BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Range after Asia rally, lower highs · RSI 47 · price 83,161.42
Lower highs since London open against a flat floor near 82,910.
The Asia rally from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 day high at London open. Since then price has printed lower highs at the 83,779 NY high and the 83,471 late high, against a floor at the 82,910 session low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally. Late-session rejection from 83,471 has price back at the 83,061 late low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and the dollar firm into US CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,910 session low and the 38.2% Asia rally fib exposes a deeper retrace of the Asia rally
M15 close above the 83,471 late high breaks the lower highs trendline, with the 83,779 NY high above
Failure to hold the 83,061 late low puts the range floor back in play during the Asian session
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~13h): core m/m vs 0.2% f/c could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 45 · price 83,117.47
Lower highs from 84077; late bounce rejected, testing swing low.
Lower highs since the 84077 London-open peak, with the 83779 NY open high capping the next push. The late-NY bounce from the 82910 NY low stalled at 83471, under the descending trendline and inside the 38.2–50% fib. Price then dropped about 400 to the 83060 swing low as the Asia session opens, with a firm USD into CPI as the backdrop and RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 83,060.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,471.00, 83,779.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82910 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 83471 late high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 83779 NY open high next
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~13h), where core vs 0.2% m/m could materially shift this read
The Asia-session rally from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 day high early in London. Since then the highs have stepped lower: the ny open high at 83,779, then a late high at 83,471, under a falling trendline that stalled near the 50% fib. The ny low at 82,910 held twice during NY hours. The 23:00 UTC bar rejected back to 83,200, below EMA20/50, leaving price mid-range with a firm USD backdrop into US CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,055 london low exposes the 82,910 ny low double low
Failure to hold the 82,910 ny low confirms a lower-low out of the post-London range
Close above the 83,471 late high breaks the falling trendline; 83,779 ny open high is next resistance
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and DXY near 102.2–102.35 could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Recovering from NY low, below the 84077 London-open peak · RSI 59 · price 83,406.15
Lower highs since 84077; higher-low chain off 82910 into post-NY hours.
Asia ran from 80965 to 84077 at London open, then printed lower highs through London and NY. The late-NY dip to the 82910 NY low briefly broke the 83055 London low and was reclaimed. Since then a rising trendline of higher lows has lifted price to the 83471 recent high, just under the 50% fib at 83494. The firm-USD backdrop into US CPI has kept the bounce shallow.
Support: 83,316.00, 83,095.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,471.00, 83,534.00, 83,779.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 83534 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83779 NY high in view
Loss of the 83316 higher low and the rising trendline (~83330) exposes the 83095 swing low
Rejection at the 83471 recent high / 50% fib keeps the move a retracement within the decline from 84077
US CPI Oct 14 12:30 UTC; a hot core read (≥0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Recovering within intraday range · RSI 61 · price 83,445.10
Higher lows off 82,910 double bottom, below NY high.
The Asia rally from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 day high at London open. London and NY then printed lower highs, including the 83,779 NY high, into a double btm at 82,910 late in NY. Post-NY drift has stacked higher lows up to 83,450 on thinning ranges, just under the 50% fib of the day-high decline, as the dollar eased off its highs ahead of CPI.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83,316 swing low and the rising support line exposes the 83,060 pivot low and the 82,910 double btm
Acceptance above the 50% fib at 83,493 opens the 83,779 NY high; a close above that puts the 84,077 day high back in play
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs 0.2% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC first
22:32 UTC
Range after Asia rally, short-term higher lows · RSI 60 · price 83,391.16
Lower highs from 84,077, double low at 82,910, post-NY higher lows.
The Asian-session rally from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 day high at London open. Lower highs since, including the 83,779 NY high, have kept price ranging, and the pullback held a double low at 82,910 near the 38.2% Asia rally fib. After the NY close, a rising trendline has lifted price back above the 83,291 neckline, with RSI(14) near 60, but the late NY high at 83,456 caps it in thin trade ahead of US CPI with USD firm.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83,291 neckline and the rising trendline reopens the 82,910 double low
Break of the 82,910 double low and the 38.2% Asia rally fib exposes the 50% retracement near 82,520
Clearance of the 83,456 late NY high exposes the 83,779 NY high, then the 84,077 day high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read; core vs 0.2% m/m f/c is the swing factor, with Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC beforehand
22:17 UTC
Pullback from day high, late-session rebound · RSI 59 · price 83,351.21
Lower highs since 84077, twin low at 82910 holding.
Since the 84077 London high, BTC has printed lower highs, with the 83779 NY high rejected. Price then slid to a double low at 82910. The late-NY rebound has stalled at 83456 (session high), right at the 38.2% fib with the 50% near 83494 overhead. Rising lows and a pullback low at 83220 underpin the move as the firm dollar keeps the tape subdued into CPI.
Support: 83,220.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,456.00, 83,779.00, 84,077.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 83456 session high and the 50% fib near 83494 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83779 ny high back in play
Loss of the rising lows trendline and the 83220 pullback low reopens the 82910 double low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core vs 0.2% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC precedes it
22:04 UTC
Lower highs since London, rebounding from NY low · RSI 52 · price 83,369.19
Lower highs from 84078; higher lows off the 82910 double bottom.
The Asia session rally from 80965 met rejection at the London open high of 84078. Lower highs followed through NY (ny high 83779, swing high 83534) down to an ny low double bottom at 82910. Rising lows since have lifted price back to the 38.2% retrace near 83370 in thin post-NY trade, with a late high at 83456. USD stays firm into CPI and there is no BTC-specific driver.
Support: 83,220.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,456.00, 83,534.00, 83,779.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 83534 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83779 ny high in view
Loss of the 83220 higher low and the rising lows trendline reopens the 82910 ny low
Repeated failure at the 83456 late high keeps the rebound a retrace inside the London–NY decline
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC, then US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed (~14h), could materially shift this read
Since the 84077 day high at London open, BTC has held a range, and the NY high at 83778 marked a lower high. The NY selloff into the 82910 swing low is being retraced through the 50% fib, with higher lows at 83095 and a recent high at 83408 as the Asia session opens. There is no BTC-specific news; a firm USD and pre-CPI caution are keeping the moves contained.
Support: 83,095.00, 83,000.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,408.00, 83,778.00, 84,077.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 83408 recent high and the 61.8% fib near 83447 opens the 83778 ny high
Loss of the 83095 higher low and the rising support line puts the 83000 round number and the 82910 swing low back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core vs 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a hot core is the bigger risk to the range
21:32 UTC
Range after intraday lower highs, mild recovery · RSI 56 · price 83,266.30
Lower highs from 84,077, twin lows at 82,910, tight band below 83,360.
Post-NY close, BTC is holding a narrow 83,095–83,360 band after twin NY lows at 82,910. The bounce stalled at the 83,360 late high, near the 38.2% retracement of the drop from the 84,077 day high set at London open. Lower highs remain intact, and the tape is quiet with a firm USD into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,360 late high and the lower-highs trendline (~83,390) opens a test of the 83,780 ny high
Failure to hold the 83,095 higher low exposes the 82,910 ny low; a break there voids the double bottom
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Pullback from London high, stabilising late NY · RSI 60 · price 83,298.27
Lower highs since London; micro higher lows off 82,910 double low.
The Asia-session rally from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 London high in the first hour of London, then printed lower highs at the 83,779 NY high as a firm USD weighed into CPI. A double low at 82,910 held, and the late-NY bounce stalled at the 83,360 late NY high near the 50% of the NY drop. Price is just above both EMAs, which have flattened together.
What it said to watch
A close above the 83,360 late NY high clears the 50% retrace of the NY drop and puts the 83,779 NY high back in view.
A break of the 83,095 higher low undercuts the rising lows line and reopens the 82,910 double low.
Loss of the 82,910 double low confirms a lower low below the post-London range.
US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC (~15h) is the main event risk. A core print against the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read.
21:07 UTC
Post-rally range, lower highs since London open · RSI 60 · price 83,344.22
Lower-high chain inside 82,910–84,077; double low rebound after NY close.
The Asia session rally from 80,965 peaked at the 84,077 rally high at London open. London and NY then printed lower highs at the 83,780 NY high and the 83,535 lower high. A double low at 82,910, near the 38.2% fib of that rally, produced an after-NY bounce to 83,344 that is reclaiming the 83,080 pivot low area, with RSI(14) near 60.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,535 lower high, and the descending lower-high line near 83,430, breaks the London-NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 82,910 double low exposes the fib 50% retracement near 82,520
Slip back below the 83,080 pivot low would negate the double low rebound
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; no BTC-specific driver in the digest, with USD tone the main backdrop
20:47 UTC
Intraday pullback stabilising, higher lows late NY · RSI 57 · price 83,306.26
Double low at 82910, price testing 83291 neckline inside 82910–84077 day range.
BTC printed its session high at 84077 into London open, and the NY-open spike to the 83779 NY high was sold back to a double low at 82910 during late NY hours. Late-NY bars are building higher lows and price is pressing the 83291 neckline, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the NY drop. RSI(14) sits near 57 and there is no BTC-specific driver ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 83,291.27, 83,095.49, 82,909.69
Resistance: 83,534.01, 83,778.74, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83534 swing high extends the double-bottom recovery toward the 83779 NY high
Failure to hold the 83095 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and reopens the 82910 double low
Slipping back below the 83291 neckline returns price to the 82910–83291 base
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read; a thin Asia session comes first
20:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 47 · price 83,101.48
Lower-high sequence from 84077; late-NY range 82910–83264.
The Asia-session flush to 80965 (asia low) reversed into a London-open day high at 84077. Price has since printed lower highs at 83779 (ny high) and 83264, and the ny low at 82910 is holding near the 38.2% retrace of that leg. Late NY is compressing in an 82910–83264 range below both EMAs, with no BTC-specific driver and a firm USD into CPI.
Support: 82,909.69, 82,521.00, 80,964.84
Resistance: 83,264.30, 83,778.74, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83264 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83779 ny high back in view
Failure to hold the 82910 ny low exposes the fib 50% retrace at 82521
Acceptance above the 84077 day high would negate the pullback structure
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~16h). A core print away from the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84,077 London high; basing 82,910–83,265 into Asia.
After the overnight rebound from 80,965, London open set the session high at 84,077. Since then the market has printed a lower high at the 83,779 NY high and another lower high at 83,534, with a double low at 82,910 in late NY hours. Price is now compressing between that double low and the 83,265 range top, flat against EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44, as the market waits for Wednesday's US CPI with no BTC-specific driver.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,265 range top would put the 38.2% fib near 83,356 and the 83,534 lower high back in play
Loss of the 83,055 swing low and then the 82,910 double low would confirm a fresh lower-low in the intraday downtrend
The descending lower-highs line from 84,077 sits near 83,470 — a close through it breaks the lower-high sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print keeps USD firm
20:04 UTC
Range after Asia rally, intraday lower highs · RSI 45 · price 83,223.35
Lower highs from 84077 London-open high, flat base near 82910.
The Asia session rally from 80965 topped at the 84077 London high, and price has printed lower highs since, with the 83780 NY high capped below the descending trendline. The NY session low at 82910 held twice near the fib 38.2% of that rally. RSI sits mid-range with no fresh BTC driver and a firm USD into CPI.
Support: 82,910.00, 82,520.00
Resistance: 83,290.00, 83,780.00, 84,077.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83290 lower high confirms the double bottom off the session low
Failure to hold 82910 opens the fib 50% at 82520
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 83780 NY high breaks the sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print adds USD pressure
19:47 UTC
Lower highs since London open, consolidating · RSI 40 · price 83,101.48
Rebound faded to the 38.2% retrace; late-NY range 82,910–83,220 under a falling trendline.
BTC has given back about 38.2% of the Asia-session rebound from 80,965 to the 84,077 day high. Lower highs printed through London, and the NY high at 83,779 was rejected. Late NY is compressing between the 82,910 NY low and the 83,220 range top under a falling trendline, with no BTC-specific news and the USD tone setting the backdrop into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,910 NY low (tested twice) extends the lower-low sequence toward the fib 50% at 82,521
M15 close above the 83,220 range top and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 83,779 NY high next
Only a recovery through the 84,077 day high would fully reverse the post-London fade
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~17h), with Bowman at 09:40 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read via the USD
19:32 UTC
Downtrend since London open, stabilising late NY · RSI 43 · price 83,192.38
Lower highs from 84,077, double low at 82,910 session low.
The Asia-session rally from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 london high, and price has since printed a lower high at 83,779 in NY and another at 83,535. The 82,910 session low held twice during late NY, and price is pinned at EMA20 below the 83,290 neckline with RSI near 43 as a firm USD caps risk appetite ahead of US CPI.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83,290 neckline completes the double bottom off the session low
Failure to hold the 82,910 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82,370 swing low
A move through the 83,535 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 84,077 london high back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~17h) could materially shift this read; a core beat that extends DXY strength weighs on risk
19:17 UTC
Range after overnight rally, drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 83,117.47
Lower highs since 14:00 UTC, twin lows at 82910.
The Asia rally from 80965 topped at 84077 into London open. London and NY then held a 83055–83778 range, with lower highs off the 14:00 UTC range top and a descending trendline capping each bounce. A late-NY dip below the range floor found twin lows at 82910 near the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally fib, and price is back around 83117 below both EMAs. There is no BTC-specific news; a firm USD and pre-CPI caution set the tone.
Support: 83,055.00, 82,910.00, 82,521.00
Resistance: 83,291.00, 83,778.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 82910 twin lows confirms the range-floor break and opens the 50% fib at 82521
Close above the 83291 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold 83055 range floor turns the reclaim into a confirmed breakdown
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~17h) could materially shift this read
19:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 43 · price 83,102.48
Lower highs from 84,077, lower low at 82,910 NY low, now just above 83,055 London low.
Late NY session. Lower highs off the 84,077 London high and the 83,779 NY high carried price through the 83,055 London low to an 82,910 NY low. That low held twice, forming a small double bottom, and price is now retesting the London low from just above with RSI(14) near 43. A firm USD and pre-CPI caution frame the drift, with no BTC-specific driver.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83,290 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline
Failure to hold the 82,910 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82,370 swing low
A sustained close back below the 83,055 London low turns the retest into rejection
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~17.5h) could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 36 · price 83,013.58
Asia rally capped at 84,077; London-NY range floor at 83,055 broken late NY.
The Asia session rally from 80,965 topped at 84,077 around London open. London and NY have since printed a chain of lower highs, and the 83,055 range floor gave way late in NY hours to a 82,910 session low, just above the fib 38.2% at 82,888. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not stretched, with BTC drifting under a bid dollar into Wednesday's US CPI.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 83,055 range floor and the 83,291 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 82,910 session low and the 82,888 fib 38.2% exposes the 82,521 fib 50%
A move through the 83,779 spike high would invalidate the descending lower-highs trendline
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London-open high · RSI 38 · price 83,008.59
Lower highs since 84,078; 83,055 shelf broken late NY.
Asia rallied from 80,965 to a London-open high at 84,078. Price has since printed lower highs at 83,779 in early NY and 83,534. Late NY broke the 83,055–83,110 shelf, now a broken shelf, to a NY low at 82,910 near the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally, with a firm USD capping the tape into CPI.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the NY low at 82,910 and the 38.2% fib exposes the 50% fib near 82,520
M15 close back above the broken shelf at 83,055–83,110 neutralises the breakdown; the lower high at 83,534 sits above
Lower highs trendline from the London high stays intact unless price reclaims the 83,534 lower high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: a core print away from the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 39 · price 83,079.51
Lower highs from 84,077, range floor 83,055 broken, retest from below.
The Asia session rally off 80,965 peaked at the 84,077 day high into London open. Since then a sequence of lower highs from the 83,779 NY high has capped price, and late NY broke the 83,055 range floor to an 82,910 swing low near the 38.2% fib. Price is now back at that broken floor from below, with the USD bid ahead of Wednesday's US CPI keeping rallies shallow.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,291 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 82,910 swing low exposes the fib 50% of the Asia rally at 82,521
Reclaim of the 83,779 NY high would put the 84,077 day high back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
18:04 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London · RSI 33 · price 83,023.57
Lower highs from 84,077; 83,060 shelf broken, fresh session low.
Since the 84,077 London high, BTC has printed lower highs at the 83,779 NY high and 83,534. The 17:45 UTC bar broke the 83,060 shelf that held from late London, setting a session low at 82,910 near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rally. RSI(14) sits near 33 with price below both EMAs as the dollar stays bid into Wednesday's US CPI.
What it said to watch
Close back above the 83,060 broken shelf would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 82,910 session low exposes the 50% fib of the Asia rally near 82,520
Reclaiming the 83,534 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence on the trendline
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is low impact
17:47 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 83,083.50
Lower highs from 84,077 into a flat floor near 83,055, now under test.
After the Asia-London rally from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 London high, BTC has printed lower highs at the 83,779 NY high and the 83,534 swing high. The 83,055 range floor has held three times, and price is pressing it again after London close with RSI(14) near 42. The tape is macro-led, with a firm USD into Wednesday's CPI and no BTC-specific news.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,055 range floor confirms a break and exposes fib 38.2 at 82,888, then fib 50 at 82,521
Reclaim of the 83,534 swing high, then the 83,779 NY high, would break the lower-highs sequence; the 84,077 London high caps the window
US Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is low impact; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the event that could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Intraday pullback from day high, momentum fading · RSI 38 · price 83,150.43
Lower highs pressing into an 83,055 range floor.
The Asia rally from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 day high around London open. Price has since faded into an 83,055–83,779 band, with rejection at the 83,779 NY high followed by lower highs, the latest at 83,534, back onto the range floor. RSI(14) sits near 38 with price under both EMAs, and the firm USD backdrop ahead of Wednesday's CPI is capping rebounds.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,055 range floor breaks the NY range and exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally at 82,888, then the 50% fib at 82,521
Reclaim of the 83,534 lower high neutralises the lower-high sequence; the NY high at 83,779 and the day high at 84,077 sit above
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC today is minor
17:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 46 · price 83,179.40
83,055–83,779 range with a descending highs line; price at range low.
BTC has faded since the 84,077 day high at London open, after the overnight rally off 80,965. The early-NY spike to the 83,779 ny high was rejected for a lower high, and price is back at the 83,055 range low after London close. RSI(14) sits near 46 with price under both EMAs, and a firm USD into Wednesday's CPI is limiting rebounds.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,055 range low breaks the range and exposes the 38.2% fib of the overnight rally at 82,888
Recovery through the 83,534 swing high and the 83,779 ny high would break the lower-highs line and neutralise the pullback read
Monthly Budget Statement today at 18:00 UTC is minor; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
The overnight rally off 80,965 peaked at the 84,077 day high at London open. NY has since compressed below the 83,779 NY high, with each lower high sitting on a descending trendline and the range floor near 83,110 holding into after-London-close trade. Firm USD into Wednesday's CPI is capping the tape, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,534 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the NY compression
Loss of the 83,055 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib of the overnight rally near 82,890
Reclaiming the 83,779 NY high would put the 84,077 day high back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the next major catalyst. Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC today is minor
16:49 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, highs drifting lower · RSI 50 · price 83,392.16
83055–83779 range since London, lower highs from 84077.
The Asia-session rebound from 80965 topped at the 24h high of 84077 at London open. London and NY have since compressed into an 83055–83779 range, with the range floor holding repeatedly and a lower high at 83534. Price is pinned mid-range just under EMA20, with RSI flat near 50, as a firm USD keeps a lid on the tape ahead of CPI.
Support: 83,139.44, 82,888.00
Resistance: 83,534.01, 83,778.74, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83139 swing low and the 83055 range floor opens the fib 38.2 of the Asia rally near 82888
Close above the 83534 lower high and the 83779 NY high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 84077 24h high back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor
16:32 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, range-bound since London · RSI 56 · price 83,481.06
Range 83,055–83,780 with lows rising, highs compressing.
The Asia session rally from 80,965 peaked at the London high of 84,077 in the first hour of London. Since then BTC has ranged between the range low at 83,055 and the NY high at 83,779, which was rejected in the first hour of NY as a firm USD capped follow-through. Rising lows into the NY swing low at 83,139 leave price at 83,481, just above EMA20, holding above the 38.2% level of the Asia rally fib (~82,890).
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,779 NY high breaks the range top and puts the 84,077 London high back in play
Loss of the 83,139 NY swing low breaks the rising lows; a close under the 83,055 range low exposes the 38.2% Asia rally fib near 82,890
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; the Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC today is a minor risk
16:17 UTC
Sideways after overnight rally, lower highs in NY · RSI 53 · price 83,439.11
Range 83,055–83,779 below 84,077 day high.
The overnight rally ran from 80,965 to an 84,077 day high at London open. Since then price has held a 83,055–83,779 range: the first-hour NY spike to the ny high faded into lower highs, and the ny low at 83,140 held late in the session. RSI(14) sits near 53 with flat EMAs, leaving no directional impulse while a firm USD caps upside into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,779 ny high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 84,077 day high
Loss of the 83,140 ny low and the 83,055 range low exposes the 38.2% retracement of the overnight rally near 82,890
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC today is minor
16:04 UTC
Sideways after rejection at London-open high · RSI 54 · price 83,420.13
83,055–83,780 range with lower highs since 08:00 UTC.
The Asia rally off 80,965 cleared the Asian range high at London open but was rejected at the 84,077 day high. Since then price has ranged between the 83,055 range low and the 83,780 range top, with lower highs under a falling trendline. Mid-NY, price sits mid-range on EMA20 with RSI(14) ~54, and a firm USD is capping rallies ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,780 range top breaks the falling trendline and reopens the 84,077 day high
Failure to hold the NY low at 83,139 and then the 83,055 range low exposes the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib near 82,890
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
15:48 UTC
Pullback inside range after overnight V-recovery · RSI 47 · price 83,258.31
83,055–83,779 range, lower highs since the NY open spike.
The Asia session V-recovery from 80,965 peaked at the 84,077 London high. Price has since ranged between the 83,055 range low and the 83,779 range top. The NY open spike to the range top was rejected, and a lower-highs line now caps price, which sits below both EMAs with RSI near 47 as firm USD weighs ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,055 range low confirms a lower-low and exposes the fib 38.2 at 82,888
Close above the 83,779 range top breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 84,077 London high
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; Wednesday's 12:30 UTC CPI could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Post-rally range, lower highs since London · RSI 55 · price 83,514.03
83055–83780 range below the 84077 London high, holding above the 38.2% retrace.
The Asia session rally off 80965 topped at the 84077 London high. Since then price has ranged 83055–83780 with lower highs, holding above the 38.2% retrace of the move near 82890. The NY session push to the 83779 NY high was rejected, and price sits mid-range near 83514 with RSI(14) neutral around 55. A firm USD backdrop ahead of Wednesday's CPI has kept follow-through capped.
Support: 83,405.00, 83,055.00
Resistance: 83,779.00, 84,077.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 83779 NY high and the lower-highs line reopens the 84077 London high
Repeated tests of the 83405 intraday low; a break there puts the 83055 range low back in play
Loss of the 83055 range low exposes the 38.2% rally fib near 82890
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and Bowman remarks could materially shift this read; Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is minor
15:17 UTC
Asia rally stalled, sideways since London open · RSI 55 · price 83,553.98
London-NY range 83,055–83,780 below the 84,077 24h high.
The Asia-session rally from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 24h high at London open. Since then price has held a 83,055–83,780 range, with the London low retesting the prior-day high near 83,080 and holding above the 38.2% fib of the Asia move. NY's push to 83,779 (ny high) faded, but the 83,400 higher low keeps price above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral near 55 as a softer USD offsets pre-CPI caution.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,779 ny high reopens the 84,077 24h high
Failure to hold the 83,400 higher low returns price to the 83,055 london low
A break of the 83,055 london low ends the range read and exposes the 38.2% fib near 82,890
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC
15:04 UTC
Recovery stalled, ranging below London high · RSI 51 · price 83,515.03
Range 83,055–83,780 since 09:00 UTC, higher low at 83,430.
The overnight rally from 80,965 cleared the Asian high and topped at the 84,077 London high at 08:00 UTC, then held above the 38.2% retracement and has ranged between the 83,055 range low and the 83,780 range high since. The NY-hours push to the range high at 14:00 UTC was rejected, and price sits mid-range above a 83,430 higher low with RSI(14) neutral near 51 as a firm USD caps the tape into CPI.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83,780 range high reopens the 84,077 London high.
Failure to hold the 83,430 higher low points back to the 83,055 range low; a break there exposes the 38.2% retracement near 82,890.
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is an earlier risk.
14:47 UTC
Recovery stalled, ranging below day high · RSI 58 · price 83,641.89
Asia V-recovery, London range 83,055–83,645, NY push to range top.
Asia rebounded sharply from 80,965 to an 84,077 day high at London open. London then held a range with the london low at 83,055, a shallow pullback of roughly a third of the Asia rally fib, inside a series of rising lows. NY open lifted price to an 83,779 ny high, and the pullback low at 83,425 is holding with RSI(14) near 58, while a firm USD keeps price capped below the day high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,779 ny high reopens a test of the 84,077 day high
Loss of the 83,425 pullback low returns price to the London range and the rising lows near 83,100
Break below the 83,055 london low puts the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib near 82,890 in play
US Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is minor, and Wed 12:30 UTC CPI is the larger risk to this range
14:32 UTC
Post-rally consolidation, lower highs since London open · RSI 57 · price 83,597.94
Range 83,055–84,077 under a lower-high line; London base held repeatedly.
The Asia low at 80,965 fed a V-shaped rally to the 84,077 session high at London open. London then pulled back and built a base at 83,055–83,120 that held four times. The first hour of NY lifted price to the 83,779 NY high, which stalled under the lower-high line. RSI(14) sits near 57 with no extreme, and a firm USD ahead of Wednesday's CPI keeps the tape two-way.
What it said to watch
A close above the 83,779 NY high and the lower-high line opens a retest of the 84,077 session high
Loss of the 83,425 higher low returns price to the London base
A break below the 83,100 London base exposes the fib 38.2 retracement near 82,890
The US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor. Wednesday's CPI (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the main risk to this range
14:17 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, pullback ending · RSI 59 · price 83,682.84
Lower highs from 84,077 broken; base 83,055–83,645.
The Asia rally from the 80,965 low topped at the 84,077 london high. The pullback held the 83,055 range low, above the fib 38.2 at 82,888, while lower highs formed at 83,645 and 83,615. The first hour of NY broke that descending line and the range top, printing 83,779, with no BTC-specific driver and a firm dollar into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 83,645 range top turns the NY push into a false break
Clearance of the 83,779 ny high exposes the 84,077 london high
Loss of the 83,055 range low breaks the base and opens the fib 38.2 at 82,888
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Budget Statement 18:00 UTC today
83,055–83,645 range below the 84,078 session high.
Asia session rallied from 80,965 to an 84,078 session high into London open. Price has since compressed in an 83,055–83,645 range with lower highs, and the NY-open spike to 83,615 was rejected at the range top. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and there is no fresh crypto driver, with DXY firm near 102.35 ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,055 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 82,890
Close above the 83,645 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 84,078 session high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read via the dollar
Lower highs from 84,078 against a flat 83,055 floor.
The overnight flush to 80,965 reversed sharply into the 84,078 London high. Since then BTC has compressed between 83,055 and 83,645, printing a lower high, and the early-NY spike was rejected at 83,615. The range low holds above the fib 38.2 of the rally at 82,890, with RSI(14) near 47 and price pinned on EMA20/50. There is no fresh crypto driver while the USD stays firm into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,055 range low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the fib 38.2 at 82,890
Close above the 83,615 lower high and the descending trendline reopens the 84,078 London high
A sustained DXY push above 102.35 during NY hours adds pressure on the range low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next binary for this structure
Lower highs inside an 83,055–83,645 range after the Asia rally.
Price rallied from 80,965 in the Asia session to an 84,077 session high at London open. It has since retraced about 30% of that Asia rally into an 83,055–83,645 range. The range low sits on yesterday's 83,081 high, and the 83,645 range top has capped two rebounds. The first NY bar is trading mid-range near 83,430 with RSI(14) neutral around 49, as a softer USD offsets the hawkish Fed tone ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83,645 range top reopens the 84,077 session high
Failure to hold the 83,055 range low exposes the 83,000 round number and the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally near 82,890
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m vs 0.2% f/c) could materially shift this read; the 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is minor
13:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 41 · price 83,152.43
Lower highs pressing a flat 83,055–83,110 floor.
The overnight flush to 80,965 fully reversed through the Asia session into a 84,077 day high at the London open. London has since faded that rally, printing a swing high at 83,645 and a lower high at 83,425, while lows hold flat around the 83,055 session low. Price sits on that floor below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 41, against a firm-USD backdrop into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,055 session low exposes the 82,890 spike base, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally
Close above the 83,425 lower high, then the 83,645 swing high, breaks the lower-highs sequence off the 84,077 day high
First hour of the NY session is the next test of the 83,055–83,645 band
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
13:05 UTC
Pullback from London high, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 83,227.34
Descending highs since 84,077, floor at 83,055–83,080.
The overnight rebound from 80,965 carried into the London open, which pushed through the 83,844 Asian high to a London high at 84,077 before a rejection sent price back inside the Asian range. Since then the tape has printed lower highs, the latest at 83,645, against a pullback low near 83,055 in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) around 41 and a firm USD weighing on crypto ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
A break below the 83,055 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib of the overnight rebound at 82,888
A close above the 83,645 lower high breaks the descending sequence; the asian high at 83,844 is the next reference
Reclaiming the 84,077 london high would negate the false-break read
NY-session DXY direction is the near-term driver; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London-open high; retesting yesterday's breakout area.
The Asia-London rally ran from 80,965 to 84,078. It was rejected at the London high, and the pullback since has printed a lower high at 83,425 below the 83,645 swing high. Price is now testing the 83,055 pullback low around yesterday's 83,080 breakout area, with RSI(14) near 44, price under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, while a firm USD into Wednesday's CPI offers no tailwind.
What it said to watch
A close below the 83,055 pullback low exposes fib 38.2 at 82,889, then fib 50 at 82,521
A reclaim of the 83,425 lower high breaks the pullback line; the 83,645 swing high and the 84,078 london high sit above
NY open is due shortly and could set the session range around the 83,055–83,425 band
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; core vs 0.2% f/c could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Pullback from London high, lower highs · RSI 48 · price 83,415.14
Descending highs inside a 83055–83645 range.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 83844 to the london high at 84077, then reversed, and price has since stepped lower under a descending trendline with the lower high at 83645 capping and the session low at 83055 holding. Price is just under EMA20 (~83440) with RSI(14) near 48 into NY open, with no fresh BTC driver and a firm USD into Wednesday's CPI as the backdrop.
Support: 82,890.00
Resistance: 83,644.88, 83,843.67, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83055 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the fib 38.2 near 82890
M15 close above the 83645 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the asian high at 83844
Failure to reclaim 84077 london high keeps the false break above the Asian range intact
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~24h) could materially shift this read; Budget Statement 18:00 UTC today is minor
Lower highs and lower lows since the London session high.
BTC fell to 80,965 in the Asia session, then recovered in a V to the 84,078 session high in early London. Since then a lower highs trendline has capped price, and the 11:15 UTC spike to the 83,645 lower high was rejected back to 83,290. That leaves price below the ema20 but above the ema50, near the 23.6% retracement of the Asia-London leg; with no BTC-specific news, the firm USD is setting the tone.
What it said to watch
A break of the 83,085 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the fib 38.2 near 82,889.
A close above the 83,645 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline and reopens the 84,078 session high.
NY open and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC are near-term risk; Wednesday's US CPI is the larger swing factor for the USD-driven tone.
Lower high, lower low off the London-open peak; 83085 low holding.
The Asia session rallied from the 80,965 overnight low to the asian high near 83,844. London open pushed to a 84,077 session high, then faded to a london low at 83,085 (11:15 UTC), a shallow pullback above the fib 38.2 at ~82,888. Demand stepped in at that low, but the bounce stalled at a lower high near 83,645, and price is chopping between the two with a firm USD as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,645 lower high breaks the London down-sequence and exposes the asian high near 83,844, then the 84,077 session high
Failure to hold the 83,085 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the fib 38.2 at ~82,888
NY open and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone and this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (headline f/c 0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y) is the main event risk
11:32 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, pulling back in London · RSI 49 · price 83,474.07
Lower highs off 84077 London high, pullback line broken on latest bar.
BTC rallied about $3,100 from the 80965 Asia session low into the 84077 London high as the USD eased off its highs. London then printed lower highs back toward the 23.6–38.2% fib zone. The latest bar swept the 83108 low to a 83085 pullback low and closed back above the pullback line near 83474, with RSI(14) neutral around 49.
Support: 82,888.00
Resistance: 83,645.00, 84,077.41
What it said to watch
Close above the 83645 lower high would end the London pullback sequence and put the 84077 london high back in view
Failure to hold the 83085 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 retracement near 82888
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, and US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:18 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs through London · RSI 39 · price 83,171.41
LH/LL chain off the 84,077 London high, inside the Asia rally.
The Asia-session recovery from 80,965 topped at the 84,077 London high. London has since printed a lower-high/lower-low chain, and price now sits at the 83,108 London low while testing EMA50 near 83,180. The pullback has retraced about 29% of the Asia move, between fib 23.6 at 83,343 and fib 38.2 at 82,888, against a firm USD with no BTC-specific catalyst.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,108 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward fib 38.2 at 82,888, then fib 50 at 82,521
fib 23.6 at 83,343 capping bounces keeps the descending lower-highs structure intact
Close above the 83,637 lower high breaks the trendline and reopens the 84,077 london high
The NY open and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Lower highs and lower lows since London rejection at 84,077.
BTC climbed through Asia from the 80,965 overnight low. London pushed above the 83,844 asian high to a 84,077 london high and was rejected. Price is now stepping down in lower highs toward the 83,160 london low, between the 23.6% and fib 38.2 retracement, with the firm USD backdrop and no crypto catalyst keeping rallies capped.
What it said to watch
Break of the 83,160 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward fib 38.2 at 82,890
Reclaim of the 83,637 lower high and the 83,844 asian high reopens the 84,077 london high and neutralises the false break
Loss of 82,520 fib 50 would give back half of the Asia rally
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's CPI
10:48 UTC
Intraday pullback from 84,077 day high · RSI 38 · price 83,181.39
Lower highs and lower lows since London open.
The Asia-session rally off 80,965 met rejection at the 84,077 day high just after London open. Since then price has printed a lower high at 83,637, broken the 83,289 swing low and is now pressing the 83,159 session low while sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 38. A firm, risk-off-bid USD is the backdrop with no BTC-specific catalyst; the 38.2% fib of the 80,965–84,077 leg sits at 82,888.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,159 session low exposes the 38.2% fib at 82,888, then the 50% fib at 82,521
Reclaim of the 83,289 broken low and the lower-high line would stall the pullback read
Close above the 83,637 lower high reopens the 84,077 day high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and a firmer DXY could extend USD-driven pressure; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
10:34 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally · RSI 41 · price 83,335.23
Lower high under the 84,077 high, testing the London low.
Asia rallied from the 80,965 overnight low to an 84,077 session high at London open. That high was rejected, and London has since printed a lower high at 83,637. Price is now pressing the 83,289 London low, near the 23.6% retrace, and sits below EMA20 as a firm USD caps risk with no crypto catalyst in play.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,289 london low extends the pullback toward the fib 38.2 near 82,888
Close above the 83,637 lower high reopens the session high at 84,077
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and the 12:15 UTC ADP print could shift USD tone during NY hours
Lower highs since London session high; London low holding.
The Asia rally ran from the 80,965 overnight low to the 83,844 Asian high. London pushed through it to a 84,077 session high, but the move was rejected. Price has since printed lower highs and is holding just above the 83,290 London low, near the 23.6% retracement, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44. There is no BTC-specific catalyst, and the firm USD is the backdrop.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83,290 London low exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally at 82,890
M15 close above the 83,637 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 83,844 Asian high and 84,077 session high
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's CPI
10:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 49 · price 83,567.97
HH/HL from the 80,965 low; London false break above the Asian high.
Asia reversed the overnight drop from 80,965 into a HH/HL climb. London pushed through the asian high at 83,844 to a london high of 84,077 but could not hold it, and the false break retraced to the london low at 83,289 near the 23.6% fib. Price is back just above EMA20 (~83,515) with RSI(14) neutral near 49, capped by a lower high at 83,637, while a firm USD and no BTC-specific catalyst keep the move macro-driven.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,637 lower high reopens the asian high at 83,844 and the london high at 84,077
Loss of the 83,289 london low breaks the rising trendline and exposes fib 38.2 at 82,888
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC during NY hours could shift this read, and US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the larger swing risk
09:48 UTC
Intraday recovery, pulling back · RSI 46 · price 83,495.05
Asia V-recovery from 80,965; lower high forming below 84,077 London high.
Asia session reversed the overnight flush to 80,965 in a V-shaped recovery, and the London open printed a session high at 84,077 before a ~790-dollar rejection. Price is now retesting the 83,500–83,531 prior high zone from below, with the 83,289 pullback low holding just under the 23.6% fib and RSI(14) neutral at 46. There is no BTC-specific catalyst, and a firm USD is the macro backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,637 lower high reopens the 84,077 session high
Failure to hold the 83,289 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib near 82,888
Acceptance back above the 83,531 prior high turns the zone into support
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main macro risk; Fedspeak and USD strength into the print could shift this read
09:34 UTC
Intraday recovery, pulling back off session high · RSI 44 · price 83,366.19
Lower highs since London-open high; Asian higher-low chain intact above 82,890.
The Asia session recovered from the 80,965 overnight low, and London open extended the move to a session high at 84,078 before rejection. Four lower highs have since pulled price back below the 83,508 prior high to a 83,289 London low, with no BTC-specific catalyst and a firm USD in the background. RSI(14) sits near 44 with price below EMA20 but still above EMA50 and the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally near 82,890.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,508 prior high reopens a test of the 84,078 session high
Failure to hold the 83,289 London low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 83,000 round number and the 38.2% fib near 82,890
US ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Fedspeak during NY hours could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
False break above Asian high, then lower low at 83,289.
The Asia rally from the 80,965 low carried into the London open, briefly clearing the 83,844 Asian high to an 84,078 session high before rejection. The pullback has broken the 83,500 prior lows, printed a lower low at 83,289 and sits near the 23.6% level of the rally fib, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 46, as a firm USD into Wednesday's CPI caps the bounce.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,500 prior lows reopens the 83,844 Asian high
Loss of the 83,289 session low exposes the 83,139 swing low, then the fib 38.2 near 82,889
Reclaim of the 84,078 session high negates the false-break read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC during NY hours could shift USD and this read
09:06 UTC
Recovery from overnight low, pulling back off London high · RSI 46 · price 83,409.14
V-recovery off 80,965 low; session-high rejection at 84,077, 83,500 shelf lost.
In the Asia session BTC reversed the overnight flush to 80,965 as the dollar eased off its 102.60 high. London open then pushed it to a session high at 84,077, where it was sharply rejected. Three straight lower closes have since cut through the 83,500 broken shelf, putting price on the 23.6% fib and swing low near 83,325, with RSI(14) back to 46 and price under EMA20.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 83,500 broken shelf would keep the session-high rejection a shallow pullback within the recovery
Failure to hold the 83,325 swing low exposes the 83,140 break base, then the fib 38.2 at 82,890
A close above the 84,077 session high resumes the higher-high chain from the Asia low; the 83,844 Asia high is the first hurdle
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
08:48 UTC
Uptrend off Asia low, pulling back · RSI 64 · price 83,676.85
Higher highs and higher lows since 80,965; false break above Asian high.
Asia staged a V-shaped rally from the 80,965 low as DXY eased back toward 102.35. London then pushed through the 83,844 Asian high to an 84,077 session high, but the move was rejected and price is back inside the Asian range near 83,680. Price is holding above EMA20 near 83,550 with RSI(14) cooled to about 64, and the pullback sits between the 83,560 London low and the 83,502 swing low.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,844 Asian high reopens the 84,077 session high
Failure to hold the 83,560 London low and the 83,502 swing low exposes the fib 23.6% of the Asia rally near 83,343
A renewed DXY push back above 102.50 during NY hours, or Fedspeak ahead of Wednesday's CPI, could shift this read
08:34 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, stalling at highs · RSI 60 · price 83,839.67
HH/HL chain from 80,965; London break of Asian high rejected at 84,077, price back on the break level.
The Asia-session low at 80,965 produced a ~3,100-point recovery. London open pushed through the Asian high at 83,844 to a session high of 84,077 before a full reversal bar put price back on the Asian high, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60. There is no BTC-specific catalyst and the USD remains firm, so the tape is trading off macro.
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the Asian high at 83,844 would turn the London break into a false break and expose the 83,500 asia base
Acceptance above the 84,000 round number and the 84,077 session high resumes the HH chain
A loss of the 83,500 asia base opens the fib 38.2 retracement of the Asia low–session high move near 82,890
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD tone; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk
08:17 UTC
Uptrend, extended into London · RSI 70 · price 83,988.51
V-shaped rebound from the Asian low with a higher-high/higher-low chain; London has broken the Asian high.
Late-NY selling bottomed at 80,965 early in the Asia session, and the rebound has since built a clean higher-low chain as DXY eased off its 102.60 high. London open pushed through the 83,844 Asian high to a 84,077 session high. Price is now stalling just under the 84,000 round number, with RSI(14) near 70.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83,844 Asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
A break of the rising trendline (~83,730) and the 83,502 swing low would end the higher-low chain and expose the fib 23.6 of the rebound at ~83,343
Acceptance above the 84,077 session high extends the rebound into fresh window highs
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and the NY open could shift this read, with Wednesday's CPI (12:30 UTC) the larger risk
V-recovery from Asian low, higher-high/higher-low chain, capped at 24h high.
The Asia session reversed the late-NY slide from the 80965 low and retraced the full 24h decline despite a firm-USD backdrop. Into the London open, a probe to the 24h high at 83966 met rejection, and closes stayed back under the 83844 Asian high. RSI(14) is near 69 and higher lows at 83502 and 83560 remain intact.
Support: 83,560.00, 83,502.00
Resistance: 83,844.00, 83,966.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83966 24h high extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 83560 higher low and the 83502 swing low breaks the Asian-session sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and US CPI tomorrow at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:48 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 68 · price 83,831.68
V-recovery from the Asia low; HH/HL chain intact, London rejected at the session high.
Price has fully retraced the NY sell-off from the 80,965 low printed early in the Asia session. London open lifted it through the 83,844 Asian high to a 83,966 session high, but that bar closed well off the top. Price is now back just under the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 68 and the 83,502 higher low and rising lows line holding. The backdrop is macro only: the USD is easing off 18-month highs, with no BTC-specific catalyst.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,966 session high extends the HH chain toward the 84,000 round number
Loss of the 83,502 higher low and the rising lows line breaks the HL chain; the 83,325 swing low and the 82,820 fib 38.2 of the 80,965–83,966 rally sit below
Fed Waller (07:45 UTC) and Bowman (Wed 09:40 UTC): hawkish rate talk that lifts the USD into Wed CPI could cap the rebound
07:34 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Asian rally · RSI 68 · price 83,706.82
V-recovery from 80,965 Asian low, now tight 83,500–83,840 consolidation.
BTC bounced from the 80,965 Asian-session low and rallied about 2,900 to the 83,844 Asian high. It has since flattened into an 83,500–83,840 consolidation that early London is holding, with RSI(14) cooling to about 68. A bid USD ahead of Wednesday's CPI is the macro headwind, and the 83,970 prior high sits just above the range.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,844 asian high opens a test of the 83,970 prior high and the 84,000 round number
Failure to hold the 83,500 range floor exposes the 83,183 swing low near the 23.6% fib of the Asian rally
Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC) and Hammack (16:50 UTC) could shift the USD-driven read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
07:18 UTC
Short-term uptrend, stalling under Asian high · RSI 70 · price 83,678.85
V-recovery from Asia low, tight 83,500–83,845 range at London open.
The Asia session rebounded in a sharp V from the 80,965 low, recovering all of Monday's NY losses and printing an asian high at 83,844 as the USD saw mild profit-taking. Price has since coiled between the 83,502 range floor and that high into London open, RSI(14) holding near 70 with ranges contracting.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,844 asian high opens the path to the 84,038 prior high from Monday's London session
Loss of the 83,502 range floor exposes the 83,183 swing low, near the 23.6% retracement of the Asia rebound
A move through the 38.2% fib at 82,744 would retrace a large share of the Asia rebound
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read via the USD
07:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 73 · price 83,698.82
HH/HL chain from 80,965 low; tight 83,500–83,845 box at London open.
The Asia session fully reversed the overnight flush to 80,965. Price built a higher-low chain into the 83,844 Asia high as the USD saw mild profit-taking, with no BTC-specific catalyst. The first London bar is holding a tight box between the 83,502 pullback low and the Asia high, with RSI(14) near 73 and still above both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,844 asia high opens the 84,000 round number and the 84,249 24h high
Failure to hold the 83,502 pullback low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 83,183 higher low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift the USD and this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
06:47 UTC
Uptrend off Asia low, momentum flattening · RSI 72 · price 83,653.87
V-recovery from 80,965 to an 83,844 Asia high, now a tight 83,500–83,845 range.
Asia rebounded sharply from the 80,965 swing low to an 83,844 Asia high, recovering most of Monday's slide from the 84,258 prior high despite a firm USD. Into the London open, price is holding a tight 83,500–83,845 band above rising support, with RSI(14) near 72 and range ATR around 23,000 pips.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,502 pullback low and rising support would open a retest of the 83,081 NY high, roughly where the 23.6% level of the Asia rally fib sits
Close above the 83,844 Asia high would open the 84,258 prior high
Failure back through 83,081 would bring the 82,404 50% fib of the Asia rally into play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift the USD tone and test this range
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for this structure
06:34 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below asia high · RSI 74 · price 83,656.87
V-recovery off 80,965 with HH/HL chain; tight 83,500–83,700 consolidation.
The Asia session flushed to 80,965 at 00:45 UTC, then reversed the entire NY sell-off and broke the 83,081 NY high to print an Asia high at 83,843. Price is now holding a 83,500–83,700 box above the pullback low into London open, with higher lows still intact. The move came on a firm-USD backdrop with no fresh crypto catalyst.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,843 asia high and the 84,000 round number opens the 84,258 prior high from Monday's open
Loss of the 83,502 pullback low and the 83,325 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Failure back below the 83,081 ny high would mark the breakout as a false break
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could jolt the USD and shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
V-recovery from 80,965 Asian low; HH/HL chain with shallow pullback holding 83,500.
BTC reversed the late-NY slide from the 80,965 Asian low, reclaimed yesterday's 83,081 NY high and set a session high at 83,844 before stalling ahead of London open. The pullback has retraced only about 11% of the move and is holding the 83,500 pullback low, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-60s as DXY eases below 102.50 on profit-taking.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,500 pullback low opens a deeper retrace toward the 83,081 NY high and the fib 38.2 near 82,744
Break of the 83,844 session high puts yesterday's London prior high at 84,258 in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early London, could shift USD and this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
06:05 UTC
Uptrend off overnight low, pausing below Asia high · RSI 71 · price 83,580.95
HH/HL chain through Asia session, shallow pullback holding 83511.
The overnight slide to 80964.84 reversed in the Asia session into a stair-step HH/HL chain, which met rejection at the 83843.67 Asia high. The pullback is holding the 83511 swing low and the Asia rising tl, with RSI(14) cooling to about 71. There is no BTC-specific catalyst; the firm-USD backdrop is the macro drag.
Support: 83,511.03, 83,183.39, 82,744.00
Resistance: 83,843.67, 84,258.21
What it said to watch
A break below the 83511 swing low and the Asia rising tl ends the HH/HL chain
A close above the 83843.67 Asia high opens the path to the 84258 prior high from yesterday's London open
Loss of the 83183 higher low brings the Asia rally fib 38.2 near 82744 into view
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early in the London session, could shift USD tone and this read
05:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, stalling at highs · RSI 65 · price 83,533.01
HH/HL chain since the 80965 low, now testing the rising trendline.
Risk-off and a firm USD drove a slide from the 84258 prior high into a flush to 80965 shortly after the Asia open. Asia then recovered about 2,880 in a higher-high/higher-low chain to an 83844 session high, where the latest bar was rejected. Price is now sitting on the rising trendline, with the higher low at 83325 just below.
Support: 83,325.00, 83,140.00
Resistance: 83,844.00, 84,000.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 83844 session high brings the 84000 round number and the 84258 prior high into play
A break of the rising trendline and the 83325 higher low would end the HH/HL chain; below the 83140 swing low, the fib 38.2% near 82745 comes into view
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around the London open, could shift USD and this read
05:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, momentum hot · RSI 75 · price 83,618.91
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia, pressing the session high.
The Asia session reversed the NY-hours slide with a V-shaped recovery from 80,965 to a session high at 83,844, and RSI(14) is cooling from the mid-70s ahead of London open. Price sits below yesterday's London prior-day high at 84,258, against a firm-USD backdrop into Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 83,539.00, 83,302.00, 83,081.00
Resistance: 83,844.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83844 session high puts the 84258 prior-day high in play
Loss of the 83539 spike high and the rising trendline exposes the 83302 pullback low
Break below the 83081 NY swing high puts the 38.2% retracement of the Asia recovery (~82744) in view
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early London, could shift this USD-driven read
HH/HL chain from 80,965 low, holding above prior NY range top.
An early-Asia flush to 80,965 fully reversed. The Asia session rallied ~2,700 to an Asia high of 83,702, clearing yesterday's NY range top at 83,081 in a HH/HL chain along rising support, RSI(14) near 72. There was no BTC-specific catalyst; the bounce came as DXY eased below 102.50 on profit-taking.
What it said to watch
A break below the 83,325 pullback low snaps the HH/HL chain and the rising support line
Loss of the 83,081 range top puts price back inside the prior NY range; the 0.382 of the Asia rally fib sits near 82,655
A close above the 83,702 Asia high opens the path to the 84,258 prior high from Monday's London session
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, just after London open, could shift the read via the USD
HH/HL chain off 80,965; tight range under the Asia high.
BTC staged an Asian-session V-reversal from the 80,965 low and broke above Monday's NY high at 83,080 as DXY eased below 102.50 on profit-taking. A wick rejection at the 83,531 Asia high has left price in a narrow 83,180–83,510 band late in Asia, with RSI(14) near 68 and no BTC-specific catalyst in the digest.
What it said to watch
Close above the 83,531 Asia high reopens Monday's 84,258 London high
Loss of the 83,183 swing low and the 83,080 NY high exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally near 82,550
Break of the rally trendline from 80,965 would signal the Asia uptrend stalling
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, just after London open, could shift the read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Asia reversal from 80,965; tight consolidation below 83,531 spike high.
The Asia session reversed the late-NY flush to 80,965 with a V-shaped climb through Monday's NY high at 83,081. The 03:30 UTC spike to the 83,531 session high was rejected, and price has held 83,180–83,510 into London open, with RSI(14) near 66. BTC is trading off a firm USD with no fresh crypto catalyst.
What it said to watch
A close above the 83,531 session high reopens Monday's London prior high at 84,258.
Failure to hold the 83,183 swing low puts the ny high at 83,081 back in play; below that sits the fib 38.2 of the Asia rally at 82,551.
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC around London open could shift the USD-driven read. US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the larger risk.
04:32 UTC
V-shaped recovery, higher highs since 00:45 UTC · RSI 64 · price 83,320.24
HH/HL chain off 80,965 low; reclaimed 83,081 prior high, capped by 83,531 wick.
Asia session fully reversed the overnight slide to 80,965 with a HH/HL chain, clearing the 83,081 prior high. The 03:30 UTC spike to the 83,531 session high was rejected, and price is holding just above the breakout as London open approaches, with no BTC catalyst against a firm USD backdrop. RSI(14) is cooling to 64.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 83,081 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of 82,712 higher low breaks the Asia trendline and HL chain
M15 close above 83,531 session high opens the 84,258 24h high
Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC and USD strength into Wed CPI could shift this read
04:17 UTC
V-shaped recovery off Asia low, momentum pausing · RSI 68 · price 83,237.33
Higher lows since 80,965 sweep; capped below 83,531 session high.
Early Asia swept below 81,000 to an 80,965 session low and reversed about 2,500 USD, reclaiming yesterday's NY prior high near 83,080. The 03:30 UTC spike to the 83,531 session high was rejected with a long upper wick, and RSI(14) is cooling near 68 with no BTC-specific catalyst while a firm USD sets the tone into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83,080 prior high puts the reclaim in doubt
Break of the 82,712 swing low and rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
Close above the 83,531 session high opens the 84,258 prior-day high
Hold of the 38.2% fib near 82,550 on any deeper pullback keeps the recovery structure intact
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD and this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
04:04 UTC
Sharp recovery from Asia low, momentum pausing · RSI 65 · price 83,254.31
V-reversal with higher lows off 80,965; wick rejection at 83,531.
The early-Asia flush to the 80,965 asia low has fully reversed. Price reclaimed the 83,081 ny high and printed a long upper wick at the 83,531 asia high; it now sits late in the Asia session above EMA20 (~82,625), with RSI(14) near 65. The rebound came without a BTC-specific catalyst, against a firm USD and a heavy Asian equity sell-off.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 83,081 ny high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the recovery trendline and the 82,712 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib near 82,550
Acceptance above the 83,531 asia high opens the monday high at 84,258
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD and this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
03:48 UTC
V-shaped rebound off Asia low, stalling under spike high · RSI 63 · price 83,155.42
Reclaimed prior high at 83081 after an Asia flush to 80965; upper-wick rejection at 83531.
The Asia session flushed to 80,965, then rebounded about $2,200 and reclaimed the 83,081 prior high. The 03:30 UTC spike to 83,531 was rejected and left a long upper wick at the spike high. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) around $290, with no BTC-specific catalyst and a firm USD as the backdrop.
Support: 82,711.91, 82,300.00
Resistance: 83,531.01, 84,258.21
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83081 prior high marks the breakout as failed and exposes the 82712 pullback low
Close above the 83531 spike high opens the path to the 84258 24h high from Monday's London open
Loss of the 82300 range floor (~38.2–50% of the Asia rebound fib) would unwind most of the recovery
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
03:34 UTC
V-recovery off Asia low, pressing lower-high zone · RSI 60 · price 82,911.69
Lower highs from 84,258 intact; Asia higher-low chain from 80,965.
The Asia session swept the 81,000 round number to an 80,965 sweep low, then recovered in a V shape to an 83,029 session high as DXY eased slightly off Monday's 18-month high. Price is now retesting the 83,029–83,081 zone where the late-NY swing high capped the bounce. RSI(14) is near 60, with no extreme.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83,081 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence from 84,258.
Failure to hold the 82,712 micro low exposes the 82,264 ny low, which sits near 38.2% of the Asia rally.
A move back below the 80,965 sweep low resumes the lower-low chain.
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and the London open could shift the read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.
03:18 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling · RSI 57 · price 82,778.84
Lower highs intact; V-rebound from Asia low capped at 61.8% fib.
Asia session swept to the 80,965 asia low, then a V-shaped rebound retraced to the 61.8% level of the 84,258 day high to 80,965 decline, stalling at the 83,030 asia high just under the 83,080 lower high from late NY. RSI(14) has cooled to ~57 as the rebound fades, with no BTC-specific catalyst and a firm USD in the background.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,080 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 84,258 day high
Failure to hold the 50% fib near 82,610 puts the 82,264 ny low back in focus, with the 80,965 asia low below
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC around London open and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
03:04 UTC
V-shaped recovery off Asia low, momentum firm · RSI 70 · price 82,829.78
Sweep to 80965 reclaimed, testing swing high.
The overnight slide from the 83081 swing high swept the prior lows and bottomed at the 80965 Asia low after midnight UTC. Price has since recovered about 88% of the drop as the USD eased in Asia, clearing the lower-high line from the 84258 day high, with RSI(14) near 70 and the 83030–83081 area now capping.
Support: 82,630.00, 82,270.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 83,081.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83081 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84258 day high
Slip back below the fib 78.6 at 82630, then the 82270 prior lows, would fade the Asia recovery
Re-test of the 80965 Asia low would turn the sweep into a lower-low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and DXY around 102.50 could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
V-recovery from swing low testing asia high; lower highs intact.
Asia session rebounded about 1,850 from the 80,965 swing low set at the NY-Asia handover. It reclaimed the 82,300 prior lows and is now testing the 82,849 asia high, beyond 78.6% of the fib drop from the 83,081 ny high. RSI(14) is near 66, not stretched, and Monday's lower highs (84,258 → 83,081) are still intact against a firm-USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,081 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 82,849 asia high, followed by a loss of the rebound line, points to a deeper fib retrace toward the 82,023 fib 50%
Failure to hold 82,300 prior lows reopens the 80,965 swing low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD and BTC tone; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
02:33 UTC
Downtrend of lower highs, sharp Asia rebound · RSI 64 · price 82,721.90
Lower highs 84,258 then 83,082; V-shaped recovery from the 80,965 Asia low.
A firm USD and risk-off tone kept BTC on lower highs from 84,258 into the NY session. The selloff extended to an Asia low at 80,965, where the move was rejected and price rebounded sharply. Price has reclaimed the prior lows near 82,300 and is pressing the Asia session high at 82,783, with RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
A close above the 83,082 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 82,300 prior lows puts the 50% fib of the NY-Asia drop near 82,020 back in play, then the Asia low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD and this read; US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
02:18 UTC
Downtrend, sharp Asia rebound · RSI 59 · price 82,645.98
Lower highs from 84,258; V-shaped recovery off 80,965 now retesting the breakdown point.
The late-NY slide from the 83,080 NY high flushed to an 80,965 swing low early in the Asia session, with the firm USD backdrop (DXY at highs) behind the drop. A six-bar V-rebound has reclaimed the 82,300 NY lows and retraced about 78.6% of the drop. Price is now retesting the 82,710 breakdown point, and lower highs from 84,258 are still intact.
What it said to watch
Close above the 82,710 breakdown pt opens a run at the 83,080 NY high and breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at 82,710 followed by a loss of the 82,300 NY lows puts the 81,720 prior shelf and the 80,965 swing low back in focus
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC (London session) could shift USD tone and this read, with US CPI on Wed as the larger risk
02:05 UTC
Downtrend, sharp Asia rebound · RSI 58 · price 82,360.30
Lower highs from the London-open peak; V-shaped rebound off the Asian low testing the breakdown shelf.
Lower highs from the 84258 London-open peak capped every bounce. After the NY close the slide extended to an Asian low at 80965 as the firm USD weighed, then a V-shaped rebound reclaimed the 61.8% fib of the 83082–80965 leg and the 82265 NY low. RSI(14) is near 58, with price above EMA20 but still below EMA50 and the 82708 breakdown shelf.
Support: 82,265.00, 82,000.00, 80,964.84
Resistance: 82,708.00, 83,081.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82265 NY low and then the 82000 round number puts the 80965 Asian low back in view
M15 close above the 82708 breakdown shelf opens the 83082 swing high; a break there ends the lower highs sequence
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC (London morning) could shift USD and this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
01:48 UTC
Downtrend, sharp counter-rally off the low · RSI 57 · price 82,318.35
Lower highs from 84258; early-Asia sweep to 80965, V-rebound now testing the ema50.
Lower highs ran from the 84258 Monday Asia peak through the 83081 ny high, and price dropped into the Asia session to a sweep of the 81205 lows at 80965. The pressure comes from a firm USD with no crypto catalyst. The V-shaped rebound has cleared the 61.8% fib of the NY-high-to-low leg and reclaimed the ema20. At 82318 it is now testing the ema50 near 82410, with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 82,060.00, 81,780.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 82,410.00, 82,708.00, 83,081.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 82410 and the 82708 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83081 ny high in view
Rejection at 82410 with a slip back below the ema20 at 82060 keeps the downtrend read; rebound base at 81780 is the next floor, then the 80965 swing low
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC: hawkish hike signalling or further USD strength could stall the rebound
01:33 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia rebound off the lows · RSI 41 · price 81,980.72
Lower highs from 84258; NY floor broken, V-bounce testing it from below.
After the NY close, BTC broke the 82264–82300 ny floor on firm-USD flow, with DXY at YTD highs after hawkish remarks from Hammack. That break led to an early-Asia flush to a session low at 80965. The rebound has reclaimed the 81700 shelf and is stalling near the 50% fib at about 82020, with the 82120 bounce high capping and RSI(14) recovering to 41.
Support: 81,700.00, 81,210.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 82,120.00, 82,300.00, 82,708.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 82300 ny floor, which aligns with the 61.8% fib, would turn the Asia flush into a false break
Rejection under the 82120 bounce high plus loss of the 81700 shelf reopens the 81210 base and 80965 session low
The lower-highs line and the 82708 lower high cap the day-long downtrend structure
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and any further DXY gains ahead of Wed CPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs / lower lows; Asia sweep to 80965 reversed into the 38.2% fib.
After a London-to-NY slide from 84258, the 82270 range floor gave way after the NY close, and early Asia swept to an 80965 swing low before one 400+ point reversal bar reclaimed the 38.2% fib near 81775. RSI(14) has recovered to ~43 from sub-25, but the lower-high sequence under the descending line from 84258 is intact, with a bid USD (DXY ~102.4–102.6) as the backdrop.
Support: 81,205.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 81,870.00, 82,020.00, 82,270.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 81870 asia high and the fib 50% at 82020 opens a retest of the 82270 range floor
A failure back below the 81205 shelf exposes the 80965 swing low
The descending line from 84258 sits near 82350; a break above it would undo the lower-high read
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next USD catalyst ahead of Wed's US CPI
01:05 UTC
Downtrend, extended into Asia open · RSI 25 · price 81,421.33
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 84,258; latest bar rejected 80,965 session low.
Selling resumed after the 83,081 swing high late in the NY session and pressed through the Asia open, as a firm USD and risk-off flows weigh with no BTC-specific catalyst. The latest bar printed a long lower wick off the 80,965 session low with RSI(14) near 25. The 81,869 lower high is the first cap overhead.
What it said to watch
Holding below the 81,869 lower high keeps the lower-high chain intact; the 38.2% fib near 81,773 sits just under it
Failure to hold the 81,205 minor low, then the 80,965 session low, extends the leg toward the 80,000 round number
A close back above the 82,191 breakdown level negates the late-session impulse lower
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC Tue could shift USD and this read
Price has made a lower-high chain from the 84258 London-open peak to 83081, the lower high, as a firm USD (DXY ~102.35) weighs. The late NY slide broke the 82264–82300 range floor, and Asia has pressed to an 81205 session low with RSI(14) near 23 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 81,204.57, 81,000.00
Resistance: 82,264.40
What it said to watch
A close back above 81690, the prior low, would show the breakdown stalling
A reclaim of the 82264 range floor negates the range break
Losing the 81200 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 81000 round number
A rebound into the 81920–82140 retrace zone of the slide that stalls under the lower highs line keeps the sequence intact
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC Tue could shift USD tone and this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 23 · price 81,306.46
Lower highs and lower lows; NY low broken, new session low in early Asia.
Lower highs at 84258 and the 83081 lower high frame the day. Late in the NY session price broke the 82264 NY low, then slipped through the 81700 prior shelf to an 81219 session low in early Asia. RSI(14) sits near 23, while a firm USD near year-to-date highs on hawkish Fed talk weighs in the absence of BTC-specific news.
Support: 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,700.00, 82,264.40
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81219 session low exposes the 81000 round number
Recovery above the 81700 prior shelf, near the 38.2% of the late-NY leg fib (~81930), would ease the lower-low sequence
An M15 close back above the 82264 NY low invalidates the range break
Lower-high trendline from 84258 capping rallies keeps the downtrend structure intact
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the USD-driven read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
00:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower lows into early Asia · RSI 27 · price 81,519.23
Broke NY-session floor at 82264, lower-high chain from 84258.
Lower highs have stepped down from the 84258 London-open high along a descending trendline. The 82264–82300 floor held through NY hours but gave way after NY close, and the drop extended into the early Asia session to a swing low at 81219. A bid USD (DXY near YTD highs, hawkish Hammack) frames the selling; RSI(14) ~27 is soft but not at an extreme.
Support: 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,722.00, 82,264.40
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81219 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81000 round number
M15 close back above the 81722 prior low would stall the breakdown
Recovery through the 82264 broken floor, near the 61.8% fib of the late-NY leg, negates the range-break read
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 26 · price 81,832.88
Lower-high chain from 84258; late-NY break of the prior low to a new session low.
A firm USD and hawkish Fedspeak kept BTC heavy. The drop to 82410 came in the bar spanning Hammack's 16:50 UTC remarks, and the late-NY rally failed at the 83081 swing high before a selloff broke the 82264 prior low and printed a session low at 81687. Early Asia session is holding just above that low, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 81,687.04, 81,500.00
Resistance: 82,000.00, 82,264.40, 82,384.30
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81687 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81500 round number
M15 close back above the 82264 prior low would turn the late-NY break into a false break
On a rebound, the 82000 round number and fib 50% at 82384 are areas to watch for rejection; the lower-high trendline sits near 82800
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk