19:09 UTC
Macro downtrend, basing with first weekly close back above EMA50 · RSI 58 · price 80,854.96
12-month range 57,700-82,700; higher low off the June base, price pressing the range top.
The dominant structure remains the decline from the Q4 high at 126,174 into a 57,700-82,700 range that has contained price for four quarters; the Feb low at 60,039 and the June low at 57,741 form a rough double bottom and the two-month advance off the 65,400 prior base has carried price back to the range top. Last week closed at 80,855, marginally above the W1 EMA50 near 79,850 — the first weekly close above that macro filter since the autumn breakdown — while RSI at 58 sits mid-range and carries no extreme signal at this scale. The backdrop is a re-tightening Fed (hike to 4%, 2026 dot revised to 4.1%), the same liquidity regime that framed the year-long downtrend, so the recovery is unfolding inside the base rather than beyond it.
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above the 82,700 range top would end the four-quarter range read and open the path toward the 90,400 prior high
- Loss of the w1 ema50 at 79,850 and a close back under the 74,900 swing low returns price to the middle of the base
- A weekly close back below the 65,400 prior base would re-expose the 57,700 range floor
- US flash PMIs on 23 Sep and the dense Fed speaker slate are the macro catalysts that could reshape this regime read