21:08 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below cycle high · RSI 61 · price 84,237.23
Stair-step higher highs and higher lows; consolidating after rejection near 87.2k.
The trend turned up with the mid-August breakout from the 62–66k base. Since then price has built a stair-step of higher highs and higher lows, holding a rising support line and staying above a climbing EMA(50) near 76,900. The 17–20 Sep push cleared the 81,000 breakout area, the top of the prior 75–82k range, and set a cycle high at 87,273. A second test at 87,183 on 22 Sep was rejected, and the last five sessions have compressed between the 82,802 swing low and a lower high at 85,076. A firm USD and 10y yields above 5% are a mild macro headwind, and RSI has cooled to about 61 from the breakout push.
What it said to watch
- Wed 30 Sep ADP (f/c 70K) and PCE MoM (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read through the USD and yield channel
- A daily close below the 82,802 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib (~82,550) and the 81,000 breakout level, where EMA20 sits near 81,300
- A daily close above the 85,076 lower high reopens a test of the 87,273 cycle high; a close beyond that extends the higher-high chain
- A break of the rising support line and the EMA50 (~76,900) would shift the uptrend read toward a deeper correction