BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 24 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Sideways after NY rebound, range contracting · RSI 57 · price 84,249.22
Pennant: lower highs from 84,495 vs higher lows from 83,719.
The rally from the 82,802 London low peaked at the 84,749 day high in NY. Since then price has compressed into a pennant, with a lower high at 84,362 and higher lows at 83,719 and 83,823. Price sits just above EMA20 into the Asia session with RSI(14) near 57. The 84,000 round number lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the rally, while hawkish US data beats have capped follow-through.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,362 lower high breaks the pennant top and exposes the 84,495 swing high, then the 84,749 day high
Loss of the 84,000 round number and the 83,823 swing low breaks the pennant base and the higher-low sequence, with the 83,719 higher low and the 50% rally retrace next
Fri: Williams 09:15 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:33 UTC
Range after NY reversal, momentum neutral · RSI 56 · price 84,280.18
Compression between 83720 and 84495: lower highs from 84749, higher low at 83823.
London's early spike to 84500 failed into a sweep down to 82802. NY then reversed the move to a 84749 session high, despite the firm US data run that the macro read flags as a BTC headwind, and price has since compressed with a lower high at 84495, a higher low at 83823 and the 38.2–50% fib zone holding. The late-NY bounce off the 84100 pivot has lifted price to 84280, just under the 84360 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 84,100.00, 83,822.69, 83,718.80
Resistance: 84,360.00, 84,494.95, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84360 Asian high reopens the 84495 lower high, and beyond it the 84749 session high
Loss of the 84100 pivot exposes the 83823 higher low; a break there puts the 83719 NY low and 50% fib back in play
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC Friday, could break the compression either way
23:17 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 45 · price 84,129.35
Compressing range 83,720–84,750 below descending highs.
The London low at 82,802 was fully reclaimed during NY hours, but twin rejections near the 84,749 day high gave way to lower highs at the 84,495 swing high and the 84,362 lower high as hawkish US data kept rates pressure on. Price is coiling near 84,130 into the Asia session, holding above the 83,823 swing low with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,362 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs trendline and puts the 84,495 swing high back in play
Failure to hold the 83,823 swing low exposes the 83,719 pullback low, sitting near the 50% fib of the London low to day high rally
Loss of the 50% fib zone reopens the 82,802 london low
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84749 against rising lows from 83240, compressing near 84100.
London open flushed below the Asian range to the 82802 day low before the NY session reclaimed it and printed the 84749 day high. Since then price has compressed between lower highs at the 84495 swing high and the 84362 lower high, and rising lows at the 83719 prior low and the 83823 swing low. Price sits near 84130 into the Asia session with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and a hawkish US data run acting as a mild headwind.
Support: 83,822.69, 83,718.80, 82,801.81
Resistance: 84,362.09, 84,494.95, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84362 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 84495 swing high and the 84749 day high back into view
Failure to hold the 83823 swing low breaks the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 83719 prior low
A move back toward the 82802 day low would put the London-session low back in play
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then durables and UoM inflation expectations Friday, could shift this read via yields and the USD
22:47 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 42 · price 83,999.49
Lower-high sequence from 84,749 session high; lows holding 83,720–83,820.
After NY close, price is drifting lower from the 84,749 session high. Lower highs at 84,495 and 84,362 cap price along a descending trendline, and it now sits on 84,000, the 38.2% fib of the 82,802–84,749 rally. Hawkish-Fed tone after this week's strong US data leaves rates-sensitive BTC heavy into Asia, with RSI(14) near 42 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,823 swing low exposes the 83,719 prior low and the 50% fib near 83,775
Close above the 84,362 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens 84,495
Rejection at 84,749 session high for a second time would firm the range top
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84749 day high, price at 38.2% of day rally.
Price has made lower highs at 84749 (day high), 84495 (prior high) and 84362 (lower high) since the NY rally off London's 82802 low, with a firm USD and a hawkish Fed chorus in the background. The latest leg was a rejection from 84362 into an 83823 late low. Price now sits near 84005, the 38.2% retracement of the day rally. RSI(14) sits near 38 as Asia opens.
Support: 83,823.00, 83,719.00, 83,240.00
Resistance: 84,362.00, 84,495.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83823 late low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 83719 swing low and 83545 (61.8% of the day rally)
Loss of 83545 exposes the 83240 spike low from the NY-hours reversal
M15 close above the 84362 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens 84495 prior high / 84749 day high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift the rates read into London
22:17 UTC
Sideways after NY recovery, compressing · RSI 46 · price 84,180.29
Lower highs vs higher lows, contracting range around 84200.
The London sell-off to 82802 fully reversed in NY despite another round of hawkish US data (claims beat, USD bid), topping at the 84749 session high. Since then, lower highs at 84495 (late NY high) and 84362 have met higher lows at 84020 (swing low) and 84106, compressing price near 84180 into a thin early-Asia tape with RSI flat mid-40s.
Support: 84,020.47, 83,718.80
Resistance: 84,362.09, 84,494.95, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84362 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 84495 late NY high, then the 84749 session high
Failure to hold the 84020 swing low reopens the 83719 NY pullback low
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read via yields and USD
22:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing below day high · RSI 46 · price 84,146.33
Lower highs vs higher lows since the 84749 NY high.
NY session was rejected twice near the 84749 day high after recovering from the 82802 London session low. Since then price has compressed between lower highs at 84495 and 84362 and higher lows at 83719 and 84020, slipping back under EMA20 into the Asia open with RSI(14) neutral near 46, while hot US data and a firm USD keep rallies contained; the 84020 swing low sits on the fib 38.2% of the 82802–84749 recovery.
Support: 84,020.47, 83,718.80, 82,801.81
Resistance: 84,362.09, 84,494.95, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
Break below the 84020 swing low / fib 38.2% exposes the 83719 higher low near the 50% retracement
M15 close above the 84362 lower high, then the 84495 prior high, invalidates the compression read and reopens the day high
Loss of 83719 turns the structure into a lower-low sequence back toward the 82802 session low
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Fri could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Recovering from London low, coiling late session · RSI 55 · price 84,341.12
Higher lows vs lower highs below session high, contracting.
Post-NY trade is coiling below the 84749 session high after the full recovery from the 82802 London low, despite the hawkish US data run. Higher lows at 83719 and 84020, both near the 38.2–50% fib of that move, sit against a 84495 lower high. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 84,020.47, 83,718.80
Resistance: 84,494.95, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
Close above the 84495 lower high breaks the contraction and brings the 84749 session high back into view
Loss of the 84020 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 83719 higher low
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
21:33 UTC
Recovered from London-open flush, now compressing · RSI 56 · price 84,282.18
Pennant: lower highs from 84749, higher lows from 83719.
The London-open flush to 82,802, set against a firm USD after hawkish Fed talk and strong US data, was fully retraced during NY hours to a session high at 84,749. Since then price has compressed into a pennant, with a lower high at 84,495 and a higher low at 84,020 above the 83,719 swing low. RSI(14) sits near 56, mid-range, in thin post-NY trade.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,495 lower high breaks the pennant top and opens the 84,749 session high
Failure to hold the 84,020 higher low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 83,719 swing low
Williams (09:15 UTC) and durables (12:30 UTC) on Friday are the next macro inputs; until then the pennant is likely to be driven by thin liquidity
21:18 UTC
Range after NY recovery, momentum neutral · RSI 54 · price 84,237.23
Lower high 84495 and higher low 84020 compressing below the 84749 session high.
London took out the Asian low near 83608 and ran to 82802. NY then recovered to a 84749 session high despite the hawkish US data run. Since then, a lower high at 84495 and a higher low at 84020, near 38.2% of the rally, have squeezed price into a pennant, with RSI(14) flat at 54 and price holding just above ema20.
Support: 84,020.00, 83,719.00
Resistance: 84,495.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84495 lower high breaks the pennant top and puts the 84749 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 84020 higher low exposes the 83719 swing low and the 50% zone of the 82802–84749 rally
Williams 09:15 UTC, durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
21:08 UTC
Recovered London drop, now compressing · RSI 54 · price 84,250.22
Lower highs from NY high, higher lows beneath.
London's slide from 84500 to the 82802 low fit the firm-USD tone after the PMI and claims beats. The NY session recovered the whole move to the 84749 NY high, and price has since coiled into a pennant, with a lower high at 84495 and higher lows at 83719 (50% fib zone) and 84020 (swing low). Price is at 84250 after the NY close, just above EMA20.
Support: 84,020.47, 83,718.80
Resistance: 84,494.95, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84020 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 83719 50% fib zone
M15 close above the 84495 lower high breaks pennant resistance and reopens the 84749 NY high
Fri: Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows since 16:30 UTC session high; tightening coil mid-range.
London open flushed below the Asian low (~83,608) to 82,802 before NY hours reversed it to a 84,749 session high. That came against a firm USD and hawkish-leaning US data. Late NY, price is coiling between a 84,495 lower high and a 84,020 higher low, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR near 255 USD.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,495 lower high breaks the compression and brings the 84,749 session high back into view
Failure to hold the 84,020 higher low reopens the 83,719 swing low from 18:00 UTC
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
20:34 UTC
Two-way, compressing after volatile NY · RSI 44 · price 84,103.38
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range.
London's push over the asian high at 84360 failed and reversed to 82802. NY recovered it despite the firm USD tape after the claims beat, peaking at the 84749 session high. Late NY is now compressing between a lower high at 84495 and higher lows at the 83240 ny low and the 83719 swing low, with price back mid-Asian range and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 83,718.80, 83,607.93, 83,240.33
Resistance: 84,360.10, 84,494.95, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83719 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 83608 asian low, then the 83240 ny low
Close above the 84495 lower high, then the 84360 asian high holding as support, opens a retest of the 84749 session high
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Two-way, recovering from London flush, stalling below highs · RSI 45 · price 84,127.35
Contracting range: lower highs under 84,750, higher lows above 83,720.
London open pushed above the Asian range to 84,500, then flushed to 82,802 before NY rebuilt the range. Two NY-hours tests of the 84,750 session high were both rejected, with a swing down to the NY low at 83,240 in between. Price now coils between a lower high at 84,495 and a higher low at 83,720 as hot US claims keep USD firm, and RSI(14) sits mid-40s.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,720 higher low breaks the rising-low sequence and exposes the 83,240 NY low
M15 close above the 84,495 lower high reopens a test of the 84,750 session high
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Durable Goods/UoM inflation expectations on Friday could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Two-way, compressing after volatile NY session · RSI 45 · price 84,188.29
Lower highs from 84749 against higher lows from 83240; contracting mid-range.
After the London slide to 82802, NY whipsawed on firm US data and was rejected twice near the session high at 84734/84749. Since then there has been a lower high at 84495 against higher lows from the 83240 NY low to the 83719 swing low. Late NY price sits mid-range around 84190 with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 83,719.00, 83,240.00
Resistance: 84,495.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84495 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence and puts the 84749 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 83719 swing low breaks the rising-lows chain and exposes the 83240 NY low
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Recovering from London low, range compressing · RSI 49 · price 84,325.14
Rising lows at 83240/83719 under a lower high at 84495.
The London-open selloff printed the window low at 82802. The NY session then rebounded above the Asian range, with the move running into firm US claims and home-sales prints, and met rejection twice at the 84735–84749 session high. Late NY now shows rising lows at the 83240 ny low and the 83719 swing low against a lower high at 84495, compressing price around 84300 with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 84,000.00, 83,719.00, 83,240.00
Resistance: 84,495.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84495 lower high reopens the 84749 session high
Loss of the rising lows line and the 84000 round number exposes the 83719 swing low
Break below the 83240 ny low undoes the NY rebound structure
Friday's Williams speech (09:15 UTC), durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
BTC reclaimed the 82,802 London-session flush and set twin highs at 84,735–84,750 during NY hours, where supply capped twice even as firm US claims and home-sales beats kept USD bid. Late in the NY session, the 18:00 UTC swing low at 83,719 held near the 50% retrace of the recovery fib. Price is back above the asian high at 84,360 and pressing the london high at 84,501, with RSI(14) near 61.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 84,501 opens a retest of the twin highs at 84,750
Loss of the asian high at 84,360 returns price to mid-range; a break of the 83,719 swing low breaks the rising lows
Failure to hold the ny low at 83,240 negates the NY recovery structure
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Friday's durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
19:18 UTC
Recovered from London flush, now sideways and contracting · RSI 56 · price 84,371.08
Higher low 83,719 under lower high 84,454, inside the 83,240–84,749 NY range.
Late NY session. The London sell-off to 82,802 has been fully retraced back above the 83,608–84,360 Asian range, but rejection twice at 84,734–84,749 capped the session high, and price is now coiling between a higher low at 83,719 and a lower high at 84,454 with RSI(14) at 56. Hot US PMI and claims beats this week kept a firm USD backdrop, yet the recovery leg has held above the midpoint of the London-NY move.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,454 lower high and the 84,501 london high reopens the 84,749 session high
Loss of the 84,065 minor low, then the 83,719 higher low, breaks the rising-lows structure and exposes the 83,240 ny low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri is the next scheduled macro input; thin post-NY liquidity until then keeps ATR near $300 per bar
Wide NY range 83240–84749, higher low at 84063 under a 84376 cap.
NY session whipsawed between the 83240 NY low and the 84749 session high. Price was rejected twice near 84740 as the claims beat kept USD bid, then slid to the 83719 swing low. Late NY is rebuilding from a higher low at 84063, capped at the 84376 micro high near the 61.8% of that drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 inside the 83608–84360 Asian range.
Support: 84,063.42, 83,718.80, 83,240.33
Resistance: 84,376.08, 84,500.94, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84376 micro high reopens the 84501 london high and the 84749 session high
Failure to hold the 84063 higher low exposes the 83719 swing low, and below it the 83240 ny low
Loss of the rising-lows line from 83240 to 83719 would break the recovery structure
Fri UoM 1y inflation expectations (f/c 4.6%) and durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Williams speaks 09:15 UTC
Higher lows off 83,240 against lower highs from 84,749.
London open sold off from the 84,500 london high to 82,802 before NY reclaimed the Asian range, even with the hot US data backdrop. Price twice rejected near the 84,749 session high. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between a rising support line off the 83,240 ny low and lower highs from 84,749, capped by the minor high at 84,367. The 18:00 UTC swing low at 83,719 held near the 50% retrace of the London-NY swing.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,719 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 83,240 ny low
Loss of the 84,000 round number puts pressure on the rising support line
Close above the minor high at 84,367 and the lower-highs line reopens the 84,500 london high and the 84,749 session high
Friday US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Two-way range, higher lows since the London low · RSI 56 · price 84,246.22
NY range 83240–84750 with rising lows under a flat 84750 cap.
The London-open false break of the Asian high near 84500 unwound to an 82802 day low. The NY session, with firm US claims keeping the USD tone hawkish, has since built a 83240–84750 range. Supply capped twice at the 84750 session high, while higher lows at the 83240 ny low and the 83720 swing low (near 50% of the recovery fib) hold the rising trendline; RSI(14) is mid-50s after London close.
Support: 83,240.33, 82,801.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84750 session high breaks the NY range top
Loss of the 83720 swing low and the higher-lows trendline opens the 83240 ny low, then the 82800 day low
Rejection at the 84500 london high keeps price mid-range
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC, durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could reset this read
18:17 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since NY open · RSI 56 · price 84,149.33
London open pushed above the Asian range to a London high at 84501, then failed and flushed to an 82802 session low. NY, with hot US claims keeping the hawkish-Fed backdrop in play, recovered the leg but stalled twice at 84734–84749, a double top. Late NY, the pullback held an 83719 swing low near the 50% fib, keeping the higher-low trendline intact; RSI(14) is mid-range around 56 and ATR(14) is about 355 points.
Support: 83,719.00, 83,240.00, 82,802.00
Resistance: 84,501.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 84749 double top invalidates the range cap
A close back above the 84501 London high reopens a test of the equal highs
Loss of the 83719 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Failure at the 83240 higher low exposes the 82802 session low
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC), then durables and UoM inflation expectations (12:30–14:00 UTC), are the next macro inputs
Late NY: double rejection near 84750, back inside Asian range.
London swept the Asian low at 83608 down to 82802 as yields and USD firmed on hot US data. NY recovered but was rejected twice near the 84748 session high, and a chain of lower highs has pulled price back below the ema20 and the 38.2% fib, close to the micro low at 83856.
Support: 83,855.65, 83,607.93, 83,240.33
Resistance: 84,100.00, 84,398.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below 83856 micro low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 50% fib near 83775 and the asian low at 83608
Reclaim of the ema20 near 84100 and a close above the 84398 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the 83240 ny swing low reopens the London low area
Friday's durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) are the next macro catalysts for rates-sensitive BTC
17:47 UTC
Two-way, fading from the NY high · RSI 51 · price 84,005.49
Lower highs off 84748, back inside the Asian range.
The London open spike to 84501 reversed into an 82802 low. NY hours recovered the move despite firm US claims data, but two pushes into the 84748 session high were rejected. Price has since printed lower highs back inside the Asian range (83641–84346) and sits on the 50% of the NY swing fib from the 83240 NY low, near 83995.
Support: 83,640.89, 83,240.33
Resistance: 84,346.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83963 late NY low and the 50% fib extends the lower-high sequence toward the 83641 Asian low
Failure to hold the Asian low exposes the 83240 NY low, the base of the afternoon swing
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 84346 Asian high reopens the 84748 session high
Fri Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
The London open reversal from 84,500 flushed to 82,802 by 09:30 UTC. BTC recovered through NY despite firm US claims and new-home-sales beats, but met rejection twice at the 84,730–84,750 day high. Late NY, price sits back inside the Asian range just under the 84,360 Asian high, with RSI(14) at 52. The higher-low chain from the 83,240 NY low through 83,890 to the 84,038 swing low (near the 38.2% retrace) is intact.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,038 swing low shifts focus to the 83,890 higher low
Loss of 83,890 breaks the higher-low sequence and opens the 50% retrace near 83,775
Acceptance above the 84,360 Asian high puts the 84,750 day high back in play; a close above it ends the double-rejection read
Fri durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) sit beyond this window but could reset the range
17:17 UTC
Range after recovery, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 84,265.20
Higher lows since 14:45 UTC, twin rejection at session high.
Late in the NY session, BTC is compressing between 84200 and 84550, just below the 84360 Asian high. It has been rejected twice at the 84733–84748 session high, a potential double top with the 83890 swing low as neckline. Firm US claims and home sales kept USD bid, but the rebound from the 82802 London low still shows a higher-low chain, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 84,200.27, 83,240.33
Resistance: 84,360.10
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84200 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 83890 swing low
Loss of 83890 confirms the double top; the 83240 NY low is the next reference
M15 close above the 84748 session high negates the double top read
Holding above the 84360 Asian high keeps the recovery structure intact
After London close, trading is thinner; the next macro input is Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri, ahead of durables and UoM inflation expectations
NY session fully reversed London's flush to 82802 and pushed back above the Asian range, shrugging off hot US claims and home-sales prints that the digest frames as a macro headwind. Twin rejections at the 84749 session high and closes back below the 84527 prior high leave price rotating around the 84200 pivot, with RSI(14) neutral at 56 and ATR near $360.
Support: 84,200.00, 83,240.33
Resistance: 84,526.91, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84527 prior high reopens a test of the 84749 session high, rejected twice so far
Failure to hold the 84200 pivot exposes the 50% retrace of the NY upswing near 83995
Break of the 83890 higher low undoes the higher lows sequence and puts the 83240 ny low back in view
Fri 12:30 UTC durables and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations, plus Williams at 09:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, capped at day high · RSI 59 · price 84,376.08
NY higher lows off the London low, double test of 84730–84750 rejected.
London broke below the Asian range and sold from the 84500 london high to an 82802 day low. NY reversed the whole leg despite the firm claims beat, printing higher lows at 83240 (ny low) and 83890. A marginal poke to 84749 above the 84734 NY high was rejected, and price is now back below the london high, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 455 dollars.
Support: 83,240.33, 82,801.81
Resistance: 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84749 day high invalidates the double-rejection read
Failure to hold the 83890 higher low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 50% fib near 83775, then the 83240 ny low
Acceptance back above the 84500 london high re-opens a test of the day high
Loss of the 82802 day low would unwind the NY recovery entirely
Fri Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) are the next macro catalyst for rates-sensitive BTC
Higher lows under a lower high; London low fully reclaimed.
London swept the Asian range low near 83608 and ran to a london low of 82802 against the firm-USD backdrop. NY reclaimed the whole move despite the claims beat, printing a session high at 84734. Since then a lower high at 84679 and higher lows at 83240 (ny low) and 83890 have compressed price just under the 84527 prior high, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR(14) around 42,000 pips.
Support: 83,240.33, 82,801.81
Resistance: 84,526.91, 84,678.75, 84,733.69
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84734 session high breaks the lower highs and ends the compression read
Repeated rejection at the 84527 prior high keeps price capped inside the NY swing
Loss of the 83890 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 50% of the london-ny swing near 83768, then the 83240 ny low
A break below 83240 puts the 82802 london low back in play
No US data in the next 8h. Friday's Williams (09:15 UTC), durables and UoM inflation expectations are the next macro inputs
16:17 UTC
V-shaped recovery, mid-range after NY rejection · RSI 58 · price 84,309.15
London low at 82,802, NY false break above Asian high, higher low at 83,240.
London open broke the Asian range low and ran to an 82,802 session low as hot US data kept USD firm. NY then swept the 84,501 Asian high to 84,734 before a sharp rejection to 83,240, a higher low near the 78.6% fib of the London-NY leg. Price is back at 84,309, RSI(14) 58, capped below the Asian high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,501 asian high reopens the 84,734 ny high
Failure to hold the 83,890 swing low exposes the 83,240 ny low and the rising lows line
A break below the 82,802 session low would undo the London-NY leg recovery
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC), durable goods and UoM inflation expectations are the next macro inputs that could shift this read
16:03 UTC
Two-way intraday, recovering after London slide · RSI 58 · price 84,121.36
Higher low at 83,240 after failed spike; mid-range below 84,314.
NY hours reversed the London-session slide to the 82,802 london low, but the spike above the 84,501 london high to 84,734 was rejected and retraced to an 83,240 ny low. Price has since set a higher low and trades near 84,120, just under the 84,314 rebound high and above the 83,932 minor low. That leaves an intraday uptrend from the low, although the hot US data run (PMIs, sub-200K claims) keeps a USD headwind in the background.
What it said to watch
A close above the 84,314 rebound high reopens the 84,501 london high and the 84,734 spike high
Loss of the 83,932 minor low exposes the 83,240 ny low; a break there cuts the rising lows line from the london low
Fed's Williams and Friday's durables and UoM inflation expectations are the next macro inputs; a hot 1y print above 4.6% would extend the USD-led headwind
Higher lows off 82,802, capped under the 84,346 asian high.
London's 84,501 high gave way to a flush to 82,802 on the hot-US-data backdrop. The NY rebound has built a higher-low chain. A 14:15 UTC false break of the London high, which spiked to the 84,734 session high, drew a sharp rejection to 83,240, but that higher low held. Price is now just under the 84,346 Asian high, holding above the 38.2% fib at 83,996, with RSI(14) near 59.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,346 asian high reopens the 84,501 london high and 84,734 session high
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 83,996 and the 83,720 swing low weakens the recovery read
Break of rising support and the 83,240 higher low ends the NY higher-low chain
Friday's durables and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Two-way, rebounding off NY low · RSI 57 · price 83,967.53
Wide NY range 83,240–84,734 after false break of prior highs; back inside Asian range.
London broke the Asian low with a slide to the 82,802 London low as hot US data weighed. In NY, price spiked to the 84,734 spike high, then the false break reversed down to the 83,240 NY low. Price has since reclaimed the Asian low and sits just under the 84,000 round number, near the 38.2% retracement of the London low to spike high leg, with RSI(14) around 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,360 asian high puts the 84,734 spike high back in play
Failure to hold the 83,610 asian low reopens the 83,240 ny low and the 78.6% retracement
Fri 12:30 UTC durables and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations are the next macro catalyst for this read
15:18 UTC
Two-way range, whipsaw after NY rejection · RSI 51 · price 83,797.72
Wide 82,802–84,734 day range; price mid-range, back inside the Asian range.
London's push above the asian high to the london high at 84,501 failed and ran to the day low at 82,802. NY's rebound spiked to the ny high at 84,734 but was rejected within two bars, with the hot US data tone as the backdrop. Price now sits near the 50% of the NY rally fib at ~83,800, back inside the Asian range and hugging EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR near $343.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 83,608 exposes the ny low at 83,240
A close back below the ny low at 83,240 reopens the day low at 82,802
Acceptance above the asian high at 84,360 brings the london high 84,501 and ny high 84,734 back into play
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri is the next macro input
Failed break above 84,500, back inside midday range.
The NY session spiked to an 84,734 NY high, a false break above the 84,500 London high, then shed roughly 1,500 in two bars back into the 83,240–83,520 midday range. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50, near the 78.6% fib of the 82,802–84,734 rally, with RSI(14) near 40. The firm USD tape after today's claims beat is the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,240 range low reopens the 82,802 session low from the London selloff
Reclaim of the 83,520 range top would put the 84,500 London high back in view
Repeat rejection near the 84,734 NY high would confirm the failed break as a session top
Fri UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Durables (12:30 UTC), plus Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Recovery from London low, stalling after rejection · RSI 59 · price 84,165.31
NY rally swept asian high and prior high, then rejected.
London broke below the Asian range to a london low at 82802. NY then recovered the full move and swept the asian high and prior high to a session high at 84734, but the spike was rejected within one bar, leaving an early false break against a USD firmed by today's claims and new home sales beats. Price is holding about 29% into the London low to NY high leg, above the 84000 round number and fib 38.2%, with RSI(14) cooling from the spike.
Support: 84,000.00, 83,608.00, 82,802.00
Resistance: 84,501.00, 84,734.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84501 asian high and 84734 session high invalidates the rejection read
Failure to hold the 84000 round number (fib 38.2%) opens a deeper retrace toward the 83608 asian low
Loss of 83608 puts the 82802 london low back in focus
Trump-Xi summit headlines today and any further USD/yield extension could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, extended · RSI 71 · price 84,552.88
Higher lows since 82802; Asian high and london high broken during NY.
London flushed through the Asian range low to 82802, then NY reversed it in a higher-low chain. Price broke the asian high and the 84500 london high to a 84734 session high despite beats on claims and new home sales. RSI(14) is near 71 after the 14:15 UTC spike and the current bar is pulling back toward the breakout area.
Support: 84,500.00, 84,360.00, 83,996.00
Resistance: 84,733.69, 85,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84500 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 84360 asian high reopens the fib 38.2 near 83996
Acceptance above the 84734 session high puts the 85000 psych level in play
Break of the rising higher-low trendline from 82802 ends the NY uptrend read
Trump-Xi summit headlines and US yields holding above 5% remain intraday risk for BTC
14:17 UTC
Recovering after London selloff, momentum cooling · RSI 72 · price 84,021.47
V-shaped rebound back inside Asian range; rising lows from 82802, capped at 84211 session high.
London's false break of the asian high at 84360 topped at the 84501 london high, then flushed to 82802. NY retraced about 72% of that drop despite the firm US claims print and Paulson's remarks, and has stalled just under the 84211 session high. RSI(14) is near 72 and rising lows from 82802 remain intact.
Support: 83,852.00, 83,702.00, 83,608.00
Resistance: 84,211.00, 84,360.00, 84,501.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84211 session high reopens the 84360 asian high and the 84501 london high
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 83852, then the ny swing low at 83702, would stall the rising lows sequence
A break back below the asian low at 83608 would put the London lows back in focus
Hawkish Fedspeak or firmer USD and yields into Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) could reverse the NY rebound
14:03 UTC
V-shaped recovery, momentum firm into NY · RSI 58 · price 84,111.37
London selloff reversed; back inside Asian range, higher lows since 09:30 UTC.
London open rejected the 84501 london high and broke the 83608 asian low, running to an 82802 session low before basing through the morning. The false break reversed in the first hour of NY around Paulson's 13:00 UTC remarks, and price is now retesting the 84185 ny high at the 78.6% of the London drop fib despite the hawkish US data backdrop.
Support: 83,608.00, 83,189.00, 82,802.00
Resistance: 84,185.00, 84,360.00, 84,501.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84185 ny high puts the 84360 asian high and 84501 london high back in play
Loss of the 83608 asian low would negate the false break read
Break of the rising lows trendline toward the 83189 swing low would signal the NY rebound fading
New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and any Trump-Xi headlines could move USD and yields, and with them this read
13:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovering off the lows · RSI 56 · price 83,792.72
Higher lows from 82802, 84185 spike rejected, back inside Asian range.
London open swept the Asian high to the 84501 london high, then flushed through the Asian low to an 82802 day low as the USD bid on hot US data weighed on risk. Higher lows since then carried price back to the 61.8% retrace near 83850, but the NY-open spike to 84185 drew a sharp rejection wick and price is holding just above the reclaimed asian low.
Support: 83,608.00, 83,189.00, 82,802.00
Resistance: 84,185.00, 84,501.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84185 ny rejection high opens the 84501 london high
Failure to hold the 83608 asian low shifts focus to the 83189 swing low and the rising trendline
A break of the 82802 day low resumes the London-session downtrend
New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and unscheduled Trump-Xi headlines could shift this read via USD and yields
Higher lows off the 82,802 session low; retracing the London selloff back into the Asian range.
London opened with a false break above the Asian high to the 84,501 london high, then reversed through the Asian low to an 82,802 session low as hot US PMIs and claims kept USD firm. The recovery since has printed a higher low at 83,189 and is back above the 83,608 asian low. The 83,814 bounce high was rejected around Paulson's 13:00 UTC remarks, just under the 61.8% fib near 83,852.
What it said to watch
Close above the 83,814 bounce high and 61.8% fib (83,852) opens the path to the 84,338 asian high, then the 84,501 london high
Failure to hold the 83,608 asian low puts the rising trendline and 83,189 higher low back in play
Break below the 82,802 session low resumes the London downtrend
Paulson Fedspeak and 14:00 UTC New Home Sales could materially shift this read via yields and USD
13:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovery leg in progress · RSI 56 · price 83,601.93
Higher lows off 82,802 session low; retesting broken Asian low from below.
London opened with a false break of the Asian high to 84,501, then a 1,700-point London sell-off broke the Asian low and printed the session low at 82,802, in step with the firm-USD, hot-data backdrop. Price has since built higher lows, holding 83,189 around the 12:30 UTC claims print, and is now retesting the broken 83,608 Asian low near the 50% retrace, with RSI(14) at 56 and the EMA50 at 83,690 just overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,690 ema50 and the 50% retrace puts price back inside the Asian range, with the Asian high at 84,360 the range top
Rejection at the 83,608 Asian low keeps the range break intact; loss of the 83,523 prior high weakens the higher-low chain
Break of the 83,189 higher low exposes the 82,802 session low
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC, under way) and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift this read via yields and USD
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising off the day low · RSI 48 · price 83,471.08
Lower highs from 85826; higher lows since the 82802 London low, capped near 83523.
Yesterday's NY slide from 85826 followed the hot US PMI beats. London opened with a false break above the Asian range to the 84501 london high, then swept below the 83608 asian low to an 82802 day low. Since then price has built higher lows through the claims beat and now sits at the 38.2% retrace near 83450, just under the 83523 rebound high, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 83,189.39, 82,801.81
Resistance: 83,523.02, 83,607.93, 84,500.94
What it said to watch
Fed's Paulson at 13:00 UTC is live now and could materially shift this read
A close above the 83523 rebound high and back inside the asian low at 83608 opens the 50% retrace near 83650
A break of the 83189 swing low ends the higher-lows sequence and puts the 82802 day low back in focus
New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC during NY hours is a secondary USD input
Post-selloff consolidation 83190–83520 below the Asian range.
The London-open push to 84501 reversed hard, breaking the asian low at 83608 and printing a london low at 82802 as the hawkish USD backdrop from yesterday's PMI beats persisted. The rebound has capped near the 38.2% retrace around 83450, and price is now compressing between the 83190 range base and 83520 range top, just below the ema20. The 12:30 UTC claims bar added little impulse.
Support: 82,801.81
Resistance: 83,607.93
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83520 range top reclaims the ema20 and opens a retest of the asian low at 83608
Failure to hold the 83190 range base exposes the london low at 82802
Fed's Hammack (12:50 UTC) and Paulson (13:00 UTC) remarks, plus the NY equity open, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the London low, capped near the 38.2% retrace.
Early London pushed above the Asian high at 84,346, failed at 84,501 and broke the Asian range lower to a London low of 82,802 at 09:30 UTC. That extends the post-PMI slide as USD stays firm. Since then, higher lows at 82,982 and 83,237 have lifted price back to the 38.2% retrace, but the 83,523 swing high is capping and price sits just under EMA20 as the 12:30 UTC claims bar opens.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,523 swing high brings the 83,608 asian low (former range floor) back into play
Failure to hold the 83,237 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 82,802 london low
Only a reclaim of the 84,346 asian high would negate the London false break
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), Hammack at 12:50 and Paulson at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke below Asian range; lower high at 84,501, low 82,802, now basing 83,237–83,450.
London open reversed the late-Asia push to 84,501 and broke the Asian low at 83,608, printing a London low at 82,802 as firm US yields and the PMI-driven hawkish tilt weighed on BTC. Since then price has held a tight 83,237–83,450 consolidation with rising lows, capped at the 38.2% fib of the London drop and sitting just under EMA20.
What it said to watch
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson remarks at 12:50/13:00 UTC are the likely catalyst for a break of the 83,237–83,450 range
M15 close above the 83,450 range top (38.2% fib) opens a retest of the Asian low at 83,608, then 84,000 psych
Loss of the 83,237 range low and the rising lows trendline exposes the London low at 82,802
Lower highs off London high; tight consolidation below 38.2% fib.
London faded a false break of the Asian high, reversing from the London high at 84,501 through the Asian low at 83,608 and yesterday's 83,367 low to a session low at 82,802 as US yields held above 5%. The rebound stalled at the 38.2% fib near 83,450, and price is compressing around 83,300 into US claims with RSI(14) at 41.
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), followed by Hammack at 12:50 and Paulson at 13:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 83,450 breaks the selloff line and opens a retest of the Asian low at 83,608
Loss of the micro low at 83,237, then the higher low at 82,983, exposes the session low at 82,802
False break above Asian range, range break lower, lower high at 83,450.
London opened with a false break above the Asian range to a session high at 84,501. Price then reversed through the Asian low at 83,608 to a session low of 82,802, with the hawkish PMI and yields backdrop weighing. The rebound stalled at the 83,450 bounce high, the 38.2% fib of the drop, and price is drifting back toward the 83,250 pullback low below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack (12:50) and Paulson (13:00), could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 83,450 bounce high breaks the descending resistance and opens the 83,608 asian low and the 50% fib near 83,651
Failure to hold the 83,250 pullback low exposes the 82,924 higher low and the 82,802 session low
Recovery back above the 84,501 session high would negate the false break read
London false break above Asian high, then range break lower; lower high capped at 38.2% fib.
London open pushed above the Asian high to 84,501 and reversed. The drop cut through the Asian low and yesterday's post-PMI prior low to a 82,802 session low, with hot US PMIs and 5%+ yields as the backdrop. The rebound off a higher low near 82,983 stalled at 83,450, the 38.2% fib, and price now sits back on the 83,367 prior low with RSI(14) near 44, below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Close back above 83,450 (38.2% fib) opens the 83,608 Asian low, then the 84,000 round number
Failure to hold the 83,367 prior low exposes the 82,983 higher low and the 82,802 session low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) plus Hammack/Paulson remarks early in the NY session could materially shift this read
11:18 UTC
Downtrend, rebound in progress · RSI 46 · price 83,400.15
Lower high at 84,501 then lower low at 82,802; higher lows forming on the bounce.
London opened with a false break above the Asian range to an 84,501 session high, then reversed through the 83,608 Asian low and yesterday's 83,367 prior low to an 82,802 session low. The hawkish USD backdrop after yesterday's PMI beats keeps a lid on risk. Mid-London, price is back at the prior low on a higher-low sequence, testing the 38.2% fib near 83,450 with RSI(14) recovering to 46.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83,367 prior low and the 83,190 higher low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 82,802 session low
Acceptance above the 83,608 Asian low (50% fib) turns the rebound into a broader retracement toward the 84,000 round number
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
London false break of Asian high, then range break lower; base forming above 82800.
London pushed above the Asian high to 84501, failed there, then broke the Asian range and yesterday's post-PMI prior low. The drop reached a session low of 82802, extending the slide that began on the hot US PMIs. Price has since built a base near 82982 with rising lows and is retesting the 83367 prior low from above, about 38% into the London drop and 90 minutes ahead of US claims.
Support: 83,367.00, 82,982.00, 82,802.00
Resistance: 83,608.00, 83,881.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83367 prior low shifts focus to the 82982 base and 82802 session low
Reclaim of the 83608 asian low (near the 50% of the London drop) puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to clear the 83881 lower high keeps the post-London sequence of lower highs intact
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson at 12:50/13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of the rising lows off 82802 would undo the current base
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London sell-off · RSI 37 · price 83,203.37
Asian range broken lower; tight base 82920–83255 above session low.
London open swept the Asian range high to 84501, then reversed hard. It broke the asian low at 83608 and the prior low at 83367 (Wednesday's post-PMI low) before printing a session low at 82802, with firm USD and yields after the hot PMIs as the backdrop. Price is now compressing in a 82920–83255 box below EMA20, and RSI(14) is recovering to ~37 from near 30.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,801.81
Resistance: 83,255.31, 83,367.19, 83,607.93
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83255 range top opens a retest of the 83367 prior low and the 38.2% london drop fib near 83450
50% london drop fib near 83650 sits just above the 83608 asian low, a confluence zone to watch for rejection
Loss of the 83000 round number and the 82802 session low extends the London sell-off structure
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson at 12:50–13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London leg lower · RSI 32 · price 83,083.50
Lower highs from 84,501; tight base 82,800–83,220 below broken Asian low.
London open was rejected at the Asian high of 84,501 and broke below the Asian low at 83,608 and yesterday's post-PMI prior low at 83,367. It printed a session low at 82,802, with hot US PMIs and a firm USD as the backdrop. Price is now basing in an 82,800–83,220 box with a higher low at 82,924, and RSI(14) near 32 has lifted from oversold.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 83,222 range top puts the 83,367 prior low and the London drop fib 38.2% near 83,450 in play
Failure to hold the 82,924 higher low exposes the 82,802 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 83,608 Asian low would negate the London range break
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack 12:50 and Paulson 13:00, could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 31 · price 83,123.46
False break above Asian high, then range break lower; lower highs since 08:00 UTC.
London's poke above the Asian range to a 84501 session high failed. The London leg then broke the 83608 Asian low and yesterday's post-PMI prior low at 83367, reaching an 82802 session low and extending the move that followed the hot US PMI beats. Price is basing just above the 83000 round number mid-London, with RSI(14) near 31 and every bounce so far capped by lower highs.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,801.81
Resistance: 83,367.19, 83,607.93, 84,500.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83367 prior low would weaken the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 83000 round number exposes a retest of the 82802 session low
A reclaim of the 83608 Asian low, near 50% of the London leg, negates the range break
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
10:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low in London · RSI 33 · price 83,107.48
False break above Asian high, then range break lower through Asian low.
London pushed above the Asian range to 84501, then reversed sharply. The drop broke the asian low at 83608 and the prior low at 83367, left from yesterday's post-PMI selloff, before printing a session low at 82802. That extends the USD-led pressure from the hot US PMIs. Price is now stalling just above the 83000 round number with RSI(14) near 33, and the 38.2% retrace of the London drop sits near 83451.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,801.81
Resistance: 83,367.19, 83,607.93
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the prior low at 83367 reclaims broken structure and opens the London drop 50% near 83651
Failure to hold the 83000 round number and the 82802 session low extends the lower-low chain
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Asian low at 83608 is the upper boundary for any retrace; acceptance back above it negates the range break
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low in London · RSI 26 · price 83,079.51
Overnight range broken lower, lower highs since the 84,501 top.
London reversed hard from the 84,501 session high. It broke the overnight 83,580–84,530 range, cut through yesterday's post-PMI prior low at 83,367 and printed a session low at 82,802, with RSI(14) near 26. Price is holding just above the 83,000 round number, with hot US PMIs and a firm USD still the backdrop.
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 83,367 prior low, near the 38.2% of the London drop fib, would flag the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 82,802 session low extends the lower-low chain below the 83,000 round number
The Asian low at 83,608 caps any rebound; a return inside it puts the overnight range back in play
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
London high rejected; Asian range and prior low broken, new session low.
The London open rally was rejected at the London high of 84501, just under the 84527 overnight peak. Price then reversed through the Asian low at 83608 and yesterday's post-PMI prior low at 83367, printing a new session low at 83125. The move fits the firm-USD tone after the hot PMI beats; RSI(14) is near 27 and ATR(14) about 264 points.
Support: 83,125.46, 83,000.00
Resistance: 83,367.19, 83,607.93, 84,500.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83367 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 83608 Asian low neutralises the London reversal
Loss of the 83000 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the session low
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, then range break below Asian low.
London opened with a false break of the Asian range high, tagging the 84501 session high before a ~1,320-point reversal. The drop cut through the Asian low at 83608 and yesterday's post-PMI low near 83367, printing an 83178 session low. Mid-London, price is pinned at the pmi low with RSI(14) near 34, consistent with the macro headwind from yesterday's hot US PMIs.
Support: 83,367.00, 83,178.40
Resistance: 83,607.93, 84,500.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83608 asian low would undercut the range-break read
Failure to hold the 83178 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Rebounds capped below the 38.2% fib of the London drop (~83684) keep the reversal structure intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson at 12:50–13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:05 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off session low · RSI 39 · price 83,616.92
False break above Asian range reversed into range break lower; price back at Asian low.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 84,360 to a session high of 84,501, then reversed hard through the Asian low and yesterday's post-PMI prior low at 83,367, sweeping to a 83,178 session low. Price is back at the Asian low near 83,608 with RSI(14) near 39, and the 61.8% retrace of the London drop sits at the 84,000 round number. The hot US PMIs remain the macro headwind.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84,000 round number (61.8% of the London drop) weakens the downtrend read
Failure to hold the asian low at 83,608 puts the prior low at 83,367 and the 83,178 session low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Range after post-PMI selloff, pressing lower · RSI 38 · price 83,623.91
London false break above Asian high, now below Asian low.
BTC has ranged 83,540–84,500 since yesterday's hot US PMI beat drove the flush to the 83,367 swing low. London briefly lifted price above the Asian high to an 84,501 session high, then a single-bar rejection cut about 600 points. Price is now trading below the 83,608 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 83,542.00, 83,367.19
Resistance: 83,607.93, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83608 asian low negates the downside break
Failure to hold the 83542 session low exposes the 83367 swing low
Reclaim of the 84000 round number, near 50% of the london drop, returns price to mid-range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
London false break of Asian high reversed; lower high 84501 vs 84527, testing Asian low.
London open broke the 84360 Asian high and stalled at the 84501 London high, just under the overnight 84527 top. A $670 rejection bar then returned price to the Asian low near 83608. Price sits below the 61.8% fib of the rebound from the 83367 PMI low (set after the US PMI beat), with RSI(14) near 43 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 83,608.00, 83,367.00
Resistance: 83,810.00, 84,360.00, 84,501.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83608 asian low opens a retest of the 83367 pmi low
Reclaim and hold above 83810 (fib 61.8) weakens the rejection read
Close back above the 84360 asian high puts the 84501 london high back in play
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson at 12:50/13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:18 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at London high · RSI 62 · price 84,275.19
Higher lows off 83608 Asian low; London break of the Asian high rejected at 84501.
London cleared the 84360 Asian high and ran to an 84501 session high, stalling just under the 84527 prior high from late NY. The 08:00 UTC upper wick has pulled price back below the Asian high, with the 84240 London base and the higher-low sequence off the 83608 Asian low intact. The hot US PMI prints drove yesterday's slide to 83367.
Support: 84,240.00, 83,808.00, 83,608.00
Resistance: 84,360.00, 84,501.00, 84,527.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84360 asian high reopens the 84501 session high and 84527 prior high
Loss of the 84240 london base exposes the 83808 higher low and the rising trendline
A break below the 83608 asian low negates the higher-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
08:04 UTC
Short-term recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 61 · price 84,393.06
London open broke above Asian range high; price holding between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the post-PMI drop.
BTC sold off to 83,367 in yesterday's NY session after the blowout US PMI beat. Asia then printed higher lows along a rising trendline, and London open cleared the Asian high at 84,360. Price stalled at the 84,479 London high, between the 38.2% fib (84,307) and 50% fib (84,597) of the post-PMI drop, with RSI(14) near 61.
What it said to watch
Holding the 84,360 asian high on any retest keeps the range break intact; a return inside the Asian range reads as a false break
A close above the 84,527 overnight hi opens the 50% fib at 84,597
A break of the rising trendline and the 83,808 higher low ends the Asia higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the rate read behind the PMI drop
07:47 UTC
Basing after post-PMI drop, higher lows since Asia · RSI 64 · price 84,292.17
Asian range high broken at London open, price back below it.
Hot US flash PMIs knocked BTC from 85,800 to 83,367 in NY hours. Since then it has built higher lows through the Asia session off the asian low at 83,608. The London open pushed price through the asian high at 84,360 to a london high of 84,449, but it has since slipped back under the level, with RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
Holding back below the asian high at 84,360 marks the London push as a false break back into the Asian range
A M15 close above the london high at 84,449 puts the overnight hi at 84,527 in play
A break of the higher low at 83,808 and the rising trendline reopens the asian low at 83,608
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the rate read after the PMI beat
83,608–84,527 range since the PMI drop; Asia higher lows, London open pressing the Asian high.
The US PMI beat knocked BTC from 85,826 to a 83,367 PMI low, and it has held a range since. London open lifted price off an 83,808 higher low into the Asian high at 84,360, where it sits at the 38.2% fib of that drop with RSI(14) near 60. The late NY high at 84,527 caps the range.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asian high at 84,360 opens the late NY high at 84,527 and the fib 50% near 84,597
Loss of the 83,808 higher low breaks the Asia higher-lows line and returns focus to the Asian low at 83,608, then the PMI low at 83,367
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the read via yields and USD
Lower highs from 84,527 and higher lows from 83,608, a squeeze inside the Asian range.
BTC is still digesting the hot US PMI flush to the 83,367 pmi low. The late-NY rebound stalled at 84,527, just shy of 50% of the PMI drop. Early London is trading inside the Asian range (83,608–84,360), squeezed between descending resistance and rising support, with RSI(14) near 45 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 83,808 london low breaks rising support and exposes the 83,608 asian low
An M15 close above the 84,126 lower high breaks descending resistance, with the 84,360 asian high and 84,527 prior high next
Failure to hold the 83,608 asian low reopens the 83,367 pmi low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could resolve the squeeze
07:04 UTC
Sideways after PMI-driven drop · RSI 50 · price 83,942.56
Post-drop range; Asia lower highs over a double base.
BTC has held an 83,370–84,530 range since the hot US PMI beat knocked it from 85,800 during NY hours. Asia carved lower highs under the 84,360 Asian high while a double base held near 83,640. London open is trading mid-range near 83,940, just under EMA20 and around the 23.6% retrace of the PMI drop, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,608 asian low breaks the double base and exposes the 83,367 pmi low
Clearing the lower highs trendline and the 84,126 lower high reopens the 84,360 asian high, then the 84,527 ny high
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the rate read behind the PMI drop
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 83,370–84,530 post-PMI range.
BTC has held an 83,370–84,530 range since the hot US PMI prints knocked it off 85,800 yesterday, with the pmi low still intact. The Asian session is compressing, with lower highs from 84,346 and higher lows off the 83,608 Asian low. Price sits mid-range near 84,040 into London open, RSI(14) neutral near 53.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,278 lower high and 84,360 Asian high breaks the compression and exposes the 84,527 swing high
Failure to hold the 83,773 higher low reopens the 83,608 Asian low and the 83,367 pmi low
Williams at 08:10 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the rate read weighing on BTC
Lower highs and higher lows compressing inside the Asian range.
The hot US flash PMI beat triggered a NY-session slide from 85,800 to the 83,367 pmi low. Since then, price has held a 83,370–84,530 box, printing lower highs from the 84,527 prior high and higher lows off the 83,608 asian low. Late Asia is coiling at 84,065 between the 84,278 swing high and 83,773 swing low, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,278 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 84,360 asian high and 84,527 prior high in view
Failure to hold the 83,773 swing low exposes the 83,608 asian low, then the 83,367 pmi low
London open is a common trigger for resolving the Asian range
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Asian range 83,608–84,346 with lower highs and higher lows.
Late Asia session, ahead of London open. BTC is compressing inside an 83,608–84,346 Asian range after the hot US flash PMIs drove a slide to the 83,367 PMI low. Asian highs are stepping lower (84,346, then 84,278), dips have held a higher low at 83,827, and price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 46.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,346 Asian high clears the lower-high trendline and the 38.2% of the PMI drop fib (~84,306), opening the 84,527 prior high
Loss of the 83,827 higher low and then the 83,608 Asian low exposes the 83,367 PMI low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could break the compression either way
Lower highs from 84,527 against flat swing lows near 83,610–83,640.
The US flash PMI beat knocked BTC from 85,700 to the 83,367 pmi low during NY hours. Since then it has held a range capped by the 84,527 prior high. The Asia session printed lower highs along a descending trendline, with rejection at the 84,278 swing high, while swing lows near 83,640 and the 83,608 asian low held. Price sits below both EMAs ahead of London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,608 asian low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the 83,367 pmi low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 84,360 asian high invalidates the compression read, with the 84,527 prior high next
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the read via US yields
05:47 UTC
Post-PMI downtrend, now ranging · RSI 51 · price 84,063.42
Range 83600–84530 with lower highs capping the Asia session.
The hot US flash PMI beat drove a drop from 85826 to the 83367 pmi low. Price has since held a range below the 84527 prior high, sitting about 28% into the pmi drop fib. Late in the Asia session, the 83641 swing low held twice while highs stepped lower along a falling trendline near 84278, below the 84360 asian high; RSI(14) is mid-range around 51 ahead of London open.
Support: 83,641.00, 83,608.00, 83,367.00
Resistance: 84,278.00, 84,360.00, 84,527.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84278 trendline opens the path to the 84360 asian high, then the 84527 prior high
Failure to hold the 83641 swing low exposes the 83608 asian low, then the 83367 pmi low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Asian range 83,608–84,360 with descending highs capping rebounds.
BTC has held a late-Asia session range of 83,608–84,360 since the NY-hours slide to the 83,367 pmi low, which followed yesterday's hot US flash PMIs. A descending trendline of lower highs from the 84,527 swing high capped the latest bounce with a rejection at 84,278. Price is back at the 84,000 psych level near the 38.2% retrace of the bounce off the asian low, with RSI(14) flat at 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and 84,360 asian high breaks the descending-highs sequence and exposes the 84,527 swing high
Failure to hold 84,000 psych puts the 83,608 asian low back in play; a break there opens the 83,367 pmi low
London open inside the Asian range, with no break of either side yet
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs above a flat Asian base at 83,610–83,650.
The hot US PMI beat drove the 14:00 UTC drop from 85,800 to the 83,367 pmi low. The recovery stalled at the 84,527 prior high, just under the 50% pmi drop fib, and has since printed lower highs along a descending line while the Asian session built a flat base around the 83,610 asian low. Late in Asia, the 05:00 UTC push to 84,280 met rejection at that lower-highs line, and price is holding just above the 84,000 ema20/psych area ahead of the London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,360 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and the compression read
Loss of the 83,610 asian low exposes the 83,367 pmi low
A slip back under the 84,000 ema20/psych area puts the Asian base back in play
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
05:06 UTC
Downtrend after PMI drop, now ranging · RSI 48 · price 83,939.56
Post-drop range 83367–84527, lower highs through Asia, higher low at 83641.
BTC broke lower on the hot US flash PMIs, falling from 85826 to the 83367 pmi low. It has since traded inside 83367–84527, with lower highs through the Asia session and the rebound stalling below the 50% retrace of the PMI drop. Late Asia is holding a higher low at 83641 above the 83608 asia low, with price just under the ema20 (~83980) and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 83,641.00, 83,608.00, 83,367.00
Resistance: 83,980.00, 84,346.00, 84,527.00
What it said to watch
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 84346 lower high breaks the Asia descending sequence; 84527 rebound high is the range top
Failure to hold 83608 asia low exposes the 83367 pmi low
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs since 84,527; Asia pressing its range floor.
The hot US flash PMIs knocked BTC from 85,800 to a post-PMI low at 83,367 during NY hours. The rebound stalled at the 84,527 prior high, and the Asia session has since printed lower highs at the 84,360 Asian high and 84,346. Late in the Asian range, price sits just above the 83,641 swing low and the 83,608 Asian low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 39 and roughly 60% through the PMI rebound fib.
What it said to watch
Break below the 83,608 asian low exposes the 83,367 post-pmi low
Close back above the 84,000 round number and the lower-high trendline near 84,350 negates the lower-high sequence
Clearing the 84,527 prior high would complete a full retrace of the PMI rebound fib
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the PMI slide · RSI 38 · price 83,756.76
Lower highs from 84,527; late-Asia push back toward the Asian low.
Since the hot US flash PMIs knocked BTC to the 83,367 PMI low, the rebound has stalled at the 84,527 lower high. Asia saw a rejection at the 84,346 Asian high, and late in the session price is back near the 83,608 Asian low. That sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements of the PMI-low rebound, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,608 Asian low exposes the 83,367 PMI low and completes the full PMI-low rebound retracement
Reclaim of the 84,000 round number and a break of the lower-highs trendline through the 84,346 Asian high would negate the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift the rates-driven read
BTC broke lower during NY hours after the hot US flash PMIs. The pmi drop ran from 85826 to the 83367 pmi low, and the rebound stalled at the 84527 swing high, just short of the 50% retrace. Late in the Asia session, price is back near the 83608 asian low, capped by a lower-highs line after a rejection just below the 84360 asian high. RSI(14) is at 34, and price sits under both EMAs.
Support: 83,607.93, 83,367.19
Resistance: 84,360.10, 84,526.91
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 83608 exposes the pmi low at 83367
A reclaim of the 84360 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and the rejection sequence
A move back above the 84527 swing high takes price past the 50% retrace of the pmi drop
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could reprice rates and materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after post-PMI drop · RSI 37 · price 83,809.70
Range 83,367–84,527 with lower highs, price in lower half.
BTC broke down from 85,800 after the hot US flash PMIs, bottoming at the 83,367 pmi low during NY hours. Since then it has formed lower highs off the 84,527 swing high, and late Asia session is back below the 84,000 psych level. Price sits between the asian low at 83,608 and the asian high at 84,360, with RSI(14) near 37.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,608 asian low exposes the 83,367 pmi low; losing that resumes the post-PMI downtrend
Reclaim of 84,000 psych and a close above the lower-highs trendline and 84,360 asian high would reopen the 84,527 swing high
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift this read via yields and USD
Since the hot US PMIs knocked BTC from 85826 to the 83367 pmi low during NY hours, price has held a range. The rebound high at 84527 stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the pmi drop fib. In the Asia session, the 03:00 rejection at the 84346 lower high has price pressing the 83746 swing low, with RSI(14) near 38 and the 84000 round number now overhead.
Support: 83,745.77, 83,607.93, 83,367.19
Resistance: 84,000.00, 84,346.11, 84,526.91
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83746 swing low opens the asian low at 83608, then the 83367 pmi low
Reclaim of the 84000 round number and a break of the lower-highs trendline near 84346 invalidates the lower-high sequence
A move through the 84527 rebound high puts the 50% level of the pmi drop fib (~84597) in play
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, around London open, could shift the read via yields and USD
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs after PMI drop · RSI 39 · price 83,901.60
Lower highs from 84,527; Asian range 83,608–84,360 intact.
BTC sold off on the hot US flash PMIs, bottoming at the 83,367 pmi low, and has printed lower highs since the 84,527 swing high late in NY hours. Asia session has held an 83,608–84,360 range; the latest bounce was rejected just under the Asian high and price is back below the 84,000 round number, RSI(14) near 39.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,608 Asian low opens a retest of the 83,367 pmi low
Reclaim of the 84,000 round number and a break of the lower-highs trendline above the 84,360 Asian high invalidates the lower-high read; 84,527 swing high sits above
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Range 83,367–84,527 after PMI breakdown; lower highs vs higher lows.
BTC dropped from 85,826 in NY hours after the hot US flash PMIs and bottomed at the 83,367 swing low. It has since held a 83,367–84,527 range, with lower highs pressing against higher lows. Late in the Asia session, price sits mid-range between the 83,608 asia low and 84,360 asia high, just under the 38.2% PMI drop fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
What it said to watch
Close above the lower-highs line and the 84,360 asia high exposes the 84,527 range high, then the 84,700 bounce high
Loss of the 84,000 round number and the 83,608 asia low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 83,367 swing low back in focus
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Range after post-PMI selloff · RSI 49 · price 84,233.24
83370–84530 range since NY; lower highs from 84527.
The hot US PMIs drove a flush from 85826 to the 83367 pmi low during NY hours. Since then price has ranged below the 84527 swing high. Late in the Asia session a dip to the 83608 asian low was rejected, and price has rebounded to 84233, near the 38.2% of the PMI drop fib and just under the lower-highs line.
Support: 84,000.00, 83,608.00, 83,367.00
Resistance: 84,360.00, 84,527.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84360 asian high and the lower-highs line reopens the 84527 swing high
Failure to hold 84000 psych returns price to the 83608 asian low; a break there exposes the 83367 pmi low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift this read
Range 83,367–84,527 since the PMI drop; Asia-session dip held above range floor.
The hot US flash PMIs knocked BTC from ~85,800 to the 83,367 pmi low. Price has since held a 83,367–84,527 range, with lower highs at 84,527 and 84,338. The Asia session dip to the 83,608 asian low was rejected, and price is now sitting on the 61.8% fib retracement near 84,180, just under the lower-high trendline.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,338 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and brings the 84,527 range high back into view
Loss of the 83,608 asian low reopens the 83,367 pmi low at the range floor
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 84,023.47
Post-PMI range 83,367–84,527 with lower highs, Asia leaning on the lower half.
The hot US flash PMI beat knocked BTC from 85,826 to the 83,367 pmi low. The late-NY rebound met rejection at the 84,527 swing high, just shy of the 50% fib. Asia has since printed lower highs from 84,360 and dipped to the 83,608 asian low before bouncing, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 36.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 83,608 asian low reopens the 83,367 pmi low
A break of the lower highs line and the 84,360 asian high puts the 84,527 swing high and the 50% fib back in focus
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 37 · price 83,907.60
BTC stays heavy after the hot US flash PMIs knocked it from 85,700 to the 83,367 pmi low. The evening rebound stalled at the 84,527 swing high, and the Asia session has since printed lower highs down to an 83,608 asian low. Price is bouncing back toward the 84,000 round number, still below the 38.2% of the swing high fib.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,360 asian high breaks the lower highs trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 83,608 asian low exposes the 83,367 pmi low
Rejection under the 84,000 round number keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Downtrend, Asia grinding lower · RSI 36 · price 83,945.55
Lower highs since the 84,527 bounce high, pressing the session low.
The hot US flash PMIs triggered a drop from 85,800 to the 83,367 pmi low during NY hours. The evening bounce stalled at the 84,527 bounce high. Asia session has carved lower highs under the 84,360 asian high since, and price now sits on the session low and the 50% level of the bounce fib, with RSI(14) near 36 and not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,920 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 83,579 swing low
Loss of the 83,367 pmi low would take out the post-PMI base
Recovery above the 84,360 asian high breaks the lower highs trendline and neutralises the Asia drift
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 37 · price 84,047.44
Lower highs off 84527 after PMI selloff.
The hot US PMI sell-off ran from 85826 to the 83367 pmi low. The rebound stalled at the 84527 swing high, just under the 50% retrace, and lower highs since have pushed price to a fresh asia low at 83950 in early Asia. The latest rejection came at the 84338 asia high, on the lower highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 83,949.55, 83,578.96, 83,367.19
Resistance: 84,338.12, 84,526.91
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84338 asia high and the lower highs trendline breaks the descending sequence; 84527 swing high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 83950 asia low exposes the 83579 swing low, then the 83367 pmi low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the PMI-driven rate read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 32 · price 84,068.42
Lower highs off 84527 since late NY; Asian range 84037–84360 leaning on its low.
Hot US flash PMIs triggered a sharp NY-session slide to the 83367 ny low. The rebound stalled at the 84527 swing high late NY, and the Asia session has since printed lower highs. Price is pressing the 84037 session low near the 38.2% level of the NY rebound fib, with RSI(14) around 32 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 84,037.45, 83,578.96, 83,367.19
Resistance: 84,360.10, 84,526.91
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84037 session low extends the lower highs sequence toward the 83579 higher low and the 50–61.8% zone of the NY rebound fib
M15 close above the 84360 asian high breaks the lower highs trendline and reopens the 84527 swing high
Loss of 83579 would put the 83367 ny low back in play
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the rate read driving BTC
Lower highs inside a 84090–84530 band after the PMI flush.
The hot US PMI beat drove a flush from 85826 to the 83367 pmi low during NY hours. The rebound stalled at the 84527 swing high, just shy of the fib 50% of that drop. Early Asia session is compressing in an 84092–84360 range, with the asian high and lower highs under the descending trendline capping price below both EMAs.
Support: 84,092.39, 83,367.19
Resistance: 84,360.10, 84,526.91, 84,596.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84092 asian low exposes the 83981 swing low, then the 83367 pmi low
Close above the 84360 asian high and the descending trendline reopens the 84527 swing high and the fib 50% near 84597
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Post-PMI low at 83,367, then compression inside 84,065–84,527 with lower highs.
The hot US flash PMIs drove a break from 85,700 to the 83,367 pmi low in the first hour of NY, followed by a 83,579 higher low. The rebound stalled at the 84,527 range high, just above the 23.6% sell-off fib, and early Asia session is compressing under a line of lower highs with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,065 range low breaks the overnight floor and exposes the 83,579 higher low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 84,527 range high reopens the 85,000 psych level
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in consolidation · RSI 43 · price 84,148.33
Post-PMI selloff, rebound capped, tight range forming.
The US flash PMI beat hit BTC during NY hours, dropping it from 85,800 to an 83,367 NY low. The rebound stalled at 84,527, just under the 50% fib of that drop. Price has since coiled in an 84,065–84,527 range into the early Asia session and now sits near the range low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 43.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,065 range low reopens the 83,579 swing low and the 83,367 NY low
M15 close above the 84,527 range high breaks the consolidation, with the 85,135 pre-pmi low the next reference
Williams at 08:10 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Range 84,065–84,527 with lower highs pressing the floor.
The hot US flash PMIs drove a NY-session drop from 85,826 to the 83,367 ny low. The rebound stalled at the 84,527 range top, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the drop. Lower highs since then have pushed price to 84,220 in early Asia, just above the 84,160 session low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,065 range floor reopens the 83,367 ny low
Break of the lower highs line and a close above the 84,527 range top brings the 50% retrace near 84,600 into view
Failure to hold the 84,160 session low extends the lower high sequence toward the range floor
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Downtrend after sharp drop, now stabilising · RSI 53 · price 84,276.19
Higher lows off NY low, compressed range below 84,530.
The hot US PMI beat drove a flush from 85,830 to the 83,367 NY low. Since then price has built a higher low at 83,579 and compressed into an 84,065–84,527 range, capped below the 50% level of the drop fib. Asia session is just opening, and the shallow rising lows line under price is still intact.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,527 range top opens the 84,699 swing high, then the 85,135 london low
Failure to hold the 84,065 range base exposes the 83,579 higher low and the 83,367 ny low
Loss of the rising lows line shifts the range into a fresh test of the base
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift this read through yields and USD
Tight 84070–84527 consolidation after the NY-session low at 83367.
BTC broke down from 85,800 on the 14:00 UTC bar after the hot US flash PMI beat. The drop bottomed at the 83,367 NY low. Since then it has held a narrow 84,070 range low to 84,527 range high consolidation into the Asia session open, with price parked on the 38.2% PMI drop fib and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
What it said to watch
Close above the 84,527 range high puts the 50% PMI drop fib near 84,600 and the 84,699 lower high in view
Loss of the 84,206 higher low and the 84,070 range low reopens the 83,367 NY low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read