81,840–82,540 range after NY V-reversal, slightly lower highs.
NY swept below the Asian low to 79,737 around the hot US PPI and retail-sales prints, then reversed hard through the Asian high at 81,831 to top at the 82,539 range top. Since then an 81,840–82,540 range has held, with the latest lower high at 82,482. Price is sitting on the late low at 82,043, below EMA20, with RSI(14) at 43.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,840 range low exposes the Asian high at 81,831 and the fib 38.2 level near 81,469
M15 close above the 82,540 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and invalidates the range read
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~4h) and could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Range-bound after sharp NY rally · RSI 49 · price 82,118.57
81,840–82,540 range since NY afternoon, flat highs.
BTC reversed from the 79,737 NY-open low to 82,539 as Treasury yields fell despite the hot PPI, and has held a 81,840–82,540 range since. The late-NY push was rejected at a lower high near 82,482, and price is now back at the 82,043 swing low in thin early Asia trade, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,539 day high breaks the range top
Loss of the 81,841 range low exposes the 81,503 london high, near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~4h, Asia session) and could materially shift this read
8h range 81,840–82,540 after V-reversal from 79,737.
The flush to 79,737 after the hot 12:30 UTC PPI print reversed sharply in the NY session as yields fell and USD faded, lifting BTC to the 82,540 range high. Price has since held an 81,840–82,540 range low/high band for eight hours. A late-NY rejection from a lower high at 82,482 has it back near the 81,960 hl cluster, with RSI(14) neutral at 43 and price below EMA20.
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~4h, Asia session) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 81,840 range low exposes the rally fib 38.2% near 81,470
Failure to hold the 81,960 hl cluster tilts the range toward its low
Close above the 82,540 range high breaks the lower high sequence capping late-NY
23:04 UTC
Post-data rebound, now flat in a range · RSI 50 · price 82,309.36
7h range 81840–82540 after V-reversal; highs flat, lows unbroken.
The hot 12:30 UTC US data batch drove a sweep of the Asian low at 80165 into 79737. Price then reversed through the Asian high to a day high near 82540. Since then the 81840–82540 range has held through NY hours, with the range high capping three times, and RSI(14) near 50 and price hugging ema20 as the session thins after NY close.
Support: 81,840.00, 81,470.00
Resistance: 82,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82540 range high clears the day high and ends the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 81840 range low, which sits on the old Asian high, opens a deeper retrace toward the fib 38.2 at 81470
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Recovered from post-data low, ranging under session high · RSI 52 · price 82,398.26
81840–82539 range after V-reversal, higher lows into the top.
BTC fell to 79737 in the hour after the 12:30 UTC US data dump, then reversed as yields fell and the USD faded the hot PPI, rallying to an 82539 session high. Late NY has held a 81840–82539 range. Price is just under the session high after a higher low at 82117, and the pullback to the swing low retraced only about a quarter of the rally fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Resistance: 82,539.10, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82539 session high breaks the range and opens the 83000 round number
Loss of the 82117 higher low puts the 81840 swing low back in play; a break there undercuts the range
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4.75h, Asia session) could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Range after V-shaped intraday recovery · RSI 55 · price 82,402.25
81,840–82,540 range, higher lows pressing range top.
BTC reversed from the 79,737 post-PPI rally base to a 82,539 session high during NY hours, then capped repeatedly at 82,480–82,540. After NY close it has ranged 81,840–82,540, with a higher low at 82,283 now pushing back into the range top. RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s, not extreme.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,540 session high breaks the range top
Loss of the 82,283 higher low puts the 81,840 range low back in play
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC (~5h away) could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Sideways after post-data V-reversal · RSI 54 · price 82,361.30
81840–82539 range capping the rally off the 79737 low.
The hot US PPI and retail sales prints at 12:30 UTC pushed BTC through the Asian low at 80165 to 79737. Falling yields then drove a V-reversal to 82539 within about three hours. Since then the NY session has held a 81840–82539 range: the 21:15 UTC dip to the range floor, near the 23.6% fib of the post-PPI rally, recovered to a higher low at 82118 and price sits at 82360 with RSI(14) neutral around 54.
Support: 82,118.00
Resistance: 82,466.00, 82,539.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81840 range floor exposes the 38.2% post-PPI rally fib near 81470
A close above the 82466 late high and 82539 range top ends the range read
Loss of the 82118 higher low would turn the late push into a lower high under 82466
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~5h, Asia session) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
22:03 UTC
Recovering intraday, now ranging below session high · RSI 56 · price 82,375.28
Post-NY V-reversal, 81,841–82,539 range since 15:30 UTC.
BTC slipped below the Asian low after the hot US PPI print and bottomed at 79,737 in the first hour of NY. It then reversed through the Asian range high as yields fell and the USD faded the data. Since 15:30 UTC price has held a range between the 81,841 range low and the 82,539 session high. Late in NY trade it sits back above the 82,000 psych level, with the 23.6% fib intact and RSI(14) neutral near 56.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,539 session high breaks the range top. The 82,489 lower high is the first cap.
Failure to hold the 81,841 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 81,469.
A drop back below the 82,000 psych level keeps price inside the range.
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read.
81840–82540 range after NY reversal; lower highs forming.
The hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC to a 79737 session low. A sharp NY reversal followed as yields fell, clearing the Asian range high near 81830 and capping at the 82540 range top. Since then price has held an 81840–82540 range, with the range floor defended twice and a lower high at 82338. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and price sits just under EMA20 in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 81,840.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,338.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81840 range floor (near the 23.6% of the NY rally fib) exposes the 38.2% near 81470
M15 close above the 82338 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 82540 range top back in play
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Range after V-shaped recovery, momentum flat · RSI 57 · price 82,223.45
81,840–82,540 range, lower highs off the double top.
The hot PPI release at 12:30 UTC extended the selloff to 79,737, a sweep of the Asian-session low near 80,165. Falling yields then drove a V-shaped rally to a double top at 82,521–82,539. Since then price has held a range with lower highs into late NY hours, buyers defending the 81,840 range low twice, with RSI(14) at 57 and price back above EMA20 near 82,130.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,840 range low confirms the double top and exposes the fib 38.2 near 81,470
Close above the 82,340 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 82,540 double top
Close above 82,540 invalidates the double top and the range read
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Range 81840–82540 since 15:45 UTC, highs edging lower.
The hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC to 79737. A sharp V-reversal through the NY session then reclaimed the Asian high near 81830 and ran to an 82540 session high. Since 15:45 UTC price has held a range of 81840–82540 with a rejection at the top and a lower high at 82340, and the 20:45 UTC drop around Hammack's remarks held the range low; RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 81,840.00, 81,470.00
Resistance: 82,340.00, 82,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81840 range low exposes the fib 38.2 retracement of the post-PPI rally near 81470
Close above the 82540 session high ends the range read; failure at the 82340 lower high keeps highs stepping down
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~6h); his hike-versus-pause language could materially shift this read
21:07 UTC
Post-data V-recovery, now stalling · RSI 40 · price 81,939.76
Range 81840–82540 since 15:00 UTC, lower high at 82490.
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print drove a sweep below 80000 to 79737. A sharp NY rally then capped at the 82540 session high, and a lower high at 82490 followed. Late NY, price has slipped back below EMA20 to test the 81840 range low, which sits just above the Asian range high; RSI(14) sits near 40.
Support: 81,840.00, 81,470.00, 81,140.00
Resistance: 82,490.00, 82,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81840 range low completes the double top and exposes the 38.2% fib at 81470, then the 50% fib at 81140
Close back above the 82490 lower high and 82540 session high invalidates the topping read
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Recovered from post-data flush, now compressing · RSI 56 · price 82,273.39
Pennant below 82540 session high, higher lows vs lower highs.
The hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC flushed BTC through the Asian low to 79737, but the dip reversed fully as Treasury yields fell and the USD faded, carrying price to the 82540 session high. Late in the NY session price is compressing between a higher low at 82165 and a lower high at 82490, with the range low at 81855 sitting on the 23.6% retrace of the NY rally. RSI(14) is near 56, neutral.
Support: 82,165.00, 81,855.00
Resistance: 82,490.00, 82,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82540 session high breaks the pennant and extends the NY rally
Loss of the 82165 higher low breaks the higher-lows line. Below the 81855 range low, the 38.2% retrace near 81470 comes into play
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~6.75h), a high-impact catalyst that could materially shift this read
20:33 UTC
Post-data V-recovery, now compressing · RSI 58 · price 82,272.40
Pennant below 82,539 session high after reclaiming overnight range.
Hot PPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC to 79,737. The dollar then reversed on falling yields, and the post-PPI rally ran through the 81,880 overnight high to a 82,539 session high. Late NY session is compressing into a pennant, with a lower high at 82,489 and higher lows at 81,855, 81,994 and 82,165; RSI(14) is neutral near 58.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,539 session high and the 82,489 lower high breaks the pennant top
Close below the 82,165 swing low, then the 81,855 range low, unwinds the pennant base and exposes the 50% retracement of the post-PPI rally near 81,140
Hammack (20:30 UTC, under way) and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Uptrend off the NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 82,223.45
Post-rally consolidation 81990–82540, lower high under session high.
The hot PPI print drove an early-NY sweep of the Asian low at 80165 down to 79737. Price then reversed as the dollar faded the data on falling yields, clearing the Asian range high at 81831 and printing a session high at 82539. Late NY is compressing between the 81994 higher low and a lower high at 82489, with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 81,993.70, 81,854.86
Resistance: 82,489.16, 82,539.10
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81994 higher low breaks the compression and exposes the 81855 swing low
Close above the 82539 session high reopens the rally leg; the 82489 lower high caps first
A break of the rising higher-low line shifts the read to a deeper fib retracement toward 81470 (38.2%)
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows coiling beneath the 82,539 session high.
The hot 12:30 UTC US PPI print sent BTC to a 79,737 low. A sharp V-reversal then broke the 81,831 Asian high and tagged the 82,539 session high. Into late NY, price is coiling between the 81,994 swing low and the session high on higher lows, with RSI(14) around 58 and EMA20 just below price.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,489 lower high and 82,539 session high breaks the consolidation to the upside
Failure to hold the 81,994 swing low and the 81,855 pullback low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 81,831 Asian high
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A retracement deeper than 38.2% of the post-PPI rally (~81,470) would undercut the reversal structure
19:47 UTC
Post-sweep rebound, now consolidating near highs · RSI 60 · price 82,325.34
Flat top at 82,540 with higher lows at 81,855 and 81,994.
The hot 12:30 UTC US PPI print drove a sweep below the Asian low to 79,737. NY then reversed it hard, reclaiming the Asian high near 81,830 as falling Treasury yields weighed on USD. Since 15:30 UTC price has compressed under the 82,540 session high, with higher lows at the 81,855 swing low and 81,994; RSI(14) is near 60.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,540 session high breaks the consolidation top and opens the 83,000 round number
Loss of the 81,994 higher low, then the 81,855 swing low, ends the higher-low sequence and puts the fib 38.2 at 81,469 in play
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 13:45 UTC low, consolidating below NY high.
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print sent BTC through the Asia low to 79,737, which was swept before a sharp NY reversal cleared the Asian range high. Late in the NY session, price is consolidating under the 82,539 NY high, with a higher low at 81,994 above the 16:30 UTC swing low at 81,855 and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,539 NY high breaks the consolidation and opens the 83,000 round number
Failure to hold the 81,994 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 81,855 swing low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read after the hot PPI
19:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 63 · price 82,364.29
Post-PPI V-reversal; 82,000–82,540 consolidation with higher lows.
The hot PPI and retail sales release at 12:30 UTC drove BTC through the Asian low to 79,737. Price then reversed sharply as the USD's gains faded and broke above the 81,831 Asian high. NY session has since capped twice near the 82,540 session high, while higher lows at the 81,855 swing low and the 81,994 pullback low hold above the 23.6% of the post-PPI swing. Late in NY, RSI(14) is around 62.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,540 session high breaks the double cap and opens the 83,000 round number
Loss of the 81,994 pullback low and the higher-lows line exposes the 81,855 swing low and the 81,831 Asian high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read in thin overnight trade
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail beat drove a sweep to 79737. Price then reversed about 2800 points, cleared the Asian high at 81831 and the post-data leg's 23.6% retracement held. NY session is capped twice at the 82520–82540 session high, with higher lows at the 81855 swing low and 82028 and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 82,027.67, 81,854.86, 81,830.88
Resistance: 82,539.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82539 session high opens the 83000 round number
Break below the 82028 higher low ends the higher-lows sequence and puts the 81855 swing low in play
Loss of the 81831 asian high returns price to the pre-data range
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read in thin late-NY/Asia liquidity
V-reversal from post-PPI sweep, higher lows, twin highs at 82520–82540.
The post-PPI selloff swept the Asian low near 80165 down to 79737, then reversed sharply in NY as USD gave back its data gains on falling yields. Late NY, price is consolidating below the 82520–82540 session high, with a higher low at 81855 and a pullback low at 82030 holding.
Support: 82,030.00, 81,855.00
Resistance: 82,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82540 session high extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81855 higher low turns the twin highs into a double top and exposes the 38.2% fib near 81470
Loss of the 82030 pullback low breaks the rising higher-lows line
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC (~2h) and Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the hot PPI
18:34 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling under session high · RSI 58 · price 82,139.54
Post-PPI false break below the Asian low, then a V-recovery; ranging 81855–82539 since 15:30 UTC.
The hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC pushed price through the Asian low to 79737. The break failed as the dollar faded on falling yields, and the post-PPI rally reached 82521–82539, where twin highs are now capping. After London close, price is holding the 81994 pullback low inside an 81855–82539 range with RSI(14) near 58. The range low sits close to the 23.6% retracement of the rally.
Support: 81,994.00, 81,855.00
Resistance: 82,539.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81855 range low turns the twin highs into a double top and opens the 38.2% retracement near 81470
M15 close above the 82539 session high extends the post-PPI rally
A break of the 81994 pullback low puts the range low back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 59 · price 82,093.59
V-reversal from 79,737 sweep, twin highs 82,521/82,539 over 81,855 swing low.
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print drove a sweep below 80,000 to 79,737. Price then reversed sharply as USD faded on falling yields, clearing the asian high at 81,830 and topping at the 82,539 session high. Late in the NY session, price is easing back toward the 82,000 psych after a second rejection at the highs, leaving an unconfirmed double top over the 81,855 swing low, with RSI(14) near 59.
What it said to watch
Close below the 81,855 swing low confirms the double top and puts the 38.2% fib of the 79.7k–82.5k rally near 81,470 in play
Holding the 82,000 psych, then a close above the 82,539 session high, opens the 83,000 round number
Loss of the 81,830 asian high would return price to its prior range
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Higher low at 81855, testing the 82539 session high.
The hot PPI release drove a flush that swept below the Asian low at 80165 to 79737 at 13:45 UTC. Price then reversed about 2,800 through the prior high at 81911 during NY hours as USD faded the data. It now sits late in the NY session just under the 82539 session high, with a higher low at 81855 and a pivot low at 82224 below; RSI(14) near 67 is cooling.
Support: 82,224.45, 81,910.79, 81,854.86
Resistance: 82,539.10, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82539 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 83000 round number
Loss of the 82224 pivot low and the 81911 prior high brings the 81855 higher low (near the 23.6% fib of the post-PPI reversal) into play
A break below the 81855 higher low undoes the post-PPI reversal structure
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and the Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 66 · price 82,385.27
HH/HL chain since the 79,737 sweep low; higher low 81,855, marginal higher high 82,539.
The post-PPI drop swept the Asian low to 79,737 before reversing as USD faded on lower yields. The post-PPI rally cleared the Asian high and the prior high near 81,910, and price is now holding just under the 82,520–82,539 session high late in NY hours with RSI(14) at 66.
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,539 session high extends the HH chain toward the 83,000 round number
A break below the 81,855 higher low ends the HL sequence and exposes the 81,470 fib 38.2 of the post-PPI rally
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read via yields and USD
HH/HL chain off PPI low; tight range under 82,540.
The 12:30 UTC PPI beat swept BTC through the Asian low to the 79,737 PPI low. A fading USD and lower yields then drove a ~2,800 reversal through the prior-day high at 81,911. After London close, price is consolidating just under the 82,521–82,539 session high, with the 81,960 shelf and the 81,855 swing low holding the higher-low structure. RSI(14) is near 64, not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,539 session high extends the HH chain toward the 83,000 round number
Second stall at 82,520–82,540 followed by a break of the 81,855 swing low would mark a lower high and expose the 38.2% fib of the PPI-low rally near 81,470
Hold of the 81,960 shelf keeps the post-PPI higher-low structure intact
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend after a post-PPI reversal · RSI 66 · price 82,194.48
V-reversal from the PPI low, breakout above the Asian range, higher low at 81855.
The hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC pushed BTC through the Asian low to a 79,737 PPI low. The move then reversed sharply as the USD faded with yields, carrying price through the Asian high to an 82,521 session high. After London close the pullback held 81,855 (pullback low), just above the Asian high, a roughly 24% retrace, with RSI(14) near 66.
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close back below the 81,855 pullback low and the 81,831 Asian high would put price back inside the prior range.
A close above the 82,521 session high would extend the higher-high chain toward the 83,000 round number.
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
A return toward the 79,737 PPI low would negate the reversal structure.
17:05 UTC
Sharp NY reversal higher, now pausing · RSI 60 · price 82,022.67
V-reversal off swept low, holding above Asian high.
The hot PPI dip at 12:30 UTC swept below the 80,165 Asian low to 79,737. Price then reversed sharply as the USD faded and yields eased, breaking the Asian high and printing a session high at 82,521. After London close the pullback low at 81,855 is holding above the Asian high retest, near the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooled to ~60.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 81,831 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
A break of the 81,855 pullback low exposes the ema20 near 81,660 and the 38.2% fib at ~81,458
M15 close above the 82,446 lower high and the 82,521 session high resumes the NY rally structure
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Higher low at 81,855 below the 82,521 session high.
The hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC swept the Asian low to a 79,737 session low. NY then reversed sharply, clearing the Asian high near 81,831 and running to 82,521. The pullback after London close held the 81,855 pullback low at the 23.6% fib, and price is now compressing beneath the 82,446 lower high with RSI(14) near 62.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,855 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib near 81,460 and the 81,503 london high
Close above the 82,446 lower high and 82,521 session high extends the NY reversal leg
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Sharp NY reversal higher, now pulling back · RSI 64 · price 82,069.62
V-reversal from 79,737 low; breakout above Asian high, retesting prior high.
The hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC drove a sweep below the Asian low and 80,000 to 79,737. The NY rally then broke through the 81,831 Asian high and the 82,065 prior high to an 82,521 session high. The latest pullback from a lower high at 82,446 has dipped to an 81,970 pullback low and is retesting the prior high, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-60s.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 81,970 pullback low and the 81,831 Asian high would undo the breakout read
Recovery above the 82,446 lower high and the 82,521 session high would resume the higher-high chain
A deeper retrace toward the 38.2% of the NY rally near 81,457 would signal fading reversal momentum
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Swept Asian low, broke Asian high and prior high; tight consolidation below session high.
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print knocked BTC to 79,737 at 13:45 UTC, sweeping below the Asian low at 80,165. Price then reversed hard as the USD faded, clearing the asian high at 81,831 and the prior high at 82,066. The NY session is now compressing in a roughly 82,120–82,520 band under the session high, with RSI(14) cooling near 69 after the ppi rebound leg.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82,066 prior high would put the breakout at risk and expose the asian high at 81,831
Acceptance above the 82,521 session high opens the 83,000 psych level
A drop through the 38.2% retrace of the ppi rebound near 81,458 would undercut the reversal read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
V-reversal from the post-PPI low; higher highs through the prior high, now coiling under the session high.
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print flushed BTC to 79737, sweeping the Asian low at 80164. Price then reversed hard during NY hours as US yields pulled back and the USD faded, clearing the asian high and the prior high at 82065 before printing a session high at 82521. The 15:15 UTC bar retested 82065 and held, and the last three bars are coiling just below 82521 after London close with RSI(14) near 67.
Resistance: 82,521.12, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the prior high at 82065 returns price to the old range and brings the asian high at 81830 into focus
Deeper fade toward the 38.2% retracement of the PPI swing near 81460 would put the reversal leg in question
Close above the session high at 82521 extends the higher-high chain toward the 83000 round number
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Sweep of lows, then break above Asian range and prior high.
The hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC sent BTC below the Asian low to 79,737. Price then reversed hard as Treasury yields eased and the dollar faded. The post-PPI rally reclaimed the Asian high at 81,830 and the prior high at 82,065, then set a session high at 82,521 before the first pause late in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 66.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 82,065 prior high puts the breakout in doubt and exposes 81,830 asian high
Break above the 82,521 session high opens the 83,000 round number
Hold of the 38.2% post-PPI rally retracement near 81,460 keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-reversal from the post-PPI flush; NY rally broke the 24h range high with no lower-high printed yet.
The hot PPI at 12:30 UTC sent BTC below the Asian low at 80165 to 79737. Price then reversed hard as yields pulled back, rallying through the asian high at 81830 and the prior high at 82065 to a session high of 82310. Ranges are now compressing just under that high and RSI(14) is near 68, hot but not stretched.
Resistance: 82,310.35, 82,500.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 82065 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Session high 82310 and the 82500 round number are the area to watch for rejection or extension
Loss of the 81830 asian high opens the 38.2% level of the NY rally fib near 81330
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-reversal from 79737, breakout above Asian high and prior high.
Hot PPI at 12:30 UTC drove a flush below the Asian low at 80165 to 79737. Price reversed as yields pulled back, and NY session has since rallied about 2,500 to a session high of 82272, clearing the Asian high at 81831 and the prior high at 82066. RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched, and the first pullback reference is the 82066 breakout level.
Support: 82,066.00, 81,831.00, 81,304.00
Resistance: 82,272.00, 82,500.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 81831 (Asian high) turns the breakout into a false break
Hold of 82066 (prior high) on a pullback keeps the HH/HL chain intact; 82500 round number is next overhead above the session high
Deeper pullback into fib 38.2 at ~81304 retraces the post-PPI rally to the 14:00 spike high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-reversal from 79737 back to the Asian range top.
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print knocked BTC through the Asian low to a 79737 post-ppi low. That break failed as yields and the USD faded, and a roughly 2,200-point ppi reversal through the first hours of NY has price pressing the 81830 asian high, with the 81937 ny high capping so far. RSI(14) near 63 is firm but not stretched, and the London high at 81503 has been reclaimed.
Support: 81,503.00, 80,767.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 81,830.00, 81,937.00, 82,066.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81830 asian high and 81937 ny high opens the 82066 prior high from 14 Oct
Slip back below the 81503 london high puts the ppi reversal at risk, with the 80767 london low next
Loss of the 79737 post-ppi low restores the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
V-reversal after sweep of Asian low, now testing London high.
The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC pushed BTC through the asian low at 80,165 to a ny low of 79,737. The break failed within the hour: a 14:00 UTC rebound reclaimed the range and price is now pressing the london high at 81,503 and session high at 81,541. RSI(14) sits near 59 and ATR is around 420 USD per bar, so swings are still wide.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,541 session high exposes the 81,830 asian high
Rejection at the london high followed by a slip under the 80,878 pullback low (near the rebound fib 0.382) would unwind the reclaim
Loss of the 80,165 asian low reopens the 79,737 ny low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sweep below asian low reclaimed, price back inside london range.
The hot 12:30 UTC US PPI print pushed BTC through the asian low at 80165 to a sweep low of 79737, then the first hour of NY reversed it hard to a spike high of 81307. Price is pinned at the EMA50 near 81020 with RSI(14) neutral around 50. The post-data bounce is holding above the london low at 80767 and sits below the london high at 81503.
Support: 80,767.05, 80,164.72, 79,737.19
Resistance: 81,307.46, 81,503.24
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london low at 80767 puts the post-data bounce at risk and reopens the asian low at 80165
Acceptance above the 81307 spike high opens the london high at 81503
A break below the 79737 sweep low would confirm a lower-low after the PPI shock
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London lower highs, then a sweep of the Asian low and 80000 reclaimed.
Hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC extended the London slide. Price cut through the asian low at 80165 and the 80000 psych level to a 79737 sweep low, then a full reversal bar into early NY reclaimed the 80770 london low and tagged 81307. Price now sits around the 66% fib of the london high to sweep low drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR has expanded to roughly $390.
Support: 80,770.00, 80,165.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 81,307.00, 81,503.00, 81,831.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 80770 london low turns the reclaim into a failed reversal and reopens the asian low at 80165 and the sweep low
Close above the 81307 rebound high breaks the London lower-high sequence and puts the 81503 london high and 81831 asian high back in view
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Chair Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
The hot 12:30 UTC US PPI print pushed BTC through the 80,450–80,480 floor that had held since the Asia session flush. It extended the lower-high sequence to a session low at 79,737 in the first hour of NY. The 13:45 wick back above psych 80,000 shows dip demand, but price is still capped below the broken low near 80,460, and RSI(14) at ~35 is not yet oversold.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold psych 80,000 on a closing basis re-exposes the session low at 79,737.
A reclaim of the broken low at 80,460 and the ppi drop fib 50% (~80,400) would ease the downside read.
A close above the 81,075 lower high and the lower highs trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend sequence.
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, early rebound off the NY low · RSI 41 · price 80,606.23
Lower highs since London high; false break below the Asian low.
The hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC pushed BTC through the 80,165 Asian low to an 80,018 NY low in the first hour of NY. Price then reclaimed the Asian range, leaving a false break, and is sitting near the 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop. Lower highs from the 81,503 London high still define the structure, and RSI(14) is neutral at 41.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 80,165 Asian low negates the false break and puts the 80,018 NY low back in play
Reclaim of the 81,075 pre-PPI high and the lower-high trendline would break the sequence of lower highs, exposing the 81,503 London high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the PPI surprise
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 22 · price 80,113.77
London range broken lower on US data, fresh 24h low.
The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the London range (80770–81100). NY hours have since cut through the 80165 Asia low to a fresh 24h low near 80105, extending the lower-highs chain from the 81830 Asia peak. RSI(14) near 22 is stretched, and the ppi bar low at 80473 sits inside the 38.2–61.8% retrace of the NY drop.
Support: 80,104.78, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,164.72, 80,473.38, 81,074.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 80165 asia low would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 80000 round number extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 81075 pre-ppi high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Hammack 20:30 UTC could shift the read; Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC is the larger risk
Lower highs since 81666; PPI broke the 80770 prior base.
The hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC through the 80770 prior base and set a session low at 80320. That extends the slide from the 81503 London high, with RSI(14) near 28 and the 81075 lower high still capping. The asian low at 80165 is the day's floor, with the 80000 round number just below.
Support: 80,164.72, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,770.00, 81,075.00, 81,503.24
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 80165 asian low confirms a lower low on the day and puts the 80000 round number in play
Reclaiming the 80770 prior base would negate the PPI break and put the 81075 lower high back in view
A break above the lower-highs trendline from 81666 toward the 81503 London high would invalidate the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 80320 session low keeps the post-PPI leg extending
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from London high; data drop retesting morning low base.
Hot PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from the 81,075 lower high to a data low of 80,473. That move retested the 80,453 morning low and extended the chain of lower highs from the 81,503 London high into early NY session. RSI(14) sits near 40 with price below EMA20 and EMA50, and the 80,767 London low now caps overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,453 morning low exposes the 80,165 Asian low wick
Recovery above the 80,767 London low and the lower-high line near 81,075 would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this USD-driven read
12:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs into a holding floor · RSI 48 · price 80,833.98
Lower highs inside the Asian range; twin lows at 80,453–80,473.
BTC slid from 83,050 after yesterday's hot CPI. It has since held inside the Asian range of 80,165–81,831, capped by a descending trendline of lower highs from the 81,503 London high. The 12:30 UTC US data bar (PPI/retail) spiked to 80,473 and snapped back, forming twin lows with the 80,453 morning low. Price sits near the 61.8% of the London rally, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
What it said to watch
Close above the 81,075 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the London high
Failure to hold the 80,453 twin lows reopens the 80,165 Asia low and the 80,000 round number
Reclaim of the 81,503 London high would void the lower-high sequence and bring the 81,831 Asia high back into view
DXY and Treasury yield reaction to the 12:30 UTC PPI/retail prints into the NY open could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Intraday lower highs, volatile around data · RSI 36 · price 80,792.03
Lower highs from London high, lows holding above 80453.
London capped a series of lower highs off the 81503 London high, and price drifted into an 80767–81105 band ahead of the 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales cluster. The release bar swept that band low to a data low of 80569, then recovered to 80792, near the 78.6% retrace of the 80453–81503 rally. Price is trading below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 80,569.00, 80,453.00, 80,165.00
Resistance: 81,105.00, 81,503.00
What it said to watch
The 12:30 UTC data bar is still forming. Its close relative to 80767 shows whether the sweep holds or extends.
A break of the 80569 data low exposes the 80453 swing low, then the 80165 Asian low.
A close above the 81105 lower high breaks the descending lower-high chain and brings the 81503 London high back into view.
A hot PPI and retail combination would add to the CPI-driven pressure. A soft print removes it.
12:18 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 80,937.87
Lower highs from London high, tight box at session low.
Since the 81,503 London high, price has carved a chain of lower highs and is now boxed between the 80,767 session low and the 81,105 lower high. That leaves it mid-way inside the Asian range (80,165–81,831) as the post-CPI hawkish lean lingers. RSI(14) sits near 38, below both EMAs, with no momentum extreme.
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read; release-bar range is likely to exceed the ~195 USD ATR
M15 close above the 81,105 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 81,503 London high and the 50% fib
Failure to hold the 80,767 session low exposes the 80,453 swing low, then the 80,165 Asian low
A reclaim of the 81,831 Asian high would negate the post-CPI downtrend read
12:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London high · RSI 40 · price 80,880.93
Lower highs from 81,503; holding above 80,767 session low.
Since the 81,503 London high, price has printed a chain of lower highs into the London-NY transition. It is now sitting at the 61.8% retrace of the 80,453 swing low to London high leg, just above the 80,767 session low. Pressure from yesterday's hot CPI is still visible, with the Asia low at 80,165 the deepest flush in the window.
What it said to watch
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 81,105 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 80,767 session low exposes the 80,453 swing low, then the 80,165 asia low
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into data · RSI 42 · price 81,004.79
Lower highs from the Asian high, higher lows off the Asian low; tight band above session low.
After yesterday's hot-CPI drop from 83,800, BTC has printed a chain of lower highs. The sequence runs from the 81,830 Asian high through the 81,503 London high under a falling trendline, while the 80,165 Asian low (02:15 UTC spike) and the 80,453 swing low formed rising lows. Price is now compressing between the 80,767 session low and the 81,336 lower high, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42, ahead of PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC.
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 81,336 lower high breaks the falling trendline; above the 81,503 London high ends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 80,767 session low exposes the 80,453 swing low and the 80,165 Asian low
11:31 UTC
Downtrend since CPI, now compressing · RSI 40 · price 80,957.84
Lower highs vs higher lows after the Asia sweep of 80,165.
After yesterday's hot-CPI drop from 83,800, the Asia session swept to an asia low of 80,165 and rebounded. Since then, lower highs at the 81,666 swing high and the 81,503 London high have compressed against higher lows at 80,453 and the 80,767 session low. Price sits near 80,950, below both EMAs and back under the 81,105 prior floor ahead of US data.
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 80,767 session low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 80,453 higher low and the 80,165 asia low
Reclaim of the 81,105 prior floor and the lower-highs line opens the 81,503 london high, then the 81,666 swing high
11:18 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 80,930.87
Lower highs from 81,666; London range sliding toward session low, inside Asian range.
The descending trendline from the 81,666 pivot capped the London high at 81,503 and the 81,336 lower high, and price has slid to an 80,767 session low. RSI(14) sits near 37, and price remains inside the Asian low/high band of 80,165–81,830, the post-CPI drift from 83,816 still intact on USD firmness.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,767 session low exposes the 80,453 swing low, then the 80,165 Asian low
M15 close above the 81,336 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 81,503 London high is the next marker
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~70 min) could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 39 · price 80,963.84
Lower-high chain from 81,503 pressing the session low inside the Asian range.
Mid-London, BTC is still heavy after yesterday's hot-CPI slide from 83,817. London has printed lower highs from the 81,503 London high and is pressing the 80,787 session low, with RSI(14) near 39 and price under both EMAs. The 80,165 Asian low and 81,831 Asian high still frame the day.
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 80,787 session low exposes the 80,453 swing low, then the 80,165 Asian low
M15 close above the 81,336 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain; the 81,503 London high and 81,831 Asian high sit above
Lower-high chain since post-CPI drop; London range floor lost, price at session low.
Hot US CPI started the slide, and highs keep stepping lower: asian high 81831, then the London high at 81503 was rejected at the descending trendline. Late London has broken the 81105 range floor, and price now sits at the session low near 80805, below the 61.8% retrace of the 80453–81503 London leg. RSI(14) at 38 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 80,805.00, 80,453.00, 80,165.00
Resistance: 81,105.00, 81,503.00, 81,831.00
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 81105 range floor and the descending trendline near 81370 would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 80453 swing low exposes the 80165 asian low
Reclaim of the 61.8% London-leg fib (~80855) keeps the current break unconfirmed
Lower-high chain from the 81,830 Asian high; price mid Asian range.
London rally off the 80,453 swing low stalled at 81,503 and has slipped back to the 50% retrace near 80,950. That keeps the lower-high sequence from the 81,830 Asian high intact as the post-CPI downtrend holds. Price is drifting mid Asian range, about 2h before the US data.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 80,888 exposes the 61.8% retrace and the 80,453 swing low
A close above the 81,336 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 81,503 london high next
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; the Asian low at 80,164 and Asian high at 81,830 bracket the range
Lower-high sequence since the CPI drop; London fading toward the 50% retracement of the morning rally.
Hot US CPI drove yesterday's NY-session slide from 83,800 to 81,550, and the downtrend has printed lower highs since. The Asian session swept to an 80,165 asian low before recovering. London faded from the 81,503 london high through a lower high at 81,336 and now sits on the session low near 80,970, the 50% fib of the rally off the 80,453 swing low.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,970 session low and 50% fib exposes the 80,453 swing low, then the 80,165 asian low
M15 close above the 81,503 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens 81,830 asian high
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs vs higher lows, mid-London coil at 81105–81336.
Yesterday's hot US CPI print set off the CPI drop from 83817 into the 80165 Asia low. The Asian session also produced a series of lower highs off the 81831 Asia high. London lifted from 80776 but stalled at 81503, below the 38.2% retrace. Price is now coiling between the 81105 range low and the 81336 range high.
Support: 81,104.68, 80,776.04, 80,164.72
Resistance: 81,336.43, 81,503.24, 81,830.88
What it said to watch
Close above 81336 range high and the 81503 London high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 38.2% fib near 81560 next
Loss of the 81105 range low exposes the 80776 London low and then the 80165 Asia low
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) are the likely catalyst to resolve the coil
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in consolidation · RSI 53 · price 81,149.63
Lower highs since CPI; tight 81105–81340 range under session high.
Mid-London, BTC is coiling in a 81105–81340 band after the rally off the 80453 swing low stalled at the 81503 session high, extending the lower-high chain that began with the hot-CPI selloff. The range low sits on the 38.2% fib of that leg, price is pinned at EMA20 and RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 81,104.68, 80,776.04, 80,453.40
Resistance: 81,503.24, 81,666.06
What it said to watch
Break below the 81105 range low exposes the 80776 london low and the 80453 swing low
Close above the 81340 range top reopens the 81503 session high; clearing the 81666 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~2h45m) could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now compressing · RSI 50 · price 81,167.61
Lower highs vs higher lows since the Asia sweep; mid-range pullback in London.
The hot-CPI slide from 83800 has narrowed into lower highs (81830 asian high, 81503 london high) against higher lows since the 02:15 UTC sweep of the 80165 asian low. London's push to 81503 met rejection, and price has eased back to the 81105 pullback low, near the 38.2% of the london leg. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and price sits on the EMA20.
Support: 81,105.00, 80,453.00, 80,165.00
Resistance: 81,503.00, 81,830.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 81503 london high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression; 81830 asian high is the next level above
Loss of the 81105 pullback low exposes the 50–61.8% of the london leg at 80980–80855
A break of the 80453 swing low ends the higher-lows sequence and puts the 80165 asian low back in play
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:18 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend stalled into a range · RSI 51 · price 81,246.53
80,450–81,670 range inside the Asian range; London printed a higher low at 81,105.
The hot US CPI print knocked BTC from 83,817 into a 02:15 UTC sweep of the 80,165 asian low, and price has since held an 80,450–81,670 range. London lifted it off the 80,453 swing low to an 81,503 london high, and the pullback held the 81,105 london low near the 38.2% retrace. Price sits on rising support, with RSI(14) neutral at ~51 and price pinned to EMA20/EMA50.
What it said to watch
Close above the 81,503 london high puts the 81,666 swing high and 81,830 asian high in play
Loss of the 81,105 london low and the rising support line reopens the 80,453 swing low, then the 80,165 asian low
US Retail Sales/PPI at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 81831 against higher lows from 80165.
Yesterday's hot CPI turned the 83817 high into a slide toward 81600. The Asian session then swept to the 80165 asian low and reclaimed it, and price has since coiled under a line of lower highs from the 81831 asian high and the 81666 lower high. The early-London leg from the 80453 swing low stalled at the 81503 london high, and the pullback held the 81105 pullback low near its 38.2% retracement. Price is sitting just under EMA50.
Support: 81,104.68, 80,453.40, 80,164.72
Resistance: 81,503.24, 81,666.06, 81,830.88
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 81503 london high and the descending lower-high line opens the 81666 lower high, then the 81831 asian high
Failure at the 81105 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 80453 swing low
A loss of the 80165 asian low would void the sweep-and-reclaim read
08:47 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now compressing · RSI 52 · price 81,184.59
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range.
Yesterday's hot US CPI broke the 83,800 high at 12:30 UTC and set off a slide toward 81,500. An Asia-session flush to the 80,165 Asian low was absorbed, and the 80,453 higher low followed. The London push stalled at the 81,503 London high, below the 81,666 swing high, and price is now coiling mid-range near EMA20 at RSI 52.
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h45m) could break the compression either way
A close above the 81,503 London high and the descending line exposes the 81,666 swing high and the 81,831 Asian high
Failure to hold the 80,776 London low exposes the 80,453 higher low; losing that opens the 80,165 Asian low
Lower highs since the Asia sweep, lows holding above 80,165.
After yesterday's hot-CPI drop from 83,800, Asia swept down to the 80,165 asia low. Rebounds have since printed lower highs at 81,830, 81,666 and the 81,503 london high, while the 80,453 swing low held. Price is rotating near the 61.8% of the Asia leg fib, with the lower-highs trendline capping rallies.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,503 london high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending-high chain and puts the 81,830 asia high in view
Failure to hold the 80,453 swing low exposes the 80,165 asia low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; the CPI release triggered a ~1,200-point M15 drop yesterday
08:17 UTC
Downtrend since the CPI break, now compressing · RSI 46 · price 81,219.56
Lower highs against rising lows, contracting range inside the Asian range.
Since the 02:15 UTC Asia flush to the 80,165 asian low, BTC has compressed between rising lows (80,165, then the 80,453 swing low) and a lower-highs line from the 81,831 asian high through the 81,666 lower high. The early London bounce off the 80,776 london low met rejection at 81,503 on that line. Price sits between EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral at 46, still well below the hot-CPI breakdown from 83,800.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,503 london high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression; the 81,666 lower high and 81,831 asian high come next
Failure at the 80,776 london low and the 80,453 swing low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 80,165 asian low
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read and resolve the range
A firmer DXY or rebounding yields remain a headwind channel for BTC after yesterday's hot core CPI
Higher low at 80,453 inside Asian range; 81,666 lower high overhead.
The hot US core CPI knocked BTC off 83,800 yesterday. The Asian session then swept down to the 80,165 Asian low before a higher low printed at 80,453. Early London has lifted price to 81,485 on a micro higher-high chain, still inside the Asian range and only just above EMA50 near 81,420, with the 81,666 swing high and 81,831 Asian high overhead and RSI(14) at 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,666 swing high and 81,831 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 82,065 prior swing next
Loss of the 81,060 micro low puts the 80,453 higher low and 80,165 Asian low back in play
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Downtrend, early-London bounce off a higher low · RSI 55 · price 81,328.44
Lower highs 81830/81666 vs higher lows 80164/80453, compressing.
The post-CPI slide from 84078 ran into an Asia-session spike to the 80164 asian low. Since then the 80453 higher low has held, and early London has pushed to an 81376 session high, near the 78.6% retrace and just under EMA50. The overnight USD fade has only produced a bounce so far, with the 81666 swing high and the lower-highs line still capping.
Support: 80,453.00, 80,164.00
Resistance: 81,376.00, 81,666.00, 81,830.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81666 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 81830 asian high in play
Rejection at the 81376 session high or the lower-highs line keeps the downtrend read intact
Failure to hold the 80453 higher low reopens the 80164 asian low
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~4h45m) could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Downtrend since CPI, early London bounce · RSI 53 · price 81,102.68
Lower highs from 81831, higher lows since 80165 Asia sweep.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC yesterday broke price from 83809 and set the lower-high chain. The Asian range ran 80165–81831 after a sweep of the overnight lows. Early London is lifting off the 80453 swing low into a 81138 London high, compressing between a falling lower-high line and a rising Asia-low line.
Support: 80,453.40, 80,164.72
Resistance: 81,137.65, 81,666.06, 81,830.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81666 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the asian high at 81831 sits above
Failure to hold the 80453 swing low reopens the 80165 asian low
Close back below EMA20 near 81000 would mark the London high at 81138 as a rejection
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 81666 after Asian sweep of 80165.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC yesterday knocked BTC off 83816, and the slide extended through NY. Asia swept the 80165 asian low, then rebounds stalled at a lower high of 81666 and a swing high of 81002. Early London has price at 80935, on the 38.2% retrace of the 81666–80453 leg, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 80,453.40, 80,164.72
Resistance: 81,001.79, 81,666.06
What it said to watch
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 80453 session low exposes the 80165 asian low
An M15 close above the 81002 swing high and the 50% fib near 81060 breaks the latest lower high
A reclaim of the 81666 lower high and the asian high trendline invalidates the lower-high chain
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 49 · price 80,902.90
Post-CPI selloff, then lower highs above higher lows.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC yesterday knocked BTC from 83,816. The decline ran into an Asian-session sweep low at 80,164 before buyers stepped in. Since then, lower highs at 81,830 and 81,666 have formed above a 80,453 swing low, and London open finds price at the 38.2% fib of the latest leg, just under the 81,000 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 81,000 round number and the 81,666 swing high would break the lower highs, putting the 81,830 Asian high in view
Failure to hold the 80,453 swing low would expose the 80,164 Asian low and the 80,000 psych level
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from asian high, bounce off swing low stalling at 81000.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC yesterday knocked BTC from 83800 to 82600, and the slide extended into the NY close. In Asia, a 02:15 UTC spike to the 80164 asian low was bought back. Since then, highs have stepped lower from the 81830 asian high to the 81666 lower high. Ahead of London open, the bounce from the 80453 swing low is stalling at the 38.2% fib and the 81000 round number.
Support: 80,453.40
Resistance: 81,000.00, 81,666.06
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81000 and the 50% fib near 81060 extends the bounce toward the lower high at 81666
Close above 81666 breaks the lower-high chain; 81830 asian high next
Failure to hold the 80453 swing low exposes the 80164 asian low
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the CPI drop · RSI 45 · price 80,930.87
Choppy 80165–81666 swing range below the broken 81350–81900 overnight range.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC yesterday knocked BTC from 83800 to 81600. After an overnight 81350–81900 range, price broke lower during the Asia session to an 80165 session low, and has since chopped below a lower-high trendline after rejection at the 81666 swing high. Price is now testing the fib 38.2% of the 81666–80453 drop, with the fib 50% at 81060 overhead and RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 80,453.40, 80,164.72
Resistance: 81,059.70, 81,666.06, 81,830.88
What it said to watch
Rejection at the fib 50% near 81060 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
M15 close above the 81666 swing high and the lower-high trendline breaks the downtrend read, exposing the 81831 session high
Failure to hold the 80453 swing low reopens the 80165 session low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; USD is already fading its CPI spike
Lower highs below 81,831; higher low at 80,453 vs Asia sweep low.
The hot-CPI selloff from 83,817 extended into the Asia session. A wick swept to 80,165 before rebounds capped at the 81,831 Asian high and a 81,666 lower high. The latest leg set a session low at 80,453, a higher low versus the sweep low, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs ahead of London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,060 fib 50% and the lower-highs trendline would break the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 80,453 session low reopens the 80,165 sweep low
Reclaim of the 81,666 lower high and 81,831 Asian high needed to neutralise the post-CPI downtrend
US PPI / Retail Sales / Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain under descending trendline, retesting lows.
Selling that began with the hot US CPI print drop from 83,800 has carried through the Asia session. Each bounce has capped under the descending trendline. The rebound from the 80,165 Asian low stalled at the 81,666 swing high, and price is now pressing the 80,477 swing low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 38 and not yet oversold.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 80,985 breakdown level eases the lower-low sequence
Close above the descending trendline and the 81,666 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; the 81,831 Asian high sits just above
Failure to hold the 80,477 swing low puts the 80,165 Asian low and the 80,000 round number in play
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia consolidation · RSI 46 · price 80,961.84
Post-CPI lower highs; Asia spike-low sweep reclaimed, higher lows since.
The sell-off from the hot US CPI print (83,809 to 81,458) extended in the Asia session with a sweep to the 80,165 spike low that was quickly reclaimed. Since then price has held an 80,645–81,666 consolidation with higher lows. The latest rejection at the 81,666 swing high has pulled price back to the 80,939 higher low, near the 50% fib of that bounce, below both EMAs. BTC has not followed the overnight USD fade.
What it said to watch
Close below the 80,939 higher low and the 80,645 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 80,165 spike low
Reclaim of 81,350, the prior NY range floor, and then 81,666 would put the Asia high at 81,831 back in play
London open in ~1h may set the session range around the spike-low fib
US PPI, retail sales and claims cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the CPI sell-off; Asia low swept, bounce high rejected.
The hot US CPI print yesterday knocked BTC from 83,800 to 81,500, and every rally since has set a lower high. Asia session swept to 80,165 before recovering, and the bounce from the 80,645 swing low was rejected at a lower high of 81,666. Price is back on the 81,000 round number, near the 61.8% retrace of that bounce, late in the Asian range.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,666 lower high breaks the descending trendline and challenges the 81,831 Asian high
Failure to hold 81,000 round number exposes the 80,645 swing low, then the 80,165 Asian low
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
London open typically resets the Asian range; a move outside 80,165–81,831 changes the session structure
Lower highs since CPI; Asia broke range floor, higher low at 80,645.
The hot-CPI drop from 83,800 at yesterday's 12:30 UTC release set the tone. Asia then broke the NY range floor near 81,290 with a sweep to the 80,165 Asia low, and the bounce off the 80,645 higher low was rejected at the 81,666 swing high. Price is back at the 50% bounce fib near 81,110, late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) at 44 and both EMAs overhead.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 81,290 range floor would undo the Asia breakdown read
Failure to hold the 80,645 higher low reopens the 80,165 Asia low
A break of the descending highs and the 81,666 swing high would end the lower-high sequence
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
05:05 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, sharp rebound from Asia low · RSI 51 · price 81,578.16
80165 flush then higher low at 80645; back inside Asian range.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC yesterday knocked BTC off 83800 into an 81450–81900 NY range. The 02:15 UTC Asia flush to the 80165 flush low failed to hold, and a higher low at 80645 led to a near-full retrace. Price now sits under the 81666 session high and the 81830 asian high, above ema20 (~81340) but pinned at EMA50 (~81600).
Support: 81,340.00, 80,645.00, 80,165.00
Resistance: 81,666.00, 81,830.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 81830 asian high flips the Asia flush into a full false break and reclaims the pre-flush range
Loss of ema20 near 81340 puts the 80645 higher low back in play
Break below the 80645 higher low reopens the 80165 flush low
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
04:47 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, rebounding off Asia flush · RSI 51 · price 81,505.24
Sweep below Asian range, reclaimed; higher low at 80,645.
Hot US CPI knocked BTC from the 83,000s to 81,460 during NY hours. Late in the Asia session price flushed to 80,165, printed a higher low at 80,645 and reclaimed 81,320. It is now pressing the 81,580 rebound high, still under the Asian high at 81,830, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 81,320 reclaim reopens the 80,645 higher low
Break of the 80,165 flush low negates the sweep read
Close above the Asian high at 81,830 puts the 82,065 NY high in play
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs intact; Asia sweep reclaimed, higher low at 80645.
The hot US CPI selloff from 83817 extended into the Asia session, with a sweep to 80165 at 02:00 UTC that was quickly reclaimed. Price has since set a higher low at 80645 and is pressing toward the 81586 lower high, which sits beside the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI fib. Price is back above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
Support: 80,645.19, 80,164.72
Resistance: 81,586.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81586 lower high, the 38.2% post-CPI fib, challenges the lower-highs sequence
Break of the 81830 asian high and the lower highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 80645 higher low reopens the 80165 sweep low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs after Asian flush, small base above 80645.
The hot US CPI print in NY broke BTC from 83800 to 82600. Selling ran on to an 81300–81900 base, and an Asian flush took out that broken low to the 80164 asian low. The rebound stalled at an 81586 lower high and price has since stepped lower. It now sits just above the 80645 swing low, testing the 81000 fib 50% of the flush, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 80,645.19
Resistance: 81,000.00, 81,291.48, 81,586.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81000 (fib 50%) and back over the 81291 broken low would ease the lower-high sequence
Acceptance above the 81586 lower high breaks the descending trendline read
Failure to hold the 80645 swing low reopens the 80164 asian low
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs after 80165 sweep; testing session low.
The CPI drop from yesterday's hot US print took BTC from 83800 to below 82000, and the slide has carried into the Asia session. A 02:15 UTC sweep to the 80165 spike low snapped back, but the rebound was rejected at a lower high of 81586. Price is now retesting the 80645 session low with RSI(14) near 39, below both EMAs.
Support: 80,645.00, 80,165.00
Resistance: 81,586.00, 81,831.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80645 session low reopens the 80165 spike low
A close back above the 81586 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain; the asian high at 81831 caps the session
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs in Asia · RSI 37 · price 80,771.05
Lower-high sequence after Asia sweep of the NY low.
The slide that began at the hot US CPI print with a firmer dollar extended in the Asia session. A flush to the 80,165 sweep low took out the 81,291 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 81,586 bounce high, and successive lower highs have pulled price back to the 80,740s, above the 80,461 bounce low, with RSI(14) near 37.
What it said to watch
Break below the 80,165 sweep low extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 81,291 NY low and 81,586 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
81,831 Asia high caps the session range; only a reclaim of it neutralises the Asia selloff
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI range broken in Asia; spike low 80,165, lower high at 81,586.
Yesterday's hot US CPI took BTC from 83,800 to 81,540, and the overnight 81,350–82,065 range gave way in the Asian session. Price spiked to 80,165, then the rebound stalled at a lower high of 81,586, below the 81,830 Asian high. Price is now fading toward 80,940 late in the Asian session, with RSI(14) near 38 and both EMAs overhead.
What it said to watch
Close below the 80,165 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 80,000 round number
Recovery above the 81,586 lower high and the 81,830 Asian high would break the descending structure, with the 82,065 post-CPI high next above
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the CPI drop; Asia session sweep to 80164 rebounded but closes are holding under the range floor.
Hot US CPI drove yesterday's slide from 83800 to 81550, and a late Asia session flush swept the 81290–81350 range floor down to the 80164.72 flush low before a sharp rebound. The bounce high at 81586 was rejected near the 38.2% post-CPI fib, and price at 81147 sits back below the range floor with RSI(14) near 41, holding the 81043.75 rebound low.
Support: 81,043.75, 80,461.39, 80,164.72
Resistance: 81,350.41, 81,586.15, 81,830.88
What it said to watch
Close back above the 81350 range floor shifts the read to a false break of the lows
Loss of the 81043.75 rebound low exposes the 80461 spike base and the 80164.72 flush low
Rejection at the 81586 bounce high / 38.2% post-CPI fib keeps the lower-high sequence intact; the 81830.88 asian high caps the session range
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read via the dollar and yields
03:04 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, flattening into range · RSI 47 · price 81,379.38
Lower highs inside an 81290–82065 range after a swept low.
Yesterday's hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC drove a slide from 83800 to about 81460, and price then capped below a post-cpi high of 82065 with a run of lower highs. In late Asia, a 02:15 UTC spike swept the asian low at 81291 down to a spike low of 80165. Most of that move has been reclaimed, but the rebound high at 81586 is capping and price sits back inside the range below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 81,291.48, 80,164.72
Resistance: 81,586.15
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 81291 asian low reopens the 80165 spike low and turns the sweep into a lower-low
Reclaiming the 81586 rebound high and the 81830 asian high would break the lower-highs line from 82065
Post-cpi high at 82065 caps the range top; acceptance above it ends the post-CPI downtrend read
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC, with a firm USD backdrop, could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 82,065; spike sweep under range floor, partial recovery.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC drove an 83,817→81,539 drop, followed by a base between 81,290 and 82,065, with lower highs at the post-cpi hi of 82,065, then 81,911 and the asian high of 81,831. A 02:15 UTC Asia session spike to the 80,165 spike low was bought back within one bar, but price is still holding just under the 81,291 range floor and the psych 81,000 level sits just below.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81,291 range floor would turn the sweep into a false break; 81,560 (38.2% of the cpi leg fib) is next above
Break of the lower highs trendline near the 81,831 asian high would end the post-CPI sequence; 82,065 post-cpi hi is the next reference
Loss of the psych 81,000 level reopens the 80,165 spike low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower in Asia · RSI 27 · price 80,592.25
Lower highs since CPI; overnight range floor broken.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC yesterday knocked BTC about 1,200 points off 83,800. Price then held an overnight range from the 81,290 range floor to the 82,065 cpi bounce high, capped by a lower-high trendline. The 02:15 UTC Asia-session bar broke the floor in a flush to the 80,165 swing low, and the current bar is pressing session lows with RSI(14) near 27.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 81,290 range floor would mark the Asia breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 80,165 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 80,000 round number
A close above the lower-high trendline and the 81,830 asia high invalidates the downtrend read
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 81,370.39
Lower highs and lower lows inside 81290–81910 post-CPI range.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC triggered the post-CPI drop from 83,817, and price has since compressed into a grinding 81,290–81,910 range with lower highs at the 81,910 swing high, the 81,830 Asian high and the 81,744 lower high. Asian session price is pressing the prior low at 81,350 just above the 81,291 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 42 and the firm USD capping bounces.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,291 Asian low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 81,000 round number in play
Reclaim of the 81,744 lower high and the 81,830 Asian high breaks the descending trendline; the 81,910 swing high is the range top
Hold of the 81,350 prior low on this test keeps the range read intact
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows inside a 81,290–82,065 post-CPI band.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83,800 to about 81,600 within a few bars. Since then price has ground lower inside a band capped by the 82,065 range high, with lower highs printing under the falling trendline. Early Asia session set a fresh session low at 81,291 under the 81,350 swing low, and price now sits in the lower half of the Asian range with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
What it said to watch
A break below the 81,291 session low extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the 81,831 session high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
A reclaim of the 82,065 range high would invalidate the post-CPI drift read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~10.5h) could materially shift this read after the CPI beat
01:47 UTC
Downtrend since CPI, stabilising in Asia · RSI 53 · price 81,705.02
Lower highs capping, early-Asia low reclaimed.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83,809 to the 81,500s, and a lower-high sequence from the 82,066 swing high has capped every bounce since. Early Asia saw a false break below 81,350 to an Asian low of 81,291, then a reclaim to 81,700 with a higher low at 81,476. Price is pressing the descending trendline under the 81,831 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,831 Asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 82,066 swing high
Loss of the 81,476 higher low, then the 81,291 Asian low, resumes the lower-low chain
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and marginal lower lows within 81,290–82,065 range.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC triggered a ~2,500-point slide from 83,817. Price has since compressed between 81,290 and the 82,065 cpi bounce high, with a lower high at 81,910 and lower highs capping each rebound. Early Asia session took out the 81,350 prior low to print an 81,291 asian low, then the bounce to the 81,831 asian high faded; RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price is sitting on EMA20.
What it said to watch
A close below the 81,291 asian low extends the lower-low sequence from the CPI drop
A close above the 81,831 asian high and the lower-high trendline breaks the post-CPI drift, with 81,910 lower high and 82,065 cpi bounce next
Holding above the 81,350 prior low would turn the Asia dip into a false break
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since post-CPI drop; early Asia range 81291–81830.
The post-CPI selloff from 83,817 has decayed into a grind of lower highs. Early in the Asia session, price swept the 81,350 prior low to an Asia low of 81,291, then rebounded to an Asia high of 81,830 and faded back to sit just under EMA20 (~81,610), with RSI(14) neutral at 46. The hot CPI print and firm USD remain the backdrop.
What it said to watch
Close above the 81,910 swing high, near the 23.6% level of the post-CPI fib, breaks the lower highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81,291 asia low extends the lower-low chain; holding above the prior low keeps the sweep as a false break
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI / Retail Sales bundle (~11h) could materially shift this read
01:06 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 81,634.10
Lower highs since NY bounce; Asia swept double low and recovered.
BTC fell about 2,500 from the 83,800 pre-release spike after the hot US CPI print and has since ground lower in a lower-high sequence from the 82,065 NY bounce. Early in the Asia session, price swept the 81,350 double low to an Asia low of 81,291 and recovered. It now sits just above EMA20, under the lower-highs trendline, with the 81,740 Asia high capping.
What it said to watch
A close above the 81,740 Asia high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence, with the 81,910 lower high and 82,065 NY bounce high next
A return below the 81,350 double low after the sweep reopens the 81,291 Asia low
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower-high/lower-low chain; Asian session opened with a rejection at 81744.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83,800 into the 81,500s. Every bounce since has printed a lower high: the post-CPI high at 82,065, then 81,910 and now the Asian high at 81,744, where the 00:30 UTC bar was rejected back to 81,450. RSI(14) sits near 41 with price below both EMAs, and the 81,350 swing low is the nearest floor.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,744 Asian high breaks the lower-high line and the post-CPI sequence
Failure to hold the 81,350 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
A move back above the 81,910 lower high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near the lows · RSI 50 · price 81,686.04
Lower highs above a flat floor near 81,350 since the post-CPI slide.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83,800 to the 81,350 post-cpi low. Late NY into early Asia has compressed under a line of lower highs from the 82,066 bounce high through the 81,911 lower high. Price sits at 81,686, boxed between the 81,740 minor high and the 81,441 swing low, with RSI flat near 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81,740 minor high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression; 81,911 lower high is next
Failure at 81,441 swing low exposes the 81,350 post-cpi low; a break there extends the post-CPI drop
Asian range forming between 81,441 and 81,740 sets the box for the London open
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 82,066; shallow higher low at 81,384 above the 81,350 NY low.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the pre-release range, and BTC has printed lower highs since, bottoming at the 81,350 NY low. The Asia session opened with a bounce off the 81,384 higher low, and price is now pressing the falling trendline near 81,750. RSI(14) is neutral near 51, with price back above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,880 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain and clears the falling trendline, opening the 82,066 swing high and the 23.6% post-CPI fib near 81,930
Failure to hold the 81,384 higher low and the 81,350 NY low resumes the post-CPI downtrend leg
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI / Retail Sales cluster (~12h) could materially shift this read; DXY pressing 103.00 remains the macro headwind