Lower highs since Wed; downtrend line broken, rebound capped at 61.8%.
The 84,078 double top from Tuesday and Wednesday gave way in Wednesday's NY session, and lower highs and lower lows ran into Thursday's post-PPI dip to a week low at 79,737. That break below 80,000 failed within the hour: price reversed sharply as yields fell and the USD faded the hot data, breaking the downtrend line from Wednesday's breakdown. The rebound stalled at 82,539, near the 61.8% fib of the Wednesday–Thursday drop. Price now holds above the 82,000 round number and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 58.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,539 rebound high and 61.8% fib exposes the weekly open at 83,685, then the double top at 84,078
Failure to hold the 81,841 pullback low reopens the 79,737 week low
A return below the broken downtrend line would revive the lower-high sequence
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC Fri (~4.5h) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Double top at 84078 broke Wednesday; Thursday's sweep to 79737 reclaimed, bounce stalling under the neckline.
BTC peaked at 84258 in Monday's London session. Two failures at 84078 on Tuesday and Wednesday formed a double top, which broke during Wednesday's NY session through the 82976 neckline and set lower lows into Thursday. The hot PPI print pushed price to a week low at 79737 in the first hour of NY. It then reversed by about $1,650 in a single bar as Treasury yields fell and the USD faded. The rebound has stalled at the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday decline (~82420), just under the 82539 bounce high. Price is back above EMA(20) at ~81841 and RSI(14) has recovered to ~59.
Support: 81,841.00, 81,396.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,539.00, 82,976.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC Friday; a hawkish shift on hike timing could materially change this read
H1 close above the 82976 neckline puts price back inside the prior range and invalidates the double top read
Failure to hold ema20 / 50% fib near 81841–81908 exposes the 38.2% fib at 81396
A break back below the 79737 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
21:07 UTC
Downtrend since midweek, rebounding off week low · RSI 53 · price 81,941.76
A double top at 84078 capped Tuesday and Wednesday. A break lower in Wednesday's NY session then set lower highs and lower lows, first to the 80164 Asia low and then to a 79737 week low on today's hot US PPI print. That flush reversed sharply in the NY session as the USD and yields faded the data. Price reclaimed EMA(20) and stalled at the 82539 PPI high near the 61.8% fib, and now sits around the 50% retracement with RSI(14) near 53, still below the 83451 week open.
Support: 81,736.00, 80,164.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,539.00, 83,451.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below EMA(20) near 81736 puts the 80164 Asia low back in focus
Close above the 82539 PPI high and the 61.8% fib opens the path to the 83451 week open
Loss of the 79737 week low would extend the lower-low sequence from the double top
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84,258; false break below 80,165 reclaimed.
BTC has printed lower highs since Monday's 84,258 peak. The double top at 84,078 on Tuesday and Wednesday gave way in Wednesday's NY session, and the slide reached a week low of 79,737 just after today's hot US PPI. That low did not hold: as the dollar faded the data on falling yields, price reversed back above the 80,165 swing low, broke the lower-high line through the 81,690 breakout area and reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50). The bounce has stalled at the 82,540 session high, near the 61.8% of the sell-off fib, with the 83,000 range floor from Tuesday and Wednesday overhead.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,540 session high opens the 83,000 range floor, which was the double top's breakdown point
Failure to hold the 81,690 breakout area puts the 80,165 swing low and 79,737 week low back in focus
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the hot PPI print
Lower highs and lows from 84.2K; V-shaped rebound off sub-80K low testing the 61.8% retracement.
Monday's 84,258 high and a double top at 84,078 on Tuesday and Wednesday gave way to a Wednesday NY-session breakdown through the 83,030 range floor. Thursday's hot PPI print extended the slide to a week low of 79,737. That sub-80K sweep reversed hard in the first hours of NY as the dollar's post-data gains faded on falling yields. Price is back above EMA(20) near 81,690 and EMA(50), stalling just under the 61.8% retracement around 82,420. RSI(14) has recovered to about 61 from the mid-30s, and the 82,540 session high is capping the move for now.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 82,540 session high and the 61.8% retracement opens a retest of the 83,030 range floor
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 81,690 keeps the rebound framed as a retracement within the downtrend from the double top
A break back below the 79,737 week low would confirm a fresh lower-low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Rejection at the 84,078 double top on Tuesday and Wednesday set up a lower-high sequence, and the early-NY breakdown from 83,050 on Wednesday took price into an 81,460 range floor. Thursday's hot PPI pushed the leg to a 79,737 week low below the 80,165 Asia-session low. The move reversed within the hour as the USD faded its data gains. Price cleared the lower-high line, reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 81,980, and stalled at the 82,540 NY high, which sits just above the 61.8% fib of the 84,078–79,737 drop.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,540 ny high and 61.8% fib opens the 83,050 breakdown level
Slip back below EMA(50) and the 81,460 range floor would re-expose the 79,737 week low
84,078 double top remains the cap on the lower-high structure while it holds
Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower lows after double-top break, rebound stalling near the 61.8% retracement.
A double top at 84,078 (Tuesday and Wednesday) gave way in Wednesday's NY session. Price lost the 83,000 range floor and printed lower lows into Thursday. Today's hot PPI print briefly stretched the move to a 79,737 low, below the 80,000 handle, before a near-2,800 rebound as the dollar faded with yields. That rebound broke the lower-highs line and stalled at 82,521, close to the 61.8% retracement. Price now holds above EMA(20) near 81,440, sits just above EMA(50), and RSI(14) has recovered to around 57.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,521 rebound high clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the 83,000 range floor; failure there leaves a lower high
Loss of EMA(20) near 81,440 would put the 79,737 PPI low back in focus
84,078 double top remains the week high and the cap on the broader structure
Hammack at 20:30 UTC today and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday broken by a V-reversal off a 79737 sweep.
A double top at 84078 on Tuesday and Wednesday morning gave way to a breakdown from the 83400 shelf at Wednesday's 12:00 UTC bar. That opened a grind of lower highs into today. The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC flushed price through the 80165 prior low to a 79737 week low. Price then reversed sharply during NY hours as Treasury yields and the dollar faded. The rebound reclaimed the EMA(20) near 81300 and broke the lower-highs line. It is stalling between the 61.8% retrace at 82420 and the 82521 post-PPI high, with RSI(14) back to ~54 from sub-30.
Support: 81,300.00, 80,165.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,521.00, 83,400.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
Hourly closes above the 82521 post-PPI high would put the 83400 breakdown shelf back in view, with the 84078 double top beyond
A drop back below the EMA(20) near 81300 would reopen the 80165 prior low and the 79737 week low
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri is the main event risk; a hawkish read on the PPI overshoot could undo the rebound
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC today may set the tone for yields before Warsh
Lower highs from the 84,078 double top; false break below 80,164 reclaimed.
The week's dominant leg came from the 84,078 double top set Tuesday and Wednesday, which broke 83,000 at Wednesday's NY open and left a sequence of lower highs into Thursday. The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print first pushed price to a 79,737 week low, but the next NY-hour bar reversed about 1,800 dollars as yields pulled back and the USD faded. That bar reclaimed EMA(20) near 81,360 and the lower-highs trendline, and price now sits at the 50% fib of the 84,078–79,737 drop, still below EMA(50) near 82,050, with RSI(14) back near 52.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 82,065 lower high and EMA(50) would break the lower-highs sequence, with the 61.8% fib at 82,420 next overhead
Rejection at the 50% fib followed by a close back under EMA(20) near 81,360 would weaken the false break read and expose the thu asia low at 80,164
Failure to hold 80,164 would put the 79,737 week low back in play
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read given the hot PPI backdrop
14:05 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday · RSI 34 · price 80,110.78
Double top at 84078 broke the week's range; lower-high sequence below EMA20.
Tuesday and Wednesday both capped at 84078. The double top gave way from Wednesday's London-NY transition, breaking the 80965–84258 range held since Sunday, and that double-top leg has printed lower highs since. Pullbacks have stalled beneath EMA(20), now near 81150, with the last lower high at 81503 in Thursday's London session. Hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC then took out the 80164 Asia low to a 79737 PPI low, leaving RSI(14) near 34, weak but not oversold, and price just above the 80000 round number.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,737.19
Resistance: 81,150.00, 81,503.24
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 80164 Asia low would mark the post-PPI break as a false break
Reclaim of EMA(20) and the 81503 lower high, near the 38.2% of the double-top leg, invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 80000 round number and the 79737 PPI low extends the lower-low sequence
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC (~13.5h) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Double top at 84,078 broken, lower highs pressing twin lows.
Wednesday's hot-CPI bar at the NY open broke the 83,000 area and completed a double top at 84,078. Price has printed lower highs since, trading below EMA(20) near 81,100 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 38. Today's hotter PPI pushed price back to the twin lows at 80,453–80,473, after demand absorbed the Asia-session spike to the 80,165 week low; rallies have stalled at the 81,503 lower high, well short of the fib 50% retracement at 82,120.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 80,453 twin lows exposes the 80,165 week low
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 81,100 plus a close above the 81,503 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; fib 50% at 82,120 is the next reference above
Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC (Hammack 20:30 UTC first) could materially shift this read after the hot PPI
Range break lower from the 82,300–84,260 range; lower highs capping bounces.
BTC rolled over from the 84,080–84,260 cap that held Monday through Wednesday. Wednesday's hot US core CPI print in the NY session drove the range break below 82,000, and price has not followed the overnight USD give-back. A week low printed at 80,165 in today's Asia session. The London bounce then met rejection at the 81,500 bounce high, under the falling EMA20 (~81,400) and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 40 and price holding in the lower quarter of the post-CPI leg.
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 81,500 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 81,660 38.2% retrace of the post-CPI leg and the 82,065 range top sit above
Price holding below the EMA20 near 81,400 keeps the post-CPI downtrend structure intact
Failure to hold the 80,450 Thu low exposes the 80,165 week low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
Lower highs and lower lows below a falling EMA(20) after a double top at 84,078.
Rejections at 84,078 on both Tuesday and Wednesday formed a double top. The hot US CPI print in Wednesday's NY session broke the range and started a CPI sell-off, with a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows since. Buyers stepped in after today's Asia session printed a week low at 80,165, but the rebound stalled at the fib 38.2 near 81,660, and price now sits below a falling EMA(20) near 81,475 with RSI(14) around 39.
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read; the prior CPI beat drove the current leg.
An hourly close below the 80,453 swing low and the 80,165 week low would extend the lower-low sequence, putting the 80,000 round number in focus.
A close back above the ema20 and the post-CPI lower-highs trendline, followed by acceptance over the fib 38.2 at 81,660, would break the lower-high structure.
DXY firming back above 102.00 would add to the macro headwind behind the CPI sell-off.
Double top at 84,078 broken; lower highs and lower lows below EMA(20).
The 84,078 double top from Tuesday and Wednesday gave way into Wednesday's NY open, when the hot core CPI print and a firmer USD pushed price through the 82,900 range floor. The drop reached a week low at 80,165 in Thursday's Asia session. Each bounce since has stalled under a falling lower-high line and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 42; the 38.2% fib at 81,660 has capped the retracement, while the Tuesday low at 80,965 and the 80,453 Asian low mark the floor.
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; the USD has already faded its CPI gains as yields slipped
An H1 close above the lower-high line and the 38.2% fib near 81,660 would break the post-CPI sequence, with the 82,065 lower high next
Failure to hold the 80,453 Asian low exposes the 80,165 week low; a close below it confirms a fresh lower low
Double top at 84,078 broken; lower highs since CPI.
BTC capped twice at 84,078 at the London open on Tuesday and Wednesday, forming a double top. Hot US CPI then drove a NY-session slide of about 1,500 points out of the 83,000–84,080 range, and lower highs have followed since, including an Asia-session wick to the 80,165 week low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 81,600 with RSI(14) around 41, holding just above the fib 23.6 at 81,088 while the session high at 81,500 and the 81,910 lower high cap the rebound.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 81,500 session high and the lower-highs trendline, then above EMA20 near 81,600, would break the post-CPI lower-highs sequence; 81,910 lower high is the next reference
Loss of the 81,088 fib 23.6 and the 80,450 session low exposes the 80,165 week low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Double top broken on CPI; lower highs, short-term higher low.
Supply capped the week twice at 84078 in Tuesday and Wednesday London, under Monday's 84258 high. Wednesday's hotter US core CPI broke the 82910 neckline of that double top, and the drop extended to an 80165 week low in Thursday's Asia session even as USD faded its CPI spike. Since then Asia has printed a higher low at 80453 and reclaimed the Tuesday low at 80965, with RSI(14) near 45 after a higher reading on the lower close (bullish divergence), while price sits just under EMA(20) near 81650, where the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg and the 81666 Asia high also sit.
Support: 80,965.00, 80,453.00, 80,165.00
Resistance: 81,650.00, 82,065.00, 82,910.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib near 81650, then the 82065 post-CPI shelf top, would mark the first higher high since CPI
Failure to hold the 80453 higher low and the 80165 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 82910 neckline would neutralise the double top read
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Range break lower, lower highs below EMA20 after Asia-session sweep.
BTC held an 82,900–84,250 range from Sunday into Wednesday, with the top capped on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday's hotter US CPI broke the range floor during NY hours. Thursday's Asia session swept to an 80,165 sweep low beneath the 80,965 Tuesday low. The rebound stalled at the 81,700 Asian high, near the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI drop. Price is now pinned between the 80,450 swing low and the tue low, below the 81,350 ema20, with RSI(14) near 39.
What it said to watch
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 80,965 tue low would reverse the latest lower-low break
Close above the 81,700 asian high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 80,450 swing low exposes the 80,165 sweep low and the 80,000 round number
Rejection at the 81,350 ema20 keeps the downtrend structure intact
Lower highs from the 84,078 double top; post-CPI range broken lower.
BTC peaked at 84,258 on Monday, then capped twice at 84,078 in the London sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday's hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC triggered the CPI leg lower into a 81,291–82,066 range, and today's Asian session broke the range floor and printed a week low at 80,164. That flush reversed, but the 05:00 UTC bar closed below the Tue low at 80,965, sitting just above the Asia low with RSI(14) near 30 and price under both EMAs, while the overnight USD fade drew no relief bid.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 80,965 tue low would undo the breakdown and put the 81,291 range floor back in play
Failure to hold the 80,477 Asia low exposes the 80,164 week low and the 80,000 round number
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Acceptance above the 82,066 range top and the lower-highs line would neutralise the CPI-leg downtrend
05:05 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after Asia sweep · RSI 40 · price 81,590.15
Lower highs since CPI breakdown from 83,000–83,800 range.
Wednesday's hot US CPI broke BTC out of the 83,000–83,800 range during the NY session. That confirmed a double top at 84,078, tested on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, and price has carved lower highs along the 82,065 CPI range high since. In today's Asia session price swept Tuesday's 80,965 low to 80,165, then closed back above it. Price now sits below the EMA(20) near 81,870 with RSI(14) around 40, just under the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg near 81,660.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the cpi range hi at 82,065 would break the lower-highs line and bring the 50% fib near 82,120 into play.
Failure to hold back above the tue low at 80,965 re-exposes the 80,165 asia low.
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 81,870 keeps the post-CPI downtrend read intact.
The US PPI, Retail Sales and claims cluster at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read, with DXY's Asia slip below 102.00 as the backdrop.
Lower highs and lower lows after a double top, post-CPI range broken lower.
BTC rolled over from a double top at 84078, set in Tuesday's and Wednesday's London sessions. The hot US CPI print in Wednesday's NY session broke the 83055 neckline, and the post-CPI leg ran to an 80165 week low in Thursday's Asia session. Price has since dropped out of the 81300–81900 range and below the Tuesday low at 80965, with lower highs capped under EMA(20) near 81830 and RSI(14) around 22 in oversold territory.
Support: 80,164.72, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,964.84, 81,830.00, 84,078.41
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read; a soft set that eases the USD bid would test the post-CPI leg
An hourly close back above the 80965 tuesday low would turn the latest break into a failed one
Acceptance below the 80165 week low and the 80000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of EMA(20) and the lower highs trendline near the 81900 range top, close to the 38.2% fib at ~81660, would neutralise the post-CPI leg
Lower highs after double top; post-CPI range 81,290–82,065.
BTC printed a double top at 84,078, Monday's high retested Wednesday, then Wednesday's hot core CPI drove a NY-session leg lower that broke the 83,000–84,000 week range. Since then price has compressed between a 81,290 range low and an 82,065 range top, capped beneath the EMA(20) near 82,000 with intraday highs stepping lower. In the Asia session a sweep to 80,165 under Tuesday's low was reclaimed within the hour, and RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s, off oversold.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,066 range top and ema20 near 82,000 breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 61.8% fib near 82,584
Failure to hold the 81,291 range low reopens Tuesday's low at 80,965 and the 80,165 sweep low
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
02:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 28 · price 81,472.28
Lower highs; post-CPI range break, tight base above week low.
BTC broke down out of the 82,910–84,080 range after Wednesday's hot US CPI beat. The selloff into the NY session confirmed a double top at 84,078 and extended the week's lower highs from 84,258. Since then price has compressed in a tight 81,290–82,070 band under a falling EMA(20) near 82,055, with RSI(14) holding around 28 in oversold territory and the week low at 80,965 from Tuesday's Asia session sitting just below the post-CPI low.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 82,055 (also the post-CPI bounce high) opens a retest of the 82,910 range floor
Reclaim of the 82,910 range floor would undercut the double top and lower highs read
Failure to hold the 81,291 post-CPI low exposes the 80,965 week low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~10.5h) could materially shift this read
Range break lower, now a tight 81,290–82,065 band of lower highs.
Wednesday's hotter core CPI knocked BTC out of the 82,900–84,100 range it had held since Tuesday's rebound. The NY-session post-CPI drop from 83,800 to 81,550 was the dominant move of the week, and the 84,078 highs on Tuesday and Wednesday mark the top of that range. Since then price has compressed below EMA(20) under a line of lower highs, with the 82,065 bounce high capping and the overnight session low at 81,291 holding above Tuesday's week low at 80,965. RSI(14) has lifted from sub-30 readings to around 37, so downside momentum has eased without any reclaim of the broken range floor.
What it said to watch
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read given the hawkish CPI backdrop
H1 close above the 82,065 bounce high and the lower-highs line would break the post-CPI sequence
A move back above the 82,900 range floor would turn the CPI break into a false break
Failure to hold the 81,291 session low exposes the 80,965 week low
Double top at 84,078 broken lower; tight post-CPI consolidation above the week low.
The 83,000–84,080 range that formed after Tuesday's Asia-session rebound from the 80,965 week low ended in Wednesday's NY session. The hot US CPI print and broad USD strength drove a CPI leg lower of about 2,700 from the 84,078 double top. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and below the 82,890 weekly open. Since the break, BTC has compressed into an 81,350–82,065 consolidation, with each bounce capped along a lower-highs line and RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-30s.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 81,350 session low exposes the 80,965 week low
Close above the 82,065 range top and the lower-highs line would open a retracement of the CPI leg toward the 82,890 weekly open
Reclaim of the 82,976 prior range floor would neutralise the double top break
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read