22:15 UTC
Uptrend since August, in corrective pullback · RSI 55 · price 77,786.34
Lower highs off 87.3k year high; retesting 76k floor.
BTC has been in an uptrend regime since the mid-August breakout from the 58k–67k Q3 base, but six weeks of lower highs from the 87,273 year high in late September have brought price back to the aug-sep lows near 76,000. That area lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 57.7k–87.3k advance. Price holds above the W1 EMA(50) and sits just over EMA(20) near 76,300, so macro structure is intact, though RSI near 54 shows momentum has drained. The post-hack relief bounce rests on short-covering against heavy spot ETF outflows, and the 80,300 23.6% fib, the May high at 82,670 and the lower-high trendline all cap above.
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 76,000 aug-sep lows would break the 38.2% fib and expose the 72,500 50% fib
- Loss of the 72,500 50% fib would put the 66,900 base top back in play and turn the regime read to range
- Weekly close above the 80,300 23.6% fib and the lower-high trendline would end the pullback sequence and bring the 82,670 May high back into view
- A move through the 82,670 May high would reopen a test of the 87,273 year high
- Midterm results overnight and any movement in the 18,270 stolen BTC could materially shift this read
- ADP and ISM Services on Wed: strong prints firm USD and yields, a headwind for a reclaim of 80k