BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 24 September 2026

Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.

23:04 UTC

Downtrend since Wednesday, now consolidating · RSI 50 · price 84,143.34

Double top completed below 85,000 neckline; 83,700–84,750 range.

Monday's London-session breakout from 81,600 ran to 87,273. Wednesday's second test at 87,183 failed, and the NY-hours slide after the strong US PMI beats broke the 85,000 neckline to complete a double top, while Thursday's London drop reached 82,802, close to the pattern's measured move. Price has since held a range between the 83,720 range base and Thursday's high at 84,749, sitting on EMA(20) below a declining EMA(50) with RSI(14) back near 50, and the lower-high trendline from Wednesday's top and the 38.2% fib near 84,480 overhead.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,749 Thursday high and the lower-high trendline opens a retest of the 85,000 neckline, near the 50% fib
  • Failure to hold the 83,720 range base exposes Thursday's low at 82,802
  • Loss of EMA(20) near 84,090 would put price back under both averages inside the range
  • Friday's US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), plus Williams at 09:15 UTC, could materially shift this read

22:04 UTC

Downtrend off the double top, bounce stalling · RSI 53 · price 84,133.35

Lower highs from 87180; consolidation 83700–84750 above the 82800 low.

Monday's London-open impulse from 81600 topped at 87270. A second test at 87180 on Wednesday failed, completing a double top that broke the 85000 neckline in the NY session after the hot US PMIs, and the drop reached the 82800 Thursday low near the measured move. The NY rebound after the claims beat set a higher low at 83240 but stalled at the 84750 Thursday high, just under the 38.2–50% fib zone of the drop, and price is now compressing above the EMA(20) near 83950 but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 53.

Support: 83,950.00, 83,240.00, 82,800.00

Resistance: 84,750.00, 85,000.00

What it said to watch

  • Thu high at 84750 is the area to watch for rejection or break of the lower highs line
  • H1 close back above the 85000 neckline, the 50% fib of the drop, would challenge the double top read
  • Loss of the EMA(20) and the 83240 higher low reopens the 82800 Thu low
  • Fri Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Williams and Hammack also speaking

21:08 UTC

Downtrend since Wednesday, momentum flattening · RSI 48 · price 84,218.25

Lower highs and lower lows below the 87.2k double top; 82.8k–84.75k range.

Monday's London-open impulse from the 80,700 area ran to 87,273. It stalled into a double top with Wednesday's 87,183, and that structure gave way from the 85,830 breakdown level when the hot US PMI beats hit during NY hours, with lower highs and lower lows printing since as the USD firmed. Thursday's London slide to the 82,800 swing low was bought back in NY toward an 84,750 lower high near the 38.2% retrace of the week's rally, leaving price just above EMA(20) around 84,090, below EMA(50) near 84,370, and RSI(14) flat around 48.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,750 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and brings the 85,830 breakdown level back into view
  • Loss of EMA(20) near 84,090 and the 83,240 NY low exposes Thursday's 82,800 swing low
  • Only a recovery through the 87,275 double top would negate the post-PMI downtrend structure
  • Fri Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), plus Williams (09:15 UTC), could materially shift this read

20:04 UTC

Short-term downtrend, stabilising · RSI 51 · price 84,208.26

Lower highs from 87,183; Thursday base above 82,800.

Monday's London-morning impulse from 81,600 to 87,273 stalled into a double top with Wednesday's 87,183. The hot US flash PMIs on Wednesday then broke the 85,000 range floor, and Thursday's London session printed a lower low at 82,802, just past the 61.8% retrace of Monday's impulse. The NY-session rebound has built Thursday higher lows, with price now between the ema20 (~84,076) and ema50 (~84,380) and RSI(14) near 51, while supply has capped the 84,749 Thursday high twice.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,749 thu high and the lower-highs line reopens the 85,000 range floor
  • Loss of the ema20 and the Thursday higher lows exposes the 83,367 wed low
  • A break of the 82,802 thu low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 61.8% retrace
  • Friday's Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
  • Williams (09:15 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) on October hike timing

19:04 UTC

Downtrend since midweek, rebound stalling · RSI 52 · price 84,211.26

Lower highs and lower lows below the 87.2k double top; 82.8k–84.75k base forming.

The rally that began at Monday's London open topped twice near 87,200. Wednesday's hot US PMIs then broke the 85,000 psych neckline during NY hours and started a lower-high, lower-low sequence. Thursday's London-open flush to a 82,802 week low was reclaimed through the NY session, and an 83,240 higher low has formed since. Two probes of the 84,750 lower high have been rejected, leaving price just above the EMA(20) near 83,960 and below the EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat around 52.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,750 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and brings the 85,000 psych level into play, where the 50% retrace of the 87.2k–82.8k decline also sits
  • Reclaim of the pre-pmi base near 85,830 would weaken the double top read
  • Hourly close back below the ema20 near 83,960 returns price to the lower half of the base
  • Loss of the 83,240 higher low reopens the 82,802 week low
  • Fri: Williams at 09:15 UTC, durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read

18:04 UTC

Downtrend since Tuesday, momentum flattening · RSI 46 · price 83,848.66

Double top at 87.2k broken, lower highs into 82.8k–84.75k range.

Monday's impulse from 80,504 to 87,273 was retested at 87,183 during Tuesday's Asia session and capped. That completed a double top, and Wednesday's hot US PMI beat drove the break of the 85,000 neckline during NY hours. Since then the chart has printed lower highs and a new week low at 82,802 on Thursday. Price is now pinned near the 50% retracement of the Monday impulse (~83,890), just below EMA(20) at 83,990. RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s, and the 84,750 range top has capped the rebound from the firm claims print.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,750 range top breaks the lower highs trendline; the 85,000 neckline is the next overhead reference
  • Failure to hold the 83,367 swing low, then the 82,802 week low, extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 61.8% fib of the Monday impulse (~83,090)
  • Reclaim and hold of EMA(20) near 83,990 shifts the read toward range rotation rather than trend continuation
  • Fri Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC (1y f/c 4.6%) could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks 09:15 UTC

17:05 UTC

Downtrend from double top, now basing in a range · RSI 53 · price 84,255.21

Lower high at 87,183, neckline break, 82,802 to 84,750 range.

Monday's London-open rally from the 81,095 weekly open peaked at 87,273. A marginally lower retest at 87,183 early Wednesday completed a double top, and its 85,000 neckline gave way in the NY session after the hot US PMI beats. Since then price has ranged between the 82,802 swing low, set in London on Thursday, and a 84,500–84,750 range top that lines up with the 38.2% level of the decline fib. Thursday's NY rebound is printing higher lows and has reclaimed EMA(20), while EMA(50) still sits overhead and RSI(14) has recovered to the low 50s.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,750 range top opens a retest of the 85,000 neckline and the 50% decline fib
  • Loss of the 83,890 higher low and the higher lows trendline undercuts Thursday's rebound structure
  • Break of the 82,802 swing low resumes the double top unwind toward the 81,095 weekly open
  • Fri durable goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read

16:04 UTC

Downtrend since Wednesday, rebound stalling · RSI 49 · price 84,122.36

Double top at 87,183-87,273, lower highs and lower lows since the 85,000 neckline broke.

Monday's London-open impulse carried price from the 81,000s to a 87,273 week high. Early Wednesday a second test at 87,183 failed, and the double top completed when the 85,000 neckline gave way in Wednesday's NY session after the hot US PMI beats. Thursday's London open extended the lower-low sequence to 82,802, and the NY rebound stalled at Thursday's high of 84,734, just above the 38.2% fib of the drop. Price now sits on ema20 near 84,000, below EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat around 49.

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close above the 84,734 Thu high and the lower-highs trendline would open a retest of the 85,000 neckline, which is also the 50% fib of the drop
  • Failure to hold ema20 near 84,000 and Thursday's NY low at 83,240 exposes the 82,802 swing low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
  • Friday's Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1y f/c 4.6%) could materially shift this read
  • Fed speakers Williams (09:15 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) are an added macro risk for the rebound structure

15:04 UTC

Downtrend since Wednesday, below both EMAs · RSI 43 · price 83,507.04

Double top at 87,200 broken, lower highs and lower lows.

Monday's London-open breakout from the 81,600 breakout base ran to 87,273, but Wednesday's 87,183 retest failed to extend and formed a double top. The hot US PMI prints in Wednesday's NY session broke the 85,000 neckline, and price has since printed lower highs and a fresh swing low at 82,802 in London hours today. The NY-hours bounce to 84,734, near the 38.2% retracement of the decline, met rejection and closed back under the ema20.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,733 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 85,000 neckline back in play
  • Failure to hold the 82,802 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 81,600 breakout base
  • Holding below the ema20 near 83,720 keeps the post-PMI downtrend structure intact
  • Fri UoM inflation expectations (1y f/c 4.6%) and durable goods could materially shift this read

14:04 UTC

Downtrend after double top, bouncing · RSI 47 · price 84,067.42

Lower highs near 84,500, lower low at 82,802; price retesting EMA20 from below.

Monday's London-open breakout from 81,600 ran to an 87,273 week high. Wednesday's second push stalled at 87,183, and the break below the 85,000 neckline came in the 14:00 UTC bar after the hot US PMI beats. Since then H1 has capped at a lower high near 84,500 twice and printed a lower low at the 82,802 swing low in Thursday's London session, in line with the firm-USD, 5%-yield backdrop. The bounce into NY hours has taken price back to EMA(20) near 84,010, with a 84,185 session high so far, RSI(14) around 47 and price still below EMA(50).

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,500 lower high, the 38.2% level of the decline fib, breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 85,000 neckline (50% level) in play
  • Rejection at the 84,185 session high and a close back below ema20 keeps the downtrend structure intact
  • Loss of the 83,367 wed low exposes the 82,802 swing low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
  • New Home Sales now, Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (Fri 12:30 UTC) and UoM 5y inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and USD

13:05 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday · RSI 40 · price 83,490.05

Monday impulse, Tue–Wed range, range break lower Wed NY.

Monday's London-open breakout carried BTC from 81,600 to the 87,273 week high, then Tuesday–Wednesday ranged above the 85,000 range floor. Wednesday's 87,183 lower high was followed by a break through that floor in the NY session as the blowout US PMIs hit rate-sensitive assets. Thursday's London session extended to an 82,802 thu low, just under the fib 61.8 of Monday's rally at 83,246. Price now sits below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 40, holding just above the wed low at 83,367 while supply caps bounces at the 84,500 lower high.

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close above the 84,500 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending resistance from Wednesday
  • Failure to hold the 82,802 thu low confirms another lower low beyond the fib 61.8
  • A recovery back above the 85,000 range floor would neutralise Wednesday's range break
  • Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC today) and Friday's Durables/UoM 5y inflation expectations could materially shift this read

12:04 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Wednesday · RSI 35 · price 83,285.28

Double top at 87.2k resolved lower; lower-high/lower-low sequence below ema20.

Monday's impulse from the 80.8k mon base topped at 87,273, and Wednesday's 87,183 retest formed a double top. The pattern broke through the tue low near 85,000 as hot US PMIs lifted yields during Wednesday's NY session. After a Wednesday-Thursday consolidation capped at the 84,500 range top, the London open today broke that range to a 82,802 swing low. Price now sits at the 61.8% fib of the week's rally, below a falling ema20 near 83,970, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.

What it said to watch

  • Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and the Hammack/Paulson remarks could materially shift this read via US yields
  • H1 close below the 82,802 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the mon base near 81,600
  • Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 83,246 shifts focus to the 78.6% retracement near 82,150
  • Reclaim of the ema20 and the 84,500 range top, breaking the lower-highs trendline, invalidates the downtrend read

11:04 UTC

Downtrend since Wednesday, lower highs and lower lows · RSI 38 · price 83,389.17

Double top at 87.2k resolved lower; lower highs capping near 84.5k.

Monday's London-open breakout from 81.6k ran to 87,273, but a double top at 87,273/87,183 capped the week. Price then broke the 85,000 range low during Wednesday's NY session as hot US PMIs lifted yields and the USD. Since then, lower highs near 84,500 (the 38.2% retrace) have held, and this morning's London low at 82,802 extended the sequence. Price now sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close back above 84,500 breaks the lower highs sequence and the 38.2% retrace of the drop
  • Failure to hold the 82,802 London low extends the downtrend toward the 81,600 Monday breakout base
  • A recovery into the 85,000 range low (50% retrace) would test former support from below
  • Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson remarks at 12:50/13:00 UTC could materially shift this read

10:04 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Wednesday · RSI 34 · price 83,108.48

Double top at 87.2k, post-PMI range broken lower.

Monday's London-morning breakout from the 81.6k monday base ran to 87,273, but Wednesday's retest stalled at 87,183. That double top gave way when the hot US PMIs hit on Wednesday afternoon, driving price through 85,000 to a pmi low at 83,367. After a day of lower highs inside a 83,367–84,527 range, early London today broke the range lower to a session low at 82,802, just through the 61.8% fib of the week's impulse. Price sits below the EMA(20) near 84,100 with RSI(14) around 34.

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close back above the 83,367 pmi low would mark the range break as a false break
  • Failure to hold the 82,802 session low and 61.8% fib exposes the monday base near 81,600
  • A close above the 84,527 range top and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read

09:05 UTC

Downtrend since Wednesday's range break, momentum stalling · RSI 39 · price 83,603.93

Double top broke down; lower-high box 83,180–84,530 below ema20.

Monday's European-morning breakout from the 81,600 breakout base ran to 87,273, and Wednesday's 87,183 retest formed a double top over the 85,000–87,270 range. The hot US PMI print broke the Tue low at 85,000 in Wednesday's 14:00 UTC hour. Since then price has sat below ema20 (~84,260), with lower highs holding under the 84,530 range cap. At London open today price swept the Wed low at 83,367 to a session low of 83,178, then closed back above it; RSI(14) is near 39.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close back above the 84,530 range cap would end the lower-high sequence and put the 38.2% fib near 84,740 in play
  • Failure to hold the 83,178 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 81,600 breakout base
  • Reclaim of the Tue low at 85,000 (near the 50% fib) would neutralise the double top break
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read via yields and USD

08:04 UTC

Weekly rally reversed, corrective downswing basing · RSI 40 · price 84,385.07

Double top 87.2k, 85k neckline broken, 83.4–84.5k base.

Monday's NY-session surge from the 81,095 weekly open ran to the 87,273 week high by Tuesday's Asia session. Wednesday's retest stalled at 87,183, forming a double top, and the hot US flash PMIs pushed price through the 85,000 neckline during NY hours to the 83,367 pmi low, near the 50% retrace of the week rally fib. Since then price has held a tight 83,600–84,530 consolidation, with the Asia low at 83,608 intact, RSI(14) near 40 and price flat against EMA(20) around 84,415 after the latest bar poked above the lower highs line.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,527 range top confirms the break of the lower highs line and opens a retest of the 85,000 neckline
  • Reclaim of the 85,000 neckline negates the double top read, with the 87,273 week high the next cap
  • Failure to hold the 83,608 asia low exposes the 83,367 pmi low; a break there puts the 81,095 weekly open back in view
  • Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the rate-driven read on BTC

07:04 UTC

Downtrend from double top, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 83,932.57

Double top completed below 85,000 neckline; post-PMI consolidation with lower highs and higher lows.

Monday's impulse from 81,593 through the London open ran to an 87,273 week high. A second test at 87,183 in Wednesday's Asia session failed, and the double top completed when the 85,000 neckline gave way during NY hours on the hot US flash PMI beat, with firmer yields and USD weighing on BTC. Since the 83,367 PMI low, price has compressed in an 83,600–84,530 consolidation below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with lower highs capping from the 84,527 range top and higher lows off the 83,608 Asia low. That range sits on the 61.8% fib of Monday's rally, and RSI(14) is flat near 46.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,527 range top and the lower-highs line breaks the post-PMI consolidation; the 85,000 neckline is the next structural test
  • Loss of the 83,608 asia low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 83,367 pmi low and extends the lower-low sequence
  • Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
  • Reclaim of the 87,273 week high would negate the double top

06:04 UTC

Short-term downtrend after double top, weekly up-move retracing · RSI 34 · price 83,841.67

Double top broken below neckline; compact range under falling EMA20.

Monday's London-open impulse from 80,066 ran to an 87,273 week high in NY hours. Wednesday's Asia retest stalled lower at 87,183, and the hot US flash PMIs on the 14:00 UTC bar broke the 85,000 neckline to complete a double top and print an 83,367 pmi low. Since then price has compressed in an 83,600–84,530 range under a falling EMA(20) near 84,400 and a line of lower highs. The range high sits on the 38.2% retrace of the week's impulse, the range low near the 50%, and RSI(14) is holding in the mid-30s without a bullish divergence.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,527 range high and the ema20 breaks the lower highs line and opens a retest of the 85,000 neckline
  • Failure to hold the 83,608 range low exposes the 83,367 pmi low, then the impulse fib 61.8 near 82,819
  • Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD

05:07 UTC

Downswing within weekly gain, momentum soft · RSI 36 · price 83,954.54

Lower highs from 87,183, holding 83,370–84,530 range.

The week's dominant move was the London-open impulse on Monday, running from the 81,341 impulse base to the 87,273 week high by Monday evening. Wednesday's retest stalled at 87,183, and the NY-hours selloff after the hot US flash PMIs broke the 85,000 Tue low, completing a double top. Since then price has held the 83,367 Wed low. It is compressing below EMA(20) in a 83,370–84,530 box under a line of lower highs, with the Asia low at 83,608 sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the Mon impulse. RSI(14) is near 36.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the lower highs line and the 84,527 rebound high would break the sequence of lower highs
  • Reclaiming the 85,000 Tue low neckline would undercut the double top read
  • Failure to hold the 83,608 Asia low and the 83,367 Wed low exposes the 81,341 impulse base
  • Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the rate-driven pressure seen after the PMIs

04:04 UTC

Downtrend after failed retest of week high · RSI 37 · price 83,770.75

Double top at 87.2k, neckline 85k broken, pennant below.

Monday's London-open breakout lifted BTC from the 81,600 base to 87,273. Early Wednesday's retest at 87,183 stalled below that high, completing a double top, and the 85,000 neckline gave way in the NY session after the hot US flash PMIs revived higher-for-longer rate pricing. Since then price has compressed in a pennant between the 83,367 swing low and the 84,527 range top. That sits around the 50% retracement of the week's rally, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 37.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 83,367 swing low breaks the pennant and exposes the fib 61.8 at 82,819
  • Loss of the fib 61.8 leaves the weekly open at 81,095 as the next reference
  • H1 close above the 84,527 range top, then back over the 85,000 neckline, would neutralise the double top read
  • Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift rate pricing and this read

03:05 UTC

Short-term downtrend after double top, momentum stalling · RSI 36 · price 84,243.23

Double top breakdown below 85,000 neckline; tight consolidation 83,600–84,530.

Monday's London-session impulse from 81,600 topped at 87,273, and Wednesday's lower high at 87,183 completed a double top. The 85,000 neckline gave way in NY hours as the hot US flash PMIs lifted yields and the dollar, and the drop found a swing low at 83,367, below the 50% retracement of the week's advance. Since then price has compressed into a consolidation with rising lows between 83,600 and 84,530, capped by a falling EMA(20) near 84,610, with RSI(14) holding in the mid-30s.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the range top at 84,527 and ema20 near 84,610 would open a retest of the 85,000 neckline from below
  • Break of the rising consolidation lows and the asia low at 83,608 would expose the swing low at 83,367, then the 61.8% fib near 82,819
  • Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
  • Rejection at the 85,000 neckline on any bounce would confirm it has turned from support into resistance

02:04 UTC

Downtrend after a double top, momentum stalling · RSI 35 · price 83,968.53

Neckline break at 85,000, tight consolidation below EMA20 with lower highs.

Monday's London-open impulse from the 81,600 breakout base ran to the 87,273 week high. A Wednesday Asia-session retest stalled at 87,183, and the hot US flash PMIs during NY hours then broke the 85,000 neckline of the double top, printing an 83,367 PMI low near the 61.8% fib of the Monday impulse. Since then price has held a tight consolidation below the 84,527 range top and EMA(20) near 84,650, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and lower highs capping each bounce.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close back above the 84,527 range top and EMA(20) eases the lower-highs sequence
  • Recovery through the 85,000 neckline would put the double top read in question
  • Failure to hold the 83,367 pmi low extends the retracement of the Monday impulse toward the 81,600 breakout base
  • Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the rate-driven read on BTC

01:06 UTC

Turned lower after double top, momentum stalling · RSI 38 · price 84,241.23

Double top broken at 85,000 neckline; tight post-break consolidation above swing low.

Monday's London-open impulse from 81,593 ran to 87,273 into NY hours. A second test at 87,183 early Wednesday failed, and a run of lower highs completed a double top. The 85,000 neckline broke in the NY session on the hot US flash PMIs, which lifted US yields and the USD. The drop stalled at the 83,367 swing low, just above the 61.8% retrace of the week's impulse. Price has since held a tight consolidation between the 83,981 range low and the 84,527 range high, with RSI(14) near 38 after a brief oversold dip and price still under a falling EMA(20) near 84,745.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,527 range high and ema20 near 84,745 opens a retest of the 85,000 neckline from below
  • Failure to hold the 83,981 range low exposes the 83,367 swing low and the 61.8% retrace near 83,246
  • A break below the 61.8% retrace puts the 81,593 impulse base back in view
  • Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read

00:05 UTC

Uptrend stalled; turned lower after double top · RSI 36 · price 84,325.14

Double top at 87.2k confirmed via neckline break; tight range 83.4k–84.5k beneath.

Monday's London-session impulse from the 81,593 impulse base carried to the 87,273 week high into NY hours. A lower retest at 87,183 in Wednesday's Asia session completed a double top, and the 85,000 neckline gave way in the first hour of NY after the hot US flash PMIs revived hike bets. The drop found the pmi low at 83,367, just under the fib 50% of the week's range at 83,633, and has since compressed below the 84,527 range top, which sits near the 38.2% level. Price is holding below EMA(20) near 84,880 with RSI(14) around 36.

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 84,527 range top and EMA(20) near 84,880 brings the 85,000 neckline back into play
  • Reclaim of the 85,000 neckline would neutralise the double top read, with the week high at 87,273 overhead
  • Failure to hold the 83,367 pmi low exposes the fib 61.8% near 82,774 and the 81,593 impulse base
  • Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) Thursday could shift the rate narrative weighing on BTC

All markets that day · Today’s BTC/USD Live Scan in the terminal