Double bottom base resolved higher; higher highs and higher lows since Thursday.
The week opened with a grind lower from 79,028 into the 74,902/74,940 double bottom carved out Wednesday and Thursday, and price then based between roughly 75,400 and 76,700 for a day and a half. Friday's NY session produced the dominant move of the week: a single-bar expansion through the 78,345 pre-brk high and on to 81,241, the week high, helped by a softer US industrial production print taking the edge off a dollar sitting at a 7-week high. Price is holding the upper end of that impulse above 81,000 round number, well clear of EMA(20) near 79,200, with RSI(14) near 78 — the most stretched reading of the window.
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 81,241 week high would extend the breakout leg; repeated failure there sets up a rejection read
Loss of the 80,378 post-brk low would be the first lower-low since Friday's expansion
A close back below EMA(20) at ~79,200 would put the pre-brk high at 78,345 back in play and question the breakout
Dense Fed speaker slate Mon-Tue and US flash PMIs on 23 Sep are the next macro catalysts capable of reshaping this structure
Range break from a two-day base, higher highs and higher lows since Thursday.
The week opened near 78,890 and sold off through Monday and Tuesday's NY hours to 74,902, then spent roughly two days basing in a 75,300–76,500 range before grinding back above the weekly open. The dominant move arrived in Friday's NY session: a single hour ran 77,931 to 80,342 and follow-through tagged the week high at 81,099, with soft US industrial production (0.0% vs 0.3%) offering marginal relief against the hawkish post-FOMC backdrop. Price is holding well above the EMA20 near 79,010 with RSI(14) above 80, so the last four hours have been sideways digestion between 80,378 and the 81,000 round number rather than continuation.
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the 80,378 breakout low would mark the first lower low since the impulse began
Loss of the 79,941 impulse base would put the move back inside the pre-breakout 78,300 area
RSI(14) above 80 while price stalls under 81,100 week high — a rejection there keeps the digestion read intact
Dense Fed speaker slate 21–22 Sep and US flash PMIs on 23 Sep are the next macro catalysts for this structure
18:06 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive but stretched · RSI 80 · price 80,768.05
Range break, higher lows since Wednesday's 74,902 low.
After two days compressed between roughly 75,400 and 76,900, price ground higher through yesterday's NY session and then accelerated sharply in today's NY hours, clearing the 78,345 pre-break high and the 77,845 break base in a single 2,500-point bar before stalling at the 81,100 week high. The move is macro-driven rather than coin-specific: post-FOMC de-risking has dominated the week, and today's soft US industrial production print (0.0% vs 0.3%) took some edge off the dollar, fuelling a squeeze-style rebound. RSI(14) near 80 and price roughly 2,000 points above EMA(20) around 78,800 show how extended the last three hours have become.
What it said to watch
Repeated failure at the 81,100 week high with RSI holding above 80 would mark the impulse as exhausted
An hourly close below the 80,432 session low would be the first sign the breakout leg is being retraced
Loss of the 77,845 break base would invalidate the range-break read and put the mid-week consolidation back in play
Fed speaker slate from Monday (Goolsbee 10:30 UTC) is the first test of whether this bounce extends
The week opened near 78,830 and post-FOMC de-risking dragged price to 74,902 before a two-day base formed between roughly 75,300 and 76,700. That base gave way during today's NY session, with a single hourly candle running from 77,930 to 80,342 and the extension tagging 81,099 — the week high and by far the largest hourly ranges of the window; the soft US industrial production print (0.0% vs 0.3%) removed the immediate hawkish input that had capped rebounds. Price is well above EMA20 near 77,900 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 79 after the vertical move.
What it said to watch
RSI(14) near 80 leaves the move stretched; a pullback that holds the 80,000 round number keeps the impulse structure intact
Hourly close back under the 78,300 breakout lvl would frame the move as a false break of the two-day base
Failure to reclaim 81,099 week high on a second attempt would mark it as a rejection point
Fed speaker slate from Monday and Wednesday's flash PMIs are the next macro inputs that could reshape this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's 74,902 low, vertical break of the week's range top.
After two days compressing in a 75,400–76,700 band, price broke the range top through the NY session and added roughly 3,000 points in three hours, printing the week high at 81,000.80. Price sits well clear of EMA20 (~78,374) and EMA50 (~77,443) with RSI(14) near 82, the most stretched reading of the 4-day window. The move came against the week's hawkish Fed backdrop, helped at the margin by today's soft Industrial Production print (0.0% vs 0.3%), and the last hour has stalled just under the high.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 79,941 break base would flag a false break of the range top
Acceptance above the 81,000.80 week high opens the path toward the 82,000 round number
A pullback into the rising ema20 near 78,374 would test whether the higher-lows sequence stays intact
Fed speaker cluster Monday–Tuesday and Wednesday's flash PMIs are the next macro events capable of reshaping this structure
The week's low came on Wednesday's FOMC bar at 74,902, after which BTC built a two-day base between roughly 75,300 and the 76,700 range top with no crypto-specific catalyst — macro, not flow, has been setting direction. Thursday's high at 78,346 gave way early Friday and the move went vertical into the NY open, adding ~2,900 points in two hours to print 80,908, with the flat 0.0% Industrial Production miss the only released datapoint alongside the softer growth mix. RSI(14) near 78 and ATR expansion show the move is stretched, while the rising EMA(20) near 78,150 has been left far behind.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 79,940 surge base would put the breakout back inside the prior structure
Loss of Thursday's 78,346 high would mark the expansion as a false break of the base
Failure to clear 81,000 psych after tagging the 80,908 session high would define the immediate ceiling
Fed speaker slate Monday and Wednesday's flash PMIs are the macro events that could reset this read
14:05 UTC
Uptrend, vertical impulse into NY · RSI 85 · price 80,205.67
Week range broken; higher lows since Wednesday's low.
After the hawkish FOMC repricing dragged price to 74,902 on Wednesday, BTCUSD spent Thursday basing between 75,400 and 76,500 and then built higher lows through the Asia and London sessions on Friday before a single NY-hours bar ripped from 77,845 to a week high at 80,342.52 — a clean break of the Monday-to-Thursday range with no fresh crypto headline behind it, only a soft US industrial production print (0.0% vs 0.3%) trimming the post-Fed impulse. Price is roughly 2,600 points above EMA(20) and above EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 85 after a near-vertical move. The 80,000 round number and the 78,144.94 prior high are the first structural references beneath the market.
What it said to watch
Immediate acceptance or rejection around the 80,342.52 week high defines whether the breakout extends
Loss of the 80,000 round number and an H1 close back under the 78,144.94 prior high would frame the Friday spike as a false break
RSI(14) near 85 with price stretched from EMA(20) — first pullback toward the 77,845.27 spike base tests the breakout
Dense Fed speaker slate from Monday and flash US PMIs Wed 23 Sep are the macro risk to a read that is currently rate-driven
Higher highs and higher lows since the week low, retracing the week's decline.
Price has clawed back roughly two thirds of the week's 79478 to 74902 slide, with the double bottom near 74900 giving way to a steady higher-low sequence and an impulsive leg through the NY session yesterday that broke the 76830 prior range and never revisited it. With no crypto-specific catalyst, the tape has been a macro proxy: the hawkish FOMC hike and Thursday's firm claims and Philly Fed capped the earlier bounce attempts, and the recovery has come on consolidation rather than fresh news. Pullbacks are holding above the rising EMA(20) near 77430 while the day high at 78345 has capped the last four bars, with RSI(14) at 71 the highest reading of the window.
Support: 77,530.00, 77,430.00, 76,830.00
Resistance: 78,345.00, 78,805.00, 79,478.00
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below 77530, the breakout low, would break the higher-low sequence off the week low
Acceptance above the 78345 day high opens the path to the 78805 swing high and then the 79478 week high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the last US data point of the week and lands inside this bar; a beat would re-validate the hawkish dot path
Loss of the EMA20 at 77430 on a closing basis would flatten the recovery read back into the 76830 prior range
Double bottom at 74,900 then higher lows; Friday impulse stalling under day high.
Monday's session opened near 77,600 and rolled over into the hawkish FOMC, with the week low printed twice at 74,900 on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings — a double bottom that held. Thursday consolidated in a tight 76,100–77,000 band before the Asia–London stretch on Friday broke it, taking price above EMA20 and EMA50 into the 78,345 day high, retracing roughly two-thirds of the week's decline; the hawkish dot plot remains the backdrop cap on liquidity-sensitive upside. RSI(14) is near 71 as the last two bars stall, so the rally is running into the Monday high shelf at 78,584 with the pullback yet to find the ema20.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 78,345 day high opens the path toward 78,584 mon high
Loss of 77,526 session low and a close under the 77,250 ema20 would break the Friday higher-lows sequence
Failure to hold 76,183 fri low would put the double bottom structure back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the only near-term scheduled risk; Wednesday's flash PMIs are the bigger catalyst
Higher highs and higher lows since the FOMC spike low; Thursday's range ceiling broken.
The week's dominant move was the Wednesday FOMC hour, where the hawkish dot-plot repricing drove a 1,500-point bar and a window low at 74,902; price has since recovered for three sessions and is now back above both EMA(20) at 77,280 and EMA(50). Today's leg came in the Asia session and extended through London, clearing Thursday's 76,690 range top and printing a session high at 78,345 — roughly a 71% retracement of the FOMC drop. RSI(14) at 83 is the most stretched reading of the window, and the last two hours have stalled just under the session high rather than extending.
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC falls inside the next bars; a firm print has been the type of data capping liquidity-sensitive recovery attempts this week
Reaction at the 78,584 prior high — area to monitor for rejection or continuation toward the 79,000 psych level
An H1 close back below the 77,280 ema20 would break the run of higher lows built since the FOMC low
Loss of 76,690 range top would put the whole post-FOMC recovery back inside Thursday's range
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's FOMC low, now testing the week's supply shelf.
Monday's push to the 79478 week high unwound into Wednesday's FOMC session, where the hawkish dot-plot revision alongside the in-line 4.00% hike drove the flush to 74902 before the market based through Thursday's Asia hours. Price has since ground out a sequence of higher lows off 76144 and accelerated through the Asia–London transition today, clearing the prior range near 76500 and running into the 78345 session high with RSI(14) near 78. EMA20 at 77185 has been the pivot for every pullback since the recovery began and sits roughly 900 points below spot — the gap between price and that average is the widest of the week.
Support: 77,185.00, 76,500.00, 76,144.00
Resistance: 78,345.00, 78,805.00, 79,478.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 78345 session high would put the 78805 mon swing and the 79478 week high back in play
An hourly close back below the 77185 ema20 would break the higher-low sequence off 76144
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.3%) is the only scheduled catalyst this session and a firm print reinforces the hawkish rates backdrop
RSI(14) near 78 with price extended from ema20 leaves the advance vulnerable to mean reversion rather than immediate continuation
Higher lows since Tuesday's base; 76,900 range top cleared.
Monday's 79,478 week high gave way to a two-day slide into Tuesday's 74,902 week low, the hawkish Fed hike and upgraded dot plot doing the damage for a high-beta rates asset. Since then H1 has carved a double bottom and a sequence of higher lows, and the Asia session cleared the 76,900 range top to close at 77,696 with RSI(14) near 72 and EMA20 around 76,930 acting as the pullback reference. The advance now sits on the 61.8% retracement of the week's impulse near 77,730, immediately under the 77,810 prior low left behind on Tuesday.
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 77,810 prior low would expose the 78,345 swing high
Rejection here with a close back under EMA20 at ~76,930 would put the 76,144 prior-day low back in focus and break the higher-low sequence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the only scheduled catalyst into the weekend; firm US data has been the driver of this week's downside
Failure to hold 76,144 would re-open the 74,902 week low
Double bottom near 74,900 then higher lows; Thursday range top broken.
The week opened with a push to 79,478 in Monday's NY session, then unwound through Tuesday and Wednesday as the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision hit high-beta risk, printing 74,940 and 74,902 lows in consecutive NY sessions — a double bottom that has since held. Thursday was pure base-building between 76,100 and the 77,020 range top, and the Friday Asia session finally cleared it, with the London open extending to a 77,550 session high. Price is trading above both EMA(20) near 76,850 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) around 73 — the most stretched reading of the week.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 77,020 range top would place the range break back inside Thursday's 76,100-77,020 band
Failure to hold the ema20 near 76,850 on a pullback would end the higher-lows sequence off the double bottom
Acceptance above the 77,550 session high opens the path toward the 77,970 prior high
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC are both inside the next few bars and could reprice this recovery leg
Double-bottom base, higher lows since Thursday, breaking the range top.
Price rolled from 79478 early in the week to 74902 as the hawkish FOMC hike and the upgraded dot plot tightened the liquidity backdrop, but the two matched lows at 74940 and 74902 built a double bottom that has held all of Thursday. The Asia session has driven a clean push through the 76.5k range top to a session high at 77550, with price now above both EMA20 (76745) and EMA50 and RSI(14) up near 68 for the first time since Monday. Higher lows have been stacking since Thursday's base, and the prior swing shelf at 77860 into 78156 is the next area to watch for rejection or acceptance.
Support: 76,745.00, 76,144.00
Resistance: 77,550.00, 77,860.00, 78,156.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 77550 then 77860 would extend the recovery toward the 78156 prior high
Loss of EMA20 at 76745 and a close back under 76144 prior low would restore the week's downtrend structure
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.3%) can reprice this bounce quickly
Failure to hold above the broken range top on a retest would mark the move as a false break
05:06 UTC
Downtrend from Monday's high, near-term momentum turning up · RSI 69 · price 77,454.70
Double-bottom base at 74.9k, breakout above the Thursday range top.
The dominant move of the week was the post-FOMC slide through the Wednesday NY session, from 79,478 down to 74,902 as the higher dot plot repriced the rate path against high-beta assets. Thursday then coiled in a 76,100–76,900 band, and the Asia session into Friday has pushed price through that range top and back above both the EMA20 near 76,690 and the EMA50, with the second low at 74,902 matching 74,940 to leave a double-bottom base. RSI(14) has cycled from the low 30s to the high 60s on this leg, and price now sits right at the weekly open around 77,523.
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 76,900 range top would negate the breakout and return price into Thursday's band
Acceptance above the weekly open at 77,523 opens the path toward the monday high near 77,970
Loss of 76,144, the day low, would re-establish lower lows and put the 74,902 base back in play
BoJ decision pre-London, Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC can all reset this read within the next few bars
Four-day base broken upward; higher lows since Wednesday's low.
Monday's session high at 79,478 gave way to a three-day slide into Wednesday's 74,902 low, and price then spent four sessions basing between there and the 76,965 range top — a ceiling that has just been cleared, with the Asia session extending to a day high of 77,441. Price now sits above EMA(20) at 76,592 and above EMA(50) for the first time since Monday, with RSI(14) near 71 after cycling in the 35-55 band all week. The hawkish 4.00% hike and the upgraded dot plot framed the week's downside, and today's claims and Philly Fed beats failed to extend it, leaving the base intact.
What it said to watch
An H1 close back under the 76,965 range top would mark the move as a false break
Failure to hold the 76,144 day low would confirm a lower low and end the higher-lows sequence
77,832 prior low from Monday is the next area above to monitor for rejection or acceptance
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC land within the next few bars and could reshape this read
03:05 UTC
Downtrend from Monday's high, now stabilising · RSI 57 · price 76,837.38
Double bottom near 74.9k, higher lows since Wednesday's NY low, still well below the week high.
The week's dominant move was the slide from Monday's late-NY high at 79478 into Wednesday's post-FOMC low at 74902, driven by the hawkish dot-plot revision and the follow-up claims and Philly Fed beats that reinforced a tighter-for-longer path. Since that low price has carved a double bottom against the 74940 print and built a sequence of higher lows, reclaiming both the EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the 45-60 band rather than pressing lows. Thursday's NY range capped at 76965 (prior day hi) and the current Asia session is grinding back into that shelf with the day low at 76144 intact.
Support: 76,144.00, 75,604.00
Resistance: 76,965.00, 77,259.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 76965 prior day hi would extend the higher-low sequence toward the 77259 swing high
Loss of the 76144 day low and the ema20 would break the recovery sequence off 74902
Failure to hold the 75604 swing low would put the 74.9k double bottom back in play
Fed's Bowman 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC could reset this read inside the session
Lower highs from Monday's peak, but higher lows building since the FOMC low.
The week's dominant move was down: from Monday's 79478 high price shed roughly 4,500 points into the 74902 week low on the FOMC reaction bar, with the hawkish dot-plot upgrade to a 4.1% first-year path the driver. Since then H1 has gone sideways in a 76144–76965 band, printing a sequence of higher lows off 75604 while the prior day hi at 76965 has capped every attempt. Price is back above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-50s, so the immediate impulse has flattened into consolidation rather than reversed.
Support: 76,144.00, 75,604.00
Resistance: 76,965.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the prior day hi at 76965 would extend the retest toward the 77258 wed high and question the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 76144 range low, then the 75604 higher low, would re-engage the move toward the 74902 week low
Fed's Bowman 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.3%) fall inside the next few H1 bars and can break this consolidation either way
Failure of EMA20 to hold on the next pullback would remove the support that has underpinned the higher lows
Lower highs from Monday's peak, higher lows since Wednesday's flush — compression.
The week's dominant move was down: from Monday's 79,478 peak price ground lower through Tuesday's NY session and flushed to 74,900 on the Wednesday FOMC bar, where the hawkish dot-plot revision (2026 median 4.1% from 3.6%) landed alongside an in-line hike. Since then price has built higher lows and reclaimed the H1 EMA(20) near 76,470, but Thursday's NY attempt stalled at 77,057 and the Asia session has narrowed into a 76,145–76,970 band with RSI(14) mid-50s. Thursday's strong claims (196K) and Philly Fed (37.8) kept the recovery capped well below the 50% retracement of the week's decline.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 76,970 range top would end the compression read and expose 77,260 prior high
Loss of the 76,145 range floor re-opens 75,605 swing low and the 74,900 week low
Fed's Bowman 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC fall inside the next few H1 bars and can break this range either way
Lower highs since Monday, higher lows since Wednesday — range compressing.
Price has been marked down all week from Monday's NY-session high at 79478, with the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision accelerating the slide into Wednesday's NY hours where 74902 week low was printed just under Tuesday's 74940 low before an immediate reclaim. Thursday's recovery stalled twice: the 77057 prior-day hi was rejected inside the first hour of NY and the 76690 thu swing hi capped the late-session attempt. Friday's Asia session is drifting lower again, with the last close at 76284 sitting under the ema cluster around 76400 (EMA20 76382, EMA50 76448) and RSI(14) back near 48 after failing to clear 60 on the bounce.
Support: 76,096.00, 75,603.00, 74,902.00
Resistance: 76,400.00, 76,690.00, 77,057.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema cluster near 76400 would reopen 76690 thu swing hi and the 77057 prior-day hi
Loss of 76096 thu low breaks the series of higher lows and shifts focus to 75603 swing low
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC fall inside the next few H1 bars and could reset this consolidation