BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 16 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, rebound stalling under broken support · RSI 57 · price 81,580.16
Lower highs from 82,835; higher low at 80,835, now retesting the Asian low from below.
The NY session drop ran from the 82,835 session high to an 80,722 session low, cutting through the Asian low at 81,597 as a hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop weighed. The rebound printed a higher low at 80,835 and has stalled between the 38.2% retrace and the 81,699 rebound high, with the broken Asian low now being retested from below.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81,699 rebound high puts price inside the Asian range and opens the 82,399 lower high
Failure to hold the 81,254 swing low exposes the 80,835 higher low and 80,722 session low
Weekend IMF headlines on thin liquidity could trigger gap-style moves
Asian range broken lower, higher lows into retest.
NY hours broke the Asian low at 81597 and extended to a session low of 80722 against a hawkish-Fed backdrop after the run of hot US data. Late NY has printed rising lows at 80835 and 81255 back to the 50% fib of the drop from the 82399 NY high, and price is now retesting the Asian low from below with EMA50 still overhead.
Support: 81,254.52, 80,834.98, 80,722.10
Resistance: 81,597.14, 81,699.03, 82,399.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81597 asian low and the 81699 bounce high would reclaim the broken Asian range
Rejection at the asian low plus a break of the 81255 higher low and the rising lows line would reopen the 80835 swing low and the 80722 session low
Weekend IMF meeting headlines into thin crypto liquidity could gap this read
Lower highs from 82,835; corrective bounce capped below broken Asian low.
NY session rolled over from the 82,399 ny high, broke the Asian range low at 81,597 and bottomed at the 80,722 session low as hot US data kept the dollar firm. The late-NY rebound off the 80,835 swing low has stalled at the 38.2% fib of the London high-to-low drop near 81,530, retesting the broken asian low from beneath. RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81,597 asian low and the 81,699 spike high breaks the lower-high sequence from the ny high
Failure to hold the 81,255 higher low reopens the 80,835 swing low and the 80,722 session low
Weekend IMF meetings bring sovereign-debt headline risk into thin weekend liquidity, where gap-style moves can reshape this read
20:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stabilising off the lows · RSI 50 · price 81,522.22
Asian range low broken in NY; higher low at 80,835 now retesting the break.
BTC broke below the Asian low at 81,597 during NY hours and ran to a session low of 80,722, on macro-driven selling with no crypto-specific news. Price has since printed a higher low at 80,835 and is retesting the broken Asian low, near the 38.2% retrace of the day high–low move. RSI(14) is neutral near 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 81,597 and the 81,699 spike high negates the breakdown read; the 82,399 lower high from the NY morning is the next cap above
Loss of the 81,255 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 80,835 higher low and the 80,722 session low
Weekend IMF meeting headlines carry gap-style risk on thin weekend crypto liquidity
Lower highs from 82835; higher low at 80835 inside 80722–81700 box.
NY session broke the Asian low near 81597 and extended to a session low at 80722, with the hot US data run and a Warsh speech offering no fresh guidance keeping BTC heavy. Late NY is boxed between the 80835 higher low and the 81638 lower high, which capped the bounce between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the NY selloff fib under the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 81,000.00, 80,835.00, 80,722.00
Resistance: 81,638.00, 82,399.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81638 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence and reclaims the Asian low
Failure to hold the 80835 higher low exposes the 80722 session low; the 81000 round number is the first test
Rejection again near the 82399 ny high if a recovery extends that far
Weekend IMF meeting headlines on thin crypto liquidity could produce gap-style moves
19:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off day low · RSI 48 · price 81,492.25
Lower highs from London high; higher low forming after NY flush.
Rejection at the London session high of 82,835 was followed by a lower high at 82,399. The NY session then broke the Asian low at 81,597 and flushed to a day low of 80,722, with the hot US PPI keeping hike risk in the tone. A higher low at 80,835 has driven a bounce into 81,500–81,700. Here the Asian low, the post-low spike high, the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% sell-off fib converge, with RSI(14) back near 48.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81,700 spike high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reclaims the Asian low
Rejection at 81,600–81,700 keeps the lower-high sequence from the London high intact
Loss of the 80,835 higher low reopens the 80,722 day low
Weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) and Fedspeak on hike pricing could shift this read in thin weekend trade
Lower highs from 82835; compression between the 80835 higher low and the 81383 lower high.
With hike-risk repricing after the hot PPI as the macro backdrop, NY session broke the Asian low at 81597 and printed a session low at 80722. The rebound capped at 81699, the rebound high between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 82835–80722 drop. Late NY is now compressing between a higher low at 80835 and a lower high near 81383, with demand defending the 81000 round number, RSI(14) neutral at 46 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 81,000.00, 80,835.00, 80,722.00
Resistance: 81,383.00, 81,597.00, 81,699.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81383 lower high breaks the compression; the 81597 asian low is the next cap overhead
Reclaim of the 81699 rebound high would end the lower-high sequence from 82835
Loss of the 81000 round number exposes the 80835 higher low and the 80722 session low
Weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17-18) and Fedspeak on hike pricing could materially shift this read in thin weekend liquidity
Lower highs from 82,835; tight late-NY range 80,720–81,400.
NY session unwound the London rally to 82,835, breaking the asian low at 81,597 and printing a session low at 80,722 as Fed-hike risk from the hot PPI print weighed. Since then, lower highs at the 81,699 spike high and the 81,383 lower high have kept price in a tight late-NY consolidation just above the 81,000 round number. RSI(14) is near 39, neutral-weak rather than stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,383 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs sequence
Recovery through the asian low at 81,597 and the 81,699 spike high (38.2–50% fib zone) would negate the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 81,000 round number and the 80,835 swing low exposes the 80,722 session low and extends the lower-low chain
Weekend IMF meetings and any Fedspeak on hike pricing could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low sequence from the 82,835 high; Asian range low broken.
BTC has carved lower highs and lower lows since the 82,835 London-NY transition high. NY hours broke the Asian low at 81,597. The 17:30 UTC spike high at 81,699 was sold back, and price is now pressing the 80,722 swing low after London close. RSI(14) sits near 37, below both EMAs, as the hot US PPI and retail data keep Fed-hike risk weighing on BTC.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 80,722 swing low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 80,000 psych level in play
A recovery above the 81,383 lower high and the broken asian low at 81,597 would stall the sell-off; the 81,699 spike high marks the lower-high line
Weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17-18) and Fedspeak on hike pricing, in thinner weekend trade, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 82835; Asian range broken lower.
NY session broke the Asian low near 81600 and kept printing lower highs from 82835 down to an 80722 session low, with BTC heavy as the hot PPI print kept Fed-hike risk alive. The late-NY spike to 81699 was rejected below the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop. Price is now compressing between the 81080 spike base and the 81470 lower high, with RSI(14) near 42 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 81,080.00, 80,722.00
Resistance: 81,470.00, 81,600.00, 81,699.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 81470 lower high breaks the descending trendline, with the 81600 asian low and the 81699 spike high above
Losing the 81080 spike base exposes the 80722 session low and extends the lower-low chain
The Monthly Budget Statement (18:00 UTC, result not yet in feed) and the weekend IMF meetings could shift the USD and this read
London's push above the Asian high to 82835 failed. NY then broke the Asian low at 81597, printing a lower high at 82399 and a session low at 80722 by 17:15 UTC, with hot US PPI keeping a USD-driven headwind on BTC. The 17:30 bounce high stalled near the 61.8% of the NY leg fib, and price is holding just above the 81080 micro low with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 81,080.00, 80,722.10
Resistance: 81,597.14, 81,699.03, 82,399.26
What it said to watch
Close back above the 81597 asian low and the 81699 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81080 micro low exposes the 80722 session low
Monthly Budget Statement (18:00 UTC, actual not yet in feed) and weekend IMF headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows under the broken Asian low.
London's push above the Asian range to 82,835 was a false break. NY then cut through the Asian low near 81,600 and made a session low at 80,722, extending a lower-high chain (82,835 → 82,399) in line with the AI-led risk-off tone rather than the softer dollar. The 17:30 UTC spike high at 81,699 was rejected beneath the old Asian low, with price holding just above the 81,000 round number. RSI(14) sits near 36, price is below both EMAs, and ATR is elevated at roughly $320.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 81,699 spike high, past the 38.2% fib of the 82,835–80,722 drop near 81,530, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81,000 round number exposes the 80,722 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
The Monthly Budget Statement (18:00 UTC, f/c -$29B) lands on the current bar and could jolt this read
Friday-evening thin liquidity heading into the weekend IMF meetings can amplify wicks around the asian low
Lower highs and lower lows through NY session; Asian low broken; reversal bar off 80722.
London lifted price above the Asian range to 82835 and then failed. NY broke the Asian low at 81597, setting a lower high at 82399 and a lower-low chain into an 80722 session low. The 17:30 UTC bar swept the psych 81000 area and snapped back to a 81699 spike high, with the hawkish-USD read after the hot PPI print still the backdrop.
Support: 81,000.00, 80,722.10
Resistance: 81,597.14, 81,699.03, 82,399.26
What it said to watch
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
Acceptance back above the asian low at 81597 and the 81699 spike high would challenge the downtrend read
Loss of psych 81000 reopens the 80722 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
82399 lower high caps the NY sequence; the lower highs trendline holds unless price clears it
17:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended into NY · RSI 28 · price 80,880.93
Asian range broken lower; lower-high chain from London high.
London's push above the Asian range to an 82835 session high failed. NY has since broken below the Asian low near 81600 and printed lower highs into an 80722 session low, with RSI(14) near 28. The digest ties the drag to Fed-hike risk after the hot PPI and retail prints. Post-London-close follow-through remains orderly, with no capitulation-style extreme.
Support: 80,722.10, 80,000.00
Resistance: 81,157.62, 81,600.00, 82,834.78
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81158 prior low breaks the lower-highs trendline and stalls the session drop
Recovery through the 81600 asian low (near the 38.2% retrace of the session drop) negates the range break
Loss of the 80722 session low extends the move toward the 80000 round number
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Downtrend, persistent through NY session · RSI 25 · price 81,001.79
Lower highs and lower lows since 82,399 NY high; Asian range low broken.
Since the 82,399 NY high at 14:15 UTC, BTC has printed a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Price broke the Asian low at 81,597 and is now pressing the 81,000 round number at the session low, with RSI(14) near 25. BTC is staying heavy on lingering Fed-hike risk from Thursday's hot PPI, even as the dollar softens.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81,158 prior low would stall the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 81,597 Asian low and the lower highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Sustained trade below the 81,000 round number extends the session low
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could move yields and materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower-high chain 82835 → 82399 → 81581.
London's spike to 82,835 above the Asian range high was rejected. NY then broke the 81,597 Asian low and printed a session low at 81,158, with hot US PPI and retail data keeping Fed-hike risk in play. Lower highs at 82,399 and 81,581 sit under a descending trendline, and RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81,597 asian low reclaims the range and negates the breakdown
Failure to hold the 81,158 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
Bounces stalling below the fib 38.2 retrace of the 82,835–81,158 drop (~81,800) keep the lower-high sequence intact
Close above the 82,399 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, after London close, could shift USD and yields and move this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 39 · price 81,473.28
Lower-high/lower-low chain below broken Asian range low.
London's push above the Asian range to 82835 failed. NY then broke the Asian low at 81597 and printed lower highs under a falling trendline down to a session low of 81158, with hot US PPI and IP data keeping hike risk as the macro headwind. Late NY, price is holding a 81350–81580 band, RSI(14) near 39 and below both EMAs.
Support: 81,157.62, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,597.14, 82,399.26
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the Asian low at 81597 would neutralise the NY range break
Failure to hold the 81158 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81000 round number
Close above the 38.2% fib at ~81800 and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 82399 lower high caps above
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could shift yields and this read
Asian range low broken in NY; lower high at 82399 and session low at 81158.
BTC rejected the 82835 London high and broke below the Asian low at 81597 after the NY open. A lower high at 82399 preceded the drop to an 81158 session low, with hike risk from Thursday's hot PPI weighing on risk. Price is now bouncing just under the broken Asian low, with RSI(14) near 39 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 81,157.62, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,597.14, 82,399.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81597 asian low invalidates the range break
Failure to hold the 81158 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 81000 round number
A break of the descending trendline and the 82399 lower high negates the intraday downtrend
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via Treasury yields
Asian range low broken in NY; bounce stalling under it.
The London spike to 82835 fully unwound. NY then broke the asian low at 81597 and printed a session low at 81158, extending a lower-high chain from 82835 and 82399. The bounce is stalling just under the former Asian low, with RSI(14) at 38 and price below both EMAs as USD-hike risk weighs.
Support: 81,157.62, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,597.14, 81,798.30, 82,399.26
What it said to watch
A close back above the 81597 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 81158 session low extends the lower lows toward the 81000 round number
A push through the fib 38.2 at 81798 and the lower-high line near 82100 would break the intraday downtrend
The Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could move yields and USD, and with them this read
16:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending through NY · RSI 31 · price 81,236.54
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high; Asian range broken lower.
London pushed above the Asian range to a London high at 82835, then the move was rejected. NY printed a lower high at 82399 and broke through the asian low at 81597, extending to a fresh session low near 81237. The slide tracks the broader risk-off tone. RSI(14) sits near 31 and is not yet oversold.
Support: 81,236.54, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,597.14, 82,399.26, 82,834.78
What it said to watch
A move back above the asian low at 81597 would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the session low near 81237 leaves the 81000 round number as the next reference
An M15 close above the 82399 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline read
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could shift this read via Treasury yields
15:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 37 · price 81,571.17
Lower-high, lower-low sequence; Asian range broken lower in NY.
London took out the Asian range high to 82,835, then reversed. NY broke the 81,597 Asian low and printed a session low at 81,378, extending the lower-high, lower-low chain under the 82,399 lower high. Price is now retesting the broken Asian low from below with RSI(14) near 37, and the risk-off tone is weighing more than USD strength, since the dollar itself is softer.
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above the 81,597 asian low turns the NY break into a false break
Failure to hold the 81,378 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
M15 close above the 82,399 lower high invalidates the lower-high sequence and the NY selloff read
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could move Treasury yields and shift this read
15:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 33 · price 81,547.19
Lower highs and lower lows, Asian range low broken during NY hours.
The NY sell-off from the 82,835 London high cut through the Asian low at 81,597 and set a 24h low at 81,378. That leaves a lower high at 82,399 and price pinned under both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 33. The move came against a hot-PPI, hike-risk backdrop weighing on BTC.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81,597 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 81,378 24h low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
Reclaim of the fib 38.2 at ~81,935 would mark the first bounce with structure behind it
Break of the lower-highs trendline above the 82,399 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could shift yields and this read
15:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London spike · RSI 29 · price 81,632.10
Failed break above Asian high, lower highs and lower lows into NY, testing Asian low.
The London spike cleared the 82,429 Asian range high to a london high of 82,835 but failed. NY has since printed a lower high at 82,399 and swept to an 81,416 session low, now hovering just above the 81,597 asian low with RSI(14) near 29. The hot US PPI print keeps Fed-hike risk as the macro weight on BTC.
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below the 81,597 asian low confirm the range break and expose the 81,416 session low
A recovery back above the 82,000 round number would flag the drop below the Asian low as a false break
M15 close above the 82,399 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence from the london high
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could move Treasury yields and shift this read
15:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 41 · price 81,861.85
Lower highs off London high; NY bounce rejected near 61.8%.
The London spike to the 82835 high fully unwound. NY open dipped to the 81621 NY low, just above the 81597 Asian low, and the bounce stalled at the 82399 NY high near the 61.8% retrace before slipping back under the 82000 round number. That leaves a lower-highs sequence intact against a hawkish-PPI USD backdrop, RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 81,621.11, 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,000.00, 82,399.26, 82,834.78
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82000 round number and through the 82399 NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 81621 NY low and 81597 Asian low confirms a lower low below the day's range floor
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could shift USD and yields and alter this read
Retest of the 82835 London high would neutralise the 61.8% rejection
London false break above Asian high, unwound to range lows, bounce stalling mid-range.
London's spike to the 82,835 london high, above the 82,429 asian high, failed and unwound into the NY open. That unwind printed a 81,621 ny low just above the 81,597 asian low. The NY bounce stalled at an 82,399 swing high near the 61.8% retrace; price sits mid-range with RSI(14) ~46, as USD softness offsets hot US data.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,399 swing high and 82,429 asian high reopens the 82,835 london high
Loss of the 81,621 ny low and 81,597 asian low breaks the 24h range lower
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could shift USD and Treasury yields, and with them this read
14:32 UTC
Range, NY rebound into mid-range · RSI 46 · price 82,294.37
False break above Asian high reversed; NY low held above Asian low.
London's spike through the 82429 Asian high and 82539 prior high to an 82835 session high was fully reversed. The NY open flush stopped at 81621, just above the 81597 Asian low. In the first hour of NY, price has retraced into the 50–61.8% fib of that drop (82228–82371), and RSI(14) sits near 46 as the dollar stays heavy despite today's industrial production beat.
Support: 81,621.11, 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,429.22, 82,539.10, 82,834.78
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82429 Asian high reopens the 82539 prior high and the 82835 session high
Rejection in the 82371–82399 fib zone keeps the drop from the session high as the dominant swing
Loss of the 81931 range floor exposes the 81621 NY low and the 81597 Asian low
The Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and any renewed Fed-hike repricing could materially shift this read
London false break above Asian high reversed; NY dip held above Asian low.
The London high at 82835, a spike above the Asian high, was fully reversed by 13:00 UTC. The NY open dip printed the NY low at 81621, just above the Asian low at 81597, and price rebounded despite the hot US data run as the dollar stayed soft. Price is now pinned at the EMA20/50 cluster near 82120 with RSI(14) at 49, below the 50% fib of the drop at 82228.
Support: 81,763.00, 81,621.00, 81,597.00
Resistance: 82,228.00, 82,430.00, 82,835.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 82228 and the asian high at 82430 reopens the london high at 82835
Loss of the london low at 81763, then a close below the ny low at 81621 and asian low at 81597, breaks the Asian range lower
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; a Treasury yield reaction could shift this read
14:04 UTC
Intraday range, fading off session high · RSI 45 · price 81,965.73
False break above Asian high, lower highs back toward range floor.
London's push through the 82429 Asian high ran to an 82835 session high at 11:15 UTC, then fully reversed into the overnight range. A false break. The slide extended after the hot 0.7% IP print and tagged an 81621 session low, just above the 81597 Asian low set around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks, with supply capping a lower high at 82352 and RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 81,621.11, 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,352.31, 82,429.22, 82,834.78
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81597 Asian low confirms a lower-low and breaks the overnight range floor
Recovery above the 82352 lower high invalidates the fade sequence off the session high
Reclaim of the 82429 Asian high reopens a test of the 82835 session high
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin weekend liquidity into the IMF meetings can amplify moves
13:47 UTC
Intraday range, sequence of lower highs since London · RSI 46 · price 81,927.78
False break above the prior high at 82,540 reversed back into the range; NY session pressing the lows.
London lifted price through the Asian range and yesterday's prior high at 82,540 to an 82,835 session high, but the break failed. Since then a chain of lower highs, the last at 82,352, has formed. The hot US Industrial Production print (0.7% vs 0.4%) at 13:15 UTC drove a dip to an 81,685 session low, which held above the 81,597 Asian low.
What it said to watch
A close below the 81,685 session low and the 81,597 Asian low confirms a lower low beneath the overnight range
A close back above the 82,352 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and reopens the 82,540 prior high
Thin liquidity into the weekend IMF meetings, plus possible Fed-speak, can amplify moves; the 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is low impact
False break above overnight range, lower highs since 82835.
London's push above the overnight range top near 82540 ran to an 82835 session high, then failed. A steady sell-off from 12:00 UTC, through hotter US import prices, has fully unwound that rally. Price is now pressing the 81864 intraday low beneath the 82000 psych level in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) near 43 and no extreme.
Support: 81,864.00, 81,763.00, 81,597.00
Resistance: 82,000.00, 82,352.00, 82,835.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 81763 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 81597 asian low
Reclaim of 82000 psych and a break of the 82352 lower high would neutralise the down-leg read
Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC has drawn a muted reaction so far; Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin weekend liquidity can amplify moves
Retest of the 82835 session high would revisit the false break zone
London false break above prior high reversed; lower highs inside Asian range.
London lifted BTC through yesterday's 82539 prior high to an 82835 session high. The break failed and the whole leg has unwound, leaving a lower high at 82352 and price back inside the Asian range near 81940, testing the 81864 swing low. RSI(14) is neutral at ~46, and the dollar has been fading this week's hot PPI and retail sales, so US Industrial Production is landing on a balanced tape.
Support: 81,863.85, 81,762.96, 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,352.31, 82,539.10, 82,834.78
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production (13:15 UTC, f/c 0.4%) prints in the current bar and could break the range either way
Failure to hold the 81864 swing low exposes the 81763 london low, then the 81597 asian low from the Warsh-hour dip
A close back above the 82352 lower high weakens the false-break read; a reclaim of the 82539 prior high reopens the session high
Price is already below the 78.6% fib of the London leg, so that leg is effectively fully retraced
Thin weekend liquidity around the IMF meetings can amplify moves into the NY session
81,600–82,540 range; false break above top, lower high forming.
The London leg from the 81,763 london low ran to an 82,835 session high, a false break of yesterday's 82,540 prior high that was rejected. Price is back near 81,990 early in the NY session after the hotter US import-price print at 12:30 UTC, about 79% into the london leg fib, with a lower high capped at 82,352 and the 81,932 swing low just below. The wider range is intact, with its floor at the 81,597 asian low set around Warsh's remarks.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,932 swing low exposes the 81,763 london low, then the 81,597 asian low
Recovery above the 82,352 lower high and back over the 82,540 prior high would put the 82,835 session high back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; thin weekend liquidity can amplify the move
False break above the prior high, price back inside the overnight range.
Late-London push from the london low at 81763 cleared the Asian range top (82429) and the prior high at 82539. It printed a session high of 82835 before the 12:00 UTC bar unwound it back to the 61.8% breakout fib near 82170, a false break despite a softer USD backdrop. Price now sits just under both EMAs with RSI neutral near 51; the pullback low at 82050 is the nearest floor and the minor high at 82352 caps the rebound, with the asian low at 81597 the range floor.
Support: 81,762.96, 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,352.31, 82,539.10, 82,834.78
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands into the NY open and could materially shift this read
Close below the 82050 pullback low exposes the 78.6% breakout fib near 81990 and the london low at 81763
Reclaim of the 82352 minor high and the 82540 prior high would reopen a test of the 82835 session high
Loss of the 81597 asian low would break the 24h range floor
Range 81600–82540 since yesterday's post-PPI recovery; London spike above range top reversed.
London lifted BTC from the london low at 81763 through the asian high and prior high to a session high of 82835. It gave it all back within the hour to a pullback low at 82050, leaving a false break of the range top. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of that leg, flat on EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 after yesterday's hot PPI set the 79737 low.
Support: 81,762.96, 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,429.22, 82,539.10, 82,834.78
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 82539 prior high turns the false break into a breakout retest
Failure to hold the 82050 pullback low exposes the london low at 81763, then the asian low at 81597
Asian high at 82429 is the first cap; repeated rejection there keeps the range read intact
False break above Asian high, back inside the 81597–82429 overnight range.
Late London pushed through the 82429 asian high and the 82539 prior high to an 82835 session high, then rejected. Price is back below the 61.8% of the 81763–82835 London leg, with RSI(14) near 48, at the London-NY transition. The PPI-driven dip to 79737 yesterday has been fully recovered, and the 81597 asian low (the Warsh-hour dip) and 81763 london low form a rising-lows line beneath.
Support: 82,000.00, 81,763.00, 81,597.00
Resistance: 82,429.00, 82,539.00, 82,835.00
What it said to watch
Loss of the 82000 round number exposes the 81763 london low and the rising-lows line
M15 close below 81597 asian low breaks the overnight range to the downside
Reclaim of 82429 asian high reopens the 82539 prior high and 82835 session high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
Thin weekend liquidity around the IMF meetings can amplify moves
12:03 UTC
Short-term up after London range break, pulling back · RSI 60 · price 82,560.08
Breakout above overnight range top, retest in progress.
BTC spent Asia boxed between roughly 81600 and the 82540 range top, which is also the prior high from yesterday's post-PPI rebound. London cleared it at 11:00 UTC, and the breakout leg ran to an 82835 session high. The current bar is retesting 82540 from above with RSI(14) cooled to about 60. Lows have stepped up from 81597 at the 03:30 UTC Warsh remarks to the 81763 swing low, forming a line of rising lows.
Support: 82,540.00, 82,145.00, 81,763.00
Resistance: 82,835.00, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 82540 range top would turn the move into a false break and reopen the 82145 break base, near the 61.8% retracement of the breakout leg.
Clearing the 82835 session high opens the 83000 round number.
A break of the 81763 swing low ends the rising lows sequence.
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, against the hawkish PPI backdrop, could materially shift this read.
London range break above the Asian high, higher low intact.
London broke the Asian high at 82430 and the prior high at 82540, which had capped price since yesterday's post-PPI recovery. It printed a session high at 82835 and is now easing back to retest 82540, RSI(14) ~62. The London low at 81763 held as a higher low above the 81597 dip at 03:30 UTC, which came with Warsh's remarks, and marks the base of the breakout leg.
Support: 81,762.96
Resistance: 82,834.78
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 82430 turns the range break into a false break
Close above the 82835 session high opens the 83,000 round number
Loss of the 81763 london low breaks the higher lows sequence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could shift USD tone and this read; thin weekend liquidity can amplify moves
Higher low at 81763 above 81597, break above the 82540 range top.
After Thursday's hot PPI and retail-sales flush to 79737, BTC held an 81840–82540 range overnight. Buyers stepped in at the 81597 Asian low on Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks and again at the 81763 London low. Late-London bars broke the range top to an 82835 session high, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 82,540.00, 81,763.00, 81,597.00
Resistance: 82,835.00, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82540 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
Rejection at the 82835 session high below the 83000 psych level keeps the move capped; acceptance above opens the next leg
Fib 50% of the 81763–82835 leg sits near 82300, a pullback reference inside the old range
Failure of the 81763 London low breaks the higher-low trendline from 81597
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) and thin weekend liquidity could amplify moves
11:16 UTC
Range resolving higher, breakout under retest · RSI 62 · price 82,514.13
Higher lows from asian low, range top cleared in late London.
Since Thursday's post-PPI flush to 79,737 and rebound, BTC held an 81,597 asian low to 82,540 range top band. London dipped to an 81,763 london low before a 10:45 UTC surge broke the range top to an 82,625 session high as USD slipped after Warsh gave no rate guidance. Price is now retesting the range top, and the 38.2% of the London leg sits at the 82,300 london high.
What it said to watch
A close back under the 82,300 london high turns the range-top breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 82,540 range top and a clear of the 82,625 session high extends the London leg
Loss of the 81,763 london low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 81,597 asian low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%), ahead of NY open, could materially shift this read
11:04 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI V-reversal · RSI 51 · price 82,138.54
Contracting range, lower highs vs higher lows.
The hot PPI flush to 79737 fully reversed into the 82539 post-ppi hi. Since then BTC has compressed, with lower highs at the asian high and london high and a higher low at the 81763 london low above the 81597 asian low, which was set on the Warsh dip. Mid-London, price is back near 82140 at the middle of the range, with RSI flat near 51.
Support: 81,762.96, 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,299.37, 82,429.22, 82,539.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82299 london high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 82429 asian high back in play
Loss of the 81763 london low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 81597 asian low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands near NY open and could resolve the compression
Range 81597–82539 since yesterday's NY rally; London inside the Asian range.
BTC has ranged between 81597 and 82539 since recovering yesterday's PPI-driven flush to 79737. The pullback has stayed well above the 38.2% of that post-PPI rally (~81470). Late London has bounced from the london low at 81763 back to mid-range under a lower-highs line from 82429, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and price hugging both EMAs.
Support: 81,762.96, 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,539.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 82300 breaks the lower-highs line and puts the range top at 82539 back in play
Failure to hold the london low at 81763 exposes the asian low at 81597, set around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) in the NY session could break the range either way
Contracting range: lower highs since 82,539, higher low above 81,597.
After the hot-PPI V-turn from 79,737 to the 82,539 swing high, BTC has ranged for about 17 hours. Each session has printed a lower high along a descending line, while the Asian low at 81,597 (set during Warsh's remarks) holds. Mid-London, price trades inside the Asian range (81,597–82,429) and is testing the 81,763 London low, sitting just above the 23.6% retracement of the rally, with RSI(14) near 43 and price below EMA20/EMA50.
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands in the first hour of NY and could break the contraction either way
M15 close below the 81,597 asian low breaks the higher-low line and opens the 38.2% retracement near 81,470
M15 close above the 82,300 london high and the descending line invalidates the lower-high sequence, with the 82,429 asian high and the 82,539 swing high above
Thin weekend liquidity around the IMF meetings can exaggerate range breaks
10:16 UTC
Range, rolling over in London · RSI 34 · price 81,845.87
81600–82540 range since the PPI rebound; London printed lower highs and lost the 81925 range floor.
After the hot PPI flush to 79737, BTC rebounded to the 82539 prior high and has ranged below it since. London was rejected at the 82299 London high and has since slipped through the 81925 range floor to a 81763 session low, sitting on the 23.6% rebound fib with RSI(14) near 34 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 81,762.96, 81,597.14
Resistance: 81,925.00, 82,299.37, 82,539.10
What it said to watch
A close back above the 81925 range floor would mark the London dip as a false break
Failure to hold the 81763 session low exposes the 81597 Asian low, which is also the post-Warsh trough
A recovery through the 82299 London high would reopen the 82539 prior high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift USD and risk tone, with thin weekend liquidity amplifying moves
Range 81600–82540 since post-PPI V-reversal; London lower highs.
The hot PPI print flushed BTC to 79737 yesterday before a full V-reversal to the 82539 range top, and the pair has held a 81600–82540 range since. Mid-London, price has printed lower highs off the 82299 london high and is pressing the 81840 swing low, sitting on the 23.6% fib of the post-PPI rally with RSI(14) near 37. The Asian range (81597 asian low to 82429 asian high) is still intact.
Support: 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,299.37, 82,429.22, 82,539.10
What it said to watch
A close below the 81840 swing low exposes the 81597 asian low, with the 38.2% post-PPI rally fib near 81470 beneath
A reclaim of the london lower highs line and the 82299 london high neutralises the London drift, putting the 82429 asian high and 82539 range top back in focus
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, early NY session, could expand the range in either direction
Thin weekend liquidity during the IMF meetings can amplify a break of the range
Range 81850–82540 after post-PPI V-reversal; London inside Asian range.
Yesterday's hot-PPI flush to 79,737 reversed into a rally that has stalled in an 81,850–82,540 range. Asia's dip to the 81,597 asian low around Warsh's remarks held above the 38.2% of the post-PPI rally and was reclaimed. London is trading inside the Asian range, has slipped below its rising-lows line from the 81,925 swing low, and is pressing the 81,990 session low, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and price under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,990 session low and 81,925 swing low opens a retest of the 81,597 asian low
Recovery above the 82,300 london high puts the 82,430 asian high and 82,540 prior high back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC into the NY open could break the range; thin weekend liquidity can amplify the move
London HH/HL grind stalling at 82,300 inside the Asian range.
Yesterday's hot US PPI flushed price to 79,737, but the drop was fully reversed into the 82,540 prior high. Since then it has held an 81,600–82,540 range, holding above the 23.6% of the post-PPI rally. London built higher lows up to the 82,300 London high, and price is now slipping back toward the 82,000 London low. RSI(14) sits neutral near 52 with price under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Break of the london low at 82,004, then the swing low at 81,925, ends the London higher-low sequence
An M15 close above the london high at 82,300 puts the prior high at 82,540 back in focus
Loss of the asian low at 81,597 opens the 38.2% of the post-PPI rally near 81,470
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
London range nested inside Asian range; higher lows vs flat-to-lower highs.
BTC is holding inside the Asian range (81,597–82,429), well above the post-PPI rally base at 79,737. That rally topped at the 82,539 prior high, and highs since then are slightly lower. The 03:30 UTC dip to the asian low came around Warsh's remarks and was bought back quickly. London has stayed within 82,004–82,299, with a higher low printed at 82,075. RSI(14) is near 53 and price sits on flat EMAs, so there is no impulse in play.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,299 london high, then the 82,429 asian high, would test the lower highs line off the 82,539 prior high
Loss of the 82,075 higher low and the 82,004 london low reopens the 81,597 asian low; below that sits the 38.2% retrace of the post-PPI rally near 81,470
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) during NY hours could break the session range
Thin weekend liquidity around the IMF meetings can amplify a range break
81,600–82,540 range; lower highs from asian high, London inside Asian range.
The hot US PPI and retail sales releases at 12:30 UTC yesterday flushed BTC to 79,737, but the post-PPI rally reversed it to the 82,539 prior high. Since then price has rotated in a range, and the dip to the 81,597 asian low around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks held between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib levels. London is trading inside the Asian range, with lower highs from the 82,429 asian high squeezing price onto the EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,300 london high and the lower-highs line opens the 82,429 asian high, then the 82,539 prior high.
Losing the 82,004 london low and the 81,925 swing low exposes the 81,597 asian low and the 38.2% post-PPI fib near 81,470.
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could break the compression; thin weekend liquidity can amplify the move.
08:48 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since Asian dip · RSI 64 · price 82,274.39
Post-data range 81597–82539, higher-low chain from Asian low.
Early London trades in the upper half of the range that followed yesterday's hot-PPI flush to 79,737, which was reclaimed in full toward the 82,539 prior high. The 81,597 Asian low printed as a sweep of the overnight low around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks. Since then rising support has carried a higher-low chain (81,924 swing low, then the 82,073 higher low) back up into the 82,334 swing high, with RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82,334 swing high exposes the 82,429 Asian high and the 82,539 prior high.
A break of rising support and the 82,073 higher low shifts focus back to the 81,924 swing low and the 81,597 Asian low.
The data rally fib 23.6% sits near 81,878, just under the swing low. Losing it would deepen the retracement of yesterday's rebound.
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
Range 81597–82539 since post-data high; higher lows from Asian low.
Hot US PPI knocked BTC to 79737 before a full reversal to the 82539 rally high. Since then it has held a 81597–82539 range. The Asian low at 81597 on Warsh's non-committal remarks was a quick false break that was reclaimed, and early London is now coiling between the 82000 round number and the 82268 london high on higher lows, RSI flat near 50.
Support: 82,000.00, 81,925.00, 81,597.00
Resistance: 82,268.00, 82,430.00, 82,539.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 82268 london high opens the 82430 asian high, then the 82539 rally high
Loss of the 82000 round number and the 81925 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence
Holding above the 38.2% of the post-PPI rally (~81470) keeps the reversal structure intact; the 81597 asian low is the first test
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
81,597–82,539 range; lower highs and higher lows compressing through London.
Yesterday's hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC sent BTC to 79,737. It then rebounded in a V to the 82,539 range top as the dollar faded, and the pullbacks since have held above the 38.2% level of that post-data rally. The Asia dip to the 81,597 asian low around Warsh's remarks was bought. Early London is compressing between the 82,004 london low and the 82,268 london high, with lower highs off the 82,429 asian high and higher lows; RSI is neutral near 53 and price sits just above flat EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,268 london high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 82,429 asian high and the 82,539 range top back in play
Failure to hold the 81,924 higher low breaks the compression and exposes the 81,597 asian low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
08:03 UTC
Sideways, higher lows building into London · RSI 60 · price 82,227.45
Range 81,597–82,539 after post-PPI reversal; lows stepping up since Warsh dip.
BTC has been held between the 82,539 prior high and the 81,597 Asian low since the post-PPI reversal from 79,737. The Asian low printed on Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks, then a higher low formed at 82,003 above the 81,924 swing low. Early London is pressing the 82,231 session high with RSI(14) near 60, below the 82,334 swing high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,334 swing high opens the 82,429 Asian high and the 82,539 prior high
Break below the 82,003 higher low and the 81,924 swing low ends the higher-lows sequence, exposing the 81,597 Asian low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift this read via yields and USD
Range 81597–82539 since Thursday NY session; lower highs, early London mid-range.
BTC has ranged 81597–82539 since the post-PPI rebound from 79737 in Thursday's NY session. The 03:30 UTC dip to the warsh low at 81597 was bought back, and early London is trading mid-range near 82140 with RSI(14) neutral at 55. Highs are stepping lower from the ny high at 82539 to the asian high at 82429 and the pre-ldn high at 82334.
Support: 81,924.78, 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,334.33, 82,429.22, 82,539.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the pre-ldn high at 82334 breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the asian high at 82429 and ny high at 82539 in play
Failure to hold the 81925 swing low exposes the warsh low at 81597, the range floor
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift this read via yields and USD
A break below the warsh low opens a deeper retracement of the post-PPI rally toward the 38.2% near 81460
81,925–82,430 Asian range with lower highs below the 82,539 rally high.
Yesterday's hot PPI and retail sales flushed BTC to 79,737, but the move reversed into an 82,539 rally high. Since then highs have printed lower at 82,489, 82,482, the 82,429 Asian high and the 82,334 lower high. The 03:30 UTC wick to the 81,597 Warsh low was rejected inside the bar, and price is now pinned near flat EMAs mid-range with RSI(14) neutral at ~53 as London opens.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82,430 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 82,539 rally high
A close back above the 82,334 lower high is the first sign the compression is resolving higher
Losing the 81,925 range floor reopens the 81,597 Warsh low, with the fib 38.2 of the PPI rally at 81,469 below
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift the read via yields and USD
Lower highs from 82539 window high, floor at 81925–81600.
BTC recovered the post-PPI flush to 79737 and peaked at the 82539 window high. Since then it has printed lower highs at 82429 and 82334. The Warsh-timed Asia dip to the 81597 asian low was reclaimed, and London has opened mid-range near 82120, capped by the 82211 london high, with the 81925 intraday low holding and RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 81,924.78, 81,597.14, 81,468.80
Resistance: 82,211.46, 82,334.33, 82,539.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82334 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 82539 window high back in play
Loss of the 81925 intraday low exposes the 81597 asian low, then the fib 38.2 at 81469
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside a 81,600–82,540 band; Asian range still intact.
Yesterday's flush to 79,737 after the hot US PPI and retail data was fully reversed into the 82,539 rally high during NY, and the move has since compressed into a lower-high sequence. Asia's dip to the 81,597 asian low around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks met a rejection and held above the 23.6% level of the rally fib. Price sits mid-range near 82,126 into London open, with RSI(14) neutral at about 56.
What it said to watch
Break of the 82,334 swing high, then the 82,429 asian high, would end the lower-high sequence and put the 82,539 rally high back in play
Failure to hold the 81,925 swing low exposes the 81,597 asian low; a close below it breaks the 38.2% zone of the rally fib near 81,470
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
06:48 UTC
Sideways after NY V-recovery, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 82,038.65
Compression: lower highs from 82,539, higher lows off the 81,597 Asian low.
Hot US PPI and retail data at 12:30 UTC flushed price to 79,737, then it V-recovered to the 82,539 range high as USD faded. Since then the range has compressed into lower highs and higher lows, with the Asian low at 81,597 swept and reclaimed around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks. Ahead of London open, price sits flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 51, holding above the 23.6% of the NY rally fib (~81,878).
What it said to watch
Close above the 82,162 lower high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 82,429 Asian high, then the 82,539 range high
Loss of the 81,925 higher low and 81,841 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 81,597 Asian low back in play
A move back below the 23.6% NY rally fib (~81,878) would weaken the post-flush recovery structure
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could resolve the compression during NY hours
06:32 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI V-reversal, Asia drifting lower · RSI 47 · price 81,991.70
81,600–82,540 range with an Asia lower-high sequence.
The hot US PPI print triggered a flush to 79,737. Price then V-reversed to an 82,539 ppi high in the NY session and has held a range since, with the late-NY dip stalling at the 81,841 ny low. Through Asia the market printed lower highs at the 82,429 asian high and the 82,334 lower high. The 03:30 UTC Warsh-hour spike to the 81,597 asian low was bought, and price now sits on the 81,925 recent low into London open, RSI(14) near 47 and below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81,925 recent low and the 81,841 ny low exposes the 81,597 asian low, which sits above the 38.2% retracement of the post-PPI rally (~81,470)
M15 close above the 82,334 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs line and reopens the 82,429 asian high / 82,539 ppi high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift this read via yields and the USD
06:17 UTC
Range after NY reversal, Asia drifting lower · RSI 48 · price 81,933.77
81,840–82,540 range with Asian lower highs; false break to 81,597 reclaimed.
BTC flushed to 79,737 after the hot US PPI print, then reversed into an 82,539 NY high as the USD faded the data, and has since held an 81,840–82,540 range. Asia printed a lower high at 82,334 under the 82,429 asian high. The Warsh-time false break to the 81,597 asian low was reclaimed. Price sits below EMA20 near 81,930 late in the Asia session ahead of London open, with RSI(14) at 48.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,840 range low exposes the 81,597 asian low and the 38.2% NY rally fib near 81,469
Close above the 82,334 lower high and the 82,429 asian high breaks the Asian lower-highs line; the 82,539 ny high caps the range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift USD/yields and this read
06:03 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI V-reversal · RSI 50 · price 82,087.60
Range 81840–82540 since NY afternoon, lower highs in Asia.
The flush to 79,737 on yesterday's hot PPI reversed into an 81,840–82,540 range that has held since. During the Warsh speech hour, price dipped below the range floor to the 81,597 asian low and was absorbed back inside, a false break. Late in the Asia session, price sits mid-range near 82,090, capped by lower highs at the 82,429 asian high and 82,334, with RSI(14) flat at 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,840 range floor reopens the 81,597 asian low and the 38.2% post-PPI rally retrace near 81,470
Close above the 82,334 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; the 82,539 range top is the next cap
London open is the first test of the range edges after a quiet Asia session
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift USD and yields enough to break the range
The hot-PPI flush to 79,737 was fully retraced, and BTC has since held a 81,840–82,540 range, with the range top capping twice. Late Asia session: the dip to the 81,597 Asian low around Warsh's 03:30 UTC speech was reclaimed within a bar. Price now sits mid-range under a lower-high line from the 82,429 Asian high, just below both EMAs, with RSI flat near 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,334 lower high breaks the descending line from the Asian high and exposes the 82,540 range top
Acceptance below the 81,840 range low and the 81,597 Asian low turns the false break into a range break lower
London open in ~1h may set the session range away from the Asian range midpoint
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
05:32 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI V-recovery · RSI 51 · price 82,116.57
14h range 81840–82540, Asia dip below range low reclaimed.
The US PPI/retail sales release sent BTC to 79737 before a V-recovery to the 82540 range top as the dollar spike faded, and price has held 81840–82540 since. In the Asia session, a dip around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks to the asia low at 81597 was reclaimed back inside the range. Late Asia now sits mid-range, capped below the 82334 swing high, with RSI flat near 51.
Support: 81,840.00, 81,597.00
Resistance: 82,334.00, 82,429.00, 82,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 81840 range low turns the Asia dip from a false break into a range break
Failure to hold the 81597 asia low exposes the 38.2% of the PPI rally fib near 81470
Clearance of the 82334 swing high and the 82429 asian high brings the 82540 range top back into play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and Fed-speak from the IMF meetings could materially shift this read via USD and yields
05:16 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI V-reversal · RSI 57 · price 82,216.46
81,840–82,540 range, Asian low swept and reclaimed.
The post-PPI rally from 79,737 to 82,539 came as the dollar faded the hot print, and price has ranged below that range top since. The Asian session swept to 81,597 around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks and was reclaimed. Late in the Asia session, ahead of London open, price is back above the 81,938 swing low and under the 82,430 asian high, with RSI(14) at a neutral 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,540 range top invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 81,938 swing low puts the 81,597 asian low back in play
A break of the 81,597 asian low exposes the 50% retracement of the post-PPI rally near 81,140
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
05:05 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI V-reversal · RSI 54 · price 82,175.50
81600–82540 range, highs edging lower, late Asia session.
The hot US PPI print triggered a flush to 79737, then a V-reversal to the 82539 range high, and price has ranged below it since with lower highs. Asia dipped to an asian low of 81597 around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks, a false break below the range floor that was quickly reclaimed. Price is now lifting off the 81900 swing low toward the 82429 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 81,900.00, 81,597.00
Resistance: 82,429.00, 82,539.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82539 range high breaks the lower-highs line and the range read
Failure to hold the 81900 swing low reopens the 81597 asian low
Rejection at the 82429 asian high keeps the lower-highs sequence intact into London open
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Range 81840–82540 after post-PPI V-reversal; Asia lower highs.
BTC has ranged between the 81840 NY swing low and the 82539 NY high since the post-PPI rally off 79737, which came as the USD faded the hot data. Late Asia shows lower highs from the 82429 Asia high, and a false break to the 81597 Asia low around Warsh's 03:30 UTC speech was bought back. RSI(14) sits at 45 with price below EMA20 and EMA50 ahead of London open.
Support: 81,597.14
Resistance: 82,429.22, 82,539.10
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81840 ny swing low reopens the 81597 asia low, then the 38.2% of the post-PPI rally near 81470
Close above the lower highs cap at 82143 breaks the Asia trendline and returns price toward the 82429 asia high
Acceptance above the 82539 ny high invalidates the range read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
04:31 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI recovery, Asia printing lower highs · RSI 41 · price 81,996.70
81850–82540 range since NY afternoon; lower-high chain in Asia, floor briefly pierced.
The PPI-driven flush to 79737 was fully reversed into an 81850–82540 range during NY, aided by a softer USD. Late in the Asia session, price has stacked lower highs from the 82430 Asian high. The dip to the 81597 Asian low around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks briefly broke the range floor and was bought back, leaving price below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 81,850.00, 81,597.00
Resistance: 82,145.00, 82,430.00, 82,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 81850 range floor (also the 23.6% fib of the post-PPI rally) turns the 03:30 dip from a false break into a range break
Failure to hold the 81597 Asian low confirms a lower-low below the range
Reclaim of the 82145 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain; a push through the 82430 Asian high puts the 82540 range top back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
04:17 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI reversal, Asia drifting lower · RSI 46 · price 81,908.80
81840–82540 range since NY; lower highs through Asia.
BTC has held an 81840–82540 range since the early-NY reversal off 79737 after the hot PPI print, with Asia carving lower highs off the 82429 Asia high along the Asia trendline. The 03:30 UTC dip during Warsh's remarks to 81597 was rejected within the bar, but the bounce stalled at the 82103 lower high. Price sits near the 23.6% post-PPI fib, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 81,841.00, 81,597.00, 81,469.00
Resistance: 82,103.00, 82,429.00, 82,539.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81841 swing low, then the 81597 Warsh low, breaks the range floor and exposes the 38.2% fib at 81469
Close above the 82103 lower high breaks the Asia trendline; the 82429 Asia high and the 82539 range high sit above
London open is due shortly, and Warsh speech fallout could still extend the session range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, Asia drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 81,935.77
81,840–82,539 range, lower highs through Asia.
The hot-PPI flush to 79,737 reversed into a NY rally that has since boxed into an 81,840–82,539 range. Late Asia session shows lower highs from 82,429, and the 03:30 UTC bar timed with Warsh's speech swept to 81,597 before buyers lifted it back above the swing low. Price sits just under the 82,102 lower high with RSI(14) at 40 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,840 swing low reopens the 81,597 Warsh low and the 38.2% NY rally retracement near 81,470
Close above the 82,102 lower high breaks the Asian lower-highs line and brings the 82,429 asian high and the 82,539 day high back into view
Digestion of Warsh's remarks into London open, then US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, could shift the range read
03:48 UTC
Range after post-data V-reversal, Asia drifting lower · RSI 38 · price 81,878.83
81,840–82,540 range since NY; Asia lower highs, floor swept.
The flush to 79,737 after the hot US PPI reversed into an 81,840–82,540 range through NY. Asia printed lower highs from the 82,429 asian high, and the 03:30 UTC bar, as Warsh's speech window opened, swept the range floor to 81,597. Price is back at 81,879, on the 23.6% level of the post-data rally fib, with RSI(14) near 38.
What it said to watch
Close back below the range floor at 81,840 and through the 81,597 sweep low confirms a range break lower, exposing the 38.2% post-data rally fib near 81,470
Recovery above the 82,115 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs trendline
82,429 asian high and 82,539 range high remain the cap on the range
Warsh remarks and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Range after NY reversal, Asia drifting lower · RSI 37 · price 81,902.80
Lower highs through Asia, testing range floor.
The hot US PPI and retail print flushed BTC to 79,737 in the first hour of NY, then falling yields drove a reversal into the 82,539 prior high. Price has held an 81,840–82,540 range since. The Asian session is printing lower highs from the 82,429 asia high and now sits on the 81,900 session low, just above the 81,840 swing low, with RSI(14) near 37.
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh is speaking now (03:30 UTC) and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 81,840 swing low breaks the range floor and opens the fib 38.2 of the NY rally at 81,469
M15 close above the 82,115 lower high invalidates the Asia lower-high sequence and puts the 82,429 asia high back in play
Acceptance above the 82,539 prior high would mark a range break higher
Range 81,840–82,540 for ~10h; lower highs compressing price into the Asian range.
BTC flushed to 79,737 at 13:45 UTC after the hot PPI print, then reversed sharply as USD faded on falling yields. Price has since held a 81,840–82,540 range with lower highs. Late Asia is compressing inside the 81,900–82,430 Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price just under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read and break the Asian range
M15 close below the 81,900 asian low and 81,840 range low, near the 23.6% fib of the post-PPI rally, exposes the 38.2% retrace around 81,470
Close above the 82,430 asian high and the lower-highs line reopens the 82,540 range high
03:03 UTC
Range after post-data reversal, lower highs forming · RSI 43 · price 81,935.77
81,840–82,540 range since the NY rally; four successive lower highs; price probing the Asian low.
The post-PPI flush to 79,737 in NY hours reversed into a rally to the 82,540 range top. Since then a series of lower highs has capped price, the latest a rejection at the 82,430 Asian high. Late in the Asia session, price is pressing the 81,900 Asian low, with RSI(14) at 43, ahead of Warsh at 03:30 UTC.
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 81,840 range low exposes the 38.2% fib of the rally near 81,470
A close above the lower-highs line and the 82,430 Asian high reopens the 82,540 range top
81840–82540 range since the NY reversal; lower highs into Asia, price at the Asian low.
The hot US PPI and retail data in the first hour of NY knocked BTC to 79737. Falling yields then drove a full reversal leg to 82521, and price has since held an 81840–82540 range. Highs are stepping lower along the lower-high trendline: 82539 was rejected first, then 82489 and 82482, and the Asian high at 82429 was rejected back to 82085. Price at 82080 sits just under the ema20 near 82145 and is testing the Asian low at 81958, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 81,469.00
Resistance: 82,145.00, 82,429.22, 82,539.10
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 81840 range low ends the post-reversal range and exposes the fib 38.2 of the reversal leg near 81469
Close above the asian high at 82429 and the lower-high trendline, then the 82540 range high, negates the descending-highs read
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 82145 keeps price pinned to the asian low
81,840–82,540 range since NY afternoon; price testing the Asia session low.
The hot US PPI print triggered a flush to 79,737 during NY hours, then a sharp reversal built a 81,840–82,540 range that has held since. Range highs have stepped lower to 82,430, the Asia high. Price now sits at the Asia low near 81,970, just above the range low and the rebound fib's 23.6% at ~81,880, with RSI(14) at 43 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,840 range low breaks the post-PPI range and exposes the rebound fib 38.2% near 81,470
Close above the lower highs line and the 82,430 Asia high reopens the 82,540 range high
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~1h); a high-impact event that could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Sideways after post-PPI recovery · RSI 44 · price 82,087.60
Range 81,841–82,539, lower highs in Asia.
Yesterday's hot PPI flushed BTC to 79,737 at the NY open, then falling yields drove a full recovery to the 82,539 range high. Since then BTC has held a 81,841–82,539 range, with lower highs along the lower-highs line. Asia saw a rejection at the 82,429 Asian high and is trading just above the 81,968 Asian low, RSI(14) near 44 ahead of Warsh.
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could force a break of the 81,841–82,539 range
M15 close below the 81,841 range low ends the range read and puts the 23.6% retrace of the post-PPI leg in play
Close above the 82,429 Asian high and the 82,539 range high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 81,968 Asian low shifts focus to the range low
02:04 UTC
Range after post-PPI V-reversal, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 36 · price 81,991.70
81840–82540 range since late NY; Asian lower highs pressing the range floor.
The hot US PPI print flushed BTC to 79737 early in NY hours. The drop then reversed in full into an 81840–82540 range, with the range high at 82539 set late in NY. Asia rejected 82429 at the Asian high, broke the 82043 prior low and is now sitting on the Asian low near 81980, with RSI(14) at 36, price below EMA20 and holding just above EMA50.
Resistance: 82,043.00, 82,429.00, 82,539.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81840 range low exits the range and exposes the 38.2% fib of the post-PPI rally near 81470
Reclaim of 82043 prior low plus a break of the Asian lower highs trendline neutralises the Asian-session drift
Close above the 82539 range high breaks the range to the upside
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Range after post-PPI rally, highs edging lower · RSI 39 · price 82,067.62
81,840–82,540 range since mid-NY; lower highs, price on Asian low.
The hot US PPI flushed BTC to 79,737 early in NY, then the post-PPI rally ran to 82,539 as the USD faded on falling yields. Since then a 81,840 range low to 82,540 range top has held through NY afternoon and Asia, with lower highs forming. The Asian high at 82,430 was rejected at 01:15 UTC and price now sits on the Asian low near 82,045, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 39.
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, about 1h45m away; a high-impact risk to the range read
M15 close below the Asian low at 82,045 exposes the 81,840 range low
Failure to hold 81,840 breaks the range and puts the post-PPI rally's deeper fib retracement in play
M15 close above the 82,540 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence
01:32 UTC
Range after post-PPI V-reversal, momentum neutral · RSI 45 · price 82,109.58
10h range 81840–82540 with marginally lower highs.
The hot US PPI print sent BTC to 79,737 at the NY open before a sharp reversal. Price has since ranged between the 81,841 range low and the 82,539 range high for about ten hours, with a lower-highs line capping. Early in the Asia session it printed a rejection at 82,429 and closed back near 82,100. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 44.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 82,044 swing low puts the 81,841 range low back in play.
An M15 close below the 81,841 range low exposes the 38.2% retrace of the post-PPI rally near 81,470.
A close above the 82,539 range high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range read.
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~2h); a hike signal or a dovish look-through could break the range.
01:17 UTC
Post-PPI V-reversal, now compressing · RSI 53 · price 82,340.32
Lower highs and higher lows forming a pennant under 82,540.
BTC dropped to 79,737 after the hot US PPI, then reversed sharply as USD faded the data. Since then it has compressed into a pennant below the 82,540 range top, with higher lows from the 81,841 range low. Asia session is holding a tight 82,044–82,365 band, price pressing the Asia high with RSI(14) near 53.
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~2h) and is the likely catalyst for a pennant break
M15 close above the 82,540 range top clears the pennant top and the post-PPI high
Loss of the 82,044 Asia low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 81,841 range low
Failure at 81,841 shifts focus to the 38.2% post-PPI fib near 81,470
01:06 UTC
Range after V-shaped recovery, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 82,246.42
81840–82540 range compressing: lower highs, higher lows.
The NY flush to 79737 after the hot US PPI print reversed sharply as USD faded the data. Price has since compressed inside an 81840–82540 range, with a lower high at 82482 under the 82539 range high and higher lows at the 81840 range low and the 82043 swing low. Asia is holding a tight band between the 82115 session low and the 82365 session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 ahead of Warsh.
Resistance: 82,365.29, 82,482.16, 82,539.10
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~2.5h). A hawkish hike signal or a patient tone could break the compression either way.
An M15 close above the 82365 session high and the lower-highs line opens 82482, then the 82539 range high.
Failure to hold the 82115 session low and the 82043 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 81840 range low.
00:47 UTC
Range after post-PPI reversal, momentum neutral · RSI 51 · price 82,221.45
81,841–82,539 range, lower highs vs higher lows compressing.
The flush to 79,737 right after the hot PPI print (12:45 UTC) reversed sharply as USD faded on lower yields. The rally stalled at the 82,539 range top, and price has held a 81,841–82,539 range since, compressing between lower highs and higher lows. Early Asia session is contained below the 82,365 asian high, with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) flat at 51.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82,539 range top breaks the range read
Loss of the 82,043 swing low exposes the 81,841 range floor, which sits near the 23.6% fib of the post-PPI rally
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, about 2h45m out, and could materially shift this read
A break of either the lower highs or higher lows trendline resolves the compression
00:32 UTC
Post-NY rally, now range-bound · RSI 58 · price 82,300.36
81,840–82,540 range for ~8h with rising lows inside it.
The hot US PPI print drove a flush to 79,737 during NY hours. Price then reversed into a rally to 82,539 and has held an 81,840–82,540 range since. The 21:15 UTC dip to the range low undercut the prior low near the 23.6% fib and recovered. Early Asia trade is coiling above the 82,045 swing low with rising lows, and RSI(14) is near 58 ahead of the Warsh speech.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82,540 range high would break the post-NY range. The 82,482 lower high is the first cap.
Losing the 82,045 swing low would break the rising-lows line and expose the 81,840 range low.
A close below the 81,840 range low would open the 38.2% fib near 81,470.
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~3h) and could materially shift this read.
00:17 UTC
Sideways after NY-session V-reversal · RSI 55 · price 82,245.43
81,840–82,540 range holding ~8h, slight lower highs at the top.
Hot US PPI flushed BTC to 79,737 early in NY hours. Price then reversed to a range high at 82,539 as Treasury yields fell, and has held 81,840–82,540 since, with a lower high at 82,482. Asia session opens at 82,245, above the 82,044 swing low, with RSI(14) mid-range near 55 and ATR around $150 per bar.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,840 range low (near the 23.6% fib of the NY rally) breaks the range and exposes the 38.2% fib near 81,470
Close above the 82,539 range high clears the lower highs and reopens the NY-session advance
Loss of the 82,044 swing low puts the range low back in play
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Post-data V-reversal, now sideways · RSI 45 · price 82,140.54
8-hour range 81,840–82,540 after reclaiming the post-PPI low.
After the hot US PPI print, BTC swept the 80,165 Asia low to 79,737 and then reversed sharply as USD faded on falling yields. It has held an 81,840–82,540 range since mid-NY, with the range low staying above the 23.6% of the post-PPI rally. Price opens the Asia session mid-range near 82,140, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) at 45 and the 22:15 UTC swing high at 82,480 capping the latest push.
What it said to watch
Close below the 81,840 range low exposes the 38.2% of the post-PPI rally near 81,470
Close above the 82,540 range high ends the range read
Loss of the 82,044 swing low puts the range low back in focus
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~3.5h), which could materially shift this read