Lower highs from 1.1410, Wed low 1.1322 holding just above the 1.1311 week low.
Lower highs have formed since Friday's 1.1410 top, and Tuesday's NY-session slide printed the week low at 1.1311, the weakest since May 2025. The soft US PCE print lifted Wednesday's rally to 1.1380, just past the 61.8% retracement and into the lower-highs trendline near the 1.1378 weekly open. Strong US growth beats then unwound the whole move back to the 1.1322 Wednesday low. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.1340 with RSI(14) around 39 and no divergence against the lows.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1380, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1340 would be the first acceptance above it since the PCE fade
Failure to hold the 1.1322 wed low and a break of the 1.1311 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1300 round number
A close above the 1.1380 wed high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the downtrend read and opens the path to the 1.1410 friday high
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 top; lower low at 1.1311 Tuesday.
H1 has printed lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 top, and Tuesday's London-to-NY slide set a 1.1311 week low. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike stalled at 1.1380, at the weekly open and just above the 61.8% retracement of the Friday–Tuesday leg. The rejection unwound the bounce through NY hours as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI prints supported USD. Price now sits at the 1.1322 day low, below EMA(20) near 1.1340, with RSI(14) near 36 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1378, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1311 week low confirms a lower-low; the 1.1300 round number is the next reference
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.1340 would ease the downtrend read
Recovery through the 1.1378 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline, then 1.1400 psych, breaks the lower-high sequence
Kashkari tonight 22:00 UTC; Thu HCOB PMIs, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1410; lower high at 1.1380, holding above 1.1311.
The week opened with a gap lower at 1.1378 and sold down to the 1.1311 week low in Tuesday's NY session, the latest step in a lower-high sequence from Friday's 1.1410. Wednesday's London bounce off the 1.1329 wed low reached the 1.1363 london high, near the 61.8% retrace of the Monday-Tuesday drop. The soft-PCE spike then stalled at the week open. ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid through NY hours, pushing price back below the ema20 at 1.1346 with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1346, 1.1363, 1.1378
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1329 wed low leaves the 1.1311 week low exposed; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.1363 london high would put the week open at 1.1378 and the lower-high line back in play
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could shift October hike pricing and this read
Thu Oct 1: Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC are the next structural catalysts for the 1.1311–1.1380 swing
Lower highs since Friday; higher low at 1.1329 not yet confirmed.
H1 has printed lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 top. Tuesday's NY session leg set the 1.1311 week low, and Wednesday's London high at 1.1363 stalled at the 61.8% retracement of the week's drop. The soft core PCE print spiked price to 1.1380, just above the 1.1378 weekly open and into the lower-highs trendline, but the move was rejected as ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. Price is back below the ema20 near 1.1348 with RSI(14) at 46, just above the wed low at 1.1329.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1348, 1.1363, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1348 and the 1.1363 london high reopens the pce spike at 1.1380
H1 close above the 1.1380 pce spike and weekly open breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1329 wed low exposes the 1.1311 week low and the 1.13 range floor
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak tonight (19:25–22:00 UTC) and could shift the read
Lagarde (13:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) on Thursday are the main event risk for this structure
Higher lows since Tuesday's 1.1311 low; lower-highs line broken Wednesday.
EURUSD topped at the 1.1391 week high in Monday's Asia session. It then sold off through Tuesday's London and NY hours to a 1.1311 week low before a late-NY bounce. Wednesday's London session broke the lower-highs line, and the soft US PCE miss spiked price to 1.1380 near the 1.1378 weekly open, where supply capped it. The pullback held a 1.1345 higher low just above the ema20 at 1.1351, leaving price near the 61.8% retracement of the week drop with RSI(14) at 57, mid-range rather than stretched.
Support: 1.13506, 1.13454, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13776, 1.13909, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1378-80 weekly open and PCE spike high opens the 1.1391 week high and the 1.1400 psych level
Break of the 1.1345 higher low and the ema20 at 1.1351 undercuts the higher-lows line and puts the 1.1311 week low back in play
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then Lagarde (13:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday; first higher low printed Wednesday at 1.1329.
The slide from Friday's 1.1410 prior high bottomed at the 1.1311 week low during Tuesday's NY session. A higher low in Wednesday's Asian range at 1.1329 then set up a London-led rebound back above EMA(20), which sits near 1.1349, with EMA(50) flat just below price. The soft US core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked price to 1.1380, but supply capped it at the weekly open and the bar closed well off the high, leaving the lower-highs trendline intact; price now holds at 1.1354, under the 1.1363 London high and near the 50% retracement of the Friday–Tuesday drop, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.1349, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1378, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1349 ema20 and the 1.1329 wed low breaks the higher-low line and puts the 1.1311 week low back in focus
H1 close above the 1.1378 weekly open breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the path to the 1.1410 prior high and the 1.14 handle
A hold above the 1.1363 London high would mark acceptance above the 50% retracement of the Friday–Tuesday drop
ECB Schnabel at 15:45 UTC and Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read after the PCE miss
Thursday's ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC, Prices Paid f/c 72.3) and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC are the next event risks for the structure
Lower-high sequence broken; higher low at 1.1329 after the 1.1311 week low.
After opening the week at 1.1378 and printing the Monday high at 1.1391, EURUSD sold off through Tuesday's NY session to a 1.1311 week low on broad USD strength. Hot euro-area CPI prints barely registered. Wednesday put in a higher low at 1.1329 during Asia and London lifted price through the lower highs line. The soft US core PCE miss then spiked it to 1.1380, and that wick was rejected. Price now holds above EMA(20) and the 61.8% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday drop near 1.1361, with RSI(14) in the low 60s.
Support: 1.1348, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1380 pce high opens Monday high 1.1391 and psych 1.14, the level the digest flags as the line for a genuine USD correction
Close back below the 1.1348 pre-PCE low breaks the Wednesday higher lows line and revives the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1329 Wednesday low exposes the 1.1311 week low
ECB's Schnabel at 15:45 UTC today; Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC on Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1410, higher low at 1.1329 forming.
USD strength drove the pair lower from Friday's 1.1410 double high. Monday gapped down, and Tuesday's London-to-NY selloff printed the 1.1311 weekly low before a sharp rebound during NY hours. Wednesday's Asia session held a higher low at 1.1329, then London pushed through the lower-high trendline to 1.1363, stalling at the 50% fib of the weekly move as the hot eurozone CPI beats were largely ignored. The Wed high was rejected and price is back at 1.1350, pinned between the EMA20 (1.1347) and EMA50 (1.1352), with RSI(14) flat near 53.
Support: 1.1347, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1378, 1.1400
What it said to watch
The US core PCE release (f/c 0.3% m/m) following the ADP beat could materially shift this read
An H1 close back below the 1.1329 higher low reopens the 1.1311 weekly low and the 1.1300 range floor
Acceptance above the 1.1363 Wed high exposes the 1.1378 weekly open and the 1.1400 round number
ECB's Schnabel (15:45 UTC) and Lagarde (Thu 13:30 UTC) on the CPI beats are the EUR-side swing factor
Lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 top; higher low at 1.1329 today.
The week opened at 1.1378, faded from the 1.1391 Monday high and broke lower through Tuesday's London and NY sessions after Lagarde's pushback on an October hike, printing a 1.1311 week low. Since Wednesday's London open, price has lifted off a 1.1329 swing low as USD eased on Williams' comments, reclaiming EMA(20) and EMA(50). It is now stalling at the 1.1363 session high, which sits on the 50% retracement of the Friday–Tuesday decline, with RSI(14) back near 60.
Support: 1.1347, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1378, 1.1391
What it said to watch
German flash HICP at 12:00 GMT, then US ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read within the hour
H1 close above the 1.1378 weekly open and the lower-high line breaks the sequence of lower highs since Friday
Monday high at 1.1391 and the 1.14 pivot are the next supply area if the weekly open gives way
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.1347 and a move back under the 1.1329 swing low keeps the rebound corrective
A break of the 1.1311 week low resumes the Friday–Tuesday decline
The week opened with a gap lower at the 1.1378 weekly open, below Friday's 1.1392 close. A run of lower highs through Monday and Tuesday then carried price to the 1.1311 week low in Tuesday's NY session, after Lagarde's dovish remarks. Wednesday's London session printed a higher low at 1.1329 as USD eased on Williams, lifting price back above EMA(20) near 1.1346 and the ema50 near 1.1352 and through the lower-highs line. The rebound is now testing the 1.1363 session high at the 61.8% fib of the week's drop, with RSI(14) back at 58 from sub-25 on Tuesday.
Support: 1.1352, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1378, 1.1400
What it said to watch
German prelim CPI at 12:00 UTC, followed by ADP and core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read within the next two bars
H1 close above the 1.1363 session high and 61.8% fib opens the path to the 1.1378 weekly open, then psych 1.14
A slip back below the ema50 near 1.1352 would leave the bounce as another lower high
Failure to hold the 1.1329 higher low reopens the 1.1311 week low
EUR/USD has trended lower from Monday's 1.1391 week high. London and NY both extended Tuesday's slide to a 1.1311 week low before Williams' no-urgency remarks triggered a late-NY rebound. A higher low at the 1.1329 Asian low led into a London push that reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.1345 and EMA(50) at 1.1352, then stalled at the 1.1360 session high, which marks the 61.8% retracement of the Mon–Tue decline and retests Tuesday's breakdown zone; RSI(14) has recovered to ~57 from sub-25 readings at the lows.
Support: 1.1345, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1360, 1.1378, 1.1391
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1360 session high / 61.8% level opens the path toward the 1.1378 weekly open and the 1.1391 week high
Loss of ema20 at 1.1345 and the 1.1329 asian low would break the higher-low line and expose the 1.1311 week low
German prelim HICP at 12:00 UTC (f/c 3.1% YoY) followed by ADP at 12:15 and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB Schnabel at 15:45 UTC is a second-half risk to the rebound structure
Lower highs since Monday; higher low off 1.1311 week low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1391 top. Tuesday's London and NY sessions drove the leg to the 1.1311 week low as USD extended its Fed-repricing run. Early Wednesday the pair lifted off the 1.1329 wed low on hot German state CPI prints, but met rejection at 1.1357, a lower high between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the Monday–Tuesday decline, and is now holding just above ema20 near 1.1340 with RSI(14) back near 54.
Support: 1.1340, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1357, 1.1378, 1.1392
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1357 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the weekly open at 1.1378, then prior close 1.1392
Failure to hold ema20 at 1.1340 and the 1.1329 wed low exposes the 1.1311 week low
German HICP 12:00 UTC, ADP 12:15 UTC and US core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; bounce capped at trendline.
The week opened at 1.1378 and printed its 1.1391 week high early Monday. From there price set a run of lower highs. The Tuesday London session drove the drop, and NY extended it to the 1.1311 week low on a bid USD, hawkish Fed pricing and Lagarde's pushback on an October hike. Wednesday's London open lift from the 1.1329 Asian low met rejection at 1.1357. That session high sits on the lower-high trendline and between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the week's drop, with RSI(14) back near 51 and price holding above EMA(20) but just under EMA(50).
Support: 1.1342, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1357, 1.1378, 1.1391
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1357 session high and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence and brings the 1.1378 weekly open into view
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 1.1342 and the 1.1329 Asian low puts the 1.1311 week low back in play
German prelim HICP at 12:00 UTC, then ADP at 12:15 and US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday; tight range above week low.
H1 has printed lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 peak (fri high). The slide accelerated in Tuesday's NY session as Fed hike bets lifted the USD, taking price to a 1.1311 week low that briefly undercut the 1.1324 YTD low before a sharp reclaim. Wednesday's Asian range held 1.1329–1.1346 (asian low at the base), and a lift into London open has price back above EMA(20) near 1.1340 with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s, a muted reaction to the German retail sales miss. Tuesday's high at 1.1358 (tue high), just above the 38.2% fib, caps the lower-high sequence, with the weekly open at 1.1378 next overhead.
Support: 1.1340, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1358, 1.1378, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1358 tue high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1378 weekly open in play
Loss of ema20 and the 1.1329 asian low returns focus to the 1.1311 week low
A close below the 1.1311 week low would confirm the false break read has failed
12:00 UTC Eurozone HICP (f/c 3.1%) could materially shift this read
12:15 UTC ADP and 12:30 UTC US core PCE (f/c 3.3%) are the main USD risks today
A close back above the 1.1410 fri high would negate the week's downtrend structure
Lower highs since Monday; tight range above Tuesday's flush low.
EURUSD has slid from Monday's Asia high at 1.1391. The 1.1378 weekly open gave way in Monday's NY session, and London extended the decline on Tuesday as widening rate spreads and Fed-hike bets kept USD bid. Tuesday's NY flush to the 1.1311 week low was retraced within two bars, but the rebound stalled at the 1.1344 day high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the week's drop, and has capped every bar since. Price is now compressing under EMA(20) against the lower highs line, with Tuesday's 1.1358 lower high above and the Asian low at 1.1329 being tested as RSI(14) holds near 42.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358, 1.1378
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.1344 day high breaks the lower highs line and exposes 1.1358
Break of the 1.1329 Asian low reopens the 1.1311 week low
German CPI at 12:00 UTC, then ADP and US PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Recovery above the 1.1378 weekly open would negate this week's downtrend structure
Lower highs since Monday, tight Asia range at the lows.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's session from the 1.1378 weekly open. The heaviest selling came in London and NY hours as hawkish Fed pricing and 2004-era US yields kept USD bid. Tuesday's NY flush to the 1.1311 tue low was reclaimed within two hours, but the rebound stalled at the 38.2% fib near the 1.1344 asia high, and price is back on the 1.1332 asia low, below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 1.13318, 1.13114, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.13437, 1.13578, 1.13776
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1332 asia low exposes the 1.1311 tue low and the 1.1300 round number
Break above the 1.1344 asia high and the lower highs trendline, then 1.1358 lower high, ends the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1378 weekly open would neutralise this week's decline
German prelim CPI (12:00 UTC), ADP (12:15) and US PCE (12:30) today could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 top; coiling after a false break below 1.1324.
The pair has printed lower highs since Friday's double top at 1.1410 and has held below the 1.1378 weekly open since Monday. Tuesday's London and NY sessions drove the slide on broad USD strength and 2004-era US yields, and Lagarde's pushback on October hike bets outweighed the HICP jump to 5%. The NY dip to the 1.1311 Tuesday low briefly broke the 1.1324 YTD low but was reclaimed within two bars, and price now coils in a 1.1333–1.1344 overnight range between the Asia low and Asia high, just under EMA(20) and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 1.1333, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1349, 1.1378
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1344 Asia high and 1.1349 38.2% fib breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 1.1378 weekly open sits above
Loss of the 1.1333 Asia low reopens the 1.1311 Tuesday low, with the 1.1300 round number below
Eurozone CPI/HICP (09:00, 12:00 UTC) and US ADP/core PCE (12:15–12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows around the London fix may distort the overnight range
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after a sweep of the YTD low · RSI 42 · price 1.1335
Lower highs since Monday; sweep of the 1.1324 low, then a tight range under EMA20.
EUR/USD has ground lower since Sunday's 1.1378 open. Monday's 1.1391 week high gave way to lower highs at 1.1366 and 1.1358 as broad USD strength and Lagarde's pushback on October hike bets weighed, and the HICP jump to 5% did not lift the euro. Tuesday's NY session undercut the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 week low before a 29-pip reversal reclaimed it; that bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib of the week's move. Price has since compressed in a 10-pip Asian range (1.1333 asian low to 1.1344 asian high), just under EMA20 near 1.1339, with RSI(14) around 42.
Support: 1.1333, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358, 1.1391
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.1324 ytd low negates the sweep and puts the 1.1311 week low back in focus
Loss of the 1.1333 asian low reopens the test of 1.1324
Close above the 1.1344 asian high and 38.2% fib clears EMA20 and brings the 1.1358 lower high into play; a break there ends the lower-high sequence
German Retail Sales (06:00 UTC), CPI (09:00), HICP MoM (12:00), then US ADP and Core PCE (12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; basing above swing low.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1378 weekly open. The heaviest legs came in London and NY on Tuesday, as Lagarde's pushback on October hike bets and 5%+ US yields kept the USD bid. Tuesday's NY dip to the 1.1311 swing low was a false break below the 1.1325 YTD low. The late-NY rebound stalled at the fib 38.2 near 1.1343, and price is now compressing just under EMA(20) and the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.1325, 1.13114, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.13431, 1.13578, 1.13776
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1358 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1325 YTD low, then the 1.1311 swing low, confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1300 round number
German and EZ CPI prints (06:45–12:00 UTC) and US core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Repeated caps at the fib 38.2 near 1.1343 keep the rebound a retracement within the downtrend
Lower highs since Monday; false break below YTD low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1391 top, with Tuesday's main legs lower at London open and into NY hours as Lagarde's pushback on an October hike and 10Y UST above 5.2% kept USD bid. The NY-session drop through the 1.1324 YTD low to a 1.1311 swing low was reclaimed within two hours, a false break. The rebound stalled at the EMA20 near 1.1343, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Monday–Tuesday drop and the falling trendline. RSI(14) has recovered from the low-20s to ~45, but price still sits below both EMAs, the Tuesday lower high at 1.1358 and the 1.1378 weekly open.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358, 1.1378
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1343 EMA20 and the falling trendline would put the 1.1358 lower high and the 50% fib near 1.1351 in play
A close back below the 1.1324 YTD low and a break of the 1.1311 swing low would negate the false break read
German Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and CPI prints (06:45 / 09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
US ADP and Core PCE (12:15 / 12:30 UTC) are the NY-session risk for the dollar leg
Recapturing the 1.1378 weekly open would neutralise this week's decline
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, sliding from Friday's high · RSI 44 · price 1.13379
Lower highs since Monday, false break of YTD low.
The pair has printed lower highs since the 1.1410 friday high. The week opened at 1.1378, Monday's NY rebound stalled at 1.1388, and Tuesday's London break of 1.1353 ran to a 1.1333 london low. Broad USD strength on 2004-era Treasury yields and Fed-hike bets drove a NY-session push through the 1.1325 ytd low to a 1.1311 swing low, but it was quickly reclaimed and leaves a false break for now. Price sits just below EMA(20) near 1.1342 with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s, and the 1.1358 lower high caps a descending trendline from Monday's high.
Support: 1.1333, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1358, 1.1378, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1311 swing low turns the false break into a fresh lower-low
Close above the 1.1358 lower high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the weekly open at 1.1378 next
Failure to hold the 1.1333 london low puts the 1.1325 ytd low back in play
German HICP at 12:00 UTC and US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read