Since the week open near 1.1378, EURUSD has printed successive lower highs. Wednesday's post-PCE spike to 1.1380 faded, and Thursday's London open broke the 1.1300 floor. The NY-session leg after the hot ISM prices paid and French spread stress then extended the Wednesday-Thursday drop to a week low at 1.1215. The late-NY and Asia bounce has stalled near 1.1245, below the ema20 around 1.1265 and the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) recovering only to the high 30s.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1311, 1.1378
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1265, also Thursday's London low, would signal the bounce is extending into the Wednesday-Thursday drop
Reclaim of the 1.1311 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the week's downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1215 week low confirms a fresh lower low and puts the 1.1200 round number in play
EZ flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US NFP (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; multi-day 1.1311–1.1380 range broken lower on Thursday.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1391 peak. Thursday's London and NY sessions broke the 1.1311–1.1380 range and the 1.1300 psych handle as dearer crude and French spread stress weighed on EUR, and the ISM-hour NY leg extended to a 1.1215 week low. RSI(14) has recovered from oversold near 22 to about 34, but price is basing below the EMA(20) at 1.1273 and the EMA(50) near 1.1305, with the 1.1265 london low (held twice before NY broke it) lining up with the 38.2% retrace of Thursday's selloff as the first cap.
Support: 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1273, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.1265 london low and the ema20 would test the lower highs line from Wednesday's NY high near 1.1285
Failure to hold the 1.1215 week low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Recovery above the 1.1300 psych handle would undercut the range-break read
EZ flash HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wed; Mon–Wed range floor broken Thursday.
Wednesday's NY spike to 1.1380 started a run of lower highs. Thursday's London session then broke the 1.1311 Mon–Wed range floor and the 1.1300 handle, leaving it as a broken 1.13 level for the first time since May 2025. NY extended the leg to a 1.1215 week low after hot ISM prices paid and firm claims added to USD demand on top of oil and French spread stress. The late bounce has retraced less than a quarter of the 1.1380–1.1215 drop and sits below the ema20 near 1.1273, with RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-30s.
Support: 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1273, 1.1300, 1.13111
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the ema20 near 1.1273 and the broken 1.13 level would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1215 week low exposes the 1.1200 round number
1.1311 lower high, near the 61.8% fib, caps the retracement; a break there invalidates the downtrend read
EZ flash HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Mon–Wed range floor broken.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs all week, from Monday's 1.1391 peak to Wednesday's 1.1380 and Thursday's 1.1311. Thursday's London session broke the Mon–Wed range floor, and NY hours extended the slide to a 1.1215 week low. Dearer crude, French spread stress and a hot ISM prices-paid print lifted the dollar. Price sits well below EMA(20), near 1.1270, with RSI(14) around 32, and the late-NY bounce has so far stalled under the broken 1.1265 london low.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1300, 1.1311
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1265 london low, then the 1.1300 round number, would ease the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1215 week low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1200 psych level
Recovery through the 1.1311 lower high, near the 61.8% fib of the Wed–Thu leg, invalidates the downtrend read
Fed speakers tonight, EZ flash HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs are stacking up through the week: Monday's 1.1391 peak, Wednesday's 1.1380 spike, then 1.1311 today, all below the 1.1378 weekly open. Thursday's break started at London open and took out the Tuesday low at 1.1311. The selling then extended through NY hours after the hot ISM prices-paid print and hawkish-Fed repricing, reaching a week low of 1.1215. RSI(14) near 28 is oversold and price sits roughly 55 pips under the ema20, with the bounce high at 1.1245 capping the first recovery attempt.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1280, 1.1311
What it said to watch
EZ flash HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fed speakers Bowman, Williams and Cook tonight are a risk to the stretched move
H1 close above the 1.1245 bounce high, then the ema20 near 1.1280, would mark the first break of the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1215 week low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Recovery back above the tuesday low at 1.1311 would negate the range break
Lower highs since Wednesday; Mon–Wed 1.1311–1.1391 range broken lower.
The week opened at 1.1378, and EURUSD has set lower highs since Wednesday's PCE-driven spike to 1.1380 faded. Thursday's London open and the first hours of NY delivered the two main legs lower to a 1.1216 week low, roughly 160 pips under the weekly open. Firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid reading fed USD demand while euro PMI beats gave no lift, leaving price well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) oversold near 24 and the 1.1265 London low now overhead.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1300, 1.1336
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1265 London low would mark the breakdown as stalling and puts the lower-highs trendline near 1.1295 in focus
Recovery through the 1.1300 round number and the 50% PCE-high fib near 1.1298 needed before the Thursday high at 1.1336 comes into play
Loss of the 1.1200 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the week low; a new low with RSI(14) holding above 24 would flag bullish divergence
Fed's Bowman, Williams and Cook (19:00–19:30 UTC) and Friday's EZ flash HICP plus US NFP could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 29 · price 1.12332
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Thursday break below YTD low.
EUR/USD is down about 155 pips from Sunday's 1.1378 weekly open. It has carved lower highs since Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to 1.1380 was rejected, and every H1 bounce has stalled below EMA(20). Thursday's legs came at London open and again in NY hours around the ISM release, where hot prices-paid and 24-year-high Treasury yields drove price through the 1.1262 broken low and the 1.1253 YTD low to a 1.1218 session low. RSI(14) near 29 is oversold, but the lower-highs trendline and the Wed-Thu drop remain intact below the 1.1300 psych pivot and the 1.1311 lower high.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1262, 1.1300, 1.1311
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1262 broken low would flag a false break of the YTD low
Failure to hold the 1.1218 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1300 psych level and the 1.1311 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the Wed-Thu drop structure (38.2% retrace near 1.1280)
Fed speakers Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook (17:30-19:30 UTC today) could shift the read
Fri EZ flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US NFP (12:30 UTC) carry the main risk to this structure
Lower highs and lower lows; Tuesday low flipped to resistance.
Wednesday's PCE spike to the 1.1380 pce high faded through NY, and Thursday's London session broke the 1.1311 tue low and the 1.1300 handle. The late-London bounce stalled at 1.1311, a retest of Tuesday's low from below near the 38.2% fib. A fresh leg after the 14:00 UTC ISM Prices Paid beat then printed a 1.1262 day low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1300 and EMA(50), with lower highs intact and RSI(14) around 31, close to but not yet oversold.
Support: 1.12615, 1.1253
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.13114, 1.13797
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1300 psych/ema20 would neutralise the breakdown read
Break of the 1.1262 day low exposes the 1.1253 ytd low flagged in the digest
Price holding the day low while RSI(14) dips below 30 would set up a bullish rsi divergence
A close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1311 tue low reopens the 61.8% fib near 1.1335
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook speak later today; Friday's EZ HICP and US NFP could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; base forming above the 1.1265 yearly low.
Lower highs and lower lows have run since the 1.1378 Monday open. Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.1380 pce high on soft core PCE faded within hours, and the London session drove Thursday's break of 1.1300 to the 1.1265 yearly low as rising US yields and oil kept USD bid. The rebound stalled at 1.1311, where the ema20, the 38.2% fib of the PCE-to-low leg and Tuesday's low converge, and price now sits between a 1.1281 higher low and the 1.1300 round number. RSI(14) has recovered to about 38 from deeply oversold readings at the low.
Support: 1.1281, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1311, 1.1380
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 1.1311 (ema20 and 38.2% fib) would break the lower-highs trendline from the pce high
Failure to hold the 1.1281 higher low puts the 1.1265 yearly low back in play
Acceptance back above the 1.1300 round number would shift the read toward a broader base
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman, Williams and Cook today, along with ECB Schnabel, could move USD-driven flows
Friday's NFP (f/c 90K) and Eurozone flash HICP (f/c 3.6%) are the next structural catalysts
Lower highs from Monday's 1.1391 peak; break below 1.1300 retested from below.
EURUSD opened the week at 1.1378, peaked at 1.1391 on Monday and has printed lower highs since. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to 1.1380 faded as US yields and oil kept the dollar bid. The Wed-Thu drop broke the 1.1300 psych level during Thursday's London session and reached a 1.1265 week low. The rebound stalled at 1.1311, the 38.2% fib, and price has slipped back below 1.1300 into the NY session. It now trades under the EMA(20) near 1.1306, with RSI(14) near 35 and a steep line of lower highs capping each bounce.
Support: 1.1281, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1311, 1.1322
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 1.1311 38.2% fib and the lower-highs line would challenge the downtrend read and expose the 1.1322 wed low
Failure to hold the 1.1281 bounce low puts the 1.1265 week low back in focus, and a break there confirms a fresh lower low
Eurozone flash HICP, Fri 09:00 UTC, is the next EUR-side risk to this structure
Lower lows; broken Tuesday low being retested from below.
EUR/USD has printed lower lows since Sunday's 1.1378 week open. Wednesday's PCE spike to 1.1380 was rejected under the lower highs line and sold through NY hours. Thursday's London leg broke Tuesday's 1.1311 low and printed a 1.1265 week low on the yield- and oil-driven USD bid, and the rebound from deeply oversold back above psych 1.1300 is now stalling at the tue low, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the 1.1380–1.1265 drop. Price holds below EMA(20) near 1.1314, with RSI(14) recovering to ~40.
Support: 1.1300, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1311, 1.1322, 1.1378
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 13:30Z and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00Z (f/c 55) could materially shift this read within the next two bars
An H1 close above the tue low at 1.1311 and EMA(20) reopens the 50% fib at 1.1322
Failure to hold psych 1.1300 re-exposes the 1.1265 week low
A break of the lower highs line near the 1.1378 week open would invalidate the downtrend read
Fri 09:00Z Eurozone flash HICP (f/c 3.6%) is the next scheduled swing point for EUR
Lower highs since Monday; 1.1300 floor broken in London today.
The week has been one-way lower from the 1.13776 weekly open. Monday's 1.13909 high and Wednesday's post-PCE spike to 1.13797 form a line of lower highs, and NY-session selling drove the Monday and Tuesday legs. London took over today, breaking the 1.1300 psych level and Tuesday low to print the 1.12649 yearly low as surging US yields and oil weighed on EUR. A 29-pip rebound bar followed, with price still below EMA(20) near 1.1312 and RSI(14) lifting off oversold to ~33.
Support: 1.12649, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.13114, 1.13797
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1300 psych and the 1.13114 tuesday low would mark today's break as a false break
Rebound stalling below the 50% fib of the Wednesday–Thursday leg (~1.1322) keeps the lower highs sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.12649 yearly low exposes the 1.1250 round number
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read within the next few bars
A break of the lower high trendline (near 1.1334 now) would challenge the downtrend structure
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg lower in London · RSI 18 · price 1.12679
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Tue–Wed range broken to the downside.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1391 week high. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to 1.1380 faded through the NY session, leaving price below the weekly open at 1.1378. The London session today broke the tuesday low at 1.1311 and the 1.1300 psych level, extending to a 1.1265 day low as surging US yields and Lagarde's dovish lean weigh on the euro. RSI(14) near 18 is deeply oversold, with price stretched well below EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.1265, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.13114, 1.13776
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1300 psych and the tuesday low at 1.1311 (near the 38.2% of the PCE spike fib) would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.1265 day low exposes the 1.1250 round number
A higher RSI low on a retest of the day low would form rsi divergence (bullish) against the oversold extreme
Lower-high trendline from Monday's high runs near 1.1375, close to the weekly open; it caps the downtrend read
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg extending · RSI 25 · price 1.12882
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; 1.1300 broken at London open.
EURUSD has printed lower highs all week from the 1.1391 Monday high. Wednesday's spike to the 1.1380 wed high on the hot Eurozone HICP beat faded through NY hours as US yields climbed. The London open today extended the slide through Tuesday's prior low at 1.1311 and the 1.1300 psych to a fresh week low at 1.1287. RSI(14) is near 25 and price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the lower-highs trendline from the wed high capping each bounce.
Support: 1.12871, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.13114, 1.13797
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1300 psych and the 1.1311 prior low would negate the London breakout
Acceptance below the 1.1287 week low leaves the 1.1250 round number as the next reference
The 38.2% retracement of the week drop sits near 1.1327, just above the trendline zone
A close above the lower-highs trendline would signal the impulse is stalling
Jobless claims (12:30 UTC), Lagarde (13:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1391 week high. Wednesday's PCE spike to the 1.1380 wed high was fully faded through the NY session as US yields climbed, keeping price under the lower-high trendline. At today's London open, price slipped through Tuesday's 1.1311 low to a 1.1298 week low despite euro-area PMI beats, and now trades below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.1298
Resistance: 1.1311, 1.1336, 1.1380
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1311 tue low would turn the break into a false break
A rejection at the 1.1336 day high, near the 38.2% fib of the drop from the wed high, keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.1298 week low extends the downtrend below the 1.1300 handle
A recovery through the 1.1380 wed high would breach the lower-high trendline
Lagarde (13:30 UTC), US ISM (14:00 UTC), then Friday NFP and EZ HICP could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence from 1.1380 pce high, fresh week low at 1.1306.
EURUSD opened the week at 1.1378, below Friday's 1.1392 close. It bled through Monday and into Tuesday's NY session to 1.1311. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 pce high met rejection and fully reversed in NY as strong GDP and Chicago PMI lifted US yields. The London open today printed a new week low at 1.1306 before a snap back to 1.1316, with price below both EMAs, RSI(14) near 39 and the lower highs line capping each bounce under the 1.1336 asian high.
Support: 1.1306, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1328, 1.1336, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1300 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above ema20 (~1.1328) and the 1.1336 asian high breaks the lower highs line and neutralises the downtrend read
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Friday's Eurozone flash HICP is the next risk event for the week low
Lower highs and lower lows; Wednesday spike fully faded, price pressing the week low.
The week opened at 1.1378 and has printed lower highs since Monday, with NY sessions driving both Tuesday's drop to the 1.1311 week low and Wednesday's spike to the 1.1380 wed high, which was rejected and fully faded. Price has stayed below EMA(20), now near 1.1330, since that fade, with RSI(14) near 35 as the Asia session pressed the 1.1315 asia low. Euro-area CPI beats across the big four failed to lift EUR, as dovish ECB commentary and firm US yields kept the USD bid.
Support: 1.1315, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1330, 1.1350, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1311 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of ema20 and the 1.1350 psych level would neutralise the lower-high read, with the lower-highs trendline and wed high near 1.1380 overhead
Back above the 50% of the Wednesday fade fib near 1.1347 shifts the read toward a deeper retracement
Euro-area PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC, Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The week has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1391 peak. Wednesday's spike to 1.1380 on the soft US PCE release was rejected at the weekly open, and the move was fully unwound into the NY close as US yields reasserted, a round trip that roughly retraced the week decline. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1332 and the 1.1350 round number, with RSI(14) around 31, and is pressing the 1.1311 week low set in Tuesday's NY session despite the hot eurozone CPI beats.
Support: 1.13114, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1332, 1.1350, 1.13776
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1311 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1300 psych level
A reclaim of ema20 and the 1.1350 round number would stall the decline; the lower-highs trendline and the weekly open near 1.1378 cap any recovery
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has printed a lower-high sequence since Monday's 1.1391 top, beneath the 1.1378 weekly open. Tuesday's London-to-NY slide set the 1.1311 week low, and Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 lower high was rejected above the 1.1361 50% fib of the Friday-to-Tuesday decline. Strong US growth data drove the fade through NY, leaving price compressed under EMA(20) near 1.1335, with the Asia low at 1.1321 holding and RSI(14) flat in the low 40s.
Support: 1.1321, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1335, 1.1361, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1311 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.1335 and the 1.1361 50% fib would challenge the lower-highs trendline below the 1.1380 lower high
Euro-area PMIs from 07:15 UTC are the first test of the 1.1321 Asia low
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1391; price retesting the 1.1311-1.1321 floor.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1391 session high. Tuesday's NY-session slide set the 1.1311 week low, the weakest since May 2025. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 wed high was rejected inside the hour and sold through NY hours as US yields firmed, retracing the 61.8% fib of the weekly drop on the way down. Price now sits below the ema20 near 1.1334 and is back at the 1.1321 wed low in the Asian range, with RSI(14) near 40 and no divergence against the lows.
Support: 1.1321, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1334, 1.1360, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1311 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1300 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 and an H1 close above 1.1350 would break the lower-highs rhythm and expose the 61.8% fib at 1.1360
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC: a hawkish shift on an October hike would test the 1.1380 wed high
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC), ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and DXY
Lower highs from Monday; Tuesday's 1.1311 low holding.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since the week opened near 1.1378. Tuesday's NY selloff set the 1.1311 week low as rising US yields outweighed hot German HICP. Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.1380 wed high, near the 61.8% of the Fri-Tue drop, came on the soft PCE print and was rejected and fully unwound, leaving price capped under EMA(20) near 1.1338 and resting just above the 1.1322 wed low with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1338, 1.1350, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1311 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of EMA(20) and the 1.1350 psych level would break the lower-high sequence
Close above the 1.1380 wed high breaks the lower highs trendline
Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM Mfg 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday open, basing above week low.
The week opened at 1.13776, below Friday's 1.13916 close, and has printed lower highs since: 1.13909 Monday, 1.13876 Monday NY, then 1.13797 on Wednesday. Tuesday's NY session set the week low at 1.13114. Wednesday's PCE miss spiked price to the pce high, but sellers capped it at the lower-highs trendline. The fib 50% of the Friday-to-Tuesday swing near 1.1361 then held the closes, and the NY session unwound the move to the 1.1322 wed low as US yields firmed. Price now sits just under the EMA20 at 1.1337 in the Asia session, with the asia low at 1.13252 and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.13252, 1.1322, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.1337, 1.13609, 1.13797
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.1337 and then the fib 50% at 1.1361 would challenge the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the wed low at 1.1322 and the asia low at 1.13252 puts the week low at 1.13114 back in play; a break below extends the lower-low sequence
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC; a break above the pce high at 1.13797 or below the week low would reset the structure
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1410; 1.1311–1.1380 band since Tuesday.
Lower highs have built since Friday's 1.1410 top, and Tuesday's NY-session slide set the week low at 1.1311 as hot national CPIs were sold. Wednesday's PCE spike to 1.1380 stalled at the week open, just above the 61.8% of the Fri-Tue drop, and was fully unwound through NY hours as US yields firmed. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.1337 and EMA(50) near 1.1346, testing the Wednesday low at 1.1322 with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1337, 1.1346, 1.1378
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1311 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1300 round number
Recovery above EMA(20)/EMA(50) at 1.1337–1.1346 returns focus to the 1.1378 week open
H1 close above 1.1380 breaks the lower-highs trendline and the 61.8% of the Fri-Tue drop
Eurozone PMIs from 07:15 UTC, Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1410 peak; Wednesday's rebound rejected above the 61.8% fib and faded back toward the week low.
The week opened with a small gap lower at 1.1378, and the Friday-to-Tuesday drop ran from 1.1410 to the 1.1311 week low during Tuesday's NY session. Wednesday's London rebound stretched to 1.1380 on the soft US PCE print but was rejected just under the lower-high trendline. Price then bled through NY back below the ema20 as growth beats and firm yields supported USD. Price now sits just above the wed low at 1.1322, with the 50% fib at 1.1361 the midpoint of that failed bounce.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1339, 1.1361, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H1 close above the wed high at 1.1380 breaks the lower-high trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the wed low at 1.1322 puts the 1.1311 week low back in play; a break extends the lower-low sequence
Recapture of the ema20 near 1.1339 and acceptance above the 50% fib at 1.1361 would signal the rebound is rebuilding
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read