EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 1.13297
Lower highs from the PCE spike; tight early-Asia range above the swing low.
The soft-PCE spike to 1.1380 met rejection and was fully unwound as US growth beats lifted USD. Lower highs pushed price to a 1.1322 swing low late in NY, still below the 23.6% of the PCE move fib. Early Asia is compressing in a 4-pip Asian range, with the Asian low at 1.1329 and Asian high at 1.1332, RSI(14) near 38 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.13286, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13322, 1.1340, 1.1360
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1322 swing low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
M15 close above the 1.1332 asian high and 1.1340 range cap would challenge the lower-high sequence; 1.1360 lower high marks the NY breakdown point
A move through the 1.1329 asian low shifts the Asian range test toward the swing low
HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC (around London open) could break the Asian range
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-PCE spike rejected, lower highs into 1.1322 low, now a tight 1.1329–1.1332 compression.
The soft PCE print spiked EUR/USD to the 1.1380 pce high at 12:30 UTC, but US growth beats and a firm dollar faded the entire move, and the NY afternoon slide set a session low at 1.1322. Since rollover, price has compressed into a 3-pip band at 1.1329–1.1332 in early Asia session, sitting at the base of the prior day's Asian range with ATR near 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1342, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1342 asian high breaks the compression and reopens the 38.2% retracement of the pce move near 1.1344
Failure to hold the 1.1322 session low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low, the digest's key downside pivot
HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in quiet Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.13307
Lower highs since PCE spike, tight range above NY low.
The soft-PCE spike to 1.1380 was rejected at once. The London break above the Asian range turned into a false break, and price fell through that range to a 1.1322 NY low. Early Asia is holding a 4-pip range between the 1.1328 range low and the 1.1332 range top, with the 1.1340 swing high capping and the 1.1363 london high well above.
Support: 1.1328, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1332, 1.1340, 1.1363
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1322 ny low exposes the 1.1312 tues low (weakest since May 2025)
Acceptance above the 1.1340 swing high would break the lower-high sequence off the PCE spike fib
A move out of the range low / range top band sets the next leg; ATR under 3 pips suggests no expansion before London open
Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 38 · price 1.13307
Lower highs from the PCE spike; tight range near the 1.1330 pivot.
The soft-PCE pce spike to 1.1380 was rejected, and a string of lower highs unwound the London high rally into a 1.1322 NY low as US growth beats absorbed the print. Price is now compressing near 1.1330 in thin early Asia hours, sitting on the prior Asian low at 1.1329. The 38.2% level of the pce fade fib sits near 1.1344, just above the asian high at 1.1342.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1342, 1.1363, 1.1380
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1322 ny low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
M15 close back above the 1.1342 asian high and the 38.2% of the pce fade fib breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 1.1363 london high would put the 1.1380 pce spike back in view
HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC are the main USD risk to the 1.1312–1.1342 zone
Post-PCE spike fully unwound; lower highs since 17:00 UTC, tight 1.1329–1.1332 drift above the NY low.
The soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 PCE high at 12:30 UTC was rejected as US growth beats lifted the USD. The post-PCE fade then ran through NY, briefly breaking under the Asian range low to a 1.1322 NY low. Thin post-NY trade has since compressed around the 1.1330 pivot, below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1342, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1342 Asian high would neutralise the post-PCE fade and put the 1.1380 PCE high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1322 NY low exposes the 1.1312 Tuesday low
HCOB manufacturing PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could break the current compression
US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC is the main USD-side risk to this read
22:16 UTC
Downtrend since NY open, flat after NY close · RSI 46 · price 1.13317
Lower highs off the 1.1380 PCE spike; NY low 1.1322 holding, tight 1.1329–1.1332 drift.
The soft-PCE pce spike to 1.1380 at 12:30 UTC was fully rejected. USD recovery on the growth beats then cut through the 1.1363 london high area, printed a lower high at the 1.1340 swing high and broke the 1.1329 asia low to a 1.1322 ny low. Price is now back at 1.1330–1.1332 in thin post-NY-close trade, RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1363, 1.1380
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1322 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1312 tuesday low
Failure to hold back above the 1.1329 asia low keeps the drift pinned to the lows
A recovery above the 1.1340 swing high (near the 38.2% of the pce spike fib at 1.1344) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts 1.1363 london high back in view
HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC, then Lagarde at 13:30 and US ISM at 14:00 UTC Thursday, could materially shift this read
PCE spike high rejected, lower highs into NY, tight post-NY base above session low.
The soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 pce high was fully unwound in NY as firm US growth data backed the dollar. Price then broke under the 1.1328 asian low to a 1.1322 session low. Since NY close it has sat in a 1.1328–1.1331 band near rollover, pinned under the 1.1340 ny shelf with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 1.1328, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1344, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1340 ny shelf and the 38.2% fib at 1.1344 would mark the NY slide as exhausted
Failure to hold the 1.1322 session low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and EUR HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC could break the thin rollover base
US claims 12:30 UTC, ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC and Lagarde 13:30 UTC Thu are the larger risk for this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1380 spike, flat base above 1.1322.
The soft US PCE print spiked EURUSD to 1.1380 at 12:30 UTC. Strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI data then turned it into a lower-high, lower-low NY decline that broke the Asian range low and printed a 1.1322 session low. Price is now flat near 1.1330 in thin post-NY trade, under the 1.1331 bounce high and EMA20, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1331, 1.1340, 1.1344
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1322 session low exposes the 1.1312 prior low
A recovery above the 1.1340 lower high and the 1.1344 asian high (38.2% of the NY decline) would break the lower-high sequence
An M15 close above the 1.1331 bounce high is the first sign the post-low base is holding
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, then Thu PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1340 after PCE spike rejection; basing just above 1.1322 low.
The soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 pce high during NY was fully rejected as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI data firmed USD. Price then broke the Asian range low and set a session low at 1.1322 late in NY. It now sits in thin post-NY trade under the 1.1331 bounce high, with lower highs intact from the 1.1340 range cap.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1331, 1.1340, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1322 session low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
M15 close above the 1.1340 range cap breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the PCE-fade retracement in play
Only a reclaim of the 1.1380 pce high would negate the NY rejection
EUR PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and US ISM 14:00 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows off 1.1380; Asian low broken, now retested from below.
The soft-PCE spike to 1.1380 at 12:30 UTC faded through NY on firm US growth data, with the lower-highs line capping every bounce. The pair broke the 1.1330 Asian low and printed a 1.1322 session low. It is now drifting in a 3–4 pip ATR range just under that broken Asian low as the Asia session opens, having barely retraced the pce drop.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1330, 1.1340, 1.1363
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1330 Asian low and the lower-highs line would break the NY downtrend sequence
Recovery through the 1.1340 lower high puts the 38.2% of the pce drop (~1.1344) in play, with the london high at 1.1363 above
Loss of the 1.1322 session low exposes the 1.1312 prior low
Fed Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and EUR PMIs from 07:15 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs since the 1.1380 PCE spike; Asian low 1.1329 broken, session low 1.1322.
Soft US PCE spiked EUR/USD to the 1.1380 pce high at 12:30 UTC. Firm US growth data then drove a full rejection, and NY hours carved lower highs through the Asian low into a 1.1322 session low. Late NY is basing just under 1.1330 with RSI(14) near 36, and the 1.1340 ny shelf is capping above.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1344, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1340 ny shelf breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1344 fib 38.2
Failure to hold the 1.1322 session low exposes the 1.1312 prior low (weakest since May 2025)
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and Thu HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs off the 1.1380 PCE spike; Asian low broken, price now retesting it from below.
The soft US PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to 1.1380. That high was rejected, and NY hours unwound the whole move, breaking the Asian low at 1.1329 and the 17:00 UTC ny shelf at 1.1340 before printing a session low at 1.1322 around 19:45 UTC. Late-NY price is back at the Asian low near 1.1330 and below the 23.6% fib of the drop at 1.1336, with ATR(14) compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.13286, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13404, 1.13437
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1322 session low brings the 1.1312 tuesday low (weakest since May 2025) into play
M15 close back above the 1.1340 ny shelf and the 1.1344 asian high would put the price back inside the Asian range and near the 38.2% fib
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift the thin late-session tape
EZ HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC Thu are the next scheduled catalyst into the London open
20:31 UTC
Downtrend since NY session spike, oversold-leaning · RSI 34 · price 1.13289
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1380 PCE high; late-NY break of the Asian low, now retesting it from below.
The soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 pce high faded through NY hours as firm US growth data backed the dollar. Late NY broke the Asian low at 1.1330 and printed a 1.1322 ny low. Price is now retesting 1.1330 from below, holding under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 34, in the lower part of the fib drawn from the pce high to the ny low.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1330, 1.1340, 1.1380
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1340 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 38.2% fib near 1.1344 in play
Rejection at the 1.1330 asian low confirms it as resistance; failure to hold the 1.1322 ny low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC tonight, then Thu HCOB PMIs (07:15 UTC) and Lagarde (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the 12:30 UTC spike · RSI 28 · price 1.13248
Lower-high sequence, Asian range broken to the downside.
The soft PCE print spiked EURUSD to the 1.1380 pce high at 12:30 UTC, but the move was rejected as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI data plus firmer yields lifted USD. NY hours have since printed lower highs under a falling trendline, broken the 1.1329 Asian low and set a session low at 1.1322. RSI(14) sits near 28 late in the NY session, with Tuesday's 1.1312 low just below.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1312, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1329, 1.1340, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1340 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Reclaim of the 1.1329 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Loss of the 1.1322 session low exposes the tuesday low at 1.1312 and the 1.1300 round number
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and Thursday's HCOB PMIs (07:15–07:55 UTC) could shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since 16:00 UTC · RSI 29 · price 1.13245
Lower highs and lower lows, Asian low broken in late NY.
The PCE fade is complete. The 12:30 UTC spike to 1.1380 fully reversed as firm GDP and Chicago PMI pulled USD back, and the 16:00 UTC drop started a lower-highs sequence that has now pushed through the asian low at 1.1329 in late NY hours. RSI(14) sits near 29 with price below both EMAs, the session low is at 1.1324, and the tuesday low at 1.1312 is the next reference.
Support: 1.13236, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13286, 1.13404
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1340 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 1.1329 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1324 session low puts the 1.1312 tuesday low in play
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could shift the read near-term
Lower highs since 1.1380 spike, back at Asian range low.
The post-PCE spike to the 1.1380 day high was rejected and fully unwound during NY hours as USD recovered on the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats. A chain of lower highs at 1.1360 (swing high) and 1.1340 (lower high) has pushed price back to the Asian range low, with a marginal new session low at 1.1328 late in NY. RSI(14) near 37 is not oversold, and Tuesday's low at 1.1312 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.13278, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13404, 1.13602, 1.13797
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1328 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1312 tuesday low
Reclaim of the 1.1340 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Holding under the 38.2% fib near 1.1348 keeps the retrace corrective; 1.1360 swing high caps above
Fed Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) on hike timing could shift this read in thin late-NY trade
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 31 · price 1.13288
Lower highs since PCE spike rejection, now pressing the session low.
The soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked EURUSD to the 1.1380 pce spike high, but it was quickly rejected as the dollar recovered on the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats. Lower highs since then have unwound the entire London rally, and after London close price is grinding along the session low at 1.1328 under a late NY cap at 1.1340, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1328, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1363, 1.1380
What it said to watch
A sustained M15 break below the 1.1328 session low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low.
An M15 close back above the 1.1340 late NY cap would stall the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1363 london high near the 61.8% of the pce spike fib.
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift USD tone during thin late-NY hours.
HCOB manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC around London open could shift the read.
18:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend since the 12:30 UTC spike · RSI 36 · price 1.13315
Lower highs from 1.1380, price back at the Asian range floor.
The soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 pce high was rejected as ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats landed. The 16:00 UTC flush from the 1.1360 lower high has now retraced about 94% of the day rally fib. Late NY hours are printing lower highs under the 1.1341 asian high, with RSI(14) near 36 and the 1.1329 asian low just below.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1341, 1.1360, 1.1380
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1329 asian low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
A reclaim of the 1.1341 asian high breaks the post-16:00 lower-highs sequence
A move back above the 1.1360 lower high negates the lower-highs trendline from the pce high
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the read into Asia
Lower highs under 1.1340, back inside Asian range.
The soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 pce high during NY hours was rejected and fully unwound as USD recovered on the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats. The pce leg lower drove price back into the Asian range at the 1.1332 ny low. Late NY is grinding under a descending lower high at 1.1340 with RSI(14) near 36, and the 1.1329 asian low sits just beneath.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1329, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1352, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1329 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1312 cycle low
Close above the 1.1340 lower high breaks the descending sequence; the 1.1352 breakdown level is the next reference
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could shift October hike pricing and this read
Lower highs since post-PCE spike; tight range above Asian low.
The soft-PCE spike to 1.1380 briefly took out the London high, then reversed fully as the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats lifted USD. A string of lower highs drove price down to the 1.1332 NY low at 16:00 UTC. Since London close, price has compressed in a roughly 6-pip band under the 1.1340 range top, just above the 1.1329 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1329, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1346, 1.1363
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1329 asian low exposes the 1.1312 cycle low
Close above the 1.1340 range top and the 1.1346 breakdown level breaks the lower-highs trendline; the fib 38.2% at 1.1350 and the 1.1363 london high sit above
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the read into the Asia session
Lower highs from PCE spike; tight box back inside Asian range.
The soft-PCE spike to the pce high at 1.1380 (12:30 UTC) broke above the london high at 1.1363, then fully unwound as ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid, printing a series of lower highs into the ny low at 1.1332. Late in the NY session, price is compressing in a 5-pip box at 1.1335–1.1340, back inside the Asian range and near the 78.6% fib of the asian low-to-pce high leg, below both EMAs with ATR(14) contracting to around 6 pips.
Support: 1.13322, 1.13286
Resistance: 1.13424, 1.13634, 1.13797
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1329 asian low confirms a lower low and puts the 1.1312 cycle low in focus
Reclaim of the 1.1342 asian high reopens the lower-highs trendline near 1.1360 and the london high
Fed Cook 19:25 UTC, Goolsbee 20:05 and Kashkari 22:00 UTC tonight could break the late-NY compression
17:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed spike, now basing · RSI 35 · price 1.1339
Lower highs since PCE spike; London gains erased, price back inside Asian range.
The soft PCE print spiked EURUSD through the London high to 1.1380 during the first hour of NY. The pce high was rejected at once as strong US activity data restored the dollar bid, and lower highs followed into a slide to the ny low at 1.1332, erasing London's gains. Price is now compressing in a 5-pip band just above the Asia low. RSI(14) has lifted off sub-30 and ATR is contracting.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1329, 1.1314
Resistance: 1.1345, 1.1363, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1345 breakdown level would neutralise the NY lower-high sequence and bring the 38.2% of the PCE spike fib (~1.1350) into play
Failure to hold the ny low at 1.1332 and the asia low at 1.1329 exposes the 1.1314 cycle low
Reclaim of the london high at 1.1363 would retrace the full NY selloff toward the pce high
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could break the current compression
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY spike, stalling · RSI 36 · price 1.13393
Lower highs from 1.1380; tight base 1.1335–1.1340 above asian low.
The soft PCE print spiked price above the 1.1363 london high to a 1.1380 pce high, then ADP/GDP/Chicago PMI beats reversed it through a chain of lower highs and a breakdown below 1.1345 into a 1.1332 ny low. Late NY, after London close, price is basing at 1.1335–1.1340, back inside the Asian range and just above the 1.1329 asian low. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is about 7.5 pips.
Support: 1.13322, 1.13286
Resistance: 1.13454, 1.13634, 1.13797
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1329 asian low extends the lower-low sequence from the pce high
Recovery above the 1.1345 breakdown level, near the 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib, puts the 1.1363 london high back in play
A break of the lower highs trendline would neutralise the post-PCE rejection read
Fed Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05 and Kashkari 22:00 UTC could shift USD after the PCE miss
17:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the 1.1380 pce high · RSI 33 · price 1.13375
Lower highs since the PCE spike, late-NY drop back inside the Asian range.
London broke above the Asian range, and the soft core PCE print spiked price to the 1.1380 pce high. Strong US activity data faded that spike, and a late-NY, month-end drop took price to the 1.1332 ny low, back under the 1.1344 asian high. RSI(14) sits near 33 with price below both EMAs. The asian low at 1.1329 and the tuesday low at 1.1313 are the floors beneath.
Support: 1.13322, 1.13286, 1.13126
Resistance: 1.13437, 1.13602, 1.13797
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1344 asian high reinstates the London range break; holding below keeps the false break in play
Close above the 1.1360 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline from the pce high; the 38.2% fib near 1.1350 is the first test
Failure to hold the 1.1332 ny low and 1.1329 asian low exposes the 1.1313 tuesday low
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could shift USD pricing and this read
Lower highs from 1.1380 session high; breakdown back to Asian range top.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked EURUSD to a 1.1380 pce high, but the pop was fully reversed as the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. That left a lower high at 1.1360 into NY hours, and the 16:00 UTC drop cut through the 1.1342 breakdown level to a 1.1332 day low. RSI(14) sits near 31, price is back at the top of the Asian range with the 38.2% retrace of the PCE drop fib near 1.1350.
Support: 1.13322, 1.13286, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13421, 1.13602, 1.13797
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1329 asian low exposes the 1.1312 swing low
M15 close back above the 1.1342 breakdown level reopens the 1.1350 fib zone
A close above the 1.1360 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1380, London low broken, back inside Asian range.
The 12:30 UTC spike to 1.1380 on the soft PCE was rejected as the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. NY hours then printed a chain of lower highs, and the 15:00–15:30 UTC slide broke the london low at 1.1342 to a session low at 1.1332, erasing London's gains with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1342, 1.1351, 1.1360
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the london low at 1.1342 stalls the lower-low sequence and lifts price out of the Asian range
Failure to hold the session low at 1.1332 and the asian low at 1.1329 exposes the prior low at 1.1311
38.2–61.8% of the NY decline (1.1350–1.1361) overlaps the breakdown at 1.1351 and the 1.1360 lower high; this is the area to watch for rejection or break
Schnabel speaking at 15:45 UTC (current bar) and Fed's Cook at 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.1380 spike high, range 1.1345–1.1365 in NY.
The soft US PCE print spiked EUR/USD to a 1.1380 PCE high at 12:30 UTC, but the move was rejected within the bar. NY has since printed lower highs near 1.1360 inside a 1.1345–1.1365 range, and price now sits near the range floor between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 1.1329 Asia low to 1.1380 advance, testing EMA50 into the London close.
Support: 1.1345, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1360, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1345 NY low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 1.1342 London low, then the 1.1329 Asia low
A break of the descending line through the lower highs at 1.1360 reopens the 1.1380 PCE high
Schnabel speaking now (15:45 UTC), then Fed's Cook 19:25 and Goolsbee 20:05 UTC, could break the NY range
Post-PCE spike rejected; chop between 1.1345 and 1.1363.
Higher lows off the 1.1329 Asian low carried price to a 1.1380 pce spike high on the soft US PCE print. That spike was fully rejected back to a 1.1345 swing low near the 61.8% of the pce leg fib, and price now chops at 1.1359 just under the 1.1363 pre-PCE high, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 around London close.
Support: 1.13454, 1.13286
Resistance: 1.13634, 1.13797, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1363 pre-PCE high reopens the 1.1380 pce spike high, with the 1.1400 round number beyond
Loss of the 1.1345 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1329 Asian low
ECB's Schnabel at 15:45 UTC and Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-PCE spike rejected; lower highs inside 1.1345–1.1365 NY range.
London cleared the Asian range and ran to the 1.1363 London high. The soft US PCE at 12:30 UTC spiked price to 1.1380, and the spike was fully rejected. NY has since printed lower highs inside 1.1345–1.1365, with the 1.1345 NY low holding just under the 61.8% fib of the Asian-low-to-spike rally.
Support: 1.1345, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1380
What it said to watch
Schnabel at 15:45 UTC could break the 1.1345–1.1365 NY range
M15 close below the 1.1345 NY low exposes the 1.1329 Asian low
Close above the 1.1363 London high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.1380 PCE spike high
Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC could shift the read late in NY
Higher lows from asian low; post-pce range 1.1345–1.1363.
Price broke above the Asian range after 06:00 UTC. London built higher lows up to the 1.1363 london high. The soft core PCE print spiked price to the 1.1380 pce high, but that move was rejected and fully retraced. In NY, price swept to the 1.1345 ny low and closed back near the 38.2% fib of the 1.1329–1.1380 leg, with EMA20 flat just underneath.
Support: 1.13454, 1.13286, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13634, 1.13797, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Schnabel at 15:45 UTC: flagging upside inflation risk after the CPI beats could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.1363 london high reopens the 1.1380 pce high and the 1.1400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1345 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1329 asian low, then the 1.1311 prior low
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) are event risk for USD after the PCE miss
Soft US core PCE at 12:30 UTC spiked EURUSD to the 1.1380 pce high, but the move was fully rejected. Price is back in the 1.1350–1.1363 London range, trading near the 50% fib of the 1.1329–1.1380 move. Rising lows from the 1.1342 london low and the 1.1348 swing low are intact, with the NY session low at 1.1351 holding so far.
Support: 1.1351, 1.1348, 1.1342
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1348 swing low (61.8% fib) breaks the rising lows trendline
A close above the 1.1363 prior high reopens the 1.1380 pce high, with the 1.14 psych level beyond
Loss of the 1.1342 london low returns price to the Asia range
ECB Schnabel at 15:45 UTC; a hawkish take on the hot CPI prints could shift this read
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could reprice the post-PCE USD move
Higher lows since Asian range low, lower highs since 12:30 UTC spike.
The soft US core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked price to the 1.1380 PCE high, but the move was fully rejected. Mid-NY session, EURUSD is now compressing just above the 1.1351 NY low, around the 50% retracement of the Asia low–PCE high leg. The lower-high line from the spike is capping, while the higher-low chain from the Asian range (1.1329, 1.1342 London low, 1.1348 swing low) is still intact.
Support: 1.1351, 1.1348, 1.1342
Resistance: 1.1365, 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1348 swing low (61.8% of Asia low–PCE high) breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1342 London low
Close above the lower-high line and 1.1365 lower high reopens the 1.1380 PCE high, with 1.1400 psych above
ECB Schnabel at 15:45 UTC: a hawkish read of the hot German and Italian CPIs could shift this structure
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC add USD event risk late in NY hours
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked EURUSD through the 1.1363 london high to 1.1380, but the NY session gave it all back. Price now sits at 1.1355, on the 1.1353 post-PCE low, the 50% fib of the Asia-to-spike move and the rising trendline. The higher-low chain from the 1.1329 Asian low through 1.1342 and the 1.1348 swing low is intact, and RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1348, 1.1342
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
ECB's Schnabel at 15:45 UTC is the first read on the hot CPI prints and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1348 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1342 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1353 post-PCE low turns the 50% fib test into a deeper retrace
Recovery above the 1.1363 london high reopens the 1.1380 PCE spike high, with 1.14 psych above that
Higher lows from the Asian low intact; PCE spike above London high fully retraced.
Soft core PCE lifted EURUSD through the London high at 1.1363 to a 1.1380 pce spike, but the move was sold and price is back at 1.1354 early in the NY session. That sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian-low rally, on the rising trendline, with the 1.1348 swing low just below and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.13481, 1.13419
Resistance: 1.13634, 1.13797, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1348 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.1342 london low
Reclaim of the 1.1363 london high reopens the 1.1380 pce spike, with 1.1400 psych above
ECB's Schnabel at 15:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the London low; now at the rising trendline and 50% fib.
The soft core PCE miss spiked EURUSD to a 1.1380 pce spike in the first NY bar, but it was rejected and has given back the whole move to 1.1354, below the 1.1363 pre-pce high. Early NY is now retesting the rising trendline and 50% fib of the 1.1329 asian low to 1.1380 move. The higher-low chain from the 1.1342 london low and the 1.1348 swing low (61.8%) is intact.
Support: 1.1348, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1348 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and trendline, exposing the 1.1342 london low
Reclaim of the 1.1363 pre-pce high reopens the 1.1380 pce spike and 1.1400 psych
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC bar) and ECB's Schnabel at 15:45 UTC could shift this read
Month-end flows may distort NY-session price action
Higher-low chain from the 1.1329 Asia low; PCE spike high rejected, tight consolidation above.
EUR/USD cleared the Asian high at 1.1344 before London, amid month-end USD softness, and has held higher lows since, respecting the rising trendline. The soft core PCE print spiked price to the 1.1380 pce high at 12:30 UTC, but that bar was rejected within 15 minutes. Early NY is consolidating 1.1358–1.1367 with RSI(14) neutral near 55, holding around the 38.2% of the PCE leg fib.
Support: 1.13578, 1.13481, 1.13437
Resistance: 1.13797, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1358 post-pce low exposes the 1.1348 swing low and the rising trendline
M15 break below the 1.1348 swing low ends the higher-low chain; the asian high at 1.1344 is the next reference
Close back above the 1.1380 pce high negates the spike rejection and opens the 1.14 pivot
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) and ECB's Schnabel at 15:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the Asian range; post-PCE spike rejected back to the London high.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.1342 and built higher lows. The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked the pair to 1.1380, but the move was fully rejected within two bars back to the 1.1363 London high, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s. In the first hour of NY price is holding above the 1.1358 swing low, while the pre-PCE low at 1.1348 lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the asia-pce leg and the rising lows trendline.
Support: 1.13578, 1.13481, 1.13424
Resistance: 1.13797, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1358 swing low exposes the 1.1348 pre-PCE low / 61.8% fib confluence
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.1342 Asian high would undo the intraday higher-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.1380 PCE high reopens the 1.1400 psych level
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and ECB's Schnabel at 15:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; retest of prior high after spike rejection.
Price broke above the 1.1329–1.1342 Asian range, topped by the asian high, just before London and has held a higher-lows chain since. The soft core PCE print spiked it to the 1.1380 pce high, but the next bar gave nearly all of it back, and price is now retesting the 1.1363 prior high from the London session. The 1.1348 swing low coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the Asia-to-PCE leg.
Support: 1.13634, 1.13481, 1.13424
Resistance: 1.13797, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1348 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain
Loss of the 1.1363 prior high turns the PCE spike into a failed breakout
Reclaim of the 1.1380 pce high puts the 1.14 psych level back in view
Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC and Schnabel 15:45 UTC could extend the post-PCE swing
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari after NY close are a late-session risk
13:01 UTC
Uptrend since Asian low, momentum stalled after spike · RSI 58 · price 1.13652
Higher lows from 1.1329; PCE spike above London high fully retraced.
Higher lows have held since the Asian low at 1.1329, helped by month-end USD softness after Williams' dovish tilt. The 12:30 UTC PCE release spiked price to 1.1380 but the move met rejection and fully retraced. Early NY trade is now sitting on the London prior high at 1.1363, with the 1.1348 swing low (61.8% fib) the next shelf below.
Support: 1.1363, 1.1348, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1363 prior high turns the PCE spike into a false break and exposes the 1.1348 swing low
Failure to hold 1.1348 breaks the higher-low chain back toward the Asian low at 1.1329
M15 close above the 1.1380 PCE spike high opens the path to 1.1400 psych
ECB's Schnabel at 15:45 UTC could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive post-PCE leg · RSI 69 · price 1.13748
Higher lows since Asian low, London high broken on PCE spike.
Higher lows have held since the 1.1329 Asian low, with the 1.1348 swing low late in London the latest. The 12:30 UTC PCE release drove a ~20-pip spike through the 1.1363 London high to the 1.1380 PCE high, reversing yesterday's selloff. RSI(14) is near 69 and not yet stretched, with the 1.14 round number overhead.
Support: 1.13634, 1.13481, 1.13286
Resistance: 1.13797, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1363 London high marks the PCE breakout as a false break
Break of the 1.1348 swing low undercuts the higher-low line and the intraday uptrend read
Acceptance above the 1.1380 PCE high brings the 1.14 round number into play
Schnabel at 15:45 UTC could shift the read after the eurozone CPI beats
Holding above the 1.1329 Asian low keeps the 61.8% retracement zone as the deeper pullback reference
12:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs and higher lows since Asia · RSI 67 · price 1.13722
HH/HL chain off the 1.1329 Asian low; London high 1.1363 broken on the PCE bar.
EURUSD cleared the Asian range early London and kept printing higher lows at 1.1342 (london low) and 1.1348 (higher low) through the German HICP and ADP releases. The 12:30 GMT PCE bar broke the 1.1363 london high and spiked to a 1.1374 pce high, the widest bar in the window at nearly 2.5x ATR. RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.1363, 1.1348, 1.1342
Resistance: 1.1374, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1363 london high marks the PCE spike as a false break
Loss of the 1.1348 higher low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain and the trendline
1.1400 round number is the widely cited 1.14 pivot; rejection or acceptance there defines the next leg
ECB Schnabel at 15:45 GMT could shift the EUR side of the read
Higher lows off the Asian low; lower highs under 1.1363 since mid-London.
EURUSD broke out of the Asian range before London as hot French CPI hit, and ran from the 1.1329 asian low to a 1.1363 session high. Since then it has printed lower highs. The late-London dip to the 1.1348 swing low held at the rising trendline and the 38.2% fib, leaving price just under EMA20 and range-bound into US data.
Support: 1.1348, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1400
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) are due within the hour and could materially shift this read
A close below the 1.1348 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1342 london low at the 61.8% fib
Losing the london low would put the 1.1329 asian low back in focus
A close above the 1.1363 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1400 round number
ECB Schnabel at 15:45 GMT is a secondary risk for EUR later in the NY session
Asian range breakout, lower highs off session high, higher-low chain broken.
EUR/USD broke out of the 1.1329–1.1342 Asian range at 06:00 UTC and extended to a 1.1363 session high by mid-London, helped by a softer USD and the hot France/Italy CPI prints. Since then it has printed lower highs, and the 11:45 UTC dip to the 1.1348 swing low broke the rising line off the london low. Price now sits at the 38.2% fib, right as German HICP lands, with ADP and PCE inside 30 minutes.
Support: 1.1348, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1400
What it said to watch
German flash HICP (12:00 UTC), ADP (12:15) and core PCE (12:30) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1348 swing low confirms a lower-low below the broken rising line
M15 close below the 1.1342 london low (61.8% fib, Asian range top) returns focus to the 1.1329 asian low
M15 close above the 1.1363 session high opens the path to the 1.1400 round number
11:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 56 · price 1.13563
Asian range broken higher; London higher low at 1.1342, now a tight box below 1.1363.
EURUSD broke above the 1.1329–1.1344 Asian range around London open as the hot 06:45 CPI print lifted the euro, then set a higher low at the 1.1342 london low (61.8% of the asian low–session high fib) before printing a 1.1363 session high at 10:00 UTC. Price has since compressed into a 10-pip box between the 1.1353 micro low and the session high, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR(14) around 5 pips ahead of the data cluster.
Support: 1.13533, 1.13419, 1.13286
Resistance: 1.13634, 1.1400
What it said to watch
12:00 UTC HICP flash (f/c 3.1%), then ADP at 12:15 and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, all due within the hour and likely to resolve the 1.1353–1.1363 compression
M15 close above the 1.1363 session high opens the path to the 1.1400 round number, the reclaim level cited in the macro digest
Loss of the 1.1353 micro low exposes the 1.1342 london low at the 61.8% fib
Break below the 1.1342 london low undoes the London higher-low sequence and puts the 1.1329 asian low back in play
Higher lows off Asian low, tight range below session high.
EUR climbed off the 1.1329 Asian low through London as hot French and Italian CPI prints and a softer USD lifted the pair. The rally printed a session high at 1.1363 before compressing into a 1.1353–1.1363 range late in London. RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 5.6 pips show momentum cooling ahead of the 12:00 UTC HICP.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1400
What it said to watch
12:00 UTC HICP flash, 12:15 ADP and 12:30 UTC core PCE could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1363 session high opens the path to the 1.1400 round number
Break below the 1.1353 range low exposes the 1.1342 swing low at the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 1.1329 Asian low negates the London advance
Higher lows since Tuesday's 1.1311 low; tight 1.1354–1.1363 band into NY.
London cleared the Asian range and extended the rebound off Tuesday's 1.1311 low to a 1.1363 session high, helped by the hot Italian and French CPI prints. The last hour has stalled in a 1.1354–1.1363 band, with price resting on the rising trendline from the Asian low and RSI(14) cooling to about 59; the London pullback low at 1.1342 lines up with the 38.2% of the rebound fib.
Support: 1.1354, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1400
What it said to watch
12:00 UTC HICP flash (f/c 3.1%), then ADP at 12:15 and core PCE at 12:30 UTC; the ~6-pip ATR understates the likely range
An M15 close below the 1.1354 recent lows breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.1342 pullback low
A close above the 1.1363 session high opens the 1.1400 psych level, where rebounds have been capped
Loss of 1.1342 puts the 1.1329 Asian low back in play
11:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 63 · price 1.13584
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain intact.
EUR/USD broke above the 1.1329–1.1342 Asian range from 05:00 UTC. It retested the Asia high at London open, then posted higher lows up to a 1.1363 session high as the USD correction extended and EUR shrugged off soft German data. Price is holding just under the high along rising support, with RSI(14) near 63 and no stretch, heading into German CPI at 12:00 UTC.
Support: 1.1354, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1400
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1354 higher low and rising support breaks the HH/HL chain.
Failure to hold the 1.1342 Asia high, the 61.8% level of the rally fib, puts price back inside the Asian range and brings the 1.1329 Asia low into view.
A close above the 1.1363 session high opens the path to the 1.1400 round number, which the digest cites as SocGen's line in the sand.
German prelim CPI at 12:00 UTC, then US ADP at 12:15 and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
HH/HL chain from the Asian low, trading above the Asian range.
Price broke above the 1.1329–1.1342 Asian range before London opened, and the 07:45 UTC dip after the German jobs miss held as a retest of the Asian high. London then extended the higher-high chain to a 1.1363 session high at 10:00 UTC before slipping back under yesterday's 1.1358 prior high. Price now sits on the rising trendline from the Asian low with RSI(14) near 54, as USD eases on lower front-end yields ahead of German CPI, ADP and core PCE.
Support: 1.1351, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1358, 1.1363, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1351 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the asian high at 1.1342 (61.8% fib)
Close back above the 1.1363 session high brings 1.1400 psych into view; failure keeps the prior high at 1.1358 capping
Loss of the 1.1329 asian low negates the entire London advance
German prelim CPI 12:00 UTC, then ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC, fall within the next two hours and could materially shift this read
London breakout above Asian range, stepping higher lows under 1.1363.
London cleared the 1.1329–1.1344 Asian range at the open, and hot French and Italian CPI prints supported EUR. Price has since stacked higher lows from 1.1342, with the latest higher low at 1.1354, and printed a session high at 1.1363. RSI(14) is near 64, firm but not stretched, heading into the midday US and German data cluster.
Support: 1.1354, 1.1344, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1363, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1354 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.1344 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.1329 asian low next
M15 close above the 1.1363 session high opens the 1.1400 round number
German HICP 12:00 UTC, ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-high / higher-low chain since the Asian low.
The London rally off the 1.1329 Asian low came on the hot French and Italian CPI prints and has held a higher-low chain from the 1.1342 london low to the 1.1351 swing low. Price is retesting the 1.1360 session high with RSI(14) near 59, while the 1.1400 round number is the next reference above.
Support: 1.13511, 1.13419, 1.13286
Resistance: 1.13602, 1.1400
What it said to watch
German prelim HICP at 12:00 UTC, then US ADP at 12:15 and core PCE at 12:30, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1360 session high extends the London rally toward the 1.1400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1351 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1342 london low
A move back below the rising trendline off the asian low puts 1.1329 back in focus
HH/HL chain since the Asian low; tight consolidation 1.1351–1.1360.
London broke above the Asian range high at 1.1342 on the hot French and Italian CPI prints. The pullback retested it near the 61.8% of the Asia-London rally, then made a higher high at the 1.1360 session high, just over yesterday's prior high at 1.1358. Price is now compressing between 1.1351 and 1.1360, above EMA20, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.1351, 1.13424, 1.13286
Resistance: 1.13578, 1.13602
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1360 session high clears the prior high at 1.1358 and extends the HH/HL chain
Break of the 1.1351 micro low exposes the Asian high retest area at 1.1342 and the rally trendline
Loss of 1.1342 negates the London breakout, with the Asian low at 1.1329 next below
German HICP at 12:00 UTC, then ADP at 12:15 and PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; London pushed above Tuesday's high, now pausing.
EUR broke out of the 1.1329–1.1342 Asian range from 05:45 UTC and held a higher low at the 1.1342 London low despite weak German retail sales and jobs data. The hot Italy CPI at 09:00 UTC coincided with a 1.1360 session high just above the 1.1358 Tue high; price is now holding the 1.1351 pullback low with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.1351, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1358, 1.1360
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1351 pullback low exposes the 1.1342 London low and the higher-lows trendline
A close back below the 1.1342 London low invalidates the higher-lows read and reopens the 1.1329 Asian low
A close above the 1.1360 session high and the 1.1358 Tue high extends the London higher-high sequence
German HICP at 12:00 UTC, then ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 61 · price 1.13528
Asian range break higher; rising lows capped at 1.1360.
Early London broke above the 1.1329–1.1342 Asian range and pushed to a 1.1360 session high, just clearing yesterday's 1.1358 peak. The high was rejected twice, including right after the hot Italy CPI at 09:00 UTC, which fits the digest's read that hot inflation is not lifting EUR. Rising lows from the asian low through the 1.1342 swing low are still intact; RSI(14) is around 61 and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1342, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1360, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1360 session high extends the leg and opens the 1.1400 psych area
Break of the 1.1342 swing low breaks the rising lows and turns the structure back into range
Loss of the 1.1329 asian low puts the 16m low at 1.1311 back in focus
German HICP 12:00 UTC, then US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 67 · price 1.13567
Asian range broken higher, HL at 1.1342, testing prior high.
London broke the 1.1329–1.1342 Asian range higher on the hot German state CPIs and the 3.4% national print. The 1.13419 london low retested the old range top, and price has since tagged a 1.13602 session high around yesterday's 1.13578 prior high. RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.13419, 1.13286
Resistance: 1.13578, 1.13602
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.13419 london low returns price to the Asian range and negates the breakout read
Holding above the 1.13578 prior high and 1.13602 session high extends the higher-high sequence from the asian low
EU-norm CPI at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.8%), German HICP at 12:00 UTC (f/c 3.1%), then US ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, retest held, HL at 1.1342.
EUR lifted off the 1.1329 asian low before London on hot German state CPIs and the 3.4% national CPI beat, breaking the Asian range at 1.1344. The retest held at the 1.1342 london low, near the 50–61.8% fib, and price is back under the 1.1357 session high, which also caps at yesterday's high.
Support: 1.1342, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1357, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1357 session high clears the double cap and opens the 1.1400 round number
Break below the 1.1342 london low and rising trendline puts price back inside the Asian range toward 1.1329
Loss of 1.1329 exposes the 1.1311 prior low from yesterday's NY session
German HICP at 12:00 UTC, then ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range break higher, first pullback holding above breakout.
EUR/USD broke above the 1.1329–1.1342 Asian range into London open as USD eased on Williams' comments. It stalled at a 1.1357 session high, just shy of yesterday's 1.1358 prior high. The first London pullback held 1.1342, the old Asian high and roughly the 50% fib of the move, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 1.1342, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1350, 1.1357, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1342 asian high negates the breakout-retest read and exposes the 1.1329 asian low
1.1350 psych capping the current bounce; acceptance above the 1.1357 session high clears the 1.1358 prior high
Loss of 1.1329 reopens yesterday's 1.1311 swing low
German prelim HICP at 12:00 UTC, then ADP at 12:15 and US PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher at London open, double rejection at 1.1357, pullback holding the Asian high.
EUR broke out of the 1.1329–1.1342 Asian range into the London open after the hot French CPI print. Price then stalled twice at 1.1356–1.1357, just under yesterday's 1.1358 prior high. The pullback to 1.1342 retested the Asian high near the 50% fib of the breakout leg, with rising support intact and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.1342, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1357
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1357 prior high clears the double rejection
M15 close below 1.1342 asian high breaks rising support and puts price back inside the Asian range
Loss of the 1.1329 asian low exposes the 1.1325 June low area and yesterday's 1.1311 swing low
09:00 UTC EU-norm CPI, 12:00 UTC German HICP (f/c 3.1%) and 12:15–12:30 UTC US ADP/PCE could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, rally capped at 1.1357, pullback into fib 38.2.
The European open lifted price out of the Asian range, from the 1.1329 Asian low through the 1.1342 Asian high to 1.1357. Supply capped two tests at yesterday's prior high there, and the 07:30 UTC bar slid 8 pips back to the fib 38.2 at 1.1345, with RSI(14) cooling to 55. The mixed EUR data this morning (French CPI beat, German retail miss) has not produced a follow-through leg.
Support: 1.1345, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1357
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1357 prior high clears the double cap from yesterday and this morning
Failure to hold 1.1342 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.1329 asian low next
German prelim HICP at 12:00 UTC, then US ADP at 12:15 and PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range breakout, higher lows coiling under 1.1358.
Early-Europe demand lifted EUR/USD out of the 1.1329–1.1344 Asian range after the hot French CPI print, but the move has stalled twice at 1.1356–1.1357, just under yesterday's prior high at 1.1358. The pullback low at 1.1346 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asian low-to-high leg. RSI(14) near 74 is hot, not extreme.
Support: 1.1346, 1.1344, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1358 prior high extends the London breakout structure
Loss of the 1.1346 pullback low and the 1.1344 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Return below the 1.1329 asian low fully unwinds the London move
German unemployment at 07:55 UTC and Italy CPI at 09:00 UTC are near-term catalysts
German HICP at 12:00 UTC, then ADP and US PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, stalling at prior high · RSI 66 · price 1.1353
Asian range broken higher; higher low held above range top.
EUR/USD broke above the 1.1329–1.1344 Asian range in early European trade after the hot French CPI, then stalled at 1.1357, just under yesterday's prior high. The 1.1346 pullback low held at the 38.2% fib of the rally from the Asian low; RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR(14) is near 5 pips.
Support: 1.1346, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1357
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1357 prior high extends the break beyond yesterday's high
Loss of the 1.1346 pullback low and the rally trendline puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the 1.1329 Asian low reopens the 1.1311 day low
German prelim CPI/HICP at 12:00 UTC, then ADP and US PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the Asian low, momentum cooling · RSI 64 · price 1.13495
Asian range broken higher; higher low at 1.1346 below the session high.
The pre-London push broke the Asian range, clearing the 1.1342 asian high, as the muted reaction to the German retail sales miss turned into a firmer EUR bid. The move stalled at a 1.1357 session high, just under the 1.1359 prior high. The pullback held the 38.2% fib as a higher low at 1.1346, with RSI(14) cooling to about 64.
Support: 1.1346, 1.1342, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1357, 1.1359
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1342 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 1.1329 asian low.
A close above the 1.1359 prior high clears yesterday's London high; repeated rejection at the 1.1357 session high keeps the move capped.
Loss of the 1.1346 higher low breaks the rising lows trendline off the Asian low.
German unemployment at 07:55 UTC and CPI at 09:00 UTC, then HICP at 12:00, ADP at 12:15 and US PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
07:01 UTC
Intraday bounce, stalling at prior high · RSI 63 · price 1.1351
Asian range broken higher, higher low at 1.1346 held.
Pre-London rally off the 1.1329 Asian low cleared the 1.1344 Asian high and stalled at 1.1357, matching yesterday's prior high. The 06:30 dip held above the Asian high, and EUR firmed despite the German retail sales miss. RSI(14) is cooling from the mid-60s, with ATR near 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.1344, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1357, 1.1362
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1357 prior high exposes the 1.1362 24h high
Loss of the 1.1344 Asian high puts the breakout back inside the range, toward the 1.1329 Asian low
German unemployment at 07:55 UTC and CPI at 09:00 UTC during London hours could extend or reverse the move
12:00 UTC HICP and 12:15 ADP / 12:30 US PCE carry the largest event risk; 1.1311 NY low is the downside reference
06:46 UTC
Intraday bounce, stalling at prior high · RSI 65 · price 1.13519
Break above Asian range, first pause at 1.1357.
London open lifted EURUSD out of the 1.1329–1.1343 Asian range, a ~28-pip leg that brushed aside the German retail sales miss. The move stalled just under the 1.1357 prior high with RSI(14) near 65, and the Asian high at 1.1343 is the first shelf below.
Support: 1.1343, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1357, 1.1365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1357 prior high opens the 1.1365 24h high
A slip back below the 1.1343 asian high returns price to the range and exposes the 1.1329 asian low
Loss of the 1.1329 asian low reopens the 1.1311 prior low
06:45 UTC CPI and 07:55 UTC German jobs data could extend or fade the London open leg
12:00 UTC HICP, then 12:15 UTC ADP and 12:30 UTC core PCE, could reset the session range
06:31 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the lows, momentum firm · RSI 66 · price 1.1350
Higher low at 1.1329 above the 1.1311 swing low, Asian range broken to the upside.
Early London broke the 1.1329–1.1343 Asian range to the upside and reached 1.1353 around the German Retail Sales slot, leaving a higher low above yesterday's 1.1311 swing low. RSI(14) is near 66, not stretched, and price is pressing toward yesterday's prior high at 1.1358, with the USD still firm on Fed hike pricing.
Support: 1.1343, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1358, 1.1365
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1343 asian high would turn the range break into a false break
Close above the 1.1358 prior high opens yesterday's 1.1365 london high
Loss of the 1.1329 asian low breaks the higher low and re-exposes the 1.1311 swing low
German regional CPI at 06:45/09:00 UTC and national CPI at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC carry high event risk for the pair
Asia held a 1.1329–1.1342 range after the NY-hours slide to the 1.1311 prior low. The final pre-London bar pushed through the Asian high to a 1.1346 session high, above the 61.8% fib of the 1.1358 swing high to 1.1311 drop. RSI(14) ~60, ATR(14) ~3.4 pips, a quiet tape ahead of German CPI and US PCE.
Support: 1.1342, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1346, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1342 Asian high turns the push into a false break
Close above the 1.1346 session high exposes the 1.1358 swing high and a full retrace of the drop fib
Loss of the 1.1329 Asian low reopens the 1.1311 prior low
German state CPIs from 06:45 UTC and German CPI 12:00 UTC (f/c 0.5% MoM) could reprice October ECB hike odds
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
After yesterday's flush to the 1.1311 NY low, EURUSD rebounded and has held a tight 1.1329–1.1344 box through Asia. A late-Asia dip to the 1.1329 Asian low met demand near the 50% retrace of the NY low rebound, and price is back mid-range near 1.1338 into the London open, with the USD still firm on Fed-hike bets.
Support: 1.1333, 1.1329, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 Asian high breaks the overnight range and puts the 1.1358 prior high in view
Loss of the 1.1333 range floor and the 1.1329 Asian low reopens the 1.1311 NY low
Regional German CPI prints (06:45 and 09:00 UTC) could break the range early in London
German CPI at 12:00 UTC, followed by US ADP and PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
15-pip Asian range 1.1329–1.1344 above yesterday's NY low; late-Asia dip reclaimed.
Ahead of the London open, EUR/USD is boxed between the 1.1329 asian low and 1.1344 asian high after rebounding from yesterday's 1.1311 ny low. A late-Asia dip below the overnight floor was reclaimed, and price sits on ema20 just above the 1.1325 june low as Fed hike bets keep USD firm. RSI(14) is neutral at 47.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 asian high breaks the range and opens the 1.1358 london high
Failure to hold the 1.1329 asian low exposes the 1.1325 june low, then the 1.1311 ny low
The asian low held between 38.2% and 50% of the ny rebound fib; a break of the 61.8% near 1.1324 negates the rebound
German Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and regional CPIs from 06:45 UTC land into the London open
German CPI at 12:00 UTC and US PCE at 12:30 UTC are the main catalysts for a range break
Broke below the Asian range, now retesting the breakdown.
Late Asia: price slipped out of the 1.1334–1.1342 Asian range at 04:00 UTC and printed a session low at 1.1329. It is now back at the broken range floor, recovering about a third of the drop on the Asian drop fib, with ATR near 3 pips before London. Yesterday's NY spike to the 1.1311 swing low reversed quickly, but EUR stays pinned near YTD lows on Fed-ECB policy divergence.
Support: 1.13286, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.1334, 1.13424, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1334 range floor, then the 1.1342 asian high, would negate the late-Asia break
Rejection at the range floor and a break of the 1.1329 session low exposes the 1.1311 swing low
A recovery through the 1.1358 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
German Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and regional CPIs from 06:45 UTC land around London open and could shift this read
German CPI at 12:00 UTC, then ADP and US Core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC, are the main volatility risk into the NY session
05:16 UTC
Intraday down, drifting lower into London open · RSI 36 · price 1.13319
Asian range 1.1333–1.1344 broken lower; lower highs since 02:45 UTC.
Late Asia slipped through the 1.1333 range floor of the overnight 1.1333–1.1344 box. It printed a 1.1329 session low and is now retesting the floor from below, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.1311–1.1344 bounce. RSI(14) sits near 36 with ATR a tight 3.3 pips pre-London, as broad USD strength on Fed hike bets keeps the pair heavy; below are the 61.8% fib at 1.1324 and yesterday's 1.1311 ny low, while the 1.1344 asian high caps.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1333, 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1333 range floor negates the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 1.1329 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1324 and the 1.1311 ny low
Reclaim of the 1.1344 asian high opens yesterday's 1.1358 london high
German Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and prelim CPI (12:00 UTC), then US ADP (12:15) and core PCE (12:30), could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Drifting lower, below Asian range · RSI 32 · price 1.1330
Asian range 1.1334–1.1342 broken lower at 03:30 UTC; lower highs since 1.1342.
EURUSD slipped out of its 1.1334–1.1342 Asian range at 03:30 UTC and sits at 1.1330 late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR only ~3 pips as the USD stays firm on hawkish Fed pricing. The 50% retracement of the NY rebound off the 1.1311 NY low lines up with the 1.1327 swing low, the next layer below.
Support: 1.1327, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1334, 1.1342
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1327 swing low (50% fib) exposes the 1.1311 NY low and the 1.1300 round number
An M15 close back above the 1.1334 Asian low returns price to the range, with the 1.1342 Asian high capping above
German Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC ahead of London open, then German prelim CPI 12:00 and US ADP/PCE 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in late Asia, lower highs since 1.1344.
Late Asia session: EUR/USD slipped below the 1.1333 Asian low in the last hour and printed session lows near 1.1330. The USD bid on hawkish Fed pricing is still in control. The next reference is the 1.1327 swing low, near the 50% fib of the 1.1311–1.1344 rebound, with RSI(14) near 38 and not stretched.
Support: 1.1327, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1333, 1.1344
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1333 Asian low negates the range break.
A close above the 1.1344 Asian high and the descending highs trendline shifts the read to range recovery.
Failure to hold the 1.1327 swing low exposes the 1.1311 day low and the 1.1300 round number.
German Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and German unemployment (07:55 UTC) land around London open.
German CPI (12:00 UTC), ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read.
Late-Asia break below the 1.1333–1.1342 Asian range; lower highs since 1.1344.
Late Asia session slipped out of the 1.1333–1.1342 Asian range to 1.1331, sitting on the 38.2% retrace of yesterday's rebound from the 1.1311 NY low, with broad USD strength keeping the pair heavy. RSI(14) near 38 and ATR ~3.6 pips point to a thin, grinding tape ahead of London open, with yesterday's 1.1327 swing low the next reference.
Support: 1.1327, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1333, 1.1342
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1333 asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.1327 swing low (near the 50% retrace) exposes the 1.1311 ny low and the 1.1300 round number
German Retail Sales 06:00 UTC and Eurozone CPI prints through 09:00 UTC could reset the Asian range read
US ADP 12:15 and PCE 12:30 UTC are the larger volatility risk later in the day
04:16 UTC
Range, drifting lower late Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.13325
Marginal break below Asian range low, lower highs inside range.
Late in the Asia session, price has slipped just below the 1.1333 Asian low to 1.1332. That puts it on the 38.2 fib of yesterday's NY rebound from the 1.1311 spike low, with the range top at 1.1342 capping twice. EUR stays heavy on broad USD strength and Lagarde's pushback on October hikes. RSI(14) sits near 40 and ATR is under 4 pips.
Support: 1.1331, 1.1327, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13334, 1.13424
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1333 asian low puts price back inside the 1.1333–1.1342 range
Failure to hold the 1.1327 swing low exposes the 1.1311 spike low and the 50% fib near 1.1327
Close above the 1.1342 asian high / range top invalidates the downside break
German Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and CPI prints into London open could materially shift this read
US ADP and PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC are the larger volatility risk later in the day
04:01 UTC
Sideways after NY selloff, momentum soft · RSI 42 · price 1.13335
Tight Asian range 1.1333–1.1343, lower highs, testing range floor.
After the rebound from the 1.1311 ny low, EURUSD compressed into a 9-pip Asian range as Lagarde's pushback on October hikes and firm USD yields kept a lid on the euro. Late Asia is pressing the asian low at 1.1333 on lower highs off the 1.1343 asian high, with RSI(14) at 42 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1333, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358
What it said to watch
Break of the asian low at 1.1333 exposes the 1.1325 swing low, then the 1.1311 ny low
Close above the asian high at 1.1343 and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 1.1358 london high
German Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and CPI (09:00 UTC) land into London open and can break the range
ADP and PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend pausing, flat in Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.13385
Lower highs intact, tight Asian range 1.1333–1.1343.
NY hours flushed to a 1.1311 day low, a false break below the 1.1324 ytd low, before a sharp recovery into a 10-pip Asian range between the 1.1333 range low and the 1.1343 range high. The range high sits at the 61.8% level of the NY leg fib. RSI(14) near 47 and a roughly 3.6-pip ATR show a compressed tape as broad USD strength meets the EUR data slate.
Support: 1.1333, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1343 range high and 61.8% fib opens the 1.1358 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.1333 range low puts the 1.1324 ytd low and 1.1311 day low back in play
German Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and regional CPI into London open could materially shift this read
US ADP and PCE (12:15–12:30 UTC) are the larger volatility risk later in the day
03:16 UTC
Sideways after a NY-session flush and reclaim · RSI 50 · price 1.13396
Tight range 1.1333–1.1344 since the 1.1311 false break.
The NY-hours drop through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 swing low was reclaimed fast. Price has since held a 1.1333–1.1344 range near the 61.8% retrace of the prior high to swing low leg, with RSI(14) flat at 50 late in the Asia session. EUR stays heavy on broad USD strength, with the Asian range intact ahead of London.
Support: 1.13334, 1.1324, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13437, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1333 asian low puts the 1.1324 ytd low and 1.1311 swing low back in play
Close above the 1.1344 range high opens the 1.1358 prior high
German Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and CPI YoY (09:00 UTC) could break the range
US ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Flat, compressing after NY rebound · RSI 46 · price 1.1338
Tight Asian range 1.1333–1.1344 between 1.1311 swing low and 1.1358 London high.
NY hours broke below 1.1327 to a 1.1311 swing low, then reversed sharply in a false break. Since then the pair has held a 3-pip-ATR Asian range of 1.1333–1.1344, parked between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the London high-to-NY low drop. RSI(14) sits at 46 as EUR stays heavy on broad USD strength ahead of today's data.
Support: 1.1333, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1333 asian low puts the 1.1311 swing low back in play
Break above the 1.1344 asian high and the 61.8% fib shifts focus to the 1.1358 london high
German Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and Eurozone CPI releases through 12:00 UTC could break the Asian range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE at 12:30 UTC are the larger volatility risk later today
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in a tight range after a sharp bounce · RSI 48 · price 1.13375
8-hour range 1.1333–1.1344 after an NY-hours flush to 1.1311 reversed.
The USD-driven slide ran to a 1.1311 day low during NY hours and reversed hard at 18:00 UTC. Since then price has been boxed between the 1.1333 range low and 1.1344 range high through the Asia session, straddling the 50–61.8% fib retrace of the 1.1358 swing high to day-low drop. RSI(14) near 48, ATR about 3 pips and price sitting on the flattening EMAs all point to compression ahead of the EUR data.
Support: 1.13334, 1.1327, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13401, 1.13437, 1.13578
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1333 range low reopens the 1.1327 swing low, then the 1.1311 day low
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 1.1340 and the 1.1344 range high exposes the 1.1358 swing high
German Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and CPI at 06:45/09:00 UTC could break the Asian compression
US ADP and PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC are the next major volatility risk for the range
Tight 11-pip asian range after late-NY rebound from 1.1311 day low.
Tuesday's USD-led slide briefly broke the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 day low before a sharp late-NY recovery reclaimed it. The bounce stalled near 68% of the london high–day low fib, and price is now pressing the 1.1333 asian low inside an 11-pip Asian range. RSI(14) is 42 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1333, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1333 asian low exposes a retest of the 1.1324 ytd low
Acceptance back under the 1.1324 ytd low turns yesterday's false break into a break, with the 1.1311 day low next
M15 close above the 1.1344 asian high reopens the 1.1358 london high
German Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and Eurozone CPI prints from 06:45 to 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight 1.1334–1.1344 range after NY flush reclaimed.
Late NY hours saw a false break below the 1.1325 ytd low to a 1.1311 session low. Price snapped back at 18:00 UTC on the US-Iran deal headlines. The rebound stalled at the 61.8% fib near 1.1340, and price has held a 1.1334–1.1344 range through Asia with RSI(14) flat near 48 and ATR(14) compressed to ~3 pips.
Support: 1.1335, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1335 range low reopens the 1.1325 ytd low and the 1.1311 session low
Close above the 1.1344 range top targets the 1.1358 swing high, the origin of the NY sell-off
ECB Elderson at 02:20 UTC and German retail sales at 06:00 UTC are the first catalysts to break the Asian range
German CPI prints at 06:45/09:00 UTC and US ADP/core PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend paused, flat in Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.13406
Tight Asian range 1.1335–1.1344 after a false break below the YTD low.
Monday's slide on Lagarde's pushback against an October hike and a firm USD dipped to a day low at 1.1311, briefly below the 1.1324 YTD low, then reversed hard back above it. Asia is holding a 9-pip range between the asia low at 1.1335 and the asia high at 1.1344, sitting at the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1358 swing high to 1.1311 drop, with RSI flat near 49.
Support: 1.1335, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 asia high puts the 1.1358 swing high back in view
Loss of the 1.1335 asia low reopens the 1.1324 ytd low; a close back below it undoes the false break
ECB Elderson at 02:20 UTC, then German Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and German CPI at 06:45 and 09:00 UTC, could break the Asian range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC are the larger USD-side risk later in the day
Range 1.1334–1.1343 after V-rebound from 1.1311 swing low; Asia pressing range low.
The late-NY spike off the 1.1311 swing low reversed a false break of the 1.1325 ytd low zone, and price has since held a tight 1.1334–1.1343 range at the 50–61.8% fib of the drop from the 1.1358 swing high. Asia session is pressing the range low with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR ~3 pips, as Lagarde's pushback on an October hike and a firm USD keep EUR heavy.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1334 range low puts the 1.1325 ytd low zone and the 1.1311 swing low back in play
M15 close above the 1.1343 range top opens the 1.1358 swing high
ECB Elderson at 02:20 UTC, then German Retail Sales (06:00) and German CPI (06:45/09:00) around London open could break the range
US ADP and Core PCE (12:15/12:30 UTC) later in NY hours are the larger volatility risk
01:16 UTC
Range after late-NY rebound off lows · RSI 46 · price 1.13389
Tight Asian range capping a V-rebound off a false break of the YTD low.
After a USD-led slide on yields and Lagarde's hike pushback, price swept below the 1.1324 YTD low to 1.1311 and reclaimed it in a 20-pip late-NY squeeze. Asia is compressing between the asian low at 1.1334 and asian high at 1.1344, with price parked at the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1358–1.1311 leg. ATR has shrunk to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1344 asian high clears the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 1.1358 prior high
Failure at the 1.1334 asian low reopens the 1.1324 YTD low and 1.1311 sweep low
ECB Elderson at 02:20 UTC, then German retail sales and CPI from 06:00 UTC, could break the Asian range at London open
Quarter-end flows plus US ADP and Core PCE from 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through London/NY; false break under ytd low reclaimed, now tight Asian range.
Lagarde's pushback on October hike bets and a firm USD drove lower highs from the 1.1358 london high. A late-NY spike through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 sweep low was reclaimed within about an hour, capped near the 61.8% fib. Early Asia is compressing in a 10-pip range between the 1.1334 asian low and the 1.1344 asian high.
Support: 1.13338, 1.1324, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13437, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1334 asian low puts the 1.1324 ytd low back in play; a break of the 1.1311 sweep low would extend the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1344 asian high and 61.8% fib opens the 1.1358 london high
ECB Elderson 02:20 UTC, then German Retail Sales 06:00 and CPI prints 06:45/09:00 UTC could break the Asian range
Tight Asian range 1.1334–1.1344 under lower highs after a false break of 1.1325.
The NY-hours break of the 1.1325 YTD low zone to a 1.1311 swing low reversed with a 22-pip bar at 17:45 UTC. Since then the Asia session has held a 10-pip range between the 1.1334 range low and the 1.1344 Asian high, pinned at the 50–61.8% fib of the 1.1358–1.1311 drop and capped by the lower-highs line. The backdrop is a firm USD on US 10Y yields above 5.2%.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.1358 NY high
Failure to hold the 1.1334 range low reopens the 1.1311 swing low
Eurozone Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and the 06:45 CPI print at London open can break the Asian range
ADP at 12:15 UTC and US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC are the larger volatility risk for this read
Early Asia session is holding a narrow 1.1334–1.1344 Asian range, with price pressing the lower end and RSI(14) near 44. The range consolidates the late-NY rebound off the 1.1311 day low, a false break of the 1.1327 mid-session low after USD strength on 5.2%+ 10Y yields drove the earlier slide.
Support: 1.13338, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13437, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1334 asian low exposes the 1.1311 day low, with the fib 38.2% near 1.1331 in between
M15 close above the 1.1344 asian high reopens the 1.1358 london high
German Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and ADP/Core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, flat into Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.13393
Lower highs through London/NY, late-NY reclaim of YTD low, tight Asian range.
USD strength drove lower highs through London and NY, and a late-NY poke to the 1.1311 swing low below the 1.1324 YTD low reversed sharply back above it. Price is now compressing in a 10-pip Asian range at 1.1334–1.1344 (asian low to asian high), pinned at the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1358–1.1311 leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR under 4 pips.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1344 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.1358 ny open high
Loss of 1.1334 asian low puts the 1.1324 ytd low and 1.1311 swing low back in play; a hold below would negate the false break
EZ Retail Sales 06:00 UTC and EU-norm CPI 06:45 UTC around London open could break the Asian range
German HICP 12:00, ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Downtrend paused after reclaim of day low · RSI 54 · price 1.1340
Sweep below ytd low, V-reclaim, tight post-NY range 1.1334–1.1344.
London broke below the Asian range, and the USD-led slide on high US yields carried price through the 1.1325 ytd low to a day low at 1.1311 before a sharp 18:00 UTC reclaim. Price has since compressed between the 1.1334 range low and the 1.1344 range high, sitting on the 61.8% fib of the 1.1358 swing high to day low drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358, 1.1371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 range high opens the path to the 1.1358 swing high, with the 1.1371 asian high above
Loss of the 1.1334 range low re-exposes the 1.1325 ytd low and the 1.1311 day low
German Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and EU-norm CPI at 06:45 UTC could shift this read around London open