · RSI 53 · price 68,918.10
Higher lows from the NY low, capped under 69,050.
The Asia session sell-off hit a 67,506 day low. NY's spike to 70,094 on the cooler PPI met rejection and unwound to 68,008, with RSI(14) dipping to 28.7. Late NY is a consolidation of higher lows (68,700) above the 68,838 EMA20, capped by the 50% fib at 69,050 right at the EMA50, with ATR easing to ~$271 from ~$384.
Support: 68,837.58, 68,700.34, 68,008.10
Resistance: 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib / EMA50 near 69,050 opens the london high at 69,480
Loss of the 68,700 higher low and the ema20 returns focus to the 68,008 ny low
Recovery through the 70,094 ppi spike high would void the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read into thin weekend liquidity
Higher lows since 68,008; session high 69,050 at 50% retracement of the PPI fade.
The 13:30 UTC PPI miss spiked BTC to the 70,094 ppi high, but the move faded to a 68,008 ppi low during NY hours as the dollar bid held. Since then late NY has built higher lows at 68,290 and 68,440, with price back above the ema20 (68,824) and pressing the 69,050 swing high, which lines up with the EMA50 and the 50% retracement. RSI(14) sits neutral at 51.7 after reaching 28.7 at the low, and ATR is easing to about $285.
Support: 68,824.00, 68,440.00, 68,008.00
Resistance: 69,050.00, 69,480.00, 70,094.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,050 swing high and EMA50 (50% of the ppi fade fib) opens the 69,480 prior high, then the 61.8% near 69,300 en route
Break of the 68,440 higher low and the rising higher-low line ends the recovery chain and exposes the 68,008 ppi low
Loss of the ema20 at 68,824 would show the retest of 69,050 failing
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, plus thin weekend liquidity near the 67,500 August low, could materially shift this read
Lower high at 70,094 PPI spike, higher low at 68,008; compressing in a 68,440–69,050 range.
The soft PPI spike to the 70,094 ppi high was rejected inside the bar, and the NY selloff found a higher low at 68,008 above the 67,506 day low. Late NY has settled into a 68,440–69,050 range with RSI(14) neutral at 51.5. The last close sits above the EMA20 (68,814) but below the EMA50 (69,064), and the range high lines up with the 50% fib of the PPI drop.
Support: 68,440.00, 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,050.00, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,050 range high and EMA50 opens the London high at 69,480
Break of the 68,440 range low puts the 68,008 NY low back in focus, then the 67,506 day low
ATR compressing to ~$293 from ~$384 suggests the range is coiling ahead of thin weekend liquidity
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 68008 vs 67506 flush low; lower highs from 70094; 68290–69050 range.
The softer PPI spike to the 70094 ppi high was rejected during NY hours, and the sell-off held a higher low at the 68008 ny low above the 67506 flush low. Price is now compressing between the 68440 swing low and the 69050 range top, capped by the ema20 at 68804 and the ema50 at 69070. RSI sits mid-range at 47.7 and ATR is easing to about $299.
Support: 68,439.63, 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,804.03, 69,049.96, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69050 range top and ema50 69070 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 68008 ny low voids the higher-lows read and exposes the 67506 flush low
Hold of the 68440 swing low keeps the late-NY range intact
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~5h) into thin weekend liquidity, with elevated futures OI, could materially shift this read
Post-PPI rejection; higher low at 68,008, range 68,290–69,050.
The soft-PPI spike to the 70,094 ppi high was rejected inside the first NY hour and sold to a 68,008 ny low, still a higher low than the 67,506 Asian flush. Late NY trade is ranging 68,290–69,050 and sitting on the ema20 below a flat-to-falling ema50. The 17:30 range top stalled at the 50% retracement. RSI(14) is neutral at 49 and ATR is about $308 and compressing.
Support: 68,289.79, 68,008.10
Resistance: 69,049.96, 69,082.67, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,050 range top and 69,083 ema50 (50% retracement) opens the 61.8% near 69,300
Loss of the 68,290 range low puts the 68,008 ny low back in play
A break of 68,008 re-exposes the 67,506 Asian low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, into thin weekend liquidity with elevated futures OI, could shift this read
The soft PPI print spiked price to a 70,094 PPI high. That spike was rejected within the bar, and NY sold into a 68,008 NY low as the dollar held its 19-month high. Since London close, price has been consolidating between the 68,290 swing low and the 69,050 swing high, which sits at the 50% retrace of that drop. Price is below the ema20 (68,807) and ema50 (69,093), RSI 47.9 is neutral, and ATR is 32,059 pips (~$320).
Support: 68,289.79, 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,807.33, 69,049.96, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,050 swing high and ema50 at 69,093 breaks the lower-high sequence along the post-PPI trendline
Failure to hold the 68,290 swing low reopens the 68,008 NY low, then the 67,506 24h low
Repeated failure at the ema20 (68,807) keeps the range tilted to its lower half
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~5.7h) could shift this read in thin late-session liquidity
18:03 UTC
Pullback from PPI spike, stabilising mid-range · RSI 50 · price 68,835.19
Lower high at 70094, NY low 68008, then higher lows capped at 69050.
The soft PPI print spiked BTC through the London high to 70094, but the move was rejected and NY sold down to 68008, holding well above the 67506 overnight low. The rebound after London close stalled at the 50% fib near 69050, just under the ema50, and price now sits on the ema20 with RSI neutral at 49.9 and ATR near $333.
Support: 68,439.63, 68,008.10
Resistance: 69,049.96, 69,106.61, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
A close above the 50% fib at 69050 and the ema50 at 69107 reopens the path toward the 70094 ppi high
Loss of the ema20 and the 68440 higher low puts the 68008 ny low back in play
A break of the 68008 ny low exposes the 67506 overnight low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Lower high at PPI spike, higher low vs overnight flush, basing above 68,290.
The soft PPI print spiked BTC through $70K to a 70,094 PPI high, but supply capped it and the move unwound to a 68,008 post-PPI low. That low held above the 67,506 overnight flush. After London close, rising lows from 68,008 lifted price back above the ema20, with RSI(14) recovering from 28.7 to 52.7. The latest bar stalled at the 50% retracement near 69,050, just under the declining ema50 at 69,117; ATR(14) is 34,666 pips (~$347).
Support: 68,289.79, 68,008.10
Resistance: 69,116.71, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 69,117 and the 50% retracement opens the london high at 69,480
Loss of the 68,290 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 68,008 post-PPI low
A break of 68,008 puts the 67,506 overnight low back in play
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read in thin late-session trade
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after a post-PPI flush · RSI 44 · price 68,622.43
Lower high under 70K, tight box 68,290–68,850 below both EMAs.
The softer PPI spike to 70,094 met rejection just under $70K and unwound to a 68,008 NY low. Since then price has compressed after London close between the 68,290 session low and the 68,848 bounce high, which sits near the 38.2% fib, all below the ema20 (68,788) and ema50 (69,122). RSI(14) at 44 is neutral; ATR ~338 USD (33,775 pips) is easing from its post-PPI peak.
Support: 68,289.79, 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,787.98, 68,848.18, 69,122.12
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 68,848 bounce high and ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the ema50 at 69,122 in play
Failure to hold the 68,290 session low exposes the 68,008 NY low, then the 67,506 asia low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6.5h) could shift the read with leverage elevated
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after PPI spike rejection · RSI 45 · price 68,529.53
PPI spike to 70,094 rejected; 68,008 NY low holds above the 67,506 day low; tight 68,290–68,850 band below both EMAs.
The soft PPI print at the NY open spiked BTC to a 70,094 PPI high. Price failed to hold above 70K and unwound to a 68,008 NY low, still a higher low above the 67,506 day low set in the Asia-session long liquidation. Late NY is compressing in a 68,290–68,850 band beneath the ema20 (68,806) and ema50 (69,143), with RSI(14) at 44.6 after a brief oversold dip and ATR(14) at ~34,800 pips (~$348).
Support: 68,289.79, 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,805.72, 69,142.64, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 68,806 and the 68,850 bounce high breaks the late-NY range higher, with the ema50 at 69,143 next
Failure to hold the range low at 68,290 exposes the 68,008 NY low; a break there puts the 67,506 day low back in play
The PPI high at 70,094 caps the session; only a reclaim of 70K negates the rejection read
Fed's Daly now and Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read into thin weekend liquidity
17:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs after the PPI spike · RSI 44 · price 68,558.50
Post-PPI rejection below $70K; chop between the 68,008 NY low and the 68,848 bounce high.
The soft PPI print at 13:30 UTC spiked BTC through the London high to the 70,094 ppi high. The move was rejected below $70K and NY unwound it to the 68,008 ny low, with RSI(14) briefly at 28.7. Price now chops below the ema20 (68,823) and ema50 (69,163) with lower highs in place, while the 67,506 asia low from the overnight liquidation flush still holds.
Support: 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,848.18, 69,163.26, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 68,848 bounce high and the ema20 breaks the lower-highs sequence; ema50 at 69,163 is the next cap
Failure to hold the 68,008 ny low exposes the 67,506 asia low
Fed's Daly speaking now and Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift this read
ATR(14) near $354 per bar after the post-PPI expansion; ranges remain wide
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off NY low · RSI 44 · price 68,551.51
Lower highs since PPI spike rejection; NY low 68,008 holding above Asia low.
The soft-PPI spike at the NY open pushed above the London range but met rejection at the 70,094 ppi high. The move then fully unwound in a run of lower highs down to a 68,008 ny low. Price is now bouncing after London close, below the ema20 (68,846) and ema50 (69,186), with RSI(14) at 43.7 after a sub-30 dip and ATR(14) expanding to 36,971 pips (~$370).
Support: 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,845.76, 69,185.79, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly speaks in ~14 min (17:00 UTC) and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 68,008 ny low exposes the 67,506 asia low (overnight low)
M15 close above the ema20 and the 68,848 bounce high breaks the ppi lower highs sequence; ema50 at 69,186 is next
Reclaim of the 70,094 ppi high would negate the false break read
16:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 44 · price 68,616.43
Lower highs from the PPI spike high, lower low at 68008 in NY session.
The soft PPI print at 13:30 UTC spiked BTC above the London range to a 70,094 PPI high. That move was faded within the bar, and the NY session has since carved lower highs down to a 68,008 NY low. Price is now bouncing below both the ema20 (68,872) and ema50 (69,210), with RSI(14) recovering to 43.5 from a 28.7 trough and ATR(14) expanding to roughly $384.
Support: 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,871.79, 69,209.76, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC (under 30 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the ema20 at 68,872 and the lower-highs trendline breaks the NY sell-off sequence
Failure to hold the 68,008 NY low exposes the 67,506 day low from the Asia session
Ema50 at 69,210 caps the recovery while the PPI spike retrace stays below the 50% level
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-PPI spike; bounce capped below ema20.
The soft PPI at 13:30 UTC spiked BTC to a 70093.81 PPI high, but sellers rejected it and a chain of lower highs carried price to a 68008.10 NY low. The bounce stalled at the 68848.18 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the PPI leg fib and just under the ema20 at 68901.61, with RSI(14) at 41.2 after a 28.7 dip and ATR(14) out to ~$380.
Support: 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,848.18, 69,235.12, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC (44 min) could materially shift this read
Break below the 68008.10 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 67505.66 3m low
M15 close above the 68848.18 bounce high and the ema20 breaks the lower-high trendline; ema50 at 69235.12 is the next cap
Late NY into London close: thinning liquidity can amplify wicks at either level
16:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bounce stalling below both EMAs · RSI 46 · price 68,661.38
Lower highs since the PPI spike; 68,008 NY low holds above the 67,505 Asia low.
The soft PPI print lifted BTC through the London high at 69,479 to 70,094 at the NY open. That false break was rejected and fully unwound into a 68,008 NY low, still above the 67,505 three-month low from the Asia session. The rebound has stalled near the 38.2–50% fib zone, under the ema20 at 68,946 and the ema50 at 69,266, with RSI(14) back to 46 from 28.7 and ATR near $377.
Support: 68,008.10
Resistance: 68,946.14, 69,266.00, 69,479.48
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the ema20 at 68,946 and then the ema50 at 69,266 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 68,008 NY low puts the 67,505 three-month low back in play
A reclaim of the 69,479 London high would negate the PPI false-break rejection
ATR expanding to ~$377 points to wide intraday swings into the NY afternoon
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY reversal · RSI 29 · price 68,233.86
Post-PPI spike rejected, lower highs, London low lost.
The soft-PPI pop to the 70,094 ppi high was rejected inside the NY session. Price then cut through the London low at 68,414 to a 68,008 session low, below both the ema20 (68,961) and ema50. RSI(14) is oversold at 28.7 and ATR has expanded to roughly $349, with the overnight low at 67,506 the next reference beneath.
Support: 68,008.10, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,413.66, 68,961.39, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 68,008 session low exposes the 67,506 overnight low
M15 close back above the 68,414 london low eases the downside read
Recovery through the ema20 near 68,961 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could shift the dollar and this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since PPI · RSI 35 · price 68,360.72
Lower highs off the 70,094 PPI high; London range low at 68,414 giving way.
The soft PPI print lifted BTC to a 70,094 PPI high at 13:30 UTC, but $70K was rejected. Price has since stepped down along a lower-high trendline, through the 61.8% level of the 67,506–70,094 rally fib, and is now testing the 68,414 London low early in the NY session. RSI(14) is sliding at 35.4, price sits under both EMAs, and ATR(14) is 33,438 pips (~$334).
Support: 68,000.00, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,413.66, 69,052.17, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 68,414 London low would mark the break as a false break
Failure at the 68,000 round number exposes the 67,506 Asia low
Reclaim of ema20 at 69,052 and the lower-high trendline ends the lower-high sequence
Lower highs since the PPI spike rejection, testing the session low.
The soft PPI print spiked BTC through the London high to the 70,094 PPI high, but the spike was rejected. Early NY has since printed lower highs back below the ema20 (69,106) and ema50 (69,366), with price probing the 68,585 session low. RSI(14) is at 37 and ATR(14) is expanding to 32,629 pips (~$326); the 61.8% retracement of the Asia low bounce sits at 68,494, just above the 68,414 swing low.
Support: 68,585.47, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,106.03, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
15-min close below the 68,414 swing low and fib 61.8 zone exposes the 67,506 asia low
Hold above the session low and a close back over the PPI downtrend line (~68,840) and ema20 at 69,106 would break the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 69,480 london high reopens the 70,094 ppi high
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could shift the read via dollar and yields
15:02 UTC
Downtrend resuming after failed PPI spike · RSI 43 · price 68,774.26
Lower high at 69,379 after the PPI high rejection; pre-PPI range broken to the downside.
Soft PPI spiked BTC to a 70,094 ppi high at 13:30 UTC, but the push was rejected below $70K. NY hours have since unwound it, breaking below the 69,080–69,480 pre-PPI range and printing a lower high at 69,379. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of the flush-to-PPI fib, below the ema20 (69,156) and ema50 (69,396), with RSI 42.9 easing and ATR expanded to ~$318 per bar.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,156.09, 69,395.75, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 68,414 swing low (near the 61.8% fib) exposes the 67,506 asia low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 69,156 and the 69,379 lower high would negate the post-PPI fade
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Rebounding from the overnight flush, stalling below both EMAs · RSI 46 · price 69,051.95
PPI spike rejected, price back inside London range above the post-PPI low.
Soft US PPI at the NY open spiked BTC through the London pre-PPI high at 69,480 to a PPI high of 70,094. The spike fully faded, and price now sits below the ema20 (69,182) and ema50 (69,415). It is holding the post-PPI low at 68,790, close to the 50% fib of the rally from the 67,506 Asia low to the PPI high. RSI(14) is neutral at 46.2 and ATR is expanding to ~31,200 pips (~$312).
Support: 68,790.24, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,181.78, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 68,790 post-PPI low breaks the 50% fib and exposes the 68,414 London higher low
Loss of the 68,414 higher low reopens the 67,506 Asia low
A reclaim of the ema20 at 69,182 and the 69,480 pre-PPI high would undo the PPI rejection read
Fed Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via the dollar
14:31 UTC
Recovery stalling, post-PPI fade below both EMAs · RSI 47 · price 69,163.83
Higher lows off the Asia low; PPI spike above the London high rejected below 70K and fully retraced.
The softer PPI headline at the NY open briefly lifted BTC through the 69,480 London high to a 70,094 PPI high. Supply capped it just above 70K and the move fully retraced, leaving a false break with price back under the EMA20 (69,196) and the EMA50, sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 67,506–70,094 rebound from the Asia low. The pre-PPI low at 69,016 is the nearest floor; ATR(14) is about 291 USD per bar.
Support: 69,015.99, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,430.37, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 69,016 pre-PPI low exposes the 68,414 London low and the 50% fib near 68,800
Reclaim of the ema50 (69,430) and the 69,480 London high would neutralise the false break read
Loss of the 68,414 London low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 67,506 Asia low back in play
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Recovery off Asia low, capped below $70K · RSI 51 · price 69,217.77
Rising lows since the 08:15 UTC pivot; back inside the 69,081–69,479 range after the PPI spike faded.
The Asia-session liquidation leg bottomed at 67,506, and London built rising lows into a 69,081–69,479 range. The slightly soft PPI print spiked price to a 70,094 ppi high at 13:30 UTC, but supply capped it just above $70K. That false break unwound back into the range, with price holding the ema20 (69,209) under a declining EMA50 (69,445) and RSI flat at 51.
Support: 69,208.66, 69,080.92, 68,413.66
Resistance: 69,479.48, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 69,479 range high and EMA50 reopens a test of the 70,094 ppi high
Loss of the 69,081 range low, just under the 38.2% fib, and a break of the rising lows trendline exposes the 68,414 swing low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is about $297 per bar
Higher-low chain off 67506; PPI spike rejected below $70K.
The Asia-session flush bottomed at 67506 and has since printed higher lows at 68414 and 69016. The soft PPI headline drove a spike through the london high at 69479 to the ppi high at 70094, but it was rejected under $70K and is now fading back into the London range. The 13:45 close held just above ema50 (69453) and ema20 (69204), RSI(14) eased from 65.6 to 57, and ATR(14) re-expanded to about $297 on the release.
Support: 69,204.45, 69,015.99, 68,413.66
Resistance: 69,479.48, 70,093.81
What it said to watch
Close back above the london high at 69479 reopens the ppi high at 70094 and the $70K handle
Loss of the pre-ppi low at 69016 breaks the higher-low trendline; swing low 68414 sits below
Holding ema20 at 69204 keeps the rebound off 67506 above its 38.2% retracement
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 67,506; London range high broken on PPI.
The soft headline PPI print at 13:30 UTC lifted BTC out of the 69,016–69,480 London range to a 70,094 ppi high. Sellers capped the spike just above 70K, leaving a long upper wick. Price is holding above the London high and both EMAs, RSI(14) at 65.6, and ATR has jumped to about $295 per bar.
Support: 69,177.81, 69,015.99
Resistance: 70,093.81
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 69,480 London high turns the PPI move into a false break and puts the ema20 near 69,178 in play
Close above the 70,094 PPI high opens the 70,450 breakdown area from yesterday's slide
Loss of the 69,016 London low breaks the rising-lows trendline from 68,414
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, now compressing · RSI 50 · price 69,376.60
Higher low at 68,414, range 69,016–69,479 since 10:00 UTC.
The Asia session liquidation flush bottomed at 67,506. London then printed a higher low at 68,414 and has held a tight 69,016–69,479 range at the top of the recovery fib, with price between ema20 (69,121) and ema50 (69,442). The still-forming PPI bar swept below the range low to 68,956 on the soft headline print and snapped back to 69,377, with RSI(14) flat at 50.1 and ATR compressing to about $231.
Support: 69,121.24, 69,015.99, 68,413.66
Resistance: 69,442.17, 69,479.48, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,479 range high and ema50 opens the path to the 70,000 psych level
A close back below the 69,016 range low turns the PPI sweep into a range break toward the 68,414 higher low
A break of the rising lows line from 67,506 would undo the recovery structure
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read early in the NY session
Higher low at 68,414 off the Asia low; tightening 69,016–69,479 box into PPI.
A liquidation-led Asia-session flush below $70K swept the lows to the 67,506 asia low. London then built a higher low at 68,414 and a swing high at 69,479. Since late morning price has coiled between lower highs and the 69,016 session low, hugging the ema20 and capped under the ema50 at 69,454, with RSI flat at 49.4 and ATR compressing to about $236 ahead of PPI.
Support: 69,015.99, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,454.31, 69,479.48, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, about 13 minutes out, is the trigger for this compression; a hot core print fits the dollar-led selloff
M15 close below the 69,016 session low breaks the rising higher-low line and exposes 68,414, the 50–61.8% zone of the recovery fib
M15 close above the 69,454 ema50 and 69,479 swing high clears the lower-highs cap and puts the 70,000 psych breakdown level in play
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC can extend any post-PPI move
13:03 UTC
Post-liquidation bounce stalling, flat into PPI · RSI 49 · price 69,068.94
69,080–69,480 range capped at 50% retrace of the decline, above a 68,414 higher low.
The Asia-session long flush bottomed at the 67,506 asia low. London's bounce printed a 68,414 higher low but met rejection at the 69,479 range high, which coincides with the 50% retrace of the 71,457 decline and a falling ema50 (69,468). Price is now compressed in a 69,080–69,480 range, holding just above ema20 (69,118), with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR(14) down to about $241 from $366.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,479.48, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (27 min); core forecast 0.3% MoM / 5% YoY. A hot or soft print could break the compressed range in either direction.
An M15 close below the 69,080 range low exposes the 68,414 higher low.
Failure to hold the 68,414 higher low brings the 67,506 asia low back into view.
A close above the 69,480 range high and ema50 opens the path to the 70,000 round number.
12:47 UTC
Rebounding from Asia low, stalled under ema50 · RSI 52 · price 69,239.75
Higher lows since 05:45 UTC low; tight range 69,081–69,479 into PPI.
The Asia-session liquidation flush bottomed at 67,506, followed by a higher low at 68,414 and a London push to 69,479, where the ema50 (69,482) capped the move. Price now coils between that London high and the 69,081 swing low, just above the ema20 with RSI(14) at 52 and ATR(14) compressed to about $248 from $377, as BTC holds near lows under a firm dollar into US PPI.
Support: 69,080.92, 68,413.66
Resistance: 69,479.48, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (43 min) could materially shift this read; a hot core print adds to dollar strength
M15 close above the 69,480 london high and ema50 opens the path to the 70,000 round number
Break below the 69,081 swing low and ema20 exposes the 68,414 higher low near the 50% fib
Loss of the 67,506 Asia low would end the higher-low sequence
12:32 UTC
Rebound after Asia sell-off, now flat · RSI 52 · price 69,284.70
Higher lows from 67,505, capped below 69,480.
Long liquidations and the hawkish-Fed dollar bid drove BTC through 70K during Asia to a 67,505 low. London has rebuilt higher lows at 68,413 and 69,081 but stalled under the 69,479 session high, just below the EMA50 at 69,493. Price holds the EMA20 at 69,108, RSI(14) is neutral at 51.5 and ATR(14) has compressed to about $252 ahead of PPI.
Support: 69,108.31, 69,080.92
Resistance: 69,479.48, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (58 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 69,479 session high and EMA50 opens a test of the 70,000 round number
Loss of the EMA20 and the 69,081 swing low breaks the higher-low chain toward 68,413
Failure to hold the 68,413 higher low returns focus to the 67,505 Asia low
Higher lows since the Asia low, capped below the session high and EMA50.
BTC flushed to the 67,506 Asia low on the long-liquidation and firm-dollar slide, then London built higher lows from 68,414 along a rising trendline. Price is compressing above EMA20 (69,100) but below the 69,480 session high, where an earlier wick was rejected, and EMA50 at 69,506. ATR is easing from $393 to $249 ahead of PPI.
Support: 69,080.92, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,505.56, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read; core YoY f/c 5%
M15 close above the 69,480 session high and EMA50 at 69,506 exposes the 70,000 round number
Loss of the 69,081 swing low and the rising trendline reopens the 68,414 London low
Break of the 67,506 Asia low resumes the lower-low sequence
12:03 UTC
Intraday recovery off the Asia low, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 69,332.65
Higher highs and higher lows since 05:45 UTC, now compressing in a 69,081–69,479 band.
The Asia session slide to the 67,506 asia low came on the hawkish-Fed dollar bid and long liquidations. London has since built a higher-low chain back above the ema20. Price is now compressing between the 69,081 swing low and the 69,479 london high, just under the ema50 at 69,511, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.8 and ATR contracting to about $257.
Support: 69,080.92, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,479.48, 69,511.19, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read; ATR compression points to an outsized first move
M15 close above the 69,479 london high and the ema50 at 69,511 extends the higher-high chain and opens the 70,000 round number
Break of the 69,081 swing low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 68,414 higher low near the 50% fib of the asia low–london high move
Failure to hold 68,414 puts the 67,506 asia low back in play
11:46 UTC
Rebound from Asia low, capped below ema50 · RSI 54 · price 69,280.70
Higher lows since 67,505; session high rejected.
The Asia-session liquidation flush through 70,000 bottomed at 67,505, and London has since built a recovery of higher lows. The session high at 69,479 was rejected just under the ema50 at 69,523, while price holds above the ema20 at 69,055 with RSI 54.1 and ATR compressing to 26,180 pips (~$262) ahead of US PPI.
Support: 69,080.92, 69,054.93, 68,413.66
Resistance: 69,479.48, 69,522.59, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,479 session high and the ema50 at 69,523 opens the 70,000 psych level
Break of the 69,081 swing low and the ema20 puts the 68,414 higher low in focus; losing it unwinds the recovery
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in ~1h45m) could materially shift this read; core YoY f/c 5%
11:31 UTC
Rebound off Asia low, stalling under ema50 · RSI 52 · price 69,129.87
Higher lows since 67,506 low; capped at 69,479 session high.
The rebound from the Asia low at 67,506 has carved higher lows through London, with the 68,414 higher low intact and price holding above the ema20 at 69,035. The latest push to a session high at 69,479 was rejected just under the ema50 at 69,534, leaving BTC consolidating near 69,130 ahead of US PPI as the wider liquidation-driven selloff is digested.
Support: 69,035.47, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,479.48, 69,534.14, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, about 2h out, could materially shift this read; ATR near 269 USD and contracting into the release
M15 close above the 69,479 session high and the ema50 at 69,534 extends the higher-high sequence toward the 70,000 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 69,035 puts the 68,414 higher low back in play; a break there negates the rebound structure and exposes the asia low at 67,506
11:16 UTC
Rebounding from Asia flush, below ema50 · RSI 53 · price 69,254.73
Higher lows since 67,506 low; tight range under session high.
The Asia-session liquidation flush to 67,506 has been retraced through London, with a higher low at 68,414 and a new session high at 69,379. Price now sits in a tight 69,149–69,379 range, above the ema20 and below the ema50 at 69,549. RSI(14) is neutral at 53.4 and ATR has compressed to about $267 ahead of US PPI.
Support: 69,148.85, 69,020.28, 68,413.66
Resistance: 69,378.59, 69,548.60, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,379 session high and the ema50 at 69,549 opens the 70,000 psych level
Loss of the 69,149 range low and the ema20 at 69,020 exposes the 68,414 higher low
A break below the 68,414 higher low voids the higher-low line and the rebound read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; a hot print adds pressure via the dollar
11:02 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, momentum neutral · RSI 54 · price 69,278.70
Higher low at 68,414 then higher high at 69,379; tight consolidation under the session high.
After the overnight liquidation flush to the 67,506 Asia low, BTC held a higher low at 68,414 near London open and is now compressing just under the 69,379 session high, with the fib of the rebound respected and the rising line from the lows intact. Price is above the ema20 (69,000) but capped below the ema50 (69,562). RSI(14) is neutral at 54.4 and ATR has contracted to roughly $277 per bar.
Support: 68,999.91, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,378.59, 69,562.27, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,379 session high puts the ema50 at 69,562 and the 70,000 round number in play
Loss of the ema20 at 69,000 and a break of the rising line from the lows exposes the 68,414 higher low, the 50–61.8% fib zone of the rebound
A break below the 68,414 higher low reopens the 67,506 Asia low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC: core YoY forecast 5%. A hot print could materially shift this read, given the strong-dollar backdrop
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, intraday recovery off Asia low · RSI 54 · price 69,255.73
Higher low and higher high off 67,506, below ema50.
BTC is recovering through the London session after the long-liquidation flush to a 67,506 asian low (RSI 16 at the trough). It has printed a higher low at 68,414 and a fresh session high at 69,379. Price holds above the ema20 but sits below the declining ema50 at 69,575, the lower edge of the $69K–70K breakdown zone where supply capped the bounce, while ATR has compressed from about $416 to $288.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,378.59, 69,575.15, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.7h) could materially shift this read; core YoY f/c 5%
M15 close above the ema50 at 69,575 opens the 70,000 round number
Rejection at the 69,379 session high keeps the recovery a retest of broken support
Failure to hold the 68,414 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 67,506 asian low
An Asia session cascade through 70,000, driven by dollar strength and long liquidations, bottomed at the 67,505.66 swing low. London has rebounded with a higher low at 68,413.66 and a new session high at 69,378.59, and RSI(14) has recovered from 16.3 to 52.9. Price sits above ema20 at 68,948.36 but below ema50 at 69,589.78, retesting the underside of the 69K–70K breakdown zone.
Support: 68,948.36, 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,378.59, 69,589.78, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,378.59 session high and ema50 at 69,589.78 opens the 70,000 round number
Loss of ema20 at 68,948.36 followed by a break of the 68,413.66 higher low undoes the rebound and exposes the 67,505.66 swing low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
ATR compression from ~42.9K to 30.2K pips suggests the post-cascade swings are narrowing into the data
Higher low and higher high off the Asia low, capped below ema50.
The Asia session cascade bottomed at the 67,505.66 swing low as RSI(14) hit 16.3, extending the 24h slide from 73,500 on strong-USD pressure. London has since built a higher low at 68,413.66 and a new session high at 69,375.60, with price back above the ema20 but still below the ema50 at 69,606.51 and RSI recovering to 56.6 as ATR compresses to about $307.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,375.60, 69,606.51, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 69,606.51 opens the 70,000 round number, the lower edge of the earlier breakdown area
Loss of the higher low at 68,413.66 breaks the recovery sequence and puts the 67,505.66 swing low back in view
Failure to clear the 69,375.60 session high leaves a lower-high risk under the ema50
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with Bowman and Daly after it, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 71,429; higher low at 68,414 since the 67,506 swing low.
The Asia session extended the sell-off from 71,429 to a 67,506 swing low as DXY held above 103. London has since printed a higher low at 68,414, and price is back above the ema20 and retesting the 69,000 break area, just under the 69,282 london high and near the 38.2% of the Asia drop fib. RSI(14) has recovered from 16 to 49 while ATR compresses to about 30,076 pips.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,281.70, 69,617.93, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,282 london high puts the ema50 at 69,618 and the 70,000 round number in play
Loss of the ema20 and the rising lows trendline reopens the 68,414 higher low
A break below 68,414, then the 67,506 swing low, resumes the downtrend sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off the 67,505 low · RSI 47 · price 68,921.10
Higher low at 68,414 inside a 68,410–69,280 band, below ema50.
The Asia-session slide took BTC below $69K to a 67,505 session low, with the dollar near 19-month highs and long liquidations driving the drop. RSI(14) has since recovered from 16 to 47. London printed a higher low at 68,414, and price sits just above the ema20 at 68,870, capped below the 69,282 bounce high and the falling ema50 at 69,643.
Support: 68,869.58, 68,413.66
Resistance: 69,281.70, 69,643.32, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read before NY open
An M15 close above the 69,282 bounce high puts the ema50 at 69,643 and the 70,000 round number in play
Failure to hold the 68,414 higher low reopens the 67,505 session low
ATR compressing from ~429 to ~311 USD: the band is narrowing ahead of the data
Asian-session sell-off to day low, London higher low, compressing below the bounce high.
An Asian-session liquidation leg took BTC through 69K to a 67,506 day low, with RSI(14) bottoming near 16 as DXY held above 103 and ETF outflows persisted. London printed a higher low at 68,414, close to the 50% retrace of the bounce, and price is now testing the ema20 at 68,864 from below, under the ema50 at 69,673. ATR(14) has eased to about 32,018 pips.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,863.63, 69,281.70, 69,672.59
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, in about 4h, could materially shift this read; a hot core print risks another liquidation leg
M15 close above the 69,282 bounce high, then the ema50 at 69,673, would turn the bounce into a recovery structure
A break of the 68,414 higher low and the rising lows line reopens the 67,506 day low
Price holding below the ema20 at 68,864 keeps the post-sell-off consolidation capped
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing above the Asia low · RSI 41 · price 68,775.26
Post-flush range: 69,282 bounce high vs 68,414 higher low, capped by ema20.
The Asia session extended the liquidation-led slide through $70K to a 67,505 asia low. An early-Europe bounce stalled at the 69,282 bounce high, and the pullback held a 68,414 higher low near the 50% level of the bounce fib. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 40.9, recovered from sub-20 readings, and the ema20 at 68,866 is the immediate lid.
Support: 68,413.66
Resistance: 68,865.67, 69,281.70, 69,706.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 68,866 ema20 and then the 69,282 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence and put the ema50 at 69,706 in view
Failure to hold the 68,414 higher low and the higher low line from the 67,505 asia low reopens that low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; the digest flags greater sensitivity to a hot core print
ATR(14) easing to ~$332 from ~$429 shows the range compressing into PPI
Lower highs after Asian flush low; early London holding a 68,414–68,800 band.
The Asian session extended the slide through $70K to a 67,506 asian low, driven by ETF outflows, the stablecoin drain and a firm dollar. The bounce to the 69,282 rebound high has given back about half on the rebound fib, and early London is holding a 68,414 london low below the ema20 at 68,884. RSI(14) has recovered to 38 from sub-20 readings, and ATR(14) has eased to about $336 from $429.
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,884.13, 69,281.70, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 68,884 ema20 and the lower-highs line from 69,282 would ease the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 68,414 london low, near the 50% rebound fib, exposes the 67,506 asian low
A reclaim of the 69,282 rebound high puts the 70,000 round number back in view, with the ema50 at 69,748 just below it
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Downtrend, early London bounce fading · RSI 39 · price 68,640.41
Lower highs below both EMAs; higher low forming off 67,505.
Asia session extended the slide from 71,000 to a 67,505.66 swing low on stablecoin and ETF outflows and a firm dollar. RSI(14) bottomed near 15 with a mild bullish divergence into that low. The early London bounce stalled at the 69,281.70 bounce high and has since pulled back to the 50% level of the bounce fib, with the 68,413.66 London low holding as a higher low and price below the ema20 (68,939) and ema50 (69,840).
Support: 68,413.66, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,938.91, 69,281.70, 69,840.32
What it said to watch
Loss of the 68,413.66 London low breaks the higher low line and reopens the 67,505.66 swing low
An M15 close above the ema20 at 68,939 and the 69,281.70 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the ema50 near 69,840 next
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
ATR(14) ~358 USD per bar, compressing from its 05:45 UTC peak
Lower high at 69,282 after 67,506 session low; price back below ema20.
The Asia session carried the stablecoin- and ETF-outflow rout from 71,400 to a 67,506 session low. The bounce met rejection at the 69,282 bounce high into London open, and price is back below the ema20 (68,971) and testing the 68,470 pullback low. RSI(14) at 39 has recovered from sub-20 readings; ATR is 36,647 pips (~$366).
Support: 68,000.00, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,971.27, 69,281.70, 69,889.66
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 68,470 pullback low exposes the 68,000 round number and the 67,506 session low
An M15 close above the ema20 at 68,971 and the 69,282 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence, with the ema50 at 69,890 next
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 15:50 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce rejected below 50% retrace.
The Asia session extended the long-liquidation selloff from 71,457 to a 67,505 session low, with RSI(14) bottoming near 15 amid a firm USD. The rebound stalled at the 69,281 bounce high, just above the ema20 and short of the 50% fib, and price has slipped back to 68,480 into London open with RSI(14) at 34.4 and ATR(14) near $377.
Resistance: 70,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,281 bounce high and the ema20 would break the lower-high sequence and the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 68,240 swing low exposes a retest of the 67,505 session low
A reclaim of the 70,000 round number, near the ema50 at 69,940, would neutralise the downtrend read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Bowman following at 15:50 UTC
An Asia-session cascade broke 70,000 and 69,000 down to a 67,505.66 session low, in line with the long-liquidation flush in the digest, and RSI(14) has recovered from 14.9 to 37.8. The bounce was rejected at 69,281.70, near the 50% fib of the Asia drop. Price sits back below the ema20 at 69,058.97 and the ema50 at 69,999.35 into the London open, with ATR(14) near $385.
Support: 68,240.85, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,058.97, 69,281.70, 69,999.35
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 68,240.85 swing low exposes the 67,505.66 session low
M15 close above the ema20 and the 69,281.70 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence; the ema50 near 70,000 sits above that
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~5.7h) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Bowman following at 15:50 UTC
Lower highs from 73.6k; Asian flush low, bounce capped below 69.3k.
The Asian drop extended the downtrend in a long-liquidation flush to the 67505.66 session low, and the bounce retraced about 45% of the move before rejection at the 69281.70 bounce high. Price sits back below the ema20 at 69094.93 into the London open. RSI(14) has recovered to 40.5 from sub-15 readings, and ATR of about 39,300 pips ($393) keeps bar ranges wide.
Support: 68,240.85, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,094.93, 69,281.70
What it said to watch
A close back above the ema20 and the 69281.70 bounce high reopens the 70000 / ema50 area
Loss of the 68240.85 prior shelf exposes the 67505.66 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 73,600; Asia flush low 67,505, early-London rebound capped below the 50% fib.
An Asia-session long-liquidation flush, with DXY at a 19-month high, swept below 68,240 to the 67,505 Asian low. Price then rebounded to a 69,282 bounce high, just under the 50% fib of the last leg. Early London is stalling under the EMA20 at 69,117 and holding the 69,000 psych level, with RSI(14) recovered from the mid-teens to 43.2 and both EMAs still overhead. ATR(14) is about $405 per bar.
Support: 69,000.00
Resistance: 69,116.81, 69,281.70, 70,099.21
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,282 bounce high and ema20 opens the path toward the ema50 at 70,099
Failure to hold the 69,000 psych level exposes the prior base at 68,508
A break of the 67,505 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h), then Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, sweep low then higher lows into London open.
The Asia session extended the long-liquidation flush from 71,152 to a 67,506 asia low, sweeping the 68,241 prior low while RSI(14) set a bullish divergence off a 14.9 extreme. Higher lows have formed into London open, but the last close at 68,983 sits below ema20 69,124 and ema50 70,142. The forming bar is probing ema20 and the 50% retrace of the Asia drop near 69,330, with ATR around $412 per bar.
Support: 68,679.36, 67,817.31, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,123.74, 69,741.20, 70,142.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 69,741 breakdown level and the 61.8% retrace opens the path to ema50 at 70,142
Failure to hold the 68,679 micro low returns focus to the 67,817 higher low and the 67,506 asia low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (about 6.5h away) could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off session low · RSI 38 · price 68,778.26
Lower highs and lows through Asia; rejection bounce from 67505.66.
The Asia session extended yesterday's slide through the $70K psych level and $69K. It printed a session low at 67505.66 before a rejection bounce back to about 68800, roughly a third of the Asian leg retraced. RSI(14) has recovered from sub-20 to 38, with a mild bullish divergence at the low, but price is still below the ema20 (69138.55) and ema50 (70189.30). ATR is elevated near $415 per bar as rising yields and a 19-month-high DXY keep pressure on.
Support: 68,240.85, 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,138.55, 70,189.30
What it said to watch
A close above the ema20 at 69138.55 would break the lower-high sequence from the Asian leg
Failure to hold the 68240.85 swing low reopens the 67505.66 session low
Ema50 at 70189.30 and the $70K psych level cap any extended bounce
London open next could set the first test of the bounce
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print adds yield and dollar pressure
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound off lows · RSI 34 · price 68,746.29
Lower highs and lows through Asia, sharp bounce off 67,506 session low.
Asia session extended the break below the 70,000 psych level to a 67,506 session low, where a rejection wick sparked a rebound to 68,750. RSI(14) has lifted to 34 from sub-20 readings on a marginal bullish divergence, but price stays below both the ema20 (69,172) and ema50 (70,245), with ETF outflows and a firm dollar keeping the tape heavy.
Support: 67,505.66
Resistance: 69,075.93, 69,172.16, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 69,076 lower high and the ema20 at 69,172 would break the Asia lower-high chain; 38.2% fib of the decline sits near 68,900 just below
Loss of the 68,240 swing low would reopen the 67,506 session low
London open is the first test of the rebound; 70,000 psych marks the breakdown level
ATR(14) near $429 per bar reflects expanded intraday ranges
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; first bounce off a sweep low.
Asia session extended the liquidation leg as a firm dollar and 10Y yields above 5% weighed. Price broke $70K and then $69K, then swept to 67,505.66 before bouncing back above the 68,000 round number. RSI(14) at 22.7 is oversold and printed a marginally higher low on that sweep, a mild divergence. ATR is about $420 per bar, and price sits below both EMAs, with the ema20 at 69,226.56 capping overhead.
Support: 68,000.00, 67,505.66
Resistance: 68,550.00, 68,898.12, 69,226.56
What it said to watch
Reclaiming the 68,550 prior shelf would mark the first lower-high break since the Asia slide
The 69k break area near 68,898 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg; rejection there keeps the downtrend intact
A close back below the 68,000 round number and then the 67,505.66 sweep low resumes the lower-low sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, about 7h out, could materially shift this read
ATR near $420 per bar means intraday swings stay wide into London open
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; NY range broken.
The Asia session extended Thursday's selloff. Price broke the 71,000–72,000 NY range, then $70K and $69K, before printing a session low at 67,505.66, as liquidations met a firm dollar and a 10Y above 5%. RSI(14) at 16.3 is deeply oversold with ATR near $416, while lower highs at 69,075.93 and 68,808.22 keep price capped below the ema20 at 69,330.64.
Support: 67,505.66, 67,000.00
Resistance: 68,240.85, 68,808.22, 69,330.64
What it said to watch
A close below the 67,505.66 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 67,000 psych level.
A recovery above the 68,240.85 broken low and the 68,808.22 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read.
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and basing · RSI 20 · price 68,611.44
Lower highs and lower lows; tight base above the session low.
Asia session extended Thursday's liquidation leg through $70K and $69K to a session low at 68240.85, driven by a firm dollar and 10Y yields above 5%. RSI(14) sits at 20.2, near oversold after mid-teens readings, and ATR has expanded to roughly $363 per bar. Price trades below a falling ema20 at 69466.59 in a tight base capped by the lower high at 68808 and the swing high at 69076.
Support: 68,240.85, 68,000.00
Resistance: 68,808.22, 69,075.93, 69,466.59
What it said to watch
Break of the 68240.85 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 68000 round number
M15 close above the 68808 lower high breaks the lower-highs line, and the 69076 swing high is next
Recovery into the ema20 near 69466 would test the 38.2% retracement of the Asia selloff leg
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (about 7.7h away) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asian session, first bounce off 68,240.
The Asian session sell-off ran BTC from 71,429 through 70K and 69K to a 68,240 session low, driven by liquidations, a 19-month-high dollar and 10Y yields above 5%. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) oversold at 20.3. RSI printed a slightly higher reading on the latest low, a mild bullish divergence. ATR has widened to about $373 (37,333 pips), and the 68,808 bounce high is the first lower high in the way.
Support: 68,000.00
Resistance: 68,808.22, 69,075.93
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 68,808 bounce high and then the 69,076 swing high would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 68,240 session low extends the downtrend toward the 68,000 round number
Price is capped below the ema20 at 69,564, close to the 38.2% retracement of the Asian sell-off near 69,459
London open in about 1.5h may expand the session range given elevated ATR
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in about 8h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, bounce off session low.
Asia session extended Thursday's NY sell-off through the 70,000 round number and 69K, driven by the liquidation slide, a 19-month-high dollar, 10Y yields above 5% and the Nvidia shock. The latest bar wicked to a new session low at 68,240 below the 68,486 swing low and closed back above it. RSI(14) at 21.4 is oversold and above its 14.9 trough, a bullish RSI divergence. Price still sits below both EMAs under a lower-highs trendline, with ATR near $382 per bar.
Resistance: 69,075.93, 69,671.34, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,076 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline. The ema20 at 69,671, near the 50% fib of the Asia sell-off, sits above it.
Failure to hold the 68,240 session low confirms another lower low and voids the divergence.
Reclaim of the 70,000 round number would mark the Asia breakdown as failed.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman at 15:50 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia after the NY range break.
The Asia session broke the 71,050–71,980 NY range and cut through the $70K and $69K round numbers in a liquidation-driven slide, set against a 19-month-high dollar and 10Y yields above 5%. A lower high at 69,076 led to a fresh session low at 68,241, with RSI(14) at 16 and ATR(14) expanded to about 37,770 pips ($378). Price sits below a falling ema20 at 69,777.
Support: 68,240.85, 68,000.00
Resistance: 69,075.93, 69,777.23, 70,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 69,076 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence.
Failure to hold the 68,241 session low brings the 68,000 round number into play.
A higher RSI low on a fresh price low would flag bullish divergence after the oversold extreme.
The 70,000 round number lines up with the 61.8% of the Asia selloff fib, a level to monitor for rejection on any bounce.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 UTC after it.
Lower highs and lower lows; overnight range broken, Asia leg extended below 70k.
The Asia session broke the 71,000–71,600 overnight range and cut through psych 70k as futures liquidations accelerated on tech risk-off and 5% yields, printing a session low at 68,486.58. RSI(14) at 16.3 is deeply oversold and ATR has expanded to 38,931.6 pips (~$389). Price sits below a falling ema20 (69,910.78) with the 69,076 bounce high capping the latest pullback.
Support: 68,486.58, 68,000.00
Resistance: 69,075.93, 69,910.78
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 68,486.58 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 68,000 round number
Recovery through the 69,076 bounce high would print the first higher high of the Asia leg; the fib 50% sits near the ema20 at 69,911
Psych 70k is now overhead; a reclaim would neutralise the breakdown read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print risks a fresh liquidation wave
Lower highs and lower lows; late-NY range and 70,000 broken in Asia.
The Asia session broke the late-NY 71,000–72,000 range and then the 70,000 round number, printing a session low at 68,486.58. The digest ties the drop to liquidation flow on tech risk-off and 10-year yields above 5%. RSI(14) at 18.4 is deeply oversold and ATR(14) has expanded to about $377, with the last two bars pausing above the session low and below the 69,395.58 lower high.
Support: 68,486.58, 68,000.00
Resistance: 69,395.58, 70,000.00, 70,052.91
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 69,395.58 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.382 of the Asia selloff fib sits near 69,620
Failure to hold the 68,486.58 session low extends the decline toward the 68,000 round number
Reclaim of the 70,000 round number and ema20 at 70,052.91 needed to shift the downtrend read; the fib 0.5 sits at about 69,970
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, and thin weekend liquidity afterward can amplify moves
Lower highs and lower lows, impulsive leg below 70K.
BTC broke the overnight 71,000–71,500 range and then the 70K psych level during the Asia session. Liquidation-driven risk-off on Nvidia, Strategy's MSCI exit and 10y yields above 5% pushed it to a 68,486 session low. RSI(14) at 14.9 is deeply oversold, ATR has expanded to ~38,200 pips (~$382) and price sits well below a falling ema20 (70,179), with the falling trendline from 71,980 capping each bounce.
Support: 68,000.00
Resistance: 70,178.89
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 68,486 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 68,000 round number
A reclaim of the 69,395 bounce high, near the 23.6% fib of the selloff, would be the first higher high since the slide began
Close back above psych 70k and the ema20 (70,179) undoes the breakdown read; falling trendline near 70,800 sits above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print is the stated extension risk
Lower highs and lower lows; Asia broke below the NY range and $70K.
Asia session broke below the 71,000–71,950 NY range and the $70K psych level in a liquidation-driven slide, printing a session low at 68,487 with the 69,400 lower high capping the last bounce. RSI(14) at 15.6 is deeply oversold and ATR has expanded to roughly $385. Price sits well below both EMAs, and the ema20 at 70,329 lines up with the 61.8% fib of the Asia drop.
Support: 68,486.58, 68,000.00
Resistance: 70,329.06
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 68,487 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 68,000 round number
An M15 close above the 69,400 lower high breaks the micro sequence; $70K psych and the ema20 at 70,329 (61.8% fib) sit above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; thin weekend liquidity after it can amplify moves
The Asia session broke the 71,045 range low that had held since the NY-hours sell-off, then lost the $70K psych level. The Asia leg ran to a 68,898 session low as the tech risk-off and a 10Y yield above 5% weighed. RSI(14) is deeply oversold at 16.6, ATR has expanded to ~$366 and price sits well below a falling ema20 (70,482) and ema50 (71,184).
Support: 68,898.12
Resistance: 70,000.00, 70,482.20
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 70,000 psych would mark the $70K break as a false break
Failure to hold the 68,898 session low extends the lower-low chain
Rebounds stalling at the ema20 near 70,482 keep the lower-highs structure intact
Reclaiming the 71,045 range low invalidates the breakdown read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Asia flush · RSI 19 · price 69,351.62
Lower highs and lower lows; $70K psych broken in Asia.
The Asia session extended the NY-hours slide. Price lost the 70,600 overnight low and the $70K psych level to print a session low at 68,898, as tech/AI risk-off and 10Y yields above 5% weigh on crypto. RSI(14) at 18.5 is deeply oversold and ATR(14) has expanded to ~$360, with price below the ema20 at 70,635 and a lower-highs trendline intact from 71,980 through the 71,152 lower high.
Support: 68,898.12
Resistance: 70,000.00, 70,634.86, 71,151.64
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 70,000 psych level, which sits near the 50% fib of the Asian sell-off, would ease the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 68,898 session low extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the ema20 at 70,635 and the 71,152 lower high would break the lower-highs structure
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
The Asia session extended the NY sell-off. Price broke the $70K psych and printed a session low at 69,491, with lower highs on nearly every bar since 70,882. RSI(14) is oversold at 22, ATR(14) has expanded to 32,340 pips (~$323), and price sits below the ema20 at 70,775 and the ema50 at 71,352. The driver is risk-off from 10Y yields above 5% and the Nvidia/MSTR headlines.
Support: 69,491.47
Resistance: 70,000.00, 70,775.09
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 70,000 psych would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 70,302 lower high ends the Asia lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 69,491 session low extends the downtrend
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 27 · price 70,244.64
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday London; Asia wick under $70K reclaimed.
Lower highs held from the NY session into Friday Asia. The Asia session extended to a 69,824 swing low, briefly sweeping the $70K psych level before the latest bar traded back above it. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.3, ATR(14) has expanded to 30,233 pips (~$302), and price sits below both the ema20 and ema50 amid Nvidia/MSCI risk-off and 10Y yields above 5%.
Support: 69,824.10
Resistance: 70,488.00, 70,886.23, 71,151.64
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the $70K psych level after the sweep to the 69,824 swing low extends the lower-low chain
A bounce stalling at the 50% fib of the last leg (70,488) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
An M15 close above the ema20 at 70,886 and the lower-highs trendline near 71,130 would break the descending structure; the 71,152 lower high is the next pivot
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh Asia session low.
Asia session extended the lower-high, lower-low chain. Price broke under the 70,601 prior low and set a session low at 70,079, just above the $70K psych level, as tech risk-off and a 10Y yield above 5% weigh. RSI(14) is oversold at 24.8 and ATR has expanded to about $289. The current bounce sits below the ema20 at 70,962 and the 71,152 lower high.
Support: 70,078.82, 70,000.00
Resistance: 70,601.25, 70,961.76, 71,151.64
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 70,000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 70,601 prior low, near the 50% of the lower-high fib, would mark the first structural bounce
Close above the 71,152 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 29 · price 70,341.53
Lower highs and lower lows since the 71,980 rejection.
BTC's drop from 71,980 has held a lower-high chain into the Asia session, with the 71,000 level and the 70,601 prior low both giving way and a fresh session low at 70,290 as tech risk-off and 10Y yields above 5% weigh. RSI(14) at 29.4 is oversold and ATR is expanding to about $283 per bar, with price below both the EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 70,000.00
Resistance: 70,601.25, 71,052.28
What it said to watch
Break of the 70,290 session low exposes the 70,000 psych level
Recovery above the 70,601 prior low and the ema20 at 71,052 would ease the downside read
M15 close above the 71,151 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asia broke the prior 71,050–71,550 range.
The Asia session extended the drop from the 72,125 NY-session bounce high. Price broke below the overnight 71,050 low and printed a 70,428 session low, with the lower-high chain intact at 71,152. Price sits below the ema20 (71,118) and ema50 (71,570), RSI(14) is 30.8, just above oversold, and ATR has expanded to about $277. The risk-off tone from tech weakness and 10Y yields above 5% keeps the $70K psych level in focus.
Support: 70,428.44
Resistance: 71,117.64, 71,151.64, 71,570.45
What it said to watch
A break below the 70,428 session low exposes the $70K psych level
M15 close back above the 71,152 lower high and the ema20 breaks the lower-high chain
RSI(14) below 30 would put price in oversold territory
Reclaiming the ema50 at 71,570 would undo the range break
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain; Asia bounce capped under ema20.
Lower highs from the 72,126 NY rebound peak are intact. Early in the Asia session, after Williams' hawkish remarks, BTC printed a 70,601 swing low, and the bounce high at 71,152 stalled just under the ema20 (71,180), which lines up with the 38.2% drop fib. RSI(14) is 37.3, ATR(14) is about $263 (26,288 pips), and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 70,601.25, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,151.64, 71,180.40, 71,980.73
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 70,601 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the $70,000 psych level
M15 close above the 71,152 bounce high and the ema20 breaks the latest rejection; the lower-highs line from the 71,981 lower high sits near 71,230
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 71980; bounce capped below ema20.
The lower-high chain from the 71980 NY-afternoon high carried BTC to a 70601 session low early in the Asia session. The slide came as risk stayed heavy on 10Y yields above 5% and Williams' hawkish remarks. The rebound stalled at the 71152 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the drop from 71980, with price below ema20 (71214) and ema50, RSI(14) at 37.8 and ATR at about $272.
Support: 70,677.16, 70,601.25, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,151.64, 71,213.92, 71,429.34
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 70677 higher low and the 70601 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 70000 psych level
An M15 close above the 71152 bounce high and ema20 at 71214 challenges the lower-high chain, with the asian high at 71429 above
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce off lows · RSI 41 · price 71,058.74
Lower highs since the 71,980 swing; session low sweep reclaimed.
BTC keeps printing lower highs below a falling ema20 and ema50. After Williams' hawkish remarks, the early Asia session swept to a 70,601 session low before reclaiming 71,000, with the Nvidia/yields risk-off still the backdrop. RSI(14) has lifted from 30.8 to 41.4 and ATR is expanding to roughly $267, while the bounce sits under ema20 and the 71,430 lower high.
Support: 70,601.25, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,248.34, 71,674.83
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 71,430 lower high and trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Bounce stalling at ema20 (71,248), near the 50% fib of the 71,980–70,601 leg, keeps the downtrend read intact
Loss of the 70,601 session low exposes the 70,000 psych level
Reclaim of ema50 at 71,675 would neutralise the intraday down-leg
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Late-NY range broken lower into Asia; lower-high chain since the 72,125 bounce high.
Thursday's slide on the tech/AI risk-off and 10Y above 5% left a falling lower-high line from 71,980. The late-NY 71,045–71,650 range broke lower early in the Asia session to a 70,601 swing low, and the rebound stalled at the 71,095 bounce high. Price sits below the ema20 at 71,269 and the EMA50, with RSI(14) at 33.3 (not oversold) and ATR(14) near $258 per bar.
Support: 70,601.25, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,094.70, 71,269.46, 71,457.31
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 71,095 bounce high and ema20 at 71,269 would ease the downtrend read; the 71,457 lower high and the lower-high line cap above that
Failure to hold the 70,601 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward 70,000 psych
A rebound that stalls at the 38.2–50% fib of the drop from the 72,125 bounce high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 71,980 NY swing high; Asia broke the 71,045 floor to a 70,601 session low.
Lower highs off the 71,980 prior high capped late NY. Early Asia broke the 71,045 floor and ran to a 70,601 session low. The rebound is stalling below ema20 (71,316) and ema50 (71,736), with RSI(14) at 38 after touching 31 and ATR(14) re-expanding to about $247. Tech/AI risk-off and the 10Y above 5% keep BTC heavy, with the $70K psych level about 600 below the session low.
Support: 70,601.25, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,316.24, 71,457.31
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 71,457 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 70,601 session low exposes the 70,000 psych level
Rebound capped at ema20 (71,316) keeps the downtrend read intact
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly Fedspeak, could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs from 72,126; overnight 71,046–71,457 range broken lower.
Early Asia broke the overnight range and the 71,045 prior low, spiking to a 70,601 swing low before a partial recovery toward 70,940. That extends the lower-high sequence off the 72,126 NY high, as tech/AI risk-off, the 10Y above 5% and the MSTR index removal weigh. Price is below both EMAs, RSI(14) is 30.8 (not yet oversold) and ATR(14) has expanded to 24,412 pips (~$244).
Support: 70,601.25, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,045.76, 71,344.82, 71,457.31
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 71,046 prior low would mark the break below the range as a false break
Reclaim of the ema20 at 71,345 and the 71,457 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 70,601 swing low exposes the 70,000 psych level
Bounces stalling at the 38.2% of the lower-high fib (~71,183) keep the slide intact
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below both EMAs, fresh session low.
BTC dropped out of the 73,340–74,135 Asian/London range at the London-NY transition and flushed to the 71,166 ny low in NY hours. The selloff came on tech/AI risk-off and the 10Y yield holding above 5%. The 72,126 bounce failed, late NY printed a chain of lower highs below ema20, and early Asia set a new session low at 71,046. RSI(14) sits at 37, not oversold, and ATR(14) is about 21,780 pips ($218).
Support: 71,045.76, 71,000.00, 70,000.00
Resistance: 71,165.63, 71,394.60, 71,429.34
What it said to watch
A close below the 71,046 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 71,000 round number, with 70,000 psych below
A close back above the 71,166 ny low and ema20 (71,395) would ease the pressure
A break of the lower-highs trendline near the 71,429 lower high invalidates the grind-lower read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 70,000 psych level in focus
Lower-high sequence after NY selloff; early Asia basing just above the session low.
The tech/AI risk-off after Huang's Nvidia exit and Strategy's MSCI removal drove a slide through the NY session to a session low at 71,045.76 late on. Highs have stepped lower from the 72,125.57 bounce high with price below both EMAs (RSI 39.1), and early Asia is capped under the ema20 at 71,421.64 as ATR(14) compresses to ~21,419 pips.
Support: 71,045.76
Resistance: 71,421.64, 71,654.09, 72,125.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and ema20 at 71,421.64 opens a retest of the 71,654.09 lower high
Failure to hold the 71,045.76 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 70k psych level
A reclaim of the 72,125.57 bounce high invalidates the lower-high read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below ema20, holding just above a swept session low.
The London breakdown from the Asian range (73,344–74,135) extended through NY to a 71,166 prior low as Nvidia CEO Huang's exit hit tech. A late print at 71,046 around Williams' remarks swept that low before demand stepped back in. Price sits under the ema20 and ema50 with a lower-highs line capping near the 71,549 lower high, RSI 43.6 and ATR at about $214.
Support: 71,165.63, 71,045.76
Resistance: 71,443.54, 71,549.20, 71,852.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 71,046 session low resumes lower lows toward the $70K psych handle
Close above the lower-highs line and the 71,549 lower high breaks the sequence and puts the ema50 at 71,853 in view
Failure to reclaim the ema20 at 71,444 keeps the bounce off the prior low contained
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read