19:08 UTC
Recovery off cycle low, stalling at 38.2% fib · RSI 62 · price 82,413.24
Double-bottom base, higher lows since June, neckline retest.
BTC fell from the Oct-2025 ATH at 126,174 to a late-June low at 57,741 and built a double-bottom base with the Feb low near 60,000. A mid-August breakout out of the 58k–67k inner range cleared the Jan–May downtrend line, and the recovery has since stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the ATH-low drop near 83,900. Price has slipped back under the 82,670 neckline but holds just above the flattening W1 EMA(50) near 81,560 and the 80,000 psych level. The hot 6.3% US PPI print has revived Fed-hike risk, a macro headwind below the 87,270 Sept high, while a softening dollar is tempering that pressure.
What it said to watch
- A weekly close back above the 82,670 neckline and the 38.2% fib reasserts the double-bottom breakout, with the 87,270 Sept high and then the 97,710 Jan high as the next references
- A weekly close below the 80,000 psych level and the W1 EMA(50) would mark a failed neckline retest and expose the 74,900 Sept low
- A break of the 74,900 Sept low ends the higher-low sequence from June and puts the Jan–May downtrend breakout in question
- Fed-hike repricing after the 6.3% PPI print and the Oct 23 S&P Global PMIs could materially shift this read