20:07 UTC
Corrective pullback inside a larger mid-year uptrend · RSI 52 · price 76,111.18
Lower highs from the late-September cycle high, testing the post-breakout shelf.
BTC has been in a corrective pullback since the late-September cycle high at 87,273. That high capped the advance that began with the mid-August breakout from the 57,700–66,900 summer base. After four straight lower weekly closes, price sits on the Sep shelf near 76,000, where the 38.2% retracement of the jun-sep fib and EMA(20) converge. EMA(50) near 72,100 remains below, so the macro structure is intact while the lower highs build. The hawkish NFP beat and persistent ETF outflows frame the latest leg down, with the 79k cap formed by the August and spring highs now overhead.
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 76,000 Sep shelf (38.2% fib) exposes the 74,900 swing low, then the ema50 near 72,100 and the 50% retracement at 72,500
- A weekly close back above the 79k cap breaks the lower highs sequence; beyond that, the May high at 82,670 is the next ceiling
- A fresh rejection under the 87,273 cycle high would confirm a broader distribution top for the year's range
- US CPI on Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC, after the hot NFP and wage data, could materially shift this read