Lower-high chain off 84970; Asian low swept, bounce capped at 38.2% fib.
The London-hours rally topped at the 84970 session high, and NY hours printed a lower-high chain (84692, then the 84612 lower high). A late sweep took out the asian low to a day low of 84012, and the bounce stalled at the 84371 bounce high, right at the 38.2% fib, with thin weekend liquidity and no fresh macro driver.
Support: 84,089.39, 84,012.48
Resistance: 84,371.08, 84,470.97, 84,611.82
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84371 bounce high and the 84471 asian high challenges the downtrend read; the 50% fib sits near 84491
Close through the lower-high trendline, near 84550 now, and the 84612 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 84089 asian low, then the 84012 day low, extends the downtrend
Weekend-to-Monday liquidity transition can exaggerate moves ahead of Tue JOLTS and Fed speakers
23:32 UTC
Lower highs through Sunday, rebounding after flush · RSI 51 · price 84,350.11
Lower highs from 84970, sweep of lows to 84012 reclaimed.
Sunday printed a string of lower highs off the 84970 24h high. The 22:00–22:45 UTC flush swept the 84175 swing low and Saturday's lows down to the 84012 sweep low, then reclaimed into the early Asia session. Price is sitting at the 50% flush retrace near 84350, flat to EMA20 with RSI(14) near 51, while the ema50 around 84440 and the 84612 lower high cap above on thin weekend liquidity with no fresh macro driver.
Support: 84,175.00, 84,012.00
Resistance: 84,440.00, 84,612.00, 84,970.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84175 swing low negates the sweep reclaim and puts the 84012 sweep low back in focus
Acceptance above the ema50 and the 84612 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence toward the 84970 24h high
Weekend-to-Monday liquidity transition can exaggerate swings; Tue JOLTS and Fed speakers are the next scheduled USD risk
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since day high · RSI 37 · price 84,097.39
Lower highs 84970/84693/84612, fresh lower low at 84012.
Sunday trade has been a lower-high sequence off the 84970 day high. The late-evening drop broke the 84175 prior low and set a session low at 84012, back below the Asian range floor near 84085. RSI(14) at 37 is soft but not stretched, ATR runs near $180, and thin weekend liquidity has no fresh macro driver behind it.
Support: 84,012.48, 84,000.00
Resistance: 84,175.30, 84,447.00, 84,611.82
What it said to watch
A close back above the 84175 prior low would turn the break into a false break
A recovery through the 84447 rebound high toward the 84612 lower high, where the lower-high trendline sits near 84560, undercuts the downtrend read; 50% of the day-high drop fib is at 84491
Failure to hold the 84012 session low and the 84000 round number extends the lower-low chain
The weekend-to-Monday liquidity transition can exaggerate moves; Tue JOLTS/Fed speakers and Wed ADP/PCE are the next macro risk
The London-hours break above the Asian range topped at 84970 and has fully unwound. NY hours printed lower highs at 84692 and 84612, and the last leg cut through the 84175 swing low and the 84085 Asian low to a window low at 84030. RSI(14) is near 37, not stretched, and ATR has widened to about 177 points on thin weekend liquidity with no fresh macro driver.
Support: 84,030.46, 84,000.00
Resistance: 84,085.40, 84,175.30, 84,447.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 84085 asian low keeps the lower-high sequence intact; a reclaim of the 84175 swing low would turn the move into a false break
The 84000 round number is the next reference below the window low at 84030
An M15 close above the 84447 lower high and the lower highs trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
The weekend-to-Monday liquidity transition can exaggerate moves; Tue JOLTS and Fed speakers are the next scheduled USD risk
84150–84700 range with a sequence of lower highs; the latest bar swept the lows and snapped back.
Weekend trade has printed lower highs from the 84970 swing high. A late-Sunday flush swept the 84175 swing low to 84143 before buyers stepped back in to a bounce high at 84447, near the 38.2% fib. Price sits below the EMA20 and EMA50, RSI(14) is near 42, and there is no fresh macro driver in thin weekend liquidity.
Support: 84,175.00, 84,143.00, 84,000.00
Resistance: 84,447.00, 84,612.00, 84,693.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 84143 sweep low turns the sweep into a lower-low and exposes the 84000 round number
A hold above the 84447 bounce high reopens the 84612 lower high
A close above the 84693 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
The weekend-to-Asia transition on thin liquidity can exaggerate moves; the next US catalyst is Tue JOLTS and Fed speakers
Lower-high sequence from 84970; 84175–84190 lows broken, price near window low.
A 460-point drop off the 84612 lower high broke the 84175–84190 afternoon broken lows, extending the lower-high sequence from the 84970 session high. RSI(14) is near 32 and price sits just above the 84085 window low. Weekend liquidity is thin and there is no fresh macro driver.
Support: 84,085.40, 84,000.00
Resistance: 84,180.00, 84,400.00, 84,611.82
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 84180 broken lows would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 84085 window low exposes the 84000 round number
A reclaim of the 84400 swing pivot, then a close above the 84612 lower high, breaks the lower-highs trendline
Thin liquidity into the Monday Asia session open can exaggerate moves around these levels
Lower highs from 84970 against higher lows from 84175; coiling 84300–84690.
Thin weekend trade rejected the 84970 weekend high and unwound to the 84175 weekend low. The rebound stalled at the 84692 lower high near the 61.8% retrace, and a 84308 swing low has held since. Price sits near 84548 around the 50% level, with the current bar probing the lower-high trendline into the Asia session open. There is no fresh macro driver, and RSI(14) is flat near 49.
Support: 84,308.15, 84,175.30
Resistance: 84,970.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84692 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and invalidates the coil read
Failure to hold the 84308 swing low exposes the 84175 weekend low
Weekend-to-Monday liquidity shift at the Asia session open can exaggerate moves
Wed ADP/PCE/GDP cluster is the next scheduled macro driver
21:47 UTC
Short-term lower highs within a 84175–84970 day range · RSI 44 · price 84,437.01
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84693 swing high; price mid-range.
Weekend trade was thin. After the rejection below the 84970 day high, price found a 84175 swing low, then rebounded until it stalled at the 84693 swing high, and has since printed lower highs and lower lows. Price at 84437 sits below EMA20/50, near the 50% fib of the 84175–84693 leg. RSI(14) is around 44, and there is no macro driver in play.
Support: 84,393.06, 84,308.15, 84,175.30
Resistance: 84,579.85, 84,692.73, 84,970.42
What it said to watch
A close back above the 84580 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 84693 swing high back in focus
Failure to hold the 84393 minor low and 84308 recent low extends the lower-low chain toward the 84175 swing low
The weekend-to-Monday transition as FX reopens: thin liquidity can exaggerate moves, and there is no scheduled US data in the next 8h
Thin weekend trade has built an 84175–84970 range. The rebound off the range low stalled at a lower high at 84692, and price is now capped by the descending trendline from the range high, with rejection at the 84580 minor high. The pullback is holding near the 61.8% fib of the 84175–84692 leg with the 84393 swing low just below; RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and there is no fresh macro driver.
Support: 84,393.00, 84,175.00
Resistance: 84,580.00, 84,692.00, 84,970.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84580 minor high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence toward 84692
Failure to hold the 84393 swing low exposes the 84175 range low
Close above the 84970 range high invalidates the range read
Weekend-to-Monday liquidity transition can exaggerate moves in either direction
Lower highs from 84970 against higher lows from 84175; price mid-range.
Sunday's rally was rejected at the 84970 day high during European hours. The NY-hours drop set a session low at 84175, and the rebound stalled at a lower high of 84693. Price is now near 84570, having held a higher swing low at 84393, close to the 61.8% retrace of the evening rally. Weekend liquidity is thin and there is no fresh macro driver.
Support: 84,393.06, 84,175.30
Resistance: 84,692.73, 84,970.42
What it said to watch
A close above the 84693 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 84970 day high
Loss of the 84393 swing low undercuts the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 84175 session low
Weekend-to-Monday transition: thin liquidity can exaggerate moves ahead of Tue JOLTS/Fed speakers and Wed ADP/PCE
Lower high at 84692 after rejection at 84970; mid-range between 84175 and 84970.
Weekend trade was rejected at the 84,970 weekend high at 13:30 UTC and slid to a 84,175 Sunday low. The rebound stalled at a 84,692 lower high, and price is back at the 84,393 swing low, between the fib 50% and 61.8% of that bounce. RSI(14) sits near 42 below both EMAs, with no fresh macro driver on thin liquidity.
What it said to watch
A close below the 84,393 swing low exposes the fib 61.8% at 84,373 and then the Sunday low at 84,175
A recovery above the 84,692 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the 84,970 weekend high
Thin weekend liquidity into the Asia session can exaggerate moves; no US data is due in the next 8h