20:04 UTC
Macro downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 41 · price 68,935.08
Lower high at 87,273 below the 125,961 peak; six weekly declines back toward the 2026 base.
BTC has been in a macro downtrend since the Q4 2025 peak at 125,961. The June–September rebound from the 2026 low at 57,741 stalled at a lower high of 87,273, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the decline, and has since given back six straight weeks. Price sits below both the ema20 (75,696) and ema50 (77,846), and EMA(20) rolled over without crossing EMA(50), so the W1 trend filter stays negative. This week's drop to a week low of 67,505 came on hike fears, a 19-month-high dollar and ETF outflows, which leaves the jul-aug base near 62,200 as the next shelf.
Support: 62,200.00, 57,741.41
Resistance: 75,696.49, 87,272.89
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 67,505 week low exposes the jul-aug base near 62,200
- A break of the 2026 low at 57,741 would extend the downtrend below the 60,000 psych level
- A weekly close back above the ema50 at 77,846 would challenge the lower-high sequence
- A move through the 87,273 lower high and the falling lower-highs line would void the downtrend read
- Fed Chair Warsh (Mon Nov 16) and US Retail Sales (Tue Nov 17) could materially shift this read