BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 36 · price 81,407.35
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows, retesting session low.
The hawkish US CPI beat at 12:30 UTC broke the London range with a drop from 83817. Price has since stepped lower through NY hours, with lower highs at the 82066 ny high and the 81911 lower high. Late NY printed a fresh session low at 81350, and the 81621 bounce high capped the rebound. Price is now back near that low heading into the Asia session, with RSI(14) soft but not extreme.
Support: 81,350.41, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,621.11, 81,910.79, 82,065.62
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81350 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81000 round number
Reclaim of the 81621 bounce high and the falling trendline near 81800 would stall the downtrend read
Close above the 81911 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high structure
US Retail Sales / PPI cluster Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI breakdown.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke price down from 83,800, and NY hours extended the slide, with lower highs at the 82,065 swing high and the 81,910 lower high capping. Late in the session price swept the 81,458 prior low to a new session low at 81,350 and bounced back above it. RSI(14) is near 42 and price sits below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,910 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 81,350 session low confirms another lower low
US Retail Sales/PPI at 12:30 UTC Thu (~13h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower-high/lower-low sequence, basing at the session low.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30Z flushed BTC through the London range floor near 82976. NY hours then printed lower highs at 82065 and 81910, and a fresh session low at 81350 came late in the session. RSI(14) sits near 44 with price under both EMAs, and the 22:45 bar's rejection of the session low has so far stalled below the 81910 lower high.
Support: 81,458.29, 81,350.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81910 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain; the 82065 swing high is the next reference
Loss of the 81458 prior low and then the 81350 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A retracement capped below the 38.2% post-CPI fib near 82290 keeps the downtrend structure intact
IMF meeting from 00:00Z and the Thu 12:30Z PPI/Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs; 81458–81910 range broken lower.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30Z broke BTC from the 83800 area down through the London low, and every bounce since has capped lower: swing high 82065, then a lower high at 81910 and 81880 under the trendline. After the NY close, price slipped through the 81458 broken low to a new session low at 81350, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet at an extreme.
Support: 81,350.41, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,458.29
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 81458 broken low would mark the break below the range as a false break
A clearance of the 81910 lower high and the trendline would end the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 81350 session low leaves the 81000 round number as the next reference
IMF meeting at 00:00Z and Thursday's 12:30Z PPI / retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
Post-drop consolidation 81,450–81,910 with lower highs, now pressing the floor.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30Z broke BTC out of the 83,000–84,080 London range, a roughly 2,350-dollar slide to 81,458 by 17:45Z. Since then price has held a tight 81,450–81,910 consolidation with a lower high at 81,910 below the 82,065 bounce high. The 22:15Z bar, after NY close, printed a fresh session low at 81,449, with RSI(14) near 39.
What it said to watch
A sustained break of the 81,450 session low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 81,000 round number
An M15 close above the 81,910 lower high invalidates the drift lower inside the consolidation
A recovery through the 82,065 bounce high opens the path toward the fib 38.2 of the CPI drop near 82,355
IMF meeting at 00:00Z Thu falls in the Asia session; the 12:30Z Thu PPI/Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after post-CPI leg · RSI 45 · price 81,630.10
Lower highs above a flat post-CPI low; tightening range late in NY.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83,817 to an 81,458 post-CPI low during NY hours. The prior 82,977–84,078 range is now well overhead. Since then price has compressed between the post-CPI low and a descending trendline of lower highs (82,066 bounce high, 81,911 lower high), with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,911 lower high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 82,066 bounce high; the 82,360–82,640 fib zone of the post-CPI drop sits above that
Failure to hold the 81,511 late low and the 81,458 post-CPI low would extend the downtrend leg
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thu (~14h) could materially shift this read; thin Asia session hours precede it
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI drop now consolidating · RSI 54 · price 81,694.03
Lower highs pressing into a flat base at 81,460–81,560.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC sent BTC from 83,817 to a 81,458 session low, breaking the London-session floor near 82,980. Since then price has compressed into late NY, with a lower high at 81,911 under the 82,066 bounce high and a range floor near 81,562. It is barely 10% into the CPI drop fib, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 54.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,911 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; 82,066 bounce high is next
Loss of the 81,562 range floor exposes the 81,458 session low; a break there confirms a lower-low
A reclaim of the CPI drop fib 38.2% near 82,360 would undo the consolidation-under-pressure read
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday (~14.5h) could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 56 · price 81,826.89
Higher lows inside 81,458–81,910 range below lower highs.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the 83,050–84,080 pre-data range, and the drop ran to an 81,458 session low during NY hours. Since then price has based in a tight 81,460–81,910 range with higher lows at 81,473 and 81,562. Late in the NY session it is pressing the 81,910 lower high, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s and the bounce still under 20% of the CPI drop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,910 lower high breaks the basing range and opens the 82,065 bounce high, then the 82,611 cpi bar low
38.2% of the CPI drop sits near 82,360; holding below it keeps the bounce corrective
Failure to hold the 81,562 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 81,458 session low
US PPI, retail sales and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower lows, now compressing between 81,460 and 82,070.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC drove a CPI selloff from 83,817 to the 81,458 session low, well below the Asian range. Since late NY hours price has compressed between a higher low at 81,562 and a lower high at 81,911. RSI(14) sits near 47 and price is back above EMA20 but well under EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,911 lower high breaks the compression; the 82,066 swing high is the next cap, just above the 23.6% of the CPI selloff fib
Loss of the 81,562 higher low puts the 81,458 session low back in play; a break there extends the downtrend
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday (~15h) could materially shift this read
A DXY push through 103.00 would add pressure to the post-CPI structure
Lower highs above an 81,460 base, 81,460–81,910 range.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC flushed BTC from 83,810 through the 82,611 CPI bar low, and the selling ran to an 81,460 swing low by 17:45 UTC. Since then price has held an 81,460–81,910 base after the NY close, capped by a lower high at 82,065 and the 81,910 bounce high. RSI(14) is neutral near 51, price is just under the EMA20 and ATR is about $175.
What it said to watch
A close above the 81,910 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 82,065 lower high in play
Loss of the 81,560 late low, then the 81,460 swing low, resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Recovery into the 82,611 CPI bar low would mark a deeper retrace of the 12:30 flush
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
21:08 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after CPI drop · RSI 47 · price 81,706.02
Post-CPI lower highs against higher lows above the 81,458 NY low.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC off 83,800 and down to an 81,458 NY low. Since then price has compressed between lower highs (82,066 bounce high, then 81,911) and a higher swing low at 81,566. It sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 47 as the session rolls into the Asia open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,911 lower high breaks the compression, with the 82,066 bounce high next
Failure to hold the 81,566 swing low exposes the 81,458 NY low and resumes the post-CPI downtrend
US PPI and Retail Sales on Thu at 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
The hotter-than-forecast US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the London range, and the slide ran from 83,817 to an 81,458 session low during late NY hours. That low was retested at 81,473 and held. Bounces since have been rejected twice at the 81,911 swing high, below the 82,066 lower high. RSI(14) is near 42 and price sits back under EMA20.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 81,911 swing high and the 82,066 lower high would break the post-CPI lower-high sequence and bring the fib 38.2% of the CPI leg at 82,359 into view.
A failure to hold the 81,458 session low would extend the downtrend toward the 81,000 round number.
The Thursday 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales release (~16h away) could materially shift this read.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 83000–84078 pre-release range and drove a ~2,350-point selloff from 83817 into the 81458 session low. Late NY trade has since printed a higher low at 81651 on rising support, with price stalling under the 81911 bounce high and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 81,651.00, 81,458.00
Resistance: 81,911.00, 82,066.00, 82,611.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81651 higher low breaks rising support
Failure to hold the 81458 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above the 82066 prior bounce opens the 38.2% of the CPI selloff near 82360, with the 82611 cpi bar low above
Thursday's US PPI and retail sales (~16h) could materially shift this read
20:18 UTC
Downtrend after CPI, basing late NY · RSI 45 · price 81,875.83
Double bottom at 81,460–81,475; rising lows into 82,065 bounce high.
The hot US CPI beat at 12:30 UTC broke BTC from 83,800 to an 81,458 session low, with a lower high at 82,438 and the 83,050 cpi retest capping the slide. Late in the NY session, demand stepped in twice at 81,460–81,475, forming a double bottom. Price is now grinding up on rising lows from the 81,616 higher low and the 81,749 minor low. ATR(14) is near 190 points.
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,065 bounce high would confirm the double bottom and open the 82,438 lower high, near the 38.2% of the cpi leg fib.
A close below the 81,616 higher low breaks the rising lows trendline and puts the 81,458 session low back in focus.
A reclaim of the 83,050 cpi retest high would undo most of the post-CPI leg.
US PPI, retail sales and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) are the next USD-driven shock risk for this read.
20:05 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 47 · price 81,821.89
Lower highs from 83,817; 81,458–81,824 box.
The US CPI beat at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83,817 to the 81,458 swing low by 17:45. That move erased the Asian range (83,090–83,880) and the 84,078 London high. Late in NY hours price is holding a 81,458–81,824 box, with a small double bottom near the swing low and the range top now under test; RSI(14) is ~47.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,824 range top opens the 82,066 bounce high and the fib 38.2 near 82,360
Failure to hold the 81,458 swing low extends the post-CPI downtrend
A close back below the ema20 near 81,740 returns price to the middle of the box
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster Thu 12:30 UTC (~16.5h) could materially shift this read
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke price below the 83,090–83,880 Asian range and drove a 2,360-point slide from 83,817 to a session low at 81,458, with lower highs at 82,066 and 81,811. Late in the NY session price is basing in an 81,460–81,810 box under the lower-high trendline and EMA20 (~81,830), RSI(14) near 41.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,811 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline; 82,066 lower high is next
Failure to hold the 81,458 session low extends the post-CPI downtrend toward the 81,000 round number
Recovery through 82,360 (fib 38.2 of the CPI leg) would mark more than a shallow retracement
US Retail Sales and PPI Thu 12:30 UTC (~17h) could materially shift this read
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke BTC out of its 82,976–84,078 pre-CPI range and dropped it to an 81,458 session low, with lower highs through NY hours. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is compressing above 81,460–81,540 and edging over the post-CPI trendline. It remains below EMA20 near 81,850.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,811 swing high, then the 82,066 lower high, breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81,458 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 81,000 round number
Any rebound faces the 38.2% fib near 82,360, with the pre-CPI low at 82,976 above it
US Retail Sales/PPI Thu 12:30 UTC (~17h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs from 83050, tight base 81458–81760 in late NY.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC reversed the pre-release push to 83817. Price fell through the Asian range low near 83090 to a 81458 session low, with the 82066 lower high capping the bounce. Late in the NY session, price is basing between 81458 and the 81760 base top, below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 81,458.29, 81,000.00
Resistance: 82,065.62
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81760 base top exposes the 82066 lower high, near the 23.6% retracement of the cpi drop
Failure to hold the 81458 session low and base floor extends the lower-low sequence toward the 81000 round number
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI / Retail Sales / Claims cluster (~17h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Post-CPI range break, lower-high/lower-low chain, tight base above 81458.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC out of its 82976–84078 London range, with a ~$1,200 drop in a single bar and a lower-high chain through NY hours down to an 81458 session low. Late NY trade is consolidating between 81458 and 81720, with RSI(14) back near mid-range and the 82065 lower high capping the bounce.
Support: 81,458.29, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 81458 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 81000 round number next
Close above the 82065 lower high breaks the post-CPI descending sequence
Recovery back above the 82976 range floor would undo the CPI range break
Fed-speaker reaction to CPI and USD near DXY 103.00 could move this read
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales (~17h) are the next event risk for this structure
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 36 · price 81,554.19
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI drop; tight range above the session low.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83,817 through the Asian range low. The selloff extended to a session low of 81,458, and the 17:00 UTC bounce met rejection at 82,066 for a lower high. Late in NY hours price is compressing just above the session low, with RSI(14) near 36 and both EMAs overhead.
What it said to watch
A break below the 81,458 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
A close above the 82,066 lower high breaks the post-CPI trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 83,050 post-CPI high would neutralise the CPI selloff structure
The Thu 12:30 UTC Retail Sales/PPI/Claims cluster (~18h out) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows, compressing above session low.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the pre-CPI 82,980–84,080 range in a single ~1,200-dollar bar. NY hours have since printed lower highs at the 83,050 bounce high and the 82,066 lower high, plus a fresh session low at 81,458. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 39, and late-NY bars are compressing just under the descending lower-highs line after a muted Beige Book.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,458 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
Recovery above the 82,066 lower high breaks the post-CPI sequence, with the 83,050 bounce high next above
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower-high / lower-low chain below Asian range.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke BTC below the 83,090–83,880 Asian range, about 1,200 off the 83,817 high. NY session has since printed lower highs at 83,050 and 82,065, with a fresh session low at 81,458. RSI(14) near 38 is soft but not stretched, and price is holding just above the session low with little reaction to the Beige Book.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,065 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain and brings the 82,310–82,370 cpi low zone into play as resistance
Failure to hold the 81,458 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 81,000 round number
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI / retail sales cluster could materially shift this read via USD and yields
18:05 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 37 · price 81,521.22
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC off its 83,800 pre-data high and through the London low at 82,977. NY hours have produced a steady stair-step of lower highs, the latest a 82,066 swing high at 17:00 UTC, before a fresh session low at 81,458 with RSI(14) near 37 and not yet oversold.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 82,066 swing high and the lower-high trendline would break the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81,458 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
The fib 38.2% at ~82,360 sits just above the 82,310 prior low from 13:15 UTC, an area to watch for rejection on any rebound
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC is due now; hawkish inflation language alongside a firm USD could extend the post-CPI leg
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI drop basing · RSI 40 · price 81,712.01
Lower highs since 12:30 UTC; tight base above 81,540 session low.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke BTC below the Asian range, roughly 83,090–83,880, with a 1,200-dollar bar that left the cpi bar low at 82,611 as overhead supply. Lower highs have stepped down through NY hours, and the latest bounce high at 82,066 stalled near the 23.6% level of the cpi drop fib. Price is now drifting back toward the 81,540 session low late in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 40.
What it said to watch
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC is due within the next bar or two and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 81,540 session low extends the lower-high/lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
Close above the 82,066 bounce high breaks the lower highs trendline and opens a retest of the 82,611 cpi bar low
Rejection at the 83,050 lower high would keep the post-CPI downtrend structure intact
17:32 UTC
Downtrend after the CPI break, momentum stalling · RSI 42 · price 81,854.86
Lower range under the Asian range; lower high at 82066, higher low at 81747.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC about 2,200 off the pre-print spike near 83,800. Price broke below the Asian range and the 82,977 London low, with the 83,051 post-CPI high capping the rebound. Late NY hours have built a tighter range: the 81,539 session low held, an 82,066 lower high capped the bounce, and the 81,747 higher low is the latest pivot, with RSI(14) near 42.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,066 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 82,611 CPI bar low
Failure to hold the 81,747 higher low, then the 81,539 session low, extends the post-CPI downtrend
Fib 38.2% of the CPI leg sits near 82,410, just under the CPI bar low
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read alongside USD and yields
17:17 UTC
Downtrend after CPI, basing near lows · RSI 39 · price 81,959.74
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows; tight 81540–82066 base.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC flipped a pre-release push to 83817 into a 1,200-point flush. Lower highs followed through the NY session down to a session low at 81539. Price is now basing in an 81540–82066 band below the ema20 (~82140), with RSI(14) recovering to ~39.
Support: 81,812.00, 81,539.00
Resistance: 82,066.00, 82,140.00, 82,438.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 82066 bounce high and the ema20 near 82140 would print the first higher high since the CPI drop. The next marker is the 82438 swing high, near the 38.2% of the post-CPI fib.
Failure to hold the 81812 minor low exposes the 81539 session low. A break there resumes the lower-low sequence.
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read via USD and hike-odds repricing.
17:06 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off day low · RSI 42 · price 82,013.68
Post-CPI lower-highs, micro higher lows off 81539.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83817 to 82611 in a single bar. The selloff broke the Asian range and the 82977 london low, and the CPI leg ran to a 81539 day low at 16:15 UTC. Price is now carving small higher lows from 81812 and pressing the 82030 lower high, just under the 23.6% retrace with RSI(14) recovering to ~42.
Support: 81,811.90, 81,539.20
Resistance: 82,029.66, 82,438.21, 82,976.62
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82030 lower high puts the 82409 38.2% fib and 82438 swing high in play
Loss of the 81812 higher low reopens the 81539 day low
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 82977 london low would negate the CPI breakdown
Lower-high sequence since CPI; twin low at 81,540–81,550 with minor neckline break.
The hotter US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83,817 through the 82,977 london low. It printed lower highs into an 81,539 session low as the USD firmed. After London close, a twin low at 81,540–81,550 held and price is lifting toward the 82,030 swing high, which sits near the 23.6% retracement of the CPI drop fib, with RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s to ~40.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,030 swing high breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain
Reclaiming the 82,310 cpi shelf puts the 38.2% retracement near 82,410 and the 82,977 london low in play
Failure to hold the 81,539 session low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 81,000 round number next
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows, trading below the Asian range and prior-day low.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC turned a push toward 83,817 into a roughly 2,280-dollar CPI drop. The slide cut through the Asian range low and the prior-day low after London's 84,078 false break, and lower highs have capped every bounce since. Ranges are compressing into the 81,539 session low after London close, with RSI(14) near 32 and not yet oversold.
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 82,030 lower high would break the post-CPI lower-high chain
A loss of the 81,539 session low exposes the 81,500 round number
The 82,310 broken low and 83,050 bounce high bracket the 38.2–61.8% zone of the CPI drop fib
The Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Thursday's PPI and retail sales follow at 12:30 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI range break.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke price out of the overnight 82,900–84,080 range. The 1,200-dollar CPI bar started a chain of lower highs that ran into an 81,551 session low during NY hours. Price is now basing just above that low with RSI(14) near 29, and the 82,030 lower high caps the descending line.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,030 lower high breaks the descending sequence and opens the fib 38.2 near 82,420
Failure to hold the 81,551 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
Reclaim of the 82,910 prior low (Oct 13 low) would put price back inside the broken overnight range
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range, compressing near the session low.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC about 1,200 points off the 83,817 pre-release high in one bar, breaking the london low at 82,977 and the Asian range floor. Through the NY session it has printed lower highs at 83,050 and the 82,030 lower high into a session low at 81,551. Candles are now compressing with RSI(14) near 29.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 81,551 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 psych level
An M15 close above the 82,030 lower high breaks the NY-session lower-high sequence and exposes the 82,310 broken low, near the 38.2% of the CPI leg fib
A retracement into the 50–61.8% zone of the CPI leg fib (82,684–82,951) meets the 82,977 london low; rejection there keeps the downtrend read intact
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows, retesting session low.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke BTC out of its 82976–84078 pre-CPI range. NY session has since printed a chain of lower highs from 83817 down to an 81604 session low. Price is now retesting that low with RSI(14) near 26 and ATR roughly doubled from pre-release levels.
Support: 81,604.13, 81,500.00
Resistance: 82,030.00, 82,310.35
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82030 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain and the trendline from 83050
Losing the 81604 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 81500 round number
Reclaiming the 82310 broken low and the 38.2% of the CPI drop fib (~82450) would turn the bounce into a deeper retracement, with the pre-cpi low at 82976 above
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, selling pace slowing · RSI 33 · price 81,848.86
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC produced a $1,200 bar that broke the 83,090 Asian low and the range below it. NY session has since stepped down in a lower-high chain to an 81,604 session low. The last bars show an 81,760 higher low with RSI(14) near 33, as price compresses under the descending trendline from 82,440.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 82,030 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain
Loss of the 81,760 higher low exposes the 81,604 session low; a break there resumes the decline
A rebound into 82,450 (38.2% of the post-CPI fib) and the 82,611 CPI bar low would test the breakdown area; the 83,090 Asian low sits above
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC (0.3% vs 0.2%) knocked BTC from 83,817 to an 81,604 session low. The drop broke the 83,090–83,879 Asian range and the old floor near 82,980, and the early-NY bounce to 83,050 was rejected just above that floor. Lower highs at the 82,438 swing high and the 82,122 lower high keep the falling line from the CPI spike intact. RSI(14) sits at 33 with price below both EMAs, and the 38.2% retrace of the cpi leg lines up with the swing high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,122 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 82,438 swing high (38.2% of the cpi leg) and the falling line near 82,280 would mark a deeper retracement
Failure to hold the 81,604 session low extends the leg toward the 81,500 round number
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Old floor at 82,980 is the 61.8% retrace of the cpi leg; an area to watch for rejection if price retraces that far
15:05 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI leg extending · RSI 31 · price 81,855.85
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC; range break below Asian range and prior-day low.
London's spike to the 84078 session high was rejected inside the 83090–83880 Asian range. The hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC then broke the range and the 82910 prior-day low, and the CPI leg ran to an 81641 session low. A lower-high chain is capping each bounce, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet oversold, while the CPI leg's fib 38.2 and fib 61.8 sit overhead.
Support: 81,641.09, 81,500.00
Resistance: 82,028.66, 82,472.00, 82,986.00
What it said to watch
Holding below the 82029 lower high keeps the post-CPI lower-high chain intact; a close above it shifts the read to a retracement of the CPI leg
Loss of the 81641 session low extends the leg toward the 81500 round number
Reclaim of the 82472 fib 38.2 opens the path to the 82986 fib 61.8, which sits near the prior-day low zone
Bowman (14:55 UTC, under way) and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI leg extending · RSI 28 · price 81,798.92
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC; Asian range and prior-day low broken.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC off the 83,817 pre-CPI high, through the 83,090 Asian range low and the 82,910 prior-day low. The NY session has printed a lower high at 83,050 since then, and price is pinned near the 81,731 session low with RSI(14) near 28.
What it said to watch
Bowman at 14:55 UTC could extend or reverse the post-CPI leg; the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC is the next risk
Failure to hold the 81,731 session low exposes the 81,500 round number
A recovery back above the 82,310 post-CPI low would stall the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 83,050 lower high, through the lower-highs trendline, invalidates the downtrend read
A bounce into the 82,530–82,770 band (fib 38.2–50%) is the first area to monitor for rejection
Overnight range broken lower, lower highs and lower lows since 12:15 UTC.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC reversed the pre-CPI high at 83,817 and dropped price through the overnight lows near 82,910. The move extended to a session low at 81,828 in the first hour of NY. The rebound stalled at 83,050, a lower high at the 61.8% fib, and RSI(14) near 29 is now oversold with price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81,828 session low exposes the 81,500 round number
Recovery above the 82,310 post-CPI low puts the 82,590–83,050 fib zone back in play
A close above the 83,050 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could extend or unwind the CPI move
24h range broken lower at CPI; lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC dropped BTC from the 83,817 pre-release high through the Asian range low near 83,090 and yesterday's 82,910 low, to a session low at 81,941 early in the NY session. The rebound stalled at the 83,050 bounce high and was rejected, so the post-CPI fib and the lower-highs line both cap price above. RSI(14) is near 32, soft but not oversold, and ATR(14) has expanded to about $330.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,000 round number and the 81,941 session low would extend the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 82,310 prior low reopens the 82,910 yday low and the 50% retracement of the post-CPI fib near 82,880
An M15 close above the 83,050 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and invalidates the post-CPI down-leg read
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from 83,817 straight through the 82,910 range floor that had held through the Asian range and London. The 13:30 bounce stalled at the 83,050 bounce high and sold off to a fresh session low at 82,226 in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82,910 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 82,226 session low exposes the 82,000 round number
A move through the 83,050 bounce high breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence and the cpi trendline
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC could materially shift this read; Beige Book follows at 18:00 UTC
24h range floor broken on CPI; NY bounce retesting it from below.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC from the 83,817 pre-CPI high to an 82,310 post-CPI low, breaking the 24h range floor near 82,910 that had held since yesterday's NY session. The early NY bounce off a higher low at 82,597 is stalling into that range floor and the 38.2% of the CPI drop around 82,885, with RSI(14) near 41.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82,910 range floor negates the breakdown and opens the pre-cpi base near 83,400, with the 83,817 pre-CPI high above
Failure to hold the 82,597 higher low exposes the 82,310 post-CPI low
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
24h range floor broken, lower low at 82310, corrective bounce below the break.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC flipped the pre-release pop at 83817 (pre-cpi high) into a 1,500-point CPI drop to 82310. The move broke the 82910–82977 range floor that had held through Asia and London. The first-hour NY bounce to 82720 sits just under that floor and the 38.2% retracement (~82885), with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 82,310.00, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,910.00, 83,065.00, 83,817.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 82910 range floor reopens the 83065 post-cpi hi, which lines up with the 50% retracement of the CPI drop
Failure to hold the 82310 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82000 round number
Rejection at the 82910 range floor would mark it as new resistance after the break
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
24h range broken to the downside; lower low at 82,347 after the CPI release.
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC reversed the push to the 83,817 pre-cpi high. The ~1,200-point drop that followed broke the 82,977 london low and the 82,910 prior low that had held the 24h range. Price is holding just above the 82,347 cpi low with RSI(14) ~35. The 38.2% fib of the CPI drop lines up with the 82,910 prior low.
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 82,910–82,977 (prior low / london low) would turn the range break into a false break
Failure at the 82,347 cpi low extends the post-CPI leg toward the 82,000 round number
Rejection near the 38.2% fib at the prior low keeps the CPI drop intact
Fed's Bowman (14:55 UTC) and the Beige Book (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:06 UTC
Downtrend after CPI flush, early NY · RSI 36 · price 82,726.90
Range break lower, lower highs since London open.
Hot core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC out of the 24h 82910–84080 range. The move left a cpi low at 82611 and a close below both the prior low and the asian low, with RSI(14) near 36. Price is sitting in the lower part of the cpi drop fib during the first hour of NY, and lower highs from the London-open rejection at 84078 to the pre-cpi high at 83817 remain intact.
Support: 82,611.02, 82,500.00
Resistance: 82,910.00, 83,090.00, 83,816.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82910 prior low would turn the CPI break into a false break
Failure to hold the 82611 cpi low exposes the 82500 round number
Reclaim of the 83090 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 83817 pre-cpi high breaks the lower highs line
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The 12:30 UTC CPI bar erased the pre-release push to 83817 and broke through the prior low at 82910 and the London low at 82977, setting a window low at 82611. Price is holding just above that CPI low into the London-NY transition with RSI(14) near 39, and the old range floor at 82910–82977 now sits overhead.
Support: 82,611.02
Resistance: 82,910.00, 82,977.00, 83,072.00
What it said to watch
Recapture of the prior low and London low (82910–82977) would mark the CPI break as a false break
M15 close below the 82611 CPI low extends the lower-low sequence
38.2% fib of the CPI drop at ~83072 is the first retracement marker overhead
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from London open high; release bar broke the 24h range floor.
London open false-broke the Asian range high with a spike to 84078 and reversed. The 12:30 UTC bar, which coincided with the scheduled US CPI release against a firm dollar backdrop, then dropped about 1,150 dollars from the 83817 release high to the 82654 cpi low, taking out the prior low at 82910. Price closed at 82899, just under that prior low, with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR expanding sharply.
Support: 82,653.98, 82,500.00
Resistance: 82,909.69, 83,400.00, 83,816.70
What it said to watch
A close back above the prior low at 82910 would leave the cpi low at 82654 as a rejection wick inside the old range
Failure to hold the cpi low at 82654 exposes the round number at 82500
Reclaim of the pre-cpi base near 83400 (61.8% of the release leg) would neutralise the drop; lower highs trendline from 84078 caps above the release high
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could extend or unwind the CPI repricing
London spike above the Asian high reversed to 82,977; higher lows since, range top reclaimed.
London ran the Asian high at 83,879 to 84,078, rejected, and slid to 82,977. That low held above yesterday's NY lows. Higher lows since then fed the 12:00 UTC jump through the 83,465 range top, putting price above the 61.8% retrace of the London drop with US CPI minutes away. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) about $170.
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~15 min): core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast is the swing factor, and a hot core is the flagged headwind via firmer USD and yields
An M15 close back below the 83,465 range top turns the 12:00 jump into a false break and puts the higher lows line in focus
Acceptance above the 83,879 Asian high reopens the 84,078 London high
A break of the 82,977 London low would mark a lower-low and break the intraday higher lows sequence
12:05 UTC
Two-way, flat after failed London spike · RSI 49 · price 83,426.13
Rising lows inside 83283–83465 consolidation, mid-range of the 24h span.
London open pushed through the asian high at 83879 to a london high of 84078, then failed. The false break unwound to the london low at 82977. Price has since built rising lows into a tight range under the 83465 session cap, pinned at EMA20/EMA50 and the 38.2% fib of the London drop, with RSI(14) flat near 49 into the London-NY transition ahead of US CPI.
Support: 83,283.28, 82,976.62, 82,909.69
Resistance: 83,465.08, 83,878.63, 84,078.41
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~25 min), with core m/m against the 0.2% forecast, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 83465 session cap and the 50% fib at ~83528 opens the path back to the asian high at 83879
A break below 83283 ends the rising lows; failure at the london low (82977) exposes the prior low at 82910
11:47 UTC
Range, two-sided after London reversal · RSI 48 · price 83,457.09
Asian range broken both ways in London; micro higher lows since 10:00 UTC.
London pushed through the Asian high to the 84078 London high and reversed, then dipped under the Asian low to the 82977 London low before recovering. That leaves a false break on both sides, with price back mid-range at 83457, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the London drop. Rising lows since 10:00 UTC are pressing the 83459 micro high, and the range is compressing in late London ahead of US CPI.
Support: 83,283.00, 82,977.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,459.00, 83,879.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~45m): core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 83459 micro high and the 83528 50% retrace opens the path to the 83879 Asian high
Break of the rising lows at 83283 exposes the 82977 London low and the 82910 prior low
11:32 UTC
Range-bound, momentum soft after London reversal · RSI 43 · price 83,319.24
Two-sided sweep of the Asian range, now compressing mid-range.
London open pushed through the 83879 Asian high to a 84078 London high, then reversed and swept below the Asian range to an 82977 London low. Late London is now compressing near 83320, capped by the 83459 micro high around the 38.2% of the London leg fib (~83398), with RSI(14) at 43 and price below both EMAs ahead of US CPI.
Support: 83,139.00, 82,977.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,459.00, 83,879.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~1h): core m/m vs 0.2% f/c could materially shift this read, with Bowman at 14:55 UTC
M15 close above the 83459 micro high and the 50% of the London leg fib (~83528) reopens the 83879 Asian high
Loss of the 83139 swing low exposes the 82977 London low and the 82910 prior low
London swept both sides of the Asian range; higher lows off 82977.
London open briefly broke above the 83879 Asian high with a spike to the 84078 London high. The false break reversed through the Asian low to the 82977 London low, just above the 82910 prior low from yesterday's US session. Price has since printed higher lows back to the 38.2% of that drop near 83400, flat on both EMAs and RSI(14) neutral, while the dollar stays firm into US CPI.
Support: 83,283.00, 83,140.00, 82,977.00
Resistance: 83,528.00, 83,879.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~75 min), with core m/m the swing factor, could materially shift this read
A close below the 83283 higher low breaks the recovery line and puts the 83140 swing low back in play
A reclaim of the 83528 50% fib of the London drop reopens the Asian high at 83879
Acceptance below the 82977 London low and the 82910 prior low would end the two-way range read
11:05 UTC
Two-way range, recovering off London low · RSI 49 · price 83,353.21
London false break above Asian high reversed into a sweep below Asian low; lower highs since 84078.
London pushed through the 83878 asian high to 84078 and fully reversed, then slid through the Asian low to a 82976 london low before recovering. Price is now pinned under the 83424 recent cap and just below the 38.2% of the London swing fib, with both EMAs overhead and RSI(14) neutral near 49 as the market holds into US CPI.
Support: 83,139.44, 82,909.69
Resistance: 83,424.13, 83,591.94
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read; core m/m vs 0.2% f/c is the swing factor
M15 close above the 83424 recent cap and the 50% fib near 83528 opens a retest of the 83592 open high
Failure to hold the 83139 morning low re-exposes the 82976 london low and the 82910 prior low
Acceptance back above the 83878 asian high would negate the false-break read
False break above Asian high, lower highs since London, tentative higher low.
Early London trade broke above the 83879 asian high and printed a 84078 session high, then reversed hard. Price cut through the Asian range to a 82977 session low, which held above yesterday's 82910 prior low. Price has since built a higher low at 83275 and is pressing the 38.2% fib near 83398, level with EMA20, as a firm dollar ahead of CPI caps the tape; ATR(14) is about $195.
Support: 83,275.00, 82,977.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,398.00, 83,879.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 83398 opens the 50% retrace near 83528, with the asian high at 83879 above
Loss of the 83275 higher low returns focus to the 82977 session low and the 82910 prior low
Recapture of the 84078 session high would negate the false break read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~1h45m), core vs 0.2% m/m f/c, could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Two-way, lower highs since London open · RSI 47 · price 83,353.21
London false break above Asian high, sweep of Asian low, now back inside the Asian range.
London open spiked above the Asian high to the london high at 84,078, then reversed through the whole Asian range. Price briefly broke the Asian low to the london low at 82,977 before recovering. It is now pressing the fib 38.2% near 83,400, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 47 as the dollar stays firm into CPI.
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~2h), core m/m vs 0.2% f/c, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the fib 38.2% at 83,400 opens the 50% retrace near 83,530
Prior lows near 83,140 are first support; a close back below them reopens the london low at 82,977
Failure to hold 82,977 exposes yesterday's ny low at 82,910
Reclaim of the asian high at 83,879 would negate the London false break
London false break above Asian high, full fade, then a sweep low and reclaim; back inside the Asian range.
The London push through the 83,879 Asian high to an 84,078 session high failed and fully retraced. The 10:00 UTC bar then swept to 82,977, just above yesterday's 82,910 prior low, and closed back near 83,280. Price sits below EMA20/50 between the 83,140 pullback low and the 83,420 breakdown shelf, RSI(14) neutral near 47, with a firm dollar keeping BTC heavy into CPI.
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~2h): core vs the 0.2% m/m forecast could materially shift this read; Bowman follows at 14:55 UTC
A close back above the 83,420 breakdown shelf puts the 38.2–50% retrace of the London fade (83,400–83,530) in play
Failure to hold the 83,140 pullback low reopens the 82,977 sweep low and the 82,910 prior low
Only a return above the 83,879 Asian high would negate the false-break read at the 84,078 session high
10:05 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a broad range · RSI 42 · price 83,177.40
London false break above the Asian high, full reversal back to the lower half of the Asian range.
London open took out the Asian high at 83,878 and printed a london high of 84,078. The move failed and price gave back the whole leg to a double-tapped london low at 83,139, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42 as a firm dollar weighs into US CPI.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 83,139 exposes the asian low at 83,089, then the prior low at 82,910 from the NY session
Recovery through the fib 38.2 at ~83,498 would ease the false-break read
Asian high at 83,878 and london high at 84,078 cap the range, and a close back above the latter voids the rejection
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h), core m/m vs 0.2% f/c, could materially shift this read; Bowman follows at 14:55 UTC
Failed London breakout above Asian high, sequence of lower highs into session low.
The London open took out the asian high at 83,879 and spiked to a london high of 84,078. That move fully reversed, with lower highs every bar since. Price now sits on the session low at 83,139, just above the asian low at 83,089, with RSI(14) near 39 and the firm USD tone ahead of CPI as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
A break below the 83,089 asian low exposes the 82,910 swing low from the NY session
A recovery above the 83,479 lower high and the 38.2% fib near 83,500 interrupts the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 83,879 asian high revives the London breakout and reverses the false-break read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and Bowman at 14:55 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday down-leg after failed London breakout · RSI 40 · price 83,212.36
False break above Asian high, lower highs since, London session low taken out.
London pushed above the Asian high at 83,880 to a London high of 84,078. The move then fully reversed, printing lower highs bar by bar, and price has slipped below the London low at 83,290 into the lower half of the Asian range. A firm USD into today's US CPI frames the fade, and RSI(14) sits near 40.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the Asian low at 83,090 exposes the prior low at 82,910
Reclaim of the London low at 83,290 would stall the reversal leg
Close back above the Asian high at 83,880 negates the false break
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
London false break above the Asian high, price back mid-range.
London pushed through the Asian high at 83,878 to a session high of 84,078, then was rejected. It gave the move back to a London low of 83,309 within three bars. Price is now back in the middle of the Asian range near 83,400, just under the ema20 (~83,480) with RSI(14) flat near 49, as a firm dollar and pre-CPI caution keep the tape choppy.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,878 asian high negates the false break read
Failure to hold the 83,309 london low exposes the 83,089 asian low, then the 82,910 prior low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 83,480 would put the 83,467 61.8% retrace of the Asian low–session high fib back in play
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
09:06 UTC
Range-bound, sharp London rejection · RSI 47 · price 83,410.14
False break above Asian high, back inside 83090–83878 range.
The first hour of London pushed through the 83878 Asian high to a session high at 84078, then gave it all back to an 83309 london low within 45 minutes. Price now sits near 83410, below the 83590 range top, close to the 61.8% fib of the 82910–84078 advance and just under EMA20/50. RSI(14) is neutral at 47, and USD firmness into CPI is the backdrop.
Support: 83,309.25, 83,089.50, 82,909.69
Resistance: 84,078.41
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83309 london low exposes the 83090 asian low
Reclaim of the 83590 range top puts the 83878 asian high back in play; the 84078 session high caps above
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print is the main risk to the 82910 swing low
London-open false break above the Asian high, reversed into the 83290–83590 range.
London open spiked through the asian high at 83878 to a 84078 spike high, then gave back about 80% of the move within two bars. Price sits at 83440 under both EMAs, back inside the 83290–83590 range. The higher lows trendline from the 82910 prior low held on a test near 83345, as the firm-dollar tone into today's CPI caps upside so far.
Support: 83,290.00, 83,050.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,590.00, 83,878.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 83590 range top reopens the asian high at 83878
Loss of the 83290 swing low breaks the higher lows chain and exposes the 83050 asian low, then the 82910 prior low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NY double bottom; Asian high swept.
London open ran the Asian high at 83,879 to a session high of 84,078. The 08:00 UTC bar closed back below that Asian high, and price is now holding the 38.2% retrace of the London leg near 83,777. The higher-low chain from yesterday's NY double bottom at 82,910 is intact, with the dollar slipping for a second day into CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,879 Asian high negates the rejection and reopens the 84,078 session high
Loss of the 83,516 break base and the rising trendline (~83,340) breaks the higher-low chain toward the 83,289 swing low
A break of the 83,090 Asian low would undo the overnight advance
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, breakout leg extending · RSI 64 · price 83,900.60
Higher lows since late NY; London open broke above the Asian range high.
The London open bar broke above the 83879 Asian high and spiked to an 84078 session high. Price is holding just above the old range top, well clear of the ema20 near 83550, and RSI(14) is around 64, not stretched. A rising trendline from the 83090 Asian low through the 83290 swing low frames the higher-low chain. There is no BTC-specific driver; the move is tracking a softer USD ahead of US CPI.
Support: 83,879.00, 83,550.00, 83,290.00
Resistance: 84,000.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 83879 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 84000 round number and the 84078 session high extends the breakout leg; the fib of 83290–84078 maps pullback depth if not
A break of the rising trendline and the 83290 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs 0.2% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 83,879 Asian high, higher lows from 83,090.
The Asian session rallied from the 83,090 Asian low to an 83,879 Asian high. Price then gave back about 75% of that leg to an 83,289 swing low, with each lower high stepping down (83,810, then 83,590). At the London open price sits mid-range near 83,540 with RSI(14) neutral, and the higher-lows line from 83,090 is still intact as a firm USD holds moves contained ahead of US CPI.
What it said to watch
Close above the 83,590 lower high breaks the post-Asia sequence of lower highs and reopens the 83,879 Asian high
Break of the 83,289 swing low and the higher-lows line exposes the 83,090 Asian low, then the 82,910 24h low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC could jolt the London session range
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs 0.2% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 83878 Asian high; 83289 swing low holding.
BTC faded from the 83878 asian high into London open, capped by a lower high near 83590. The early-London dip to the 83289 swing low held, and price sits at the 61.8% retrace of the overnight rally, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 38. A firm USD into today's US CPI keeps the tape heavy.
Support: 83,289.28, 82,909.69
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83289 swing low exposes the asian low at 83089, then the 82910 day low
M15 close above the 83590 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 83878 asian high
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Short-term downtrend from asian high, momentum soft · RSI 41 · price 83,425.13
Lower highs since asian high, london low swept and reclaimed, mid asian range.
The Asian session rally from 83089 to the 83878 asian high has faded into a chain of lower highs. London open swept to an 83289 london low and reclaimed it. Price is at 83425, near the 61.8% asian rally fib, just under EMA50 and below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41 as BTC drifts with a firm USD into CPI.
Support: 83,289.28, 82,909.69
Resistance: 83,588.95, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83289 london low confirms a lower-low and puts the 83089 asian low back in focus, then the 82910 ny low
M15 close above the 83589 lower high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 83878 asian high, with the 84077 prior high beyond
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~5h, core vs 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the Asian high, retracing the Asia leg.
The Asia session rallied from 83,050 to the 83,879 asian high. Since then, lower highs have carried price back into the 50–61.8% fib zone. The London open bar swung 83,289–83,589 and settled near 83,420, below EMA20 and pinned on EMA50, with RSI(14) at a neutral 43 and a firm USD backdrop ahead of CPI.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83,289 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 83,090 asian low
Holding the 61.8% fib at 83,366 keeps the move a retracement of the Asia leg
An M15 close above the 83,589 lower high breaks the pullback line and reopens the 83,879 asian high, with the 84,077 prior high above
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the Asian high pressing into a rising trendline of higher lows.
Into London open BTC has faded from the 83,879 Asian high through a lower high at 83,592. Price is retesting the rising trendline off the 83,089 Asian low, between the 61.8% and 78.6% retrace of the Asian leg, and sits just above the 83,300 swing low. A firm dollar into US CPI keeps the move inside the 82,910 24h low to 84,078 24h high range, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,300 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline, opening the 83,089 Asian low
Reclaim of the 83,592 lower high shifts focus back to the 83,879 Asian high and the 84,078 24h high
Loss of the 83,089 Asian low exposes the 82,910 24h low
Fed's Bowman (09:40 UTC) and US CPI (12:30 UTC, core the swing factor) could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Pullback within a 24h range · RSI 43 · price 83,436.11
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high.
The Asia session rally from the 83089.50 Asian low was rejected at the 83878.63 Asian high, and has since printed a string of lower highs, the latest at 83591.94. Price sits just above the fib 61.8 near 83391, below EMA20 and hugging EMA50 heading into London open, with a firm USD into today's CPI as the backdrop.
Support: 83,390.95, 83,300.26, 83,089.50
Resistance: 83,591.94, 83,878.63, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
A close below the 83300.26 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 83089.50 asian low
Recovery above the 83591.94 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and reopens the 83878.63 asian high
Prior high at 84077.41 caps the 24h range; acceptance above it would mark a range break
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Contraction between lower highs and a rising trendline, mid Asian range.
The Asian rally from the 83,048 asian low stalled at the 83,878 asian high. Since then price has printed lower highs into 83,592 while holding a rising trendline, and the 83,300 swing low sits near the 61.8% retrace. Price is compressing just under the 50% level (~83,464) ahead of London open, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44, while a firm dollar into today's US CPI keeps the bounce contained.
What it said to watch
A close below the 83,300 swing low and the rising trendline would expose the 83,048 asian low
A close above the 83,592 lower high breaks the descending sequence, with the 83,878 asian high next
The 24h range runs from the 84,077 prior high down to the 82,910 ny low, which held twice in NY
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 83,879 Asian high; 83,300 session low bid.
The Asia rally ran from the 83,090 Asian low to the 83,879 Asian high. Price then printed a lower high at 83,810 and slid to an 83,300 session low, a deep retracement of the move. The 06:00 UTC bar rejected that low and reclaimed 83,550, leaving price mid-range with RSI(14) near 54 before London open as a firm USD into today's CPI keeps the tape two-way.
What it said to watch
A close below the 83,300 session low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 83,090 Asian low, then the 82,910 prior low.
A recovery through the 83,810 lower high and the 83,879 Asian high breaks the lower highs and brings the 84,077 prior high into view.
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read.
06:05 UTC
Range, Asian rally fading · RSI 52 · price 83,435.12
Lower highs off the Asian high, rising support from the Asian low intact.
Late Asia session, about an hour before London open. The Asian rally from 83,090 stalled at 83,879, below yesterday's 84,077 London-morning high, and has faded through the 83,810 lower high into the 50–61.8% retrace. Price sits below EMA20 and is hugging EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 52. Rising support from the Asian low held again at the 83,350 swing low, and the 83,579 minor high is now capping.
What it said to watch
A break of the 83,350 swing low and the rising support line exposes the 83,147 higher low and the 83,090 Asian low
Recovery above the 83,579 minor high and the 83,810 lower high reopens the 83,879 Asian high
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower high at 83810 under the 83879 Asian high; price holding above the 83369 swing low.
The Asia session pushed BTC out of the overnight 83090–83610 band to an 83879 Asian high. A lower high at 83810 then failed, and the drop to an 83369 swing low has pulled price back to the 50% retracement of the Asian advance, just under EMA20. A firm dollar ahead of today's US CPI keeps follow-through thin, and the prior high at 84077 still caps the 24h range.
Support: 83,369.19, 83,089.50
Resistance: 83,809.70, 83,878.63, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83369 swing low exposes the 83090 Asian low and the rising lows line
Close back above the 83810 lower high reopens the 83879 asian high and the 84077 prior high
Fed's Bowman at 12:40 broker time could shift the read during London hours
US CPI at 15:30 broker time (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Intraday rebound, pausing below Asian high · RSI 58 · price 83,544.00
Higher low at 83369 inside 82910–84077 24h range.
Late Asia session: price rallied from 83148 to the 83879 Asian high, set a lower high at 83810, then dipped to an 83369 swing low that held as a higher low near the 61.8% retrace. Price is now steadying around the 50% level and EMA20 near 83510, still inside the 24h range set by yesterday's 84077 high and the 82910 low printed in NY hours as the dollar stayed firm into CPI.
Support: 83,369.00, 83,090.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,810.00, 83,879.00, 84,077.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83369 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 83090 asian low
An M15 close above the 83810 lower high and the 83879 asian high reopens the 84077 24h high
A break below 83090 puts the 82910 24h low back in play
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Asian rally capped; lower high at 83,810, retracing toward 61.8%.
Late in the Asia session, the rally from the 83,090 Asian low stalled at the 83,879 Asian high. A lower high at 83,810 then led to a ~300-dollar drop, with the pullback low at 83,369 tagging the 61.8% fib. Price sits below EMA20 and above EMA50, RSI(14) is neutral near 48, and the dollar is firm into US CPI.
What it said to watch
Close below the 83,369 pullback low and 61.8% fib exposes the 83,090 Asian low, then the 82,910 prior low
Recovery above the 83,810 lower high reopens the 83,879 Asian high and the 84,077 prior high
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
05:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 61 · price 83,640.89
Higher lows through Asia, consolidating 83,547–83,879.
Asia session built higher lows off the 83,048 low and broke out of yesterday's NY range to an 83,879 Asian high before stalling. The 83,547 swing low near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian leg is holding, with the dollar's pre-CPI pullback a mild tailwind and RSI(14) cooling to ~61.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83,547 swing low exposes the fib 50% near 83,460 and the 83,147 higher low
M15 close above the 83,879 Asian high opens the path to the 84,077 prior high from yesterday's London open
London open around 07:00 UTC may test either edge of the 83,547–83,879 band
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 64 · price 83,669.86
HH/HL chain since the 82910 low, holding above the 83613 break.
Late in the Asia session, price has built higher lows off the 82910 low and broken the 83613 overnight high. It set an Asian high at 83879, and the pullback held at 83547, the pullback low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Asia leg. Price sits below yesterday's 84078 prior high from the London open, with a firm dollar and pre-CPI caution keeping the range contained.
Support: 83,547.00, 83,427.00, 83,147.00
Resistance: 83,879.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 83547 pullback low exposes the fib 61.8 near 83427 and the higher lows trendline
Break of the 83879 asian high opens a test of the 84078 prior high
Loss of the 83147 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rising lows through Asia · RSI 70 · price 83,743.78
Higher lows 83049→83089→83147 into an 83879 Asian high; shallow pullback held.
Asia session built rising lows off 83049 and broke the early-Asia 83613 high, tagging an 83879 asian high. The pullback low at 83547 held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Asia leg, and price sits near the range top into London open. Yesterday's prior high at 84077 caps above, with a firm USD backdrop ahead of CPI.
Support: 83,547.00, 83,147.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,879.00, 84,077.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83547 pullback low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 83147 swing low
Acceptance above the 83879 asian high opens the 84077 prior high
Loss of 83147 brings yesterday's NY 82910 session low back into view
Fed's Bowman 09:40 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC (core vs 0.2% f/c) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off NY low, pausing · RSI 59 · price 83,619.91
Higher-low chain since 82910; pullback from Asian high.
Late Asia session. Price has stepped up in higher lows from yesterday's NY-session low at 82910, and the push to the 83879 asian high was rejected, pulling back toward the 38.2% fib near 83600 with RSI(14) cooling to ~59. The move is a drift in thin flow with no BTC-specific driver. The firm dollar ahead of CPI keeps yesterday's 84077 london high as the overhead cap.
Support: 83,548.99, 83,426.70, 83,147.43
Resistance: 83,878.63, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83549 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib at 83427
Break of the rising trendline near 83160 and the 83147 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Close above the 83879 asian high opens a retest of the 84077 london high
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
04:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pullback after Asia high · RSI 55 · price 83,600.93
Higher-low chain, retesting Asia breakout.
Late Asia session: price cleared the early 83613 high at 02:45 UTC, ran to the 83879 asia high, then faded to 83600, the 38.2% retrace of the 83147–83879 leg. Higher lows at 83049, 83090 and 83147 hold the rising trendline while USD holds firm into CPI.
Support: 83,513.00, 83,320.00, 83,147.00
Resistance: 83,878.63, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
Holding the 83513 fib 50% keeps the higher-low chain intact; a close below the 83320 break base turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the 83147 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the intraday HL sequence
A close above the 83879 asia high opens the 84077 prior high, set early in yesterday's London session
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
In late Asia, BTC cleared the 83613 break level and printed a session high at 83879. It briefly topped yesterday's NY high at 83779, then slipped back under it. Rising lows from the 82910 double bottom (24h low) are intact, and price holds above the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the London high, with a firm dollar into CPI as the backdrop.
Support: 83,613.00, 83,147.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,779.00, 83,879.00, 84,077.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 83613 break level would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Clearing the 83879 session high puts the 84077 London high in play
Loss of the 83147 swing low and the rising-lows trendline would break the HL chain and expose the 82910 24h low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Late-Asia break above Asian high and NY session high.
A late Asia session push cleared the Asian high at 83613 and the NY session high near 83779. That extends a higher-low sequence from 83049 to 83147, with RSI(14) near 68 against a softer pre-CPI dollar. Price has retraced about 77% of yesterday's 84077–82910 decline, with the swing high at 83844 and the 24h high at 84077 overhead.
Support: 83,612.92, 83,147.43, 83,089.50
Resistance: 83,843.67, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the Asian high at 83613 would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the higher low at 83147 and the Asian low at 83090 negates the rebound structure
Acceptance above the 24h high at 84077 completes a full retrace of the 84077–82910 decline
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Break above the Asian high on a rising-lows chain off 82910.
Late in the Asia session price cleared the 83613 Asian high, extending a higher-low chain from the 82910 NY-session low. The move is pressing the 83658 session high, with RSI(14) near 68 and the 83779 NY high next overhead, while a firm dollar into CPI keeps follow-through thin.
Support: 83,612.92, 83,147.43, 83,089.50
Resistance: 83,657.87, 83,778.74, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
Holding above the 83613 asian high keeps the breakout intact; a drop back inside the Asian range reads as a false break
M15 close above the 83779 ny high exposes the 84077 prior high, yesterday's London-open peak
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 83147 swing low ends the rising-lows chain, with the 83090 asian low below
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Late Asia session, and the last bar is back at the 83,622 Asian high after a chain of rising lows from the 82,910 day low. Price is near the 78.6% retrace of the drop from the NY high, still inside the 82,910–84,077 day range. With no BTC-specific news, price is tracking a firm dollar into US CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,622 Asian high opens the 83,779 NY high, then the 84,077 day high
Rejection at the Asian high followed by a break of the 83,147 higher low ends the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 83,090 Asian low
Loss of the 82,910 day low invalidates the recovery read
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core m/m vs 0.2% f/c) could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 56 · price 83,340.22
Descending highs vs rising lows, tightening coil.
Price is coiling inside an 83,090–83,613 Asian range. Highs keep stepping down from the 84,077 London high and the 83,779 NY high, while lows keep rising off the 82,910 NY low. The latest higher low at 83,147 put price back above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral near 56, and the firm USD has kept a lid on rallies ahead of CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,613 Asian high breaks the descending highs line and opens the 83,779 NY high
Failure to hold the 83,147 higher low and the 83,090 Asian low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 82,910 NY low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC (~7h) and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; core m/m vs 0.2% is the swing input
Lower highs compressing into a flat 82,910–83,090 floor.
Asia session is mid-range at 83,280. Price was rejected at the 83,613 session high, near the 61.8% fib of London's 84,078–82,910 drop, which makes it the third lower high since that peak. The 82,910 swing low and the 83,050–83,090 range floor have held through NY and Asia, while a firm USD ahead of US CPI has capped each bounce.
What it said to watch
A break below the 83,089 session low exposes the range floor and then the 82,910 swing low.
An M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 83,613 session high would break the lower-high sequence, with the 83,779 ny high next.
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~10h) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read.
02:17 UTC
Sideways, contracting below London high · RSI 44 · price 83,231.34
Lower highs and higher lows since 17:45 UTC, range compressing.
Since the London high at 84077, highs have stepped lower to the NY high at 83779 and the Asian high at 83613. Lows have risen off the NY low at 82910. A rejection from 83613 early in the Asia session has left price drifting mid-range near 83230, just under both EMAs, with RSI(14) ~44. A firm dollar ahead of US CPI is keeping the tape compressed.
Support: 83,089.50, 83,048.54, 82,909.69
Resistance: 83,612.92, 83,778.74, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low 83090 and swing low 83049 breaks the rising support line and reopens the ny low 82910
M15 close above the asian high 83613 clears the falling resistance line and puts the ny high 83779 back in play
Bowman (09:40 UTC) and US CPI (12:30 UTC, core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 46 · price 83,251.32
Lower highs from 83,779 vs higher lows off 82,910.
Early Asia session. After the rejection at the 83,613 asian high, price is parked near the 50% retrace of the 82,910–83,613 swing, just under EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 46. Lower highs from the 83,779 NY high and higher lows off the 82,910 NY low are compressing price, with a firm dollar into US CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,090 asian low exposes the 83,049 swing low, then the 82,910 ny low
M15 close above the 83,471 prior high reopens the 83,613 asian high and the lower-highs line toward the 83,779 ny high
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~10h) is the main catalyst; core vs 0.2% m/m could break the compression either way
Loss of the higher-lows line off 82,910 ends the consolidation read
01:47 UTC
Sideways, compressing after London fade · RSI 46 · price 83,250.32
Lower highs from 83780, higher lows from 82910.
Early Asia session: price is coiling between lower highs off the NY high at 83780 and a rising line of higher lows from the NY low at 82910. The session high at 83613 was rejected, the session low at 83090 tagged that rising line, and RSI near 46 with price on flat EMAs reflects pre-CPI caution with the dollar firm.
Support: 83,090.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,613.00, 83,780.00, 84,077.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83090 session low and the rising line exposes the 82910 ny low
Close above the 83613 session high breaks the lower-high line toward the 83780 ny high, with the 84077 day high above
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~11h), core vs 0.2% m/m, plus Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Sideways, range-bound below the 84077 morning high · RSI 46 · price 83,211.36
82910–83780 range since London; Asia spike to 83613 rejected.
The Asia session spike to the 83613 session high was rejected and has fully faded. Price sits at 83211, back under EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral at 46. Price is still inside the 82910–83780 range carved out after the London selloff from 84077, with higher lows at the 82910 ny low and the 83049 swing low as the firm dollar keeps rallies capped into CPI.
Support: 83,097.49, 83,048.54, 82,909.69
Resistance: 83,471.08, 83,612.92, 83,778.74
What it said to watch
Break of the 83097 session low exposes the 83049 swing low and the higher-lows line
Loss of the 82910 ny low breaks the range floor
Recovery above the 83471 late ny high reopens the 83613 session high, with the 83779 range top beyond
Sustained trade below the 78.6% of the Asia spike fib (~83169) confirms the full retrace
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~11h), core m/m vs 0.2% f/c, could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is the earlier risk
01:17 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 44 · price 83,218.35
Lower highs from 84077 against higher lows from 82910; Asia session rejected at 83613.
Early Asia session pushed off the 83048 swing low to an asia high at 83613, then faded back to 83220, below EMA20 and EMA50. That high capped price under the 83779 NY high, so lower highs keep pressing against higher lows from the 82910 NY low as the market waits on US CPI with a firm dollar.
Support: 82,909.69
Resistance: 83,612.92, 83,778.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83613 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 83779 ny high into view
Failure to hold the 83048 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 82910 ny low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) can resolve the compression
01:05 UTC
Sideways after a London-hours peak, compressing · RSI 50 · price 83,363.19
Range 82,910–83,780 with lower highs and higher lows.
BTC has been range-bound between the 82,910 swing low and 83,779 NY high since the London-hours rejection from the 84,077 day high. Lower highs at 83,779 and 83,613 against higher lows at 82,910 and 83,049 are compressing price. The early Asia session spike to the 83,613 session high was rejected, and RSI(14) sits flat near 50 with the dollar firm into US CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,613 session high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 83,779 NY high back in play
Failure to hold the 83,049 session low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 82,910 swing low at the range floor
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could break the range, with core vs the 0.2% m/m forecast the swing factor; Bowman speaks earlier at 09:40 UTC
Higher lows since 82,910 NY low; break above 83,471 prior high, still below 83,779 lower high.
In the early Asia session, price pushed up from 83,097, cleared the late-NY prior high at 83,471 and tagged a session high of 83,613. That extends a rising-lows chain from the 82,910 NY low, with RSI(14) near 61 and price testing the 61.8% fib of the day high-NY low drop. The wider 24h structure is still a range capped by the 83,779 lower high and the 84,077 day high, with a firm USD weighing into CPI.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 83,471 prior high fails the breakout and returns price to the range
M15 close above the 83,779 lower high breaks the post-84,077 lower-high sequence and puts the day high back in view
Rejection at the 83,613 session high and the 61.8% fib area would leave the range read intact
A break of the 83,048 swing low and the rising-lows trendline shifts focus to the 82,910 NY low
Fed's Bowman (09:40 UTC) and US CPI (12:30 UTC, ~12h; core 0.2% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84,077 against higher low at 83,048, coiling.
The prior Asia-session rally from 81,357 topped at the 84,077 day high near London open. Since then price has compressed into a narrowing band, with the NY high at 83,779 and a later lower high at 83,471 on one side, and the NY low at 82,910 and the late swing low at 83,048 on the other. The early-Asia bounce is now pressing the descending trendline near 83,410–83,470 with RSI(14) neutral at 55, while a firm dollar into CPI keeps macro pressure on.
What it said to watch
Close above the 83,471 lower high breaks the descending trendline and opens the 83,779 NY high
Failure below the 83,048 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 82,910 NY low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~12h) is the main event risk; Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC could move price before then
Range 82910–83778 since the 84077 high, higher lows off the range low.
Early Asia session. Price is bouncing off the 83048 swing low and sits mid-range inside 82910–83778, a range in place since the 84077 high printed at London open. Rising lows from the 82910 range low keep the intraday structure intact below the 83471 swing high, with USD firm into US CPI.
Support: 82,909.69
Resistance: 83,471.08
What it said to watch
A close above the 83471 swing high extends the rising lows chain toward the 83778 NY high
A break of the 83048 swing low and the rising lows line reopens the 82910 range low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower from the day high · RSI 44 · price 83,118.46
Lower highs under 83,780; late-session bounce retraced to the swing low.
The prior Asia rally from 80,965 peaked at the 84,077 day high at London open. London and NY then ranged below the 83,780 NY high, and a late-NY dip set the 82,910 NY low on two tests. A rejection at the 83,471 swing high has since retraced about 75% of that bounce into the 83,050 swing low as the new Asia session opens, with lower highs intact and RSI(14) near 44 ahead of US CPI.
What it said to watch
A close below the 83,050 swing low exposes the 82,910 NY low; losing that extends the lower-highs sequence
A close above the 83,471 swing high and the lower-highs line would shift the read back to a range toward the 83,780 NY high
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~12h): a core print vs the 0.2% m/m forecast could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC