Lower highs and lower lows; fresh breakdown below 1.1300.
EURUSD has carved lower highs and lower lows for three weeks, stepping down from the 1.1650 area through a series of shelves to a fresh swing low at 1.1215. The latest selloff from the 1.1410 swing high broke the 1.1311-1.1322 lows and the 1.1300 broken level, with ATR(14) expanding to about 30 pips as oil, French spread stress and a dovish ECB weighed against a firm USD. Price sits below both EMAs, and the EMA20 is under the EMA50.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1380, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1300 broken level would undercut the range break and put the 50% selloff fib near 1.1313 in play
Failure to hold the 1.1215 swing low exposes the 1.1200 round number
A move above the 1.1380 lower high, or a break of the lower highs trendline, would end the descending sequence; 1.1410 swing high marks the top of the selloff
EZ flash HICP and US NFP on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; fresh break below prior range floor.
Lower highs and lower lows have stepped down since the 1.1654 window high, with each bounce (1.1498, 1.1410, 1.1380 lower high) capped beneath a falling lower-high trendline. The latest leg broke the 1.1311 floor of the late-September range and pushed through the 1.1253 prior ytd low to a 1.1218 swing low, driven by hawkish Fed repricing and USD at cyclical highs even as euro PMIs beat. ATR(14) has expanded to ~30 pips and RSI sits near 29, so the move is stretched but trending, with EMA20 still below EMA50 and price under both.
Support: 1.12175, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1253, 1.1300, 1.13797
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1253 (former ytd low) would mark a false break of the breakdown
Reclaim of the 1.1300 pivot, near the 50% fib of the 1.1410-1.1218 leg, would signal a deeper corrective bounce
Lower-high trendline near 1.1370 and the 1.1380 lower high cap the structure; a close above it breaks the downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1218 swing low exposes the 1.1200 round number
EZ flash HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Fed speakers later today also in focus
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; lower-high trendline capping.
The four-week slide from the 1.1654 top has kept a clean lower-high sequence. The trendline from 1.1495 through the 1.1380 lower high is still capping rallies, and price stays below both EMA20 and EMA50, driven by hawkish Fed repricing, firm oil and wider French spreads. The latest bar printed a new yearly low at 1.1265 and then closed back near the 1.1300 round number, with ATR(14) around 26 pips and expanding on that move.
Support: 1.1300, 1.12649
Resistance: 1.13377, 1.13797, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.1300 round number and a break of the 1.1265 yearly low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the fib 50% at 1.1338 and the 1.1380 lower high would break the lower-high trendline and challenge the trend read
Reclaiming the 1.1410 prior high would mark the first higher high since the September top
Lagarde at 13:30Z and US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00Z could materially shift this read
Fri EZ flash HICP (09:00Z, f/c 3.6%) and US NFP (12:30Z) are the next swing points for the trend
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654; fresh close below 1.1311 prior low.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 top. The latest bar closed below the 1.1311 prior low and set a new swing low at 1.1298. Each rally has stalled beneath the falling trendline, most recently at the 1.1380 lower high, and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR(14) steady near 23 pips rather than compressing. Hot euro-area CPI failed to lift EUR as US long-end yields at multi-decade highs kept USD firm.
Support: 1.1298, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1311, 1.1380, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1311 prior low would mark a false break of the new low
Close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the falling trendline; the 50% fib of the 1.1410 swing high to 1.1298 leg sits near 1.1354
Acceptance below the 1.1298 swing low opens the 1.1250 round number
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Friday's Eurozone flash HICP and US NFP are the next event risk for the 1.1300 handle
Lower-high/lower-low sequence since the 1.1654 mid-September peak; price pressing the 1.1311 swing low.
EURUSD has carved a clean lower-high/lower-low sequence through the window. It has shed over 300 pips from 1.1654 and holds below both EMA20 and EMA50, as rising US yields and Lagarde's pushback on an October hike outweighed the hot national CPI beats. The latest bounce stalled at the 1.1380 lower high, just past the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1410 swing high to 1.1311 swing low leg, and price has slipped back toward that low. ATR(14) near 22 pips is steady rather than compressing, consistent with a trend extending in measured steps.
Support: 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1350, 1.1380, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1311 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.1300 round number in play
Recovery back above the 1.1350 pivot would ease immediate pressure on the lows
H4 close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and challenges the downtrend read; 1.1410 swing high is the next structural cap
Lagarde (13:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the mid-month 1.1654 peak; EMA20 below EMA50.
EURUSD has posted lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 mid-month peak, with EMA20 below EMA50 and price under both. The bounce from the 1.1311 swing low met rejection at 1.1380, the fib 38.2 of the 1.1495–1.1311 leg. Price has since slipped back under the ema20 near 1.1350 as the hot eurozone CPI prints were faded after Lagarde's pushback on an October hike. ATR(14) near 22 pips is steady rather than compressing, a profile that fits trend extension more than a coiling range.
Support: 1.13114, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1348, 1.13797, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1380 fib 38.2 and the lower highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1410 prior high is the next swing pivot above
Failure to hold the 1.1311 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low, with 1.1300 round number the next reference
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Friday's eurozone flash HICP (f/c 3.6%) is the next event risk for ECB pricing